=+

CALCULO DE LA DEMANDA FUTURA

AOS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

CONSUMO
4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9

AOS X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Sumatoria

CONSUMO Y
4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
55
82

I) CALCULO DE PARAMETROS
Frmulas a utilizar:
= ^2
DATOS CALCULADOS:
X=
XY=
Y=
X^2=
Y^2=
N=
K=

55
510.90
82
385
716.42
10
2

= 82/100.72606060(
55/10) ^2

b=( ()())/
([(^2 )
( ) ^2])
b=(10(510.9) (55)
(82))/
([10(385)(55)^2])

a= 4.20666667

II) CALCULO DE r Y r^2

r=( ()())/
r=( ()())/
([(^2)][(^2 )
([(^2)][(^2 )
( ) ^2])
( ) ^2])
r= 0.99397355 (cifra que representa la certeza de la evaluacion
siendo su error 1-r)
r^2= 0.98798342 (coeficiente de determinacion)
III) PRUEBA F O ANALISIS DE VARIANZA
=(^2/(1))/
((1^2 )/())

=(0.98798342/(21))/
((10.98798342)/(102))

Prueba de hipotesis
Ho: 1=b=0
Ha: 2=b0
=
(1-)=
m=
n=

F= 657.747021

F(1,8)(0.95)=
Como:
Rechazamos la hiptesis
El parmetro b es significativ

IV) CALCULO DE LA VARIANZA DE LOS PARAMETROS

Var
()=((@)
)

Var ()=
() ^(1 ). ""
^2)

""
^2=(
^.)/
()

"e" ^.e= ^ Y
^(^Y)

Formulas matriciales que identificaremos de los parmetros:

^ Y=
^2

^=

(a , b)

^
Y=(()(
))

"e" ^.e= 716.42(4.2066667

0.7260606060) (82510.90)

( ^
) ^(1)=((10
55 )(55
385))^1

( ^ ) ^(1)=((
)(
^2 ))^1

"e" ^.e=
716.42715.885705
""
^2=0.531
4295/
(102)
=(((10
55 )(55
385)))/825

Var ()= ((0.4666667

0.06666666 )
(0.066666666
0.0121212))
(0.0664286875)

"" ^2=

0.0664286875
=((0.4666667
0.06666666 )
(0.066666666
0.0121212))
Var ()= ((0.0310000541
0.0044285791 )(0.044285791
0.0008051962))

X^2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
385

Y^2
23.04
31.36
42.25
53.29
65.61
72.25
82.81
96.04
108.16
141.61
716.42

b=( ()())/
([(^2 )
( ) ^2])
b=(10(510.9) (55)
(82))/
([10(385)(55)^2])
b= 0.72606061

de la evaluacion

a de hipotesis

0.05
(mide error tipo1)
0.95
g.l. en el numerador
g.l.en el denominador

XY
4.80
11.20
19.50
29.20
40.50
51.00
63.70
78.40
93.60
119.00
510.90

AOS (X)

DEMANDA
HISTORICA

DEMANDA
FUTURA

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

5.32

F R.C.
os la hiptesis
parmetro b es significativo estadisticamente.

e" ^.e= ^ Y
^(^Y)

n= tamao de muestra
k= N de variables incluidas la variable dependiente
e= errores del modelo muestral

) ^(1)=((
^2 ))^1

e=
2715.885705

"e" ^.e=
0.5314295

7
6)
666

((0.0310000541
285791 )(0.044285791
008051962))

Var (a)=
0.0310000541

Se (a)=
0.1760683223

Var (b)=
0.0008051962

Se (b)=
0.0283759792

DEMANDA

OFERTA

DEMANDA
INSATIFECHA (D-O)

4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
12.1933333
12.9193939
13.6454545
14.3715152
15.0975758
15.8236364
16.549697
17.2757576
18.0018182
18.7278788

0.8
1
1.2
1.5
1.9
2
2.8
3
3.5
3.9
1.785
1.829
1.93790909
2.04681818
2.15572727
2.26463636
2.37354545
2.48245455
2.59136364
2.70027273

