CLIMATE CHANGE

AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC

 CLIMATE CHANGE
– AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC
 CLIMATE CHANGE
– AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC
Editors: Lars Thostrup and Rasmus Ole Rasmussen
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC

© 1st edtition 2009: NORA

Cover and Illustrations: Ole Wich

Maps and Figures: Mélodie Martin and Johanna Roto
Proofreading: MLR Services
Layout: Vasti/estra
Printing: Vasti/estra

ISBN : 978-99918-3-293-7

www.nora.fo
FOREWORD
Situated in the North Atlantic, the NORA Region
plays a strategic role in the ongoing debate
on climate change. Encompassing Greenland,
Iceland, the Faroe Islands and coastal Norway,
the NORA Region is clearly an integrated part
of the Nordic region. Given the harsh climate
and a geography dominated by sparsely
populated coastal communities, it is, however,
equally a region with clear challenges that
differ from other parts of the Nordic region.
This is especially true with regard to the new
challenges brought about by a changing
climate.
Therefore, in an effort to introduce light and
shade into the ongoing climate debate from its
unique geographical perspective, NORA wishes
to introduce this book in conjunction with
COP15 – the United Nations Climate Change
Conference in Copenhagen, December 2009.
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC
is not intended to paint an alarmist picture.
The North Atlantic region has in the past been
met with challenges that are comparable to
the present changes, and has coped with these
challenges. In many situations, these challenges
led to marked changes in the way of life of the
peoples in the region. At times, remarkable
innovation was shown, while other situations
led to drastic measures and sudden actions
that were not always the wisest. Therefore, this
Foreword
book dares to discuss the risks, as well as the
opportunities, that a changing climate will bring
to our region in the future.
It is the hope of NORA that this book, by
compiling extensive research findings into one
concentrated overview, will be a useful tool
for those who would like to gain more insight
into the variety of North Atlantic perspectives
on climate change, not only with regard to the
current discussions taking place during the
COP15, but also for future reference as well.
The first chapter seeks to give the reader an
overview of the content and conclusions
presented in the book, while subsequent
chapters go into more depth outlining the
consequences of climate change in relation
to the sea, the land, the population, the living
resources, transport and geopolitics. The last
chapter on local responses explores the options
for unique North Atlantic responses to the
challenge of climate change. Each chapter is
followed by a shorter case study providing
a more concrete illustration of the main
observations advanced in each chapter.
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC
is published with economic support from the
Nordic Council of Ministers and it has been
edited in collaboration with Nordregio. The
book is based on the extensive work carried
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC 5
out by researchers and scientists from within
and outside the NORA Region. NORA is deeply
grateful that Nordregio, as the key Nordic
research institution addressing the theme of this
book, has taken a leading role and responsibility
for the selection of the scientific sources used
in the preparation of the book and for ensuring
that all contributors and references have been
duly credited.

20th November, 2009

Sisimiut, Greenland / Tórshavn, Faroe Islands

Jørn Hansen Lars Thostrup

Chairman, NORA Director, NORA

6 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC Foreword

CONTENTS
Chapter 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Chapter 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LIVING RESOURCES
The Norse Settlers: Adapting to Climate Change Sami Reindeer Industry Challenged by the Climate
through the Centuries

Chapter 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Chapter 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND TRANSPORT
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE SEA Effects of climate and weather on tourism
Greenlandic Towns Respond to Change Cruise tourism – a boon or a menace?
The Lofoten Fisheries: Cod on the Move

Chapter 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
Chapter 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE LAND Climate Will Change North Atlantic Fisheries
Crop Growing in the Faroe Islands: 90 Years of
Adaptation
The new winners? Chapter 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118

CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LOCAL RESPONSE

Chapter 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Wetlands Restoration as Climate Impact Mitigation

CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE POPULATION

Faroese Towns Respond to Change NORA and NORDREGIO . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

CONTENTS CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC 7

 CHAPTER 1
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC

· The present discussion about the impacts of
climate change in the North is often one-
dimensional, identifying very simple cause-
effect relationships and pointing to a unique
situation.
· Some of the most important challenges
facing the North Atlantic Region today are
only indirectly related to what is happening
with the environment and generated
through climate changes.

· However, climate change is multi-dimen- · The appearance and disappearance of the

sional, and no simple relationships exist.
· The North Atlantic Region has experienced
change before, and will face new changes in
the future.
Norse Settlers in Greenland illustrate how
the people of the North Atlantic region have
been adapting to climate change through the
centuries.

· When met with challenges comparable to

the present situation, the North Atlantic
Region has proved capable of coping with
the challenges. In many situations, it led to
marked changes in the way life was lived,
sometimes remarkably innovative, other
times leading to drastic measures.

Chapter 1 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC 9

M ost public discussions on climate change –
and the potential ecological and econom-
ic impacts this may have - focus on the ongoing
build-up of industrial greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere and a gradual increase in global
temperatures.
In these discussions, the trends and tendencies
are often supported by empirical findings
from different sources, such as time series
of temperature measurements and ice core
and sediment studies. The conclusions often
emphasize that present developments are
moving towards an unprecedented situation
that is a challenge to the world’s population.
The tendency to focus one-dimensional
explanations tend ro ignore other important
mechanisms and potentially disruptive climate
scenarios. These mechanisms may work
independently, or they may enhance or limit the
impact of changes in climate. At the same time,
the current debate tends to ignore historical and
pre-historical evidence demonstrating that the
earth’s climate repeatedly has shifted abruptly
and dramatically and that it is capable of doing
so in the future. Another fact that is often
overlooked is that these climate shifts do not
necessarily have universal, global effects.
Similarly, the discussions tend to ignore that
populations throughout the existence of
the human species on the globe often have
managed to cope with change and through
ingenuity and insight adjusted to the new
situations. Thus, it is clear that climate change
developments are multi-dimensional and that
simple relationships are rare or non-existent.
10 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC Chapter 1
Several natural processes are working in
parallel, sometimes enhancing and sometimes
counteracting each other. While one process
may be predictable, the interaction between
different processes usually is unpredictable. Plus,
the multitude of possible human actions and
responses adds to the complexity.
With regard to the North Atlantic Region,
another fact should be emphasized. The
region is in many ways in a marginal position,
influenced by counteracting drivers stemming
from the atmosphere and the sea, with
exploitation of the natural resources being
“at the edge”. This marginality has resulted in
a situation where the region has experienced
changes before, and will face new changes in
the future.
The North Atlantic Region in the past has faced
challenges that have been comparable to the
present situation, and it has coped with these
challenges. In many situations, it led to marked
changes in the way life was lived, sometimes
prompting remarkable innovation, and at other
times leading to drastic measures and sudden
actions.
What is often forgotten in the discussions is
another fact that characterizes the situation
today, namely that some of the most important
challenges facing the North Atlantic Region
today are only vaguely related to what happens
with the environment, whether generated
by climate change or not. The impact of
globalization, the declining dependency
on renewable resources and the increasing
importance of services and knowledge as
the key drivers in the economy are causing a
shift from natural resource to human resource
dependency.
As an illustration of the long-term variation of
climate and the historical interdependency of
settlement structure and the environment, the
first case study looks into the development of the
settlement structure in the North Atlantic Region
during the last millennium, with a focus on the
appearance and disappearance of the Norse in
Greenland as an illustration of the vulnerability of
the system.
Climate change – and the sea
The overall global temperature increase is
clearly indicated through the thinning of the ice
in the Arctic Ocean, as well as the substantial
melting of the inland ice in Greenland, leading
to a substantial outflow of freshwater into the
North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean. Parallel to this,
other consequences of the changes occurring
today are obvious in the North Atlantic, such as
more frequent storms and other measures of
unstable weather, changes in the air and ocean
temperatures, etc. What is often forgotten in
the discussion, however, is the fact that a global
increase in temperature is not the only decisive
mechanism for the North Atlantic Region.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been
recognized as one of the most important factors
impacting both weather conditions and the
thermal characteristics of the sea. With different
periodicies, the NAO has been responsible
for some of the most marked changes in sea
temperature that have been registered in the
Chapter 1
region during the last centuries. The changes
have very often been induced within a relatively
short period of time, and experienced by the
population as sudden shifts in the environment.
The duration of these shifts has been a few to
several decades.
This has led to not only shifts in temperature
regimes, but also more importantly to
remarkable shifts in the fish stocks and the
potential for agricultural production. With
societies totally dependent on agriculture and
fisheries, the changes have been decisive for the
local economic and social development in the
North Atlantic Region.
Another factor with impacts lasting centuries is
the Thermo-Haline Conveyer Belt, probably the
most important long-term factor determining
the character of the sea – and thereby also the
local climate – in the North Atlantic Region. The
conveyer belt is responsible for the distribution
of heat around the world, transporting cold
water away from the Polar region, and bringing
warm water from the Equatorial region to
the north, with the opening and closing of
the conveyer belt being responsible for the
fluctuations between ice ages and the warmer
periods in history.
One of the most important drivers in this
connection is the melting of ice and the
generation of considerable amounts of
freshwater in the Arctic and the North Atlantic.
A reduction in the relative salt content and the
concomitant increase in temperature takes away
one of the most important factors responsible
for maintaining the Thermo-Haline Conveyer
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC 11
Belt. This may lead to the conveyor belt
phenomenon stopping and thereby bringing
to a halt the most important mechanism taking
away cold water and bringing warmer water into
the region. Present indications of changes tend
to indicate that such an event might happen in
the very near future.
The future climate of the region is not a one-
dimensional process of change, and the
interaction between the three mechanisms
outlined above will be decisive for the future
of the North Atlantic Region. The interaction
of these three mechanisms might very well
generate a counterintuitive scenario: Even as the
Expanding agriculture production is a welcome development in Greenland. Photo : ARC-PIC .COM
12 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC Chapter 1
earth as a whole continues to warm gradually,
large regions may experience a precipitous and
disruptive shift into dramatically colder climates.
In the first case study, the shift from dependency on
seals to cod, and from cod to shrimp, in Greenland
illustrates the consequences of the marked
changes in sea temperature for the region. The
case at the same time illustrates the differences
in community approaches to such changes. The
second case looks into the fluctuations in the cod
fisheries and the changes in spawning and feeding
patterns of the cod stock at Lofoten, Norway,
illustrating the direct role of fluctuations in sea
temperature on fisheries.
Climate change - and the land
Two main environmental factors on land
are impacted by changes in climate: the
composition and potential for vegetation, and
soil composition, especially the permafrost.
Vegetation characteristics are important for
the potential land use in the region, as human
exploitation depends on which types of plants
are available, as well as the type of animals that
can live in the region. Changes in temperature
lead to new species entering into the region
while others disappear because invasive species
may be more competitive. Changes in the
environment, e.g., increased temperature and
CO2 levels, also impact the productivity of the
vegetation. Similarly, higher temperatures tend
to increase the release of nutrients from the soil.
These changes may be perceived as a positive
situation because of the new opportunities
available. On the other hand, such changes may
also be viewed as a menace because the invasive
species may take over and change ecosystems
that used to be characterized by high diversity
into mono-species conditions.
With regard to the soil, the thawing of the
permafrost is important because it impacts
infrastructure development by creating
instability. Similarly, the level of the permafrost
can be decisive in connection with erosion and
thereby changes in the landscape structure.
Changes in the overall climate influence changes
in the permafrost.
In addition to air temperature, a number of
other processes are important, several of them
Chapter 1
influenced by human interaction. Human
activities increase the speed and direction of
change.
An important issue in connection with both
sets of changes – vegetation and permafrost
– is the impact that the changes have on the
overall process of climate change. Changes in
vegetation and especially change in permafrost
leads to release of gases – primarily CO2 and
methane. The levels of release may be of such
magnitude that they are recognized as severely
exacerbating the ongoing global changes.
As an illustration of the role of climate in relation to
vegetation and soil, its role for the new “winners”
in connection with the expansion of agricultural
activities in Greenland is presented.
Climate change - and the
population
Most of the discussions regarding changes in
the North Atlantic Region are related to ongoing
changes in climate, and a consequence of
this is the tendency towards neglecting other
important factors of change in the region. These
factors are related not to the natural resources,
but rather to human resources, and thereby to
ongoing changes in the population structure.
The traditional renewable resource related
activities – hunting, fishing, agriculture, forestry
– as well as the extraction of non-renewable
resources through mining have historically been
decisive for the development of the region. As
a consequence, the settlement structure was
determined by the availability of the natural
resources. Present changes in the economy and
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC 13
globalization, however, have been restructuring
the fundamental situation in the region. As
populations grow and as local economies
become more dominated by the tertiary service
sector, the availability of human resources
becomes vital for continuing development.
As a consequence, settlement structure is
increasingly determined by the aspirations of
the population, especially the young.
The younger generation is focused on new types
of jobs in the service sector, and especially on
activities connected to the knowledge economy.
Differences in gender response to the new
challenges, with women to a greater extent
than men looking for new types of jobs and
new environments, seem to be one of the most
important challenges in the present situation.
As an illustration of the interaction between
changes in resources and population responses to
the changes, this case study reviews an example
from the Faroe Islands where the Faroese left
during a crisis in the fisheries, and returned when
conditions became better.
Climate change - and living
resources
The living resources have been the main basis
for human activity in the North Atlantic Region.
Today, they are still critical and certainly remain
influential with regard to future development in
the region.
For the fisheries, changes in the stocks are
determined by the primary production in
the sea, and this again depends on climate
14 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC
characteristics and sea temperatures. The impact
differs depending of the type of resource.
The pelagic fish living in the open water column
are highly mobile, and consequently are quite
responsive to change. They simply move to
more favourable locations. This used to be a
problem because smaller vessels were limited in
their effort radius, and, with the disappearance
of a specific resource, the economic base of a
community could vanish, sometimes overnight.
With modern fishing equipment, however, this
is no longer a problem of the same magnitude.
Instead, the risk of over-fishing has become a
real challenge for fisheries management.
The demersal fish living on or near the bottom
of the sea tend to be slower to respond to
change. Slow changes in the sea temperature
may trigger the stock to move from one set
of spawning and/or feeding areas to another.
Fisheries dependent communities might be
able to adjust to these changes, tracking the
fish as they migrate to new locations. However,
a much more severe situation appears in the
case of sudden changes in temperature, often in
combination with intensive human exploitation
of the resource. This has been experienced
as “crashes” of the stock, and the sudden
disappearance of the natural resource basis for
the fisheries.
On land, changes are very much related to land
use practices, as land use practices are based on
a specific situation with a balance between the
environment and the activity. Ongoing changes
impact which crops can be grown, and what
kinds of pests will influence crop production.
Moreover, climate change brings about changes
Chapter 1
in storm patterns and precipitation, which
again influences crop production and the
need to adapt traditional drainage systems
and tilling practices. So when environmental
factors change, the land use practices need to
be adjusted accordingly, by developing new
tilling practices, new crops, and inventing or
applying new technologies. Such adjustments,
however, take time and depend very much on
the capabilities of individual communities.
Human activity on land and sea are not,
however, environmentally neutral. Such
activities are actually important contributors
to ongoing changes in the climate. Land-based
activities such as crop production, land use
management and tilling practices all generate
greenhouse gases, especially when climate
preservation factors such as water or permafrost
are disturbed through these activities. The
fisheries, especially the large-scale fisheries,
also contribute to the release of greenhouse
gases because of the high levels of energy
consumption.
As an illustration of the interaction between land-
based activities and climate change, the selected
case shows how reindeer herding is challenged by
different climate components.
Climate change - and transport
One of the most debated perspectives
regarding the ongoing changes in climate is
the melting of ice in the Arctic, which opens
up new opportunities in Northern areas. While
permanent or temporal ice cover has made
both land and sea more or less inaccessible, the
Chapter 1
reduction in the ice cap opens up easier access
to new resources.
Similarly, the reduction in the ice cover will
result in marked changes in the global transport
structures because new sea routes will open
up through the Arctic Ocean. In addition, the
potential for new land-based transport by
means of railways has been pointed out as a
new opportunity.
Besides increasing accessibility, these changes
also present opportunities for new economic
activities. One of the suggested activities has
been the establishment of transshipment
harbours, invigorating a region that is suffering
from a lack of other job alternatives. Another
opening for new activities relates to tourism,
both on land and on sea.
As an illustration of these new options, two
tourism-related cases show not only the positive
perspectives, but also some of the problems these
activities may generate. One of the cases looks into
the expansion of tourism in Northern Norway that
might generate new possibilities, but also might
bring about new challenges due to changes from a
single to a more mass-tourism reality that is more
demanding in relation to infrastructure. The other
case focuses on cruise tourism, pointing to the
potentials of new opportunities for remote areas,
but at the same time creating challenges due to
the high-impact factor in sensitive regions.
Climate change - and geopolitics
Increased activity and the potential for new
opportunities in the North Atlantic and espe-
cially in the Arctic region are geopolitically
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC 15
sensitive, raising a series of questions that
need to be resolved internationally. These
questions include, for example: Who owns the
new resources? Who should have access? How
should access be controlled, and by whom? How
should the indirect impact on living resources
– for instance, new fisheries that may take away
predation sources for marine mammals – be
regulated, and by whom?
A number of international regulations and
institutions have been established, for
instance, the Arctic Council, and the United
Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
The convention might very well serve as a
framework for resolving future disputes in the
region. This particular use of the convention, as
well as the actions of the Arctic Council, have
been contested, and the question remains
as to whether these current institutional
frameworks will be sufficient to address the
rather perplexing issues at hand or if they will be
accepted by all the potential stakeholders.
As an illustration of the character of the problems
that access to fish resources in the North Atlantic
and Arctic Ocean generate, a case was selected
that attempts to explore the content of the dispute,
and what might be needed in order to resolve the
disputes.
Climate change - and local response
As discussed in the section on geopolitics,
the challenges of ongoing changes in the
climate are impacting the future of life in the
North Atlantic, just as activities in the region
are generating consequences outside the
region. Response to the challenges, therefore,
16 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC Chapter 1
requires prompt action. The establishment of
preventative measures against the possible
negative impacts of climate change requires the
evaluation of such measures not only nationally,
but also regionally and, most especially, locally.
Co-operation among the Nordic countries is
critical. The challenges of ongoing changes
in the climate generated by human activity
also need to be addressed. The requisite steps
to mitigate the accelerating impact of human
activity on the environment must also be taken.
Several initiatives have been initiated, providing
a starting point for further activities, but it is
also necessary to position the North Atlantic
Region in an international setting. This involves
co-operation with neighbouring areas, as well
as with the EU. The EU has recently shown a
growing interest in the North Atlantic Region
and in the Arctic. Some of the common
concerns expressed are important issues in
connection with developing strategies for joint
activities.
As an example of a local initiative related to
reducing the generation of greenhouse gases and
expanding the carbon sink, the case study explores
changes in land-use patterns in Iceland.
Østerbygd The Norse Settlers:
Vesterbygd Adapting to Climate Change
Faroe
Iceland Islands
through the Centuries
During the 9th and 10th centuries AD, Norse
settlers spread northward. They brought with
them a mixed agriculture, balancing crop
production and herding of various domesticated
animals. They also relied on a variety of local
wild resources, such as fish, seabirds, caribou,
marine mammals, plants, wood, etc.
The reasons for heading north were a
combination of population pressures and
political unrest in the Norse homeland. This led
to the search for places where their old customs
and freedoms were not so threatened, and
where their traditional breadwinning methods
and lifestyles could be maintained.
Overpopulated Iceland
Around 650 AD, the first Norse settled on
the Faroe Islands alongside the early Gaels,
bringing to the islands the Old Norse language,
which slowly evolved into the modern Faroese
language spoken today. These early Norse
settlers are not thought to have come directly
from Scandinavia, but rather from Shetland and
Orkney. Also Norse-Gael settlers came from
the areas surrounding the Irish Sea and the
Western Isles of Scotland. Later, according to
the Færeyinga Saga [Faroese Saga], a wave of
emigrants left Norway and settled in the islands
about the end of the 9th century.
The Norse Settlers: Adapting 7 Climate
Historically, Iceland was discovered by the Norse
in 860 AD and began to be settled by 874. It was
fully occupied by 930 AD. Recent archeological
findings, however, suggest an even earlier
settlement. As the occupation of Iceland was so
rapid, the island soon experienced the pressures
of overpopulation. By 975 AD a major famine
struck, leading to both internal political unrest
and a struggle over scare resources. This led to
a renewed interest in exploration and the quest
for new land for expansion.
Possibilities of new land to the west could
have been fed by earlier Irish voyagers who
had traveled extensively in the North Atlantic
Region and are supposed to have established
temporary settlements in both Iceland and the
Faroe Islands. Whatever the sources, however,
the search for new land resources led to the
discovery of Greenland in 982 AD by Erik, the
Red. Due to the high pressure on land at home,
some three years later a major colonizing
expedition of several hundred people was
organized in Iceland and sailed off to Greenland.
It has been suggested that the name
“Greenland” was given to the new place in order
to attract more people. Another explanation
may be the fact that the pristine vegetation in
South Greenland would have looked much more
attractive than the eroded areas back in Iceland.
Chapterto
ClimateChange
changethrough the Centuries
– and Transportation 17
Eventually, around 300 farmsteads were year
2000 Greenland Self Government (2009)
Greenland Home Rulse (1979)
established in southeast Greenland – Østerbygd Change from hunting towards
1900

became the first and most heavily populated fisheries in Greenland (1900)

region with about 3,000 - 4,500 people. Because 1800

Danish monopoly on Greenland (1783)

of more favorable conditions in that area, the 1700

Hans Egede settled on Greenland in
his search for the Norse (1721)

settlement survived into the 1400s. Later on 1600

Commercial whale hunting around
Greenland (1620)

followed Vesterbygd, situated further north.

Even though the settlement was closer to 1500

Abandoning “Østerbygd” (1440)

northern hunting grounds and had a promising 1400

beginning, it never had a population greater

Abandoning “Vesterbygd” (1350)

1300

than 1,000 - 1,500. In fact, it was the first of the

two areas to experience a decline, eventually
1200

leading to its disappearance around 1350 AD. 1100

New horizons
1000 Norse visiting “Vinland” (986)
Norse settlement on Greenland (982)
Major famine on Iceland (975)

900 Thule culture in Greenland (900)

Greenland was not a final destination in the Norse settled on Iceland (874)

search for new land. According to the sagas, a 800

Dorset culture on Greenland (790)

merchant-shipowner was making his way from 700

Iceland to Greenland in 986 AD when he was First Norse settlement on Faroe Islands (650)

600

blown off course by a severe storm. When the

storm ended, he found himself off an unfamiliar 500
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 C

shore, and he headed back to Greenland and

told about the new possibilities he encountered. Figure : Relative temperature change in the North Atlantic
Leif, the son of Eirk, the Red, decided to retrace region during the last 2000 years. Blue colour intensity
the route. He passed a land of rock and ice indicates low temperature range while red colour intensity
– probably Baffin Island – which he called indicates periods with a warmer climate. Many important
Helluland. Eventually, he came to a country that events in the North Atlantic region have coincided with
was flat and wooded, and he called it Markland either warming or cooling periods. The long period of
– probably part of southern Labrador. He finally cooling from around 1300 to around 1800, and especially
made landfall at a place the sagas describe as a from 1600 to 1700 is often referred to as the ”Little Ice Age”.
land resplendent with grassy meadows, rivers
full of salmon, and enough other resources to
encourage overwintering. Leif named this land,
Vinland, and they established a small settlement
at the place that centuries later is called l’Anse
aux Meadows on the northernmost tip of
Newfoundland. However, Norse Greenlanders

18 The Norse Settlers: Adapting to Climate Change through the Centuries

may have seen little immediate benefit in ex-
pending any effort in Vinland, so the settlement
soon disappeared.
The people of Iceland and Greenland supported
themselves through livestock farming and
trading. Fishing supplemented the diet, and, in
the case of Greenland, hunting was important.
The region was not suited to growing grain, so
the raising of sheep and goats dominated the
agricultural economy. Advanced systems of
herding and tillage – for instance, sæterdrift and
irrigation in Greenland – were developed.
Vulnerable and fragile landscapes, coupled with
the influx of substantial numbers of people into
Iceland and Greenland, led to environmental
degradation. Trees were felled to heat homes
and smelt iron; turf was stripped from the
thin soil. In Iceland, there are indications of
substantial erosion destroying some of the more
fertile areas even during the first 100 years of
settlement.
Little Ice Age
Other challenges appeared from time to time
due to variations in climate. A real challenge
came after 1250 AD, when a period of climatic
cooling known as the “Little Ice Age” began. This
mini ice age resulted in a general deterioration
of the agricultural economy of the region. The
settlements in Greenland had resisted cooling
periods before, e.g., the cooling experienced
around 1150 AD, but the combination of
environmental stress, problems in maintaining
the trade contact back to Iceland and Norway –
and the long-term changes in climate may have
contributed to the decline.
The Norse Settlers: Adapting
Greenland was a fragile colony, incapable of
sustaining itself as climatic, economic, and
political conditions deteriorated. Because
these Norse adventurers were deprived of their
land bases in Greenland, and given the lack of
material means and incentives for any further
development, Greenland would mark the
practical limit of medieval Europe’s extension
into the North Atlantic and beyond.
Medieval and early modern mixed-agricultural
economies of the North provide examples
of both long-term success in resource
management and some disastrous failures. The
extinction of the Norse agricultural colonies
in Greenland between 1350 and 1450 AD
was the result of several factors, including
climate change, Inuit contact, and political
and economic changes. However, soil erosion,
caused by several centuries of progressive
overgrazing, may have been the critical factor
in reducing the resilience of the farming
system, and thus its ability to cope with any
change whatsoever. Centuries of farming
activity around the farmsteads has, on the other
hand, resulted in creating advantageous soil
conditions for present day farming activity at
these sites.
Background and cited literature used in this
case story include Knud J.Krogh: Erik den Rødes
Grønland. Sagatekster ved Hans Bekker- Nielsen.
Nationalmuseet 1967 | NORSE – SILA, The
Greenland Research Centre at the National
Museum of Denmark | The Norse in the North
Atlantic. http://www.heritage.nf.ca/exploration/
norse.html
Chapter 7to Climate
ClimateChange
changethrough the Centuries 19
– and Transportation

CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE SEA
· The melting of the ice in the Arctic Ocean
is an indication of the ongoing changes in
climate. Some of the consequences of these
changes are already obvious in the North
Atlantic Region, such as more frequent
storms and other indicators of unstable
weather, including changes in air and ocean
temperatures, etc.
· However, the global increase in temperature
is not the only decisive mechanism
influencing the North Atlantic climate.
· The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been
recognized as one of the most important
factors impacting both weather conditions
and the characteristics of the sea, both
short and medium term. The NAO has been
responsible for marked changes in sea
temperature that has led to remarkable
shifts in fish stocks – and thus has played a
pivotal role in localized economic and social
development in the region.
· The Termo-Haline Conveyer Belt is probably
the most important medium and long-term
factor influencing the sea – and thereby
also the local climate – in the North Atlantic
Region. The Conveyer Belt is responsible for
the distribution of heat around the world,
CHAPTER 2
transporting cold water away from the Polar
region, and bringing warm water from the
equatorial region to the north.
· Fluctuations in the Conveyer Belt have been
responsible for the historical shifts between
ice ages and warmer periods. The melting
of the ice and the generation of significant
amounts of freshwater in the Arctic may lead
to a warming trend once again in the very
near future.
· The interaction of the three mechanisms of
warming temperatures, the North Atlantic
Oscillation and the Conveyer Belt will be
decisive for the future of the North Atlantic
Region.
· The role of marked changes in sea
temperature for the region is illustrated
through the shift in Greenland from a
dependency on seals to cod, and then from
cod to shrimp. The fluctuations in the cod
fisheries and the changes observed in the
spawning and feeding of the cod stock at
Lofoten in Norway is another illustration of
the role fluctuating sea temperatures play in
cod stock distribution.
Chapter 2 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE SEA 21
M ost of the discussions regarding the impact
of climate change seem to concentrate
on the consequences of the ongoing build up
of industrial greenhouse gases and a gradual
increase in global temperatures. However, the
climatic conditions of the North Atlantic Region
are impacted by two additional processes that
have repeatedly shifted abruptly and often
dramatically.
The two processes are 1) the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO), inducing relatively short-term
changes, and 2) the Termo-Haline Conveyer Belt
precipitating substantial changes on a much
longer scale. In both cases – but especially
in relation to the latter - the evidence shows
that the earth’s climate system has sensitive
thresholds. Pushed past a threshold, the system
can jump quickly from one stable operating
mode to a completely different one.
Scientists agree on the co-existence and
interaction between the three systems –
the climate change caused by the build up
of greenhouse gases, the North Atlantic
Oscillation and the Thermo-Haline Conveyor
Belt. However, they greatly disagree regarding
the relative importance – and the long-term
consequences – of these three systems. This
leaves the inhabitants and especially the
politicians to continuously reconsider the future
consequences for the region.
Greenhouse gases
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) declared that the evidence of a
warming trend is “unequivocal,” and that human
22 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE SEA Chapter 2
activity has “very likely” been the driving force in
that change over the last 50 years.
A previous report by the scientific panel had
found that humanity had “likely” played a role, so
the 2007 report presented an important change
in wording by emphasizing that the release of
carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases
from human activities had played a central role
in raising the average surface temperature of the
planet.
Since IPCC’s first report in 1990, assessed
projections have suggested global average
temperature increases between about 0.15°C
and 0.3°C per decade for 1990 to 2005. This fits
very well with the observed values of about
0.2°C per decade, and thereby strengthening
confidence in the near-term projections. Model
experiments show that even if all radiative
forcing agents were held constant at year 2000
levels, a further warming trend would occur in
the next two decades at a rate of about 0.1°C per
decade, due mainly to the slow response of the
oceans. About twice as much warming (0.2°C
per decade) would, however, be expected if
emissions continue.
Because gases like carbon dioxide and methane
allow sunlight to reach the earth, but prevent
some of the resulting heat from radiating back
out into space, this so-called “greenhouse effect”
has been functioning from the earliest days
of the planet. Without the greenhouse effect,
the planet would never have warmed enough
to allow life to form. However, as ever larger
amounts of carbon dioxide were released along
with the development of industrial economies,
the atmosphere has grown warmer at an
accelerating rate: Since 1970, temperatures have
gone up at nearly three times the average for
the entire 20th century.
The latest report from the climate panel predicts
that the global climate is likely to rise between 2
and 5° C, if the carbon dioxide concentration in
the atmosphere reaches twice the level of 1750.
By 2100, sea levels are likely to rise between 16
and 60 cm, and the changes now underway will
continue for centuries to come.
Need for regional strategies
The IPCC provides a global overview of climate
change impacts. It is, however, apparent that
national climate strategies require a focus
on local socio-economic and environmental
factors. Therefore, the attention on climate
impacts and adaptation is challenging as
well national Governments and regional
institutions. One of the most noticed changes
has been the reduction of the Arctic ice which
has been reduced so much that it has become
an un-debated issue, with its 2007 minimum
extension opening up the discussions regarding
future long-imagined Arctic shipping routes,
the Northwest Passage over Canada and the
Northern Sea Route over Russia.
Even though the trends are clear and accepted,
the scientists still have difficulties in predicting
the patterns and the implications of the climate
change. Complicating the picture – and thereby
contributing to the difficulties of prediction –
is, for instance, the observation that climatic
changes are as much a result of ice moving as
melting. Since 2000 winds and currents have
pushed huge amounts of thick old ice out of the
Arctic basin past Greenland. This has created
open waters with thin floes that now melt more
quickly than before.
The pace of change, however, has far exceeded
what had been estimated by almost all the
simulations used to envision how the Arctic
would respond to global warming. Climate
and ice experts disagree on as well processes,
directions and speed of change. The extreme
summer ice retreat revealed at least as much
about what remains unknown in the Arctic
as what is clear. Several scientists stress the
possibility that the system may be heading
towards a new, more watery state. What is
important to note is that human-caused global
warming is playing a significant role.
Other scientists say that the last warming period
in the region, peaking in the 1930s, mainly
affected areas near Greenland and Scandinavia,
while other parts of the Arctic were less affected.
Those scientists who have doubted the role of
human influence are convinced that the trend is
hard to ascribe to any other factor.
A third group of scientists point out that the
minimum extension of the ice in 2007 has not
been followed by further retreats during the
last two years, even though last winter’s freezes
started from a huge ice deficit.
Open Arctic waters could be a boon for
shipping, fishing and oil exploration (see chapter
6). However, an annual seesawing between
ice and no ice seems to be a particularly harsh
Chapter 2 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE SEA 23
jolt to polar bears who depend on the ice to
travel long distances in search of seals. Many
researchers have warned that it is still far too
soon to start sending container ships across the
Polar Sea because natural variations could turn
around and counteract the greenhouse effect
and stabilize the ice for a time.
While experts debate details, many agree
that the vanishing act of the sea ice last year
was probably caused by superimposed forces
including heat-trapping clouds and water vapor
in the air, as well as the ocean-heating influence
of unusually sunny skies in June and July. Other
important factors have been warm winds
flowing from Siberia around a high-pressure
system parked over the ocean. The winds not
only melt thin ice, but also push floes offshore
where currents and winds could push them out
of the Arctic Ocean. Still others mention that the
level of heating might have been influenced by
unusually sunny skies in June and July.
Yet another factor has probably been involved,
namely the periodic flip in wind and pressure
patterns over the Arctic Ocean, called the
Arctic Oscillation, that has tended to stop ice
from drifting in a gyre for years so that it could
thicken, and instead carries the ice out into the
North Atlantic. Previous measurements show
that the proportion of thick, durable floes that
were at least 10 years old recently dropped to
2% from a situation with 80% only 20 years ago.
Still another issue may impact the development
of ice. Greenland’s melting ice may have a
significant effect on sea level rise and on ocean
circulation. As a consequence, the circulation
24 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE SEA Chapter 2
may shift by 2100. Greenland ice has been
melting at a rate of about 7% per year over the
last few years. The most recent study examined
the rate of melting ice, both on the surface
and far beneath it, as well as the acceleration
of masses of ice falling into the sea. The report
found that from 2006 to 2008 enough ice
returned to the seas to raise their levels by 0.75
mm.
However, the oceans will not rise uniformly as
the world warms. Scientists point out that ocean
dynamics will push water in certain directions,
so some locations will experience sea level rise
that is greater than the global average. Some
studies have pointed out that, if Greenland’s
ice melt rate were to continue its 7% increase
per year, the increased drain of freshwater into
the North Atlantic would change the oceanic
circulation of warm water pumping into the
Arctic. This would, in turn, lead to a recovery of
Arctic sea ice – and, in a worst-case scenario,
lead to a new ice age.
North Atlantic Oscillation
The climate around the North Atlantic Ocean
shows considerable variability year-on-year and
from one century to the next. This variability
is seen as fluctuations in ocean and land
temperatures, rainfall and surface pressure,
and impacts on the marine and terrestrial
ecosystems, as well as on society. A key
element in this connection is the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO).
The NAO can be described as a large-scale
seesaw in atmospheric mass between the
subtropical high and the polar low. The
 North Atlantic Oscillation
L Wet
More storms
Dry
H
Positive NAO Index
Figure 1: The effects of NAO: To the right the negative NAO index and to the left the positive NAO index.
corresponding NAO index varies from year to
year, but also exhibits a tendency to remain in
one phase for intervals lasting several years.
The NAO index is defined as the anomalous
difference between the polar low and the
subtropical high during the winter season
(December through March). When the NAO
swings from one phase to another, it generates
changes in the mean wind speed and direction
over the Atlantic Ocean. This is illustrated in
Figure 1. This oscillation is decisive for the
transport of heat and moisture between
the Atlantic Ocean and the neighbouring
continents. As a consequence, the NAO is a
major driver of the weather, including the
intensity and number of storms and their paths
Dry
L
Few
er s
torm Wet
© Nordregio & NLS Finland for administrative boundaries
s
H
Negative NAO Index
in the region. Scientists have shown that over
the last few decades there has emerged a
pattern of long, irregular amplification of the
oscillation towards one extreme phase during
winter. This is important because the pattern
generates a wide range of effects on North
Atlantic ecosystems.
When the NAO is positive (Figure 1, left),
low-pressure anomalies over the Icelandic
region and throughout the Arctic combine
with high-pressure anomalies across the
subtropical Atlantic to produce stronger-than-
average westerlies across the mid-latitudes.
The positive NAO index shows a stronger than
usual subtropical, high pressure center and a
Chapter 2 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE SEA 25
deeper than normal Icelandic low. The increased
pressure difference results in more and stronger
winter storms crossing the Atlantic Ocean on a
more northerly track. This results in warm and
wet winters in Europe – and in cold and dry
winters in northern Canada and Greenland. This
means that during a positive NAO conditions
are colder and drier than average over the
northwestern Atlantic and Mediterranean
regions, whereas conditions are warmer and
wetter than average in northern Europe, the
eastern United States, and parts of Scandinavia.
The negative NAO (Figure 1, right) index shows a
weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low.
The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer
and weaker winter storms crossing on a more
west-east pathway. They bring moist air into the
Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe.
Greenland, however, will have milder winter
temperatures.
The NAO index is changing. Over the past
30 years, the NAO has moved towards a
more positive phase – and this change is
happening with a magnitude that seems to be
unprecedented in the observational record.
Visbeck, Hurrell, Polvani, and Cullen stress how
some of the most pronounced anomalies have
occurred since the winter of 1989. During this
period of time, there has been documented
record positive values of the NAO index.
Moreover, the trend in the NAO accounts for a
myriad of remarkable changes in the climate.
The changes have been registered over the
middle and high latitudes of the Northern
Hemisphere, as well as in marine and terrestrial
ecosystems.
26 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE SEA Chapter 2
According to the authors, this has resulted
in a series of major changes that include, for
example: milder winters in Europe, combined
with more severe winters over eastern Canada
and the northwest Atlantic; the advance of some
northern European glaciers and the retreat of
Alpine glaciers; changes in sea-ice cover in both
the Labrador and Greenland Seas, as well as over
the Arctic; pronounced decreases in mean sea
level pressure over the Arctic and changes in the
physical properties of Arctic sea water; changes
in the intensity of convection in the Labrador
and the Greenland–Iceland Seas; stratospheric
cooling over the polar cap and total column
ozone losses poleward of 40°N; and last, but not
least, changes in the production of zooplankton
and the distribution of fish, and changes in the
length of the growing season over Europe.
All of these changes seem to be strongly related
to the recent trend in the NAO index. The
persisting positive state of the NAO index since
the late 1980s has resulted on average in warmer
winters and an increased import of humid air
to Northern Europe. The winter of 2001/2002
was the fifth mild winter in succession. In the
following summer, positive deviations from the
long-term mean air temperature continued, with
very warm air masses from southern Europe
causing unusually stable “subtropical” conditions
in August and September. Also, regions
seemingly far removed from the Atlantic, such
as the Middle East, are experiencing significant
NAO-related impacts.
The remarkable behavior of the NAO in recent
decades have added to the debate over our
ability to detect and distinguish between
natural and anthropogenic climate change. As
emphasized by the authors, the recent upward
trend in the NAO index might account for much
of the observed regional surface warming
over Europe and Asia. Because global average
temperatures are dominated by temperature
variability over the northern landmasses, a
significant fraction of the recent warming
trend in global surface temperatures can be
explained as a response to observed changes
in atmospheric circulation. Because the NAO is
a natural mode of the atmosphere, one could
argue that much of the recent warming is not
related to the build-up of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere over the past century. This
viewpoint, however, ignores the possibility that
climate change caused by human activity might
influence modes of natural variability, perhaps
making it more likely that one phase of the NAO
is preferred over the other.
The Termo-Haline Conveyer Belt
Compared to the North Atlantic Oscillation,
the Thermo-Haline Conveyer Belt can explain
climatic changes on a much longer time scale.
This mechanism, called thermohaline
circulation, from the Greek words “thermos”
(heat) and “halos” (salt), seems to induce abrupt
large, global climate changes through a swift
reorganization of the ocean currents circulating
around the earth. These currents, collectively
known as the Ocean Conveyor, distribute vast
quantities of heat around the planet, and thus
play a fundamental role in governing the earth’s
climate.
Robert B. Gagoslan, Director of the Woods
Hole Oceanographic Institution, notes that the
oceans play a pivotal role in the distribution
and availability of water throughout the planet.
Evaporation from the ocean transfers huge
amounts of water vapor to the atmosphere,
where it travels aloft until it cools, condenses,
and eventually precipitates in the form of rain
or snow. At the same time, ocean currents
compensate for this evaporation loss via the
Thermo-Haline Conveyor Belt.
North Atlantic waters are relatively salty,
compared with other oceans. Salty water is
denser than fresh water. Cold water is denser
than warm water. When the warm, salty waters
of the North Atlantic release heat to the
atmosphere, they become colder and begin to
sink. In the seas that ring the northern fringe
of the Atlantic – the Labrador, Irminger, and
Greenland Seas – the ocean releases large
amounts of heat to the atmosphere and then
a great volume of cold, salty water sinks to
the abyss. This water flows slowly at great
depths into the South Atlantic and eventually
throughout the world’s oceans. The plunge
of this great mass of cold, salty water is the
driving force in the global ocean’s conveyor-like
circulation system that eventually brings warmer
water poleward from the equatorial areas.
Changes in ocean circulation or water properties
can disrupt this cycle on a global scale,
causing flooding and long-term droughts in
various regions. If cold, salty North Atlantic
waters did not sink, a primary force driving
global ocean circulation could slacken and
cease. Existing currents could weaken or be
Chapter 2 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE SEA 27
redirected. The resulting reorganization of the
ocean’s circulation would reconfigure earth’s
climate patterns. Simulations at Woods Hole
Oceanographic Institute show that the North
Atlantic Region might cool 3° to 5° C, if the
Thermo-Haline Conveyor were totally disrupted.
Such a disruption would produce winters twice
as cold as the worst winters on record in the
past century. Previous Conveyor shutdowns
have been linked with widespread droughts
throughout the globe.
If the Conveyor shuts down and induces a
climate transition, severe winters in the North
Atlantic Region would likely persist for decades
or even centuries – until conditions reached
another threshold at which thermohaline
circulation might resume. Abrupt regional
cooling, however, may even occur while the
earth, on average, continues to warm.
Signs of a possible slowdown already exist.
Reports indicate that the flow of cold, dense
water from the Norwegian and Greenland
© Nordregio & NLS Finland for the administrative boundaries
28 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE SEA Chapter 2
Seas into the North Atlantic has diminished by
at least 20% since 1950. The models suggest
that a continuation of the high emissions of
greenhouse gases will lead to a substantial
warming of the earth’s atmosphere in the
future, leading to further melting of the ice
and further dilution of the North Atlantic. In a
longer perspective, this might even result in
a complete shutdown of the Conveyor. It has
been emphasized that such a shutdown would
severely impact the Northern Atlantic Ocean
and Northwestern Europe. Since the main
commercial fish stocks in the North Atlantic are
already under considerable harvesting pressure,
it could, eventually, lead to the collapse of many
important fish stocks, which in turn would cause
a breakdown of the high seas fisheries in the
North Atlantic.
Scientists are investigating whether changes
in ocean circulation may have played a role in
causing or amplifying the Little Ice Age between
1300 and 1850. This period of abruptly shifting
climate regimes and more severe winters had
Figure 2:
The Thermo-Haline
Conveyor Belt
transports heat
throughout the planet.
Blue sections represent
warm surface currents.
Purple sections
represent deep cold
currents.
profound agricultural, economic, and political
impacts in Europe and North America and
changed the course of history. During this era,
the Norse abruptly abandoned their settlements
in Greenland.
In the event that a shutdown of the Conveyor
occurs, Professor Gagoslan proposes two
scenarios that are useful to contemplate:
Scenario 1: Conveyor slows down within the next
two decades.
Such a scenario could quickly and markedly cool
the North Atlantic region, causing disruptions
in global economic activity. These disruptions
may be exacerbated because the climate
changes occur in a direction opposite to what is
commonly expected, and they occur at a pace
that makes adaptation difficult.
Scenario 2: Conveyor slows down a century from
now.
In such a scenario, cooling of the North Atlantic
Region may partially or totally offset the major
effects of global warming in this region. Thus,
the climate of the North Atlantic region may
rapidly return to one that more resembles
today’s – even as other parts of the world,
particularly less-developed regions, experience
the unmitigated brunt of global warming. If
the Conveyor subsequently turns on again,
the “deferred” warming may be delivered in a
decade.
Scientists warm against ignoring or downplay-
ing the probability of abrupt climate change. It
is important to make clear that global warming
may not be universal. Rather, abrupt regional
cooling and gradual global warming can unfold
simultaneously. Indeed, greenhouse warming is
a destabilizing factor that makes abrupt climate
change more probable.
Ecosystems, economies, and societies can adapt
more easily to gradual, anticipated changes.
Some current policies and practices may be ill
advised and may prove inadequate in a world of
rapid and unforeseen climate change.
The major references and citations in this chapter are
from IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report.
Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth
Assessment. Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [Core Writing team, Pachauri, R.K and
Reisinger, A.(eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland | Hurrell,
J.W. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation
regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269,
676-9 | Martin H. Visbeck, James James W. Hurrell, Lorenzo
Polvani, and Heidi M. Cullen: The North Atlantic Oscillation:
Past, present, and future. A summary of a session presented
at the 12th annual symposium on Frontiers of Science,
held November 2–4, 2000, at the Arnold and Mabel
Beckman Center of the National Academies of Science and
Engineering in Irvine, CA | Robert B. Gagoslan: Abrupt
Climate Change: Should we be worried? Prepared for a
panel on abrupt climate change at the World Economic
Forum, Davos, Switzerland, January 27, 2003 | Graphics
and comments regarding the NAO visualization on the
globe are based on: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/
NAO/, and the Thermo-Haline Conveyer Belt visualization is
based on Robert B. Gagoslan’s report.
Chapter 2 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE SEA 29
Sisimiut
Greenlandic Towns Respond to Change
Tasiilaq
Paamiut
Greenland has experienced three major socio-
economic shifts during the 20th century.
The first was the shift during the 1910-20s from
a sea mammal based economy to one based on
fisheries. This shift was due to a marked increase
in sea temperature, resulting in a decrease in
sea mammal stocks, combined with a dwindling
world market for blubber and sealskin. Cod
became the dominate species.
The second shift was from cod fisheries to a
mono-economy based on shrimp fisheries
during the 1980s. This shift was due to a
reduction in sea temperature that eliminated the
spawning options for the cod stock, and opened
the way for a massive expansion of the shrimp
fisheries, especially facilitated by a shift from
inshore to offshore fisheries.
The third shift is reflected in the ongoing shift
towards a more diversified fisheries with shrimp
as the backbone of the economy as a whole, but
with Greenland Halibut offering a substantial
contribution to the economies of the Northern
Regions.
Each of these three major shifts impacted
the various communities in Greenland quite
differently. To shed light on the changes that
were precipitated by each of these major
30 Greenlandic Towns Respond to Change
economic shifts, we offer three examples:
Sisimiut and Paamiut in West Greenland and
Tasiilaq in East Greenland.
Sisimiut
Historically, Sisimiut is a place where many
initiatives have been tried over time, and
the response of the community to systemic
challenges imposed by shifting natural resources
is well documented.
Sisimiut was established in 1756 as a colony in a
rather productive agricultural region with access
to sea mammals, fish and land animals.
When the fisheries started in the beginning of
the 20th century, the community soon became
an important place for this activity as well.
Situated close to some of the most important
spawning and shrimp production banks along
the coast, it had excellent potential for positive
economic development. Over the years, there
was steady population growth to the present
level of well over 5,000 inhabitants.
Facilities for the salting of fish were established
in 1914. In the beginning, the focus was on
the production of salted products, but later a
freezing plant was built. By 1935, facilities for
shrimp processing were already in place, based
on a local species of shrimp. The shrimp were
peeled and canned. The canning of peeled Paamiut
shrimp was seen as a viable business when it Paamiut also dates from quite a way back,
was impossible to process cod fillets because having been established as a colony in 1742.
of diminished availability. A larger production Unlike Sisimiut, the future of Paamiut is quite
plant was built in 1968/69. The investment in uncertain. A dwindling population, the
large trawlers in the beginning of the 1970s lack of local initiatives and resources, along
especially enabled large scale production to with limited support from governmental
take place. Today, expansion of the offshore authorities, have created an untenable and
shrimp fisheries has substantially contributed to perhaps unsustainable situation for the Sisimiut
accelerated onshore processing activities in the community.
community.
A general problem for the settlement
Temperature throughout its history has been the ice
1,2
Sea temperature deviation 3
Mean temperature at the surface (°C) conditions during summer. The drift-ice from the
0,8
2 east coast is transported south of Cape Farewell
0,4

0 1
and northwards as far as Paamiut during cold
Fyllas Banke
-0,4
0
June - July periods. The reason for choosing this place as a
1900 1910 1920 1930 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
place of focused settlement, however, was the
Hunted seal Shrimp
high number of Greenlanders already settled in
1000 seals Catch (1000 tonnes)
30
25
10 years
average
120
the area. There was a sense that the potential
20
15
80
was great, but the ice conditions severely
10
5
40
frustrated expansion efforts. Given the present
0
1900 1910 1920 1930
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
changes in the climate, however, the ice seldom
Cod moves so far north, and as a consequence the
Catch (1000 tonnes) Catch (1000 tonnes)
ice is no longer a serious concern or threat to
10 400
8 300 local development.
6
200
4
100
2
0 0
The first building for the salting of cod was
1900 1910 1920 1930 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 erected in 1920. There were efforts to exploit
the local fisheries potential, but generally the
settlement continued to be rather complacent.
Figure: However, this attitude changed dramatically
Shifts in resources from 1900 to 2000. In the first part of the with the industrialization that took place in the
century the temperature increase resulted in a shift from 1950s and 1960s. The major turning point came
seal hunting to cod fisheries. In the second part of the cen- in 1958 when Paamiut was pinpointed as a very
tury the temperature decrease resulted in a shift from cod to good place for modern development.
shrimp fisheries.

