Energy Conversion and Management 81 (2014) 363373

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Energy Conversion and Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enconman

Wind prediction using Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF):

A case study in Peru
Carlos Gonzlez-Mingueza , Francisco Muoz-Gutirrez
Universidad de Mlaga, Departamento de Ingeniera Elctrica, Ampliacin Campus de Teatinos, C/ Dr. Ortiz Ramos, s/n, 29071 Mlaga Espaa, Spain

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:
Received 4 December 2013
Accepted 11 February 2014
Available online 15 March 2014
Keywords:
Wind speed prediction
WRF model
Wind energy
Prediction horizons

a b s t r a c t
As the installed capacity of wind power in the SEIN (National Interconnected Electric System) of Peru
increases (developing country), very useful predictors for developing certain wind resource are obtained
to provide stability to the system. The performance of WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting version
3.4) forecast winds was evaluated using different parameterization options in the department of Ica
(Peru) to minimize the uncertainty of the prediction. The complexity of the terrain and the resolution
of the selected domain aspects were considered in the model. The wind rose and the frequency histograms were used to evaluate the model and it was noted that the wind frequency for low and intermediate speeds was underestimated. The wind direction was simulated in a similar manner but specically
for dominant wind regimes. For low wind speeds, the characterization of wind direction is very subjective
with large deviations obtained between the simulation alternatives. The best numerical conguration is
one that does not exceed 24 h; but where the error increases with the complexity of the terrain leading to
the lack of accurate data. The wind direction is simulated by the model especially with strong dominant
sectors. In January, it was detected signicant frequencies in low speeds (12 m/s). In these cases, the
characterization was subjective and could be higher the deviation between observed and simulated
results. In June, the simulated wind speeds are constant below 4 m/s and above 11 m/s, obtaining similar
results in dominant wind sectors. Increasing the resolution of the simulation domain was not sufcient to
improve the efciency of the model.
2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
In Peru, the energy crisis has been a huge concern in the last
decade. The instability of the system and the long distance from
Abbreviations: ACM2, Asymmetric Convective Model; ANFIS, Adaptive NeuroFuzzy Inference System; ANN, Articial Neural Networks; AR, Auto-Regressive;
ARIMA, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average; ARMA, Auto-Regressive
Moving Average; AWNN, Adaptive Wavelet Neural Network; BPANN, Backpropagation ANN; Bias, Systematic Error; DEM, Discrete Element Method; EDFM, Energy
Demand Forecast Model; ETA, Estimated Time of Arrival; FAA, Federal Aviation
Administration; FDDA, Four-dimensional Data Assimilation; FSL, Forecast Systems
Laboratory; FWA, Force Weather Agency; HEQ, Hours equivalents of wind; GA,
Genetic Algorithms; LSM, Land Surface Model; MAE, Mean Absolute Error; MM5,
Mesoscale Model Fifth; MYJ, Mellore Yamadae Janjic; NCEP, National Centers for
Environmental Prediction; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; NRL, Naval Research Laboratory; NWP, Numerical Weather Prediction; PANN,
Probabilistic ANN; PBL, Planetary Boundary Layer; PX, Pleime Xiu; RBFANN, Radial
Basis Function ANN; RMSE, Root Mean Square Error; RUC, Rapid up date cycle; SCM,
Soft Computing Methods; SL, Surface layer; SOFM, Self-organizing feature maps;
SVM, Support Vector Machine; WAsP, Wind Atlas analysis and application Program;
WRF, Weather Research and Forecasting; YSU, Yousei University scheme.
Corresponding author. Tel.: +34 91 5174649.
E-mail address: carlos.gonzalez@uma.es (C. Gonzlez-Mingueza).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2014.02.024
0196-8904/ 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

high voltage networks between the north (border with Ecuador)

and the south (border with Chile) of over 2400 km; ensures that
planning for the electrical sector is of priority concern at present.
The COES (Committee of Economic Operation of Interconnected
System of Peru) and the MINEM (Ministry of Energy and Mines
of Peru) has a commitment to nding a solution over the long term
for Generation and Transmission Plans in order to increase the installed capacity of 590012,300 MW by 2018 through new renewable sources. The portion of wind power in the local energy plan is
minimal, whilst natural gas and hydroelectricity account for 48%
and 45% respectively. Therefore, the large share of renewable energy is covered by hydropower. Peru is a developing country and
has not given attention to the exploration of non-conventional
renewable resources. There are now more than 160 MW connected
to the national grid and 210 MW under construction, and
1800 MW in exploration [1]. The wind speed proles of Peru have
high variability over the country with the biggest constant wind
speeds being in the north of the country (Piura) and South (Ica).
Both the mapping and modeling of speed are fundamental to
the operation and design of new farms [2]. The optimization of
nancial resources in the exploration phase requires a very

