Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
JURNA L
Tahun 2007
DAFTAR ISI
ISSN: 1978-3116
ANOMALI OVERREACTION DI BURSA EFEK .............................(Rowland Bismark Fernando Pasaribu)
Vol. 5, No. 2 Juli 2011
JURNA L
Hal. 87-115
Tahun 2007
ABSTRACT
As reaction from market inefficient specified about information distribution, all market participant trying to
reduce the effect with various means, among other
things by perceiving historical behavior of share price.
One of result namely contrarian strategy by believing
that loser portfolio will experience of rebound conversely degradation at share winner portfolio. This
study aim to prove existency of overreaction anomaly
effect in Indonesia Stock Market specially the LQ-45
during 2003-2007. By using Debont-Thaler approach,
empirical result express that there is no symptom of
overreaction anomaly at three-month, six-month, and
annual period. Therefore the study recommend the investor to avoid contrarian strategy specially of LQ-45
stocks.
Keywords: market efficiency, overreaction, portfolio,
return, risk
PENDAHULUAN
Secara praksis, terdapat 2 kelompok partisipan pasar
yaitu partisipan rasional dan kuasi rasional. Kalau
partisipan pasar quasi rasional mendominasi di dalam
proses pengambilan keputusan pasar, maka
keseimbangan pasar rasional tidak akan tercapai.
Misalnya, kalau para analis berperilaku kuasi rasional
terkait dengan insentif ekonomi atau perilaku nonekonomis saat memprediksi earning, maka hasil
prediksinya akan menunjukkan pola yang sistematik
overreaction, underreaction, optimisme, atau
pesimisme seperti yang banyak dijelaskan dalam
literatur keuangan dan akuntansi.
Saat ini terdapat dua dasar penjelasan alternatif
untuk perilaku prediksi earning para analis, yang satu
berdasarkan respon terhadap insentif ekonomi dan
yang lainnya berdasarkan perilaku non-ekonomi.
Beberapa ahli berpendapat bahwa insentif ekonomi
dapat mempengaruhi prediksi earning analis karena
beberapa hal di antaranya hubungan underwriting
analis dan perusahaan yang diprediksi earning-nya,
perihal reputasi karir, atau manajememen earning pada
perusahaan yang dianalisis (Scharfstein dan Stein,
1990; Dechow, Hutton, dan Sloan, 1998; Michaely dan
Womack, 1999; Lim, 2001).
Penjelasan kelompok kedua digambarkan dari
perilaku ilmuwan dan praktisi yang menyarankan agar
investor jangan cenderung mengikuti teori statistik
mengenai prediksi, tetapi menggunakan probabilitas
subyektif pada suatu event, misalnya informasi earning yang tidak diharapkan untuk menentukan
responnya (Kahneman dan Tversky, 1972, 1973;
Tversky dan Kahneman, 1973; Einhorn dan Hogarth,
1985). Sejumlah literatur perilaku keuangan menyatakan
bahwa terdapat suatu tendensi pada perilaku analis
dan investor terhadap informasi earning yang tidak
diharapkan. Tendensi perilaku tersebut telah
diklasifikasikan sebagai overreaction, underreaction,
87
88
89
90
91
92
dimana:
ACARW,t = CARW,n,t
N
ACARL,t = CARL,n,t
N
dimana:
ACARW,t = average CAR portofolio winner pada
hari ke-t
HASIL PENELITIAN
Tabel 1 panel A memperlihatkan statistik deskriptif dari
return saham-saham yang menjadi variabel penelitian
Statistik deskriptif perlu dilakukan untuk memberikan
gambaran mengenai data yang tersedia. Berdasarkan
Tabel 1, dapat dilihat nilai mean yang menggambarkan
return saham serta standar deviasi yang
menggambarkan risiko. Nampak saham-saham yang
mengalami tingkat pengembalian tertinggi (mengalami
keuntungan) adalah saham PGAS sebesar rata-rata
0.0151202 perhari dengan tingkat risiko sebesar 0.3858,
diikuti urutan kedua saham BNBR sebesar rata-rata
0.0112771 dengan tingkat risiko sebesar 0.1719, sedang
tingkat pengembalian terendah atau mengalami
kerugian tertinggi adalah saham TSPC sebesar ratarata negatif 0.7975 perhari dengan tingkat risiko sebesar
0.0335, diikuti urutan kedua saham BMTR sebesar ratarata 0.0016933 dengan tingkat risiko sebesar 0.0375.
