Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Study #2133
January 26-29, 2016
3,019 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
Poll Questions
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?
100
-
Yes
No
Not sure
Continue
Terminate
How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or
the Republican caucus? (Continue if definitely or probably attend one of the caucuses.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Definitely
attend
Democratic
caucus
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Probably
attend
Democratic
caucus
Definitely
attend
Republican
caucus
Probably
attend
Republican
caucus
Probably not
attend a
caucus
Dont know
which caucus
will attend
Not sure
57
43
49
48
46
47
36
40
39
51
52
54
53
64
60
61
How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or
the Republican caucus? (Continue if definitely or probably attend one of the caucuses.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Definitely
attend
Democratic
caucus
Probably
attend
Democratic
caucus
Definitely
attend
Republican
caucus
Probably
attend
Republican
caucus
65
35
63
48
53
38
45
39
42
39
37
52
47
62
55
61
58
61
Probably not
attend a
caucus
Dont know
which caucus
will attend
Not sure
Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Attended
Republican
caucus in the
past
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Attended
Democratic
caucus in the
past
Attended
both
First
caucus
Not
sure
46
40
59
60
66
64
68
67
72
5
4
3
3
4
1
2
7
12
13
12
11
15
11
29
24
17
21
17
17
14
1
1
1
1
Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Attended
Republican
caucus in the
past
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Attended
Democratic
caucus in the
past
Attended
both
First
caucus
Not
sure
55
34
3
4
3
3
3
7
12
61
65
70
65
68
61
63
9
7
8
12
9
11
12
26
25
19
19
18
21
12
1
1
1
1
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record No first
choice in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice
First
Choice
Second
Choice
45
3
42
26
16
28
4
5
9
11
10
Combined
71
19
70
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record No first
choice in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Uncommitted (VOLonly if
respondent says the word
uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
First
Second
Combined
45
26
71
42
48
42
37
50
57
56
29
27
31
23
18
15
15
71
75
73
60
68
72
71
16
19
4
4
2
3
2
2
1
11
19
6
8
10
3
3
15
23
8
11
12
5
4
42
28
70
40
39
37
30
24
16
5
32
33
23
20
20
13
6
72
72
60
50
44
29
11
7
6
3
6
7
6
4
5
3
3
3
8
6
3
11
7
2
3
8
16
8
6
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
10
9
7
6
19
13
8
10
14
8
6
13
23
14
10
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among all Dem CGs
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=602
n=503
n=404
n=402
4.0% pts
4.4% pts
4.9% pts
4.9% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
Sure
69
30
59
53
42
40
46
58
1
1
-
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among Clinton supporters
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=282
n=232
n=205
n=176
5.8% pts
6.4% pts
6.9% pts
7.4% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
83
16
69
64
46
29
35
54
1
1
-
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among Sanders supporters
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=242
n=182
n=149
n=138
6.3% pts
7.3% pts
8.1% pts
8.4% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
69
29
70
55
46
30
45
53
Was there ever a time when you supported Hillary Clinton as your first choiceeither in this campaign or when
she ran in 2007 and 2008? (If yes, specify. Asked only of Sanders supporters.)
Sanders
supporters
n=242
6.3% pts
65
17
12
5
2
For how long have you been supporting Bernie Sandersa few days, a few weeks, a few months or longer than
that? (Asked only of current Sanders supporters who supported Clinton at some point during the 20152016 campaign, but based on all Sanders supporters.)
Sanders
supporters
n=242
6.3% pts
82
2
4
7
2
2
Was there ever a time during this campaign when you supported Bernie Sanders as your first choice? (If yes:)
For how long have you been supporting Hillary Clintona few days, a few weeks, a few months or longer than
that? (Asked only of Clinton supporters.)
Clinton
supporters
n=282
5.8% pts
87
1
6
3
2
-
Now, Im going to mention some prominent politicians [before Dec-15: prominent Democrats], including [Before Aug-15:
people talked about as possible] presidential candidates [Before Jan-16: candidates for the Democratic nomination for
president]. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very
unfavorable. If you dont know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record dont know as not
sure. Rotate list, but Obama must always go first and Biden through Bloomberg will go last.)
