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J.O.E. 2010

J.O.E. 2010

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READY FOR TODAY. PREPARING FOR TOMORROW.

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The Joint Operating Environment is intended to inform joint concept development and experimentation throughout the Department of Defense. It provides a perspective on future trends, shocks, contexts, and implications for future joint force commanders and other leaders and professionals in the national security field. This document is speculative in nature and does not suppose to predict what will happen in the next twenty-five years.
READY FOR TODAY. PREPARING FOR TOMORROW.

ABOUT

THIS

STUDY

The Joint Operating Environment is intended to inform joint concept development and experimentation throughout the Department of Defense. It provides a perspective on future trends, shocks, contexts, and implications for future joint force commanders and other leaders and professionals in the national security field. This document is speculative in nature and does not suppose to predict what will happen in the next twenty-five years.

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Published by: James Allen Isaacs Jr. on Mar 23, 2010
Direitos Autorais:Attribution Non-commercial

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04/02/2014

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The European Union has solidifed Europe economically to a degree not seen since the Roman Empire.
For the next quarter century, Europe will exercise considerable clout in economic matters. The Union’s
economy as a whole by the 2030s will likely be greater than that of the United States. From a security
standpoint, the NATO alliance will have the potential to feld substantial, world-class military forces and
project them far beyond the boundaries of the continent, but this currently seems a relatively unlikely
possibility, given demographic shifts between native-born Europeans and immigrants from the Middle
East and Southwest Asia. Europe is undergoing a major cultural transformation, making it less willing to
project military power into likely areas of confict.

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Perhaps this will change with the recognition of a perceived threat. The next 25 years will provide two
good candidates: Russia and continued terrorism fueled by global violent extremism. Russia has been
discussed already in this document. The Baltic and Eastern European regions will likely remain fashpoints
as a number of historical issues such as ethnicity or the location of national boundaries, which have led to
confict in the past, continue to simmer under the surface. Russian efforts to construct a gas pipeline to
Western Europe under the Baltic Sea rather than a less costly land route through Eastern Europe suggests
a deliberate aim to separate the Central and Western European NATO countries from the Baltic and
Eastern European members of NATO.

Continued terrorist attacks in Europe might also spark a popular passion for investing in military forces.
Should violent extremists persist in using this tactic to attack the European continent with increasing
frequency and intensity, there might be a response that includes addressing this threat on a global scale
rather than as an internal security problem.

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