MEASUREMENT IN PHYSICAL EDUCATION AND EXERCISE SCIENCE, 2(3), 165-176 Copyright © 1998, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, lnc. Utilizing Regression Analysis to Evaluate Running Economy Nestor W. Sherman Department of Health and Kinesiology Texas A&M University-Kingsville Andrew S. Jackson Department of Health and Human Performance University of Houston Previous investigators evaluated running economy (RE) with participants running at the same speed by examining the oxygen consumption (VO,) variance. This study was designed to examine the influence of running speed (RS), exercise intensity, body composition, stride length, and gender on RE. Physical characteristics (mean + standard deviation) of 22 male and 21 female participants were: age (years) = 27.3 + 3.5 and 26.0 + 4.0, and VOseu (ml - kg’ - min) = 53.9 + 7.7 and 41.2 + 5.4, respectively. Participants ran 6 min in duration (0% grade) at an estimated 75% of Vex. Multiple regression determined which variables accounted for a significant proportion of RE variance. The following equation defined RE: VO; (ml kg” - min’) = (RS" [m/min] x 0,00048) + (HR% x 0.158) + 7.692. The equation resulted in an R* of 917 and a standard error of estimate (SEE) of 1.8 ml - kg”: min’. Nonsignificance of regression slope and intercept revealed the RE model could be used for men and ‘women. When cross-validated on a separate sample of physically active participants, the derived model was also highly accurate for evaluating RE (R’ = 901, SEE = 2.3 ml: kg'-min™). Key words: aerobic cost, multiple regression, steady-state, VOrmema Running has been a popular mode of exercise and the focus of numerous scientific investigations. As early as 1923, Hill and Lupton investigated the oxygen require- ment for running at a given speed, publishing the submaximal running data of a single runner, A. V. Hill. The authors stated: ‘Aman may fail to be a good runner by reason of a low oxygen intake, a low maximum oxygen debt, or a high oxygen requirement; clumsy and uneconomical movements may lead to exhaustion, just as well as may an imperfect supply of oxygen. (p. 158) Requests for reprints should be sent to Nestor W. Sherman, Department of Health & Kinesi- ology, Campus Box 198, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, Kingsville, TX 78363. E-mail: sherman @tamuk.edu166 SHERMAN AND JACKSON Other researchers examined variables that influenced running economy (RE) and how RE is defined. The physiological definition of RE is the body's oxygen consumption (VOz, or the aerobic demand) for a given running speed (RS; Cavanagh & Kram, 1985; Conley, Krahenbuhl, & Burkett, 1981; Daniels, 1985; Foster, Daniels, & Yarbrough, 1977; Joyner, 1991; Kearney & Van Handel, 1989; Morgan, Martin, & Krahenbuhl, 1989). Previous researchers assessed RE by the variability of VOz when RS was controlled. ‘The amount of interindividual variation in RE is not well defined at this time, partly due to the different statistics used to report variation in RE. The range, standard deviation, and percent changes in VO2su»max have all been used to describe interindividual variability in running economy. Numerous researchers (Bassett et al., 1985; Daniels, 1974; Daniels, Scardina, & Foley, 1984; Leger & Mercier, 1984; Powers, Dodd, Deason, Byrd, & McKnight, 1983; Sjodin & Schele, 1982) reported large ranges in VO2amax at a given RS. Cavanagh and Kram (1985) stated “there is enormous intersubject variation in the VO2simax at a given workload” (p. 304). Many researchers compared the RE of the most economical runner with the least economical runner in their samples. Previous RE studies used small samples of approximately 12, in which all participants ran at the same speed. Because participants vary in VOzpes, the participants ran at different exercise intensities. Presently, it is unclear if exercise intensity influences RE. Having all participants run at the same speed is unrealistic for runners of different fitness levels. Researchers who have participants run at the same speed limit their generalizability to that speed. Researchers in this study utilized a larger sample size and controlled for exercise intensity by having participants run at an estimated 75% of VOzpeu.. The purpose of this study was to determine if the variance in RE could be explained with regression analysis in healthy adults running at 50-85% of VOzea. Because individuals differ in VOzseu, this required them to run at different speeds. This study was designed to quantify RE for various running speeds and determine if RE was a function of running speed, exercise intensity, running stride length, body compo- sition, and gender. METHOD Participants Participants in the development of the RE model were physically active, with a ‘VOrpea: of 2 35 ml - kg: min", All were currently involved in exercise programs in which they exercised a minimum of three times a week. The sample included 22 men and 21 women, ranging in age from 18 to 35 years. There were 12 male and 14 female participants in the cross-validation group who were also