Running Head: ANALYTICS IN K12 EDUCATION

Examining Trends of Predictive Analytics in K-12 Education

Andrew Southwell
Saginaw Valley State University
ETD 549
August 16, 2014

Running Head: ANALYTICS IN K12 EDUCATION

Introduction
Accountability seems to be a current trend in education. With this accountability comes a
deal of uncertainty from school administration and teachers, therefore, any tool that could help
predict educational outcomes and anticipate gaps in learning would be a very welcome tool. It is
because of this predictive nature that analytics could be seen as a tool for assisting education and
school districts. It is entirely common today for businesses to use analytics for a variety of
reasons, one of which is to anticipate consumers purchasing desires and to target them with
products and advertisements that fit these. Businesses have used the model of predictive
analytics in an attempt to become more profitable and it seems to be successful for many.
Many in education are attempting to piggyback off of this success by endeavoring to
apply these principals and technology to education. In many ways teachers and others in
education have always applied the basic if-then logic of predictive analytics in order to predict
what will happen based on personal experience. Any teacher could tell you that if a student
misses class a certain number of times that puts them closer to failing a course. This is predictive
analytics in simplicity, however, technology can help not only to look at the correlations between
two data points, but many. It can also help to look at not only one student one year, but many
students many years simultaneously.
Although there are some definitive limitations to the application of analytics in education
there are also a great deal of potential benefits. In addition, the permeation of technology into
education and throughout the lives of students is also assisting in making this an easier and more
viable tool to be considered more closely by those in education. The more that school districts
are using online learning, technology-based assessment, data warehouses, and digitized personal
records, the more information is available to store, track, and analyze.

Running Head: ANALYTICS IN K12 EDUCATION

Literature Review
The proliferated use of analytic technology began in the business sphere. Companies like
Target, Amazon, and Facebook have long used consumer behavior to make predictions about
each individual consumer that could lead to financial success. The use of predictive analytics
allows them to create targeted advertising based on anticipated wants or needs. It can also allow
companies like Target and Amazon to select products the consumer may like to purchase based
on previous purchasing history and print coupons specific to the consumers buying habits.
Amazon is even working on a way to send customers products they think they might want to buy
before the customer has even ordered that product (Fitzpatrick , 2014). Oakland Athletics has
used analytics to predict athletic performance for its recruiting process (Yuan , n.d.). By
examining statistics for players they can make predictions as to which athletes will demonstrate
the most growth in performance at the lowest cost to the organization. It is this type of
performance prediction that lends itself to the use in education as we see analytics in education
today.
Just like in the business model, there are a variety of goals driving the use of predictive
analytics in education. Many of those goals vary as well based on the desired emphasis of the
outcome of the data. The major differences are that one emphasis is of the predictive nature
while the other focuses on determining actionable insights (Yuan , n.d.). Goals of predictive
analytics are obviously more akin to the predictive nature of data.
Most of the outcome goals of examining data for K-12 schools target student
performance and success. School can use the data they gather from students and assessments to
predict early dropout warning signs (Sparks, 2011). This is often factored based on student
attendance, failure, and behavior. This data can then be used to offer dropout prevention

Running Head: ANALYTICS IN K12 EDUCATION

interventions. Less severely, students can be monitored, almost in real time, as to whether or not
they are on track for graduation. It can make predictions as to how ready a student is for college
or a career (Rethinam, 2014). These are already proving valuable for select K-12 schools,
colleges, and universities that are using these models.
Another way that data analysis is helping school is through the teacher selection process.
By using indicating factors of teachers, schools are able to better place teachers based on their
skills and strengths and are able to select the best new teachers for the school and placements
based on predetermined factors (Rethinam, 2014).
How is this accomplished? Implementation of a predictive data system requires a great
deal of resources, staff, information, and infrastructure. Adequate staff is required to input and
interpret data. Staff must be properly trained in data entry, interpretation, and interventions. It is
recommended that an automated dashboard (Rethinam, 2014) is created so that teachers can
easily access real-time data about each student. The implementing organization needs to have
access to vast data warehouse capabilities, predictive modeling software, and predictive analyst
researchers (Rethinam, 2014) who are familiar with education.
After the set-up has been concluded the process begins with the data. For each student
within the system, many data points need to be collected. Data should be collected for factors
including: benchmarking and summative assessments, behavior, attendance, and health (Sparks,
2011).
Next, the data will need to be analyzed. For example, schools may be looking for a
correlation between attendance and school success. Many schools look for trends that are leading