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C. Gonzlez-Mingueza, F. Muoz-Gutirrez / Energy Conversion and Management 81 (2014) 363373

detailed study of the characteristics of the winds and the possible

location of wind turbines [3]. In various regions, the meteorological
data are obtained by continuous monitoring via terrestrial or satellite stations [4].
In last ve years, the study of wind development and the energy
related with this has been a topic of great interest for researchers
and developers in developing countries [5]. The information in
the exploration and production of non-renewable resources are
still being evaluated as a fundamental aspect of the growth and
progress of a country [6].
In Peru, the SENAMHI (National Service of Meteorology and
Hydrology of Peru) is responsible for the measurement and storage
of meteorological parameters, has 30 stations at a height of 100 m
for measuring wind speed and direction and other meteorological
data relevant to the exploitation of this renewable resource. 20 of
these stations are located in the north and 10 in the south of Peru.
Table 1 displays the wind potential of Peru made in 2009 in the 25
departments of Peru, where it is shown that there is a total potential of 77,124 MW as shown in the second column (excluding the
offshore area). The model analysis is performed in the department
of Ica fundamentally. It should be mentioned, which is considered
the useful power to the fraction of the total power theoretically
feasible practical unimpeded [7].
In a micro-scale level study of a wind farm, the numbers of
these constraints is very large and have to be studied in situ [8]. Given the extent of the Peruvian territory, limited and very clear criteria should be used to lter the locations which obviously cannot
be a wind farm. The areas which have been removed from this ltering calculation are one or more of the following conditions:
Altitude less than 3000 m.a.s.l.
Inclination equal or greater than 20%.
Belonging to a population center or a town.
Be located in a conservation area, archaeological or dumping
site.
Not to be close to rivers, streams or lakes.

After applying this lter, the calculated value obtained for

usable wind potential of Peru is around 22,452 MW; this is shown

Table 1
Wind potential in Peru in MW (total and usable).
Department

Total power (MW)

Usable power (MW)

Amazonas
Ancash
Apurmac
Arequipa
Ayacucho
Cajamarca
Callao
Cuzco
Huancavelica
Hunuco
Ica
Junn
La Libertad
Lambayeque
Lima
Loreto
Madre de Dios
Moquegua
Pasco
Piura
Puno
San Martn
Tacna
Tumbes
Ucayali
Total

1380
8526
0
1992
114
18,360
0
0
0
54
18,360
48
4596
2880
1434
0
0
144
0
17,628
162
504
942
0
0
77,124

