9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems

KTH, Stockholm, Sweden - June 11-15, 2006

RI s Analsis in

namic Termal Overhea

LineRat'ing
Edward Siwy

Abstract-- Making the most of the load capacity of the existing

transmission and distribution system is now of great importance.

The real value of the load capacity of an overhead line depends

significantly on actual weather conditions. The method of line
rating using the real risk analysis is described in the paper. The
overhead line ampacity calculated using the risk evaluation has
different values in comparison to traditional methods. The
ampacity for the lower amhient temperature is usually set too
high while the ampacity for the higher ambient temperature is
set too low. The incorrectly calculated line rating can cause the
significant conductor temperature and sag increase or
incomplete utilization of the line load capacity.

Index Terms-- Overhead Line Rating, Load Capacity,

Stochastic Process, Risk Analysis.

I. INTRODUCTION

TRADITIONALLY, power utilities operated in

assumptions taken into account during the calculations.

Essential parameters values from pretty wide range are used. in

different countries and individual utilities [2]
The maximal permissible conductor temperature is the

_
.
mechanincrtio foarampaitci calcuti Ite
t

lmo tednby

mytehanical
carcermisticlesaofcondutor materesiaoromor othen
bytemxalprisleagnthlneeutngfo te

minimal permissible distance from the earth surface and

crossed objects. Chosen values for typical ACSR conductor
are shown in Table 1.
TABLE I
MAXIMAL PERMISSIBLE OPERATING TEMPERATURE OF ACSR CONDUCTORS

USED nv NETWORK OPER-ATORS

Tem-perature in 'C

Country

50115

USA

Ca0da75

a tightly
50 790
Scndnai
Iregulated and predictable environment where investments
in transmission system were planned many years in advance.
Poland.
4080
Changes of the loads of transmission network caused by the
of the
market
can be now more frequent
development ise
energy inmls1l
Weather conditions are another essential parameters
calculationst
presente
[1]uo
Theeatr mahmaia mode
In
and
faster.
a
modern
access"~
circuit
environment,
'open
lines are
influencing
ampacity calculations.
The overhead
sinlifcaludes
o weather
ctacondtinsad thineload inlunc on
Asueddffretvaus
of mentione
abv parameters
in
load
and large
uncertain
changes
capital expenditures
for
of
maximum
usually
average
daily
evlationg
rated.
expected.
oflr are
conducto
ri tempratures
in
thsriedsthead
pandqai
The
edtosgiiatdifrnenraigrsls
calulte
adthelreulating
ditribtionsystms
ae usallynottemperature
of the hottest
month. used
The solar
of 1000
stlreadytranmisson
state Buacty
ampaityL dependis
stronglyo has
on mpClaciltyforcthretypical
conducotor
in Pls
tranmissiottn
heating
of load capacity
of the etwr
acceptable. Therefore
making the omost
______________________
opliol
laiill
ehd.T
W/M2
is isusually
taken into
nausir
phe
resented
There
are
plin
Tableconsideration.
IIIg r the lreresults
rl different
shwtesrongth
and. tersityo
distribution
is ofEectrical
of great values
existing
of aofdferlsben
wind speedpisarametr
a wind angle
used in
U.Sciwy transmission
15rwth Seslane Unbivll
Teholglines
Eacualty
influence
theoerhea
linfaerating
(see TablefolnII) and
importance.
calculations.
Most
of
utilities
seasonal
distinguish
ratings.
EnieernInslw.TitueilLorretl
PoweruSytems Eninete
raing candLcas
so r rT l
Cotrol
The realStvalue
thee load
an
line Some of them calculate night and. day ampacity.
capacity
2 KzywusLtego
44 - of
100 Gliwc
Polrand
(e-mal:ofdwarcLsi
a overhead.
u polsl)
depends significantly on actual weather conditions. It is
therefore a dynamic value which can change in a wide range.
TABLE II
WIND
SPEED
AsSUMED
FOR
OVERHEAD
LINE RATING CALCULATIONS
use
different
methods
to
Nowadays many of system operators
.~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Copyright =KTH.2006
increase the transmission capacity. Most of them calculate the
Wind speed in rn/s
Country
overhead. lines ampacity using less conservative assumpsions.
0 ,5
JSApa
But the real risk of exceeding conductor temperature limit is
h
usually not explicitly determined by the calculations.
UK
0,5 0,7