Greenlandic Towns Respond to Change 31

Sisimiut is one of the towns in Greenland which has been able to adjust to both changes in resources, in climate,
and to socio-economic challenges. Photo: Rasmus Ole Rasmussen
Large investments were diverted to Paamiut,
first with investments in the fishing fleet,
and then later with the construction of an
ultra modern production plant. According to
government planners, Paamiut was intended to
be the second largest settlement in Greenland,
and to facilitate this development, modern
dwellings were erected. Paamiut turned into a
showcase of modernization.
Several problems ultimately presented
themselves, however. First of all, fluctuating
32 Greenlandic Towns Respond to Change
resources created uncertainty in the fisheries
and the processing activity as a consequence
was inconsistent. Secondly, the anticipated
immigration did not happen. It was expected
that the modernized settlement would attract
many people from the surrounding settlements,
and from the rest of Greenland. This, however,
did not happen. Because production at the
processing plant was focused on only one
species – cod – the plant was not able to adapt
quickly when the cod disappeared.
Tasiilaq
While West Greenland has always been included
in a global economic setting, both socially and
economically, essentially since colonization, East
Greenland has never experienced the same level
of integration. Only now, with the increased
emergence of large scale cruise tourism, has
integration become an important issue. Cruise
tourism may help open up the region to a higher
degree of integration in the general economy of
Greenland. The fact that East Greenland has now
become part of a larger East-West municipality
in connection with recent municipal reform may
add positively to this process of integration.
Tasiilaq is the largest town in East Greenland and
was founded in 1894. At that point in time, the
settlement had a total population of around 400,
suffering severely from vanishing food resources,
malnutrition and a variety of diseases.
Until the beginning of the 1950s, the primary
activity in the region was hunting. The Danish
colonial government at the time deliberately
limited the imposition of modern changes
or development. The Danish authorities
were worried about the risk that the region
would abandon its traditional way of life as a
consequence of unrestricted contact with the
ouside world.
At the end of the 1950s, however, access to the
district was permited, and, as the cod fisheries
looked promising during the 1960s, investments
were made in order to promote a change in the
economic base. The introduction of commercial
fishing did much to change a subsistence
economy into a money economy. The technical
fishing equipment used in the community was
modernized, the methods of transport changed
and the purchase of boats accelerated, and
the population began to concentrate around
the fish processing factories. Opening up the
community also provided the traditional hunters
with an important new source of income to
augment the cash obtained by the sale of seal
skins. The processing of fish also provided paid
work, and thus a new source of income.
Nonetheless, the people of Tasiilaq never truly
abandoned their hunting culture. Thus, when
a clear decline in cod production was recorded
between 1972 and 1976, it did not really affect
the region. Fishing has always been considered a
seasonal activity, so commercial fishing was and
remains a secondary activity. Although few East
Greenlanders still live exclusively from hunting,
the hunting of seals is by far the most important
basic subsistence activity in the Ammassalik
district.
The following sources have been used for
background and citations: Rasmus Ole Rasmussen,
2007. Adjustment to reality - Social response
to climate changes in Greenland I. Arctic
Alpine Ecosystems and People in a Changing
Environment. Berlin Heidelberg New York:
Springer | Rasmus Ole Rasmussen and Lawrence
C. Hamilton, 2001: The development of Fisheries in
Greenland. NORS Research Report no. 53, Roskilde
University.
Greenlandic Towns Respond to Change 33
 The Lofoten Fisheries:
Lofoten
Cod on the Move

© Nordregio & NLS Finland for the administrative boundaries

For more than 1000 years, the islands at Lofoten 80°N

have been the center of great cod fisheries,

especially in winter, when the cod migrate south
from the Barents Sea and gathers in Lofoten to
spawn. Vågar is the first known settlement in 75°N

northern Norway. It existed in the early Viking

Age, maybe earlier, and was located on the
southern coast on eastern Lofoten, not far from t

n
Svolvær and Kabelvåg in Vågan municipality. The

se
re
-ps
80

s
70°N

70
town has been a center for fisheries activities

19

19
a nd

-
0s
40s

195
ever since.

- 19
s
1910
The foundation of the fisheries is Lofoten is the
Arcto-Norwegian cod, which spawns along a
65°N

1500 km long coastline from West Norway to

Finnmark. The major spawning areas are located
at Lofoten and Møre. The cod congregate in
the spawning grounds in early spring by the 60°N

millions, presenting an easy target for fishermen; Feeding areas

estimates place fisheries mortality at between 0 200 km

Spawning areas

20 and 30 percent of the spawning fish. For a

long time, the export hub for the cod fisheries
to Europe was Bergen in southwestern Norway,
particularly so when trade was controlled by the
Hanseatic League.
A long history
The highly productive spawner fishery near
the Lofoten Islands has a very long history of
exploitation. Historically, the Northeast Arctic
cod matured late, with a mean age at first
Displacement of Arcto-Norwegian cod spawning areas.
Shown is a northward displacement and increase in spawn-
ing-stock biomass during warmer periods, and a southward
displacement and decrease in spawning-stock biomass
during colder periods. In addition the feeding grounds in the
Barents sea have been included.

34 The Lofoten Fisheries: Cod on the Move

spawning of about 10 years. Scientists believe
that the centuries of fairly intensive exploitation
at the spawning grounds have been partially
responsible for this late maturation. Faced with
the high risk of being caught at the spawning
grounds and enjoying low levels of mortality
at the feeding grounds, fish that delayed their
maturation had the advantage. Delayed maturity
allowed them to stay at the feeding grounds
until a later age, and thus to grow to a larger size
before arriving at the spawning grounds.
Data from the Norwegian fisheries of the 20th
century presented by Svein Sundby and Odd
Nakken show that there have been long-term
fluctuations in the magnitude of spawning
among the spawning locations. These long-term
spawning trends correlate with similar long-term
temperature trends. Although the spawning
location at Lofoten maintains its central role as
the spawning habitat during changing climate,
the border spawning regions to the south and
north of Lofoten are influenced by climate
change. During warm periods, as during the
period 1930-1950 and after the 1980s, the
northern spawning locations off Troms and
Finnmark became increasingly important while
the spawning in the southern locations at Møre
decreased. During cold periods, e.g., 1900-1920
and 1960-1980, the southern spawning areas
became more important and the northern areas
less so.
From spawner to feeder fishery
Advances in fisheries technology has also
impacted the fisheries, a situation that has
been explained by three researchers, Heino,
Dieckmann, and Godø. In the early days, fishing
was limited for the most part to the nearshore
spawning areas. The development of modern,
motor-powered trawler fishing in the late 1920s,
however, enabled offshore fishing at the feeding
grounds in the Barents Sea. In fact, since World
War II, most fishing effort has concentrated on
the Barents Sea, with annual mortality often
exceeding 40% of the total fish population.
A key factor here is that, as opposed to the
spawner fishery, the feeder fishery is unselective
with regard to maturation. The current
fishing mortality is actually so high that only
a small fraction of the fish survive to maturity;
consequently, the current catch consists mostly
of tiny, immature fish.
Under the new exploitation regime brought
about because of advances in fisheries
technology, earlier maturation of the cod would
be advantageous. Early maturation would
ensure earlier spawning. The Northeast Arctic
cod have experienced a shift from a harvesting
pattern that favors late maturation to a pattern
favoring early maturation. Therefore, one could
conclude that the Northeast Arctic cod would
experience evolutionary shifts towards early
maturation. Current observations confirm this
hypothesis. The authors have noted a decrease
of about three years in the mean age at first
spawning from the 1940s until today.
The Lofoten Fisheries: Cod on the Move 35
”Modern fishing vessels in the harbour in Svolvær in Lofoten Norway” Photo: Stian Jensen
Pressure on fish stocks
However, another hypothesis for the change
in maturity has been offered, and relates to
the increased pressure on the fish stock. The
intensive exploitation has led to a situation
where the stock biomass has declined from an
estimated 4.2 million tonnes immediately after
the World War II to below 1 million tonnes in
the 1990s. This decline in biomass has resulted
in better predation conditions for those fish
that remain; consequently, the growth rate of
juvenile cod has increased. It is a commonly
understood that fish mature at earlier ages, if
growth conditions improve; therefore, increased
growth rates resulting from increased fishing
36 The Lofoten Fisheries: Cod on the Move
effort could also explain the observed decline in
the age at first spawning.
To determine which of the competing
explanations may be correct is not only an
academic exercise, but also may be an important
tool for the management of the fish stocks.
Exploitation pressure, therefore, is expected to
lead to several negative consequences. When
maturation takes place earlier, sustainable yield
declines because the biomass is smaller. When
the average size of a fish decreases, the market
value of the catch is diminished. If the reduction
is size is due to a change in spawning conditions,
The islands at Lofoten have been the center of great cod fisheries, especially in winter, when the cod migrate south from the
Barents Sea and gathers in Lofoten to spawn. Photo: Trymb Bergsmo

a recovery of the stock may be possible within a

relatively short span of time simply by reducing
the pressure on the stock. However, if the
observed changes in maturation have a genetic
component—as now seems to be the case—the
deterioration in yield will not be easily reversed,
even if the fishing industry takes steps to alter
harvesting patterns. As emphasized by the
authors, genetic recovery occurs much more
slowly than ecological recovery. It is, therefore,
in the interest of fisheries managers to prevent
unwanted genetic changes as much as possible.
The most important sources used as background
material and referenced in the case, including the
map, have been Mikko Heino, Ulf Dieckmann, and
Olaf Rune Godø, Shrinking Cod: Fishery-Induced
Change in an Oceanic Stock. Understanding
adaptation in natural systems. | www.iiasa.ac.at,
Options, spring 2000 | Svein Sundby and Odd
Nakken, 2008. Spatial shifts in spawning habitats
of Arcto-Norwegian cod related to multidecadal
climate oscillations and climate change. – ICES
Journal of Marine Science, 65: 953–962.

The Lofoten Fisheries: Cod on the Move 37

The following sources have been used for
background and citations:

Rasmus Ole Rasmussen, 2007. Adjustment to

reality - Social response to climate changes in
Greenland I. Arctic Alpine Ecosystems and People
in a Changing Environment. (1 udg.). (s. 167-180).
Berlin Heidelberg New York: Springer.

Rasmus Ole Rasmussen and Lawrence C. Hamilton,

2001: The development of Fisheries in Greenland.
NORS Research Report no. 53, Roskilde University.
124p.
 CHAPTER 3
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE LAND

· On land, the environmental impact of • Air temperature and a number of

changes in the climate is related to two processes partly influenced by human
characteristics of the land: interaction are decisive for the changes
in the permafrost. Permafrost loss
· On the one hand, changes in vegetation. contributes to erosion and landscape
changes.
• Changes in temperature lead to
new species entering into a region, • Permafrost is important because
while others disappear. The changes it impacts infrastructure development:
also impact the productivity of the thawing of the permafrost creates
vegetation due to increased foundation instability.
temperatures and higher levels of CO2.
· Changes in vegetation and the permafrost
• Vegetation characteristics are important both lead to release of greenhouse gases
for potential land use in the region, as – primarily CO2 and methane – and can
human exploitation will depend on thereby contribute to an acceleration of
which types of plants are available, and the process of climate change. The level of
thus which types of animals can live in release may be of magnitudes that severely
the region exacerbate ongoing changes.

· On the other, changes in the soil, especially in · While some of the traditional ice-dependent
the permafrost. activities suffer from climate changes, the
agricultural sector illustrates that there may
also be ‘winners’ relative to climate change.

Chapter 3 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE LAND 39

O ver time, changes in the climate have
resulted in significant variations in the type
and amount of vegetation found in Europe and
the Nordic region. Today, the growing season
in central Europe, for example, is beginning
earlier and earlier. Similar observations have
been noted in the northern climes as well. Rapid
warming in the Arctic areas is expected to lead
to significant changes in the vegetation cover,
with altered tree lines, species composition, as
well as local hydrological shifts, melting of the
permafrost, etc.
“Rapid warming in the Arctic
More than 50% of the Northern Hemisphere’s areas is expected to lead to
land surface is covered by seasonally frozen significant changes in the veg-
ground. Freezing can last for a few weeks in the etation cover, with altered tree
middle and lower latitudes to several months in lines, species composition, as
the high latitudes. well as local hydrological shifts,
melting of the permafrost, etc.”
Increasing air temperatures often result in
increasing snow cover in winter, and this will “During summer, soils will be
most likely result in an overall thinning of drier, and fires and drought
the permafrost at a faster rate than predicted more frequent. Local species
from mere temperature increase alone. Snow loss may be significant although
depth plays a major role in determining few tree species are expected to
where permafrost is present and absent. If the become extinct.”
observed trends continue, the permafrost is
likely to eventually disappear in the area.

Permafrost melt will raise the level of methane

discharge, a greenhouse gas that is 25 times
more potent than CO2 and is responsible for
about 20% of the global warming observed
since the industrial revolution. This may very
well accelerate temperature increases around
the globe.

40 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE LAND Chapter 3

Vegetation and fauna
It is expected that the boreal forests will be
more affected by climate change than any other
forest type. The warming, which is expected to
be greater in winter than in summer, will shift
climate zones poleward by as much as 5 km a
year. Boreal forests will advance northwards
while at the same time their southern edges
will begin to experience die back or even be
replaced by more temperate species. During
the summer, soils will be drier, and fires and
drought more frequent. Local species loss may
be significant, although few tree species are
expected to actually become extinct.
Any significant change in the boreal forests
could have a considerable affect on the level of
CO2 in the atmosphere. With 26% of total carbon
stocks, boreal forests account for more carbon
uptake than any other terrestrial ecosystem.
Between the northern edge of the boreal
forest, where trees actively regenerate, and the
treeless tundra is a dynamic transition zone
known as the ‘forest-tundra’. In North America,
this zone can be only a few kilometres wide,
while in Europe it could be up to 200 km. It is
naturally fragmented and contains patches of
relatively heavy forest cover punctuated by
areas of lichen-heath, as well as areas of very
sparse tree growth. The forest-tundra supports
more species than either the boreal or the
tundra systems as it contains species from both
systems.
The trees of the forest-tundra are generally
stunted, and are slow to regenerate. Trad-
itionally, commercial exploitation of such
forest-tundra timber was impractical, although
this particular type of ecosystem has long
provided local peoples with necessary wood
for fuel and buildings. As world pressure on
resources escalates, however, it might become
economically practicable to harvest timber
from these forests. As the boreal forests move
northward, changes in the climate could result
in biodiversity loss and the Arctic tundra is
particularly vulnerable.
In the Nordic region, the Arctic tundra exists as
a relatively narrow strip between the northern
forest and the Arctic seas. If the scenarios for
climate change are correct, the forest can in time
stretch right out to the coast and completely
consume this unique ecosystem. In the northern
part of the North Atlantic Region, forest areas
are rare. Warming could actually lead to the
creation of forests in this area.
In winter, the forest-tundra provides habitat for
populations of caribou and reindeer, which are
herded by the Sami in the far north. The forest-
tundra also plays a crucial role in stabilizing
fragile soils and helps to prevent erosion. It
works to conserve local water resources
and actually filters pollutants. It is a primary
indicator of the changing climate and serves to
store carbon.
There are, however, indications of an
unexpected and as yet inexplicable trend. In
certain areas of the north, observers of climate
change have noticed a shortening of the
growing season in northern Fennoscandia and
on the Kola Peninsula. During the last century
in these areas, there is evidence of a later onset
Chapter 3 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE LAND 41
and an earlier end of the growing season. The
precise climatic reason behind this trend is not
known. However, the region is a unique meeting
point of different climatic elements with large
contrasts in climate and vegetation from south
to north and from west to east. At the same
time, the pollution from mining and large-scale
industries on the Kola Peninsula may also be
contributing to the observed growth trends in
the vegetation.
The consequences of climate change on
ecosystems are complex. Among the most
visible changes are small drops in the prey
population. Such reductions can cause
reproduction of predators to fail completely.
One example is the habitat of the Arctic fox in
the Arctic tundra. According to Nigel Yoccoz
and Rolf Anker Ims, both with the University of
Tromsø, the Arctic tundra ecosystem remains
in a delicate balance, making the Arctic fox and
other predators in the region excellent indicators
of changes in the ecosystem as a whole.
As the researchers note in an interview in the 25
May 2005 issue of Innovation Report, the Arctic
fox population is in clear decline in the southern
part of the tundra and in the high mountains.
There is concern it might disappear entirely from
Norway. At the turn of the last century, there
were thousands of Arctic foxes in Norwegian
mountain and northern coastal areas. The
population has been decimated and now stands
at just 100. As a result of a warmer climate,
the environment of the Arctic fox’s toughest
competitor, the red fox, will improve markedly.
The Arctic fox and many other tundra predators
42 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE LAND Chapter 3
completely stop breeding in the years when
there are few lemmings while in a good
lemming year as many as 16 Arctic fox cubs
can be born into a litter. The Norway lemming
is thus a key species in the Arctic tundra, and
the fluctuations in its population can impact
the entire food chain. It will take a long time
to observe how the vegetation reacts to a
reduction in lemming numbers. However, the
predators react quickly to a food shortage and
good lemming years are becoming more and
more rare as global warming advances.
Permafrost
The permafrost is perennially frozen ground
and it underlies 20–25% of the terrestrial
surface of the Northern Hemisphere. According
to Johansson, Christensen, Akerman, and
Callaghan, the permafrost interacts with many
ecosystems and is an integral part of many
northern landscapes. The distribution of the
permafrost is generally categorized into three
basic zones, based on the percentage of land
surface underlain by permafrost: continuous
permafrost (90–100%), discontinuous
permafrost (50–90%), and sporadic permafrost
(10–50%).
Any rock or soil remaining at or below 0° C for
two or more years is considered permafrost.
It can contain over 30% ice, or practically no
ice at all. It can be overlain by several meters
of snow, or little or no snow. The thickness of
the permafrost varies from a few decimeters
up to several hundred meters. Although some
permafrost may be thousands of years old, it
may very well be in formation or about to thaw.
Generally it exists very close to its melting point.
As the permafrost thaws, it can jeopardize
both man-made structures and the natural
landscape. As a consequence, the permafrost
has profound implications for infrastructure and
the economies in the north.
to microbial decomposition and plant root
function. The permafrost below often contains
unique records of biological activity, particularly
carbon from earlier periods when the permafrost
was totally absent or found deeper in the
ground.

On top of the permafrost is an active layer that
melts and refreezes on a seasonal basis. Its
thickness varies from a few decimeters in peat
to more than several meters. The thickness is
decided by climate, vegetation cover, and soil
type. The active layer is the upper subsurface
layer with biological activity, which amounts
In the Arctic, the mean annual air temperature
has shifted farther north since the time of the
Little Ice Age, much farther than the permafrost.
This means that certain permafrost areas only
persist as relict permafrost. Given the gradual
warming of the environment, this permafrost
will, eventually, disappear. In a warming climate,

The melting of permafrost is a process highly influenced not only by changes in climate, but also increasingly by human
activities. Trampling by tourists increases the speed of melting, but the impact can be reduced by using footpaths such as this
on Svalbard. Photo: Rasmus Ole Rasmussen

Chapter 3 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE LAND 43

permafrost is likely to disappear first from areas
with a mean annual air temperature of around
0° C.
As the authors note, the predominant driver of
permafrost dynamics is ground temperature.
Because the formation of permafrost is
dependent on ground temperature, historical
records of air temperature give some indication
of actual ground temperatures. The time
required for melting depends primarily on the
temperature of the permafrost, the ground ice
content, and the initial permafrost thickness.
Therefore, current air temperature is now an
influential parameter for permafrost existence,
since low air temperatures are required to keep
the ground from thawing.
However, for a given air temperature, the
largest single factor accounting for variations
in the ground surface temperatures during
the winter months is the local and regional
spatial variability in snow cover. The thickness
and duration of snow cover is hence a critical
parameter for the presence or absence of
permafrost in the subarctic. The snow acts as an
insulator and protects the ground from heat loss
and prevents the cold winter air temperatures
from penetrating into the ground.
The timing of the start and end of the snow
season also affects ground temperatures
and hence permafrost existence. Favorable
conditions for permafrost exist when snow falls
late in the autumn, allowing cool autumn air to
penetrate and when snow falls late in the spring,
and thereby increasing the reflection of the sun’s
energy. In this connection, wind is important
44 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE LAND Chapter 3
because it determines where insulating snow
cover will accumulate, and where the surface will
be snow free. The drift pattern is related to the
wind speed, wind direction, and the topography
and is, therefore, generally reproduced in a
specific pattern every year.
The thickness of the permafrost increases with
increasing altitude from one or a few meters
to many tens of meters. Permafrost is found at
lower altitudes on north-facing slopes, since
these areas are rarely exposed to direct solar
radiation.
Proximity to large bodies of water tends to
reduce temperature extremes, which affects the
distribution of permafrost. One example could
be lakes that do not freeze to the bottom in
winter, and where it is common to find unfrozen
soil layers. The lakes act as a heat source and
have a marked effect on ground temperatures
and the local distribution of permafrost. Similarly
closeness to the sea is important, as yearly
fluctuations in sea temperature are much more
limited than in the air and on land.
In a warming climate as observed in the Arctic
during the last decades, the total lake area has
increased in continuous permafrost areas. In
areas of discontinuous and sporadic permafrost,
the total lake area has decreased. The
discrepancy between the different permafrost
zones is because initial permafrost warming
leads to development of lake expansion,
followed by lake drainage as permafrost
continues to degrade.