Running Head: ANALYTICS IN K12 EDUCATION

to high school graduation rates. One school, Hamilton County Schools in Chattanooga, TN,
found a link between failure in the early grades and later dropout rates (Sparks, 2011).
Once a negative trend was established, the administration or educator will look at
preventative interventions. For example, in Hamilton County the correlation between failure in
the early grades and increased dropout rates lead to more intensive monitoring and remediation
for students at risk of failing an early grade (Sparks, 2011). The data is used to develop actions
that can be taken to prevent the current trends.
Many school districts are also using an online learning model or a hybrid learning model
that may make using predictive analytics fairly uncomplicated for individual instructors. A
learning management system (LMS) already collects a great deal of information about students.
It collects profile information and records activities on the site, like reading, writing,
collaboration, and test-taking. A LMS generates huge amounts of this data daily, so much so that
it would be impossible for the instructor to easily interpret the raw data (Romero, Ventura, &
Garcia, 2007).
It is possible to harness this data and create a visual representation of the data by using a
tool like GISMO (Romero, Ventura, & Garcia, 2007). GISMO extracts tracking data from
Moodle and generate a graphical representation that can be explored by course instructors
(Romero, Ventura, & Garcia, 2007). By taking a look at the bigger picture educators can then
more easily identify trends in learning based on the use of the learning site. It can tell them
which resources are being utilized and which are not. Through this, educators can also attempt to
find correlations between data points; this is called association rule mining (Romero, Ventura, &
Garcia, 2007). It can indicate what factors, for example interaction with peers, leads to more

Running Head: ANALYTICS IN K12 EDUCATION

success with the learning site. This can allow instructors to make predictions about the outcome
of students based on their behavior on the site and make recommendations for improvement.
Body
Predictive analytics shows great promise in that it helps educators to develop a plan of
action to address problems within the school system. Not only does it assist with noting trends
that may be more difficult to spot on an annual basis, but it can also process a greater number of
students. It can demonstrate formulas for success that can be duplicated by students.
There are some limitations to this system, however. A major problem in is getting
qualified staff. There is not a great number of predictive researchers that specialize in education
and many would not consider education as opposed to another career opportunity. Teachers and
other staff would then either need to be trained in interpretation of data or would need to be
trained to use a more user-friendly software system. Schools would need to purchase this
software for staff.
There are also concerns about data. It is necessary that there a many data points
available for each student. Some examples would be course grades, attendance, extracurricular
activities, behavior, suspensions, and health (Sparks, 2011). Not only this, but there should also
be a great span of years of which the data was taken for each students. It is only through
examining this big data that meaningful concerns can be identified.
Lastly, there are a number of other factors that could potentially influence student success
that would not be measured with the data, for example, parents attitude toward education. This
could make it more difficult to build interventions for specific students. It is important, therefore,
that a predictive system runs alongside the school staffs recommendations for student success.

Running Head: ANALYTICS IN K12 EDUCATION

The data system should work both together and unilaterally to catch students that may not be
identified by the other system. School staff should be allowed to bypass the data system and
recommend students for help before they are identified by the data system. Data is not intended
to replace school staff, but to work with them.
Regardless of the limitations, many see predictive analytics as a core element of public
education in the near future (Fitzpatrick , 2014). It offers many opportunities for educators to
attempt to look into the future and identify problems before they occur. Once the problem has
been identified it can be possible to set aside funds or resources to help address the issue before it
becomes an even larger problem for a school system.
When done correctly a predictive system can serve to alleviate some pressure from
school staff. It should be designed in a way that helps to identify problems early and work to
build proactive solutions to those problems. It can make the process of locating these problems
for students much more efficient.
Conclusion
There is great potential in a system the promises to make education more efficient. Just as
predictive analytics has assisted the business world in better targeting consumers and attempting
to anticipate their need. The technology could also help to anticipate the needs of students and
educators. Obviously there are some major differences between the use of predictive analytics in
business as opposed to education. This may be why it is not as readily received by the education
sector as it currently is by the business sector. However, as more research and experience of
analytics in education become more available, we may certainly see a rise in its use in education.

Running Head: ANALYTICS IN K12 EDUCATION

Although there are some problems and limitations with using predictive analytics in K-12
education, there are also many promising developments there. The data is already being collect
in many ways. Many districts and regional ISDs already house a large data-warehouse of student
test scores. Many schools already have some sort of database that houses demographic data
about each student. School are required by the state to collect and report this data about the
students. Therefore, utilizing this data in a predictive system may be easier than some may think.

Running Head: ANALYTICS IN K12 EDUCATION

References
Evans, A., Martin, K., & Poatsy, M. (2014). Technology in Action (10th ed.). Upper Saddle River,
New Jersey : Pearson Education.
Fitzpatrick , J. (2014, Fall). Emerging Technoloy: Predictive Analytics and Graphene. MACUL
Journal, 35(1), 8-9.
Rethinam, V. (2014, June 12). Predictive Analytics in K-12: Advantages, Limitations &
Implementation. Retrieved from THE Journal :
http://thejournal.com/articles/2014/06/12/predictive-analytics-in-k-12-advantageslimitations-implementation.aspx
Romero, C., Ventura, S., & Garcia, E. (2007). Data Mining in Course Management Systems.
Retrieved August 10, 2014, from
http://maxwell.sju.edu/~jz570129/CSC792/ICWL/reference/data-mining-in-coursemanagement-system-moodle-case-study-and-tutorial.pdf
Sparks, S. (2011). Schools Find Uses for Predictive Data Techniques. Education Week, 30(36).
Retrieved August 10 , 2014, from
http://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2011/06/22/36analytics.h30.html
Yuan , L. (n.d.). Learning Frontiers. Retrieved August 10, 2014, from Will Analytics Transform
Education?: http://www.learningfrontiers.eu/?q=story/will-analytics-transform-education