4
4.6
5.3
5.8
6.2
6.5
6.3
6.8
6.9
8
10.408333333
11.090393939
11.707545455
12.32469697
12.941848485
13.559
14.176151515
14.79330303
15.410454545
16.027606061

DEMANDA
DIRIGIDA %
2
2.3
2.65
2.9
3.1
3.25
3.15
3.4
3.45
4
6.245
6.65423636
8.19528182
8.62728788
9.70638636
10.16925
10.6321136
11.5387764
12.3283636
12.8220848

AOS (X)

OFERTA

DEMANDA

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

0.8
1
1.2
1.5
1.9
2
2.8
3
3.5
3.9
1.785
1.829
1.93790909
2.04681818
2.15572727

4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
12.1933333333
12.9193939394
13.6454545455
14.3715151515
15.0975757576

=
0683223

=
3759792

16
17
18
19
20

AOS (X)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

2.26463636
2.37354545
2.48245455
2.59136364
2.70027273

DEMANDALINEAL
4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
12.193333333
12.919393939
13.645454545
14.371515152
15.097575758
15.823636364
16.54969697
17.275757576
18.001818182
18.727878788

OFERTA
0.8
1
1.2
1.5
1.9
2
2.8
3
3.5
3.9
1.785
1.829
1.93790909
2.04681818
2.15572727
2.26463636
2.37354545
2.48245455
2.59136364
2.70027273

15.8236363636
16.5496969697
17.2757575758
18.0018181818
18.7278787879

DEMANDASEMILOGARITMICA
4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
13.1720219617
14.4489475518
15.8496611957
17.3861631871
19.0716171555
20.9204628423
22.9485398102
25.1732231446
27.6135723113
30.2904944438

CURVA DEMANDA-OFERTA POR EL

METODO LINEAL

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

6
4
2
0
1

DEMANDALOGARITMICA
4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
11.0123088176
11.2880446399
11.541697008
11.7765424195
11.9951782671
12.1996984438
12.3918156189
12.5729485097
12.744285526
12.906832071

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

CURVA DEMANDA-OFERTA POR EL

METODO LINEAL ,SEMILOGARITMICO Y
LOGARITMICO
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1

10

11

12

13

14

OFERTA
DEMANDA

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

ERTA POR EL
OGARITMICO Y
CO

DEMANDA-LINEAL
OFERTA
DEMANDA-SEMILOGARITMICA
DEMANDA- LOGARITMICA

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

CALCULO DE LA DEMANDA FUTURA

AOS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

CONSUMO
4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9

I) CALCULO DE PARAMETROS
Frmulas a utilizar:
= ^X
= 8.986417194/10
0.040183768555/10
X=
Y=
X^2=
logY=
XlogY=
logY^2=
N=

55
82
385
8.986417194
52.740455470
8.212641607
10

a=

a= 0.6776309927
4.7602634933

Entonces: Y=4.760263493(1.096942261)^x

II) CALCULO DE R Y R^2

r=( ()())/
([(^2 ) () ^2]
[(^2 )( ) ^2])
r=(10 (52.740455470 55(8.986417194))/
([10(385)( 55 ^2)][10(8.212641607)
( 8.986417194) ^2])
r= 0.9858320498

r^2=

III) PRUEBA F O ANALISIS DE VARIANZA

=(^2 ())/
((1^2 )/(1))

=(0.97186483/(102))/
((10.97186483)/(21))

=(^2 ())/
((1^2 )/(1))

=(0.97186483/(102))/
((10.97186483)/(21))

F= 276.34163122

IV) CALCULO DE LA VARIANZA DE LOS PARAMETROS

Var ()= (^
) ^(1 ). "" ^2)

""
^2=(
^.)/
Formulas matriciales que identificaremos de los parmetros:
()
( ^ ) ^(1)=((
)(
^2 ))^1

^ Y=

^2

"e" ^.e= ^ Y
^(^Y)

^
Y=(()(
))

"e" ^.e= 8.212641697(0.6776309927 +

0.0401837685) (8.9864(1.7194@52.7404@55.47))

"e" ^.e= 8.212641697(6.0894747798 +

2.110310227
""
^2=(
^2=0.003856
^.
582/(102)
)/
()