Large industrial infrastructure
has a marked effect on the sta-
tus of the permafrost in the high
Arctic, but everyday activity by
inhabitants in isolated northern
settlements, as well, can result in
a change in the permafrost, for
example, through the soot that
originates from the burning of
coal, fuel oil, and firewood for
heating.
Vegetation cover affects the thermal properties
of the ground mainly in two ways: 1) by forming
a snow trap in winter that increases the snow
accumulation and persistence of snow cover;
2) by reducing the amount of solar radiation
reaching the ground surface in summer. A stand
of trees therefore creates its own microclimate.
An increase in snow depth occurs as the
vegetation reduces the velocity of blowing
snow and reduces the sublimation rates. Shrub
canopies can increase winter soil temperature by
2° C, relative to adjacent shrub-free tundra.
The heat exchange at the ground is mainly
controlled by the net exchange of radiation. This
exchange depends on the fluctuations in global
short-wave radiation and terrestrial long-wave
radiation, but also depends on local conditions,
such as topography and vegetation. Part of
the global radiation that reaches the surface
is reflected, and the amount is determined
by the reflectivity of a surface. The amount of
global radiation reflected in a certain area varies
spatially since different surfaces have different
albedo, or the ratio of reflected to incident
light, but it also varies temporally. Radiation
reflected from a mire where sphagnum mosses
were dominant, varied temporally from 83% in
March and April during premelt conditions, to
13% during snow melt in May to 23% during
postmelt and midsummer. The amount of
heat transported from the surface down in the
ground therefore varies greatly for the same
location over a few months.
Apart from the surface characteristics, the soil
type and the amount of organic material in the
soil are also of great importance for the heat
flow from the surface to the ground and hence
for ground temperatures. The depth of thaw
generally increases as the organic layer thickness
decreases. This increase is caused by the fact
that heat penetrates much less rapidly in organic
soils than in mineral soils. Sandy soils have
lower thermal conductivity than soils found in
the heath because of lower water content and
looser packing of the soil grains. The heath soils,
which are rich in silt, are capable of holding large
quantities of water and have a high thermal
conductivity and hence a good capacity for
transferring heat to the ground during the
summer.
Chapter 3 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE LAND
45
In contrast, the conductivity of peat in summer
is usually very low since the peat is usually
dry, and as a result the peat layer acts as an
insulating cover preventing the warm summer
air from penetrating the ground. The peat’s
conductivity varies seasonally with its moisture
conditions. In the autumn and the beginning of
winter the peat usually has higher water content
than in summer, which increases its conductivity
and allows the cool autumn/winter air to
penetrate through its surface and affect ground
temperature. Peat is therefore a very favourable
soil type for permafrost existence. Permafrost
can be found in peat lands as far south as the
current +1°C air isotherm and beyond.
Permafrost and human interaction
Even though many of the areas that are
underlain by permafrost are sparsely
populated, Johansson, Christensen, Akerman,
and Callaghan stress that the pressure from
humans in some areas is still large. Exploitation
of the Arctic by humans affects permafrost on
a site-specific scale as well—for example, by
construction of infrastructures.
A structure built on or in permafrost will change
the heat exchange between the atmosphere and
the ground. The removal of the vegetation and
the organic layer in association with engineering
activities makes the active layer thicker and
degradation of permafrost may occur.
Certainly, as they note, large industrial
infrastructure has a marked effect on the
status of the permafrost in the high Arctic, but
everyday activity by inhabitants in isolated
46 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE LAND Chapter 3
northern settlements, as well, can result in a
change in the permafrost, for example, through
the soot that originates from the burning of coal,
fuel oil, and firewood for heating.
In areas with high reindeer population density,
grazing affects the vegetation cover, alters the
reflectivity, alters the amount of radiation that
reaches the ground and results in a warming of
the ground temperature. The impact of other
human activity is mainly by intensively used
footpaths and snowmobile tracks, which have
locally degraded the vegetation and have most
likely resulted in higher ground temperatures
along major hiking tracks.
Areas underlain by permafrost are sensitive to
changes in climate and it is usually difficult to
stop a degrading process once it has started.
However, when processes are related to human
activities, preventive approaches may and
must be taken. For example, in connection with
infrastructure, intervention is mandated to
avoid the slumping of buildings, pipelines, and
roads. In most cases, engineering solutions are
available to address climate change impacts.
In fact, today it is more an economical issue
rather than a technological issue. As the areas
underlain by permafrost in northern Scandinavia
are usually not highly exploited by man, there
are very few conservation actions undertaken in
this region. One example is wooden walkways
for tourists that are placed over mires underlain
by permafrost in order to protect and prevent
disturbance of the sensitive vegetation.
Because surface temperatures are increasing
over most permafrost areas, permafrost is
receiving increased attention. Measurements of
ground temperature have produced a generally
consistent picture of permafrost warming over
the past several decades. Boreholes in northern
Alaska show that the surface temperature
increased by 2 to 4° C between the beginning
of the 20th century and the mid-1980s.
Measurements indicated further warming of
about 3° C since the late 1980s.
Three deep boreholes (more than 100 m) in
mountain permafrost were recently drilled in
Svalbard (Janssonhaugen) and in Scandinavia
(Tarfalaryggen and Juvvasshøe) for long-term
permafrost monitoring. Six-year time series
collected from the three boreholes provide
the first opportunity for documentation of the
temporal trends in permafrost temperatures in
Svalbard and Scandinavia. Results show that
the permafrost has warmed considerably at all
three sites. Significant warming is detectable
down to at least 60 m depth, and present
decadal warming rates at the permafrost surface
are in the order of 0.04° - 0.07° C, with the
greatest warming in Svalbard and in northern
Scandinavia.
Global consequences of change
in permafrost
The role of permafrost in the climate system
is threefold. First, permafrost provides
a “temperature archive” that enables
documentation of environmental changes
in the past. At depths below 15 to 20 m,
there is generally little or no annual cycle of
temperature, so seasonality does not influence
warming or cooling.
Second, permafrost serves as a vehicle for
transferring atmospheric temperature changes
to the hydrological and biological components
of the earth system. For example, the presence
of permafrost significantly alters surface and
subsurface water fluxes, as well as vegetative
functions. Third, changes in permafrost can feed
back to climate change through the release
of trace gases such as CO2 and methane (CH4),
linking climate change in the Arctic to global
climate change.
A major consequence of ongoing climate
change, and especially the melting of the
permafrost is the rising level of methane.
Methane is a greenhouse gas that is 25 times
more potent than CO2 and is responsible for
20% of all global warming since the industrial
revolution. There are clear indications that
a substantial part of the increase is caused
by additional methane release in the high
northern latitudes. A likely consequence of this
development may be an acceleration in the rise
of global temperatures.
Methane is the second most important
greenhouse gas, and while pre-industrial
methane levels were about 700 parts per
billion, the changes that have occurred since
industrialization have led to a level today of
around 1,773 parts per billion. Typical sources of
methane emission include wetlands, rice fields,
cattle, forest and grass fires, natural gas leakage
and use, and coal mines.
Discharge from some sources has been
increasing, such as fossil fuel use, cattle, and rice,
while there is less discharge from others, such
Chapter 3 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE LAND 47
as natural tropical wetlands. The thawing of the
permafrost is unfortunately another potentially
major source of methane. Methane discharge
from this source alone could account for up
to 87% of the present increase in atmospheric
methane.
Moreover, it is expected that as much as 10
times the amount of the methane that is
currently in the atmosphere will be discharged
from newly formed lakes as the permafrost
thaws in the future. The timing of this emission is
uncertain, however. If global warming continues
as projected, it is anticipated that these levels
will be reached in a time frame ranging from
a few hundred years to perhaps thousands.
Thus, in a very short span of time geologically-
speaking, a substantial amount of the carbon
that has been locked up in the ground for many
thousands of years could be converted to two
powerful greenhouse gases, methane and
carbon dioxide.
Prevention of human effects on permafrost
is becoming more apparent. As emphasized
above, areas underlain by permafrost are
sensitive to changes in the climate and it is
usually difficult to stop a degrading process
once it has started. Human activities tend to
increase degradation processes, so actions to
protect the great areas of land underlain by
permafrost are necessary.
One example would be to ensure that during
construction of infrastructure that efforts are
taken to prevent thawing of ice-rich permafrost
in order to avoid slumping of buildings, pipe-
lines, and roads. Another way to prevent
48 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE LAND Chapter 3
severe damage to the sensitive environment
by off-road vehicles is to restrict the time when
travel by off-road vehicle is allowed to times
when the active layer is completely frozen and
the vegetation is protected by snow.
For this chapter two sources especially have been used
extensively. In relation to changes in vegetation: CAFF
(2001). Arctic Flora and Fauna: Status and Conservation.
Helsinki, Arctic Council Programme for the Conservation
of Arctic Flora and Fauna | In relation to changes
in permafrost the main source has been: Margareta
Johansson, Torben R. Christensen, H. Jonas Akerman, and
Terry V. Callaghan. What Determines the Current Presence
or Absence of Permafrost in the Torneträsk Region, a Sub-
arctic Landscape in Northern Sweden? AMBIO, Volume 35,
issue 4 (June 2006).
In addition to these major sources the chapter includes
information from: Signs of Climate Change in Nordic
Nature. 2009. Nordic Council of Ministers, TemaNord
2009:551 | John-Andre Henden; Rolf Anker Ims; Nigel
Gilles Yoccoz: Nonstationary spatio-temporal small
rodent dynamics: evidence from long-term Norwegian fox
bounty data. Journal of Animal Ecology 2009 ; Volume 78 |
State of the Cryosphere. National Snow and
Ice Data Center, University of Colorado at Boulder | Ketil
Isaksen, Johan Ludvig Sollid, Per Holmelund and Charles
Harris: Recent warming of mountain permafrost in Svalbard
and Scandinavia. Journal of geophysical research. 2007, Vol.
112, nr. F2. American Geophysical Union, Washington.
 Crop Growing in the Faroe Islands:
Faroe
90 Years of Adaptation to Climate Change
Islands
There is considerable evidence from oral
traditions and written sources about how harsh
life was in the relatively isolated communities of
the Faroe Islands some one hundred years ago.
However, it is a rarity to find empirical evidence
of their harsh struggle to survive.
One exception is the fairly large and well-run
farm, Uppistova in Norðoyri. Quite detailed plant
production data was recorded for a relatively
long period during the 19th century. Analysis
of the collected data on developments in the
production of hay, grain, potatoes and other
plants indicate that there was a significant
variation in climate over the almost 90 years
during which data was recorded.
This data provides a unique insight into how
the combination of different crops and animals,
including pilot whales, enabled the communities
in the Faroes to survive in spite of drastic climate
changes during this time.
The village
A Faroese village in 1813 consisted of one or
more farms, together with a number of houses.
The infield around the farms, bøurin, was
surrounded by stone dikes or walls a meter and
a half or so high, and here grain was grown for
human consumption and hay was produced for
winter fodder for the cattle. Two decades into
Crop Growing in the Faroe Islands:
the 19th century, a new crop was introduced
– potatoes. Potatoes were well suited for the
rather cold and moist climate of the Faroe
Islands. The so-called outfield beyond the stone
walls, hagin, was the grazing area for sheep.
Here they roamed high up in the mountains
during the summer. In winter, the sheep were
brought down closer to the village or into the
infields after the hay had been safely harvested
and stored away. The cattle grazed near the
village in the outfield from May or June to the
beginning of October. During the winter, they
stood in the cowsheds and were fed with hay
harvested from the infields in the autumn. The
manure was gathered into a dunghill. Each
year a part of the infield was, after thorough
cultivation and manuring, sown with ‘Faroese’
barley, Hordeum hexasticum.
Finding the right mix
Thus, there was a fixed relation between the
area of the infield, the production of hay, the
number of cows that could be fed in winter,
the gathering up of farmyard manure and
the practicable area for grain. In this way the
possible production of milk, as well as grain,
were fixed. In the same way, the number of
sheep in the outfield was relatively stable. The
traditional, experience-based number was
known as the skipan, depending on the average
grass produce in this area.
Chapter
7 Climate
90 Years of Adaptation
changeto–Climate Change 49 49
and Transportation
 160 days

Length of the growing period for barley

The reason for this farmer resistance was that
1823-1890 sheep were not only providers of mutton, but
155 10 years moving average
also, more importantly, they were the base of a
150
monetized prosperity, as woolen goods were the
only products that for centuries could be sold
145 to the Monopoly Trade. The small landholders
on the other hand wanted a piece of land that
140
could yield one ‘cowfodder’. One cow, or just one
to share between two families, supplemented
135
1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 with some fishing and potato growing, meant
25-oct Beginning and end of the harvesting that the caloric base for survival was secured for
period for barley a poor family.
19-oct 1815-1890
10 years moving average
13-oct

07-oct
The cycle of the crops
Grain has been a stable food for centuries,
01-oct
but potatoes, which were introduced in 1820,
25-sep
had by 1855 apparently taken over the areas
19-sep
former reserved for grain. The yield of grain and
13-sep
potatoes, which have about the same variation
07-sep
1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 rhythm throughout the year, reveal good
summer conditions around the years 1815, 1834,
Figure: Length of growing period for barley and start and
1861 and 1884, separated by poorer periods.
end of harvesting period.

In order to provide a reasonable output, the

When the population started to grow more
steadily around 1800, the demand for extension
of the cultivated areas, especially by the small
landholders, traðarmenn, arose. This demand
was in conflict with the old balance between
the in- and outfields. If areas previously in the
outfield were enclosed, the farmers would loose
grazing areas for the sheep, especially the good
low-lying areas that had special importance
as winter grazing areas. Most of the large
farmers had a negative view on the movement
to cultivate new infield areas for the growing
population.
sowing and the harvesting times are crucial.
If the late summer and early autumn is cold and
wet, then the growing and ripening period is
prolonged, and some years the grain does not
ripen at all. The overall variation in the beginning
of the grain harvest goes from the first week
of September to the first week of October, but
as the finishing day usually covariates with the
beginning day, the length of the harvesting
period does not vary much, only 9-14 days.
However, something remarkable happened in
last 25-year period or so when the harvesting
period increases from around 14 days to 26-28
days. A shortage of labour was not contributory,

50 Crop Growing in the Faroe Islands: 90 Years of Adaptation to Climate Change

If areas in the outfield
were cultivated, the
Faroese farmers would
loose the grazing areas
for their sheep .
Photo:
Finnur Justinussen
as the population in the village, as well as in
the Uppistovu farm, is not less than before.
The only plausible explanation can be that
the weather conditions in the autumn for the
period ca. 1875-1890 deteriorated, being colder
and wetter, forcing the harvest season to be
extended in hopes that the grain would dry.
Going to sea
Furthermore a similar, but inverted, variation in
the number of pilot whales caught is indicated.
Faroese statistic series (1709-2001) on catches
of the pilot whales also show characteristic
variations, which can be related to the following
of their food, mainly the squid (Todarodes
saggittatus). There is seemingly a correlation
between good whaling years and poor grain
years. The following periods have relative
maxima catches for whales, with the poor years
for grain in parentheses: 1820-22 (1823-25),
1840-42 (1841-44), 1870-75 (1871-72). Likewise,
the minima years for whaling and good grain
Crop Growing in the Faroe Islands:
years seem to correspond: 1825-35 (1831-34),
1860 (1861-61), 1884-88 (1883-83).
In a region where changes in the climate appear
with some regularity, the need of an adjustment
strategy is required in order to survive. This
has been the case in the Faroe Islands. A broad
combination of a variety of resources enables
the community to be resistant to fluctuations.
In the case of the Faroe Islands, a system was
developed through centuries that enabled the
inhabitants to remain on the islands throughout
climate variations that otherwise would have
jeopardized their existence.
The text in this case includes excerpts from the following
articles: Rolf Guttesen: Plant production on a Faeroese farm
1813-1892, related to climatic fluctuations. Danish Journal
of Geography | Rolf Guttesen: Animal production and
climate variation in the Faeroe Islands in the 19th century.
Danish Journal of Geography
Chapter
7 Climate
90 Years of Adaptation
changeto– Climate Change 51 51
and Transportation
 Qaanaaq
The new winners?
Qassiarsuk
Igaliko
The peoples living in the Arctic region will be
among the first to cope with the impact of
global warming. Usually, we hear about the
possible negative consequences of such change
on arctic populations, and there are a number of
cases that can substantiate this negative impact.
Less frequent, however, are reports about the
possible positive consequences of encroaching
climate change. It is important to draw attention
to these potential consequences as well.
In the North, the ice becomes
unstable
Good ice cover during the winter and spring
is important for traditional hunters to access
whales and seals. Reports now talk about
the problems in accessibility due to “rotten”
ice because of increases in both air and sea
temperatures. Similarly, news reports and
scientific studies explore the migration of
important traditional species, such as the polar
bear and the ringed seal further north, which
are important income sources for some of the
settlements, announcing that these species
may actually disappear. Other species will suffer
as well. For instance, musk ox and reindeer
will have problems surviving extreme weather
conditions with alternating thaw and freeze
periods during the winter.
52 The new winners?
In the South, new opportunities
appear
It is well recognized, however, that the warmer
climate has had a positive impact on Greenland’s
economic possibilities and development. The ice
conditions in South Greenland have improved,
and as a consequence access to the towns and
villages is becoming easier. Moreover, the return
of the cod to Greenland has stimulated local
economies, enabling communities that were
hit severely by the disappearance of cod during
the 1980s to regain some hopeful economic
opportunities. The farmers in the southwest
of Greenland especially are looking forward
to longer summers and less severe winters,
providing new opportunities to grow a variety
of crops and to further expand of their farming
activities, which were established back in
1905. These farming initiatives have made an
important contribution to the local economy in
South Greenland.
Historical background
Sheep farming in the Arctic is generally a
marginal activity. This is partly because sheep
rely on plant species found in milder climates.
Sheep were introduced with the general
spread of agriculture in connection with the
colonization of the Arctic. During the 18th and
19th centuries, sheep farming existed exclusively
for the subsistence of the colonies. However,
with the growing need at the beginning of the
20th century for alternative resources to ensure
basic sustenance, and especially with a growing
focus on monetized economies, many attempts
were made to increase sheep production.
The key reason for introducing sheep farming
in Greenland was directly related to the general
resource depletion that occurred in the early 20th
century, combined with the growing sedentary
character of the population. These twin factors
led to increased starvation and malnutrition. The
initiator of commercial agriculture in Greenland
was Reverend Jens Chemnitz, who came from
the settlement Frederiksdal in South Greenland.
During a stay in Copenhagen in 1905 - 1906,
Lush potato fields on a Greenlandic farm give evidence of a warmer climate and new agriculture possibilities.
Photo: Kenneth Høegh
he convinced the colonial authorities of the
potential for sheep farming in South Greenland.
Consequently, he went to the Faroe Islands
to learn about sheep farming, and eventually
introduced sheep into Greenland.
In 1906, the first sheep were transported from
the Faroe Islands to Julianehåb in Greenland,
and by 1914 Amos Egede started his own
farm in Igaliku. In order to spread the farming
activities, a system of “lending” ewes and rams
was introduced, whereby anyone willing to
try breeding and farming could have access to
breeding stock, grow a flock, and later “repay”
the initial provider of the breeding stock. Sheep
rearing remained an important, but small,
The new winners? 53
supplement to the basic activities of fishing
and hunting during this period. However, this
changed in 1924 when Otto Frederiksen settled
in Qassiarsuk and created the first full-time
commercial sheep farm in Greenland.
By 1935, a total of eight different settlements
had been created, with Qassiarsuk and Igaliku
the largest. Secondary farms in places such as
Igaliku Kujalleq developed as a result of rather
large production in the hinterland. During the
next 10 to 15 years, the vocation grew steadily,
and between 1935 and 1950 a substantial
portion of the potentially usable locales for
sheep rearing was being exploited
Since the early 1980s, the number of sheep has stabilized at a reasonably high level of approximately 20,000 ewes.
Photo: Ole G. Jensen ARC-PIC.COM
54 The new winners?
A new focus on farming
After World War II, the focus on modernization
and further industrialization also influenced the
sheep farming business. A significant failing
in the production system has always been the
gathering of sufficient winter fodder. In most
years, it is possible to keep the sheep on the land
during wintertime because the local Föhn winds
keep the snow at manageable levels, enabling
the sheep to access the vegetation below the
snow cover. Occasionally, however, situations
occur when it is necessary to supplement
their natural forage with hay because the
accumulation of snow prevents the animals
from accessing the natural vegetation and this is
reflected in the huge fluctuations in the stock.
With the establishment of Greenland Home Rule
in 1979, a new policy was formulated stipulating
that the development of Greenland’s economy
should be based on the living resources of
the region and should take place with due
respect being paid to the traditional settlement
patterns. For the local sheep farmers headed
by Kaj Egede, the director of the Sheep Farmers
Association, the development of a ­sustainable
farming system in Greenland became a goal.

The first step in this process entailed the analysis

of the potential productivity of the vegetation
resources, in order to deter­mine the sustain­able
basis for the future of sheep farming.

Secondly, the Sheep Farmers Association

planned the layout of a new settlement
structure that would facilitate social interac­tion
among the farmers, including the sharing of
machines and equipment, but at the same time
preventing overgrazing of specific areas.
The third part of the process involved the
development of suitable buildings, given that
keeping the sheep in stables over the winter
was considered the best solution to prevent
overgrazing and flock depletion during the
winter. The final step was to clear the fields of
the winter fodder production and then to erect
the new stables.
New opportunities
Since the early 1980s, the number of sheep
has stabilized at a reasonably high level of
approximately 20,000 ewes. It has been possible
to prevent the fluctuation typically seen during
Local produce in a Nuuk supermarket.
Photo: Ole G. Jensen ARC-PIC.COM
previous years by keeping the sheep in stables
during the winter, and feeding them locally
produced fodder rather than imported feed.
One new opportunity created in connection
with the ongoing changes in climate has been
the introduction of cattle in the sheep farming
areas. At the same time, new crops have been
introduced. It is anticipated that a portion of
the region’s consumption of potatoes will be
produced locally in the future, and that crops
in the more luxuriant vegetation regions in the
south will provide sufficient income to maintain
the farming activities in a region that people
generally consider to be extremely cold and
hostile.

The new winners? 55

 CHAPTER 4
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE POPULATION

· While most of the discussions regarding
changes in the North Atlantic Region are
related to ongoing changes in the climate,
one of the most important factors of change
relates to cyclical population dynamics.
· The traditional renewable resource related
activities – hunting, fishing, agriculture,
forestry – as well as the extraction of non-
renewable resources through mining have
been decisive for human development in the
region. Settlement structure, for example,
has been determined by the availability of
resources.
· Among the younger generation, women, to a
greater extent than men, are looking for new
environments and new types of jobs in the
knowledge economy. Therefore, differences
in gender response to the new challenges
confronting society may become another
issue that will affect the present settlement
structure.
· Faroese leaving the country when there is a
crisis in the fisheries – and returning when
the situation improves – illustrates how the
population reacts to changes in resource
availability by moving in and out of the region.

· However, changes in the economy and

globalization have been restructuring
the fundamental situation in the region,
with more people and a larger share of a
community’s economy related to the service
sectors and the new knowledge economy.
As a consequence, settlement structure is
increasingly determined by the aspirations of
the population, especially the young.