6
138
0
1158
0
3450
0
0
0
0
9144
0
282
564
156
0
0
0
0
7554
0
0
0
0
0
22,452

in the third column of Table 1. In studies, the wind variability is obtained by using different Weibull and Rayleigh distribution analytical models [9], multiple regression models and linear, sARIMA
(stochastic simulation model and autoregressive integrated moving average).
This paper aims to develop a tool to predict the wind resource
with a prediction horizon of 24 h, so as to generate information
for dispatching loads to national grid. To the extent that the installed wind power in the national electricity system increases, it
is necessary to develop tools for predicting wind resources [10].
The prediction of the generation of existing wind farms and those
to be installed in the future will reveal more precisely the amount
of electricity to be supplied with wind power [11]. From the point
of view of the wind resource, we want to know the characteristics
of the ow in the atmospheric boundary layer [12]. The more powerful wind turbines built today for grid connection are commercial
towers between 30 and 160 m. In this paper we present numerical
modeling results from WRF application (version 3.4) on two (2)
locations in the department of Ica Peru, where one location has
simple topography and the other complex. The results of the
numerical model were compared with eld measurements of wind
speed and direction. Moreover, it calculates the distribution of errors from the generation of 24 h forecast of the locations mentioned below.
Another advantage of the SCM (Support Vector Machine) is not
requiring knowledge of the wind data [13]. In this group, the ANN
(Articial Neural Networks) has been used in various applications
of forecasting such as: Backpropagation ANN, Probabilistic ANN,
Support Vector Machine, Radial Basis Function ANN, Extended Kalman Filter, Self-Organization Feature Maps and adaptive resonance
theory [1417]. Several optimizations techniques, e.g., Genetic
Algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization have been improved
to adequately predict the neurons weight whist applying the ANN
method [18]. The fuzzy logic model [19,20] is applied for various
methods of forecast. Bivona et al. developed models for simulation
researches to forecast speed 24-h ahead. In some cases, the obtained predictions conclude no degradation during the lead time
[45].
This paper is organized as follows: Section 2 presents the several models of wind power prediction, Section 3 shows the implementation methodology WRF model, Section 4 presents the results
and discussion, and nally Section 5 the conclusions of research.

2. Review of various models of wind power prediction

Actually, there are several methods of prediction of wind power.
In this research, a basic comparison between ANN, ARMA models
and ANFIS for wind power with different prediction horizons is
shown in [21,22]. Li [23] suggested using a method combining
Bayesian and ANN models and obtained a better prediction of wind
speed. Fadare applied a model for the forecast of the wind speed in
Nigeria where the performance for a non-variable horizon had the
best result in comparison with single models [24].
Blonbou applied an adaptation of a short term wind power
model by using ANN as a predictor Adaptive learning and the simulation of approximation of Gauss [25]. The analysis concluded
that the ANN works better than the reference method and allows
a better prediction of the interval. Singh and Bhaska simulated
an Adaptive Neural Network based on a forecasting model that
uses the decomposition of the wind speed [26]. The model AWNN
has greater accuracy compared to conventional methods ANN
[27,28].
Giebel et al. demonstrated the different techniques of shortterm prediction of wind power [29]. They claimed that the wind
power using a forecasting tool does not correspond to a uniform

C. Gonzlez-Mingueza, F. Muoz-Gutirrez / Energy Conversion and Management 81 (2014) 363373

tool, since it depends largely on the physical location of the wind

farm. If you install this farm on a new site you require considerable
effort to adjust these models [30].
Predicting wind power means predicting wind ow speed in the
boundary layer height above the axis of the turbine. Then, from
knowledge of the speed and the height of the axis and the curve
of operation of the equipment and applying a modeling the wake
interference, is obtained in the wind farm generation [31].
This paper includes a brief description of the measurement network used for validation; the discrete levels are described in grids
used in addition to their parameterization, nally presenting the
validation of the results.
2.1. General review of wind generation
The generation of electrical energy from wind resource refers to
the transformation of the kinetic energy contained in the atmospheric air ow into electric energy. Eq. (1) presents the power
generated by a wind turbine.

Cp A q v 3
2

where Cp, power coefcient; A, blade swept area (m2); q, air density
(kg/m3); v, speed at the axis height (m).
The power curve of the wind turbine is part of the information
submitted by the manufacturers of wind turbines according to IEC
61400 [32], we have that the power generated is proportional to
the average speed at hub height. Therefore, we dene the penetration of wind power system according to the installed power generation capacity, shown in Eq. (2):

fcapacity %

C wind
C total

where Cwind, is the installed wind generation capacity in MW, and

Ctotal, the total installed generation capacity in the electrical system
in MW. This penetration rate is a general indicator that characterizes the level of participation of the general wind in the system [33].
Fig. 1 shows the energy demand in Peru corresponding to
February 2012 (blue right scale) and secondly the simulation of
the generation associated with 150 MW (red left scale) of installed wind power, as can be see the uctuating nature of the
wind resource development requires prediction tools for power
system dispatch.
According to the expected wind power to be installed in the
next ve years; which will be approximately 1500 MW; we can
achieve a penetration rate of over 12% per year which implies
the need for predictive tools wind resource.

Fig. 1. Demand for wind power in February 2012.

