SME6024 Teaching

Statistics & Probability

Lecture 1- Definitions of
statistics & its uses

Discussion:
What is STATISTICS?

What is statistics?
If we were to ask ordinary people what statistics is
about, probably we would obtain many answers. To
most of them, statistics means numbers numerical
facts, figures or information.
Others often associated statistics with counting and
calculations which they find boring, tedious and difficult
(Blejec, 2003).
In a study on the attitudes towards statistics of
students who are entering tertiary education in
Australia, Philips (2010) reported that many students
viewed statistics as mere number crunching exercises
or making sense of data by drawing tables and graphs.

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A survey of introductory statistics textbooks gives the
definition of statistics as a discipline dealing with all
aspects of the collection, processing, presentation and
interpretation of data (Freund & Perles, 2004; Clarke &
Cooke, 2005; Moore, 2005).
Aliaga and Gunderson (2008) define statistics as an
iterative process of learning about the world around us
and the process comprised of four steps as shown in the
diagram below (Figure 1).
They argue that it is iterative because decision made
may be that to update the theory and gather more data
or the results do not give convincing answers and this
may suggest new theories

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The various components or steps (beginning with step (1)) in the process are connected and can be
likened to cyclical stages.

Formulate theories (1)

Interpret Results &

Collect
Make Decisions (4)
Data (2)

Summarise Results (3)

Figure 1 : Statistics as an iterative process of learning
Source : (Aliaga & Gunderson, 2008)

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According to the Oxford Dictionary of English
Etymology (Onions, 2003), statistics is more
concerned with exploring, summarising and
making inferences about the state of complex
systems: for example, the state of a nation
(official statistics), the state of peoples health
(medical and health statistics) and the state of
the environment (environmental statistics)
and so on. As such, its scope is enormous and
provides useful insights into as many states
as our imagination allows.

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Some definitions view statistics as a branch of
mathematics. Without doubt, statistics had its
foundations in mathematics and was considered as
probabilistic inference based on mathematics
(Nicholls, 2002).
However, Moore (2005) argues that statistics did
not originate within mathematics. He stresses that
statistics is a separate discipline in its own right,
with its own concepts and types of reasoning and
with characteristic modes of thinking that are more
fundamental than either specific methods or
mathematical theory.

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Gal and Garfield (1997) outline five key differences between mathematics and statistics as follows:

In statistics, the context motivates procedures and is the source of meaning and basis for
interpretation of results of such activities.
The indeterminacy, messiness or context-boundedness of statistics is markedly different from the
more precise, finite nature characterising traditional learning in mathematics.
Mathematical concepts and procedures are used as part of the attempt to manage or solve
statistical problems, and some technical facility with them may be expected in certain courses and
educational levels. However, the need for accurate application of computations or execution of
procedures is rapidly being replaced by the need for selective, thoughtful and accurate use of
technological devices and increasingly sophisticated software programmes.
The fundamental nature of many statistical problems is that they do not have a single
mathematical solution. Rather, realistic statistical problems usually start with a question and
culminate with the presentation of an opinion that may have different degrees of reasonableness.
A primary aim of statistical education is to enable students to be able to render reasoned
descriptions, judgements, inferences and opinions about data or argue about the interpretation of
data, using various mathematical tools only to the degree needed. Judgements and inferences
expected of students very often cannot be characterised as right or wrong. Instead, they have
to be evaluated in terms of quality of reasoning, adequacy of methods employed and nature of
data and evidence used.

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Moore (2005) also points out the
difference between what a
mathematician and a statistician
might do regarding to numbers. The
former would study numbers as
abstract concepts without a context
while the latter would study numbers
only in the context of what these
numbers might represent in this
world.

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Another definition of statistics includes the study of probability. Collins English Dictionary
(Butterfield, 2003) in one of two definitions mentioned statistics as the classification and
interpretation of quantitative data in accordance to probability theory and the application of
methods such as hypothesis testing.
Continental Europeans normally use the word stochastic for this broader definition (Garfield &
Ahlgren, 2008). Throughout this course the term statistics will be used to include statistics and
probability. The inclusion of probability in the definition is probably justified because we live in a
world which is full of uncertainty. Much of the present and definitely all of the future are uncertain.
According to Lindley (1991), since statistics is the study of uncertainty, probability is the only
sensible measure of it. It is only natural to quantify the uncertainty so that this abstract idea could
be seen as something tangible to ordinary people before making any decision in any particular
situation.
The connection between uncertainty and making decisions is also highlighted by the Cockcroft
Committee (1982) with the following statement:

.statistics is not just a set of techniques, it is an attitude of mind approaching data. In particular,
it acknowledges the fact of uncertainty and variability in data and data collection. It enables
people to make decisions in the face of this uncertainty.