Risiko terendah diperoleh oleh saham BBCA sebesar
0.0251, diikuti urutan kedua saham AALI sebesar 0.0251,
sedangkan risiko tertinggi diperoleh oleh saham PGAS
93
94
95
96
terjadi gejala anomali overreaction di Bursa Efek Indonesia, khususnya saham yang tergabung dalam LQ-45
karena nilai t-hitungnya tidak memenuhi persyaratan
pada ke 3 hipotesis yang diajukan, yakni: 1) H1:ACARW,t
< 0 (Average CAR portofolio winner < 0); 2) ACARL,t >
0 (Average CAR portofolio loser > 0); dan 3) ACARL,t
ACARW,t > 0.
SIMPULAN DAN SARAN
Simpulan
Berdasarkan hasil pengolahan data dapat disimpulkan
bahwa gejala anomali overreaction tidak terjadi di Bursa
Efek Indonesia (BEI) pada seluruh periode (triwulan,
semester, dan tahunan) khususnya saham yang
tergabung dalam LQ-45. Dengan tidak terbuktinya
anomali overreaction di BEI khususnya pada saham
LQ-45 maka strategi kontrarian secara teoritis
menghasilkan pertimbangan risiko yang perlu dicermati
bagi investor dalam melakukan investasinya.
Keterbatasan
Penelitian ini memiliki keterbatasan, yaitu sampel yang
digunakan terbatas (hanya saham yang tergabung
dalam LQ-45) dan periode penelitian hanya 5 tahun
(2003-2007).
Saran
Berdasarkan keterbatasan penelitian tersebut, hasil
penelitian ini diharapkan dapat memberikan saran bagi
penelitian selanjutnya, yaitu memperluas sampel
penelitian pada sampel non LQ-45 dan periode
penelitian dan memperluas kriteria dalam pembentukan
portofolio pada kerangka strategi kontrarian, misalnya
kriteria book-to-market value saham dan aktif-pasif
dalam perdagangan.
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
Abarbanell, Jeffery S. 1991. Do analysts earnings forecasts incorporate information in prior stock price
changes? Journal of Accounting and Econom-
97
98
Howe, J.S. 1986. Evidence on Stock Market Overreaction. Financial Analyst Journal, July-August:
74-77.
Hughes, John S dan William E. Ricks. 1987. Associations between forecast errors and excess returns
near to earnings announcements, Accounting
Review, 42, 158-175.
Kahneman, Daniel dan Amos Tversky. 1972. Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness, Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430-454.
Kahneman, Daniel dan Amos Tversky. 1973. On the
psychology of prediction, Psychological Review, 80, 237-251.
Easterwood, John C dan Stacey R. Nutt. 1999. Inefficiency in analysts earnings forecasts: Systematic misreaction or systematic optimism?, Journal of Finance, 54, 1777-1797.
Einhorn, Hillel J dan Robin M. Hogarth. 1985. Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference,
Psychological Review, 92, 433-461.
La Porta, Rafael. 1996. Expectations and the crosssection of stock returns, Journal of Finance,
51, 1715-1742.
Lim, Terence. 2001. Rationality and Analysts Forecast Bias, Journal of Finance, 56, 369-385.
MacDonald, R dan Power, D.M. 1992. Persistency in
Stock Market Returns: Some Evidence using
high-frequency data. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, June:505-514.
MacDonald, R dan Power, D.M. 1993. Persistence in
the UK Market Returns: A Disaggregate Perspective. Applied Financial Economics,
March: 27-38.
Manurung, Adler Haymans dan Frederik Priotomo.
2005. Anomali Overreaction Di BEJ: Penelitian
Saham Tekstil, Retailer dan Wholesaler. Jurnal
Keuangan dan Perbankan, Vol.7, No.2
Desember: 109-130
99
100
Tabel 1
Deskripsi Statistik
Panel A, Return Saham
N
IHSG
AALI
ADHI
ADMG
ANTM
ASII
ASGR
BBCA
BBRI
BDMN
BLTA
BHIT
BMRI
BMTR
BNBR
BNGA
BNII
BRPT
BUMI
CMNP
CPRO
CTRA
ELTY
ENRG
KLBF
INDF
INKP
ISAT
KIJA
LSIP
MEDC
PGAS
PNBN
PTBA
SMCB
SULI
TINS
TKIM
TLKM
TOTL
TSPC
UNSP
UNTR
1214
1214
920
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1000
1214
1214
1214
1080
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
267
1214
1214
869
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
980
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
349
1214
1214
1214
Min
Max
Mean
Std. Dev
Skewness
Kurtosis
K-S Asymp.