aI.OVERHEAD LINE RATING METHODS

The detailed. description of overhead. line ampacity

France

Scandinavia
Germany
Poland

0r6

1 0

0,6
0,5

9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems

KTH, Stockholm, Sweden - June 11-15, 2006

2
TABLE III

CALCULATED OVERHEAD TRANSMISSION LINE RATINGS WITH ACSR 525 MM2

CONDUCTORS ASSUMING DIFFERENT VALUES OF ESSENTIAL PARAMETERS

(VALUES WITH OR WITHOUT SOLAR HEATING OF 1 000 W/M2 IN AMPERES)

Conductor

temperature

Wind speed

40

0,0
0,5

limit in C

0,6

___
1 0_
00
50

0,5
0,6
1,0

0,0

05

0,6
10

0,0
0,5
0,6
80

i,0

0,0

100

0,5

0,6
10

Ambient temperature in C

10

20

443/804
569/879
407/807
716/998
758/1028
883/1122

0/420
0/557
0/574
0/627
0/650
436/822
482/847
608/923

1006/1193
1049/1229

863/1076
903/1109

685/941
723/968

765/1000

0/612

30

361/762
670/947
712/976
834/1068
634/940
908/1142
952/1177
1085/1286

398/780

6 13/890

1179/1341

1024/1208

1239/1385
1284/1425

1135/1293
1177/1330

1018/1192

1423/1551
1397/1557

1634/1772

1689/1822
1856/1977

911/1103

408/765

836/1055
789/1005
1016/1190
1056/1224

1308/1446
1299/1470

1177/1330
1192/1377

1539/1685

1434/1590

1590/1732
1749/1877

1483/1634

where:

resistive heat input,

P- solar heat input,

Pk - convective heat output,

PI,- radiated heat output.

Solar heat input can be calculated using the temperature of the

NRS sensor 9NRS as follows:

determined during the calculations.

III. OVERHEAD LINE RATING CALCULATIONS BASED ON

MEASUREMENT RESULTS
A research project with a goal of real overhead line
ampacity determination wasO initiaedn in Polean in 200.
Monitoring system (CAT-i) was installed on chosen

(2)

(3)
(4

where:

j- thermal conductivity of the air,

nR

temperature,

a-Nbsent tenperature,
Nu- Nusselto diuamber,

Nu

D - conductor diameter
- conductor

emissivity,
Stefan-Boltzmann
constant.
5B
-

The Nusselt number depends on Reynolds number (Re):

1632/1770B

Nowadays many of system operators use the line ampacity

as a function of ambient temperature. It allows to increase the
transmission capacity most of time during a year. The
ampacity is then calculated assuming specified weather
conditions, i.e. wind speed 0.5 mls and solar heating 1000
W/m2. It is assumed that these weather conditions happen
rarely enough. But the real probability and the scale of the
exceeding conductor temperature limit is not explicitly

P = PI + P
/
9A )Nu
f9ANRS
2
-('9 l'273 )4
B,9
/}/A

Nu = B, (Re) n +A B2 (sin 9)')7

(5)

where B1, n are coefficients depending on Reynolds number

value and roughness of the conductor surface whereas A1, B2,
m1 are coefficients depending on wind. direction related to the
line 5 The Reynolds number can be calculated as follows:
Re =pVD / v

(6)

where:
p, - air density,
V- wind speed,
v - kinematic viscosity of the air.

Wind speed measured on a tower usually does not reflect

exactly the effective cooling wind. along the line section. The
speed as well as the direction of the wind changes very often
transmission lines. The ambient temperature, the solar heating, along the line section. For the specific line load it is possible
the wind speed and direction, as well as the line tension and. to calculate the effective equivalent wind. speed (perpendicular
load have been measured. On the basis of the line tension the to the line) if the average conductor temperature is known.
real average conductor temperature in a line section can be This temperature (,9) can be calculated from the line tension.
calculated. For the assessment of the solar heating a special For the calculation of the effective wind speed the following
sensor (NRS) has been used. It gives the temperature of equation can be used:
unloaded but insolated model of the conductor. Another
monitoring systems and methods are described in [3,4].
PI PV
n
r
(7)
Using measured values of above mentioned. parameters the
dyvnamic line- rating cann he- calculatedt modlifying the- modelp
PrD I 91Q9, - L9 A )B,
described inL [1]. The goal of the calculationls is the dynlamic
A comparisonl betweenl measured anld calculated effective
lilne amXpacity for actual weather colnditiolns assuming the
specific permissible conlductor temperature. The heat halanlce winld speed is presenlted inl Fig. 1. As the results shownl
is performned usinlg the followinlg basic equation:
signlificanlt differenlces canl he obtainled. The effective winld
speed has been used also inl applicationrs presenrted inr [5,6].