365

2.2. Prediction of very short term and short term

Development of a predictive tool, involves generating information of what will happen in the future in terms of the description of
the time evolution of a variable p, from the information available
today and in the past.
The variable p corresponds to a variable that evolves continuously and is measured in terms of a discrete time series {ph t e Z},
corresponding Z to series value in time t [34].
The time series associated with the generation of electricity
from wind pt, is considered the time series associated with the
instantaneous values or mean values of the generation of a wind
turbine, a wind farm or a particular generation location.
In general, information is presented on an hourly basis 24 h, and
so the values in this work will be presented in terms of hourly
average values.
The prediction of a variable p performed in an instant t for a
^tk=t also will notice p
^t k=t.
prediction horizon t + k, it shows p
Be the variable p which can be described at all times (3) by a
deterministic value x; fx; x 2 Rng,

p hx

If we are interested in the time evolution of a variable as a function of ph values taken in the past [t m, t], the variable pt and a set
of variables xt ; fxt ; xt 2 Rng, would consider the general formulation of the problem as described in (4),

pt gpt1 ; . . . ptm ; xt1 ; . . . ; xtm et

where et is the associated error in each time step, and m the

time interval used in the past in terms of the information available
to describe the time evolution of the variable pt.

^xtk=t fx xt ; xt1 ; xt2 ; . . . xtm ext

^tk=t F/t
p

where /t is the information available at present, from which the future is predicted. In particular in the case of wind power, since it
knows the operating curve of the equipment and therefore Cp for
wind turbines installed, then the power will be a function of the
speed in the boundary layer and the density in each one of the
points where the wind turbines are installed.
Predictive models of wind generation are divided into two
groups [35].
2.2.1. Physical models
Physical models are based on the use of numerical models. After
generation is modeled from a knowledge park of wind turbine
operation curve and the physical characteristics of the terrain,
and addresses for which they have interference between devices.
Finally, the various states are the predicted stability of the atmosphere, the speed proles and temperature.
2.2.2. Statistical models
Statistical models are based on statistical analysis of the main
variables associated with energy generation, such as wind speed
and temperature at some points of measurement as well as the
measures of wind generation at different point in the network.
Early models generate forecasts allowing higher temporal
length, which are called short duration models (i.e. fuzzy PID)
[47]. However, statistical models have a lower horizon validation
between 2 and 6 h, they are called very short duration models [36].
The prediction with a time horizon of 24 h (24 h) is associated
with a short-term prediction and it is required for the application
of numerical simulation tools circulation of the atmosphere [37].

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C. Gonzlez-Mingueza, F. Muoz-Gutirrez / Energy Conversion and Management 81 (2014) 363373

2.3. National Interconnected Electric System (SEIN) of Peru

In the southern region of Peru there are ten (10) installed wind
measurement stations at different heights (50, 80 and 100 m). The
stations are located in the departments of Ica, Huancavelica and
Ayacucho. In order to simplify matters this study modeled only
two (2) of the ten (10) stations by different criteria: access to terrain, topography, altitude and average annual speed. In Table 2, the
10 stations are displayed with corresponding measurement location codes, latitude, longitude and altitude.
All approaches to the forecasts were made using actual data
from stations 1543 and 1682. Both are located in the department
of Ica Peru. The station 1543 is called FONAGRO and is located
in the province of Chincha (district of Chincha Baja). The station
1682 is called Ocucaje and is located in the province of Ica (district of Ocucaje).
Fig. 2 shows the location in Peru of the department of Ica and
the districts of Chincha Baja and Ocucaje. The stations 1543
and 1682 are marked in this gure. The average annual temperature in the area is 24 C, with the extreme temperature range between 13 C and 32 C. This region produces the phenomenon
called Paracas sandstorms. The dominant winds are from the
northwest and southwest, and the range of wind speeds is between
6 m/s and 14 m/s, taking an average of 9.1 m/s (80 m high) and
9.5 m/s (100 m high). The wind equivalent hours in the year are between 3500 h and 3900 h, with plant factors between 40% and 45%.
Measurement systems of wind resource (anemometers and
vanes) have been installed by the SENAMHI (National Service of
Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru). The equipments installed
are model cup anemometers (model NRG # 40 NRG) and wind
vanes (model # 200P).
Table 3 presents the characteristics of the winds in the stations
1543 and 1682. The types of wind speeds measured at both stations are: minimum, maximum and annual average. The measurement points were used to effect by contrasting with the predictions
of 24 h, generated from the Weather Research and Forecasting
model (WRF).
2.4. Initial parameters for WRF interpolation model
The interpolation is called to the assimilation of observed data
in a grid with irregular observations (discretized horizontally and
vertically) of the ocean model. Data assimilation is as important
as the simulation itself, since all equations are solved from the initial conditions [38]. A study of error in this regard is called ensemble. In last decade there have been signicant improvements in
numerical processes due to the improvement of numerical models
and the improvement of the initialization process and network
topographies.
An interpolation has a ltering and smoothing function where
the initial condition of the movements can be perceived in a timely

