Annotated Bibliography

Research question: What are the potential repercussions of global warming in the southwest?
Global warming a controversial topic in the scientific community. The majority of the
community agrees that we need to act quickly to prevent further global warming. When
considering the potential repercussions of global warming it is important to consider how the
population of the southwest region of the United States will be affected by the changes. In
general it would appear that a majority of the population is unaware of the repercussions they
may be facing. This is important to know because it could potentially affect the lives of millions
of people. As a community we should have as much knowledge as possible to help ourselves
be more capable of handling the potential problems we face. The effects of global warming
could vary greatly based on the area we inhabit. Will these effects be baneful or beneficial to our
region? WIll the population be in the best position to take advantage of the potential benefits?
Or will be able to prepare for the potential of a catastrophic event? This is why I have decided to
research what the repercussions of global warming in the southwest could potentially be.
"Climate Change Causes: A Blanket around the Earth." Climate Change: Vital Signs of
the Planet. Web. 20 Apr. 2016.
Most climate scientists agree that the main cause of the current global warming trend is
human expansion of the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect is when the atmosphere
traps heat radiating from Earth towards space. NASA explains that certain gases in the
atmosphere block heat from escaping. This causes the atmosphere to return a large amount of
this energy back to our planet. There are numerous types of gases that contribute to the
greenhouse effect including water vapor, nitrous oxide, methane, and carbon dioxide. Each of
these gases can be produced naturally but can also be produced by human activity.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased by a third since the industrial revolution began. The
other greenhouse gases have increased but not nearly as much as carbon dioxide. There is
only one major contributor to the increase of carbon dioxide and that is human activity. NASA
stats that specifically, over the last century the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has
increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). This happens because the
coal or oil burning process combines carbon with oxygen in the air to make CO2. NASAs
research suggests that, The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have
raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million in
the last 150 years. Other scientists say that this could be a natural increase of a temperature
because the sun is putting out more energy. However since 1750 the energy output of the sun
has stayed constant or slightly increased.
This report gave some good information about what is causing global warming. This
article was able to give me the information needed to see why carbon is behind global warming.
This article did not give me any additional information about the southwest specifically but it is
important to know why carbon is the culprit behind global warming. They provided good sources
and reliable data.

Funk, C., & Alper, B. A. (2015, October 22). Religion and Views on Climate and Energy
Issues. Retrieved April 27, 2016, from http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/10/22/religion-andviews-on-climate-and-energy-issues
This study was conducted to see what the role religion was playing in the debate on
climate change. The Pew Research Center conducted numerous surveys to understand if
religion was shaping or shaped people's opinion on global warming. The survey found neither
religious affiliation nor frequency of attendance significantly predict perceptions of scientific
consensus about climate change. However it also indicates that a few specific demographics
are more likely to be advocates of climate change or oppose climate change.
I think it is significant when looking into such a political debate to also understand where
the religious communities view are in a matter as large as global warming. This important to my
research question because the southwest has a largely diverse culture and religion plays a
major factor in this diversity. Religion often plays a major role in politics and this is a major
political issue. It is imperative to understand what dynamics religion is playing in this debate.
Garfin, G., Jardine, A., & Feldman, D. L. (2013). Assessment of Climate Change in the
Southwest United States. Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States,
21-36. doi:10.5822/978-1-61091-484-0_2
This article specifically focuses on measurable and observed changes in the southwest
region of the united states and parts of mexico. It provides graphs and evidence around the
steady increase of temperature since 2001. Indicating that we are currently experiencing the
hottest records consistently It notes that the current droughts that are being experienced are the
most severe droughts in 2000 years. As well as indicates that water reservoirs are the lowests
they have been in twentieth century. It then shows evidence that these symptoms of climate
change will increase in severity. Average precipitation will decrease in the lower parts of the
region and could potentially increase in the higher points in the region. Increases in the severity
of winter and summer storms, increased flooding, degrees in streamflow, and soil moisture.
They include projections of all of these factors and show them with varying severity depending
on global trends. They also show the cycles of the repercussions and provide detail on how they
link to each other and causation.
This article is great as showing evidence of the current changes and then projecting
future changes. The article uses easy to understand language. The article has solid sources and
provides clear and concise evidence to their claims. Additionally they provide a worst case
scenario and a lesser scenario. They also do a great job at explaining why one effect will impact
another. They also provide answers on how to potentially remedy the issue. This is an extensive
article and provides numerous areas of expertise however I have narrowed what I have read to
be relevant to my subject matter.
Global Climate Change. (n.d.). Retrieved April 09, 2016, from http://climate.nasa.gov/