Chapter 4 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE POPULATION 57

P olar bears, glaciers and educated women.
Are they endangered species in the rural
North Atlantic?
It seems that in the very near future, climate
change will be part of the perceived realities
that influence women’s and men’s life choices
regarding where to live, mobility and, ultimately,
the viability of society itself in the rural North
Atlantic regions. Just how close is this future?
What effects are being felt today? What
realities are the women and men of the North
experiencing?
In the main, climate change is seen as an
issue affecting poorer or low-lying countries,
polar bears and perhaps tourism. As yet, it is
not seen as an issue affecting most people’s
everyday lives. Experts are predicting changes
in agriculture, fishing and fish farming (and
settlement patterns as an effect of this). At the
same time, experts agree that some or most of
these changes may actually affect the North
Atlantic Region in a positive manner – warm-
water species will move north, agriculture
may get access to new species and extended
growing seasons.
However, the uncertainties are legion. What will
future biophysical changes in the North Atlantic
Sea region mean for coastal fishing activities,
given the wider social context in which fishing
activities are embedded? How may changing
wind directions, polar lows, storm surges, wave
heights, extreme icing and so on impact the
coastal fisher populations that are getting older
(the average age for Norwegian fishermen,
e.g., is now over 50) and fewer in number every
58 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE POPULATION Chapter 4
year? Will the fact that more than 90% of fishers
are men be a factor in this development? With
increasing gender differences in the settlement
patterns of the region, what happens to
community viability?
“Will the fact that more than
90% of fishers are men be a fac-
tor in this development? With
increasing gender differences in
the settlement patterns of the
region, what happens to com-
munity viability?”
Climate change has the potential to enhance
economic development, but with further
cli¬mate change, the climate in the North
Atlantic is predicted to become more variable
and extreme weather events more frequent and
severe. This situation can severely undermine
economic activity and a sense of security in the
region. Therefore, critical questions must be
asked as to whether the governance institutions
currently in place can create addi¬tional
opportunities in the region that will lead to
increased resilience, flexibility, and the ability to
more easily adapt to change.
Population
Even by Northerner standards, the Arctic is
disjointed, like pieces of a big layer cake that
have been sliced up and served – all in a north-
south orientation. For example, in order to get
from Bodø to Reykjavik – which was a nice trip
in a Viking longship about a thousand years
ago – one has to fly by way of Oslo and often
Copenhagen. All movement in the Nordic
countries, and indeed in the Arctic, seems to
be based on movement from the periphery to
a central hub, and from there to other more
populated centres and then back out to the so-
called periphery again.
The people of these “outlying” regions have
tended to be construed as “others”, their
homelands a wilderness or Ultima Thule,
peopled, if at all, by “oddbodies” definitely
different from the “norm” found in the more
populated centres. Knowledge of the region
is not necessarily very high. A recent survey in
Norway showed that in the capital city, Oslo,
14% believe that there are polar bears living
on mainland Norway, with some even locating
them to Tromsø. This may be partly due to a
postcard that was very popular in the 1970s,
which showed a stuffed polar bear outside a
shop in Tromsø, but even so such a belief sounds
a bit far off. The respondents were Norwegian
university graduates.
The men and women who live out their
everyday lives in Greenland, the Faroe Islands,
Iceland and coastal Norway have certain
common features as populations. The countries
are sparsely populated, with population
densities as low as 0.026 in Greenland, 3 in
Iceland, and 12.3 in Norway. This last figure is
deceptive, however, for in actuality Finnmark
County has a population density of only 1.6,
and Nordland County a density of 6. Population
density tends to increase the further south one
goes.
Chapter 4
Demographic statistics show more similarities.
Generally, across the rural coastal areas people
are aging; the age group when people normally
have children is “missing”, and the educational
levels are lower than in more urban areas. Only
12 of the 88 municipalities in North Norway had
a population increase from 2002 to 2007. Most
municipalities in the region are also marked
by relatively more elderly citizens and fewer of
working age.
The social dimension
In addition to the general indicators of fertility,
it is also necessary to measure the social
environment to explain regional differences
in fertility, migration, and the resulting
demographic patterns.
Simple demographic statistics show that young
adults concentrate in core cities, whereas
families with children settle within commuting
distance from a few main urban centres. A
greater proportion of migrants are single and
most of those who migrate do so before the age
of 35. Migration among families with children is
becoming less frequent. In metropolitan areas
and university regions, the share of “singles” is
higher than in industrial or rural areas, especially
in the childbearing ages.
The fact that the number of rural families has
always been larger than in urban areas is partly
a consequence of a higher share of “singles” in
urban areas, especially in the metropolitan areas.
In most Icelandic municipalities and in larger
cities on the western coast of Norway (e.g.,
Bergen and Stavanger), an extremely young
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE POPULATION 59
working age population exists with many
children. When individuals reach family-
founding age, mobility rapidly decreases and
then slightly increases again after retirement. In
addition, people with higher education are more
mobile than others.
Only 4 out of 10 young women in Norway live
in the community in which they were born.
Between 1970 and 2001, the likelihood of a
female student aged 21-24 migrating more
than doubled in Sweden. At the same time, the
likelihood of migration for an employed young
woman decreased. These results also indicate
that the likelihood of an employed man age
35-44 without higher education migrating
remained almost the same during the same
period referenced above. If that man had a
university degree, however, the likelihood of
migration tripled in 1970, but doubled in 2001,
compared to a man without a university degree.
If a person is married and with children, the
likelihood of migration decreases, but more so in
2001, as compared to 1970.
The gender implications are, however, even
larger. For the Nordic countries, a total of 606
or 42% of the municipalities have a balanced
gender structure, while 526 or 37% have a
female deficit, while only 298 or 21% have a
surplus of women. The regional distribution
is also marked, with northern and rural areas
dominated by a medium to high deficit of
women, while the municipalities with a surplus
of women are predominantly found in the
urban areas and in the more densely populated
areas. The very extreme female deficit areas are
usually those connected to highly specialized
60 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE POPULATION Chapter 4
male activities, primarily mining, and those areas
associated with military installations.
Specifically, the peripheral and semi-peripheral
regions lack women in the 25-39 age group;
this is when people tend to have children and
settle down. In 2007, this population segment
was 7.4% of the population in the most urban
areas of Norway, but only 5% in the rural
municipalities.
Education
A gender perspective of regional development
has to include education and local responses to
the challenges presented by population changes
and the increased mobility the “globalized”
world offers. These patterns are fairly similar
across the North Atlantic Region, but the
“problems” are familiar from rural areas around
the globe.
Basically, the out-migration pattern of
individuals with higher levels of education
differs from that of people with less education.
Highly educated people may have more
incentive to build a career, which can lead to
successful out-migration. On the other hand, the
labor market for those with a higher education
forces people to live or move to places
where they can find work that matches their
qualification. If there are “good” jobs available in
a particular region, the statistical likelihood of
high out-migration decreases in that region.
The question of “better opportunities” elsewhere
as a driver for out-migration has much to do
with the marked changes in education patterns
that have occurred over the last decades, and
this is where gender becomes such a critical
factor. In the early 1990s, women became a
majority group in higher education, but by
the late 1990s all of the Nordic countries were
experiencing this phenomenon.
The Faroe Islands is the outlier in this situation,
mainly because many educated Faroese women
tend to emigrate, predominantly to Denmark, in
order to pursue a career where they can benefit
from the skills they acquired in the Faroes.
This has also been the pattern in Greenland,
although in recent years an increasing number
of positions requiring higher education have
been taken by women.
Employed persons per 4th quarter
by sex and industry
2007, Finnmark
Employed persons by place of residence
Cultural and personal services
Health and social work activities
Education
Public administration and defence
Real estate, business activities
Financial intermediation
Transport and communication
Domestic trade, hotels, restaurants
Construction
Electricity, gas and water supply
Manufacturing, mining and quarrying
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
4000 2000
Persons by sex and level
2007, Finnmark
16 year-olds and above
Unknown or no completed education
Tertiary education, long
Tertiary education, short
Upper secondary education
Basic school level
10 000
Figure 1 (above): Gender division of labour, Finnmark
county 2007.
Figure 2 (below): Gender diversity in education, Finnmark
country 2007.
Gender differences are found in education
statistics, not only in what fields men and
women tend to seek in vocational training,
but throughout the system. In Norway, for
example, women are in the majority in college
and university-level studies (64%); 62% of all
university graduates are women. Women’s
dominance, however, is greater at the lower
levels of tertiary education, as can be seen in
Figure 2 (below) for Finnmark County.
This picture is rapidly changing for Norway as a
whole in the 25-29 age group, however, as more
women than men are now undertaking longer
tertiary education, and 49% of all women have a
tertiary degree.
Shorter tertiary education is associated with
nursing degrees, administrative professions,
teachers and the like, vocations that historically
have been fields chosen by women. In rural
areas, the dominance of women with higher
education is quite evident, particularly in certain
sectors, contributing to the shaping of the future
labor market.
0 2000 4000 6000
Males
Females Labor market changes
Even though the processes of globalization
impact various rural areas differently, a general
pattern has emerged with the restructuring
and decline of the primary industrial sector,
5000 0 5000 10 000
Sources: Statistics Norway the growth of the service sector and increased
emphasis on technology. There is a transition
from goods-producing to service-handling
activities, where services such as education,
health and other professional services become
central in society. These economic and social
Chapter 4 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE POPULATION 61
changes fundamentally affect women and their
job opportunities.
Figure 1 (above) shows how women’s jobs for
the most part centre in a few sectors, while
men are engaged in work across many sectors.
The work force has approximately the same
number of men and women active in working
life, but their respective choice of sector would
appear to be strictly gender-based. Perhaps
more accurately, certain sectors continue to be
gender-specific to women. Where men tend to
work in a number of trades, from the historical
primary industrial sector to cultural services,
women gravitate towards health and social
work, education, public administration and the
domestic hospitality trades.
There are no big surprises here, but it makes
for very different working realities for men and
women. Salaries tend to be higher for men
than for women; full-time employed women in
Norway, for example, make approximately 84%
of what men do in similar positions, but women’s
total gross income is still only 60% of that of
men. In addition, more women in Norway tend
to work part-time, 43% of women work less than
the standard full time (typically 37.5 hours per
week), while only 13% of men work part-time.
Commuting
In the mainstream discussion of climate change
and gender issues, women tend to be seen as
“more climate-friendly” than men, in particular
with regard to transport patterns. In Sweden,
men are credited with 75% of all car journeys,
while women tend to use public transport
62 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE POPULATION Chapter 4
more often. In London, this has even been the
basis for several innovative planning schemes
by the London transport authorities, resulting
in the streamlining of their schedules to meet
women’s needs rather than men’s. These “truths”
nonetheless reflect an urban reality.
In the rural areas of the North Atlantic Region,
dispersed settlements and work-related travel
mean that travel patterns in 2009 are perhaps
more gender-neutral than in other more urban
areas. For example, in the municipality of
Steigen there is an “old-fashioned” settlement
pattern, with villages at the outer ends of the
fjord arms with long roads linking them. A
typical situation involves a drive to work of 30-40
km every morning, stopping in at the daycare
facility half-way.
Women are more likely to move within a
country, but they do not constitute the majority
of commuters. The most mobile and commuter-
savvy people are young to middle-aged men
with high levels of education. The gender
pattern for commuting is rather consistent
across all of the Nordic countries, as men
constitute the overall majority of commuters,
while the gender gap is larger in rural areas and
smaller in urban areas.
This fact suggests that women are
disadvantaged and do not achieve the same
benefits as do men with respect to out-
migration and commuting in general. This
gender cost/benefit difference is due to income
and career choices, where men are more likely to
gain from out-migration than women.
Migration
Migration is strongly concentrated in the
life-cycle stages where a person either starts
or finishes education, enters the labor market
and/or establishes a family. Out-migration
trends seem to imply accelerating depopulation
and ageing in sparsely populated rural and
peripheral regions and in regions lagging in
economic and labor market performance.
On a national level, these trends are similar
throughout the Nordic countries and fairly
consistent over time. One out of every two
migrants is in the 20-35 age group, and
movement remains dominated by a flow
from the peripheral areas to the more urban
regions. This continued out-migration of young
people to both regional and national centres
contributes to a continuing decline in rural
population numbers. In addition, out-migration
statistics show clearly gender-based features.
“One out of every two migrants
is in the 20-35 age group, and
movement remains dominated by
a flow from the peripheral areas
to the more urban regions.”
In the period 1993-2003, the population in
the peripheral areas declined in all the Nordic
countries. In 2003, the peripheral population in
Sweden and Iceland was between four and five
percent less than ten years earlier. In Norway, the
reduction was just above one percent.
Chapter 4
However, the general pattern was a marked
redistribution from the periphery to the more
central areas within the so-called peripheral
regions. Breaking the statistics down by gender
and age-groups makes the picture even more
detailed.
Data from Norway show that people in their
twenties are those who moved most frequently.
Oslo and the larger towns in southern Norway
had the highest net in-migration. The counties
of Sør-Trøndelag, Hordaland and Rogaland also
had a net in-migration of people aged 20-29
years, but those were the only areas aside from
Oslo. There is a net flow of relocations to the
most central parts of the country every year.
Data from Statistics Iceland show that migration
flows towards the capital region of Reykjavik.
In the period 1996-2003, the capital area was
the only region with a positive internal net
in-migration rate. The regions of Vestfjords and
the North West have had a distinct net out-flow
of -27.6 and -14.6, respectively. Both these
regions have experienced high out-migration
rates at least since 1986. For the period 1996-
2000, the Vestfjords had a net out-migration of
-39.5. Comparative research from a number of
northern regions (such as Alaska, Greenland, the
Faroe Islands, Newfoundland and Iceland) seems
to indicate very similar out-migration patterns.
But out-migration has a clear gender dimension.
Compared to males, more females tend to
out-migrate permanently away from their
home community and region, first of all in
search of higher education, then to look for job
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE POPULATION 63
opportunities that fit their qualifications, and
to gain opportunities beyond the traditional
economic activities in their old communities.
Marked regional gender differences have
evolved over the last 10-15 years, characterized
by an out-migration of women especially from
rural areas, and by women representing the
majority in higher education. This development
is not only a ‘northern’ issue. It reflects a pattern
that has emerged in most of the developed
countries, and is associated in many ways with
the gender division of labor.
Ageing
Studies on ageing tend to show that one of the
problems causing age-shifts in the population
is a very low fertility rate. The major cause in
the rural areas of the Nordic countries, however,
is the out-migration of relatively young
persons. A net out-migration of young adults
in the peripheral and rural parts automatically
increases the proportion of the other age
groups. A long-term effect of this is that the
regional population base becomes even more
restricted. This, in turn, leads to an even more
biased age structure within the population,
which can easily become a vicious and self-
fulfilling circle. If the number of women in the
childbearing ages in the overall age structure of
a population is minimal or steadily decreasing,
natural population growth becomes increasingly
problematic.
As the population becomes increasingly
older in certain areas, the labor market will
need to adjust. Even consumer needs and
preferences probably will change in the wake of
64 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE POPULATION
demographic transformation, as certain areas
will be relatively more influenced by the upper
segment of the age-pyramid. Ageing will not,
however, uniformly impact the various regions,
and will require different measures in each
area to address and adapt to their respective
individual demographic changes. This will
require further statistical analysis and research
at a more detailed territorial scale that could be
structured to ease cross-border comparison.
Community response and
regional perspectives
In Ilulissat, the winter sea ice that allowed
hunting, fishing and travel by dogsled is
disappearing, so fishing from the ice flows is
being replaced with fishing from a boat. This
has happened before, e.g., when increasing
temperatures in the 1920s led to a similar
situation, and again during the 1940s when the
Disko Bay experienced years that were almost
free of winter ice. And it will happen again as
climate change again impacts the region.
Change, however, is disruptive. For the older
generation used to a certain way of fishing
and hunting, changes in the ice may be quite
problematic. For a younger generation, however,
this may be seen as an opportunity. They may,
for example, invest in new types of equipment,
or they may look for new opportunities outside
the traditional subsistence activities. Nuuk
is filling up with people moving from the
outlying villages scattered around the island.
The transition to a cash economy still allows
for subsistence hunting, but such activity is
becoming a less and less viable way to live
in a situation where a younger generation is
Chapter 4
Outmigration of the young people, and especially young er women, leaves many villages in the North Atlantic region such as
Alluitsup Paa in South Greenland in a situation with limited perspectives for future development. Photo: Sigrid Rasmussen

continually looking for new alternatives outside
the traditional sector. The young people of
Greenland are living in a world where the people
who live in the rural areas tend to want the same
benefits of modern living that city-dwellers have
gained.
One example is perinatal referral in Greenland.
In 1999, less than 10% of the pregnant women
were referred to the Nuuk referral hospital
for labor. In 2002, new perinatal guidelines
came into effect, and now some 20-30% of all
pregnant women in Greenland are referred to
Nuuk. In fact, in 2006 24% of Greenlandic births
took place in Nuuk. What impact will this have
on young families?
For many areas experiencing depopulation,
demographic change has become a vicious
circle that eventually erodes the prerequisites for
a community’s future growth and development.
So what measures are being demanded of local
authorities?

Chapter 4 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE POPULATION 65

Economic and social change, as well as climate
change, are shaping the demands made of
local, regional and even national authorities.
Physically, the changes are visible in the cultural
landscape; a combination of economic, social
and climate change can, for example, be seen in
the shift away from sheep and goat pasturage to
untended “nature” that has changed the face of
much of the rural north in the past century.
There are, however, marked differences between
the Nordic countries in this respect. Similarities
exist between Sweden, Denmark and southern
Finland, while northern Finland and Norway
seem to have many features in common.
Even though women are 50.5% of the total
population in the Nordic countries, and have a
longer life expectancy (82 years compared to 77
for men), this fact is hidden by the dominance of
women in the densely populated areas.
Thus, national averages do not provide a
sufficient perspective to fully understand the
ongoing processes, and subsequently the
relevant policies needed to cope with these
changes.
Out-migration trends in sparsely populated rural
and peripheral regions and in regions lagging
in economic and labor market performance
seem to imply 1) accelerating women-to-men
imbalances, 2) increasing depopulation and 3)
a population distribution that is dominated by
older people.
Policymakers will need to recognize the regional
changes taking place in the labor supply and the
66 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE POPULATION Chapter 4
actual characteristics of the labor force available
in the different regions.
While socioeconomic and educational factors
remain the main contributors to current
out-migration patterns, life-expectancy
and mortality, regional differences may be
exacerbated, especially if social differences are
polarized over time. It is important to keep
in mind, when discussing the North Atlantic
Region, the extent to which ‘good’ national
figures actually disguise marked regional
differences.
New opportunities
Climate change is the buzzword these days,
not least on the Northern conference circuit.
When it comes to the North, it seems that
climate change has the potential to produce
new opportunities and enhance economic
development. Changes in fish migratory
patterns and availability have been met with
adaptation and technological innovation,
the Northern Sea Route opens up transport
possibilities, etc. Northern peoples are rightly
famous for their resilience and adaptability;
their innovative capabilities have so far proved
sufficient.
With further climate change, the climate in the
Arctic is predicted to become more variable
and extreme weather events more frequent and
severe, all of which can undermine economic
activities. With more people moving away,
resources become scarce and reduced services
may make more people move, creating a vicious
circle.
The extent of vulnerability and resilience to
climate change and social change depends
not only on cultural aspects and ecosystem
diversity, but also on the political, legal and
institutional rules that govern socioeconomic
systems and socio-ecological systems. Thus, it
seems particularly important that attention be
given to the management of resources and to
the effectiveness of governance institutions, and
critical questions must be asked as to whether
they can create addi¬tional opportunities to
increase resilience, flexibility and the ability to
deal with change.
Creating education possibilities and a chance for
gainful employment for young people in their
own home regions is therefore crucial. “Young
people need to travel out to seek education, it
is our job in the rural communities to get them
back by having something to offer them”, former
president of the Sámediggi Sven-Roald Nystø
has said.
Depending on what the population structure
looks like in each and every region, the
implications of demographic changes will
differ. Thus far most studies have only looked
at national level population data, while existing
regional and local diversity is essentially ignored.
Also, awareness of women’s participation
in decision-making processes and forums is
paramount because they (ideally) make up half
the population of these regions. Gender is not
only a very important regional characteristic,
the reproduction of the population requires
a balance in the gender ratio. On the other
hand, gender has become an important factor
Chapter 4
in higher education and a highly educated
workforce has rapidly become a key competitive
factor in the new knowledge economy.
Relatively little knowledge exists regarding
the impact ageing, labor movement and
fertility have on regional development. Gender
awareness and statistical knowledge helps us
identify regions that seem to cope better with
the challenges, and regions that will have to
take new policy measures in order to be able
to manage in the future. The current situation
is not sustainable from a social perspective,
and challenges the future well-being of rural
communities to an even larger degree than does
climate change.
By LINDIS SLOAN
Sources used in connection with this chapter include Arctic
Human Development Report, 2004. Akureyri: Stefansson
Arctic Institute | Solveig Glomsrød and Iulie Aslaksen,
2006, The Economy of the North. Statistisk sentralbyrå •
Statistics Norway, Oslo–Kongsvinger | Richard Langlais,
Per Francke, Johan Nilsson & Fredrik Ernborg: ”Turning
Point on Climate Change? Emergent Municipal Response in
Sweden: Pilot Study”. Nordregio, Stockholm, 2007 | Daniel
Rauhut, Rasmus Rasmussen, Johanna Roto, Per Francke &
Sara Östberg: “The Demographic Challenge to the Nordic
Countries”. Nordregio, Stockholm, 2008
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE POPULATION 67
 Faroese Towns Respond to Change
Faroe
Islands
The North Atlantic Region is characterized by
dependency on available natural resources,
especially on ocean fisheries. The consequences
of resource depletion or natural environmental
change are important issues that the region
must address.
Often when fisheries decline, out-migration
becomes one of the first options identified
by individuals and families alike as a viable
strategy for survival. However, out-migration
may solve the problem for this small cohort,
but at the same time it reduces options for the
communities it leaves behind.
This description fits very well the situation
experienced in the Faroe Islands during the late
1980s and the beginning of the 1990s. During
the 1970s, successful skippers accumulated
capital and invested in new filleting factories,
and a very successful fisheries and fishing
industry was established. Shortly thereafter, the
country experienced a drastic decline in the local
fisheries caused by a combination of overfishing
and environmental variation. Before this crisis
in the fishing industry plunged the country into
economic chaos, major (over) investment in new
trawlers and processing facilities had resulted in
a very high level of fishing effort, and a booming
economy.
68 Faroese Towns Respond to Change
The take-off
When the fisheries resource declined, it became
quite clear that the sector no longer was able to
support the same number of people. Without
any alternatives, many saw out-migration or
emigration as their only options. Even attempts
to look for alternatives, such as alternative
fisheries or diversification to other species, did
not succeed.
The important fishery sector (fish make up ca.
90% of total export) not only collapsed, but,
due to over-investment in new technology (e.g.,
newer vessels), the major Faroese banks went
bankrupt and foreign debt skyrocketed. Most
of the many fish processing plants were closed
and the Faroese economy was put under Danish
administration, resulting in the concentration
of most fish processing plants in one company,
United Seafood. During these years, the
population of the Faroe Islands declined from
around 48,000 to 42,000 due to net emigration.
As shown on the graph below, in general, the
Faroese population had been consistently
growing since the 1970s because of a high
birth rate and a low death rate. Since the mid-
1970s, there was also a steady balance between
immigration and emigration. However, when the
first signs of crisis appeared in the late 1980s,
marked changes took place.
When the crisis really hit in 1990, a dramatic
increase in emigration appeared simultaneously
with a decline in immigration. After a couple
of years, which included negotiations with the
Danish government as to how to secure the
economy, the total chaotic situation resulted
in a massive emigration beginning in 1992
and peaking in 1994, and then slowing until it
reached its initial level around 2000.
Where did they go?
Most of the people leaving the Faroe Islands
went to Denmark. Partly because they had
relatives there who could provide them with a
much-needed network, e.g., for job searches.
Others, who had connections to the local
Faroese fishing industry, saw an opportunity
to look for similar work in Denmark. The
fisheries town of Esbjerg in southwest Jutland,
for example, became the preferred place to
go, again because the Faroese already had a
network there. Some had received professional
training from the local fisheries college there,
and the region had other attractions as well.
And who returned?
While living in Denmark, many young Faroese
created enduring ties to their new home
communities in Denmark, so for the most part
it was the older age groups who returned.
Consequently, the long-term result has been
an extra contribution to the ageing of the
population, as well as adding to the net
emigration of young people, especially women.
Figure: Migration response to the resource crises in the
Faroe Islands. Figure 1: Immigration, Emigration, Netmigra-
tion and total population from 1970 to 2008

% change Total population

8.0 60000

7.0

6.0 50000
5.0

4.0
40000
3.0

2.0
30000
1.0

0.0
20000
-1.0

-2.0 Immigration
Emigration
-3.0 10000
Netmigration
-4.0 Population 31. Dec

-5.0 0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Chapter 7 Faroese
ClimateTowns Respond
change to Change 69 69
– and Transportation
Klaksvík is the major fisheries town in the Faroe Islands. Photo: Árni Conradsson
Strategies for the reconstruction
A reconstruction of the fisheries was initiated
during the crisis. Several fish processing plants
were merged, several closed, and United
Seafood became the single largest industry in
the country. The national restructuring policy
was supervised by the Danish authorities,
and as a part of the reconstruction process
many trawlers were sold, some of them to
private owners. A very slow recovery of sectors
within the fishing industry has resulted in the
return of some of the people who emigrated.
70 Faroese Towns Respond to Change
However, the slow pace of reconstruction did
not bring the population back totally. Due to
local differences in handling the consequences
of the crisis, the outcome differed regionally
and illustrates the complexity of the problems
created by the crisis.
Vágur
In Vágur on the southern island of Suðuroy, for
example, the closure of the local fish processing
plant meant an overnight loss of 450 out of
800 jobs in the village, as seamen and shipyard
workers were also affected. Many people initially industry.
left the island, but today the total workforce
has risen to a total of 700, due to new jobs that
have been created in six new smaller salt fish
processing plants, where fishermen can directly
land their fish. Local political involvement
has been crucial for the community, and local
entrepreneurship, based on knowledge about
and relations to specific markets for salt fish on
the European Continent, has been an important
contribution to a relatively positive outcome.
The region to this day, however, is still plagued
by the emigration of young people and this
creates an ongoing demographic challenge.

Klaksvík The Faroese economy still remains heavily dependet on the

To the north in Klaksvík, the major fish success of a modern fishing fleet
processing plant managed to stay independent Photo: John D. Olsen
and outside of United Seafood and the
restructuring plans fashioned by the Danish
authorities. This was possible because of
extensive local ownership and capital.
Ownership extended to the local savings
bank, the local trade union, the two local men
managing the new firm, as well as 598 local
individual shareholders who controlled 17%
of the total capital stock. The shareholders and
management pursued a business strategy of
focusing on specialized products and building
relationships with important customers.
However, this firm went bankrupt in late 2008 The case has been based on the following texts: Rasmus
in the wake of the international financial crisis. Ole Rasmussen and Johanna Roto, 2009 Demographic
A reorganized company emerged in September challenges to the NORA Region. An OECD expert report
2009 with almost a similar setup and local prepared in connection with the NORA-initiated OECD
ownership. The new owners are mainly two Review of the region | Gestur Hovgaard, 2002, Coping
large companies that own several trawlers, Strategies and Regional Policies – Social Capital in
but also a local fund, the local trade union and the Nordic Peripheries – Country report: Faroe Islands.
some smaller companies related to the fishing Nordregio Working Paper 2002:8