observation stations. These movements should be parameterization and not complex in the calculation of the scale grid [39]. The
problem of the interpolation of the initial conditions is always formulated in order to minimize the expected error in the forecasts
(e.g., standard deviation of error).
It was found that a satisfactory way of dealing with this problem of interpolation and ltering to combine the observations in
a previous range. The simulation starts with the forecast obtained
with the model at that instant of time. Use of the interpolation
model produces more consistent initial conditions. The forecast
combined with interpolations is called interpolation base
(background). The difference between the interpolation we use
and the interpolation basis is called observational gain (gain of
information due to the observations). This gain is what allows
the incorporation of information and realistically prevents the performance of a simulation model of autonomous long observations.
In contrast, based interpolation helps provide information where
there are no observations, and contributes to softening of the
elds. Fig. 3 presents the global distribution of the annual average
wind speed; this information is added to that generated by the
satellites.
3. Methodology for the implementation of WRF model
3.1. Simulation of WRF model with a 24 h prediction horizon
The model used for the prediction of 24 h corresponds to the
WRF developed in collaboration with various institutions in the
United States, including: NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction), NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research),
FWA (Force Weather Agency), and the FAA (Federal Aviation
Administration).
The WRF model allows different congurations in different
module parameterization of the model. Improvements in forecasting system initialization, the observation network (satellite) and
numerical models themselves allow greater forecast accuracy, particularly in the southern hemisphere. A key objective of the quality
of the forecasts is to map a hemispheric map predicted to ve days,
with an initial estimate of conditions for ve days.
In Fig. 4, we display the typical pattern of neural networks. This
shows the different input variables such as latitude, longitude, altitude and month. The networks consist of three (3) layers: hidden
layer, input layer and output layer [40].
Fig. 5 presents the different modules of WRF model, STATIC
DATA blocks correspond to the geographic database information,
such as topography and roughness of terrain. The GRIB DATA block
contains information on the initial conditions obtained from the
SENAMHI. The GEOGRID, UNGRIB and METGRIB correspond to previous information processing which ts the grid dened in the simulation. The executable REAL module lters data to further develop
the WRF executable.

Table 2
The geography location of measuring stations.
Department

Province

District

Site code

Station

Latitude (S)

Longitude (W)

Altitude (m)

Ica
Ica
Ica
Ica
Ica
Ica
Ica
Ica
Huacavelica
Ayacucho

Chincha
Pisco
Ica
Palpa
Ica
Nazca
Ica
Pisco
Huaytara
Parinacochas

Chincha Baja
Humay
Ocucaje
Rio Grande
La Tinguia
Vist Alegre
San Jos de los Molinos
Huancano
Pilpichaca
Cora Cora

1543
1593
1682
1734
1658
1823
1645
1579
1345
2321

Fonagro
Hacienda Bernales
Ocucaje
Rio Grande
Fundo Don Carlos
Copara
Huamani
Huncano
Tunel Cero
Cora Cora

13280 2800
13450 4500
14230 100
14320 3200
1400 100
14580 5800
13500 5000
13370 3700
13150 1500
1510 100

7680 800
75570 5700
75400 100
75130 1300
75420 100
74540 5400
75350 3500
75400 4000
7550 500
73470 100

60
320
330
360
425
600
970
1006
4475
3172

C. Gonzlez-Mingueza, F. Muoz-Gutirrez / Energy Conversion and Management 81 (2014) 363373

367

Fig. 2. Geographical locations of Peru in South America and the stations 1543 and 1682.

Table 3
Wind speed at stations 1543 (Fonagro) and 1682 (Ocucaje).

