Escolar Documentos
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Cultura Documentos
Bob Hughes
Program Manager
IBM CIO
Sept, 2002
IBM Confidential
< 2yrs
2-5 yrs
Innovator's
Innovator's
Curve
Curve
Business
Impact
"The Bubble"
Enterprise
Instant
Messaging
PDA Phones
Adoption
Adoption
Curve
Curve
Wireless
Web/WAP
Wireless LANs
Bluetooth
Technology
Trigger
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
VOIP
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Time, Maturity
IBM Confidential
Proprietary OSes
Open OSes
App-specific UIs
Standard GUIs
3270 terminal
PCs
Mainframe
Client/Server
CS/TDM
IP Telephony
Hdwr-specific sftwr
Open software
Proprietary features
Standard GUIs
TDM phones
Intelligent endpoints
0.3
0.25
0.2
Cost
Per
Minute
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1996
Applied Research
Technologies
1997
1998
Domestic US
1999
2000
Trans Europe
2001
US to UK
2002
2004
Trans AP
2004
2005
SW Threshold
IBM Confidential
IP Transport (plumbing)
Integrate
Advanced
Business
Communications
Applications
SIP Protocol
Base
time
IP Transport
1. Toll bypass (WAN)
Gateways to TDM
Gateways to PSTN
IVPN or Power9
2. Local (LAN)
IP telephones
IP softphones
SIP Protocol
Applications
Servers
Call Management
Proxy
Redirection
Directory
Clients
Presence
Follow-Me
Multi-casting
Instant Messaging
Etc.
SIP phones
SIP softphones
MS Messenger
External Services
C
ostp
erS
tation
600
400
200
TDM
IP
0
500
1000
3000
1000
1000
800
800
TDM Local
TDM SDC
IP Local
IP SDC
600
400
200
0
2Sites
6 Sites
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
Cost per
minute
Note:
This data covers services offered
by carriers, not IP transport over
converged corporate networks
IDC #26354
Jan 2002
Cost per
phone
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
US $
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
With declining cost per unit for VoIP in both the WAN and
LAN, the mix of IP to circuit switched/TDM technology will
shift in favor of IP.
World Wide Migration WAN
Voice Minutes: Cross Border
Circuit Switched
IP
Total
150000
100000
50000
Circuit Switched
In-Stat/MDR
LAN Telephony:
A Billion Dollar Market
IP
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
2001
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1006
Minutes (Million)
200000
1995
StationsShip
p
ed
(000)
250000
Total
10
11
Cost
Per
Minute
Time
12
Time
13
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ap
ps
ne sg
o
h lM
tp
a
f
So Loc
c
Re
tes
i
r S BX
e
P
mb IP
u
N ith
W
tes
i
r S AN
e
b
m IP W
u
N n
O
V
X
M
L
Se
lf
pr
So ovi
ftp sio
ho nin
ne g
Co
Li
nv
te
er
ge
d
do
c
Benefit
Infrastructure
Penetration
14
Easy to calculate
Easy to implement
Drive vendors for
lower costs
Productivity
Enhancement
Difficult to measure
Difficult to quantify
Increased
Revenue
Business
Case
15
IBM Confidential
16
IBM Confidential
17
Applications
Same Time
Calendar
App 2
App 3
Unified Messaging
Smart Audio Conf
App N
CRM
Many Others
Abstraction
Layer
Application
Interface
Service
Call Control
Signaling
Transport, Switching
And Routing
Power9
End Points
Phones
Softphones
DSL
Ethernet
IVPN
QoS
Cell Phones
PDA
Wireless GW
App 1
Softphone Lite
Video
18
19
IBM Confidential
In Prod
AP Inter-site
18 sites
up to 50% of
traffic
June Pilot
U.S. Power9 WAN
Cisco gateways
5 sites
June Prod
June Pilot
India site-to-site
2 site pilot
8 sites if successful
In Prod
Singapore Sales & Svc
Cisco AVVID
1,000 phones
20
21