C Copyright KTH 2006

9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems

KTH, Stockholm, Sweden -June 11-1 5, 2006

Parts of cumulative distributions of the line ampacities for

-Effective -Measured
oa

bin

em eatrsar

wni

Fg

su in

..................................................................................................................................

01-06-20

01-06-20

01-06-2001-06-20 01-06-20
01-06-25. . . . . .

M
speedo
Fi7 .0 asrd0n
calculated................................................ effectivew
windliy

Knowing the actual ambient temperature,

the solar heating
and the effective wind speed the actual line be...............
rating can
..............................

du

0,02............................................

to

lmi
tmp

raur

....0....100......200.......300......400.......00

IV...STATISTICAL.. ANALYSIS..OF..OVERHEAD..LtNE.AMPACITY..Fig...3..Pa s uf..cumulative..distributi...ns..f.the..line.ampacities...fur.tw.

The calculated line ampacity can be treated as a random ambient temperatures.....................................

value and it's probability distribution can be studied...........However,...it.should..be..emphasized,...that.the..actual..sustained.
Assuming the acceptable risk of the conductor temperature risk depends not only on this probability..............but.also..on.values..of
limitexceeding a static line ampacity (single value) can be the exceeding............Seldom..occurring..but..higher.exceeding...causing
specifiedseason.
determinforedawhoyleoraar Butthe~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . . . . . . . . .
resulting
......line... rating....is..usually....very....conservative.......A..big.. sags...in..the...line...is..usuallyxcedimuch..
more hedangerous
i
bthanrmi
cn often

comparison....between..the..rating...and..real..line..ampacity..is..only..the..probability...of.
the..conductor...temperature...limit.
sh wn
inFi.~...exceedng........but....also....ifs....statisti.cal.........di...tr...button......(see....Fg.....4)...
ac........................i.......................................

.......................0...2

02 ,1
00:00
00:00 00:00..00:00.00:00.00:00..00:00.00:00
02 0 2 02~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~00~~~~~00 02 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~07 02 003
5 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~11 02~~~~~~~~~00~~~~~~12 02 0~~~~~~~~....15*...........*......i......iihhh.i ...............

Fig.2.Summerratinganduverhead
realampaciuftany line withA240
CRS

The

minicunductur

'

00 '(T

.................0,5.1,5..2,5..2,5.4,5..5,5..6,5.7,5..5,5.

0,5.10,5..11,5..12,5

temperature
exce dinIgCl~ ~Conductor
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~..............................
Fig.4.Cunductur
temperaturelimit
exce ding distrihutituruntwuambient~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~........................................................

ampacity calculated
monitoring datafromcan

be~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.......................................
alsoaasstocastic t parameters
Onetreatedof
process.
e
is
As the results showt excedisdtirnigblimit
utioen atte~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
value.
thenasruaasmnaedcan
otomIt
bethe time (a lower ambient temperature rating(higher
)ismuch more~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
statisticvariabilispecified
toytfhelineampaincity hours of dangerous.
Although
oftprobability
theexce eding isequal,~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
more or analyzed)
thedayisthen often ambient
the
values
it's
could bemuch
higher.
aTphroemprearfsoure~, ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
temperatur(e astatiampacity
stivcariabilioftlyihene caused of the real riskincurred
bynetwork operator can be he.a~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
byotherweathcoenrdthenitisionsAs
analyzed).
result
a the specified percentile ofconductor
temperature limitexce ding.~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
line
random
ampaciastyasnot
tatiofstfuincatlion parameter
The ampacity of different
conductors havebeencalculated~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
is gien whre th.rsk (pob bliy) of th .cctr.sig
nd
ab vedecrbe.rle..t.une.ot.ha.te eltinsi
temperature
limit exceeding is equal for every value of the not between the ambient temperature
and
thealmost~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.......
lineratingis
random parameter.
faorinom afbandlinear.
ratingispresented
The in Fig. 5.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Copyright KTH 2006....