Site code

Station

Minimum (m/s)

YMWS (m/s)a

Maximum (m/s)

1543
1682

Fonagro
Ocucaje

1.8
1.5

6.8
7.1

16.1
13.4

YMWS: yearly mean wind speed.

3.2. Grids of WRF model

The research used as a database of public domain predictions is
generated by the SENAMHI. Also it used the basic geographic information contained in the WRF model with different levels of discretization in each case.
The numerical model solves the equations with nite difference
method, using the grid format shown in Fig. 6 [41]. As you can see
in the grid, the values of de Dx and Dy correspond to the
parameters of the grid WE (m) and NS (m), respectively.

Square grids were generated for the two stations according to

the model shown in Fig. 7. Two stations being located very close
to each other are considered the same size for both grids [42].
The authors mention that this method has similar results compare
the hybrid approach [46]. The WRF model has been constructed as
shown in Fig. 7 on a primary domain D1, covering part of the central region of Peru and part of the Pacic Ocean, with a resolution
of 120 km.
The following domain D2 was simulated with a resolution of
30 km., comprising a smaller region within the domain D1. The
internal domain D3 worked with a resolution of 5 km. This domain has a vertical structure of 25 layers. All domains are characterized by being focused on the same point with coordinates:
Longitude 13750 5800 and Latitude 75900 1800 . Finally, the domain
D4 worked with a resolution of 1.5 km.
The simulation is performed based on an accumulation of grids,
which are adjusted after each simulation step [43]. Each domain
has a domain inside the main parent domains which are referenced

Fig. 3. Global distribution of the annual average wind speed.

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C. Gonzlez-Mingueza, F. Muoz-Gutirrez / Energy Conversion and Management 81 (2014) 363373

LSM works with the Noah method in the rst case and with the
PX in the third case. In order to be clear that different simulations
were performed as shown in Table 5, the three cases with respect
to their parameterization models SL, PBL and LSM are shown [44].
The application of the WRF model is effected by the three
alternatives.

4. Results and discussion

Fig. 4. Typical predictions Structure of wind speed for ANN model.

by successive simulations. There are various architectures available for each parameter in relation to the boundary layer [44]. Table 4 shows the different existing architectures depending on
parameterization. SL, PBL and LSM correspond to some parameterizations classes that are simulated separately.
The SL (MM5) model has to be used with the model PBL (YSU
Yonsei University Scheme), the SL (ETA) has to be used with the
PBL (MYJ Mellore Yamadae Janjic Scheme) model and the SL
(PK Pleime Xiu) model must be used with the PBL (ACM2
Asymmetric Convective model) model. Furthermore, the model

The simulation was conducted in the Faculty of Engineering at

the National University of Engineering in Lima (Peru). The WRF
model generates forecasts of components WE and NS, and from
these we calculated the magnitude of the wind speed (m/s) and
wind direction (degrees ).
After obtaining a determination of the best model, the next step
was to determine which option provides the best results due to the
lower RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and Bias (Systematic Error).
The simulation of the three alternatives (A1, A2 and A3) was conducted during the month of January (summer season) and June
(winter season). Table 6 and Fig. 8 show the results of the station
1543 (FONAGRO). In this case simulation A1 is considered closest
to the observation model both wind speed and wind direction
terms. In all of three simulations, there is a deviation in the wind
direction and an underestimation of the speed, anticlockwise if

Fig. 5. Simulation modules of WRF model.

Fig. 6. Grids used for the WRF model.

C. Gonzlez-Mingueza, F. Muoz-Gutirrez / Energy Conversion and Management 81 (2014) 363373

369

Fig. 7. Domains (D1D4) used for the WRF model.

