MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH

August 2009
China Transportation Chartbook

Chinese Airlines – The “Early Bird” For Recovery

China Air Passenger Traffic China Air Freight Traffic

30%
40%
25%

20% 30%

15% 20%
YoY Chg (%0

10%

YoY Chg (%0

10%
5%
0%
0%
-10%
-5%

-10% -20%

-15% -30%

-20% -40%
Jan-07

Apr-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jan-07

Apr-07

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-08

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-09
Jul-07

Jul-08
RPK Passenger Carried RFTK Cargo Carried

Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research

• Healthy GDP growth at 6.1-7.9% in 1Q-2Q09 should support resilient domestic aviation demand.
• Low base effect from 2008 caused by a number of one-off events – snow storms, Sichuan earthquake, Beijing Olympics, and financial
crisis.
• Significant government support through stimulus package, which accelerated recovery process.

Edward Xu, (852) 2239-1521, edward.xu@morganstanley.com 4