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Gwendolyn Scott
Professor John ONeill
English 298
March 14th, 2016
Kurlantzicks Faulty Predictions: What the Future Really Holds for Democracy
It has often been discussed by both historians and political scientists whether or not
democracy is the one true form of government, whether it will last forever or simply fade into the
background. Many take into accountwith good reasonthe current state of democracy around
the world in order to make their predictions. As a member of this discussion, in his book,
Democracy in Retreat, Joshua Kurlantzick says that democracy is on the decline as a form of
government due to many factors of the modern world. The most important point he makes is that
there are many cases around the world of corrupt democracies that prove his overall statement
that democracy itself is failing as a system. Though Kurlantzick brings up some interesting cases
in his book there is no way to assert whether or not he is correct or incorrect in his overarching
thesis. The reason this is true is because the future of politics and the world as a whole holds so
many unknowns that we can not predict anything accurately and there are far too many
contradictions between recent cases in countries around the world for any of Kurlantizicks
points to be held up even in the current day. This makes it impossible and even problematic to
choose to support solely on one side of Kurlantzicks argument. Examples of differences
between the situations around the world can be seen clearly in the political systems of current
and past Uganda, Taiwan, and Myanmar along with their plans for future progress or lack
thereof. The fact that these countries are in very different places politically when it comes to
system of government proves that there is no completely irrefutable argument for or against

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Kurlantzicks statement because so much of it depends on the setting of the future governments
and world order.
First, before we address specific cases of democracy around the world, it is important to
fully understand what Kurlantzick meant when he said that democracy is in retreat. In his book,
when Kurlantzick addressed his theory that democracy is essentially on the decline, he says that
this pattern of decline can be seen clearly through the examples of governments that he describes
throughout the book. He says that democracy not only means the political system it describes but
also includes democratic political culture, which includes respect for the concept of a loyal
opposition, support for democratic political institutions, and interest in and access to political
participation among other components. (Kurlantzick) This immediately brings to mind
governments like the United States and others that have often had scandals and corruption rooted
in their politics. He says that these countries prove that democracy can not have a permanent
hold on the world as some political theorists like Francis Fukuyama argue. As he describes in his
article and book of the same title, The End of History Fukuyama claims that the world will enter
into a sort of peace due to the universal adoption of democracy. He says that it is only natural
that countries will all want to become democratic eventually because it is the most perfect form
of government. Fukuyama argues the exact opposite of Kurlantzick, saying that democracy is
actually on the incline and always will be. This argument, the same as that of Kurlantzick ignores
all future possible developments and instead focuses on only what we can see now.
Uganda is a perfect example of what Kurlantzick describes as a decline in democracy.
Throughout the past Uganda has struggled with creating a stable form of government. Since their
independence in 1962, Uganda has gone through multiple dictatorships, a coup, military rule,
and other terrifying systems of oppression. According the Transparency Internationals

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corruption index, Uganda ranks 139 out of 167 countries and has actually declined into a lower
status in the last year according to the comparison of the last four years data. In a more tangible
sense their desperate state can be seen in last years general election. Uganda voted to reelect
their president who has been in power since 1986, Yoweri Museveni. His administration has a
very long history of incidents of corruption, voter fraud, voting irregularity, arrests of foreign
reporters, a climate of voter intimidation and repeated arrests of members of the opposition party
(Gettleman). An example of this can be seen in the recent arrest of Kizza Besigye the leading
political opponent to Museveni who was arrested at a rally in February. His arrest was because
A 2013 law effectively banned the freedom to assemble, ordering organizers of public
meetings to notify the police three days beforehand with details about time, place, route and
attendance (Kron). In addition to this, Museveni is recognized at being practically dictator by
many members of the international community including the United States. This obvious leaning
towards dictatorship along with the lack of active political participation or opposition and the
actual banning of an internationally recognized right is clear proof that democracy is on the
decline, at least in Uganda.
In contrast to the case in Uganda, Taiwan shows that there is hope for democracy and
action being taken to make legitimate democracy a reality in a country that was previously
extremely corrupt. Until the late 1980s, Taiwan was ruled by a one party system, with the KMT
(Kuomintang) ruling, a conservative nationalist party which was strongly anti-communist. They
ruled by martial law, stomping out all dissent through political terror, and disguising all of this as
temporary provisions aimed to deal with the communist rebellion. This gave the party plenty
of support in their use of force against opponents and their blatant disregard of the constitution.
In 1992 Taiwan began its transition to democracy. The use of martial law was repealed and

