United Nations Security Council 2031

Future Security Council

Topics
1. Greenland: A Global Oil Crisis
2. Russian Expansionism: Preventing a 3rd World War

List of Countries
Permanent Members
United States
Russian Federation
China
United Kingdom
France
Non-Permanent Members
Germany
Brazil
Venezuela
Iran
Egypt
Kazakhstan
Non-Council Members
Denmark
Ukraine

Committee Summary
The Security Council is one of the principal organs of the United Nations. Its primary function is
the maintenance of international peace and security by means of actions approved through
diplomatic negotiations between member nations and implemented through the resolutions of the
Council. The Security Council investigates international issues, discusses the gravity of such
matters and strives to reach a solution to those conflicts through diplomatic pressure, imposition
of sanctions, authorization of military force, and assignment of peacekeeping forces and
mediators. Its role is of paramount importance for the neutralization of looming threats of
violence and terror as to sustain peace in the world.
This year, the delegates of this Future Security Council will be taking two intricate issues neither
of which has been brought to a satisfying conclusion in the simulated future of 2031 and will
need to shape their role and their policy through the summaries and documents provided prior
to the conference. Within the limits of the role that they will create for themselves, they will be

called to use a great deal of imagination, diplomatic skills and instinct in order to respond to any
arising situation. The answers that will be given, the decisions that will be reached and the
compromises that will be made (if any) will set a strong and important precedent for the years to
come after this meeting.

THE WORLD SINCE 2014

2031 - Throughout the past few years, nations have been draw further and further apart. Among
the numerous events in current world affairs three occurrences strike as the principal causes for
such state of affairs: the continuing transformation in the global distribution of power, Russian
expansionism, and the Global Oil Crisis. The balance of power among the worlds remaining oil
exporters has reshaped the global distribution of power. With a rough balance between several
powers, the world is more multi-polar than at any time since the eighteenth century.
These global crises led to a world dominated by China, Germany, Russia and the United States,
with Brazil and India also playing major roles. These four nations have adopted a Cold War-type
posture in attempting to claim spheres of influence around the world.
The United States drew closer to the Republic of Korea as well as the United Kingdom, which,
greatly weakened by the oil crisis, has returned to stress its long-forgotten special relationship
with the United States. Furthermore, concerned with the rising German domination of the
European Union, the UK withdrew from the EU in 2023. Additionally, the Ukraine, concerned
with Russian efforts to increase popularity in the region, also drew closer to the United States.
Most European countries, on the other hand, drew closer to Germany, which, with a large
investment base, saw its power greatly expand, and became the leading figure of the European
Union since 2020, consolidating its base with support from Italy, the Netherlands, and France,
with which it has been developing strong friendly ties ever since.
Different from most nations, Denmark, although tending more to the side of Western powers
during times of conflict, managed to maintain its neutrality.
Russia, with natural gas to export, expanded its influence in Eastern Europe and the Balkans.
Sharing mutual interest in maintaining close strategic and military ties, Russia also drew closer
to the bordering Central Asian nation of Kazakhstan and the Middle Eastern country of Iran.
After its attempt to diversify its energy business in 2014, announcing a large gas deal with the
Republic of China, the Russian Federation largely strengthened its ties with the the Chinese
government, allowing them greater flexibility in foreign policy.

China, having met its rapidly growing demand for cleaner energy sources with the deal,
maintained its political, economic, and diplomatic relations with Iran, where their strategic
partnership endures.
The oil crisis had numerous implications for all exporters, including the Middle East. With little
oil available, the economies of the Gulf monarchies of Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and
the United Arab Emirates collapsed. Only the support of the U.S. military left the monarchies in
Qatar and Kuwait intact, but greatly weakened, lacking legitimacy. Additionally, a major
humanitarian crisis developed since most of the Middle Eastern countries were no longer able to
afford water imports. Thus, Egypt emerged as the dominant voice in the Middle East.
In Latin America, economic decline has been a problem since the beginning of the global oil
crisis. Mexico and Venezuela have particularly suffered, yet the latter has managed to maintain
its socialist government. Brazil, on the other hand, with its abundant supply of ethanol, has
become the fastest growing economy in the region and considers itself the leading proponent of
Latin American interests. Political instability is a regional problem, with UN missions in
Honduras, and the new phenomenon of Brazilian military bases in Haiti, Nicaragua and
Suriname.

