Adam Catrambone

10/25/15
CAS 137H Sec. 013
The Shifting Focus of Conspiratorial Beliefs
Some individuals believe that shapeshifting lizards secretly rule the world or that aliens
have begun to secretly interbreed with humans, but, of course, not all conspiracy theories are as
exceeding ridiculous. Conspiracies involving more down-to-earth conspiratorial groups can seem
much more plausible to the average individual. While conspiracy theories are often considered a
fringe topic, they are an important reflection of the current American mindset. Out of all
Americans, 23% believe that global warming is fake (Leiserowitz, et al., 2014), 24% believe that
Barack Obama was not born in America, and 61% believe that a conspiracy assassinated JFK
(Swift, 2015). However, the content of conspiracy theories is not constant. Early popularly
accepted conspiracies such as the Red Scares and even early John F. Kennedy assassination
theories blamed communists; now, Bush did 9/11 is part of the popular lexicon and conspiracy
theories for the JFK assassination blame some arm of the government. During the first half of the
twentieth century, conspiracy theories tended to focus blame onto the external enemies of the
United States, but, motivated by greater awareness of governmental corruption on account of
new media freedom and technology, came to demonize the American government.
One set of past conspiracy theories that had an important impact on American history was
fear of secret communist actions. After both the Bolshevik revolution in 1917 and the Soviet
Union's prominence following the Second World War, so-called Red Scares swept the nation. In
both cases, average citizens feared that Soviet infiltrators were working to incite a socialist
revolution or slowly seize control of the American government. During the course of the first
Red Scare, Attorney General Mitchell Palmer instituted a government by hysteria, causing a
Bolshevist plot to be seen in every item of the days news. This popular fear motivated

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extreme unwarranted actions; for instance, the 1918 raid of the Union of Russian Workers
resulted in the detainment of ethnically Russian, non-revolutionary individuals for months before
any hearings took place (Murray, 1955). While the first Red Scare was influenced by the actions
of certain individuals unassociated with the Soviet government, the exaggerated ideas were only
expanded in the second. The second Red Scare was defined by the ideas of Senator Joseph
McCarthy. McCarthyism, though it is not often thought of in this manner, is founded on the same
tenets as any conspiracy theory. In it the conspirators are hidden communist agents. McCarthy
claimed that soviet agents or sympathizers had infiltrated the government and entertainment
industry, but, as this belief captivated and enthralled the nation, its focus expanded (Red Scare,
2015). For instance, water fluoridation was seen by some as a communist plot to poison
Americans (Keep America, 1955). If anything untoward or suspect occurred, then Communists
were seen as the natural target to blame.
Communists were not the only such target for conspiracy theories; even during World
War II, such outwardly focused conspiracy theories were prominent. Japanese internment was
motivated by fears that Japanese-American individuals were actually Japanese saboteurs.
Surveys of popular opinion before the internments began revealed feelings that all [JapaneseAmericans] should be watched for signs of disloyalty (Sides, 2012). A national poll taken in
1942 reported that 59% of Americans supported the evacuation of Japanese-Americans,
despite the lack of evidence that Japanese-Americans posed any harm (Weber, 2015). A year
prior to the onset of internment, an official navy report had determined that Japanese internment
was unnecessary and counterproductive (Ringle, 1941). Rather than being motivated by any
rational information, both the government and the public whose support was required in order to