Sig. (2-tailed)
-0.075
-0.0828
-0.7978
-0.1818
-0.8
-0.193
-0.1711
-0.4929
-0.0882
-0.1143
-0.4898
-0.1313
-0.1294
-0.7733
-0.4
-0.25
-0.1724
-0.3057
-0.2
-0.1648
-0.7879
-0.2045
-0.5
-0.1429
-0.5
-0.1207
-0.2083
-0.7994
-0.2143
-0.1192
-0.1523
-0.2332
-0.1
-0.1479
-0.1279
-0.3333
-0.156
-0.2069
-0.506
-0.1
-0.902
-0.7975
-0.2692
0.0697
0.186
0.35
0.3421
0.168
0.1036
0.3968
0.0824
0.4286
3.7872
0.1905
0.2941
0.1111
0.193
4.3333
8.7143
0.3333
0.4048
0.4444
0.2476
0.35
0.3333
0.5
0.5625
0.1333
0.2174
0.3167
0.1364
0.3
0.275
0.2157
12.0435
0.1111
0.1818
0.184
0.4167
0.2712
0.2931
0.1029
2.7629
0.0952
0.3171
0.2069
0.0016245
0.0026479
0.0020941
0.0011622
0.0028519
0.002013
0.0012469
0.0012496
0.0027529
0.0048167
0.0019279
0.0012806
0.0016933
0.000263
0.0112771
0.0095192
0.0021345
0.0041857
0.0058565
0.0018935
0.0009918
0.0030489
0.0061728
0.0031725
0.0017858
0.0015866
0.002025
0.0008761
0.0025241
0.0037094
0.0014988
0.0151202
0.0014544
0.0029485
0.0025571
0.0042825
0.0043222
0.0021661
0.0012043
0.0097074
-7.908E-06
0.0036171
0.0034471
0.0131
0.0251
0.0478
0.0384
0.0411
0.0256
0.0378
0.0251
0.0287
0.1124
0.0309
0.0307
0.0277
0.0375
0.1719
0.2562
0.0380
0.0535
0.0494
0.0303
0.0707
0.0472
0.0804
0.0364
0.0309
0.0280
0.0344
0.0326
0.0508
0.0342
0.0284
0.3858
0.0268
0.0310
0.0321
0.0465
0.0373
0.0361
0.0264
0.1506
0.0335
0.0449
0.0315
-0.4864
0.9082
-3.9629
1.4999
-5.7969
-0.3336
3.7923
-6.1539
3.3882
31.4771
-3.0212
1.8247
0.1697
-8.5333
13.5859
32.4001
1.5070
2.0169
2.2355
1.5738
-4.5235
1.6999
1.5641
5.0143
-3.2104
0.6254
1.2244
-12.0195
0.6856
1.5774
0.8897
31.0164
0.2281
0.3545
0.9522
1.3160
1.3265
1.1828
-5.6427
17.6575
-16.0338
-3.4984
0.1461
3.8467
4.0608
92.1382
13.3522
121.0084
4.1388
35.4631
123.4503
47.8300
1059.4789
55.9145
11.3935
2.4458
175.6610
330.6970
1101.5704
11.1891
11.7536
18.2923
10.4788
61.0122
11.0848
14.1484
67.4650
57.7488
4.0827
11.3701
299.2450
3.5087
8.8416
7.2688
967.9550
1.6190
3.6993
4.0642
22.3675
6.1906
9.6734
111.5791
323.6462
431.9340
88.6222
7.8191
7.085E-05
0
0
0
0
4.116E-05
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1.289E-07
0
0
0
0
101
102
1214
1214
920
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1000
1214
1214
1214
1080
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
267
1214
1214
869
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
979
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
1214
348
1214
1214
1214
Min
Max
Mean
Std. Dev
Skewness
Kurtosis
Sig. (2-tailed)
-0.075
-0.1486
-0.8105
-0.2199
-0.8073
-0.1844
-0.2089
-0.5016
-0.062
-0.1112
-0.4898
-0.1019
-0.1486
-0.7707
-0.3962
-0.2595
-0.1751
-0.3304
-0.2276
-0.1361
-0.8011
-0.2111