Faroese Towns Respond to Change 71

 CHAPTER 5
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LIVING RESOURCES
· Living resources are still crucial for the North
Atlantic region.
· In fisheries, changes in the stocks are
determined by the primary production in the
sea, and this again is determined by climate
and sea temperatures.
· Pelagic fish are highly mobile and stocks
therefore quickly respond to change by
moving to more favourable locations. The
stock location may change from one year to
the next. The demersal fish living on or near
the bottom of the sea are generally slower to
respond to changes, but sudden changes in
temperature regimes may result in a sudden
“crash” in the stock, where human activities
may add to the severity of the situation.
In both cases, the stocks are sensitive to
changes in temperature, as well as other
environmental factors.
· On land, changes are very much related to
land use practices. When environmental
factors change the land use practice,
adjustments need to be made, but these
adapations take time.
Chapter 5
· Ongoing changes in the temperature impact
which crops can be grown, what kinds of
pests will influence crop production, what
precipitation changes might impact the
region, and thus the types of drainage
systems required, and generally what kind of
tilling practices would be adequate.
· Both land and sea-based activities impact
the climate. On land, marked changes in
land use and tilling practices lead to the
release of greenhouse gases. On the sea,
given the high level of energy consumption
in the fisheries, especially in the large scale
fisheries, increased activity in the region will
contribute to an increase in greenhouse gas
release.
· Recent developments in the Sami reindeer
industry illustrate how changes in the
vegetation caused by climate change affect the
traditional utilization of living resources in the
North Atlantic Region.
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LIVING RESOURCES 73
T he North Atlantic Region has always been
closely connected to the living resources in
the region as the basis for existence and these
resources have been exploited for centuries.
The small and highly dispersed population only
offers small markets and a few manufacturing
opportunities within the region. Therefore,
relations with other regions have always been
crucial. A constant focal point in these relations
has been the living resources from the sea, as
well as from the land.
The region has been approached from countries
worldwide – and products from the living
resources have been exported to world markets.
The ocean dominates the culture and history
of the region, and even today the economy
is heavily dependent on the exploitation of
the natural living resources. As the natural
environment is, however, vulnerable in many
areas, special attention needs to be paid to the
role of the environment.
Fisheries influenced by climate
“Fish populations are heavily influenced by
ocean climate. The effect of environmental
conditions on fish population biology is crucial
in defining the constraints under which fisheries
may safely operate in the long term. In order to
pursue effective management, it is necessary
to be able to partition the variability in fish
populations into environmental and fisheries
effects.”
This statement was made to a symposium in
Bergen, Norway in 2004 arranged by ICES, The
74 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LIVING RESOURCES Chapter 5
International Commission for the Exploration
of the Sea, the oldest and most prestigious
organization regarding fisheries research. In
recognition of the possible role climate change
might have on future fisheries, the symposium
looked into the most critical aspects of climate
change and some of the main contributions of
the symposium are outlined below.
Zooplankton
Starting at a lower level in the food chain,
zooplankton plays a key role in making
primary production available to fish and higher
trophic levels. Fish integrate variations in their
environment, however, over larger space and
time scales than zooplankton. This is due to their
longer life span.
Hence, at the space and time scales appropriate
to fish, the trophic transfer efficiency of
zooplankton depends not only on physiological
properties, but also on individual species
population dynamics. The life cycles of key
zooplankton species need to be synchronized
with both the seasonality of primary and micro-
zooplankton production, and the reproductive
and spatial patterns of fish predating on
plankton. Variability in climate, however, may
disrupt these linkages causing indirect and
difficult to diagnose impacts on fish.
Consequently, mechanisms that regulate the
ecosystem provide a link between the annual
primary production on the continental shelf and
the production of demersal fish, which implies
that fish production is strongly enhanced
in years with a high primary production.
In seasonal environments, one of the main
challenges for breeding individuals is to
match food supply to breeding and offspring
requirements.
However, prey availability depends on a variety
of physical factors and food-chain interactions
that are affected by climate variation. In this
connection, it is important to note that prey
availability and predator breeding may not
depend on the same environmental conditions,
which could lead to a mismatch between
requirement and availability.
Fish stock
Several contributions to the symposium
emphasized that climate change is predicted
to cause poleward shifts in species ranges,
and such shifts have been documented across
a variety of species. In the North Atlantic, the
richness of fish species declines with latitude
because of temperature, and by depth because
of light and productivity of food. In addition,
most species exhibit changes in distribution and
migration over time scales varying from very
long to short-term.
Among the major determinants of these
changes at both long and short-term scales
are ocean environment and climate variability,
including key factors such as temperature,
currents, and food availability, but also human
activity, such as fishing and the disturbing of
important environmental factors. It is not these
factors alone, however, that are critical, but the
way species react to change. Species reaction to
change has been divided into three groups:
Chapter 5
· Fish that are fast changers, characterized by
quick reaction times to most parameters.
This group includes, e.g., herring.
· Fish that are slow changers and react more
slowly. This group includes, e.g., cod.
· Fish that do not react at all.
Herring and capelin
As pointed out by Huse, Ottersen and Slotte,
herring and capelin are pelagic fish that
perform long distance migrations between
feeding, overwintering and spawning locations.
Analyses of the migration patterns of the
abundant populations in the Norwegian and
Barents Seas show that they are adapted to
the considerable variability in the physical and
biological characteristics of these regions. The
observed geographical distributions of the
stocks are related to temperature and ice edge
distributions.
Research indicates that this is likely to have a
strong impact on the distribution of capelin and
that capelin responses to climate change are
related to whether the capelin will maintain its
spawning ground along the coast of northern
Norway and northwestern Russia and abandon
the association with the marginal ice zone in
summer, or vice versa.
It is expected that, in general, the ice cover in
the Norwegian Sea is likely to decrease and
shift northwards. The position of the Arctic
front north of Iceland in the Norwegian Sea is
linked to topography and thus is likely to be
maintained. Consequently, capelin migrations
are expected to be more affected by a
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LIVING RESOURCES 75
permanent change in the climate than herring
migrations.
It is also expected that climate change will
influence the exploitation of local herring
stocks in two ways. One, climate change will
affect the ecology of the stocks and change
their productivity, and two, as herring are a
north temperate species, climate change may
affect the stocks in the southern latitudinal
range. Feeding migration patterns are also at
risk from changes in zooplankton production
and distribution, just as recruitment and its
monitoring are at risk from changing water
movements.
It is clear that climate changes in the Norwegian
Sea during the last decade strongly affected the
Norwegian spring spawning-feeding migrations
of the herring in the period of their abundance
recovery after a major stock collapse in the
late 1960s. Despite the rebuilding of a herring
stock since the mid-1990s to a level equal to
that of the 1950-1960s, the fish did not migrate
for feeding to the southwestern part of the
Norwegian Sea and in winter to the traditional
area east of Iceland. One explanation for this was
the very low water temperature in the central
and southwestern parts of the Norwegian Sea in
1993-2002.
Cod
The expected responses of the cod stocks
throughout the North Atlantic to future climate
scenarios are that the cod will likely spread
northward along the coasts of Greenland and
Labrador, and as Ken Drinkwater points out,
they will occupy larger areas of the Barents Sea
76 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LIVING RESOURCES Chapter 5
and even extend onto some of the continental
shelves of the Arctic Ocean. Growth rates of
many of the stocks will increase with increasing
temperatures. A key question in this connection,
however, is the dependency of cod on their prey
and predators.
The occurrence of cod (Gadus morhua) in
West Greenland waters has always been of a
periodic character, as a result of variation in
the marine environment. Accompanied by
exceptional warm conditions, cod settled in
East and southern West Greenland waters in
the early 1920s where they gradually spread
northwards and in the late 1930s were found
as far north as 73° N. In the 1950s and 1960s,
a self-sustaining offshore cod population
existed, but the spawning stock, as well as the
temperature, decreased dramatically in the late
1960s. Subsequently, recruitment was mainly
dependent on larval drift from Iceland until
the early 1990s when the offshore cod stock
disappeared from West Greenland waters.
There are documented changes along West
Greenland, northern Canada, Iceland and
northern Europe, showing how migration
patterns of the “warm water” species changed
with earlier arrivals and later departures into
more northern regions. Besides temperature,
depth, salinity and oxygen are among the
decisive factors. Coupled with food availability
and suitable spawning grounds, the factors
determine the large-scale distribution patterns
of cod. Many cod stocks make seasonal
migrations over long distances and occupy
different habitats during spawning, feeding
and overwintering periods, while other stocks
display only minor seasonal shifts. Year-to-year
variability in distribution patterns may also be
pronounced.
Other researchers participating in the
symposium observed that quite dramatic
changes caused by the increasing inflow of
Atlantic waters in recent years have occurred in
the distribution of fish stocks in Icelandic waters,
and it is generally accepted that changes in
climate will have severe consequences for the
fisheries. In some cases, however, it is arguable
to what degree changes in distribution are
caused by changes in the environment and to
what degree by fishery dependent effects.
Fisheries contributing to climate
change
While options for the fisheries are affected by
climate change, the fisheries also have an impact
on climate change, as the emissions of CO2 from
the fishing fleet are not insignificant.
According to calculations from Norway, CO2
emissions have increased per catch unit. The
calculations show that CO2 emissions from the
Norwegian fishing fleet have been between 1.2
and 1.5 million tonnes during the past 25 years,
and that the fishing fleet is responsible for 2.5%
of Norway’s CO2 emissions. This means that
emissions from the fishing fleet are comparable
to the emissions from Norway’s domestic air
traffic.
At the same time, it is clear that there are
differences in fuel consumption between the
Chapter 5
different fleet groups. Not only in totals for
different fleet segments, but also relative to the
amount of CO2 generated per kilo of fish taken.
The trawling fleet, for example, consumes the
most fuel per kilo of cod taken, while the small
coastal fishing vessels are more than five times
more fuel-efficient.
At the same time, it is clear that there are
differences in fuel consumption between the
different fleet groups, not only in the totals for
the different fleet segments, but also relative
to the amount of CO2 generated per kilo of fish
taken. The trawl fleet, for example, consumes
the most fuel per kilo of cod taken, while the
small coastal fishing vessels are more than five
times more fuel-efficient.
Moreover, there is a positive development in
that a decline in fuel consumption per cod in all
fleet groups has been observed. This is partly
due to fuel prices and competition on the world
market. Calculations show that in 2006 shrimp
trawlers spent 39% of their catch income on
fuel, while fuel tax amounted to less than 20%
for vessels in the bottom-trawling cod fishery. In
general, fuel costs are estimated to be as much
as 36% of the value of landings and can mean
operating at a loss.
The calculations above are from Norway, but the
fleet structure and energy consumption patterns
are more or less identical throughout the West
Nordic Region. National discussions are looking
into different options for improvements, and
new EU regulations are pointing to the need
to look for more energy efficient approaches in
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LIVING RESOURCES 77
the various fisheries. Discussions, for instance,
revolve around changing fishing gear, for
the first time aiming at a switch to a less fuel-
intensive gear, the purchase of equipment to
improve fuel efficiency, and the replacement
of engines with newer engines that are either
of equal power, but more fuel efficient, or less
powerful, or even a combination of both.
“Global warming may encour-
age the expansion of agricultural
activities into regions now occu-
pied by, e.g., forests, particularly
at mid- and high-latitudes….
The potential impact of present
climate change may become
significant, but the direction
of change may well depend on
which drivers become decisive.”
Future initiatives are urgently needed, aimed
at optimizing, validating and demonstrating
new concepts and new technologies that
will enable energy savings to be realized.
These might include the design of more fuel-
efficient fishing gear and machines, renewable
energy generation and the development and
demonstration of new types of biofuels that may
be applicable for the fisheries.
Future initiatives are highly needed, aimed
at optimising, validating and demonstrating
new concepts and new technologies that
will enable energy savings to be realized.
These might include the design of more fuel-
78 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LIVING RESOURCES Chapter 5
efficient fishing gear and machines, renewable
energy generation and the development and
demonstration of new types of biofuels that may
be applicable for the fisheries.
Land use influenced by climate
The record of northern agriculture shows that
sustainability and resilience are often closely
associated. Economic systems that are successful
over centuries may not be sustainable on a
millennial scale, if they cannot adapt politically,
economically, and ecologically when conditions
change. This becomes quite clear when looking
into the history of the Little Ice Age between
1300 and 1850. The climate during this period
showed abruptly shifting climate regimes and
the more severe winters had a profound impact
on agriculture.
Even with temperature deviations of around
1° C below the present mean, Europe
experienced profound changes. The Baltic Sea
froze over, as did most of the rivers in Europe.
As a consequence of the prolonged winters,
the growing season was reduced by several
weeks, enough to result in widespread crop
failure, famine, and in some regions population
decline. Storms and flooding increased, and in
mountainous regions the tree line and snowline
dropped. Contemporary records, such as
landscape paintings, illustrate how the glaciers
advanced.
The North Atlantic Region was severely hit.
Iceland experienced an advance of ice that
today is far to the north, resulting in situations
where it became difficult to bring a ship
ashore. Greenland became more or less
inaccessible, and the lack of the trading linkages
back to Norway contributed to the relatively
abrupt abandonment of Norse settlements
in Greenland. Moreover, in large parts of the
region, grain became impossible to grow and
even hay crops failed.
Global warming may encourage the expansion
of agricultural activities into regions now
occupied by, e.g., forests, particularly at mid- and
high-latitudes. Forced encroachment of this sort
may thwart the processes of natural selection
of climatically adapted native crops and other
species. The potential impact of present climate
change may become significant, but the
direction of change may well depend on which
drivers become decisive:
Junction of cold and warm air
The North Atlantic region is located at the
junction of cold and warm air and ocean
currents. Due to this, possible changes to
current systems and the tracks taken by low
pressure zones could have very significant
effects on the region. According to the
predictions regarding changes within the next
decades, summers are likely to become warmer
by an average of approximately 0.25° C per
decade. In winter, the expected change may
be on average around 0.35° C. While warming
is most likely during the next century, cooling
as a result of changes in ocean currents remains
a possibility due to the effects of the Thermo-
Haline Conveyor Belt.
In agriculture, even yearly changes in
temperature may lead to substantial variation in
Chapter 5
agricultural yields, including hay for livestock. It
has been estimated that a 1° C change in annual
temperature can alter hay production by 20%
in the most fertile regions. However, due to
the character of the environment, even small
temperature changes in the future could affect
the thin balance between positive and negative
consequences.
Among the important effects of high
temperature is accelerated physiological
development, resulting in hastened maturation
and reduced yield. Another issue in connection
with changes in the climate is the question
of availability and an excess of water. Higher
temperatures lead to a need for more water
because of increased evapo-transpiration.
Anticipated climate change will modify rainfall,
evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage,
and the occurrence of stress during growth will
potentially become harmful to most crops, as
well as grazing areas.
As emphasized by Cynthia Rosenzweig and
Daniel Hillel, climate change potentially
presents both benefits and drawbacks for crop
production. Associated climatic effects, such
as higher temperatures, changes in rainfall and
soil moisture, and increased frequencies of
extreme meteorological events, could either
enhance or negate potentially beneficial
effects. The increase of the CO2 content in the
atmosphere may have a positive influence on
photosynthesis, thereby bettering the utilization
of sunlight energy to convert carbon dioxide
into plant material. At the same time, global
warming will extend the length of the potential
growing season, allowing earlier planting of
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LIVING RESOURCES 79
crops in the spring, earlier maturation and
harvesting. As a consequence, crop-producing
areas may expand further north, although yields
in higher latitudes will likely be lower due to the
less fertile soils in the region.
Fertile soils
Another issue pointed out by Rosenzweig and
Hillel is that the development of fertile soils
takes centuries and even millennia to evolve.
One important process is the release of nitrogen
through the action of bacteria in the soil into a
form that is biologically suitable for plants. This
process of nitrogen fixation is associated with
greater root development. Nitrogen fixation
increases with temperature and is predicted to
increase with higher CO2 concentrations. The
process, however, is not a one-way path. Higher
air temperatures may have a negative effect
on soil development, as warmer conditions are
likely to speed the natural decomposition of
organic matter and increase the rates of other
soil processes that affect fertility.
Higher temperatures may increase the risk
of drier soil conditions, which will lead to
the suppression of both root growth and the
decomposition of organic matter, and will
increase the vulnerability of the soil to wind
erosion, especially if winds intensify.
On the other hand, an expected increase in
rainfall may result in more intense rainfall, and
such extreme precipitation events add to the
risk of increased soil erosion. The lowland areas,
however, may experience an excess of water,
leading to flooding, very often occurring in areas
where hay and crop production are situated. In
80 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LIVING RESOURCES Chapter 5
order to regulate the excess of water flow, and
expansion of existing drainage systems may be
needed.
With warmer weather comes more favorable
conditions for insect pests and fungi, and
longer growing seasons will enable the spread
of both insects and other pests. Warmer
winter temperatures may also allow larvae to
overwinter in areas where they are now limited
by cold, just as warmer winters enable more
larvae to overwinter.
What is feared by many is the possible intrusion
of unwanted plants. This, combined with
an increase in pest infestations, may lead to
the greater use of chemical pesticides and
herbicides.
Agriculture contributing to
climate change
The role of climate as a determinant of
agriculture has long been recognized. During
the last decade, the reciprocal effect has become
more obvious, with the role of agriculture as a
potential contributor to climate change.
Clearing tundra and forests for fields, burning
crop residues, increasing drainage activities
and expanding the herds of sheep, cattle and
other ruminants and fertilizing with nitrogen, all
release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
The main gases emitted are CO2, CH4, and N2O.
From about 1700 to 1900, the clearing of north-
ern hemisphere forests for agriculture was the
largest agent of change in the carbon cycle.

Emissions of greenhouse gases from agricultural
sources are likely to increase in the years ahead due to
the increased activities in the region
Photo: Ólavur Frederiksen
Emissions from agricultural sources are believed
to account for some 15% of today’s anthropo-
genic greenhouse gas emissions, while land use
changes, often made for agricultural purposes,
Chapter 5
including the destruction of wetlands, contrib-
ute another 8% or so to the total.
Agriculture ranks third, after energy consump-
tion (which is also in part agricultural) and
chlorofluorocarbon production, as a contributor
to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Most of this,
of course, is generated in warmer environments.
Agriculture, therefore, ranks high as a
contributor to climate change and the potential
impact of emissions from the North is not to be
neglected, as emissions of greenhouse gases
from agricultural sources are likely to increase in
the years ahead due to the increased activities
in the region. This imposes a significant task
upon agricultural researchers to devise ways to
continue to improve yields, while at the same
time, mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.
As background for this chapter, the following sources have
been used: ICES Symposium: The Influence of Climate
Change on North Atlantic Fish Stocks. Bergen, Norway
11-14 May 2004. The following contributions from the
symposium have been used: Mike Heath: Zooplankton
and the link between climate variability and fish | Keynote
Address Geir Huse, Geir Ottersen and Aril Slotte: Migration
patterns of herring and capelin related to climate change
| Ken Drinkwater: The response of Atlantic cod (Gadus
morhua) to future climate change | Gunnar Album, 2008,
Fuel subsidies and CO2 emissions in the fishing fleet. Memo,
Nores Naturvernsforening - Friends of the Earth, Norway,
May 2008 | Cynthia Rosenzweig and Daniel Hillel,1995,
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and
Food Supply. Consequences Vol 1, No. 2, Summer 1995. U.S.
Global Change Research Information Office.
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LIVING RESOURCES 81
 Sámi Reindeer Industry
Challenged by the Climate
Sámi reindeer herding is practiced in Norway,
Sweden, Finland and Russia, and has not only
had a long history, but also is still important as
a pastoral livelihood for northern indigenous
peoples. As the activity has been practiced for
many generations, it has developed a large
repertoire of coping strategies to manage
change in the natural and social environments.
As emphasized by Riseth, Lie, Holst, Karlsen,
and Tømmervik, the reindeer-herding Sámi
have been exposed to major changes, such as
political decrees leading to the establishment
and closure of national borders, as well as
technological and economic changes. These
changes often required dramatic adaptation,
including fundamental changes in land-
use patterns. New challenges, however, are
appearing and today ongoing climate change
is affecting Sámi reindeer herding in many
ways, both directly and indirectly, in a complex
pattern of interactions that, to some extent, are
uncertain and contradictory. Furthermore, they
vary over climate zones, altitude and latitude.
An overview of the most important changes
that have been identified by the authors will
demonstrated this complexity. The overview
also will look at the contemporary challenges
in reindeer herding and how they might be
exacerbated by ongoing changes in climate
observed over the last few decades.
82 Sámi Reindeer Industry Challenged by the Climate
Irregular winters
According to the Research Centre Norut,
the reindeer industry has been exposed to a
gradually milder climate, as well as dramatic
climate fluctuations year-on-year during the
last 60 years. Some of the factors generating
fluctuations are: heavy insect harassment due
to early summers; abandonment of calves when
female reindeer try to escape the insects in
warm summers; cold summers and autumns
when female reindeer do not go into heat
and are therefore not impregnated. The most
important factor, however, is connected to
irregular winter seasons, for instance, when
the formation of ice layers in early winter block
access to the lichen pastures for the whole
or at least long periods of the winter. This
situation typically appears during a melting
period followed by a very cold period, and has
happened several times during the last 50-60
years. Great losses of reindeer have been an
unfortunate outcome.
The authors note that situations differ between
regions. Within Norway, the reindeer industry
can broadly be divided into three regions by
climate zone and migration patterns. One
region is in the very north (Finnmark) with
favourable continental winter areas. This is
connected to a second region to the south
extending into mid-Norway (Sør-Trøndelag/
 Hedmark). The other region (Nord-Trøndelag, herders have handled comparable situations in
Nordland, Troms) is less favourable because of the past. These experiences may provide good
the oceanic influence on the winter pastures. guidelines for contemporary actions.

Not straightforward Scenarios used by the authors regarding

The challenges ahead are the result of a variety
of changes and will differ from place to place
and over time. As a consequence, the impact
of change will be difficult to assess with
precision and certainty. Generalities are always
insufficient to explain complex issues. Moreover,
the assessment of the capacities of the reindeer
industry to handle these challenges is not
straightforward, and, according to the authors,
will require
 ongoing study into how reindeer

changes in climate predict an average rise in
temperature between 2 and 4˚ C for the coming
century. In addition, expectations regarding
autumn and winter increases are somewhat
higher than those for spring and summer, and
are also accompanied by increased precipitation.
Based on this, Riseth, Lie, Holst, Karlsen, and
Tømmervik have outlined the following table
showing he expected consequences of these
changes:

Change Effect Consequence

Increased vegetation
Early spring Increased slaughter weights
biomass
Increased insect
Reduced slaughter weights
harassment and diseases

Warmer summers Lower summer pasture

Reduced snowbeds and quality
snowdrifts Reduced insect escapement
and breeding sites
Reduced summer pasture
capacities
Warmer summers and Shrub increase and
prolonged growth seasons elevated timberline Reduced winter pasture
potentials in continental
areas
Increased instability of
Increased frequency of
Blocked access to pastures winter pasture access in
freeze-thaw cycles
continental areas
Increased winter pasture
Decrease in snow cover
Increased access to pastures capacities in oceanic winter
thickness and duration
areas

Sámi Reindeer Industry Challenged by the Climate 83


One may see the pattern shown in the Table
to be a somewhat contradictory pattern, and
so do the authors. The group, however, point
to four main probable climate change effects
for the Sámi reindeer industry in Norway, two
related to expected changes in summer and
fall temperature, and two related to expected
changes in winter temperature. The outcome is
listed below:
Increased spring, summer and fall temperatures
will tend to impose:
1 Gradual vegetation change from open
land to shrub land, elevation of the timber
line, and the reduction of natural reindeer
(mainly summer) pasture land in subalpine
and low alpine areas.
2 The growing season will be prolonged and
plant production increased. Accordingly,
there will be a change in the pasture balance
between summer and winter pastures.
Increased average winter temperatures
will promote two main effects on pasture
accessibility that are regionally different:
3 Continental areas will have more unstable
winters, mainly because of more frequent
84 Sámi Reindeer Industry Challenged by the Climate
The reindeer roundup begins in late autumn, early winter
and is among the most important activities of the year for
reindeer herders when the animals are culled for slaughter
Photos: Bjørn Erik Olsen
melt-freeze cycles and blocked pasture
access more often than today.
4 In the more oceanic influenced reindeer
herding areas, higher temperatures will
reduce the extent and thickness of snow
and ice cover, and subsequently the winter
pasture availability may be somewhat
improved.
Regional differences
As emphasized earlier by the authors, the
actual effects and the required adaptations
reindeer herders will be forced to make will
differ regionally. A high density of reindeer
and scarcity of alternative pasture land are
characteristics of the continental areas in the
north and south. In areas in the the north with
access to coastal summer pastures, an increased
growing season will provide opportunities for
prolonged use of the pastures, and thereby limit
the stays in the continental winter pastures. In
some regions, where coastal winter pastures
have not been available previously this may
become an option. In the mid-areas, where
most reindeer herding districts have access
to alternative pasture sources the increased
availability may become a choice if needed.
 Many of these areas are, on the other hand,
much influenced by infrastructure development,
which may generate a situation where the best
pasture options are inaccessible. .

Because future climate change will involve

changes in land use by the reindeer industry,
the number of land use conflicts may increase
within the industry itself, as well as in relation to
other users of the land. As discussed in previous
cases, the impact of climate change may be an
extension of agriculture or forestry into former
tundra areas that have been essential for the
reindeer industry in the past, and the authors
stress that it is important to be ready to meet
future conflicts. The reindeer industry must be
ready to engage in open and ongoing dialogue
with other land users about the need for
adaptive pasture land use.

The case story has made extensive use of the following

article: Jan Åge Riseth, I Lie, B Holst, S-R Karlsen, and H
Tømmervik (2009): Climate change and the Sámi reindeer
industry in Norway. Probable needs of adaptation. IOP
Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 6 (2009)
342039 | In addition the following reference has been used
as supplementary background material | Norut, 2008,
The Reindeer industry during changing climate conditions.
Norut Alta Report 2008:6

Sámi Reindeer Industry Challenged by the Climate 85


CLIMATE CHANGE – AND TRANSPORT
· Melting of the ice opens up new economic
opportunities in the North Atlantic region.
· Climate change will create easier access
to resources that have previously been
inaccessible due to the ice cover. The new
opportunities will be within the fields of
oil and natural gas, mining, agriculture and
fishing.
· The opening of sea routes through the
Arctic Ocean will result in profound changes
in the global transport structures. In this
connection, the development of trans-
shipment harbours might offer a new
promising opportunity for the North Atlantic
region.
Chapter 6
CHAPTER 6
· Changes in the potential of land-based,
railway transportation is likely to form part of
a new global transport structure.
· Melting of the ice will also offer oppor-
tunities for a considerable expansion in
tourism in the North Atlantic Region, both
on land and at sea.
· The development of tourism in northern
Norway and Greenland illustrates how climate
change offers new possibilities, but also implies
new challenges for the involved – often very
remote – areas.
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND TRANSPORT 87
I n the middle of the 19th century, interest in
the Arctic and Antarctic increased immensely,
mainly as a result of better navigation
instrumentation and sturdier ships for
exploration. In the late 19th century, there was
a huge fascination for journeys of exploration
into the unknown. This was partly fuelled by the
interest of nations in staking their claim to areas
that might be of value in the future.
One driver of exploration was the dream of
finding shorter sea routes through the Arctic
Ocean north of Canada and Asia on to the
Orient. When the Suez and Panama Canals
opened in 1869 and 1914, the economic
importance of the northern sea routes receded.
Today, these routes are again of economic
importance because large tankers and cargo
ships cannot pass through the canals and have
to sail the very long sea routes south of Africa or
South America.
Several voyages of exploration were undertaken
into the Arctic, most of them ending in huge
tragedies, as ships were crushed by the pressure
of the sea ice and explorers were lost in the
darkness and cold. One of the biggest stepping-
stones in the discovery of the Arctic was the
tour of Adolf Nordenskiöld in 1878-1879. He
sailed along the whole coastline of Siberia
from Norway to the Bering Strait. Another
Scandinavian, Roald Amundsen, was the first to
traverse the western passage from Greenland
through the Canadian archipelago to Alaska in
1905. In 1909, Robert Peary claimed to be the
first to reach the North Pole on foot. Explorations
into the Arctic were also carried out from Russia
and Canada.
88 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND TRANSPORT Chapter 6
Because the Arctic sea ice floats on the Arctic
Ocean, it was possible with the advent of nuclear
submarines to traverse the Arctic Ocean under
the ice. In 1959, the first nuclear submarine, the
USS Skate, reached the North Pole and was able
to surface by finding thin ice to break through.
In the 1960s, there was a large increase in the
building of icebreakers by the Soviets, many of
them powered by nuclear energy.
Remote sensing and icebreakers ensured that
the Arctic Ocean could become navigable. The
first icebreaker to reach the North Pole in this
way was the USSR Arktika, in 1977. Today, the
Russians operate many icebreakers in the Arctic,
mostly for breaking up channels where cargo
ships and oil tankers can follow in their wake.
This makes ocean transportation possible along
the Siberian Coast.
Arctic shipping
The northeast sea route along the Siberian coast
became an important part of the developing
Siberian transportation system in the 1940s.
During World War II, the Arctic ports Murmansk
on the Kola Peninsula and Archangelsk on the
White Sea became very important as supplies
from the USA were offloaded at these ports to
assist in the mobilization of the Red Army to
help defeat the Germans.
During the Cold War, these harbours again
proved very important as these ports ensured
easier access to the North Atlantic than from
other USSR ports located in the Baltic Sea. This
led to a further build up of military installations
and ports in the Arctic region.
© Nordregio & NLS Finland for the administrative boundaries
Figure: New major circles of international shipping between the Atlantic and the Pacific around North America
and Eurasia with an ice-free Arctic.
Part of this military expansion included nuclear
powered icebreakers that were also used for
commercial purposes to open up channels in the
ice and to lead convoys of cargo ships through
the ice. As a consequence, Soviet freight
transport in Arctic waters increased remarkably,
from 500,000 tonnes in 1953 to over 6,500,000
tonnes in 1987, a thirteen-fold increase. After
that, the transport volume started to decrease,
but has started to increase again since 1998. The
Russians are still the only nation that operates
substantial shipping in the Arctic.
The growth of Arctic sea transport is mostly
fuelled by the increased exploitation of natural
resources in northwest Russia, especially oil
and gas. Most of the oil and gas is transported
Chapter 6
via pipelines and small tankers to Murmansk
and from there is transported by large tankers,
mostly to the USA, passing northern Norway and
Iceland en route.
Climate impact on Arctic activities
Climate change over the last decade has
resulted in increased shipping and industrial
activity in the Arctic. Ships can now operate in
areas of the Arctic where previously they could
not and areas of natural resources are now
open for exploitation. This has led to increased
economic activity, for example, in much of the
Atlantic part of the Arctic region.
These are but the intermediate developments
that are sure to continue in the next few
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND TRANSPORT 89
 Distance Comparison for Selected Marine Routes
Shanghai Yokohama
Nautical Nautical
Miles Miles
Rotterdam, via Northern Sea Route 8,865 7,825
Rotterdam, via Suez Canal 9,612 11,212
Rotterdam, via Cape of Good Hope 13,889 14,506

decades. If warming continues at today’s rapid
rate, the Arctic Ocean sea ice will, more or less,
disappear in the summer around 2040, or even
earlier if the most recent trends continue. This
would mean that regular shipping between
the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans
could start to operate with specially built ships.
If this happens the amount of activities and
transportation in the Arctic and the North
Atlantic will increase enormously. The Arctic sea
routes between the North Atlantic and the North
Pacific economic areas are much shorter than
today’s routes through the Suez and Panama
canals. Another key factor is that there would
be no limit to the size of the vessels, which now
constrains shipping via the canals (See Table).
The Arctic sea routes are going to be the key
to an extensive socio-economic development
in the Arctic and subarctic regions. These sea
routes are also going to have an impact on
economic development on a global scale, in
particular in the North Atlantic and also to a
certain extent in the North Pacific.
It is, however, not only global warming and
the enormous natural resources that will make
the Arctic region very important in the world
of the future. It is also its central location in the
landmasses of the planet and the short direct
sea routes to the main population centres that
are mostly located in the Northern Hemisphere.
The warming of the globe will mean that the
inhabitable spaces of the planet will spread
northward and the northern regions and cities
will thus grow. Even today, the subarctic regions
are becoming much more inhabitable, and,
if the warming continues beyond the middle
of the century, the areas of the High North all
around the Arctic Ocean will have become quite
inhabitable and active. This may eventually
mean that the Arctic Ocean will become the new
Mediterranean Ocean of the world.
Arctic resource development
As most of the polar ice will have disappeared in
the summer around 2040 – or even earlier, if the
most recent trends continue – the Arctic Ocean
will provide access to the huge resources of the
Arctic rim, with ships sailing to coastal ports and,
via ice-free rivers, into the vast spaces of Siberia,
northern Canada, and Alaska.