Greenland: A Global Oil Crisis

Summary
The year is 2031. The reserves of the world's most crucial and substantial energy resource, oil,
had been depleted by the middle of 2030. World leaders convened at an emergency summit, and
heads of state announced the severe situation of the global oil supply. The world entered a new
regime of frugality and isolationism while living with the alternative sources developed. Still,
chaos ensues, and the scientific community is in a state of frenzy as it searches for alternative
sources. The doors bolted on coal plants last used a hundred years ago are reopened, and the
demand for lumber skyrockets. The world energy system is unable to adapt to the absence of its
major energy source.
On February 2nd, 2031, geologist Dr. Jorgen Pederson of Denmark delivered a paradigmshifting speech presenting his discovery of the worlds last reserve of oil, located deep below
layers of magnetically polarized limestone and ice in Northern Greenland. The oil pocket in
Greenland, Pederson says, may have enough oil to last the world for up to two more decades,
and of course much longer for an individual nation. The discovery of Greenlandic oil has
inflamed the nations of the world with greed. The great nations of the world have now come
together to react to this new crisis and seek a viable solution to this issue. The United States,
Russia, Canada, China, and numerous other nations plan to claim Greenland, and its oil, as their
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own. Should the precious oil be apportioned to the entire world? Should it be kept safe in case of
a global emergency? Or will the delegates, each powerful in their own right, choose to expend
their own limited resources to acquire the oil for themselves?
Guiding Questions
1. What is the your countrys energy policy? How has it shifted over time? What are your
countrys plans for the future in this regard?
2. What is your country's main energy source? Is your country self-sustainable in terms of
energy production or does it rely on the production of other countries?
3. What is the importance of oil for your countrys economy? Is your country selfsustainable oil-wise or does it purchase oil from other nations?
4. What is your country's stance on investing a significant amount of money on the
exploration of this oil reserve? Is this type of exploration/investment truly beneficial to
your country's economy and energy supply?
5. What is Denmarks role in the issue?
6. How is your country planning to act?
a. Is your country wishing to claim this territory and assert ownership over this last
oil supply? If so, how is it planning to do so? How will it stop other nations from
also claiming the region?
b. Is it aiming to share this oil supply between all nations? If so, how should it be
apportioned?
c. Is it intending to preserve it in case of a global emergency? If so, how will the
international community decide when it should be used?
d. Do you believe that Denmark ought to have the final decision in regard to this
situation?
7. What are your countrys reasons for possessing such a point of view?
8. What is your countrys position in respect to contrasting points of view? (For instance, if
another country claims this territory, will your country see this as a potential threat?)
9. What other countries possess a similar energy policy as well as a relatable position in
regard to energy usage when compared to your country?
Helpful Sources
1. http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/KeyWorld2013.pdf (Global
energy statistics - International Energy Agency)
2. http://www.eco-action.org/dt/oilfut.html (Predictions on the future of oil)
3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBBGKx65Ygg (Brief video - scientific background
on oil)
4. http://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm?view=production (Oil and energy statistics for
specific countries)
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5. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/ (International energy outlook with predictions)

6. http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/support/tiki-download_file.php?fileId=283 (Global Oil Depletion
- Thorough report)
7. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.368.1520&rep=rep1&type=pdf
(Economic Review: The Peak Oil Debate)
8. http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/index.htm (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries)
9. http://www.iea.org/publications/countryreviews/ (Compilation of Energy Policies of IEA
member countries)
10. http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/run-out-of-oil.htm (Peak oil
theory and its implications)
11. http://geography.about.com/od/greenland/a/Greenland-Status.htm (Greenlands Status)
12. *Search for your countrys official Energy Policy report

Russian Expansionism: Preventing a 3rd World War

Summary
In early 2014, the Republic of Crimea, originally part of the Ukraine, became the focus of the
worst East-West crisis since the Cold War, after Ukraine's pro-Moscow president Viktor
Yanukovych was driven from power by violent protests in Kiev. As a result, Kremlin-backed
forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula, and the territory, composed predominantly of
Russian-speaking individuals, voted to join Russia in a referendum that the Ukraine and the West
deemed illegal. Soon after the swift annexation of the Crimea, Russia, in an attempt to diversify
its energy business, announced a large gas deal with the Republic of China. The deal, besides
aiding Chinas efforts to meet its rapidly growing demand for cleaner energy sources, provided
Moscow with an alternative market for one of its main exports, reducing Russian dependence on
the slow-growing European gas market and allowing them greater flexibility in foreign policy.
Ultimately, the deal resulted in the fortification of Russias powerful alliance with China, and
thus generating strengthened economic, diplomatic, and political ties.
For long, the international community was uncertain about Putins ultimate objectives. Despite
some predictions that his expansionist strategies would end in Crimea, after 2018, Putin proved
to possess further plans to increase Russian predominance in the world by moving towards
Transnistria, also known as Trans-Dniester, a strip of land bordering the Ukraine that has
declared its independence from Moldova since 1990, but was never fully recognized as a state by
other sovereign nations. Taking similar steps to the ones in Crimea, after a referendum proving
their support, Russia officially annexed the region of Transnistria into their territory in 2019.
Furthermore, in 2026, Russia, after prolonged negotiations with the Belarusian government,
annexed the Republic of Belarus into the Russian Federation. Besides this annexation being a
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much longer process in terms of all the necessary dialogue and arrangements, it opened the eyes
of the international community, leading the United States and its allies into becoming more
concerned with Putin's next steps and ultimate goals.
In early 2029, Putin initiated a rapid and strong pro-Russian campaign in the eastern region of
Ukraine by stoking a separatist sentiment with the usage of propaganda. After the Ukrainian
government had realized the degree of its situation, it immediately attempted to appoint an
experienced and organized defense to its military posts. However, having taken too long to fully
react, this fast mobilization was unsuccessful, leading to Ukraine's failure at withstanding against
Russia's efforts and having its Eastern regions annex themselves to Russia. As a result, Russia
has been able to further impose both economic and diplomatic pressures on the Ukrainian
government to accept a full annexation of Ukraine. The Chinese government has decided to
support Russia's efforts in bringing greater stability to the region. In contrast, the United
States, similarly to the situation in Transnistria and Belarus, has publicly declared that they view
this action as illegal and [thus] a political threat. They have assured military support to
Ukraine, and claim that the ongoing situation might be on the verge of a global conflict.

