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VARIABLE WEATHER &

CHANGING CLIMATE
W H AT I S H A P P E N I N G T O T H E E A R T H S C L I M AT E ?

TODAYS LESSON
We will learn:
Describe the climate change in the last
150 years.
Describe the natural causes of recent
climate change.
Explain the greenhouse effect.

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE


What is global climate change & how has it
changed?
It refers to the variation or shift in the
global climate or climatic patterns over a
long period of time.
Over the last century, the earth has
warmed by an average of 0.74oC.
The greatest increases occurred after the
1980s.
The period between 1990 and 2010
includes the 10 warmest years that were

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE


What is global climate change & how has it
changed?
It refers to the variation or shift in the
global climate or climatic patterns over a
long period of time.
Over the last century, the earth has
warmed by an average of 0.74oC.
The greatest increases occurred after the
1980s.
The period between 1990 and 2010
includes the 10 warmest years that were
recorded.

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FIGURE 1
A V E R A G E G L O B A L T E M P E R AT U R E ( 1 8 8 0 - 2 0 1 1 )

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FIGURE 2
1 0 WA R M E S T Y E A R S R E C O R D E D

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE


Global warming and cooling
Natural cycles of intense warming and
cooling are evident over millions of years.
These climatic changes due to natural
cycles are known as global warming and
cooling.
Global warming is the increase in global
temperatures over long period of time.
Global cooling is the decrease in global
temperatures over a long period of time.

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FIGURE 3
N AT U R A L C Y C L E S O F G L O B A L W A R M I N G & C O O L I N G

WHAT IS GREENHOUSE EFFECT?


Greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon
which keeps Earth warm enough for life to be
sustained here.
Sun emits shortwave radiation and some of it is
absorbed by the earths surface and heats up as
a result.
The earths surface then emits longwave
radiation.
Greenhouse gases found in the atmosphere
(carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, water
vapour,
ozone,
halocarbons
such
as
chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs)) absorb the longwave
radiation and then re-radiated in it all directions.

WHAT IS GREENHOUSE EFFECT?


Some of this radiation escapes to space, but
most of it is absorbed by other gas molecules in
the atmosphere or by the surface of the Earth.
The energy from longwave radiation is
exchanged numerous times between the
molecules of the atmosphere and the surface of
the earth.
This process helps to regulate the temperature
on Earth and maintain the Earth's average
temperature at around 15oC. This is essential
to life on Earth.

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FIGURE 4
GREENHOUSE EFFECT

WHAT IS ENHANCED
GREENHOUSE EFFECT?
An increase in the concentration of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere.
This leads to a rise in Earth's average global
temperatures, known as global warming.
This is largely caused by an increase in human
activities that bring about increases in levels of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as
greenhouse gases are released at a far greater
rate than that of natural emissions of
greenhouse gases.
When greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
increase, they trap more heat and lead to
increase in global temperatures.

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FIGURE 5
ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Natural Causes
Earths climate has changed due to natural causes
such as variations in solar output and volcanic
eruptions.
1. Variations in solar output
Sunspots
Sunspots are cooler regions on the Suns surface
that appear as dark spots and where the
magnetic field is much stronger.
They are caused by intense magnetic activity.
Due to the strong magnetic field, the magnetic
pressure increases while the surrounding
atmospheric pressure decreases.

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Natural Causes
1. Variations in solar output
Sunspots
This in turn lowers the temperature
relative to its surroundings because the
concentrated magnetic field inhibits the
flow of hot, new gas from the Sun's
interior to the surface.
As such, the areas surrounding the
sunspots radiate more energy, which
imply higher emission of solar radiation.

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FIGURE 6
Y E A R LY A V E R A G E D S U N S P O T N U M B E R F O R A P E R I O D O F 4 0 0 Y E A R S ( 1 6 1 0 2010).

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Natural Causes
1. Variations in solar output
Sunspots
Therefore, more sunspots = higher solar
activity = higher solar radiation = higher
temperature (warmer)
Sunspots increase and decrease through
an average cycle of 11 years. Dating
back to 1749, we have experienced 23
full solar cycles. We are now into the
24thcycle.