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act were motivated by xenophobia focused on possible future conspiracies. Just as with the two
Red Scares, Americans irrationally feared operatives of the enemy conspiring on American soil.
While both of these conspiratorial beliefs were heavily entwined with government action
and policy, similar examples can be found in more traditional conspiracy theories from a similar
time period. The assassination of John F. Kennedy by Lee Harvey Oswald in 1963 had most
conspiratorial thinkers blaming KGB agents or Cuban assassins under the employ of Fidel Castro
when it first occurred. Revilo Oliver, an early influential and palindromically named conspiracy
theorist, published a pair of articles which received widespread attention in 1964 entitled
Marxmanship in Dallas. In these articles, Oliver argued that Oswald had acted under the order
of and was afterwards eliminated by the KGB, the main security agency of the USSR, as the part
of a communist conspiracy (Oliver, 1964). In fact, such sentiment was so prevalent that Soviet
internal documents revealed significant fear in the USSR leadership that they would face
repercussions for their supposed act from the United States (Bugliosi, 2007). The Warren
Commission, the first government body to investigate the assassination, named after Chief
Justice Earl Warren, specifically investigated possible Soviet involvement in the assassination
(United States, 1964).
Similarly, the Warren Commission stated that it had received dozens of baseless
allegations of a conspiratorial contact between Oswald and agents of the Cuban Government
(United States, 1964). According to Bugliosi, suspicion of Cuban complicity involved in
Kennedys death was at its greatest shortly after the assassination. Even Lyndon B. Johnson,
Kennedys vice president, remarked in private conversation to newsman Howard Smith in 1968
Kennedy was trying to get to Castro, but Castro got to him first" (Holland, 2004). While this

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only represents a personal opinion and was not spoken in any official capacity or information, it
shows the widespread nature of the belief.
However, these sorts of theories blaming exterior parties are no longer prevalent; today,
shadowy organizations and branches of the American government are the main target blamed
even by American citizens. Twenty-eight percent of American voters believe that the secretive
power elite are working to establish an authoritarian government a so-called New World Order
(Williams, 2013). According to some, including former presidential candidate Michele
Bachmann, the government is planning to intern, reeducate, or kill various individuals \ whether
through the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Keller, 2010) or various laws such as the
Edward M. Kennedy Serve America Act (Stein, 2011). One out of every twenty Americans
believe that airplane exhaust contains various nefarious chemicals sprayed by the government;
fifteen percent believe that the government has added mind-controlling technology to
television (Williams, 2013). These sort of non-specific universal conspiracy theories display
general paranoia with the American government.
Focusing on a much more specific incident, 9/11 conspiracy theories, spread by so-called
truthers, also focus blame onto the American government. Forty-nine percent of New York
City residents believe some individual in the US had prior knowledge of the 9/11 attacks well
before they occurred (Half of New Yorkers, 2004). According to this theory, the attack was
allowed to occur so as to provide an excuse for war in Afghanistan and Iraq. Some individuals
even go beyond this, claiming that the United States government orchestrated the attacks entirely
themselves. Within six hours of the 9/11 attacks, the first suggestion that a government
conspiracy was behind the attacks was made (Summers, 2011). After less than two months,
conspiracy theories involving the attacks grew to the point that George W. Bush was forced to

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address them in a speech to the United Nations (President Bush, 2011). In contrast, it took
decades for any popular conspiracy theories to arise regarding the bombing of Pearl Harbor
(Barnes, 1968). Todays American populace is all too ready to blame incidents on the American
government.
This paranoia directed at the American government can also affect how people interpret
older incidents. Now, when the average conspiratorially-minded individual reflects on the JFK
assassination, a typical perpetrator might be various governmental agencies closely affiliated
with the military or large corporations, a la Oliver Stone's JFK. The film was released in 1991,
and although it was very loosely based on the activities of New Orleans district attorney Jim
Garrison in the late sixties, it claimed a different conspiracy than he did. In was only years after
the trials, such as his 1988 book On the Trail of the Assassins, that Garrison blamed the
government for the assassination. Currently, the overwhelming majority of Americans [have]
discarded the idea that Castro was behind the assassination (Bugliosi, 2007). The various bodies
or figures within the American government have the highest percentage of blame of any
conspiratorial body for the assassination of JFK (41%), far outclassing the USSR (4%) and Cuba
(7%) (Swift, 2013). Though the JFK assassination did not happen recently, theories regarding it
were caught up in a shift towards blaming the government.
This paradigm shift in the target of popular conspiracy theories was triggered by a series
of moments that shattered public confidence in the American government in the latter half of the
twentieth and beginning of the twenty-first centuries. Two significant examples of such moments
occurred since the JFK assassination: Watergate and the start of the Iraq War. Watergate is the
common name for the scandal which involved the reveal of attempts to burglarize the office of
the Democratic National Committee. This was done in order to aid Richard Nixons reelection