-0.4914
-0.1323
-0.5182
-0.0808
-0.1333
-0.8035
-0.2042
-0.1064
-0.1487
-0.218
-0.0825
-0.1039
-0.086
-0.3284
-0.1064
-0.1579
-0.5018
-0.0981
-0.9091
-0.8076
-0.2481
0.0697
0.1925
0.3304
0.3526
0.1918
0.1067
0.4038
0.0885
0.4324
3.7859
0.1905
0.2832
0.1925
0.19
4.3194
8.6886
0.3268
0.4036
0.4524
0.2213
0.3482
0.3427
0.5036
0.5585
0.1173
0.1727
0.2859
0.1381
0.2933
0.2745
0.2004
0.1697
0.0938
0.1669
0.1789
0.4102
0.254
0.2724
0.0618
0.081
0.1003
0.2891
0.1922
0.0016245
0.0010244
0.0005684
-0.0004621
0.001228
0.0003896
-0.0003783
-0.0003748
0.0011745
0.0031913
0.0019279
-0.0003446
0.0014849
-0.0013623
0.009652
0.007894
0.0005096
0.0025595
0.0042319
0.0002689
-0.0009322
0.0014255
0.004548
0.0015196
0.0001611
-3.946E-05
0.0004002
-0.0007499
0.0008984
0.002086
-0.0001257
0.0012815
-0.0001709
0.0013249
0.000934
0.0026582
0.0026984
0.0005404
-0.0004178
-0.0004178
-0.0016318
0.0019931
0.0018214
0.0131
0.0279
0.0436
0.0401
0.0425
0.0277
0.0389
0.0276
0.0239
0.1114
0.0309
0.0303
0.0278
0.0379
0.1705
0.2552
0.0351
0.0510
0.0469
0.0283
0.0683
0.0435
0.0780
0.0345
0.0278
0.0237
0.0304
0.0296
0.0481
0.0312
0.0253
0.0270
0.0221
0.0270
0.0281
0.0462
0.0338
0.0327
0.0207
0.0261
0.0326
0.0430
0.0267
-0.4864
0.5474
-5.5433
1.2101
-5.4497
-0.3667
3.3150
-4.9118
6.0362
32.3612
-3.0212
1.7366
0.6010
-8.1198
13.7907
32.5121
1.6331
2.3652
2.4978
1.8786
-5.1332
2.2492
1.7380
5.7542
-5.0011
0.6431
1.8093
-16.3157
0.8634
2.0578
1.2655
0.3922
0.4034
0.6822
1.5302
1.2940
1.7718
1.5749
-11.5182
0.1883
-17.7104
-4.2674
0.2170
3.8467
3.7917
137.8884
12.4963
109.3254
3.3815
31.8794
89.0315
105.8685
1099.4037
55.9145
10.0883
4.1228
163.4160
337.7213
1106.6375
13.0118
14.5126
21.9908
10.1285
74.3110
14.8880
15.7028
81.3790
99.4292
3.5961
12.8678
448.7093
3.9340
11.5146
9.3316
9.9684
1.4058
3.8136
5.8218
22.3532
7.2492
10.8279
280.7742
1.1844
495.6990
109.0477
10.8891
7.085E-05
6.257E-06
0
0
0
0.0678043
0
6.036E-06
1.59E-05
0
0
0
2.261E-05
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1.03E-06
0
0
0
0
0
2.786E-08
0.0008268
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1264454
0
0
0
Tabel 2
Cumulative Abnormal Return Rata-rata Saham Winner dan Looser per Triwulan
ACAR Portofolio Winner
Bulan 1
Bulan 2
Bulan 3
Triwulan 1
Triwulan 2
Triwulan 3
Triwulan 4
0.0520
0.0272
0.0210
0.0085
0.0133
0.0247
0.0447
0.0010
Triwulan 1
Triwulan 2
Triwulan 3
Triwulan 4
0.0234
0.0284
0.0071
0.0138
0.0247
0.1124
0.0007
0.0077
Triwulan 1
Triwulan 2
Triwulan 3
Triwulan 4
0.0010
0.0101
0.0007
0.0008
0.0156
0.0034
0.0045
0.0080
Triwulan 1
Triwulan 2
Triwulan 3
Triwulan 4
0.0018
0.0095
0.0072
0.0069
0.0120
0.0087
0.0068
0.0014
Triwulan 1
Triwulan 2