physicallyREGRESSION ANALYSIS AND RUNNING ECONOMY 167 active. The study was approved by the University Committee for the Protection of Human Subjects, and participants gave their written consent prior to participation. Testing Methods VO; and carbon dioxide production (VCO) were measured with the open circuit method. A Parkinson-Cowan flowmeter measured gas volumes. Expired fractions of Oz and CO; were measured with Applied Electrochemistry S-3A (Ametek, Thermomax Instruments, Pittsburgh, PA) and Cavitron Anarad (Cavitron/KDC Medical, Anaheim, CA) analyzers, respectively. Analyzers were calibrated with certified standard gases of known concentrations prior to each test. A Rayfield system attached to an Apple II computer assessed VO, and respiratory exchange ratio (RER). A CIC heart rate (HR) monitor measured HR throughout testing. All running tests were performed on a Pacer motorized treadmill that was calibrated prior to and during testing. When the participants first reported to the Human Performance Laboratory, each completed the informed consent prior to testing. Body density was estimated from three skinfold measurements (Jackson & Pollock, 1978; Jackson, Pollock, & Ward, 1980) and then converted to percentage body fat (Siri, 1961). Percentage body fat was used to assess body composition. Participants were weighed to the nearest 0.1 kg while wearing their exercise clothing and running shoes. After being weighed, each participant’s VO2pex was determined with a Bruce protocol treadmill test (Bruce, Kusumi, & Hosmer, 1973). VOzpeax was defined as the highest minute value of oxygen uptake obtained during the final treadmill stage. The following criteria were used to determine the attainment of VOzpea: (a) plateau in VO; with an increase in work stage, (b) a maximum heart rate within + 10 beats of predicted HRmax (220-age), (c) a RER of at least 1.0, and (d) subjective fatigue and the inability to continue. All participants met at least three of the above criteria. Maximal values for RER, Rating of Perceived Exertion (RPE), HR, and VO; were recorded during the maximal treadmill test. Participants returned to the laboratory within 7 days to complete the submaximal phase of testing, reporting to the laboratory in the same attire for the second day of testing. On the second day, participants were weighed in running attire with shoes upon arrival at the laboratory. Each performed a submaximal treadmill run. The submaxi- mal run was 6 min in duration at 0% grade. A submaximal run duration of 6 min was used to ensure that participants were at a physiological steady state. Participants were assigned running speeds estimated at 75% of measured VOopea. This intensity was chosen because the recommended training intensity for developing and main- taining cardiorespiratory fitness is in the range of 50-85% of VO2mx (American College of Sports Medicine, 1995). Running speeds were calculated from the following model: RS (mph) = (VOspest X 0.145) + (YVOrpeax * 0.08) — 6.662. This168 SHERMAN AND JACKSON model was developed in a pilot study with 26 participants (R’ = .887, standard error of estimate [SEE] = 0.47 mph, 13 m/min). Submaximal exercise heart rate was measured during the last 15 sec of each minute. The average HR of minutes 5 and 6 was used to assess the intensity of the submaximal run, Submaximal HR was used to estimate exercise intensity from the following model: HR% = (HR - C)/(HRmux ~ C), where C is a constant of 63 for men and 73 for women (Ross & Jackson, 1990). Stride length was determined from the time of 40 strides during the fifth and sixth minutes of the submaximal run. The timer began the stopwatch as soon as the participant’s right foot touched the treadmill and stopped timing when the right foot made contact with the treadmill for the twentieth time. The average of two trials was used to calculate stride length. Stride length was estimated by the quotient of strides/minute divided by treadmill speed. Rowland, Auchinachie, Keenan, and Green (1987) used a similar technique for assessing stride frequency and stride length. A Model for Quantifying Running Economy The typical method for studying RE has each participant run at one to three common running speeds. The variability in RE is then calculated by using the standard deviation for all participants tested. In these studies, a participant would be economical or uneconomical, based on the VO2smax in relation to the mean value of the sample. When selected speeds are used, the generalizability is limited to just those speeds, which is unrealistic, because not all runners run at the same speed. Running at a single speed also results in participants running at different exercise intensities (i.