""
^2=0.000482072
75

( ^ ) ^(1)=((0.4666666667 0.0666666666 )
(0.0666666660.0121212121))^1
Var ()= ((0.4666666667
0.06666666 )
(0.066666666
0.0121212))
(0.00048207275)
Var (log/log ) )= ((0.000229967283
0.0002113813301)(0.00003213813301
0.000005843296911))" "
Var( log a) =0.000224967283
Se(log a) = 0.014996899
Var( log b) =0.00000564329691
Se(log b) = 0.00217229819
Covar(log a, log b)= Covar(log b, log a) = -0.00003213813301

* El logaritmo del valor a estimado vara en 0.014998899 unidades del verdadero val
* El logaritmo del valor b estimado vara en 0.00241723unidades del verdadero valor
* La covarianza entre los logaritmos d los estimadores es de -0.00003213813301

V) PRUEBAS t LOS PARAMETROS POBLACIONES:

PUEBRA t PARA EL PARAMETRO =A
Ho: A=0
Ha: A0
=()/
(())=(0.67763099270)/0.014
998899
En la tabla:
t n-2)
t 0.025=2.306

=45.17871558

=2.306

Como t R.C.
Rechazamos la Ho

PUEBRA t PARA EL PARAMETRO =B

Ho: B=0
Ha: B0
=()/
(())=(0.04018376850)/0.002
417229819
En la tabla:
t n-2)
t 0.02518=2.306
Como t R.C.
Rechazamos la Ho

=2.306

=16.62389786

=.^

AOS X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

CONSUMO Y
4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9

X^2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100

log Y
0.68124124
0.74818803
0.81291336
0.86332286
0.90848502
0.92941893
0.95904139
0.99122608
1.01703334
1.07554696

b'=( ()(
))/([(^2 )( )
^2])
b=(10(52.74045547) (55)
(8.986417194))/
([10(385)(55)^2])
b= 0.0401837685
b= 1.096942261

63493(1.096942261)^x

0.97186483

483/(102))/
6483)/(21))

Prueba de hipotesis

X log Y
0.68124124
1.49637605
2.43874007
3.45329144
4.54242509
5.57651355
6.71328975
7.92980861
9.15330005
10.7554696

log Y^2
0.46408962
0.55978532
0.66082813
0.74532636
0.82534503
0.86381954
0.91976039
0.98252913
1.03435681
1.15680127

b= antilog(0.0401837685)

483/(102))/
6483)/(21))

Ho: 1=b=0
Ha: 2=b0
= 0.05
(1-)= 0.95
F(m,n)()
F(1,8)(0.95)=5.32
Como: F R.C.
Rechazamos la hiptesis
El parmetro b es significativo estadisticamente.

"e" ^.e= ^ Y
^(^Y)

^
Y=(()(
))

"e" ^.e=
0.003856582

^= (a ,

b)

9 unidades del verdadero valor poblacional

unidades del verdadero valor poblacional B
s de -0.00003213813301

=45.17871558
0.95

0.025

0.025
2..306

RA

2..306

6.62389786
0.95

0.025

0.025
2..306

RA

2..306

DEMANDA
HISTORICA

DEMANDA
FUTURA

AOS (X)

DEMANDA

OFERTA

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
13.172022
14.4489476
15.8496612
17.3861632
19.0716172
20.9204628
22.9485398
25.1732231
27.6135723
30.2904944

0.8
1
1.2
1.5
1.9
2
2.8
3
3.5
3.9
1.97580329
2.16734213
2.37744918
2.60792448
2.86074257
3.13806943
3.44228097
3.77598347
4.14203585
4.54357417

AOS (X)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

DEMANDA INSATIFECHA
(D-O)

4
4.6
5.3
5.8
6.2
6.5
6.3
6.8
6.9
8
11.1962186675
12.2816054191
13.4722120163
14.7782387091
16.2108745822
17.782393416
19.5062588386
21.3972396729
23.4715364646
25.7469202772