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national leaders were elected by free election. The first of these elections brought Lee Teng-hui
to power in 1996. Moreover, since the change in ruling parties, judicial independence has been
guaranteed and anti-corruption agencies have been strengthened considerably. Most importantly
however, there was a political turnover in 2000 through an anti-corruption movement that elected
Chen Ding-nan as head of the Justice Ministry. His election is key because it shows that the
government is truly democratic as it experienced a significant party control switch. Put quite
simply, In Taiwan, engaging in acts of corruption is far riskier now than it was twenty years
ago. (Gbel) As can be seen in last years election, this trend has not been halted. The
Democratic progressive party was elected to a majority in the legislature. This is the first time
that the majority in the legislature and the presidency match in party alignment. The fact that
Taiwan has been in such an upward trend towards true democracy for almost thirty years shows
that Kurlantzick must be wrong. How can democracy be on the decline if there is so much
progress towards it?
Like Taiwan, Myanmar demonstrates a case against Kurlantzicks argument but also
shows that it is possible for a country to come back to democracy even after they fell back into
corruption. In 1990 there was a momentous election in Myanmar that elected Aung San Suu Kyi,
a member of The National League for Democracy. She won with a landslide victory through a
democratic election. Unfortunately, the military intervened and announced the election invalid
and put Kyi under house arrest in order to keep her political influence quiet. This military control
quickly led to a governmental system of military authoritarianism that lasted until 2012 when
they once again tried to have free elections, this time however, they were deemed successful
(Myanmar In Transition, 2013). This election brought representatives from the National
League from Democracy into the legislature and parliament. In addition, this election brought

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Kyi from being a political prisoner into becoming a national parliamentarian. The fact that the
government brought Kyi out of her exile from the political sphere into being the leader of the
opposition shows how true Myanmars change towards democracy is because they are able to
accept and cooperate with contradicting political opinions. In addition, the elections of last year
have shown that Myanmar will continue this process with fever as they elected 86% of the seats
in the Assembly of the Union to go to the National League of Democracy.
After having analyzed the situations of all three of these countries, it is clear that there is
no real way to truly side fully with or against Kurlantzicks argument. When he says that
democracy is on the decline he is proposing that we accept this ultimatum that is impossible to
disprove or prove without serious contradictions. In Uganda we see the almost entire lack of
democracy as Museveni prepares to take on his thirtieth year as president in a clear
dictatorship. In Taiwan we see hope and progress over the last couple decades as they have
elected democratic leaders and have been on an extreme anti-corruption campaign since 2000.
Myanmar shows us the most complex transition towards democracy, they have been trying to
have free elections since 1990 but were stopped by military intervention. Finally, in 2012 they
had free elections and brought previous political prisoner, Kyi in as leader of the opposition party
showing that they are moving towards a working democracy. Through all these examples it is
clear that the world does not move as one unit, everyone is going different ways, some towards
democracy and some headed in the complete other direction. Though it is impossible to predict
accurately what will happen in the future when it comes to government systems, it is certainly
not going to be a homogenous world like the one Fukuyama describes, nor will democracy
disappear completely like Kurlantzicks argument suggests.

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Works Cited
"Corruption Perceptions Index 2015." Transparency International. Transparency International,
2015. Web. 08 Mar. 2016.
Fukuyama, Francis. The End of History? Washington, D.C.: National Affairs, 1989. Print.
Gettleman, Jeffrey. "Instead of Democracy, Uganda Moves Toward Dictatorship Light." New
York Times [New York City] 18 Feb. 2016: A11. New York Times. The New York
Times Company, 18 Feb. 2016. Web. 7 Mar. 2016.
Gbel, Christian. Anticorruption in Taiwan: Process-tracing Report. Vienna: Vienna U, 2015.
Print. 8 Mar. 2016.
Kron, Josh. "Opposition Candidate Briefly Held Before Ugandas Presidential Vote." New York
Times. The New York Times Company, 15 Feb. 2016. Web. 7 Mar. 2016.
Kurlantzick, Joshua. Democracy in Retreat: The Revolt of the Middle Class and the Worldwide
Decline of Representative Government. New Haven: Yale UP, 2013. Print.
"Myanmar In Transition: Polity, People & Processes." Panorama: Insights into Asian and
European Affairs (2013). Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Singapore. Web. 8 Mar. 2016.