90 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND TRANSPORT Chapter 6

The practical consequences of this would
notably be Arctic resource development, which
immediately translates into hugely increased
Arctic shipping. The main types of resources
are oil and natural gas, mining, agriculture, and
fishing.
In Canada and Alaska, oil and natural gas
extraction has already started in the Alaskan
north, in the Beaufort/Mackenzie Area, and
in the Sverdrup Basin. With a reduction of
sea ice in these areas and the opening of sea
routes – at first in late summer – extraction
of these resources becomes cheaper and
environmentally more feasible.
In the near future, most new oil/natural gas
activity in Scandinavia will occur in northern
Norway, in the Hammerfest-Svalis area and in
Reduced ice in the Arctic Ocean opens up new opportunities for transport and tourism. Photo: Rasmus Ole Rasmussen
Chapter 6
Svalbard. The largest extraction areas today are,
however, in northwest Siberia.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has produced
a petroleum estimate for the Arctic. The
assessment suggests that the Arctic may contain
a significant share of the undiscovered, but
recoverable, oil and natural gas, about 22% of
the global undiscovered total.
With regard to production of the Arctic natural
systems, it can in general be said that the
productivity of all the Arctic life systems will
increase with increased warming in the north.
A crucial fact is that more precipitation will
occur in the Arctic as it gets warmer, contrary to
what will happen in many southern areas. With
warming, vegetation in the north will actually
become more “southern”. Therefore, the area
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND TRANSPORT 91
will yield more and more valuable agricultural
products in the future.
With regard to fishing, the increased warmth
of the Arctic Ocean and the increased amount
of nutrients that are, and will be, discharged by
the increasingly ice-free Arctic rivers will mean
that the Arctic Ocean will take a big leap in
marine productivity. Today, some of the fishing
grounds are closed by the Arctic sea ice, but as
the warming continues the sea ice will continue
to retreat from the coastal areas and become
reduced in size. This will mean that the Arctic
Ocean will become an important fishing area in
the future.
Transshipment harbours
Arctic resource development will go hand-in-
hand with the opening up of shipping routes in
the Arctic Ocean, as well as shipping on the ever
more ice-free rivers that run north into the Arctic
Ocean.
Global shipping has so far not enjoyed the
benefit of the shorter Arctic shipping distances
because of the sea ice. The Arctic sea ice is
measurably retreating and it is predicted that
by 2040 (and maybe earlier) there will be easier
ocean access to the resources of the Arctic,
which for some areas is the case even today.
Despite the thinning and retreating of the Arctic
sea ice, traversing the Arctic Ocean still requires
reinforced ships, which will probably be the case
for the rest of the century, except for the few
ice free summer months. This can hold back the
development of year-round Arctic shipping for
some time. Reinforced ships are more expensive
92 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND TRANSPORT Chapter 6
than regular container, bulk, oil, and natural gas
vessels and will require more fuel. In the future,
reinforced Arctic vessels will be as large as non-
icebreaker ocean-going vessels, and will not be
limited by the size restrictions of the Suez and
Panama canals.
The Arctic becoming ice-free in the summer
is more important than it might seem at first
glance. This is because the multi-year ice that is
still widespread in the area is often many meters
thick, and therefore very hard to break through,
even for the strongest icebreakers. Of course,
sea ice is going to be formed in the Arctic in
the foreseeable future, just as in the northern
seas like the Baltic Sea. The ice formed in the
winter is called one-year-ice. It rarely exceeds
1.5 m a thickness that can be passed through by
reinforced ships.
An important aspect in the development of
world shipping is the so-called transshipment
harbour. The trend towards ever-larger
container, bulk, oil, and natural gas vessels is
encouraging the construction of transshipment
harbours. Even though it takes some time to
transfer cargo between ships in these ports,
the cost efficiencies gained are considerable
because of the enormous economies of scale
derived by these huge vessels.
Another reason why new large transshipment
ports are now being planned and built is that
the ever-larger vessels are unable to enter many
of today’s harbours, which are too shallow or
small, and do not have the land-based storage
areas needed for the vast quantity of goods
being shipped.

Cost effective Arctic shipping utilizing super
cargo vessels may be come a reality through the
use of transshipment harbours located on each
side of the Arctic Ocean. At these transshipment
harbours, cargo would be transferred from
smaller feeder vessels to the super-sized Arctic
vessels. Arctic transshipment harbours might
very well be located south of the Bering Strait
and at the gateway into the Atlantic Ocean
between Greenland, Iceland, Norway and the
Chapter 6
The opening of the Northern
Shipping Routes will bring new
commercial opportunities to many.
It will also bring new challenges to
the search and rescue teams in the
North Atlantic Region.
Photo: Atlantic Airways
United Kingdom . Other possible locations
are at the gateways into the Canadian Arctic
Archipelago and at the gateway between
Labrador in Canada and Greenland.
Large, safe harbours with enough inexpensive,
flat land are needed, which rules out densely
populated regions due to the cost of land.
Transshipment harbours need not necessarily be
hubs of land transportation because these hubs
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND TRANSPORT 93
serve mostly feeder ships that distribute the
goods to local harbours, i.e., they form a hub-
and-spoke shipping system.
A large transshipment harbour is being planned
for the old military harbour at Scapa Flow in
the Orkneys north of Scotland. This harbour
is planned to serve transportation between
Europe and America, but later it also could serve
as a hub for transportation to and from the
Arctic. In Iceland, several possible locations for a
transshipment harbour have been researched.
Several other potential locations for
transshipment harbours have been researched
- Narvik, Murmansk, Kola Peninsula, etc.
Transshipment harbours in all these locations,
could become important for Arctic shipping
on the European side of the North Atlantic
as the northern sea routes start to open to
international shipping.
The Russians are willing to provide icebreakers,
surveillance, etc. along the northeastern sea
route. These services are expensive, however,
because the wide super cargo vessels require
two icebreakers to open up the ice for them. This
is so expensive that a long convoy is needed
to distribute the costs –and convoys cut into
the time-gain achieved by the shorter Arctic
distances. The big change will come when there
is predominantly only one-year-ice left in the
Arctic, because then specially built ships, for
example, double acting ships, will be able to
sail in the Arctic Ocean without the help of an
expansive icebreaker escort.
94 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND TRANSPORT Chapter 6
The northwest sea route through the Canadian
Arctic Archipelago from the Pacific Ocean to the
Canadian/USA side of the Atlantic first became
ice free in our time in the fall of 2007. This sea
route is, however, not very dependable because
of the danger of occasional sea ice in cold
summers. Shipping companies need to be able
to be sure the route stays open, or with little
ice, every summer. The narrow straits constitute
a more restricted choice of routes, compared
to the more open geography of the Polar and
northeast routes.
With all of these routes there is the potential
for regional development that will gradually
become enhanced as the sea ice becomes less
and less and more shipping develops.
A rough way to estimate the volume of cargo
that could very well be transported through the
Arctic Ocean is the current volume of cargo on
routes that would be shorter if the Arctic Ocean
was used instead. Based on volume estimates
from 2003, the volume of cargo through the
Arctic could be about 5-6 million TEU (Twenty-
foot container Equivalent Unit). By comparison,
some 7.2 million TEU went through the Suez
Canal in 2003. It is important to note that, in
addition to the intercontinental world transport
through the Arctic Ocean, there will be new
transport shipments that originate in the Arctic
rim because of the increasingly ice-free harbours
and additional Arctic resource development.
Railways and shipping
The retreat of Arctic ice is impacting land
transportation as well.
New plans for a multimodal railway
transportation corridor, called N.E.W., from
China through the Russian Federation are being
considered. The main aim of this project is to
create a link between China and the Atlantic
coast of Eurasia. Narvik, Norway, is foreseen
as the Atlantic port of transfer between rail
and ocean vessel. The main idea behind this
continental transportation link is not to have to
go south of Africa with large container ships to
reach Western Europe and North America.
With the new and improved Asian railway
system, containers from, e.g., China, will
be transported by train to Narvik and then
transported onwards to Europe and eastern
North America by relatively short shipping
routes. The usefulness of these railways,
however, will possibly reach their prime in the
earlier part of this century because as shipping
routes over the Arctic Ocean open up over most
of the year, they will provide a much cheaper
way to transport goods from the east coast of
Asia to the Atlantic.
It should be noted that the time scale for all of
the projects and scenarios discussed here will be
uncertain, as long as the current world recession
continues to dampen economic expansion.
The main impact on global marine
transportation will naturally occur when year-
round shipping through the Arctic Ocean
becomes a reality. This will in due time lead to
vigorous economic activity in many areas of the
Arctic because of the increased traffic, and, thus,
improved access to resources.
Chapter 6
As the activities and the transportation
systems at the Arctic rim reach a certain
degree of development, the road, rail, and
inland waterway systems of Canada and the
USA, Europe, and Asia will need to form new
north-south overland connections to link
the developed continental areas to newly
development areas and transportation systems
in the Arctic and subarctic regions.
One very important consequence of the
opening of shipping routes through the Arctic
Ocean is the formation of new global shipping
circles around North America and Eurasia.
Circular transportation routes are important
due to the global equalizing effect they have:
every area has the opportunity for trade in
either direction. Also, for security purposes it is
important to have two or more ways to reach
a destination, e.g., to bypass dangerous areas
in times of war or other conflict. Quite simply,
circular routes create multiple options for all.
By TRAUSTI VALSSON
Main sources used in connection with this chapter: ACIA.
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University
Press, 2005 | Valsson, T. How the World will Change – with
Global Warming. University of Iceland Press, 2006 | Ministry
for Foreign Affairs. North Meets North: Navigation and the
Future of the Arctic. Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Reykjavik,
Iceland, July 2006.
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND TRANSPORT 95
Longyearbyen
Effects of climate and weather on tourism
Senja
Vesterålen
A trek across Svalbard’s wilderness, a cruise
to admire fjord vistas, and driving a team
of huskies across Sámiland are all possible
holidays in northern Norway. These activities
attract tourists, who in turn bring much needed
income and help to create viable livelihoods.
Yet the industry can be volatile with many
factors influencing tourists’ impressions of the
destinations that they visit.
The National Tourism Routes in northern
mainland Norway and Svalbard have been
in sharp focus of late because of the impact
on the region by more intensive tourism
activities, especially in relation to the transport
infrastructure. Among the concerns have
been the roadways on either side of the main
shipping lane that forms a part of the National
Tourism Route in Vesterålen, which is a popular
area for the Coastal Express tourist boat, and the
side roads leading to nearby areas.
On Senja, the National Tourism Route is
between two ferry terminals on the west and
the northern sections of the island, including
side roads to nearby villages and services that
people along that route might use. For Svalbard,
Longyearbyen has been a key focus, especially in
relation to tourists who pass through or stay in
the town, rather than those who disembark from
and then re-board their cruise ship.
96 96Climate
Effects of climate
change – andand Chapter 7
weather on tourism
Transportation
Above the Arctic Circle
All three locations lie above the Arctic Circle.
Senja and Vesterålen are islands, but they
are connected to the mainland by numerous
bridges, although two roll-on/roll-off ferries
form key parts of the National Tourism Route.
Longyearbyen is reached by either air or ship,
with most tourists taking commercial jet flights
at least one way. Twin concerns in all cases are
the possible impact of climate change that may
affect the viability of the tourism activities, and
the impact of increased tourism activities on the
natural landscape.
The landscape of Senja and Vesterålen is mainly
low mountains with peaks 600-800 m above
sea level rising up from a rocky coastal zone
with scattered settlements and a millennia-long
history of farming and fishing. Many farms have
been abandoned or reduced in size in recent
decades, leading to a re-growth of indigenous
vegetation. The islands are separated by narrow
channels, some sheltered and some exposed
to the open sea. In some cases, there are long
fjords. Svalbard is also mountainous, but has
tundra vegetation, very few settlements, and
only a short history of habitation.
All of these places attract tourists who enjoy
a variety of heritage experiences: cultural,
natural, and historical. People seek peace and
quiet, unique vistas, open air, and different
levels of adventure–which could mean a
short hike up a Vesterålen trail or days in
remote Svalbard watching out for inquisitive
polar bears. Little expectation exists for good
weather. If it is calm and sunny, that is a true
bonus. Otherwise, blizzards in June in the hills
around Longyearbyen or a storm lashing Senja´s
exposed coast is part of the holiday experience
and part of the adventure sought.
The weather is always an exciting feature of
the region and has its allure. However, the
region has taken steps recently to provide even
more reason for tourists to venture up north.
The most famous mountains on the northern
Norwegian island of Senja, the Devil’s Teeth,
can now be appreciated from a recently built
viewing platform and rest area, which was
constructed to integrate this roadway into
Norway’s National Tourism Route. The new
arrangement provides a welcome rest point
Cruise ships are becoming a still more frequent way of reaching less visited places in the North Atlantic. Photo: Malik Milfeldt
Chapter 7 ofClimate
for cyclists and a stopping point for drivers for
photos, a scenic picnic, and, of course, toilets.
A wooden walkway encourages a short stroll
down to the rocky shoreline where dolphins
can sometimes be seen playing offshore. Rather
than just driving past the Devil’s Teeth, tourists
now have a reason to stop and enjoy the special
scenery, even if it might mean staying in one’s
vehicle to avoid getting absolutely soaked by
the horizontal, wind-driven rain.
Whither the weather?
Adventure seeking tourists may easily contend
with the extreme weather, but tourism brings
with it other challenges that are not as easily
resolved as bringing along a good rain jacket.
For Svalbard, for example, the historical and
natural sites are suffering from the wear and
tear of large numbers of visitors. Damage also
occurs from leaving rubbish at the various
sites and through blatant theft of ‘souvenirs’
from historical buildings or industrial sites.
Effects climatechange
and weather on tourism 97 97
– and Transportation
Suggestions proposed to counter these trends
incur costs and create controversy. Suggestions
have ranged from roping off sites, to hiring
monitors independent of the tour operators,
to actually limiting the number of tourists
permitted at a site or on Svalbard itself. In such
cases, the measures undertaken to reduce the
impact of tourism at the sites might actually
reduce the overall tourism experience offered by
the destination. There are no easy answers.
Local tourism operators can rarely address these
large-scale changes brought about by increasing
demand for their destinations, especially in the
relatively small locations in the North. Similarly,
marked changes in the weather may affect the
possibilities tourists have in relation to enjoying
the various landscapes and the unique nature of
the region.
A key challenge is how much time and
money the tourism industry in the region
should expend on addressing these concerns.
Tour operators would like to increase the
attractiveness of the region, but at what cost.
For example, there are few options for tourists
who feel that they are stuck indoors during
inclement weather. Small museums and galleries
exist, but would be unlikely to survive for more
than a few days without tourists seeking shelter
from the elements. In theory, more effort should
be put into generating new ideas that could
evolve into new and more varied activities for
tourists, especially during weather that often
precludes outdoors activities.
The key is balance—neither ignoring any
weather-related challenges in retaining
98 Effects of climate and weather on tourism
tourists, nor investing everything in keeping
visitors happy irrespective of the weather.
Additionally, weather and climate concerns
need to be integrated into all other aspects of
tourism management, such as site protection
for example. Moreover, there should not be an
over-reliance on tourism for livelihoods in the
region in case factors beyond a location’s control
affects tourism numbers.
Even though many tourists tend to indicate
a preference for clearer, calmer, and sunnier
weather in polls conducted in the region, and
who wouldn’t, but in fact many tourists who
come to the region enjoy the excitement of
variety and changeability. So-called disaster
tourism, including storm watching and
tornado chasing, are increasing in popularity.
Poets, photographers, and artists often prefer
unsettled weather - very little Sturm und Drang
emerges from quiet, sunny days.
The lesson, perhaps, is that different weather can
always be marketed to different tourism sectors.
This is especially true for northern Norway
where the weather is truly part of the adventure.
By ILAN KELMAN
The following literature has been used in connection with
this case: Rauken, T., I. Kelman, and J.K.S. Jacobsen, 2009 |
“Tourism Livelihoods in Northern Norway: Small business
perceptions of climate change and weather variability” |
Presentation at the 7th International Symposium on Tourism
and Sustainability. Travel & Tourism in the Age of Climate
Change - Robust Findings, Key Uncertainties, University of
Brighton, Brighton, England, 8-10 July 2009.
Nuuk
Cruise tourism – a boon or a menace?
Illoqqortoormiut
Tasiilaq
Ísafjörður
Akureyri
Grundarfjörður
Reykjavík
Cruise tourism in the Arctic has so far been
limited due to problems with accessibility. The
changes in the ice conditions, however, have
opened up new possibilities in this connection,
and without a doubt these activities will
continue to expand with increased speed.
Many tourists from around the world are
attracted to Arctic scenery and its wildlife,
traditional peoples and their cultures. No doubt
considerable numbers will have great interest
in exploring one of the last unknown, wild
regions on the planet. At the same time, others
are expressing severe concern over the marked
increase in activities in the region that may have
a negative impact not only on the environment,
but also on the people living in the Arctic.
A slow start?
While other regions in the North, for instance
Alaska, have been known for cruising tourism
for decades, the North Atlantic Region has been
rather slow to take off. The reasons for this have
been many.
First, transport and the maintenance of
infrastructure is costly. Secondly, the summer
tourist season is short and often dependent
on favourable weather. Thirdly, tourism in the
ChapterCruise
region is essentially nature-based, and therefore
vulnerable to capricious variations in the
climate, as well as to long-term climate change.
Finally, many of the involved organizations and
companies in the industry historically were not
adequately prepared to respond quickly to the
latent potential of the region.
The situation is changing, however. In 2009, a
total of 20 new cruise ships have been added to
the North Atlantic routes and 8 expedition cruise
companies focused on the North Atlantic are
planning to expand their offerings. The region is
prepared to receive these new calls. Norway has
37 ports, Greenland has 16, Iceland has 12 and
the Faroe Islands has 3 for a total of 68 ports.
Moreover, the region has several common
selling points that can be collectively promoted
within cruise tourism. Increasing accessibility
will no doubt lead to new and more innovative
initiatives.
Iceland – in business for a while
In Iceland, every year between 150 and 200
cruise ship calls have been recorded at 5
harbours, bringing 120,000 and more guests to
the country.
7 Climate
tourism – a boon
change a menace? 99 99
or Transportation
– and

The most popular cruise ship harbour in
Iceland is the capital, Reykjavik, the largest
city with more than 118,000 inhabitants. The
number of calls is usually between 50 and 100,
encompassing more than 50,000 guests and
thousands of crewmembers as well. A very high
ratio of cruise passengers take part in shore
excursions, usually via a coach with a local guide.
Over the last 10 years, Akureyri, the capital of the
north, has seen more than a 160% increase in
the number of cruise ship passengers. Between
50 and 60 cruise ships per year bringing 45-
50,000 guests is considered normal.
Among other destinations in Iceland are
Grundarfjordur in western Iceland and Isafjordur
in the northwest.
Greenland – a newcomer to the
business
Cruise tourism is a relatively recent activity in
Greenland. The situation is changing, however,
and visit frequency is expanding – and so are the
problems of managing the new activities.
100 Cruise tourism – a boon or a menace?
Towns in the Arctic, such as
Tasiilaq in East Greenland, will
be places targeted by large
cruise ships with hundreds
and even thousands of tour-
ists. The challenge for these
places will be to cope with
numbers of tourists exceeding
the number of inhabitants.
Photo:
Rasmus Ole Rasmussen
The American cruise ship, Crown Princess, visited
Nuuk in 2009. It is the largest ship ever to come
to the town. With 2,962 cruise passengers on
board and a crew of some 1,500, a stop-over
in a town with a total population of around
15,000 inhabitants was a major event, requiring
detailed preparation and organization. Such
situations are manageable, however, and similar
situations will no doubt become still more
frequent.
The challenges
Many of the cruise ships are, however, aiming
to visit some of the smaller places in Greenland.
A visit in 2009 by the German cruise ship, M/S
Europa, with 408 passengers and a staff of
280 to the town of Ittoqqortoormiit in East
Greenland was extremely demanding, both on
the population of the town, as well as on the
organizers of the cruise.
The town has a total population of just around
500, so for a day the tourists exceeded the total
population. Meeting such an “invasion” of eager
cruise passengers and crew is a huge challenge.
Indeed, for many of the smaller ports of call the
human resources to meet these challenges are
quite limited.
Local, professional tourist guides are playing an
important role, both in helping to ensure the
preservation of the natural environment and by
enhancing the visitor’s experience by providing
in-depth and culturally relevant commentary.
The costs associated with maintaining such a
service, given the infrequency of the visits, are
very difficult to cover. Recent research shows
that the average cruise ship guest spends
approximately USD 81 per visit, in addition to
the cost of the shore excursions. This figure is,
however, an average amount, and is definitely
not the reality in many of the smaller places,
such as Ittoqqortoormiit.
One unique challenge is the impact large
numbers of visitors have on the local shops. For
example, a large number of visitors descending
on a local shop or kiosk in search of fresh fruit,
candy, chocolate etc. may very well empty the
shop of these products after just one visit, not
realizing that the village may not be able to get
new, replacement supplies until the following
year.
The industry often emphasizes that cruise ship
passengers have less environmental impact than
many other groups of visitors. Usually they are
in the hands of able tourist guides during their
shore excursions and generally do not venture
very far into the vulnerable wilderness areas.
Again, this may be the situation in larger ports of
call. For the smaller stops, maintaining a guide
staff year round for such concerns is nearly
impossible.
In the case of Greenland, for example, one of
the most important steps is the establishment
of the Port Readiness Program. The goal of this
program is to inform key ports of opportunities
for local revenue generation and employment
enhancement, and to assist in planning for
excursions and sustainable activities.
These initiatives comply with the international
policy directive outlined in the WTO’s Derba
Declaration from 2003, for example, which
emphasizes that tourism is a two-way
relationship, where the tourism sector has an
obligation to minimize adverse impacts on the
environment and local communities.
A possible future?
Through cooperative efforts in the region, it may
be possible to brand the North Atlantic Region
as a distinct and unique cruise destination.
Cooperation will facilitate the sharing of
knowledge and experiences among the various
destinations in the North Atlantic Region and
will help promote the opportunity to generate
a consistent message to consumers around
the world about the North Atlantic Region. The
common selling points can be summed up in
words like the Sagas and the Vikings, unspoiled
nature, silence, mystery, the midnight sun,
adventure tourism, political stability, safety and
uniqueness
By DANIELA TOMMASINI
Cruise tourism – a boon or a menace? 101
 CHAPTER 7
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS

· Climate change creates new economic · A number of international regulations and

opportunities in the North Atlantic and institutions have been developed, but
Arctic region. The exploitation of these the question is to what extent these are
opportunities raises a number of questions sufficient, and are accepted by all interested
in relation to the geopolitical situation. parties.

· Who owns the new resources? Who
should have access? How should access be
controlled, and by whom? How should the
indirect impacts on living resources – e.g.,
new fisheries that may take away feeding
sources for marine mammals – be regulated,
and by whom?
· The appearance of new fishing stocks in the
North Atlantic Region illustrates the need for
the establishment of management structures
for the new economic opportunities created by
climate change.