OFERTA
DEMANDA
0.8
4.8
1
5.6
1.2
6.5
1.5
7.3
1.9
8.1
2
8.5
2.8
9.1
3
9.8
3.5
10.4
3.9
11.9
1.97580329 13.1720219617
2.16734213 14.4489475518
2.37744918 15.8496611957
2.60792448 17.3861631871
2.86074257 19.0716171555
3.13806943 20.9204628423
3.44228097 22.9485398102
3.77598347 25.1732231446
4.14203585 27.6135723113

20

4.54357417

30.2904944438

DEMANDA
DIRIGIDA %
2
2.3
2.65
2.9
3.1
3.25
3.15
3.4
3.45
4
6.7177312
7.36896325
9.43054841
10.3447671
12.1581559
13.3367951
14.6296941
16.6898469
18.7772292
20.5975362

35
30
25
20
OFERTA
15

DEMANDA

10
5
0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

CURVA DEMANDA-OFERTA POR

EL METODO SEMILOGARITMICO

7 18 19 20

OFERTA
DEMANDA

DEMANDA
HISTORICA

DEMANDA
FUTURA

AOS (X)

DEMANDA

OFERTA

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
11.0123088176
11.2880446399
11.541697008
11.7765424195
11.9951782671
12.1996984438
12.3918156189
12.5729485097
12.744285526
12.906832071

0.8
1
1.2
1.5
1.9
2
2.8
3
3.5
3.9
1.65184632
1.6932067
1.73125455
1.76648136
1.79927674
1.82995477
1.85877234
1.88594228
1.91164283
1.93602481

AOS= X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-

DEMANDA= Y
4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
82

Xi

Calculo de c
calculo de d

-1.0771561223
0.3155606561

0
0.69314718
1.09861229
1.38629436
1.60943791
1.79175947
1.94591015
2.07944154
2.19722458
2.30258509
15.1044126

4
4.6
5.3
5.8
6.2
6.5
6.3
6.8
6.9
8
9.3604624949
9.5948379439
9.8104424568
10.0100610566
10.195901527
10.3697436772
10.5330432761
10.6870062332
10.8326426971
10.9708072603

DEMANDA
DIRIGIDA %
2
2.3
2.65
2.9
3.1
3.25
3.15
3.4
3.45
4
5.616277497
5.7569027663
6.8673097197
7.0070427396
7.6469261453
7.7773077579
7.8997824571
8.3358648619
8.6661141577
8.7766458083

Xi*Yi

yi^2

DEMANDA INSATIFECHA
(D-O)

0
3.8816242111
7.1409798763
10.1199488362
13.0364470907
15.2299554884
17.7077823564
20.3785271085
22.8511356043
27.4007626066
137.7471631786

Y=(Xi- c)/d

23.04
31.36
42.25
53.29
65.61
72.25
82.81
96.04
108.16
141.61
716.42

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1

Column D
Column E

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Column D
Column E

AOS (X)

DEMANDALINEAL

OFERTA

DEMANDASEMILOGARI
TMICA

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
12.1933333
12.9193939
13.6454545
14.3715152
15.0975758
15.8236364
16.549697
17.2757576
18.0018182
18.7278788

0.8
1
1.2
1.5
1.9
2
2.8
3
3.5
3.9
1.785
1.829
1.93790909
2.04681818
2.15572727
2.26463636
2.37354545
2.48245455
2.59136364
2.70027273

4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
13.172022
14.4489476
15.8496612
17.3861632
19.0716172
20.9204628
22.9485398
25.1732231
27.6135723
30.2904944

DEMANDALOGARITMIC
A
4.8
5.6
6.5
7.3
8.1
8.5
9.1
9.8
10.4
11.9
11.0123088
11.2880446
11.541697
11.7765424
11.9951783
12.1996984
12.3918156
12.5729485
12.7442855
12.9068321

CURVA DEMANDA-OFERTA POR EL

METODO LINEAL ,SEMILOGARITMICO Y
LOGARITMICO
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

ERTA POR EL
OGARITMICO Y
CO

DEMANDA-LINEAL
OFERTA
DEMANDA-SEMILOGARITMICA
DEMANDA- LOGARITMICA

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20