¢., %VOzpeax). Researchers in this study reduced the variability in exercise intensity by having participants run at assigned running speeds based upon VOvpeai. All participants ran at an estimated 75% of VOzpeas, Which resulted in them running at different speeds because they differed in VOzpeax. Statistical Methods Multiple regression, utilizing the stepdown technique, was used to identify vari- ables that predict RE. The dependent variable was measured VOonbmax. The first variable entered into the regression model was RS. Because running speeds varied among participants, entering it into the model at the first step eliminated RS as a source of variance. The next step was to examine which other variables contributed to the model. Exercise intensity, percentage body fat, and stride length were then entered into the regression model. Variables that did not significantly contribute to the model were eliminated. Nonsignificance of regression slope and intercept was then tested to determine if the model could be used for men and women (Pedhazur, 1997). Once a final model was developed, the SEE became the index of runningREGRESSION ANALYSIS AND RUNNING ECONOMY = 169. economy. The final phase of the study was to cross-validate the derived RE model. ‘The RE mode! was cross-validated on another group of well-trained participants, and the accuracy of the RE model was determined from residual scores calculated from the following equation: SEE = V[Z(¥ -Y(N -2)]. RESULTS Descriptive characteristics of the 43 participants contrasted by gender are listed in Table 1. No significant age differences existed between men and women, but the men were taller, heavier, and leaner, with a significantly higher VOzpeat (54 vs. 41 ml - kg! min’). These are typical gender differences. Results of the maximal treadmill tests suggest the men and women achieved VO 2peax. Running speeds were assigned to elicit an intensity of 75% of VOpex during the 6 min run. Both men and women ran at slightly lower intensities than prescribed (68 & 71% of VOrpexx), respectively. Table 2 provides descriptive statistics for the submaximal run. Men ran at faster speeds than the women, due to their higher VOb2peax. Women ran at approximately 3% higher intensity than the men. There were small gender differences for RPE, HR, HR-estimated intensity (HR%), and RER. ‘These results indicated the men and women were running at similar intensities, but the men were running about 50 m/min (2 mph) faster, reflecting their higher aerobic capacities, The objective of this study was to determine if RE was a function of RS, HR%, body composition, stride length, and gender. The first step in the regression analysis was to determine if the relation between VO; and RS was linear or nonlinear. A quadratic model improved the prediction of VO2, F(1,40)=4.57, p=.039. A graphic TABLE 1 Descriptive Characteristics of Participants Used to Derive the Running Economy Model Contrasted by Gender Total® Women? Men‘ Characteristic M SD M sD M SD Age (years) 26.7 38 26.0 40 273 a Height (cm) 1716 89 165.6 17 174 SS Body weight(kg) 66.3 97 609 93 15 69 % Fat 171 6.0 20.5 48 138 ae VO peak (ml - kg - min“) 417 92 412 54 539 1 HR max (b/min) 189.1 16 187.2 90 190.9 5B RERew 12 on 12 01 12 ou Note, VObeu = peak oxygen consumption; HR = heart rate; b/min = beats per min; HRpu: = maximal HR; RERoux = maximal respiratory exchange ratio. “n= 43,"n= 21. ns 22.170 SHERMAN AND JACKSON TABLE 2 Running Economy Characteristic Women Men! Characteristic M sD Mm sD Running speed (mph) 53 08 a ui Running speed (r/min) 142.6 208 191.7 29.8 % VOrpe n2 62 6718 48 RPE (RPE units) 34 09 28 uu HR (b/min) 156.2 150 151.3 129 HR % 126 10.1 689 86 Stride length (m) 09 oO 12 02 RER 095 0.09 0.92 0.08 VO; (ml kg” - min”) 29.0 a 36.6 58 Note. VOz = oxygen consumption; VOzjeu = peak VOz, estimated from heart rate; RPE = rating of perceived exertion; HR = heart rate; b/min = beats per min; HR % = percent VOtpeu. estimated from heart rate; RER = respiratory exchange ratio. “n= "n= 22, Vo2 (mi/kg/min) 4 5 6 iz 8 9 10 Running Speed (mph) FIGURE 1 Comparison of linear and nonlinear regression models. display of the quadratic and linear model is provided in Figure 1. A cubic model did not improve the prediction of VO2, F(1, 39) = 0.48, p = .492. Because of this nonlinearity, the running speeds were transformed by squaring them (RS*). The transformation resulted in a regression equation with an R’ identical to that of the quadratic model (R’ = .86). The transformation of RS? was used in the remaining analyses. The next step was to determine if there was a common male-female regression line for the RS” model. Both the intercept (gender) and slope (gender xREGRESSION ANALYSIS AND RUNNING ECONOMY = 171 RS’) were not significantly different, which demonstrates that a single model can be used to estimate VO; for a given running speed for men and women, respectively, Fs(1, 39) = 0.17 and 0.04, and ps = .535 and .852. Multiple regression was then used to develop a full model for predicting running economy, heart-rate-estimated intensity (HR%), percentage fat, and stride length were entered as. group into she all masta! Fable 3 proves ake corresation mathix for the independent variables and the dependent variable (oxygen consumption [VOz2]). Running speed squared (RS?) and stride length were highly correlated with VO>. The addition of HR%, percent fat, and stride length to RS* resulted in a significant