Among likely Democratic
caucusgoers
Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
Fav
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
90
55
35
91*
87*
90
88
91
89
86
8
11
7*
9
7
9
13
59
50
51
43
44
49
49
31
36
39
45
47
40
37
5
5
4
5
5
6
5
3
6
4
4
2
3
8
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
81
17
43
38
86
82
85
77
88
86*
84
76
12
14
14
19
10
12*
15
19
42
43
39
27
30
39
46
43
44
39
46
50
58
46
38
33
7
8
8
10
6
7
7
8
5
6
6
9
4
6
8
11
2
4
2
4
2
2
1
5
Bernie Sanders
Bill Clinton
Elizabeth Warren
Joe Biden
John Kerry
Michael Bloomberg
Fav
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
46
13
12
34
41
48
43
43
33
20*
13
13
10
15*
17*
7*
8
9
9
10
7
8
8
4
2
2
38
36
35
25
17
11
11
7
9
14
5
5
6
7
3
5
4
3
3
3
2
42
42
39
60
72
78
78
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
82
12
42
40
89
80
82
73
57
47
37
29
6
12*
10*
8
4
12
12
13
49
42
42
39
27
23
17
10
40
38
40
34
30
24
20
19
4
7
6
4
3
8
8
8
2
4
3
4
1
4
4
5
5
9
8
19
39
41
51
58
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Jun-15
86
11*
44
42
87
90*
10
7
47
45
40
44
6
5
4
2
3
3
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
47
30
17
46
56
53
62
58
44
6
11*
9
11
11
36
31
31
30
23
20
22
31
28
21
4
7
6
6
6
2
5
3
5
5
38
35
28
31
45
late Jan-16
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
81
11*
41
40
85
79*
76
78
60
10
14
20
20
34
36
29
22
25
15
49
51
54
53
45
7
8
14
14
19
3
6
6
6
15
5
7
4
2
6
late Jan-16
Oct-14
65*
18
21
43
12
17
60
31
13
47
18
13
late Jan-16
17
26
15
17
57
*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best
estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
For each of these candidates, please tell me how enthusiastic your support would be if the person became the
Democratic nomineewould you be very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, just OK with it, or not OK with it?
(Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Democratic
caucusgoers
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Very/fairly
enthusiastic
73
69
Just/not
OK with it
26
30
Very
enthusiastic
Fairly
enthusiastic
Just OK
with it
Not OK
with it
53
49
20
20
14
22
12
8
Not
Sure
1
2
For each of the following statements, please tell me if you strongly agree, mostly agree, mostly disagree, or strongly
disagree. (Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Agree
Disagree
Strongly
agree
Mostly
agree
Mostly
disagree
Strongly
disagree
Not
Sure
80
11
42
39
68*
25
31
38
16
Regardless of whom you support, for each of the following, please tell me if you have become more comfortable or less
comfortable with the scenario, or if youve not really changed. (Read items. Rotate.)
More
Less
comfortable comfortable
53
49
54
47
20
22
20
26
No
change
Not
sure
26
25
24
26
1
4
2
2
Regardless of whom you support, which candidate do you think is the one who cares most about people like youHillary
Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
Dem CGs
37
51
11
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Not sure
Now Im going to read you some descriptions of public figures. After each, please tell me if you think it better describes [HILLARY
CLINTON] or [BERNIE SANDERS]? (Rotate candidates. Read list. Rotate items.)
Jun-15
Clinton
Sanders
Both equally
(VOL)
40
35
11
Not
Sure
14
Which of the following best fits your view of Bill Clintons role in Hillary Clintons campaign? (Read options. Rotate.)
Dem CGs
18
73
10
Bill Clinton represents the past, not the future, and has a history of problems with women
Bill Clinton was a successful president and has good ideas for how to take the country forward
Not sure
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton has handled Bill Clintons past extramarital affairs and
accusations of sexual harassment and sexual assault, or do you not really care? (Read options. Rotate.)
Dem CGs
30
7
57
6
Approve
Disapprove
Do not really care
Not sure
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
(If Uncommitted or not sure:) Toward which candidate do you lean?
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in leaning question, code second choice as No
first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
First Choice
or Lean
First
Choice
2
10
3
23
2
2
2
5
15
2
28
2
9
3
23
2
2
2
5
14
2
28
5
5
Lean
Based on all
1
1
3
3
No first choice
Second
Choice
Combined
(1st/Lean/2nd)
4
11
3
17
4
3
2
4
20
2
7
6
21
6
40
6
5
4
9
35
4
35
5
9
9
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
(If Uncommitted or not sure:) Toward which candidate do you lean?