Triwulan 3
Triwulan 4
Rata-rata
Std.Dev
t-Hitung
Sig.t
0.0154
0.0102
0.0098
0.0125
0.013365
0.012291
4.863034
0.000108
0.0082
0.0155
-0.0023
0.0075
0.015925
0.025125
2.834621
0.010593
Tahun 2003
0.0215
0.0205
0.0000
0.0327
Tahun 2004
-0.0003
-0.0005
0.0177
0.0088
Tahun 2005
0.0573
0.0039
0.0085
0.0076
Tahun 2006
0.0031
-0.0009
0.0057
0.0156
Tahun 2007
0.0054
0.0099
0.0096
0.0045
0.01153
0.013838
3.726197
0.001432
-0.0006
-0.0039
-0.0052
-0.0027
-0.0016
-0.0043
-0.0019
-0.0026
-0.0116
-0.0012
-0.0034
-0.0001
0.0009
-0.0098
-0.0013
-0.0194
-0.0114
-0.0115
-0.0092
-0.0051
-0.0012
-0.0088
-0.0033
-0.0056
-0.0034
-0.0060
-0.0101
-0.0049
-0.0052
-0.0009
-0.0070
0.0009
-0.0057
-0.0049
-0.0038
-0.0014
-0.0027
-0.0069
-0.0071
-0.0072
-0.0027
-0.0058
-0.0113
-0.0023
-0.0021
-0.0105
-0.0104
-0.0081
-0.00519
0.003386
-6.84773
1.56E-06
-0.0040
-0.0019
-0.0050
-0.0088
-0.0055
0.004428
-5.5545
2.34E-05
-0.0041
-0.0034
-0.0031
0.0004
-0.00461
0.003769
-5.46443
2.85E-05
103
Tabel 3
Cumulative Abnormal Return Rata-rata Saham Winner dan Looser per Semester
ACAR Winner
Bulan 1 Bulan 2 Bulan 3 Bulan 4 Bulan 5 Bulan 6 Bulan 1
Mid_1
Mid_2
0.0525
0.0191
0.0141
0.0349
0.0130
0.0017
0.0215
0.0039
Mid_1
Mid_2
0.0196
0.0046
0.0137
0.0017
0.0008
0.0173
0.0130
0.0179
Mid_1
Mid_2
0.0021
0.0005
0.0174
0.0038
0.0515
0.0075
-0.0022
0.0071
Mid_1
Mid_2
0.0028
-0.0016
0.0098
0.0070
0.0000
0.0086
0.0094
0.0097
Mid_1
Mid_2
Rata-rata
Std.Dev
t-Hitung
Sig.t
0.0157
0.0064
0.012
0.016
2.383
0.041
0.0071
-0.0011
0.011
0.010
3.343
0.009
0.0008
0.0059
0.011
0.015
2.195
0.056
0.0080
0.0082
0.010
0.007
4.551
0.001
104
Tahun 2003
0.0203 0.0179
-0.0001 0.0282
Tahun 2004
0.1096 -0.0013
-0.0003 0.0039
Tahun 2005
-0.0006 0.0029
0.0061 0.0013
Tahun 2006
0.0087 -0.0022
0.0016 0.0114
Tahun 2007
0.0049 0.0105
0.0059 0.0047
0.016
0.008
0.034
0.010
1.469
2.573
0.176
0.030
ACAR Looser
Bulan 2 Bulan 3 Bulan 4
Bulan 5
Bulan 6
0.0007
-0.0032
-0.0036
-0.0041
0.0004
-0.0015
-0.0022
-0.0054
-0.0052
0.0005
-0.0044
-0.0023
-0.0124
0.0009
0.0015
0.0006
-0.0110
-0.0047
-0.0024
-0.0010
-0.0030
-0.0182
0.0007
-0.0010
-0.0010
-0.0021
0.0007
-0.0102
-0.0027
-0.0064
-0.0004
-0.0038
-0.0023
-0.0026
-0.0024
0.0007
-0.0008
-0.0033
-0.0026
-0.0060
-0.0043
-0.0115
-0.0045
0.0005
-0.0041
-0.0137
-0.0059
-0.0016
0.0011
-0.0045
-0.002
0.004
-1.950
0.083
-0.0028
-0.0042
-0.003
0.004
-2.766
0.022
-0.0035
-0.0020
-0.005
0.004
-3.812
0.004
-0.0073
-0.0066
-0.003
0.003
-3.952
0.003
-0.0002
-0.0073
-0.006
0.006
-2.963
0.016
-0.0047
-0.0021
-0.002
0.002
-3.314
0.009
Tabel 4
Abnormal Profit Per Triwulan dan Semester
Bulan 1 Bulan 2 Bulan 3
Tw
Tw
Tw
Tw
1
2
3
4
-0.0575
-0.0323
-0.0243
-0.0161
-0.0139