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FIGURE 7
G L O B A L M E A N T E M P E R AT U R E & S O L A R A C T I V I T Y

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Natural Causes
1. Variations in solar output
Solar activity and global temperatures
The solar activity cycle is associated with
the earths cycles of high and low global
temperatures.
A peak in the number of sunspots in 2000,
which coincided with higher solar activity
and global temperatures also showed an
increase during this period.
When the solar activity cycle reached its
minimum, global temperatures were also
lower in the same time period.

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Natural Causes
2. Volcanic eruptions
Volcanic eruptions release large amounts of
carbon dioxide, water vapour, sulphur dioxide, dust
and ashes.
Sulphur dioxide reacts with water to form sulphurbased particles + dust and ashes reflects
sunlight back into space ==> results in global
dimming
Global dimming is the gradual reduction in the
amount of sunlight reaching the earths surface,
and this phenomenon temporarily cools the earth
for months or years.

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Natural Causes
2. Volcanic eruptions
Eg: Mount Pinatubo in Philippines erupted in
1991 and released 17 million tonnes of sulphur
dioxide into the atmosphere. Temperature in
northern hemisphere was lowered by 0.6C.
This temporary lowering of global temperatures
lasted for 2 years in some locations.

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Human Causes
Anthropogenic factors have contributed to
the increase in concentration of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere, leading to
enhanced greenhouse effect and thus
climate change.
Anthropogenic factors are factors caused by
human activities such as:
- burning of fossil fuels
- deforestation
- changing land use

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Human Causes
1. Burning Fossil Fuels
Fossil fuels are formed from dead organic
matter that has decomposed over
millions of years
~

Eg: oil, coal, natural gas

The burning of fossil fuels produce more


than 80% of worlds energy that is used
for industries, transportation, domestic
and commercial activities.
~ Eg: in China, USA, Canada, UK,
Singapore

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Human Causes
1. Burning Fossil Fuels
High carbon content in fossil fuels
contribute to increase in greenhouse
gases (GHG) as large amounts of CO2 is
released when burnt.
It is the highest contributor of GHG.
The increase in GHG (CO2, Nitrous oxide,
methane) in the atmosphere traps more
heat increase in global temperature
(global warming)

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FIGURE 8
TRENDS IN CO2 EMISSIONS, 1949-2011

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Human Causes
2. Deforestation

The loss of forests due to removal or


clearance of trees in forested areas.
Forests are cleared at an alarming
rate for many reasons/uses such as
making
of
products,
building
materials, timber, mining, urban
development & agricultural activities.

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Human Causes
2. Deforestation

As forests take in CO2 and give out O2


via photosynthesis, the large-scale
removal of forests will bring about an
increase in the CO2 amounts in the
atmosphere.
The increase in GHG in the atmosphere
traps more heat increase in global
temperature (global warming)
2nd largest contributor of GHG

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Human Causes
2. Deforestation

Soil = one of the largest sources of


carbon
Carbon in the soil is accumulated
through decay of organic matter (dead
leaves & animals)
Deforestation = vegetation cover
soil exposed to sunlight soil
temperature & rate of carbon
oxidation in soil

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Human Causes
2. Deforestation

Carbon oxidation is a process by which


carbon in soil reacts with oxygen in the
atmosphere to produce CO2
Increase in rate of carbon oxidation leads
to increase in rate at which CO2 is released
from soil into the atmosphere
Thus GHG = traps more heat
increase in global temperature (global
warming)

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Human Causes
3. Changing Land Use
Agriculture
Practice of cultivating land, producing crops
and raising livestock.
Wet rice cultivation use of organic fertilisers
release methane & Nitrous oxides during
decomposition
Decomposition high due to high moisture
content
Inorganic fertilisers amount of nitrous oxide
and is exposed during ploughing

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Human Causes
3. Changing Land Use
Agriculture
cattle ranching animals digestive process
release methane (eg: cattles waste gas)
Farm machineries run on fossil fuels which
release CO2 CO2, Nitrous oxide, methane
(GHG)
which
traps
heat

global
temperature (global warming)

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Human Causes
3. Changing Land Use
Industries
Production of goods & services/ manufacturing
burn fossil fuels to produce them
GHG is also released as by products when
goods are produced
GHG traps heat global temperature
(global warming)

WHAT CAUSES CLIMATE CHANGE?


