Student Name: Jordan Heaps

Title: The Complex Relationship between Weather and Dengue Virus

Transmission in Thailand
Introduction: The dengue virus causes more human death than any other
insect-borne virus in the world causing an estimated 390 million infections
annually. Thailand has experienced more dengue outbreaks in the last couple
of decades than any other country and goes through seasonal cycles of
outbreaks every year. Field and lab studies have shown that there is a
correlation between weather and specific aspects of the insect cycle,
especially that of the mosquito, in Thailand, which led this investigation of
how the two coincide to produce such large epidemics in climates that are
similar to that of Thailands.
Reason for research: The purpose of this examination was to study the
spread of disease and weather data spanning 72 provinces in Thailand over a
period of 228 months (19 years) to examine how the weather affects the
dynamics of mosquitoes and how people of those provinces can be more
prepared for the seasonal cycles where mosquitoes are most prevalent.
Materials and methods: The number of dengue cases from 1983-2001 was
provided from the Thailand Ministry of Public Health, as well as the
population data from the Thailand National Statistics Office to evaluate
incidence rates. Weather data, which includes temperature, humidity, and
rainfall, were developed from daily records of 84 principal and 996 secondary
weather stations in Thailand. An epidemic assessment tool was developed in

order to compare the transmission of the disease and weather conditions

over a large period of seasonal cycles. A total of 1,368 seasonal cycles were
examined. Each cycle was split into four different change-point phases in
disease transmission: Quiet phase, which is a period of minimal cases;
Development Phase, which is an increase of transmission cases due to the
rise of reproduction rate of mosquitos; Peak Plateau Phase, which is where
the number of cases are at the highest of the seasonal cycle; and Decline
Phase, which is when the number of transmission cases is on the decline.
The 1,368 cycles were broken up into 4 groups in accordance to the
incidence rates per seasonal cycle. The Thailand provinces were also broken
up into nine geographical zones according to the weather to aid with the end
results.
Results: Dengue transmission was highly sensitive to specific yet small
changes in weather conditions. The small change difference in timing and
weather at the Peak phase in the largest epidemics may define optimum
weather requirements for supporting highest levels of transmission in
Thailand.
From 1983-2001, 1.2 million cases of dengue were reported in Thailand. 80%
of the dengue cases occurred within 27-29.5 Celsius and 90% of cases
occurred within 26-30.5 Celsius. Within the optimal temperature range, 80%
of cases occur above 75% mean humidity. It was observed that the highest
temperatures are not associated with highest incidence rates, which is likely
due to that highest temperatures often occur when humidity is low, which

affects the life of adult mosquito causing them to die earlier in their life
cycle. In all geographical zones, highest incidence rates were seen when
both temperature and humidity were optimal. Larger epidemics began earlier
during a period of weaker support from humidity but not temperature. The
largest epidemics peak slightly earlier at higher temperatures and lower
humidity. Highest humidity conditions extend the temperature window in
which transmission is likely to occur.
Discussion:

The seasonal transmission cycle change-points and phases

were effective in grouping the structure of seasonal cycles, isolating

differences, and assessing the role of weather in epidemics. Seasonal
change-points in dengue transmission are related to change-points in
weather dynamics and are highly sensitive to small temperature and
humidity changes.
Higher humidity in conjunction with optimal temperature may increase
abundance of mosquitoes. Interaction between temperature and humidity is
closely linked and is central to transmission. Being able to recognize the
Quiet Phase is critically important, since that is what will determine whether
or not there will be a large epidemic. It should be carefully monitored to
target interventions and produce prevention.
Conclusion: This study demonstrates how weather can have a large impact
in dengue transmission not only in Thailand, but also in other areas of the
world where the climate is similar. It also brings to light that there are
different phases the weather that is related to transmission rates so that

precaution and prevention tactics can be put in place to reduce transmission

and mortality rates throughout the world.

Bibliography: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3854883/