-0.0286
-0.0499
-0.0037
-0.0231
-0.0248
-0.0019
-0.0353
Tw
Tw
Tw
Tw
1
2
3
4
-0.0350
-0.0296
-0.0105
-0.0139
-0.0238
-0.1222
-0.0020
-0.0270
-0.0111
-0.0110
-0.0269
-0.0140
Tw
Tw
Tw
Tw
1
2
3
4
-0.0022
-0.0190
-0.0039
-0.0064
-0.0190
-0.0094
-0.0146
-0.0129
-0.0625
-0.0048
-0.0156
-0.0067
Tw
Tw
Tw
Tw
1
2
3
4
-0.0075
-0.0144
-0.0110
-0.0084
-0.0147
-0.0156
-0.0139
-0.0086
-0.0057
-0.0048
-0.0169
-0.0180
Tw 1
Tw 2
Tw 3
Tw 4
Rata-rata
Std.Dev
t-Hitung
Sig.t
-0.0175
-0.0207
-0.0202
-0.0206
-0.0186
0.0129
-6.4265
0.0000
-0.0122
-0.0175
-0.0027
-0.0163
-0.0214
0.0260
-3.6843
0.0016
-0.0095
-0.0133
-0.0127
-0.0041
-0.0161
0.0139
-5.1825
0.0001
Bulan 1 Bulan 2
Bulan 3 Bulan 4
Bulan 5
Bulan 6
-0.0237
-0.0255
-0.0223
-0.0031
-0.0093
0.0006
-0.0305
Tahun 2004
Mid_1 -0.0320 -0.0121
-0.0118
-0.0154
-0.1126
0.0021
Mid_2
-0.0012
-0.0220
-0.0189
-0.0180
-0.0049
Tahun 2005
Mid_1 -0.0032 -0.0167
-0.0541
0.0019
-0.0017
-0.0053
Mid_2
-0.0141
-0.0138
-0.0110
-0.0087
-0.0006
Tahun 2006
Mid_1 -0.0036 -0.0124
-0.0043
-0.0138
-0.0128
-0.0038
Mid_2
-0.0130
-0.0201
-0.0092
-0.0153
-0.0131
Tahun 2007
Mid_1 -0.0147 -0.0099
-0.0043
-0.0153
-0.0051
-0.0152
Mid_2
-0.0109
-0.0031
-0.0080
-0.0148
-0.0131
-0.0068
Rata-rata
Std.Dev
t-Hitung
Sig.t
-0.0146
0.0165
-2.8103
0.0204
-0.0139
0.0103
-4.2773
0.0021
-0.0154
0.0151
-3.2374
0.0102
-0.0130
0.0068
-6.0065
0.0002
-0.0212
0.0330
-2.0310
0.0728
-0.0100
0.0102
-3.1071
0.0126
Tahun 2003
Mid_1 -0.0518 -0.0176
-0.0126
Mid_2
-0.0390
-0.0223
-0.0037
-0.0026
-0.0016
105
Tabel 5
Cumulative Abnormal Return Rata-rata Saham Winner dan Looser serta Abnormal Profit Tahunan
ACAR Winner
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Rata2
t-Hitung
Sig.t
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Augst
Sept
Oct
Nov
ec
0.0563
0.0194
0.0021
0.0026
0.0110
0.0183
1.8246
0.1421
0.0145
0.0132
0.0032
0.0023
0.0068
0.0080
3.1840
0.0334
0.0109
-0.0002
0.0533
-0.0027
0.0005
0.0124
1.1776
0.3043
0.0213
0.0005
0.0025
0.0025
-0.0036
0.0046
1.0762
0.3424
0.0182
0.1109
-0.0055
0.0018
0.0077
0.0266
1.2425
0.2819
0.0168
-0.0001
0.0022
0.0011
0.0138
0.0068
1.9111
0.1286
0.0165
0.0025
0.0019
0.0043
0.0087
0.0068
2.5055
0.0664
0.0338
0.0004
0.0000
0.0062
-0.0037
0.0073
1.0791
0.3413
0.0012
0.0067
0.0061
0.0039
0.0073
0.0050
4.5050
0.0108
0.0004
0.0123
0.0070
0.0036
0.0062
0.0059
2.9914
0.0403
-0.0002
0.0025
0.0035
-0.0003
0.0082
0.0027
1.7626
0.1528
0.0226
0.0065
0.0022
0.0091
0.0010
0.0083
2.1419
0.0989
ACAR Looser
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Rata2
t-Hitung
Sig.t
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Augst
Sept
Oct
Nov
ec
0.0021
-0.0077
-0.0044
-0.0021
0.0043
-0.0016