increase of R’. Sums of squares were calculated using the hierarchical (Type) approach (Gagnon, 1989). The full model yielded ahigh multiple correlation (R’ = 921) with a small standard error of estimate (SEE = 1.8 ml - kg" - min”), The next step was to determine which of the three variables significantly increased the R’ of the model beyond that of RS”. From the group of variables, HR% was then added to the model, because this variable significantly predicted running economy in a pilot study. The stepdown regression analysis used to determine the variables that accounted for a significant proportion of the variance in RE is provided in Table 4. The addition of HR% resulted in a statistically significant increase in R’, F(1, 40) = 27.27, p = .001. Percentage body fat and stride length were then added to the model, but they did not significantly increase the RE model R’. Based upon results of the stepdown analysis, the following RE models in m/min and mph were developed: VO,(ml - kg” min”) = (RS"[m/min] x 0.00048) + (HR% x 0.158) + 7.692 or in mph VO2(ml - kg” - min’) = (RS’{mph] x 0.345) + (HR% 0.158) + 7.692 (R*= .917, Adjusted R’ = 913, SEE = 1.8 ml - kg" - min’). ‘The test for nonsignificance of male and female regression slope and intercept revealed the RE model was equally applicable to men and women. ‘The final step in the analysis was to cross-validate the RE model. Physical characteristics (mean and standard deviation) of the 12 men and 14 women in the TABLE 3 Intercorretation Matrix for the Independent and Dependent Variables Variable 1 2 3 4 5 6 1. RS? — 236 -638 S71 68 ©6927 2. HR% - 090-211 196.012 3. % Fat — ~677 ~564 638 4. Stride length — 7 gu 5. Gender — 608 6. VO2 (DV) = Note, RS? = running speed squared; VO, = oxygen consumption: VOznux = maximal VO;; HR = heart rate; HR % = % VOznax estimated from HR; DV pendent variable.172 SHERMAN AND JACKSON TABLE 4 ‘Stepdown Approach and A’ Change for Estimating Running Economy Utilizing the Hierarchical Method for Calculating Sums of Squares Variable af AR’ SS MS F P Full model 4 1,426.64 356.66 MLSt 001 RS? 1 860 1,331.45 1,331.45, 251.88 001 HR % 1 057 87.86 87.86 227 001 % Fat 1 001 258 2.58 0.80 amr Stride length 1 003 475 475 1.48 231 Note. RS? = running speed squared; HR % = % peak oxygen consumption estimated from heart rate. cross-validation group were age (years) M = 27.6, SD =4.7 for men and M = 25.6, .0 for women, and VOrpeas (mt - kg” min”) = 60.8 + 7.4 and 49.0 + 7.2, respectively. When applied to the cross-validation group, the RE model showed similar accuracy (R’ = .901, SEE = 2.3 ml - kg- min“) for estimating VO2. DISCUSSION This study was designed to examine the influence of RS, exercise intensity, body composition, stride length, and gender on RE. Previous RE researchers experimen- tally controlled RS by having participants run at the same speed. In this study, participants ran at different speeds, and RS was statistically controlled by entering it into the regression model first. Metabolic exercise intensity was experimentally controlled by having participants run at the same estimated percentage of VO2eax. The running speeds assigned were estimated to be 75% of VOzpeat- ‘The relation between VO; and RS was examined by determining if a linear or nonlinear model best fit the data. The nonlinear model significantly improved the accuracy of predicting VO>. RS? was used as the independent variable to account for the nonlinearity. Other researchers also reported nonlinear models for the energy cost of running (Daniels, Krahenbuhl, Foster, Gilbert, & Daniels, 1977; Londeree, 1986). The estimated VO;s from the nonlinear model were nearly identical with those from another published quadratic model (Daniels et al., 1977). This study, along with results from the Daniels et al. study, demonstrates that the relation between VO; and RS is nonlinear. Intensity of the submaximal runs was controlled by having the participants run. at approximately 75% of VOzpea.. This intensity was selected because it is consid- ered to be a comfortable running pace and is within the intensity range (50-85% VOz2max) recommended by the American College of Sports Medicine (1995). Despite experimentally controlling exercise intensity, exercise intensity stil] had a significant effect on RE.REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND RUNNING ECONOMY = 173 HR-estimated intensity was the second variable entered into the RE model. HR% was used instead of measured intensity (VO2susmax/VOzpeax) because it is not calcu- lated from the dependent variable, VO2sna. A moderate correlation existed between HR% and measured %VO2pex, (41) = .73, p= .0001. HR% significantly increased the R’ of the model beyond that of RS”. The next variable added to the model was percentage body fat. Excess fat may be thought of as dead weight, which should have no beneficial effect and probably has a negative influence on running. Unfortunately, most RE researchers examined groups of participants with little variability in percent body fat. Pate, Barnes, and Miller (1985) matched men