NASA presents numerous effects that global warming is causing and they provide pieces
of data on how the effects will continue to happen over time. NASA mentions already viewable
effects such as shrinking arctic glaciers, ice rivers breaking apart earlier than normal, as well as
a deviation in animal and plant ranges with trees blooming earlier than before. They mention
that these effects will grow in severity as greenhouse gases continue to increase. They forecast
that the average temperature will rise by 2.5-10 degrees over the next century. Additionally they
claim that certain regions will be devastated by these effects and other regions will likely benefit
from them. They give the rates of change for rising sea levels and the reduction of arctic ice.
They note that the rate of change for melting ice caps is 13.4 million square kilometers per
decade. The sea level will increase by 3.34 millimeters per year. Which means that by the year
2100 the sea level will rise by one to four feet. Nasa goes on to mention how specific regions
will be affected by these changes. The south west will have effects including Increased heat,
drought and insect outbreaks, all linked to climate change, have increased wildfires. Declining
water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, health impacts in cities due to heat, and flooding and
erosion in coastal areas are additional concerns.
This source was a treasure trove of data ranging from scientific evidence, causes of the
effects, what the effects will be, even solutions to the issue. Since my question is more
specifically about what the immediate effects will be I looked specifically into the effects
articles.This article gives a plethora of important data about climate change. It notes numerous
future effects of global warming It gives provides a great start to answering the question I am
researching. However it does lack a more specific focus on my research question. It backs up
the data it presents with reliable sources. I do notice that a majority of the information that it is
presents is pulled from another primary source on global warming. I will investigate if NASAs
sources have more specific data to my region.
Goklany, Indur M. "Carbon Dioxide." Http://www.thegwpf.org. The Global Warming Policy
Foundation., Sept. 2015. Web.
Goklany discusses the benefits or carbon dioxide. Goklany provides evidence that the
increase in carbon has lead to more benefit than detriment. Goklany points towards reputable
studies that have shown that increase in crop yield has increased because of the rising level of
carbon. He also notes that some marine ecosystems have also benefited from carbon dioxide
increases. He argues that the ability for humans to adapt has increased significantly in the last
century and will continue to increase. This will allow humans to adapt to any warming that is
correlated with carbon dioxide level increases. Additionally he challenges the models that
scientists are using to measure the rate of temperature increase. The benefit from carbon
dioxide level increases are reliable and the models used to determine how detrimental
temperature increases are is unreliable.
Goklany uses solid sources for the data he presents around the benefits of carbon
dioxide to plant growth and crop yield. He makes valid argument that the human population is
very capable of adapting to moderate climate change. Goklany did use reliable sources

however none of the sources he used were conducted to measure the overall benefit of carbon
dioxide. Additionally some of the sources he used were not submitted to peer review. Lastly
Goklany has received numerous awards from the hartland think tank which is known to be
organized by large oil companies. Nevertheless some of the data presented was convincing to a
certain extent. I want to find more information from single writers. I have mostly researched
large scale studies I want to find an expert in the field and find out what they have to say.
Hansen, J. Et al. (2015, July 23). Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: Evidence from
paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming
could be dangerous. Retrieved April 22, 2016, from http://www.atmos-chemphys.net/16/3761/2016/acp-16-3761-2016.pdf
Hansen et al. states that We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and
modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland.
Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase
subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting They use this data to provide evidence to the
increase of energy that the earth is absorbing. Resulting in temperature increases the feedback
output resulting in sea levels rising by 6-9 meters over the next two centuries. Additionally
Hansen provides details about the increase in temperature increasing the amount of water
vapor being distributed via storms. Hansen provides data about the incline of severe storms.
This is large scale research program that is conducted by numerous scientists to provide a
larger picture of the problem.
This is an extremely thorough report from numerous credible sources. They show huge
amounts of data compiled through numerous agencies to get a large scale picture of the issue.
Each source is credible and peer reviewed. A significant amount of data in this report is above
my level of understanding and is targeting the scientific community. They conclude that the we
have the science to provide evidence significant enough to warrant change. Hansen does not
dispute that some areas will be positively affected but overall it will be to near impossible to
remedy the situation the longer we postpone action.
Hornsey, M. J., Harris, E. A., Bain, P. G., & Fielding, K. S. (2016). Meta-analyses of the
determinants and outcomes of belief in climate change. Nature Climate Change Nature
Climate Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate2943
In this article they took twenty-seven variables and cross examined them by synthesizing
25 polls and 171 academic studies across 56 nations. In an attempt to understand what
determining factors will relate to one's beliefs in global warming. Two broad conclusions
emerged. First, many obvious variables such as education, sex, subjective knowledge, and
experience of extreme weather events were overwhelmed by predictive power of values,
ideologies, worldviews and political orientation. Additionally climate change beliefs have only a
small to moderate effect on the extent to which people are willing to act in climate-friendly ways.
They also discuss ideas on how to get a believer of global warming to take action. As well as
how to convert a skeptic into a believer.