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campaign, which he attempted to cover up (Watergate, n.d.). The public trust in the U.S.
government fell 17% between the date of the break-in and the day he left office, dropping below
50% for the first time since the Pew Research had begun polling with this question. Beyond how
the incident affected the publics perception of Nixon, it has irrevocably altered how Americans
view the government. Since then, trust has risen above 50% only once: in the few months
following 9/11 (Public Trust, 2014). This did not last for long.
The actions of the second Bush administration also decreased trust and fostered antigovernment conspiracy theories following 9/11 similarly to Nixon. The administration under
George W. Bush attempted to support the War in Iraq by claiming both the presence of weapons
of mass destruction and connections to Al-Qaeda that were known at the time to be false
(Sandalow, 2004). It is easy, from a certain point of view, to imagine how certain individuals
might make the leap from understanding how information was manipulated in support of the Iraq
War to believing that the same individuals purposely caused 9/11. In both of these instances, the
government, and, more importantly, the presidents themselves, revealed their capacities for
deceit to the Americans. In doing so, the American government rendered itself a sinister and
suspicious entity for the less-jaded American public.
Each of these instances, having significantly affected the trust of the American people in
their government, encourage conspiracy theories. For instance, writers such as Robert J. Groden,
a well-known conspiracy theorist, began writing his book JFK: The Case for Conspiracy in 1975
when the Watergate scandal had just occurred (Groden and Model, 1977), while Michael Piper
published Final Judgement in 2004 (Final Judgement, n.d.). Though some individuals have
always espoused various conspiracy theories, such incidents render the public more willing to
consider them. Belief in a JFK assassination conspiracy peaked at 81% two different times in

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American history, occurring on the years surveyed by Gallup closest to Watergate and 9/11
(Swift, 2013). Thus, at certain times, actual instances of government misconduct has fueled
belief in much more grievous fictional instances.
However, similar incidents in which the United States betrayed public confidence did
occur earlier in American history; the reason with these instances did not fuel similar mistrust is
a lack of the current media freedom fueled by both societal and technology. One of the most
important parties in bringing the incidents of Watergate into the publics awareness was the
Washington Post and other print media; the press wouldnt have always been able to act in this
manner(McLeod et al., 1977). Concurrently, the introduction of television, and later the internet,
allowed news to spread quicker and farther. For instance, sites such as Wikileaks can give the
average citizen access to information that would otherwise be hidden; Wikileaks has revealed
cover ups dealing with American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan war crimes, which though they
occurred at a much smaller scale, could be seen as conspiracies (Afghanistan, 2010). From
these smaller instances, hypothetical larger conspiracies could be extrapolated. The internet has
also influenced the focus of conspiracy theories in other ways. The early conspiracy theories as
described above tended to be drawn from and heavily entwined in government actions and
beliefs. The internet, however, has allowed individuals to come into contact with others who
might have similar beliefs, providing alternate conspiracy theories another source of weight in
size and power. The first instance of a mention of some secret conspiracy in regards to 9/11
occurred online (Summers, 2011). Wide exposure to such ideas online strengthens the theories
believability for the average individual; cascades can develop in which the number of believers
grows as people without strong opinions become convinced merely by weight of numbers, only
strengthening the theory further (Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009). This can result in a much higher

