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:

1 2
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3
3
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: ( 1971 )2005
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68
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13 15
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19
19 27

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20 26

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21 23
23 24
24 25
27 30
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29
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:

( 1971 ) 1980
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( . )2005-1971

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12

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 ( ) 1973 1972 1971

. "
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- 13 -

 ()1
( 1971 ( ) 1980 )

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

92.4
88.6
94.3
88
218.4
254.4
263.4
277.8
354.6
504.7

30.85
32.05
33.16
34.46
40.74
110.28
59.68
58.98
58.43
74.77

642.9
1366.4 1072.6
623
1369.5 1153.4
509.7
1555.2 1382.5
697.4
3400.9 2916.5
1440.2
3974.3 3562.2
1784.7
5243 4955.3
2574.2
5858.2 5526.6
2628.9
7017 6709.9
2971.8 11167.2 10588.5
3601.9 15770.7 15440.4

139.3 2031.5
135.1 2092.6
148.5 2434.8
314.1 4883.7
355.3
5636
453.2 7577.9
458.6 8310.5
562.8 10055.8
871 15286.5
1191.3 20433.3

: / /

- 14 -

 ( ) 2
( ) ( )
( 1971 ) 1980

( )

1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

92.4
88.6
94.3
88
218.4
254.4
263.4
277.8
354.6
504.7

123.25 30.85
120.65 32.05
127.46 33.16
122.46 34.46
259.14 40.74
364.68 110.28
323.08 59.68
336.78 58.98
413.03 58.43
579.47 74.77

6.76 1366.4
6.47 1369.5
6.06 1555.2
2.59 3400.9
5.50 3974.3
4.85
5243
4.50 5858.2
3.96
7017
3.18 11167.2
3.20 15770.7

2.26
2.34
2.13
1.01
1.03
2.10
1.02
0.84
0.52
0.47

: / /

- 15 -

9.02
8.81
8.20
3.60
6.52
6.96
5.52
4.80
3.70
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 : 1981 1990

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( ) 830.1 1981" 1980 ( )1191.0

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14

- 16 -

 ( ) 3
( 1980 ( ) 1990 )

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

537.7
779.5
941.4
678.4
837.5
783.3
708.2
1019.6
1035
1024.8

101.76
117.85
158.97
181.62
213.87
235.41
243.1
243.34
290.84
313.92

10125.4
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21522.8
23039.8
22484.7
22979.5
27032.6
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830.1
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1151.1
1140.7
1277.2

50.3
56.6
63.5
68.5
71.4
72.3
82.4
100
106.3
161.2

: / /

- 17 -

 ( ) 4
( ) ( )
( 1980 ) 1990

( )

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

537.7
779.5
941.4
678.4
837.5
783.3
708.2
1019.6
1035
1024.8

101.76
117.85
158.97
181.62
213.87
235.41
243.1
243.34
290.84
313.92

639.46
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1100.37
860.02
1051.37
1018.71
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1262.94
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11346.9
12714.7
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4.74
6.13
7.46
4.66
5.58
5.35
4.02
5.25
5.07
4.49

0.90
0.93
1.26
1.25
1.42
1.61
1.38
1.25
1.43
1.37

: / /

- 18 -

5.64
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8.72
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- 19 -

16

 ( ) 5
( 1991 ( ) 2005 )

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

712.46
1152.41
2756.87
9490.68
53164.9
61948.99
160217.4
224950
393883.3
587035.7
704415
593678.2
263290.1
540900
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18744.6
49814.8
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461.9
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40026.3
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63339.2
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2784330
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6297974.6 34464012.6
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8123672.1 41314568.5
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230184.1 1767106 36585713 17868007.9 47958545.6
315259 2288741 66448860
6400065.6

: / /

- 20 -

 ( ) 6
( ) ( )
( 1991 ) 2005

( )

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

485.6
713.2
1645.8
6218.4
40967.9
45303.5
127669.1
169309.8
290907.7
434753.1
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712.46
1152.41
2756.87
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393883.31
587035.68
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263290.1
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1.32
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0.63
0.51
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1.06
0.77
0.79
0.46
0.54
0.65
0.22
0.32
0.30
0.30
0.38
0.46
0.26
0.61
2.75

: / /

- 21 -

3.34
2.03
1.96
1.35
2.36
2.42
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1.31
1.14
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18

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Y= B0+ B1 X

18 / /2002 / ()79-70
- 23 -

X ( )

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19

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- 24 -

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( )7 -:
Y= - 12038+ 21.2 X
R2= 0.59

. 0.05

21.2

.
( ) 2002-1991
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Y= 699246 + 12.4 X
R2= 0.85

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- 25 -

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1971
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22

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Y= - 39.19+ 0.117 X
R2= 0.64
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1980 -1971

1990 -1981

B0

B1

R2

183.6 -

6.97

=X6.97+ 183.6 -Y

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21.2

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1112

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750.

- 39.2

0.117

=- 39.2+ 0.117 X Y

640.

- 29 -

B0

B1

R2

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12.4

Y= - 699246+12.4 X

0.85

555898

91.3

=555898+ 91.3 X Y

960.

26409

0.154

+0.154 X Y= 26409

0.75

B0

B1

R2

9584300

15.3

Y= 9584300 + 15.3 X

1.00

8263001

107.5

=8263001+107.5 X Y

1.00

134940

0.176

Y= 134940+0.176 X

1.00

2002 -1991

2004-2003

SPSS

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:
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( / ) 1996-1986 / . 2001
- 2 . . 1996 /
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- 5 113 1982 /
162 1959 .
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- 7 /
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- 32 -

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- 33 -