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METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,012 Canadians by Smart IVR from April 14-15, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were
surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.38%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Atlantic (ATL): +/-4.2%; Quebec: +/-3.29%; Ontario: +/-3.07%;
Prairies: +/-3.75%; Alberta: +/-3.16%; British Columbia: +/-3.37%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on
the 2011 Canadian Census.
A2
Among NDP supporters, Rachel Notley has the highest favourability score with +60, followed in a distant
second by Nathan Cullen at +28 and a strong third for Jagmeet Singh at +27. This could be a factor in the
upcoming leadership as Notley's inuence in the party grows.
The Leap Manifesto is a hot topic among respondents, with 53% saying they are following this very closely
and another 27% somewhat closely. This compared to just 16% combined who said they were not following
it closely or not at all. Approval is split with a majority saying they approve (58%) vs 31% who disapprove.
The breakdown among support is interesting with strong approval (17%) and strong disapproval (20%). This
issue will continue to dominate headlines and the coming leadership contest, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca
A3
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
10%
4%
2%
13%
27%
44%
A4
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Male
Female
Liberal
48%
38%
45%
42%
44%
44%
Conservative
21%
30%
29%
29%
28%
26%
NDP
18%
12%
10%
11%
13%
13%
Bloc Qubcois
2%
3%
2%
3%
2%
3%
Green
5%
5%
3%
2%
4%
4%
Undecided
7%
12%
10%
13%
9%
12%
604
1,233
1,550
1,625
2,457
2,555
Nat.
BC
AB
Prairies
ON
QC
ATL
Liberal
44%
40%
29%
42%
50%
41%
46%
Conservative
27%
22%
48%
35%
26%
20%
28%
NDP
13%
12%
8%
10%
12%
18%
11%
Bloc Qubcois
2%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
10%
N/A
Green
4%
13%
2%
3%
2%
2%
4%
Undecided
10%
13%
13%
10%
9%
9%
11%
Sample
5,012
889
888
680
1,110
900
535
Sample
A5
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
5%
14%
30%
48%
3%
10
A6
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Male
Female
Liberal
52%
43%
50%
47%
47%
49%
Conservative
22%
34%
32%
34%
31%
29%
NDP
19%
13%
11%
12%
14%
15%
Bloc Qubcois
2%
3%
3%
3%
2%
3%
Green
5%
6%
4%
3%
5%
4%
Sample
576
1,152
1,463
1,528
2,347
2,373
Nat.
BC
AB
Prairies
ON
QC
ATL
Liberal
48%
45%
35%
47%
55%
45%
51%
Conservative
30%
25%
53%
38%
29%
21%
32%
NDP
14%
15%
9%
11%
13%
20%
12%
Bloc Qubcois
3%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
12%
N/A
Green
5%
15%
3%
3%
3%
2%
5%
4,720
830
831
645
1,059
847
508
Sample
A7
20%
12%
53%
8%
4%
1%
Undecided 26%
Singh 11%
Lewis 11%
Julian 10%
Cullen 17%
Boulerice 4%
Ashton 4%
A8
NDP LEADERSHIP
SAMPLE: 598
MoE: +/- 4.01
24
20
16
12
A9
NDP LEADERSHIP
[NDP VOTERS ONLY]
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Male
Female
Niki Ashton
4%
3%
4%
5%
3%
5%
Alexandre Boulerice
4%
3%
4%
5%
5%
3%
Nathan Cullen
15%
20%
16%
20%
16%
18%
Peter Julian
12%
10%
8%
9%
11%
9%
Avi Lewis
6%
12%
16%
14%
11%
11%
Jagmeet Singh
10%
11%
15%
9%
12%
10%
Someone else
13%
17%
20%
23%
18%
16%
Undecided
37%
23%
19%
15%
24%
28%
Nat.
BC
AB
Prairies
ON
QC
ATL
N. Ashton
4%
4%
5%
39%
2%
1%
3%
A. Boulerice
4%
1%
2%
3%
0%
10%
3%
N. Cullen
17%
30%
19%
9%
16%
14%
16%
P. Julian
10%
26%
19%
9%
8%
5%
11%
A. Lewis
11%
10%
5%
9%
8%
15%
11%
J. Singh
11%
8%
9%
6%
20%
5%
5%
Someone else
17%
5%
16%
9%
16%
24%
16%
Undecided
26%
16%
26%
15%
29%
26%
35%
A10
Favourability Ratings
[NDP VOTERS ONLY]
Ashton 32%
11%
Boulerice 17%
11%
15%
14%
43%
57%
Cullen 55%
27%
Julian 21%
9%
17%
Lewis 41%
5% 27%
6% 27%
Cardy 35%
11%
28%
Horgan
53%
27%
Singh 33%
5% 13%
34%
7% 47%
22%
20%
30%
Notley 71%
0
10
11%
20
Favourable
30
40
Unfavourable
50
60
Not Sure
70
80
13%
5%
90
100
A11
5%
4%
11%
53%
27%
Very Closely
Somewhat Closely
Not Aware
A12
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Male
Female
Very Closely
46%
63%
55%
53%
52%
54%
Somewhat Closely
37%
13%
26%
28%
26%
28%
10%
13%
10%
10%
13%
9%
4%
7%
5%
5%
5%
5%
Not Aware
3%
5%
4%
5%
4%
4%
Nat.
BC
AB
Prairies
ON
QC
ATL
Very
53%
52%
63%
45%
54%
52%
54%
Somewhat
27%
26%
23%
27%
26%
29%
27%
Not Too
11%
13%
7%
15%
12%
10%
11%
Not At All
5%
5%
5%
9%
4%
5%
3%
Not Aware
4%
4%
2%
3%
4%
4%
5%
A13
11%
31%
58%
Approve
Disapprove
Not Sure
A14
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Male
Female
Strongly Approve
19%
19%
13%
15%
18%
16%
Somewhat Approve
40%
40%
45%
41%
44%
38%
Somewhat Disapprove
6%
6%
5%
7%
5%
7%
Strongly Disapprove
23%
23%
28%
27%
20%
29%
Not Sure
12%
11%
9%
10%
13%
9%
Nat.
BC
AB
Prairies
ON
QC
ATL
Str Approve
17%
17%
7%
15%
20%
17%
14%
SW Approve
41%
43%
9%
42%
41%
45%
43%
SW Disapprove
6%
3%
12%
9%
5%
7%
8%
Str Disapprove
25%
25%
67%
21%
23%
20%
22%
Not Sure
11%
13%
5%
12%
11%
11%
14%
A15
SCRIPT
If a Federal Election were held today, which party would you support?
Conservative Party led by Rona Ambrose
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Rheal Fortin
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for?
Conservative Party led by Rona Ambrose
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Qubcois led by Rheal Fortin
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
The NDP will be holding a leadership race to choose a new leader. Of the following candidates, whom
would you vote for if you could to be the next NDP Leader?
Niki Ashton
Alexandre Boulerice
Nathan Cullen
Peter Julian
Megan Leslie
Avi Lewis
Jagmeet Singh
Someone else
Undecided
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Niki Ashton?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Alexandre Boulerice?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Peter Julian?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Megan Leslie?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Avi Lewis?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jagmeet Singh?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Nathan Cullen?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar with [Candidate Name]
A16
SCRIPT
ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.
I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.
WEBSITE
mainstreetresearch.ca
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@MainStResearch
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