Table 4
Different architectures for each parameterization.
Parametrization

Architectures

SL
PBL
LSM

MM5, ETA, PleimeXiu

Yonsei University, Mellore Yamadae Janjic, ACM2, RUC
Noah, RUC, 5-layer, PleimeXiu

Table 5
Congurations of alternatives (A1, A2 and A3).
Parametrization

A1

A2

A3

SL
PBL
LSM

MM5
YSU
Noah

ETA
MYJ

PleimeXiu (PX)
ACM2

the observed wind direction is between 190 and 320 and clockwise to the remaining wind directions. Table 6 shows that the simulation A1 has better results than A2 and A3 due to the lower RMSE
and Bias.
Table 6 shows the RMSE speed and direction corresponds to
3.06 m/s and 46.07 respectively and Bias speed and direction corresponds to 2.08 m/s and 2.85 respectively. The parametrization A1 corresponding to MM5 YSU Noah was the best
simulation in January due to limitations of simulations A2 and
A3. The authors dene these ndings are vital to work with realistic parametrizations of scale process as MM5 YSU Noah dene
in their own concept. The simulation A1 does not show a relevant

Table 6
Wind speed and direction parameters (January summer season).
Options

Simulation A1
Simulation A2
Simulation A3

RMSE

Bias

Speed (m/s)

Direction ()

Speed (m/s)

Direction ()

3.06
3.63
3.40

46.07
47.53
50.98

2.08
2.74
2.47

2.85
7.12
8.74

sensitivity independent of the complexity terrain and we recommend using this simulation in future.
The results for the Station 1682 (Ocucaje) were worked in the
same way than the Station 1543 (Fonagro). Simulations were performed similarly with the three alternatives during the month of
June. The wind speed results on June were worse than January.
However, the simulations of wind direction were closer to the observed values. In summary, the results of the alternative A3 are
considered better for the wind direction and wind speed. For purposes of this research, the comparison has been made in the simulations took into account two seasons (January during the summer
season and June during the winter season). Table 7 and Fig. 9 show
the results for the month of June of the station 1682 (Ocucaje).
Table 7 shows that the simulation A3 has better results than A1
and A2 due to the lower RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and Bias
(Systematic Error). Table 7 indicates the RMSE speed and direction
errors corresponds to 2.96 m/s and 36.25 respectively and Bias
speed and direction errors corresponds to 1.63 m/s and 0.79
respectively.
The parametrization A3 corresponding to PX ACM2 was the
best simulation in June due to limitations of simulations A1 and
A2 to simulate cold seasons. The authors dene that the simulation
A3 does not show a relevant sensitivity independent of the season
and we recommend using this simulation in future.
Fig. 10 shows the fundamentals errors of the parametrization in
simulation A1. Fig. 10(a) evidences the occurrence wind rose and
Fig. 10(c) the resulting energy wind rose. Fig. 10(b) shows the histogram of the wind speed. The wind speed histogram shows the
difference between observed and simulated data, the most frequent wind speeds in the simulation model are located between
2 and 5 m/s with an average of 10.3%. But, the observed data are
located between 4 and 7 m/s having a frequency of 11.5% of the
time. About the wind roses, it is very difcult to show the dominant wind speeds. However, the energy wind rose (c) shows a good
correlation between observed and simulated data. That means the
direction wind speeds that were not simulated with accuracy by
the model are not very signicant in terms of wind speed. It is
noteworthy that the dominant wind direction in occurrence wind

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C. Gonzlez-Mingueza, F. Muoz-Gutirrez / Energy Conversion and Management 81 (2014) 363373

Fig. 8. Wind speed in m s (a) and wind direction in degrees (b) corresponds to Station 1543 Fonagro.

Table 7
Wind speed and direction parameters (June winter season).
Options

Simulation A1
Simulation A2
Simulation A3

RMSE

Bias

Speed (m/s)

Direction ()

Speed (m/s)

Direction ()

3.19
3.62
2.96

38.14
38.73
36.25

2.45
2.77
1.63

3.89
3.43
0.79

rose (a) with the simulated data corresponds to eastsoutheast

sector (ESE), holds little relevance in terms of energy (b). In
others words, the wind speed is low in this sector and management
can lead to errors during the simulation and measurement
processes.
The same analysis was done for simulation A3. Fig. 11 shows
the fundamentals errors of the parametrization in simulation A3
in winter season. The wind speed histogram (b) shows the difference between observed and simulated data, the most frequent
wind speeds in the simulation model are located between 3 and
6 m/s with an average of 23.4%. But, the observed data are located
between 6 and 9 m/s having a frequency of 19.5% of the time.
About the wind roses (a) and (c), it is more easily to note the dominant wind speeds corresponds to northnorthwest sector (N
NW). The fact that the dominant direction is clear contributes to