Human Causes
3. Changing Land Use
Urbanisation
Increasing number of people living in urban
areas such as cities & towns
Large amount of fossil fuels are burnt to provide
energy for household activities
High concentration of cars/ transportation
contribute to GHG in atmosphere
Constructing
infrastructure
&
producing
construction materials also release GHG
GHG traps heat global temperature (global
warming)

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE


Changes in global climate have an
impact on the survival of flora and fauna
and also people.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE


1. Melting ice caps & rising sea levels
With global temperature increase (global
warming), it is estimated that 50% of the Arctic
Sea ice could disappear by 2050.
Glaciers are retreating and amount of ice cover
has decreased in the polar regions.
The melting of these ice bergs has caused sea
levels to rise.
Ice melt sea level ( 1 to 2 mm/ yr)
Low-lying coastal regions are vulnerable to
rising sea levels.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE


1. Melting ice caps & rising sea levels
This may result in loss of land area and
possibility of flooding
~ According to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), 33% of coastal land
and wetland habitats are likely to be lost in
the next hundred years if sea levels continue
to rise at current rates.
Lives and properties may be lost as two-thirds of
the worlds largest cities are located in coastal
areas & over 600 million people worldwide live
in areas less than 10m above sea level.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE


1. Melting ice caps & rising sea levels
Increasing temperatures have caused changes
in breeding patterns of animals.
Increasing temperatures may make some
habitats not liveable by some animals. These
animals may be forced to migrate and may be
threatened with extinction if they cannot adapt
to either the changes or new environment.

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FIGURE 9
S E A L E V E L R I S E D U E T O G LO B A L WA R M I N G

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FIGURE 10
LOSS OF L A N D A R EA DU E TO SEA L EV E L RI SE

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE


2. More frequent extreme weather events
Extreme weather events are severe and rare
weather phenomena that result in significant
economic losses and the loss of lives.
They include heat waves, floods, droughts and
tropical cyclones.
These events have increased in the last few
decades.
The increase is believed to be due to higher land
and sea surface temperatures that result in
greater amounts of water vapour and latent heat
in a warmer atmosphere, which serves as a
powerful driving force for extreme weather

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE


2. More frequent extreme weather events
Heat Waves and Droughts
Places that are hot and dry experiences
droughts with global temperature increase, as
high temperatures increase evaporation rates,
causing rivers and lakes to dry up quickly.
Humidity will be lower, lesser water bodies and
precipitation levels also decrease.
If the
situation prolongs, droughts will occur. E.g.
Sahel
Heat wave is an unusually prolonged period of
hot weather. This can lead to deaths and even
cause forest fires which lead to destruction of
the environment.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE


2. More frequent extreme weather events
Severe Storms
Wetter regions get wetter due to increased
evaporation rates caused by increased in global
temperatures.
This increases rainfall and is
likely to cause flood for these regions. E.g.
China, SEA, Western USA
With global temperature rise, the average
temperature rise (27 degrees Celsius) creates an
condition that promotes the formation of tropical
storms. As such, more frequent tropical storms
are experiences, resulting to large-scale flooding
and destruction of homes, industries and
infrastructure.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE


3. Spread of
diseases

some

infectious

insect-borne

Increased temperatures and rainfall in various


parts of the world may provide favourable
conditions for insects and pests such as
mosquitoes to thrive.
The warmer temperatures
multiply & spread.

allow

them

to

Could lead to increases in the spread of insectborne diseases such as dengue fever, malaria
and yellow fever, which are transmitted to
humans and animals.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE


4. Lengthening the growing season in certain
regions
Increasing temperatures have caused changes
in flowering patterns of plants
Higher temperature = longer growing seasons
It is both advantageous and disadvantageous
Some places may not be able to grow types of
crops they used to grow too warm (eg: apples
& cherries in China)
Others now may be
blackberries in UK)

able

to

do

so (e.g.

RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE


Attempts to slow down Process of Global
Warming at 2 levels
1. International

Kyoto Protocol

Copenhagen Conference

2. National

Singapore

India

RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE


International Strategies Kyoto
Protocol
Kyoto Protocol
Aim: amt of GHG emissions among
developed countries by 5% by 2012
Agreement linked to UNFCCC (United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change)
Legally binding agreement in which the
industrialised nations would have to
their collective GHG emissions by 5% by
2012 compared to 1990

RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE


Kyoto Protocol
different targets set for different countries
Developed countries mainly responsible for
current higher levels of GHG emissions in (early
industrialisation)
so given greater responsibilities to cut GHG
emissions
Obligated to emissions by at least 5% below
their 1990 levels
More abled DCs given additional responsibilities
to help developing countries fund projects to
emissions

RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE


Kyoto Protocol (SUCCESSES)
Many countries met/ exceeded targets set (eg:
Austria, Finland, Greece)
Countries required to monitor & report GHG
emissions helping them be on target
Successful in driving sustainable development
certified emissions reduction (CER) credits given
by Clean Development mechanism (CDM) to
countries carrying out emission reduction projects
1 credit = 1 tonne of CO2
Helped DCs emissions when they take on
projects in LDCs

RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE


Kyoto Protocol (LIMITATIONS)
There were countries within the protocol that have
not met targets (Denmark, Sweden and UK)
Not compulsory for countries with lower GHG
emissions to support other countries
Eg: not necessary to share low emissions
technology with countries with high emissions
Thus other countries may not reach target easily
There were still countries that have not ractified
the protocol (USA & Canada (pulled out in 2011))
The new amendments on the Protocol in 2012 is
not yet in force

RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE


International Strategies Copenhagen
Conference
Copenhagen Conference
United Nations Climate Change Conference
held in 2009 at Copenhagen
To improve measures developed for Kyoto
Protocol to deal with climate change issues

RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE


Copenhagen Conference (Successes)
Drew impt political leaders to discuss issues of
climate change
Copenhagen Accord drawn up international
agreement with long-term goal
AIM: keep any increase in global mean max tempt
to within 2C of global tempt before 1850
Targets for GHG reduction successfully set
DCs committed to GHG emissions by various
amts by 2020

RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE


Copenhagen Conference (Successes)
DCs promise to fund actions to GHG emissions
(help LDCs)
provide US$30 billion to LDCs from 2010 2020
Mobilise long term financial aid of a further US$
100 billion a yr 2020
Increased worldwide public awareness of climate
change
Idea that addressing climate change is bad for
business buried now: Green Growth as prevailing
economic model of our time

RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE


Copenhagen Conference (LIMITATIONS)
Pledge to GHG emissions not sufficient to
emissions to within 2C of tempt before 1850
No agreement made on how to (strategies) reduce
GHG (difficult for countries to take actions)
Copenhagen Accord not legally binding many
DCs refuse to sign the Accord
Targets set by countries are only guidelines not a
condition that must be fulfilled
Results: Many countries did not keep targets

RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE


National Strategies - Singapore
Singapore Green Plan 2012
Green Mark Scheme
Plant a Tree Programme
National Strategies - India
National Urban Transport Policy (NUTP)
Energy Labelling Programme
The Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment

RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE


International - agreements EG: Kyoto Protocol
aim to reduce amount of GHG emissions among
developed countries
Aim: emission by at least 5% by 2012
Governments - use public education to raise
awareness on negative impacts of climate change,
how to combat global warming
Pass laws to impact of climate change
(sustainable development)
Eg: SG compulsory for all vehicles to pass smoke
emission test, catalytic converters for all vehicles

GATEWAY2:
WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE EARTHS
CLIMATE?
What we have learnt:
Describe the climate change in the last 150
years.
Explain the greenhouse effect.
Describe the natural causes of recent climate
change.
Explain
how
human
activities
such
as
deforestation, burning of fossil fuels, rice
cultivation
and
cattle
farming
increase
greenhouse gases and lead to enhanced
greenhouse effect.

GATEWAY2:
WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE EARTHS
CLIMATE?

What we have learnt:


Explain the impact of climate change such
as sea level rise, extreme weather events
and human health.
Describe the responses to climate change.

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