Guiding Questions
1. What are the causes of the Ukrainian crisis? How has the international community shifted
its course?
2. What measures have been taken in order to bring an end to the crisis in Ukraine? Have
they been effective? Why or why not?
3. How has US relations with Russia shifted over time? How will they influence the future
of the Ukrainian crisis? How will they affect Putins expansionist policies?
4. What is the EEU (Eurasian Economic Union)? How will it affect the future of the region,
the Ukrainian crisis, and Putins expansionist endeavors?
5. What are the foundations for Russias interest in annexing other regions and nations, such
as Crimea, into their own territory?
6. How does the natural gas deal between China and Russia affect the United States as well
as the European Union? How will it affect the Western strategy against Russia? It what
ways will it bring greater flexibility to Russias foreign policy? How will it affect your
country and its position regarding the subject?

7. Is Russian President Vladimir Putin an opportunist, grabbing at chances to poke the West
in the eye, or a clever strategist with the longer-term goal of restoring a greater Russia? Is
he simply riding a tide of Russian patriotic fervor over Crimea?
8. What are your countrys closest allies?
a. Is your countrys foreign policy more closely aligned with Chinas or with the
United States?
b. Which of these two nations does your country have a stronger economic
partnership with? Consider international trade and commercialization.
9. How has your country viewed and managed military action in the past? Does your
country support the usage of arms?
10. Should the world seek a peaceful restoration of these countries' diplomatic relations or is
military force necessary to stop Russian expansionism?
Helpful Sources
1. http://www.cfr.org/ukraine/issue-guide-crisis-ukraine/p32406 (Issue Guide: Crisis in
Ukraine - CFR)
2. http://www.cfr.org/ukraine/issue-guide-crisis-ukraines-crimea/p32516 (Issue Guide:
Crisis in Ukraines Crimea - CFR)
3. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18018002 (Ukraine profile - BBC)
4. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18287223 (Crimea profile - BBC)
5. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-18284837 (Transnistria profile - BBC)
6. http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/03/18/After-Crimea-Vote-MoldovasTransniestria-Region-Asks-to-Join-Russia (Transnistria Region Asks to Join Russia)
7. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17941131 (Belarus profile - BBC)
8. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/05/21/russia_china_finally_ink_landmark_e
nergy_deal (Russian gas deal with China)
9. http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2014/05/28/whats-driving-the-chinarussia-natural-gas-deal (Strategic partnership between Russia and China)
10. http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/mundo/2014/05/1458118-analise-acordo-energeticomarca-nova-vitoria-geopolitica-de-putin.shtml (Russia-China gas deal - Folha de S.
Paulo)
11. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27619156,
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-builds-new-union-on-ashes-ofsoviet-empire/501094.html, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/for-russiaeurasian-union-is-about-politics-not-economy/501126.html, (Eurasian Economic Union EEU)
12. http://www.state.gov/p/eur/ci/rs/200years/c30272.htm (Timeline of Russia and the United
States' relationship)

13. http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russian-expansion-into-eastern-ukraine-couldcost-putin-dearly/2014/03/13/bd7d4972-a952-11e3-8d62-419db477a0e6_story.html (US

view on Russian expansionism)
14. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/kremlin-adviser-steps-up-war-of-wordswith-us-over-ukraine/501151.html (Russia view on American participation on the issue
of Ukraine)
15. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/Russians_ethnic_94.jpg (Map of
the Region - for reference)

The Future
The Future Security Council emphasizes flexibility and spontaneity. Its agenda is hard to predict.
Nevertheless, there are many general intelligence and strategic planning reports that offer
excellent guidance. Especially helpful in preparing for future simulation are three recent major
reports that examine the world of 2025-2030:
1. http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/2025_Global_
Trends_Final_Report.pdf (Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World)
2. https://www.fas.org/man/eprint/joe2008.pdf (US predictions on future challenges to be
faced by the world)
3. http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/GlobalTrends_2030.pdf (Global Trends 2030:
Alternative Worlds)
All three reports were written by American government agencies, with a distinct American
perspective. But they are of great value when evaluating the trends reshaping world politics,
examining the future paths of all regions and most countries on the Future Security Council of
2030.

Campinas Model United Nations 2014

CAMUN
Chair: Matheus Bevilacqua
Co-Chairs: Diana Sieh & Flavio Biglia