-0.7204
0.5111
-0.0044
-0.0010
-0.0015
0.0012
0.0003
-0.0011
-1.1288
0.3221
0.0016
0.0011
0.0094
-0.0022
-0.0053
0.0009
0.3743
0.7272
-0.0028
-0.0055
-0.0037
-0.0046
-0.0080
-0.0049
-5.5166
0.0053
-0.0047
-0.0060
-0.0003
-0.0049
0.0019
-0.0028
-1.8343
0.1405
-0.0042
-0.0042
0.0000
-0.0026
-0.0007
-0.0023
-2.6884
0.0547
-0.0020
0.0016
-0.0031
-0.0024
-0.0046
-0.0021
-2.0474
0.1100
0.0014
0.0011
-0.0059
-0.0023
-0.0035
-0.0018
-1.3246
0.2559
-0.0045
-0.0037
-0.0083
-0.0128
-0.0010
-0.0061
-2.9561
0.0417
-0.0024
-0.0009
-0.0019
0.0006
-0.0056
-0.0020
-1.9865
0.1179
0.0015
-0.0054
-0.0002
-0.0135
-0.0077
-0.0051
-1.8794
0.1334
-0.0034
-0.0006
-0.0009
-0.0020
-0.0023
-0.0018
-3.6466
0.0218
Abnormal Profit
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Rata2
t-Hitung
Sig.t
106
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Augst
Sept
Oct
Nov
ec
-0.0542
-0.0271
-0.0065
-0.0047
-0.0068
-0.0199
-2.0873
0.1051
-0.0190
-0.0141
-0.0047
-0.0011
-0.0065
-0.0091
-2.7815
0.0497
-0.0093
0.0013
-0.0439
0.0005
-0.0058
-0.0114
-1.3698
0.2426
-0.0241
-0.0060
-0.0062
-0.0070
-0.0044
-0.0095
-2.6034
0.0598
-0.0229
-0.1170
0.0051
-0.0067
-0.0058
-0.0295
-1.3189
0.2576
-0.0210
-0.0041
-0.0023
-0.0037
-0.0145
-0.0091
-2.4768
0.0684
-0.0185
-0.0009
-0.0049
-0.0066
-0.0133
-0.0088
-2.8181
0.0479
-0.0324
0.0006
-0.0058
-0.0085
0.0002
-0.0092
-1.5146
0.2044
-0.0058
-0.0105
-0.0144
-0.0168
-0.0083
-0.0112
-5.5922
0.0050
-0.0027
-0.0132
-0.0089
-0.0031
-0.0118
-0.0079
-3.6552
0.0217
0.0016
-0.0080
-0.0037
-0.0133
-0.0158
-0.0078
-2.4826
0.0680
-0.0261
-0.0071
-0.0031
-0.0110
-0.0033
-0.0101
-2.3818
0.0758
Tabel 6
Hasil Uji Hipotesis
Periode
Bulan 1
Bulan 2
Bulan 3
Triwulan
ACAR
ACAR Abnormal
Winner Looser Return Periode
4.86
2.83
3.73
-6.85
-5.55
-5.46
-6.43
t-stat
Semester
ACAR
ACAR Abnormal
Winner Looser Return Periode
Bulan 1
2.38
-1.95
-2.81
Bulan 2
3.34
-2.77
-4.28
Bulan 3
2.19
-3.81
-3.24
Bulan 4
4.55
-3.95
-6.01
Bulan 5
1.47
-2.96
-2.03
Bulan 6
2.57
-3.31
-3.11
-3.68
-5.18
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mei
Jun
Jul
Augst
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
ACAR
Winner
1.82
3.18
1.18
1.08
1.24
1.91
2.51
1.08
4.51
2.99
1.76
2.14
Tahunan
ACAR Abnormal
Looser Return
-0.72
-1.13
0.37
-5.52
-1.83
-2.69
-2.05
-1.32
-2.96
-1.99
-1.88
-3.65
-2.09
-2.78
-1.37
-2.6
-1.32
-2.48
-2.82
-1.51
-5.59
-3.66
-2.48
-2.38
Keterangan:
1. H0 : ACARW,t = 0
H1 : ACARW,t < 0 (Average CAR portofolio winner < 0)
2. H0 : ACARL,t = 0
H1 : ACARL,t > 0 (Average CAR portofolio loser > 0)
3. H0 : ACARL,t ACARW,t = 0
H1 : ACARL,t ACARW,t > 0
Anomali Overreaction terjadi kalau ketiga hipotesis di atas terpenuhi.
