Examining the spatial characteristics of

rainfall during drought periods in the

Caribbean using CHIRPS
Jos J. Hernndez Ayala
PhD Candidate
Department of Geography
University of Florida

Drought in The Greater Antilles of The Caribbean

Drought Definitions
Droughts are commonly defined as
meteorological, agricultural, or
hydrological.
Meteorological droughts are periods of
below-normal rainfall.
Agricultural droughts, follow
meteorological droughts and affect crops as
well as natural flora and fauna.
A hydrological drought is manifested by
reduced streamflow, and lowered
groundwater and lake levels

Problem Statement
The Caribbean is expected to become dryer
by the end of the century.
More frequent droughts will bring more
environmental and socio-economic issues.
This research focuses on two main questions:
Which of the recent droughts has been the
one that has affected most of the region?
Were there spatial similarities in rainfall
patterns during recent drought periods ?

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Elevation

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Study Area
Legend
(m)

Rainfall Rainy Season (mm)

Causes of Drought in the Caribbean

El Nio Southern
Oscillation (ENSO)
Less tropical cyclones
Stronger westerly flow
North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO)

Less frontal systems

moving to the Caribbean.

CHIRPS Data
Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data
(CHIRPS) is a 30+ year quasi-global rainfall dataset.
Spanning 50S-50N (and all longitudes), starting in 1981 to nearpresent.

CHIRPS incorporates 0.05 resolution satellite imagery with insitu station data (Funk et al., 2015).
Gridded rainfall time series for trend analysis and seasonal
drought monitoring.
Four drought periods were considered (1994, 1997, 2009 and
2015)
This study used three monthly total rainfall anomalies for four
month groups (MJJ, JJA, JAS and ASO).

Methods
After pre-processing the CHIRPS
anomaly data (00-15 mean) all periods
were classified in different groups.
Extreme (-300 mm or more) anomalies
Severe (-299 to -100) anomalies
Moderate (-99 to -50) anomalies
Overlay Analysis was implemented to
examine spatial characteristics between
events.

Results: Reclassify (JAS)

1994 (JAS)

1997 (JAS)

2009 (JAS)

2015 (JAS)

JAS Extreme
Area (sq.km)
JAS Severe
1994
3212.602281
1997
163.675758
2009
323.198921
2015
13273.28709

Total Rainfall Anomalies (mm)

Area (sq.km)
JAS Moderate
Area (sq.km)
1994
81549.58542
1994
44341.29703
Extreme (-300 or >)
1997
29693.99814
1997
33191.2847
Severe (-299 to -100)
2009
124168.2882
2009
74193.68046
Moderate (-99 to -50)
2015
152690.0972
2015
38973.52606

Results: Group Month Comparisons

Extreme MJJ
Area (%)

Severe MJJ
Area (%)

9%

Moderate MJJ
Area (%)

13%

15%

7%
0%

Severe JJA
Area (%)

Extreme JJA
Area (%)

Moderate JJA
Area (%)

16%

26%
1%
0%
51%

29%

32%

35%

38%

26%

37%
22%
84%

10%

Extreme JAS
Area (%)

Severe JAS
Area (%)

19%

Moderate JAS
Area (%)
21%

21%

31%

20%

Extreme ASO
Area (%)

Severe ASO
Area (%)

22%
30%

33%
1%
2%

Moderate ASO
Area (%)

13%

22%

23%

8%

7%

83%

12%

39%
1%

8%

53%
17%
24%

78%

32%

39%

27%
42%

21%

Results: Spatial Characteristics

1994-2015 (Jun-Jul-Aug)

2009-2015 (Aug-Sept-Oct)

Total Rainfall Anomalies (mm)

Extreme
Severe
Moderate

Extreme JJA
Severe JJA
Moderate JJA
Years
Area
Years
Area
Years
Area
1994-1997 57.49803 1994-1997
17914.76208 1994-1997
3322.709
1994-2009
0 1994-2009
28893.64118 1994-2009
19644.06
1994-2015 1095.864 1994-2015
75114.88966 1994-2015
20684.13
1997-2009
0 1997-2009
8293.971722 1997-2009
3708.279
1997-2015 59.33224 1997-2015
18352.41578 1997-2015
1444.304
2009-2015
0 2009-2015
34549.21964 2009-2015
11673.72

Extreme ASO
Severe ASO
Moderate ASO
Years
Area
Years
Area
Years
Area
1994-1997
61.99355 1994-1997
16669.99921 1994-1997
5103.527
1994-2009
982.988 1994-2009
43053.01093 1994-2009
9638.515
1994-2015
1206.287 1994-2015
27464.73788 1994-2015
12536.8
1997-2009
0 1997-2009
34324.00953 1997-2009
4219.057
1997-2015
24.83789 1997-2015
35890.58789 1997-2015
11121.32
2009-2015
1340.962 2009-2015
114618.6283 2009-2015
11897.85

Results: Spatial Characteristics (Area %)

1997-2015 2009-2015
8%
0%

1994-2009
0% 1997-1994-2015
9%
2009
0%

1994-1997
20%

1997-2009
0%

1994-1997
10%

Severe MJJ

Extreme MJJ

1994-2009
0%
20092015
61%

19942015
72%

1994-1997
Extreme JAS
2009-2015
1997-2015
4%
1994-2009
14%
4%

19941997
8%

20092015
34%

1997-2009
3%

2009-2015
26%

1994-2009
3%
1994-2015
7%
1997-2009
12%

1997-2015
25%

Moderate JAS 1994-1997

11%

1994-2009
20%

19942015
70%

20092015
24%
1997-2015
3%

1997-2015
8%

1994-1997
27%

1997-2015
20%

Severe JAS

5%

Moderate MJJ

1997-2009
8%

1994-2015
22%

1994-2009
30%

1997-2009
11%
1994-2015
21%

Conclusions
The 2015 drought was the event with the largest areas under extreme and severe
rainfall anomalies.
The 1994 and 2015 droughts were similar in their spatial characteristics of rainfall
(extreme and severe anomalies) for the earlier season months May to July and
June to August.
The 2009 and 2015 droughts were similar in their spatial characteristics of rainfall
for July to September and August to October.
The 1997 drought did not exhibit large areas with extreme or severe rainfall
anomalies in the Caribbean when compared to other periods even though there
was a strong ENSO event.

Future Research
Future work will examine the atmospheric conditions (moisture, pressure,
wind) of each of the drought periods to identify similarities or differences
between them.
Future studies will also look at the role that tropical cyclones (their absence
or higher frequency) play in drought events in the Caribbean.
Several teleconnections such as ENSO, NAO and AMO will be examined in
order to understand their combined effects on drought periods in the
Caribbean.

Questions?