Op-Ed Contributors

Can America win by confronting

China?
By Francis C W Fung (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2010-02-25 17:20
Will America win in an all out confrontation with China? The reality is both sides will
lose. How much each side will lose? Which nation will recover more readily from the
loss suffered from such an unwise and unthinkable confrontation? Will our over
reach into another unnecessary cold war be productive? How essential is it for both
nations to reach harmony consensus for win- win development instead of
confrontation? America should have a public debate on this very urgent and
important subject so we are better prepared for the consequences of our
confrontational actions should we decide to embark on it.
Leaders of both nations are fully aware of the severe consequences of an avoidable
all out confrontation. But a public debate in America is needed so President Obama
will not be subjected to undue pressure from the public to provoke China to the point
of no return. American media still mire its mind in the past Cold War mentality as to
have not done the necessary task to educate American public about China
development. We are uninformed and under disillusion about how China could
progress so fast economically during the past three decades.

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Despite the fact that the 2008 global

financial crises was caused by
America, there has rarely been any
complaint from China. Chinese culture
is not known to be critical of others.
Fortunately Chinese leaders also read
Sun Zi and follow Deng Xiaoping’s
foreign policy teaching for China
-“Observe developments soberly,
maintain our position, meet challenges
calmly, hide our capacities and bide
our time, remain free of ambition,
never claim leadership” and avoid
serious confrontations. American
leaders are under pressure from the
public to confront China for the last half
century ever since the founding of the
People’s Republic of China. Our
citizens are constantly reminded by the
media that we have the best political
system and China must follow the
American model to develop (See
Martin Jacques, “When China Rules
the World”, 2010).
American media has vowed with
confidence that China now is more
dependent on American market. This
media driven misinformation served to
build up American confidence to
please the public. This misconception
of the public can be dangerous as to
force our leaders hands on too many
unnecessary confrontations with
China, as witnessed by our superior
than thou attitude on Internet Freedom,
sales of arms to Taiwan and Obama’s
meeting with Dalai Lama, despite
repeated warning from China. On
further analysis it is easy to show that
America is actually more dependent on
China as our banker to support out
twin deficits.

Americans think we won the Cold War

because of our superior ideology. Over
the years, we have convinced
ourselves that we are invincible. We
also are very proud that our military
power is supreme and that we are a
creative nation and lead the world in
technology. The truth is that our
business enterprise is competitive
because we have an early action in
industrial revolution and our most
endowed land attracts vast number of
talents who seek opportunities.
Ideology is very fickle. A nation can
change her ideology on a dime as we
witness China’s transformation. During
the last three decades of reform and
opening up she has proved that her
hybrid system of combined state
economy with market economy can
work quite well. Many foreign talents
that used to come from Europe, Japan,
China and India are now returning
home because economic opportunities
in their homelands are growing with
increased prosperity. This
phenomenon is well known as we saw
Japanese and Taiwanese scientists
and entrepreneurs returning home
during the latter part of last Century
and recently some Chinese and Indian
talents are doing the same.
If current American provocation is
unchecked there may come a point
that China will be forced to retaliate in
action by discontinuing to subsidize
our twin deficits. This reaction will most
likely lead to an all out confrontation.
The first to suffer will be American
consumers who will need to pay higher
prices for essential goods to maintain
our living standard. Next will be
American and Chinese businesses,
because 70 % of imports from China
are under joint venture management
with foreign companies making more
profit than that of Chinese business. It
may not be fun to watch the domino
effects of worldwide trade
protectionism and stock markets crash,
but it could happen like the 1929 world
depression. When this does occur
there is no telling who will be the
bigger loser.
Luckily the world will recover from the
next depression if it should occur
despite our efforts to prevent it. The
question is who will be more likely to
recover from it fastest? America has
never had a major calamity that took
place in our home land other than the
Civil War. China, however on the other
hand, during the last Century,
experienced the devastation of
numerous imperial wars of aggression,
the Japanese occupation, two major
civil wars, the Cultural Revolution and
the recent devastating Sichuan
earthquake. She has showed
remarkable resilience in recovering
from all those calamities. In addition,
as an ancient culture, she has shown
continuous unity for a long
uninterrupted history of five thousand
years.
As a dynamic young nation, America
does not have a deep rooted ancient
civilization as binding force. China is a
cultural state and not a political state.
China is more centralized and
cohesive as is demonstrated by her
developing pattern over the last three
decades and her fast recovery from
the last global economic crisis. (See
Martin Jacques, “When China Rules
the World”, 2010). As the world’s
manufacturing center, China certainly
will be the first to have the get up and
go to export consumer goods to the
rest of the developing world.
Remember in any depression, when
the stock market has crashed, cash is
king. Whereas America is currently
heavily in debt, China has two trillion
dollars of foreign currency reserve.
Adding the 700 billion from Hong
Kong, this will make 2.7 trillion. She
and other cash rich nations in Asia will
certainly recover much faster during
this potential depression than America,
even if they are not targeted to rise
already by most accounts.
History has ample documentations of
the 1929 global depression. It is
sufficient to conclude that at this time
of crisis, caution is the best part of
velour for both America and China not
to tempt fate. The most advisable
course of action is for America and
China both to continue cooperation
and reach Harmony Consensus. In a
joint effort between the most powerful
developed nation and the fastest
growing developing country, America
and China will both fulfill the
manifested destination of greatness,
bringing lasting peace and harmony to
the world. Harmony is the most
common value of human civilization
and Harmony Renaissance is the next
creative wave of energy mankind is
waiting for to lead us to the next level
of accomplishment beyond European
Renaissance.
The author is the General Director of
World Harmony Organization. The
opinions expressed are his own.