107
Triwulan I 2003
0.40
1.00
0.35
0.80
0.30
0.25
0.60
w
T
iran
ul
Winner
Looser
0.20
CAR
CAR
0.20
0.40
0.15
Winner
0.10
Looser
0.05
0.00
-0.05 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64
0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61
-0.20
-0.10
-0.15
-0.40
Hari Obs
Hari Obs
Triwulan IV 2003
Triwulan II 2003
0.15
0.35
0.30
0.10
0.25
0.20
CAR
0.10
Winner
Looser
0.05
0.00
-0.05 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
CAR
0.05
0.15
Winner
Looser
0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55
-0.05
-0.10
-0.10
-0.15
Hari Obs
-0.20
Hari Obs
Gambar 1
Grafik Pergerakan CAR Periode
108
Triwulan I 2004
0.20
0.15
0.15
0.10
0.10
0.00
-0.05
Winner
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
Looser
CAR
CAR
0.05
0.05
Winner
Looser
0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61
-0.10
-0.05
-0.15
-0.10
-0.20
-0.25
-0.15
Hari Obs
Hari Obs
Triwulan II 2004
Triwulan IV 2004
2.50
0.10
2.00
0.05
0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
Winner
1.00
Looser
CAR
CAR
1.50
-0.05
Winner
Looser
-0.10
0.50
-0.15
0.00
-0.20
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
-0.50
-0.25
Hari Obs
Hari Obs
109
Triwulan I 2005
0.08
1.20
0.06
1.00
0.04
0.02
0.80
Winner
Looser
0.40
CAR
CAR
0.00
0.60
-0.02
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64
Winner
Looser
-0.04
-0.06
0.20
-0.08
0.00
-0.10
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
-0.12
-0.20
Hari Obs
Hari Obs
Triwulan IV 2005
Triwulan II 2005
0.07
0.10
0.06
0.08
0.05
0.06
0.04
0.03
Winner
0.02
Looser
CAR
CAR
0.04
0.02
Winner
0.01
Looser
0.00
0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61
-0.02
-0.01 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
-0.02
-0.04
-0.03
-0.04
-0.06
Hari Obs
110
Hari Obs
Triwulan I 2006
0.06
0.10
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.00
0.03
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61
-0.05
Winner
0.01
Looser
CAR
CAR
0.02
0.00
-0.01
Winner
-0.10
Looser
-0.15
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61
-0.20
-0.02
-0.25
-0.03
-0.30
-0.04
Hari Obs
Hari Obs
Triwulan IV 2006
Triwulan II 2006
0.07
0.08
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
Winner
Looser
0.00
CAR
CAR
0.04
Winner
0.02
Looser
0.01
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61
0.00
-0.01 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
-0.02
-0.04
-0.02
-0.03
-0.06
Hari Obs
Hari Obs
111
Triwulan I 2007
0.10
0.08
0.05
0.06
0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64
Winner
0.02
Looser
CAR
CAR
0.04
0.00
Winner
-0.05
Looser
-0.10
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61
-0.02
-0.15
-0.04
-0.06
-0.20
Hari Obs
Hari Obs
Triwulan II 2007
Triwulan IV 2007
0.15
0.10
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.05
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61
-0.05
Winner
Looser
CAR
CAR
0.04
0.00
Winner
0.02
Looser
0.00
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58
-0.10
-0.02
-0.15
-0.04
-0.20
-0.06
Hari Obs
112
Hari Obs
Semester I 2004
Semester I 2003
1.00
2.50
0.80
2.00
1.50
0.40
Winner
Looser
0.20
CAR
CAR
0.60
Winner
1.00
Looser
0.50
0.00
1
0.00
-0.20
17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 97 105 113
-0.50
-0.40
Hari Obs
Hari Obs
Semester II 2004
Semester II 2003
0.20
0.40
0.15
0.30
0.10
0.05
Winner
0.10
Looser
CAR
CAR
0.20
0.00
-0.05
Winner
1
Looser
-0.10
0.00
1
-0.10
-0.15
-0.20
-0.25
-0.20
Hari Obs
Hari Obs
Gambar 2
Grafik Pergerakan CAR Periode Semester
113
Semester II 2006
Semester I 2005
0.10
1.20
0.05
1.00
0.00
0.80
0.60
Winner
CAR
CAR
-0.05
Looser
0.40
17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 97 105 113
Winner
-0.10
Looser
-0.15
-0.20
0.20
-0.25
0.00
1
-0.30
-0.20
Hari Obs
Hari Obs
Semester I 2007
Semester II 2005
0.10
0.10
0.05
0.05
CAR
Winner
Looser
CAR
0.00
0.00
-0.10
-0.10
-0.15
Hari Obs
Semester I 2006
Semester II 2007
0.08
0.08
0.06
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.02
Winner
0.00
1
Looser
CAR
CAR
0.02
Winner
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
-0.04
-0.06
-0.06
-0.08
-0.08
Hari Obs
114
Winner
-0.15
Hari Obs
-0.02
Looser
-0.05
-0.05
Hari Obs
Looser
Gambar 3
Grafik Pergerakan CAR Periode Tahunan
Tahun 2003
1.00
0.80
CAR
0.60
0.40
Winner
Looser
0.20
0.00
1
-0.20
-0.40
Hari Obs
Tahun 2004
2.5
2.0
CAR
1.5
Winner
1.0
Looser
0.5
0.0
1
16 31 46 61 76 91 106 121 136 151 166 181 196 211 226 241
-0.5
Hari Obs
Tahun 2005
1.20
1.00
CAR
0.80
0.60
Winner
Looser
0.40
0.20
0.00
1
-0.20
Hari Obs
115