9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems

KTH, Stockholm, Sweden - June 11-15, 2006

rating makes much better use of the line load capacity

But the real risk of the conductor temperature limit
exceeding is not properly reflected as presented lines 4 and 5
in Fig. 7 show. For instance if the acceptable risk is on the
lower level (line 4) the line rating is set too high for the
ambient temperatures lower than 28C. The expected
probability and first of all the values of the conductor

'possible.

1600
1400
ACSR525

1200

1000

8000-

6
00~
600

*:

ACSR 240

temperature limit exceeding are too high. If the ambient

temperature is above 28C the line load capacity is not fully

///1

used.

400

1300

200

1200
1100

-6

-10

10
16
20
Ambient temperature (C)1

26

30

36

___

4100___-

Fig. 5. Overhead line rating as a funetion nf ambient temperature for two

conductors .

_=w____

2
800

The upper and lower borders have been calculated

assuming maximum and minimumn acceptable risk of the

conductor temperature limit exceeding (more or less
conservative attitude).

of the line rating has been

calculated. An example is shown in Fig. 6. It is worth to
mention, that the calculated line rating is growing up in the

Similarly

daily

profitable
It is
is profitable
load load
is high.
thetime
network
timewhensame
when the network
is high. It

especially during the daily peal load.

7001

Average ampacity

10
15
20
Ambient temperature (C)

25

30

35

1-summerlinerating 2-winterlinerating 3-traditionallycalculated

dynamic thermal line rating, 4,5 - statistic line rating (two different acceptable

risk

levels)

Fig. 7. Overhead line rating using different calculations methods (ACRS

conductors)

800

700

-5

curve

same

900

700
600
500

The presented above statistical risk analysis can be

confirmed with an analysis of the conductor temperature
sensitivity to the load or the weather conditions changing. The
relative conductor temperature increase Ad9 caused by the
wind speed V and direction 5as well as the line load I changes
are presented in Table IV. Two different ambient temperatures
and line loads equal to the line ratings are assumed. The
sensitivity to the wind speed changes is calculated for small

Line rating

600

500
400

400
300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Time
Fig. 6. Daily curve of the overhead line rating in winter (ACSR 240)

V. THE COMPARISON OF TRADITIONALLY AND STATISTICALLY

CALCULATED LINE RATING

The overhead line ratings using different calculations

methods are shown in Fig. 7. Arbitrarly taken values of the
ambient temperature, the wind speed and direction as well as
the solar heating are used for the traditionally calculated
seasonLal ratinlg (linle 1 alnd 2 iln Fig. 7). The values of 30C,
0.5 1m/s perpenldicular, 1000 W/lm2 are used for the sumnmer
ratinlg in the presented examuple. The seasoneal ratinrg
aXpplicationL is usually 'safe'! but it conlsiderably restricts the
real load capacity of the overhead linle, For the traditionlalXly
calculated dynramic linre ratinlg, as a funlctionl of ambienlt
temperature similar values of the wilnd speed alnd directionl anld
the solar heatinLg are takenl (curve 3 inl Fig. 7). The dynlamic

wind

speeds (about 0.5

s-

0.6

m/s) and small changes (less

then 0.1 mIs). As the results show the conductor temperature

is much more sensitive to the changing conditions at the lower

ambient temperature. The resulting conductor temperature

increase is presented in Table V.

TABLE IV

CONDUCTOR TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY ABOUT LOAD AND WEATHER

CONDITIONS CHANGES (ACSR)

A9AL

A9AL

0.08
0.05

0.83
0.36

Ambient, Rating
ImA

9A=10 C IR=I049A
dA=30 C JR=723A

I/e

A9AV
K/mis
-33.0
19.0

A9A
K!

-0.14

0.08

The overhead lilne sags inlcrease is the most danLgerous

effect ofthe conlductor temnperature exceedinlgif the conlductor
telmperature is limnited by the minim;tal permnissible distanlce
from the earth surface alnd the crossed objects (the most
commonl case)l. The sag ilncrease is about 4 6 cmlKE in
tranlsmissionl linles (400 1kV) with typical spanls. If the spanls
are extremely lontg (i.e. inl the mounLtainls, crossinlg rivers, etc.)