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in leaning question, code second choice as No
first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Republican
caucusgoers
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
First choice
or lean
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
First
Lean
Based on all
Second
Combined
4
6
5
6
9
8
4
6
5
6
9
8
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
4
5
5
4
7
7
8
11
10
10
16
15
10
11
21
11
13
28
18
10
9
11
13
28
18
10
9
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
8
14
19
14
5
10
19
27
47
32
15
19
3
3
1
2
4
4
3
3
1
2
4
4
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
3
3
2
1
4
3
6
6
3
3
8
7
23
23
17
40
25
31
10
8
5
5
25
31
10
8
5
5
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
23
20
9
10
8
6
48
51
19
18
13
11
2
1
4
5
2
1
-
2
1
4
5
2
1
-
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
4
4
13
11
3
1
-
6
5
17
16
5
2
3
3
3
4
9
10
3
3
3
4
9
10
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
4
5
3
4
8
7
7
8
6
8
17*
17
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
1
2
2
3
1
1
3
4
4
5
3
2
First choice
or lean
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Uncommitted (VOL
only if respondent says
the word
uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
First
Lean
Based on all
Second
Combined
5
3
5
4
10
14
5
3
5
4
10
14
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
2
3
4
3
5
9
7
6
9
7
15
23
15
14
20
35
12
10
9
6
6
3
12
10
9
6
6
3
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
16
14
11
8
12
8
28
24
20
14
18
11
1
1
2
1
6
4
1
1
2
1
6
4
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
1
2
1
2
6
6
2
3
3
3
12
10
28
28
35
22
21
19
23
4
1
22
21
19
23
4
1
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
11
14
9
9
2
1
33
35
28
32
6
2
5
3
3
5
4
2
5
3
3
5
4
2
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
4
3
2
1
2
1
6
4
7
5
7
5
6
4
7
5
7
5
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
8
4
2
4
5
6
9
11
7
11
10
11
7
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among all Rep CGs
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=602
n=500
n=400
n=401
4.0% pts
4.4% pts
4.9% pts
4.9% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
55
45
42
33
22
56
66
78
2
1
1
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among Trump supporters
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=170
n=110
n=86
n=80
7.5% pts
9.4% pts
10.6% pts
11.0% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
71
29
64
45
32
36
55
67
1
1
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among Cruz supporters
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=142
n=123
n=120
n=36
8.3% pts
8.9% pts
9.0% pts
16.6% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
61
38
51
43
37
48
55
63
1
2
-
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first
choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
Among Rubio supporters
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
n=89
n=61
n=39
n=39
10.4% pts
12.7% pts
15.9% pts
15.9% pts
Mind is
made up
Could still be
persuaded
Not
sure
47
53
24
10
18
72
90
80
3
3
Now, Im going to mention some prominent politicians, including presidential candidates [before late Jan-16:
candidates for the Republican nomination for president]. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable,
mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know enough about the person to answer,
just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list, but Palin through Bloomberg will be last.)
Among likely Republican
caucusgoers
Jeb Bush
Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida
Ben Carson
Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon
Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas
John Kasich
John Kasich, governor of Ohio
Rand Paul
Rand Paul, U.S. senator from
Kentucky
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
35
30
22
10
6
14
10
11
17
9
37
32
36
36
32
29
41
32
32
25
31
27
25
19
18
22
18
19
18
18
9
4
7
7
5
13
11
22
28
44
15
29
28
53
46
24
28
24
45
44
31
33
32
22
17
16
13
7
6
10
9
4
7
9
5
2
5
3
4
4
6
4
13
29
38
51
44
30
29
15
16
42
42*
49
59
58
54
45
12
8
6
5
6
7
8
39
38
32
24
21
29
31
27
24
28
36
39
32
29
15
19
21
23
19
22
16
7
11
12
12
14
10
16
65
28
29
36
15
13
76
73
61
61
59
58
52
19
19*
26
24
20
21
18
39
43
28
29
20
22
20
37
30
33
32
39
36
32
10
12
15
17
13
14
11
9
6
11
7
7
7
7
5
9
13
15
21
21
30
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
28
27*
22
17
11
45
28
19
31*
33*
25
22
17
43
46
33*
22
16*
14
7
6
5
8
10
7
7
3
22
14
22
22
18
15
14
26
31
22
17
11
10
5
17
15
12
5
4
4
2
29
34
36
45
59
64
76
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
40*
41*
13
28
28
14
18
45
37
43*
39*
55
64
59
43
50*
48*
49
34
25
24
11
9
12
11
16
25
21
34
28
30
29
39
39
38
29
30
29
31
24
18
18
14
19
18
18
10
7
6
12
14
10
12
11
11
17
Fav
Unf
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
41*
53*
47
39*
50
45*
43
46
50
50
54
43
50
45
43
28
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
72
22*
73*
72
84
79
56
50
41
22*
22
12
8
15
12
8
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
40*
51
46
39*
29
28*
36
39
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Very
Favorable
Fav
Unf
Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
70
21*
25
45
13
73
70
70*
67
60
57
54
21*
21
20
20
17
20
16
29
24
26
24
20
16
14
44
46
43
43
40
41
40
14
15
12
15
12
15
12
8
6
8
5
5
5
4
6
9
10
13
23
23
30
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
50
47*
27
23
19
27
54*
57
59
61*
27
26
45
38
37
35
63*
68
26
25
27
26
7
4
27
32
32
34
20
22
23
17
19
16
31
36
22
21
18
19
33
32
2
5
5
4
10
6
Sarah Palin
late Jan-16
37*
50
29
27
23
13
Terry Branstad
late Jan-16
65
26
24
41
17
Michael Bloomberg
late Jan-16
50
20
30
41
Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from
Florida
Donald Trump
Donald Trump, a businessman from
New York
Donald Trump, businessman and
television personality
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure
For each of these candidates, please tell me how enthusiastic your support would be if the person became the
Republican nomineewould you be very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, just OK with it, or not OK with it?
(Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Republican
caucusgoers
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Very/fairly
enthusiastic
30
58
31
56
23*
31
58
44
Just/not OK
with it
69
40
65
43
56
63
40
56
Very
enthusiastic
Fairly
enthusiastic
Just OK
with it
Not OK
with it
10
30
12
35
10
16
35
32
20
28
19
21
12
15
23
12
34
28
35
23
30
34
25
19
35
12
30
20
26
29
15
37
Not
Sure
2
2
4
1
21
7
2
1
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Regardless of which candidate you support as your first choice, which one do you believe would: (Read each
item. Read list if necessary. Rotate.)
3
4
4
7
5
5
2
4
3
21
24
23
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
6
6
5
11
12
14
1
2
2
37
28
32
6
11
6
24
17
35
12
15
26
10
17
10
5
10
1
2
2
20
21
1
-
2
1
2
-
5
2
16
5
1
-
16
50
15
13
18
19
14
19
Which ONE of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best as you think about which candidate to
support: (Rotate list.)
Among likely
Republican
caucusgoers
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Tea
party
Evangelical
conservative
Mainstream
Republican
Not
sure
20
33
38
22
24
30
32
38
35
9
10
Regardless of whom you support, for each of the following, please tell me if you have become more comfortable or less
comfortable with the scenario, or if youve not really changed. (Read items. Rotate.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
More
Less
comfortable comfortable
No
change
Not
sure
35
50
37
49
48
29
45
28
15
20
17
21
2
1
2
1
32
49
17
48
27
23
If the race for the Republican nomination eventually becomes a two-person contest between [Donald Trump] and [Ted
Cruz], which one would you most want to see become the nominee? (Rotate candidate names.)
Rep CGs
35
53
7
5
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Neither (VOL)
Not sure
Recently, Governor Terry Branstad said Ted Cruz should be defeated in the Iowa caucuses. Did this comment make you
more likely or less likely to support Ted Cruz, or did it make no difference?
Rep CGs
11
11
77
1
More likely
Less likely
No difference
Not sure
Donald Trump [announced he would not attend] [did not attend] the final Republican debate before the caucuses on Fox
News. Do you approve or disapprove of his decision, or do you not care? (Question added after first night in the field,
so based on a smaller number of respondents; n=433. MoE: +/-4.7% pts.)
Rep CGs
24
29
46
1
Approve
Disapprove
Dont care
Not sure
Im going to mention some things about some of the candidatesthings that might be a concern. For each,
please tell me if this bothers you or does not bother you. (Rotate.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Until recently, Ted Cruz held dual citizenship with the U.S. and
Canada
Four of Donald Trumps businesses have filed for bankruptcy
Ted Cruz borrowed up to a million dollars from Wall Street banks to
finance his 2012 Senate campaign and failed to fully disclose it
Donald Trump has said in the past he was pro-choice and would not
have banned late-term abortions
Ted Cruz does not support the Renewable Fuel Standard
Donald Trumps familiarity with the Bible and matters of faith have
been questioned
Ted Cruzs personality puts a lot of people off, including many of his
colleagues of both parties in the Senate
Donald Trump supports the use of eminent domain to take private
property for public or private projects, with compensation to the
landowners
Bothers
Does not
bother
Not
sure
22
34
75
64
3
1
54
44
56
43
40
51
4
6
36
62
33
65
60
35
Dem CG
50
38
12
21
67
11
System works
System rigged against all but very rich and powerful
Not sure
Compared to:
Study #2132
500 Republican likely caucusgoers
503 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.4 percentage points for each party
Study #2130
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for each party
Study #2128
401 Republican likely caucusgoers
402 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error 4.9 percentage points for each party
Study #2125
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error 4.9 percentage points for Democrats
Study #2122
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points
Study #2118
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.7 percentage points for Democrats
Study #2113
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for each party
Study #2104
425 Republican likely caucusgoers
426 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.8 percentage points for each party