This article is important to help us understand the beliefs of the people who are in favor
or against global warming action. It helps us understand those who are likely going to aid in the
efforts to protect the environment from potentially negative repercussions The reason why this is
specifically important in my research paper. Is we have a general understanding of the
demographics in the southwest. This helps us understand how people in our area are
interpreting the information presented to them around climate change.
National Climate Assessment. (n.d.). Retrieved April 09, 2016, from
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/southwest
The National Climate Assessment indicated five key messages around the impact of
global warming on the southwest region of the united states. These messages are reduced
snowpacks and streamflow, threat to agriculture, increased wildfires, sea level rise and coastal
damage, and heat threats to health. Regional average temperatures are projected to increase
by a couple degrees, and have the potential to increase by five degrees. This temperature
increase could lead to infrastructure damage, lower crop yield, and dramatically increase power
usage. According to the assessment Temperature-driven reductions in snowpack are
compounded by dust and soot accumulation on the surface of snowpack. This layer of dust and
soot, transported by winds from lowland regions, increases the amount of the suns energy
absorbed by the snow. This leads to earlier snowmelt and evaporation both of which have
negative implications for water supply, alpine vegetation, and forests. California also is actively
in a water shortage and is projected to get worse in the coming years. This projection is not
even taking the climate change into effect and will result in even worse water shortage
conditions as time progresses. The south west region is also responsible for more than half of
the high value crops the united states produces. These crops are more vulnerable to extreme
heat, cold, and moisture. This will have a significant effect on the economy. With temperature
increases we will be suffer from more severe droughts which will leave us more vulnerable to
wildfire. There will also be an impact on the sea-level. This could risk 420,000 citizens homes as
well as have an impact the largest ocean based economy in the country. They attribute this
global warming issue to carbon increases.
This was an extensive report on the types of damage that can occur to the southwest
region of the united states. The assessment provided great references and sound scientific
data. This assessment is a collaboration of several scientific institutions that compiled data
around projections of damage. However I notice they do not speak about other possible
outcomes. They seem to only talking about one side of the debate. With this being large scale
scientific assessment I would assume that they would also play devil's advocate however they
seem to only argue one side. This has lead me to find opposition to their argument as well as
find out what the are the causes of global warming. More specifically why carbon is the main
contributor to global warming.

"Transcript of "Why I Must Speak out about Climate Change"" James Hansen: Why I
Must Speak out about Climate Change. Web. 20 Apr. 2016.
James Hansen talks about his motivation to speak out about global warming. Hansen
talks about greenhouse gases and how they are responsible for containing the energy in the
atmosphere. Hansen states in his TED talk Adding CO2 to the air is like throwing another
blanket on the bed. It reduces Earth's heat radiation to space, so there's a temporary energy
imbalance. More energy is coming in than going out, until Earth warms up enough to again
radiate to space as much energy as it absorbs from the Sun. So the key quantity is Earth's
energy imbalance. He speaks about his initial pleas with the government about the issue.
Recently they have been able to find mean to measure earth's heat reservoirs. This ability to
measure heat disbursement makes the evidence indisputable. Hansen provides about how
much energy we are taking in and not putting out. He states The total energy imbalance now is
about six-tenths of a watt per square meter. That may not sound like much, but when added up
over the whole world, it's enormous. It's about 20 times greater than the rate of energy use by
all of humanity. It's equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day 365 days
per year. That's how much extra energy Earth is gaining each day. This imbalance, if we want to
stabilize climate, means that we must reduce CO2 from 391 ppm, parts per million, back to 350
ppm.That is the change needed to restore energy balance and prevent further warming. He
discusses methods of reducing our energy output to balance our atmosphere. Hansen also talks
about what the repercussions look like for the world and mentions how the southwest will be
affected by extreme droughts.
Hansen does a great job and explaining the science behind his research. He appeals to
emotions by mentioning his grandchildren and the problems they will face by our failure to take
action on global warming. This is a TED talk so he there are no sources provided for me to
research his sources. However he is a reputable figurehead in the field and has numerous
published works.
In conclusion the data I have collected would indicate that global warming will have more
negative effects on the southwest region then positive effects. It would also appear that the
scientific community cannot provide concrete data on what the repercussions will be exactly.
They do present the potential of the problem though. If we fail to act the southwest could suffer
from drought, coastal damage, and agricultural loss. Potentially uproot families, damaging
billions of dollars in coastal infrastructure, and create scarcity of food and water for millions. It is
in the best interest of the global community to act quickly to limit and reverse the damage
caused by the increase of greenhouse gases There is no downside to working towards effective
means of producing clean energy that do not create additional greenhouse gases. Even though
the range of effects are not conclusive and some would argue that some regions would be
positively affected.