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Biehler (2005) points out that implicit or explicit answers to the
question what is statistics? have been highly variable in history. These
answers, he claims, are very important in curriculum design and
research as well as in teacher education.
For example, Gnanadesikan and Kettenring (2003) characterise
statistics as data science with close synergetic relations to mathematics
and computing science.
Biehler (2005) argues that this is in fact a very modern definition which
brings the changed nature of statistics. He elaborates that this
definition puts data at the centre of statistics and computing science on
an equal standing with mathematics as a closely related discipline.

As statistics is such a politically contentious word (Bibby, 2007), it

would not be surprising if the meaning of statistics might change in the
future in tandem with progress made in other fields such as in computer
technology, economy, politics and social development.

Discussion
What are uses/applications of
statistics?

Uses/Applications of
statistics
The use and applications of statistics are ubiquitous.
If we pick up a daily newspaper, we would find charts,
graphs and words such as unlikely, chances,
average, trends, correlations, estimates and
margin of errors. They are all in the domain of
statistics.
The quantitative information is important to all of us in
making decisions or simply to keep us well informed.
Similarly, when we tune in to a radio station, turn on the
television or surf the internet we would probably be
inundated with a lot of data and claims from the
advertisers and pollsters. Some might be true and some
might be just blatant exaggeration.

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As consumers and citizens of the world, we have to be careful when we
are bombarded or confronted with abundant statistical information. The
statistics may appear credible but it may be misused which leads to
statistical doublespeak the inflated, involved, and often deliberately
ambiguous use of numbers (Haack, 2001).
Statistics can also be thought as an appealing secret language which is
used to sensationalise or to oversimplify (Huff, 2003).
When Benjamin Disraeli, the 19th century British Prime Minister, coined
the infamous phrase Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics, he highlighted a
popular conception of statistics as selectively manipulating and
distorting real world data (Rogerson, 2006).
Some people make cynical remarks about statistics, like the famous
psychologist Carl Jung who claimed that you can prove anything with
statistics which is of course not really true (Klass, 2002), or Esars
sarcastic description of statistics as the science of producing unreliable
facts from reliable figures (Gaither & Cavazal-Gaither, 2006).

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According to Best (2001), there are good statistics and
bad statistics.
We need good statistics to help us to summarise and
clarify the nature of our complex society such as when
we talk about social problems.
Best described bad statistics as numerical information
based on nothing more than pure guesses or sourced
from dubious data.
He argued that bad statistics are potentially important
too. For examples, they can be used to stir up public
outrage or fear, they can confuse the understanding of
our world and they can lead our leaders to make poor
policy choices.

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Statistics pervades many fields in our life such as in education, arts and
science, economics, health, politics and engineering.
In fact, statistics is sometimes thought as a users discipline or a servant
discipline (Wild and Pfannkuch, 2008).
Because of its importance, society including parents, teachers, students
and adults in general need to be educated in statistics. As Florence
Nightingale once said:
To understand Gods thoughts, we must study statistics for these are the
measures of His thoughts (Howard, 2008).
Howard (2008) explains that what Nightingale meant is that the universe
was evolving in accordance with a divine plan and it was up to the people
to understand this plan by using statistics to guide actions in line with it.
A layman might not necessarily agree with Nightingales view but it
shows how relevant statistics is to explain social and natural phenomena
and events that occur throughout the history of mankind.

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As such, every one of use must have the skills to
understand and use numbers especially since we
live in a knowledge-based society and economy.
In other words, we have to be statistically literate.
In this context, Podehl (2002) defines statistical
literacy as the ability to
i) understand and interpret statistical data;
ii) critically evaluates statistical information and
data related arguments;
iii) use the information in context of daily life; and
iv) discuss and communicate ones reactions

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Thus, when we look at data, we must look at it
intelligently.
Moore (2005) suggests that we should ask questions
such as what is the source of the data?, do the data
makes sense ? and is the information complete ?.
Therefore, it is important for all of us, especially
students at every level, to be exposed to statistics
teaching or instruction.
As pointed out by Nisbett et al. (2007), much
research has provided evidence that instruction in
statistics is one of the factors that help us to reason
effectively about data and chance in everyday life.