C Copyright KTH 2006

9th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems

KTH, Stockholm, Sweden - June 11-15, 2006

it can be much higher. The sag increase corresponding with

the conductor temperature exceeding (see Table V) is
presented in Table VI. As the results show the very small
wind speed and direction changes can cause the significant
sag increase.

TABLE V
CONDUCTOR TEMPERATURE EXCEEDING CAUSED BY SMALL LINE OVERLOAD
OR WEATHER CONDITIONS CHANGES (ACSR)

Wined

Wind

speed

Wind

ion
direction

Eine load

90

IR
1.05IR

misc,
0.6
0.5

A= I C =I1 049A
9A-C,

I__

45

9,=30 C IR=723A

Temperature
excedng
I exceedinrg
K
0.0
4.0
8.3

1.1II

I IR

Fie load

IR

1 05IR

1,IIR
IR

10.0

105IR

1.05IR

14.7
1_

l.l1/R 19.8

9.8 IR ._I_

Temperature
exceeding
K
0.0
1.8
3.6
5.6
7.6

[1]

"Thermal

rating of lines in real-time and their application in optimizing power

[5]
[6]

flow CIGRE Session 22-304, 2000

D.A. Douglass, A.A. Edris, "Real Time Monitoring and. Dynamic
Thermal Rating of Power Transmission Circuits" IEEE Transactions on
Power Delivery Vol. 1 No.3 July 1996 pp. 1407-1418.
D.A. Douglass A.A. Edris "Field Studies of Dynamic Thermal Rating
Methods for Overhead Lines" IEEE T&D Conference Paper 99TD108,
April 15, 1999, New Orleans, USA.

TABLE VI

SMALL LINE OVERLOAD OR WEATHER CONDITIONS CHANGES (ACSR)

A=10 C I1R=049A
speed |direction
dietoWinedoa
ecedig
Line load excedig
|speed
m/s
0.6

90

0.5

45

IR

1.05IR
I
I1.1I

IR
|

1.05IR

-I "R

cm
0.0
16 24
33 50
|40 60
59 88
79

119

A-=30 C, IR=723A

Fiela
Line
load

IR

R05IR

.lIR
R

1.05IR
1 .l1R

Sag

exceeding
cm

0.0
7 11
14 22
22 34
30 46
39

22.12

August 2002.
[2] "Survey on future use of conductors" CIGRE SC22 TF 12-1 1998
[3] G. Biedenbach, H.L.M. Boot, A.H. Wey, F.H. Wild, "Overhead line
local and distributed conductor temperature measurement techniques7
imodels and experience at TZH". CIGRE Session 22-205, 2002
[4] R. Stephen, "Description of state of the art methods to determine thermal

SAG INCREASING IN TRANSMISSION LINE WITH TYPICAL SPANS CAUSED BY

Wi

VII. REFERENCES
behavior of overhead conductors" CIGRE 207 WG

59

VI. CONCLUSIONS
Nowadays most of utilities use the traditionally calculated
line rating. It is the seasonal or more and more often dynamic
rating calculated as a function of the ambient temperature. As

the presented analyses show, the overhead line ampacity

calculated using the real risk evaluation has different values in
comparison with the traditional methods. The ampacity for the
lower ambient temperature is set usually too high (too high
actual sustained risk of the conductor temperature limit
exceeding) while the ampacity for higher ambient temperature
is set too low (not fully utilized load capacity of the line). The
incorrectly calculated line rating can cause the significant
conductor temperature and the sag increasing. The conductor
temperature is very sensitive to the small wind speed and
direction changes, especially at the lower ambient
temperature.

C Copyright KTH 2006

VIII. BIOGRAPHY

Edward Siwy was bom in Piekary SI., Poland, on

January 17, 1963. He obtained his M.Sc. and
Ph.D. degree from the Silesian University of

Technology in 1987 and 1997, respectively.

He is presently working at Faculty of Electrical

Engineering,

Institute of Power Systems

Engineering and Control. His research interests
include transmission and distribution
mainly
networks optimization.