and women according to body composition and found no differences in VOz:mx. Cureton and Sparling (1980) reported no gender differences for RE at 188 m/min (7 mph). Also, after the men wore weighted vests to equalize for natural differences in body fat, the differences in RE were not statistically significant. In the current study, percentage body fat was moderately correlated with the dependent measure. However, due to its intercorrelation with the other independent variables, it was not a significant variable in the RE model, r(41 38, p= 0001. The chances of finding body fat to be a significant variable was optimized by including men and women in the sample, which increased the percent fat variability. Despite having men and women in the sample, percent fat did not add significantly to the model, and therefore did not appear to affect RE. The final variable added to the model was stride length. Stride length did not add significantly to the RE model. Stride length and RS were highly correlated with the dependent measure (VO,); correlations were .92 and .97, respectively. The correlation between RS and stride length in this study is similar to the correlation reported by Hagan, Strathman, Strathman, and Gettman (1980), 7(74) = .938, p< .05. The failure of stride length to account for additional variance demonstrates that stride length and running speed accounted for the same variance. Other researchers (Hagan et al., 1980; Van der Walt & Wyndham, 1973) reported that stride length does not significantly influence RE. Van der Walt and Wyndham reported that stride length added a small amount (0.7%) to the additional variance. With a small sample size (N = 6) the R’ increase in the Van der Walt and Wyndham study was not statistically significant. Itis difficult to determine the effect of running with a freely chosen stride length on RE. Most researchers (Cavanagh & Williams, 1982; Heinert, Serfass, & Stull, 1988; Hoegberg, 1952; Knuttgen, 1961; Powers, Hopkins, & Ragsdale, 1982) compared freely chosen stride lengths with longer or shorter stride lengths. Inves- tigators then compared the effect of changing stride length for single participants and specific groups of participants. These researchers reported that most runners self-select an economical stride length; however, few studies have been performed to determine if there is an optimum stride length for a given running speed. Previous researchers examined stride length changes of approximately + 10%. Possibly a change of 2 to 3% in stride length could affect RE. Based upon published research,174 SHERMAN AND JACKSON it appears that stride length has little if any effect on RE. This conclusion is in agreement with Hagan et al. (1980). Nonsignificance of regression slope and intercept revealed the RE model could be used for men and women. This is in agreement with the findings of other researchers, who reported no gender differences in the energy cost of running (Daniels et al., 1977; Davies & Thompson, 1979; Pate et al., 1985; Pate & Kriska, 1984; Ramsbottom, Nute, & Williams, 1987; Sparling & Cureton, 1983). RE is measured by the standard deviation of VOzuhmax when speed is controlled experimentally. In our study, where participants differed in running speed, the SEE became the measure of RE. Only two researchers reported less variability in RE than the small SEE of 1.8 ml - kg™'- min”! reported in our study. Because our study utilized a heterogeneous sample, the small SEE illustrates the lack of variability in running economy and shows RS? and HR% account for most of the VOzsimex variance. Previous researchers utilized small homogeneous samples, but our study utilized a larger sample size. The primary difference between our study and previous RE research is the experimental and statistical control of exercise intensity. Controlling exercise intensity explained a significant proportion of the variance in RE. It's important to note that multiple regression equations are influenced by the order of the independent variables. In our study, RS* was the first variable entered into the model, to control for differences in running speeds. Adding HR% to the model significantly improved the accuracy of the model; however, stride length, percentage body fat, or gender did not account for a significant amount of variance beyond that of RS? and HR%. Other possible combinations of variables may exist that could accurately assess RE. In theory, running speed should be the first variable entered into RE regression models, because RE is defined as the VO; for a given running speed. Because the coefficient of determination for the RE model in our study was .917, only 8.3% of the total variance was due to other variables. These results show that if other factors affect RE, their influence is minor and could only account for less than 9% of total RE variance. In conclusion, results of this study demonstrate that: . The relation between RS and the oxygen cost of running is nonlinear. 2. Exercise intensity was related to RE. 3. 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