Laura Butcher

Mid-Point Analysis of U.S. Cancer Mortality Rates from 1990-2002

Introduction:
In 1996 the American Cancer Society set a goal for the U.S. to reduce cancer related deaths by
50% from 1990 to 2015. Cancer is an uncontrolled division of abnormal cells in a part of the
body that can lead to growth or tumors that can be either malignant (cancer causing) or Benign
(none harmful). Cancer is seen as one of the leading cause of death nationwide by setting this
goal the American Cancer Society intended to decrease the cancer related death toll of the U.S.
The data they collected was not complete at the time but rather a mid-point check on the progress
made in the efforts to reduce cancer related death rates.
Reason for Research:
This report was conducted in order to estimate and the projected outcome and trends of cancer
related deaths from 1990 to 2002 mid-point of the set goal, after the 25-year challenge was made
by the American Cancer Society. The original goal was to decrease cancer related mortality rates,
even though this goal was never reached, a decline in cancer related deaths was noted. This
decline trend in cancer related mortality rates is directly link to decreased risk factors, early
detection and treatment. While progress has been made in the direction of improved cancer
mortality rates there is still a great deal of work to be done. This report exams numbers and data
collected from 1990-2002 and will give an idea of future trends in cancer mortality rates up
2015.

Methods &Materials:
Data used in this study was based off major risk factors for cancer and cancer mortality rates.
The U.S. Data concerning risk factors for cancer were given by the Behavioral Risk Factor
Surveillance System and other special surveys. Cancer mortality numbers were provided by the
National Center for Health Statistics. All data on mortality rates were adjusted using 10 year
intervals and according to age, gender, race and ethnicity. Mortality data for Hispanics were
based off only 39 states with available data for the entire period of study. All age adjusted
cancers were combined and analyzed this includes, Lung cancer, breast cancer, colorectal cancer,
prostate cancer and other cancers. The trends of cancer and its prevalence linked to mortality
rates from 1990-2002 have been expressed as an average percent change per year. The trends
from 1990 and 2002 were then analyzed to make a future prediction by a linear equation of
increase or decrease to the year 2015. This means that they took an average percent for the
mortality rates each year and calculated them in 12 year intervals in order to predict any future
trends in cancer up to the 2015. The data was then compared to the expected number of cancer
related deaths and the actual deaths from 1990 to 2002 as well as the predicted numbers from
2002 to 2015.
Results:
Cancer related death rates did indeed decline in the U.S. from 1990 to 2002, this decline was
approximately 1% per years all types of cancer combined. A decline in mortality rates was noted
for each group based off age, gender, ethnicity and race. Declines in mortality rates were more
greatly observed in individuals age 55 to 64 and African American. Where declines were less for
individuals 64 -84 and Hispanic. Most trends for major cancer risk factors had mixed results.

There was also an increase in womens lung cancer from 1990-1998 noted within the period of
study. Many of the results can be attributed to the increase in cancer screenings and from 1980 to
2002. Based off the calculation and data collected there has been a decline in cancer death rates
since 1990 estimated to be equivalent to 315,000 cancer related deaths prevented. Analyzing the
decline trends to future years will estimate in I million cancer related deaths prevented by 2010
and 1.58 million by the year 2015. If the decline increases in order to meet the 50% goal by 2015
this would lead to 2.3 million deaths prevented.
Discussion:
The current decline in cancer related death rates is not sufficient enough to meet the 50% goal by
2015. If the current trends continue the goal for a 50% decline in cancer related deaths will not
be achieved until after the year 2040. Lung Cancer is still the leading cause of cancer related
deaths in the U.S. despite evidence of declines and programs set out to minimize tobacco use.
Advances in treatment have improved and continue to show improvement in the coming years,
based on all factors for lung cancer both genders will see downward trends in mortality rates in
the coming decade. Colorectal Cancer (Cancer of the Colon) rates have shown a steady rate of
decline since 1990. Treatment for Colorectal Cancer have improved but they major factor in the
decline of this cancer is the early screening and removal of possible tumors or polyps. Progress
in breast cancer detection, screening and treatment has attributed to much of the decline trends
for this specific cancer. These trends are likely to continue in the next decade. Prostate Cancer is
the second most common cause of death in men, the advances in early detection and screening
are showing significant declines in death rates. All other cancer has shown a 2% decline per year.
Other factors that contribute to the lack of decline are age and socioeconomic factors. Many
people past the age 65 care less about pre screenings and treatments because of their age. The

socioeconomic portion relates to the gap in income and poverty rates that can lead to individual
being unable to afford treatment or screening.
Conclusion:
In this study the current trends of cancer mortality rates from the past and possible trends pf the
future has been used to predict how future trends may be affected my new technology and
knowledge between now and the year 2015. In first 25-year period there has been notable decline
of 2% per year, in 4 most common cancers, Breast, Colorectal, Prostate, and Lung between the
years 1990-2002. These types of cancer specifically are the cancer that have had the most
research and know ways of prevention and treatment. For other cancer sites decline trends have
been less due to a lack of knowledge on how to screen and treat. Despite all the progress and
declines in trends the goal for reduced mortality rates for the 25-year period may only make it to
the half way mark. In order to fully achieve the goal of decreasing cancer mortality rates by 50%
by 2015 more research and major improvements in cancer screening, early detection and
treatment must take place.
Limitations of the Study:
This study is only a prediction based of past events and numbers on mortality rates compared to
current trends. Mortality data from 2003 show a continued rate of decline in cancer related
deaths. The future decline in cancer mortality rates is all dependent on policy makers and the
American public joining together to reduce risk factors and improve knowledge and treatment
methods, screening and detection. This also entails the entire nation making sure that all of its
people have access to state of the art treatment centers regardless of socioeconomic differences.

Bibliography:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cncr.21990/full