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number of believers than a group of isolated individuals with the same initial beliefs. Thus,
increased interconnectedness and media freedom has aided the formation of conspiracy theories
not supported by the American government.
The media can also reflect these trends in conspiracy theories; such a shift in the focus of
conspiracies can also be seen in fiction. More recent examples of spy genre movies often portray
enemies as highly associated with covert government associations. In the Bourne series of
movies and novels, Bourne is a reformed assassin who faces off against a sinister branch of the
NSA (The Bourne Identity, n.d.).Even the most recent James Bond movie, Skyfall, had its
villains heavily rooted and infiltrated into the British government; though British, they are also
heavily consumed in America (Skyfall, n.d.). This is quite a shift from the original novels,
which had a fictionalized Russian spy agency as the overarching evil (The Books, 2012). Part
of this shift in fiction could also be accounted for by changes in government influence in media.
For instance, during the fifties, movie creators who were thought to be un-American were
blacklisted (Red Scare, 2015). However, fiction does not merely reflect current mindsets, it can
also add to it. If average individuals are exposed to these ideas in media, the ideas are able to
infiltrate minds. As noted before, Stones JFK also irrevocably shaded how the JFK assassination
is viewed; it convinced millions of the truth of the conspiracy (Ayton, 2006). Even if people
understand what they are viewing is fiction, they still internalize ideas taken from it. People tend
to underestimate the influence of mass media, both fictional and not, on themselves, and
consequently also underestimate how much they are influenced by exposure to conspiracy
theories (Douglas and Sutton, 2008).
Beyond how these conspiracy theories affect the decisions of their rather numerous
believers, they both reflect and affect American society as a whole. A majority of Americans

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believe in at least one conspiracy theory (Oliver and Wood, 2014). While originally conspiracy
theories were utilized by public figures to unite Americans against common enemies, now they
undermine American trust in public institutions. The average American citizen's rating of the
trustworthiness of the American government has consistently gone down since the beginning of
the twentieth century (Warren, 1999). While a certain measure of distrust is warranted, there is a
trend to excessive illogical mistrust, and such beliefs are potentially harmful. For instance, if an
individual believed that Barack Obama was not born in America and, for that reason, chose not
to vote for him, their vote would not have reflected their political desires. Also, many of the arms
of the government targeted by modern conspiracy theories, such as FEMA, are beneficial.
Significant belief in conspiracies blaming such institutions will raise opposition that will hinder
the performance of their job.
However, the shift has had the positive effect of helping to prevent blanket
generalizations over and hate directed toward broad groups. While there is still some xenophobia
directed toward Arabs and other individuals of Middle-Eastern descent, it is no longer politically
correct to have negative generalizations directed at them or at any race. Very soon after the 9/11,
awareness of the negative treatment of Middle-Easterners increased dramatically (Race
Relations, n.d.). Though racism is still existent, is not an accepted feature of American society.
Similarly, the American favorability rating of Iraq actually increased during the Iraq War, unlike
how international enemies were viewed early in the twentieth century (Iraq, n.d.). Thus, as
conspiracy theories have come to blame the government, the irrational fear of other groups and
enemies has decreased.
Paranoid belief in unfounded conspiracy theories also fosters antiscientific feelings.
Modern conspiracy theories tend to center around rejecting authority. However, once the theorist

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rejects the claims of the government, it becomes easier for them to reject other commonly
believed facts. These theories require one to reject established historical or scientific beliefs in
support of the conspiracy theory and the fear behind it. The belief that global warming is a hoax
necessitates that one disagree with the vast majority of climate scientists (Leiserowitz et al.,
2014). Many other modern conspiracy theories oppose commonly held scientific beliefs, whether
by proposing fictional technologies, such as implanted mind control chips, or denying existent
science, such as the existence of AIDS (Pegg, 2012). Similarly, modern conspiracies also require
significant historical revisionism. In contrast, the older conspiracy theories required fewer
deviations from reality. The older theories mainly misrepresented the motivations or desires of
large groups, and were defined by unfocused fear rather than specific plots.
Thus, a greater awareness of government fallibility, allowed by changes in mass media,
has shifted the focus of conspiracy theories from external enemies to the very body governing of
the believers. The view of modern foreign or alienated enemies and groups in American has
softened from that of World War II and the Cold War. However, the intensity of the scrutiny
focused on the American government by its citizens has increased to potentially harmful levels.
The typical modern conspiracy theory fosters anti-scientific thinking and can lead to poor
political choices and opposition to potentially beneficial programs, products, or laws. Similarly,
conspiracy theories draw attention away from actual issues. A populace too mired in conspiracy
theories would be paralyzed and ill-suited to compete and thrive in the future. Ultimately, the
shift from outward to inward focused conspiracy theories signifies greater mistrust of the
American government, which, while somewhat warranted by the actions of some, may ultimately
harm America and its citizens.

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