obtain good results in the simulated wind direction. The energy

wind rose (c) veries the same results than occurrence wind rose
(a).
The most important results we could mention corresponding
the fact of underestimation of the wind speed on January simulation. The authors detected the wind direction is simulated by the
model especially in strong dominant sectors. In January, it was
seen signicant frequencies in low speeds (12 m/s). In these
cases, the characterization is subjective and could be higher the
deviation between observed and simulated results. In June, the
simulated wind speeds are constant below 4 m/s and above
11 m/s. That is the raison the results of occurrences (a) and resulting wind rose (c) in June have a similar dominant sectors.
Several future researches that open after the contained in this
document. Some of these lines are a natural continuation of the
work. Other lines are focused on developing similar to those proposed in other elds of power generation from renewable sources
models.
A rst line to investigate in the future, it is the development of
new models in the short term prediction of wind speed in a wind
farm. The prediction horizon of the new models must cover at least
ahead day 24 h (due to interest for the electricity trade). It is very
possible that the prediction errors of the generated winds at the
wind farm are reduced using new variables.

Fig. 9. Wind speed in m s (a) and wind direction in degrees (b) corresponds to Station 1682 Ocucaje.

C. Gonzlez-Mingueza, F. Muoz-Gutirrez / Energy Conversion and Management 81 (2014) 363373

371

Fig. 10. Occurrence wind rose (a), wind speed histogram (b) and energy wind rose Simulation A1.

Fig. 11. Occurrence wind rose (a), wind speed histogram (b) and energy wind rose Simulation A3.

Another line to be investigated may be related to the prediction

error generated by a wind turbine set with respect to generated by
a single turbine. In this sense, possibly predicting winds will be

better in a wind farm if a prediction algorithm of each of the turbines of the wind farm is developed. It could use an atmospheric
model to make predictions of wind at points of a grid of high

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C. Gonzlez-Mingueza, F. Muoz-Gutirrez / Energy Conversion and Management 81 (2014) 363373

spatial resolution, and based on these predictions, to obtain the

appropriate locations for wind turbines.
Finally, as a parallel line that can be opened into the research
covered by this document, it could include the development of predictive models of the electricity generated in solar plants in the
short term. It could use an atmospheric model to make predictions
of solar radiation in the area of interest, which together with the
data base of production from solar power, lead to create predictive
models of the electrical power generated in the short term. Also, it
will be a great challenge to evaluate the fact to locate the measure
stations in different altitudes and in a complex terrain. The errors
of simulation models will be compared in each case with results
of this article.
5. Conclusions
The WRF model used different alternatives to evaluate the performance of the wind direction and wind speed. The terrain and
the selection of the domain resolution were two key parameters
to achieve an improved simulation test. The simulation data were
performed for measuring heights of 100 m. We evaluated three different numerical alternatives with mixed parameterization levels
(SL, PBL and LSM), demonstrating that the A1 simulation must
not exceed the 24 h prediction to avoid problems with the model.
The simulations were conducted during the months of January and
June for the two stations in the department of Ica (Peru). The
parameterization was developed with different hybrid architectures, the alternative A1 (MM5 + YSU + Noah conguration) gave
the best performance in the month of January and the alternative
A3 (PX + ACM2 conguration) during the month of June. Therefore
cold seasons produce an overcast sky that affects the daily temperature and resulting in the speed of the winds being more sensitive
in these seasons. The wind direction was also simulated by the
model especially in the spectra of dominant winds. Considerable
variations in wind direction were obtained during the month of
January (alternative A1). Therefore for low wind speed the data
of wind direction were very subjective in the simulation. Likewise,
it was noted that the underestimated wind speed increases with
the complexity of terrain. To reduce this error we need to increase
the resolution of the simulation domain for best results. It is also
noted that in the month of January the frequencies of wind speeds
are higher; in the range of 15 m/s; with respect to the month of
June. However, during the months of June constant speeds result
in minor deviations from the simulations.
Acknowledgements
The author acknowledges the support of the data supplied of
wind speeds and wind direction, and temperatures and pressures
at different measuring points by public organizations: MINEM
(Ministry of Energy and Mines) and SENAMHI (National Service
of Meteorology and Hydrology of Peru).
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