Chapter 7 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS 103

O ne of the most discussed aspects of climate
change has been the ongoing melting of
ice from the ice sheets and the Polar Sea. The
retreat of the ice cover during the last decade
has been substantial, with no indications of a
halt or reversal of the retreat within the near
future. This ice melt is clearly going to have
consequences on many levels.
The future influx of new species into the Arctic
Ocean may provide new opportunities for large-
scale fisheries, but may also result in adverse
effects on the sea mammal stocks that provide
a stable food supply for many Northerners.
So the opening up of new opportunities is at
the same time challenging the adaptability of
Northern communities. This issue was discussed
in Chapter 5.
The reduction of the ice cover in the Arctic
Ocean and adjacent sea areas opens up the
possibility for new activities connected to the
emergence of new transportation routes, where
the Arctic Ocean is a Mediterranean Ocean
between Europe, North America and Asia,
substantially reducing transport distances and
transportation costs between the continents.
This issue was discussed in Chapter 6.
Another issue are the new options for access to
hitherto unexploited resources, both on land
and on the continental shelf. The increased
interest in the Arctic over the last decade has
accelerated due to the hunger in the world’s
markets for cheap and much-needed resources.
This interest is not only focused on minerals
and energy, but also on renewable resources,
primarily the opportunities in various new
fisheries.
104 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS Chapter 7
In both cases, the question of ownership, rights,
access, and exploitation methods are important
questions, closely connected, however, to
the rights of the people already living in the
Arctic. New activities will without a doubt have
substantial impact on the renewable resources
of the region and their specific biosystem
dynamics, such as changes within the stocks of
both traditional fisheries and marine mammals.
These new activities will also impact the
terrestrial ecosystems. On the one hand, these
changes will open up new opportunities, but at
the same time will limit a number of traditional
activities that have been going on for decades,
and in some cases for centuries.
These changes, however, are no longer
considered to be challenging news. The topic
has become trivialized as most people are
confronted with a flood of information on the
issues almost daily via the newspaper, TV and
radio. Politicians are invited to Greenland “with
their own eyes to see the ongoing changes”, and
the changes are more or less recognized as very
possible realities.
What is often forgotten, however, is the fact that
the changes imply a number of crucial questions
that are seldom discussed. For instance: Which
resources should be exploited, and which
should be protected? What kind of regulation
of new transport activities should be imposed
in order to prevent damage to the environment
and endangering traditional activities in the
Arctic areas? Who should benefit from the
new options? Who may be affected by these
activities? And last, but not least: How, and by
whom should these options be regulated?
 © Nordregio & NLS Finland for the administrative boundaries
UNITED STATES

CANADA

RUSSIA

North Pole

GREENLAND
(DENMARK)

600 km

ICELAND FINLAND

FAROE SWEDEN
ISLANDS NORWAY
(DK) UK
Internal waters, territorial seas Hans Islands: overlapping
and exclusive economic zones (EEZ) Canada/Denmark territorial
Agreed borders
Overlapping disputed EEZ areas waters, lands and EEZ
Median line
Claimed continental shelf beyond 200 nm 200 nm from baselines
Potential continental shelf beyond 200 nm 350 nm from baselines (some nations could extend claims
to 350nm as result of their land masses extending into the sea)
Unclaimed or unclaimable continental shelf Lomonosov ridge

Overview of claimed and unclaimed continental shelf areas, as well as territorial and international waters in the Arctic
region. The disputed areas regarding fisheries include overlapping EEZ zones in the Norwegian and Barents Seas and
international waters over claimed extensions of the continental shelf. Main source: International Boundaries Research Unit,
University of Durham, England

Chapter 7 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS 105

The quest for access
The lure of the Northwest Passage has intrigued
explorers and rulers since King Henry VII of
Britain in 1497 sent John Cabot to search for a
northern route to the Pacific. It took a long time,
and many unsuccessful attempts, until Roald
Amundsen from Norway in 1906 was the first to
succeed. It took three years to traverse the ice
infested Passage in an ice-fortified ship. In 1944,
Henry Larsen, a Royal Canadian Mounted Police
sergeant, and his seven-man crew, completed
the first single-season crossing. Since then,
however, many successful traversing have
been undertaken, yet the heavy ice conditions
continue to be a severe hindrance to an easy
sail through the 1450 km long passage, winding
through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago.
Due to an historic claim, Canada considers
the Northwest Passage to be entirely within
Canadian territorial waters. The Arctic
Archipelago has been under Canadian control
since the 1880s. There were claims set forth by
Norway that have been resolved. For example,
Norway claimed the Sverdrup Islands from
the time Sverdrup returned to Norway in 1902
after being the first European to map the
region. The dispute was settled in 1930 with the
Canadian government paying Sverdrup USD
67,000, stating that the payment should be
seen as compensation for the mapping efforts
undertaken by the Norwegian. A similar claim
was made by Norway in 1931 for East Greenland,
leading to a 1932 occupation on the east coast
between 61°30’ and 63°45’. The case was brought
to the Permanent Court of International Justice
in den Haag who ruled in favour of Denmark.
106 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS Chapter 7
The United States, as well as several other
countries, has been arguing that the Northwest
Passage is to be considered international waters,
allowing free and unhampered travel through
the passage. The reason for this is the potential
that the Northwest Passage may become
a viable transportation route for the entire
world. This route is viable not only because it
would reduce the time and fuel consumption
of shipping cargo from Europe to the Pacific via
the Panama Canal, it would allow shipping to
be carried out by ships of substantially larger
dimensions than the current Panamax-sized
vessels.
“One may think of the North Pole
as a place of limited interest. It
is covered by more than 4 km of
water, on top of that substantial
amounts of ice that do not even
stay, but move around with the
currents in the Arctic Sea. The
present interest, however, is due
to several signs indicating that
below the sea are large amounts
of hydrocarbons – oil and gas –
just waiting for recovery.”
According to the press in both Denmark and
Canada, the dispute between the two countries
regarding Hans Ø (Hans Island), a small isolated
rock of some 1.3 km2 situated in the icy waters
of the Nares Strait seems to have caused a
certain amount of turmoil in the otherwise good
relations between Denmark and Canada. The
island was first mapped in connection with the
British and American expeditions from 1852-
1876, and the island is supposed to have been
named after a Greenlander called Hans Hendrik,
with the native name Suersaq, who worked as
guide and translator for the expeditions.
Denmark has claimed that geological evidence
points to Hans Island as being a part of
Greenland, while Canada, on the other hand,
in 1973 claimed that Hans Island is part of their
territory, and no agreement has been reached
between the two governments on the issue.
Satellite images show that the island is more
or less positioned right in the middle of the
ocean and both countries officially emphasize
that more serious matters have been more
pressing, leaving resolution of this dispute for
future negotiations. This official stance has not,
however, keep the two countries from making
quite clear public statements by hoisting their
national flags on the island.
Another recent debate was instigated by the fact
that a Russian flag was planted on the seabed of
the North Pole, 4,261 m below the Polar icecap.
The TV broadcast in connection with the event
was part of the publicity measures for a research
project aimed at investigating the structure and
evolution of the Earth’s crust in the Arctic region.
First and foremost, research is focused on the
part of the Arctic neighbouring Eurasia, such
as the Mendeleev Ridge, the Alpha Ridge and
also the Lomonosov Ridge, in order to discover
whether they are linked with the Siberian shelf.
The expedition, part of the Russian program for
the 2007–2008 International Polar Year, used
the Akademik Fedorov research ship and two
Chapter 7
Finnish built MIR submersibles, and was assisted
by the nuclear icebreaker, Rossiya.
The message about the placing of the flag
caused public concern in the other countries
bordering the Arctic - Canada, Norway,
Denmark, and the United States - as it was
emphasized that it could be considered to be
a possible claim of the North Pole being part
of Russia. It was emphasized by the Russian
authorities, however, that the aim of the
expedition was only to show that the Russian
shelf reaches the North Pole.
Who owns the North Pole?
One may think of the North Pole as a place of
limited interest. It is covered by more than 4
km of water, on top of that substantial amounts
of ice that do not even stay, but move around
with the currents in the Arctic Sea. The present
interest, however, is due to several signs
indicating that below the sea are large amounts
of hydrocarbons – oil and gas – just waiting for
recovery. So the owner of the North Pole will at
the same time be in possession of vast amounts
of energy.
From a Danish/Greenlandic perspective, the
question is whether the North Greenland shelf
has a natural connection to the long and narrow
Lomonosov Ridge. It is assumed that the Ridge
is an extension of the continent, and therefore
should be connected to the Greenland/Canada
shelf.
To prove, however, that there is this natural
connection it is necessary to show that the ridge
actually starts somewhere in Greenland or on
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS 107
the Greenland continental shelf. This connection
can be established only if it is possible to show
that there is a continuation of the materials
and structures found in the ridge onto the
Greenland continental shelf, while at the same
time demonstrating that there are different
materials and structures on the two sides of this
continuation.
Drillings and samples taken along the supposed
line would be a way of identifying both
structures and materials, but such an approach
is very expensive. Thus, as a first step in
attempting to identify a possible connection, the
measurement of earthquakes in the region was
undertaken. Movement caused by earthquakes
anywhere on the globe will be recognizable
even at great distances from the epicentre, and
the delay will depend on the material through
which the wave energy passes.
By measuring the seismic signatures where the
expected ridge is believed to be, as well as on
both sides of the ridge, the signals will provide
some indication of whether the materials
differ or not, and thereby indicate a possible
ridge. If the signatures are similar, this would
indicate that the ridge does not exist and is not
connected to the Greenland continental shelf. A
similar approach has been taken by Russia, and
Sweden, Denmark and Russia have arranged
joint research programs in the Polar Sea in order
to get better and more up-to-date information
about the geological structures in the area.
Arena of future conflicts?
Because of the Cold War and the hostility
between the Soviet Union and the West, there
108 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS Chapter 7
was very little co-operation on scientific research
and other matters concerning the Arctic in the
post World War II years. In the 1980s, however,
as the Cold War started to thaw, a number of
joint research projects and co-operative efforts
started among the eight nations surrounding
the Arctic Ocean.
However, it was not until 1996 that the Arctic
Council (AC) was established and included
Canada, Greenland (Denmark), Finland, Iceland,
Norway, Russia, Sweden and the USA as a forum
for co-operation in the Arctic. In addition to the
eight member states that claim sovereignty
over territory in the Arctic - Canada, Denmark,
Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and
the United States – the Council also includes
a number of organizations representing
indigenous people as Permanent Participants.
These organizations do not vote, but otherwise
participate fully in the work of the organization.
Similarly, a number of non-governmental
organizations and representatives from other
countries are present at the meetings, and
may be heard as well as participate in project
activities arranged by the Council.
Several programs and institutions that had been
established earlier have now been organized
under the helm of the Arctic Council. One of the
working groups is the Emergency Prevention,
Preparedness and Response group (EPPR),
which exchanges information on best practices
and undertakes projects, for instance, on the
development of guidance and risk assessment
methodologies, as well as emergency response
exercises and training.
The work of this group has focused mainly on
oil and gas transportation and extraction, and
on radiological and other hazards. Extended
exploitation of the natural resources (oil, gas
and mining) in the region, and the growth of
tourism will lead to new and more frequently
used navigation routes. These developments
call for new efforts to enhance the security of
marine transport, the prevention of emergencies
and the efficient response to such emergencies,
including the creation of cross-border assistance
regimes among neighbouring states.
A new approach
The realization that this huge and rich area,
the Arctic, will become more accessible if the
warming continues has awakened the interest
of the world. It is, however, mostly the nations
that border the area that are taking steps now
to address the many issues surrounding climate
change in the region. The USSR, and now Russia,
has had a long history of activity and assertive
measures in the Arctic, as has already been
described. Of late, the USA is showing increased
interest in the Arctic, e.g., via USGS research
of fossil fuel resources, and by continuing to
maintain the air base in Thule, Greenland. On
the other hand, the USA gave up its foothold in
Iceland by closing the naval air station located in
Keflavík.
It would appear that the USA does not as yet
have a unified, long-term policy that addresses
the future importance of the Arctic with regard
to the energy reserves and other resources
located in the region, as well as the future
importance of Arctic shipping routes. Canada is
also asserting itself in the Arctic. Much of the
Chapter 7
investment needed to make the Northwest
Passage safely navigable will fall on Canada.
With increasing access to the Arctic and further
resource development there, conflicts will surely
arise. Ocean boundary disputes are but one
example. Nations without direct Arctic access
are also not likely to sit idly by as the Arctic is
divided. Furthermore, environmental protection
organizations are likely to have significant
interaction with those that aim to develop the
Arctic and/or extract Arctic resources.
It is, however, generally accepted by the
nations involved that Arctic territory issues
can only be tackled through the application of
existing international law, i.e., the International
Convention on the Law of the Sea. The
resolution of these potential disputes will very
much depend on the outcome of ongoing
research activities. As a result of this, suggestions
regarding a new approach have been put
forward.
The starting point for such a discussion is often
the Antarctic Treaty, which might be seen as
a model for the Arctic. The Antarctic Treaty
encompasses all land and ice shelves south of
the southern 60th parallel, and the treaty has
now been signed by 46 countries. The overall
goal of the treaty was to set aside Antarctica as
a scientific preserve, to establish the freedom
of scientific investigation, and at the same time
ban military activities on the continent. Besides
emphasizing the Antarctic as fundamentally
a region for research activities, Article 1 of
the treaty stresses the need to use Antarctica
for peaceful purposes only, prohibiting
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS 109
military activities, while Article 4 states that
the treaty does not recognize, dispute, or
establish territorial sovereignty claims, just as
it emphasized that no new claims could be
asserted as long as the treaty remains in force.
The majority of Antarctica is claimed by one
or more countries, but most countries do not
explicitly recognize those claims. Today, there
are 46 treaty member nations while there are
28 consultative and 18 accedited members. The
consultative – and thereby voting – members
include the seven nations that claim portions
of Antarctica as national territory, while the
remaining 21 non-claimant nations either do
not recognize the claims of others, or have not
expressed their positions.
These conflicting claims, however, have not
as yet led to any open conflicts that could be
interpreted as violations of the original ideas
behind the treaty forcing the withdrawal of any
member state in order to advance their claim.
First and foremost, the ban on military activities
seems so far to have prevented both nuclear
weapons and “Star Wars” installations on the
continent.
Inspired by the experiences with the Antarctic
Treaty, Donat Pharand, Professor Emeritus of
International Law, University of Ottawa, put
forward a draft of an Arctic Treaty in 1991. He
emphasized the idea of an Arctic Region Council
aimed at regional co-operation that would lead
to the use of the Arctic Region for peaceful
purposes only. He stressed seven main goals for
the treaty:
110 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS Chapter 7
· to facilitate regional co-operation generally
among its Members,
· to insure the protection of the environment;
· to promote the co-ordination of scientific
research;
· to encourage the conservation and
appropriate management of living
resources;
· to foster economic and sustainable
development;
· to further the health and social well-being of
the indigenous and other inhabitants of the
Arctic region; and
· to promote the use of the Arctic region for
peaceful purposes.
The approach clearly moves the debate and
decision process away from the engagement
of individual nation States only, by opening up
the discussion to both international and local
involvement.
Another approach emphasizes the role of the
current Arctic Council. The Council has two
primary objectives:
First, to promote environmental protection,
which has been a major issue among the
Arctic nations since the establishment of the
Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy in
1991 that aims to address the environmental
issues affecting the entire region; and second,
to promote sustainable development in the
Arctic, emphasizing the special economic
circumstances of the indigenous peoples
and other residents of the Arctic in relation to
preservation of the environment.
Critique of the suggestion of the Arctic Council
as a means of managing major problems in
the Arctic emphasizes that the structure of the
Council works more as a forum for exchange
of opinions and ideas than as an organization
capable of establishing binding agreements
and resolving conflicts. The Council’s current
structure, on the one hand, enables it to be a
more open and informal forum for development
of project activities relevant for the Arctic
residents, but, at the same time, its structure
limits the potential of the organization to
establish binding solutions.
Nation State responses
The response of the Arctic States – especially
those bordering the Arctic Sea – emphasize that
there are a number of fundamental differences
between Antarctica and the Arctic.
First and foremost, the Arctic is inhabited,
Antarctica is not. Another striking feature is the
fact that Antarctica is primarily LAND, while the
Arctic is primarily WATER. Therefore, UNCLOS –
the United Nations Convention on the Law of
the Sea – already provides what is needed in
order to resolve any disputes.
UNCLOS encompasses four principal
conventions that were outlined in 1958, and
have been adopted by different nations since
1973.
- The Convention on the Territorial Sea and
Contiguous Zone: States cannot suspend the
innocent passage of foreign ships through
straits that are used for international navigation
between one part of the high seas and another
part of the high seas or the territorial sea of a
Chapter 7
foreign State. Territorial waters are deemed to
be a belt of coastal waters extending at most
twelve nautical miles from the baseline (usually
the mean low-water mark) of a coastal State.
The territorial sea is regarded as the sovereign
territory of the State, although foreign ships
(both military and civilian) are allowed innocent
passage through it; this sovereignty also extends
to the airspace over and the seabed below.
- The Convention on the Continental Shelf: The
term “continental shelf” refers to the seabed and
the subsoil of the submarine areas adjacent to
the coast, but outside the area of the territorial
sea, to a depth of 200 m or, beyond that limit,
to where the depth of the superjacent waters
allows for the exploitation of the natural
resources of said areas; as well as to the seabed
and subsoil of similar submarine areas adjacent
to the coasts of islands. The coastal State
exercises over the continental shelf sovereign
rights for the purpose of exploring it and
exploiting its natural resources.
- The Convention on the High Seas: The high seas
are open to all nations. No State may validly
attempt to subject any part of the high seas
to its sovereignty. Freedom of the high seas is
exercised under the conditions laid down by the
articles of the convention and by the other rules
of international law. The convention addresses,
inter alia, both for coastal and non-coastal
States: (1) Freedom of navigation; (2) Freedom of
fishing; (3) Freedom to lay submarine cables and
pipelines; (4) Freedom to fly over the high seas.
- The Convention on Fishing and Conservation of
Living Resources of the High Seas: A State whose
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS 111
nationals are engaged in fishing any stock or
stocks of fish or other living marine resources in
any area of the high seas where the nationals of
other States are not thus engaged shall adopt,
for its own nationals, measures in that area when
necessary for the purpose of the conservation of
the living resources affected.
Besides outlining the four principal conventions,
UNCLOS also defines important concepts like:
International waters, Continental shelf, Exclusive
Economic Zone (200 nautical miles), Contiguous
zone (12 nautical miles), Territorial waters (12
nautical miles), Internal waters, and Baseline, all
concepts that have proven useful in connection
with defining the rights and responsibilities of
Member States.
Recognising that resource exploitation in one
zone can harm the options for exploitation in
other zones, an addendum to the convention
on Fishing and Conservation of Living Resources
of the High Seas was introduced in 2001. The
addendum stresses that States should take
measures to protect biodiversity in the marine
environment and to prevent or eliminate over-
fishing and excess fishing capacity and to ensure
that levels of fishing effort do not exceed those
commensurate with the sustainable use of
fishery resources. The addendum also attempts
to take into account the interests of artisanal
and subsistence fishers.
It is important to note that this last sentence
is the first time in UNCLOS where there are
references to stakeholders such as indigenous
groups through the introduction of the two
concepts of artisanal and subsistence fishers –
112 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS Chapter 7
and thereby attempting to recognize that their
interests are not automatically covered through
the interests of Member States.
Subsidiarity as a keyword
There is a need to ensure that the peoples of
the Arctic by means of regional arrangements
or treaties are granted not only a voice, but
also a say through the establishment of
a comprehensive regime – as some have
suggested, a “constitutional contract” – treating
the Arctic as a distinct region in international
society. Classic notions of state sovereignty
cannot adequately address the issue of
sovereignty of peoples.
Instead, the principle of subsidiarity may provide
a useful tool in relation to future governance in
the Arctic, granting the peoples in the Arctic a
voice by treating the Arctic as a distinct region
in international society. The concept has been
an important issue in the “Europe of Regions”,
emphasizing the process of creating an ever-
closer union among the peoples of Europe,
by which decisions are taken as closely as
possible to the citizen in accordance with the
principle of subsidiarity. The political process
in this context is aiming at changing to a less
hierarchical political system, and makes changes
in the political culture necessary. It has been
an open part of the process of regionalization,
emphasizing that such a process should not be
imposed from above, but rather develop upward
from the aspirations and needs of the peoples
affected.
Increased temperatures and changes in climate
are expected to generate more commercial
interest leading to further resource extraction
and exploration, as well as increased shipping
of these products. As the sea ice decreases,
the shipping lanes eventually become more
commercially viable.
Environmental and social impact
The major commercial focus is on two sea lanes.
The Northwest Passage in Northern Canada,
which today is closed for commercial shipping
due to sea ice, is expected to be an important
connection between the Atlantic and the Pacific
regions within a decade or so.
The other option is the Northern Sea Route
north of Russia, which is partly open today, and
which may become the first commercially viable
choice. Negotiations are already taking place.
In both cases, the transport time from Central
Europe to Asia can be shortened by more than
40%, and from Norway to the west coast of
North America by 30%. The increasing piracy
off the coast of Somalia may actually focus even
greater attention on alternative routes. Although
ships with double hulls, which are required
in ice-infested areas, are expensive they may
nonetheless be less expensive in the long run,
given the cost of insurance and the preventative
measures that have been put into place to
address piracy.
Therefore, the Northern Sea Route and the
Northwest Passage are both seen as clear
options for future transport. As previously
frozen areas in the Arctic become seasonally
or permanently navigable, the prospects for
marine transport through the Arctic adds to an
increase in cargo shipping, and opens up the
Chapter 7
potential for an increase in the number of tourist
cruises and passenger vessels in Arctic waters.
Tourism is thus expected to gain from a longer
tourist season in the Arctic. At the same time,
the industry tends to be highly dependent upon
weather conditions, and a more unpredictable
and rainier climate might reduce the
attractiveness of some areas. With the opening
of the Arctic Ocean through the diminishing sea
ice, new possibilities will also open up for the
fisheries.
All the activities enumerated here are of concern
to the Nordic countries, of which only two–
Denmark (through Greenland) and Norway –
are coastal States relative to the Arctic Ocean.
Thus their interests are already protected
and addressed by means of the 200-mile EEZ
established the UNCLOS convention.
The Arctic coastal States collectively and
individually reinforced their sovereign rights
and jurisdiction from their coastlines seaward
through a conference held in Ilulissat, Greenland
in May 2008.
At the conference, a declaration was adopted
that emphasized the following: the unique
relationship of the five coastal nations to the
Arctic; the Law of the Sea treaty should be
considered as the key to the legal framework
for development; the legal framework is best
implemented through national action by
the five coastal States; there is no need for a
comprehensive new legal regime for Arctic
development; and finally “other users” of the
Arctic, i.e., nations that do not use the Arctic,
should not have a role to play in this connection.
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS 113
This distinction between “coastal States”
and “other user” countries was met with
some critique by the other Nordic countries,
who emphasized their historical, as well
as contemporary connection to the Arctic.
Especially Iceland, with an economy based on
the fisheries in the North Atlantic, may become
a key stakeholder with regard to fisheries in the
international waters of the Arctic Ocean, but
similar interests have been expressed by the
other Nordic countries. Fisheries, tourism and
transport are all traditional Nordic activities, and,
because the North Atlantic Region is recognized
as a key stakeholder in the North Atlantic
Region, the countries in this region can be
seen as important players with regard to future
activities in the Arctic Ocean.
A new player in the game
Other potential stakeholders have expressed
concern regarding future access to the region.
During the last few years, the EU has expressed
more and more interest in the Arctic. Climate
change has served as a catalyst for such new
awareness and interest, moving the Arctic higher
up on the EU list of priorities. The European
Parliament has adopted a resolution warning
about the risks to international stability from
the intensifying competition among countries
in the Arctic region, emphasizing the need for
an international treaty for the protection of the
Arctic.
Presently, there are no comprehensive rules
governing how States should act in the Arctic.
There is no overall system for the management
of fish stocks; there is nothing to regulate the
extraction of oil and gas; there is not much
114 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND GEOPOLITICS Chapter 7
guidance on how to settle territorial disputes
that may flare up as the polar ice recedes.
Non-Arctic nations, therefore, are seeking
an enhanced role in the Arctic Council and
asserting Arctic policy strategies of their own.
Becoming an observer to the Arctic Council is
clearly an indicator of an interest in contributing
to policy discussions.
In a review by the Nordic Council of Ministers
regarding the main European Union policies,
it has been stressed how a number of other
EU policies, while not targeting the Arctic as
such, nevertheless impact on it. The regional
perspective of the Northern Dimension remains,
however, the only EU policy with a declared
Arctic component, even though for the most
part its main emphasis has been on various
other elements.
This, however, is changing as the new
opportunities are becoming more obvious. The
Arctic, therefore, is going to take a new place
on the agenda of the European Union, with the
concept of sustainable development becoming
a key element in such an agenda, requiring a
more active interaction with Arctic countries
and co-operation with the Arctic regional bodies
currently in place.
A main source for this chapter: Common Concern for the
Arctic. Report from conference arranged by the Nordic
Council of Ministers 9-10 September 2008, Ilulissat, Green-
land. ANP 2008:750
 The
Loophole
The Banana
Hole Climate Will Change
North Atlantic Fisheries
“The Arctic region is warming, faster on average
than the rest of the planet. This is true for
marine as well as terrestrial areas of the Arctic.
This warming trend is likely to have significant
effects on communities and resources of nations
bordering the Arctic Ocean.”
This statement from the US Bureau of Oceans
and International Environmental and Scientific
Affairs summarizes some facts on which most
international organizations are willing to agree.
The same is true for the next statement from the
same source:
“The composition of Arctic marine ecosystems
will undoubtedly change, both qualitatively and
quantitatively. The range and distribution of at
least some fish stocks that occur in subarctic
regions and in the periphery of the Arctic itself
will likely extend or move into more northerly
areas as waters warm and sea ice retreats. Some
species will, at some stage, disappear and others
will be added.”
As a consequence, the Bureau concludes that
knowledge is limited and more research will be
needed.
Predictability
Where new fishing opportunities will occur,
however, is difficult to predict, and if policies
Chapter 7 Will
and international agreements have to wait
until detailed knowledge has been acquired,
resolutions are decided on and agreements
made, responsible action in relation to the new
challenges may never be taken, or will be taken
too late.
The question of predicting in order to structure
relevant policies, or the question of structuring
relevant policies based on imperfect knowledge
constitutes the real challenge. Relevant
questions are: Where will the new fishing
opportunities occur? Will it be on the high seas
or within coastal State maritime zones? Will it
relate to certain species or categories of species?
Which States - Arctic Ocean coastal States or
other States - will benefit or suffer? How will
subsistence fishing be affected? To what extent
will the predicted reduced ice coverage and
thickness generate other types of activities such
as shipping, offshore hydrocarbon activities or
tourism? And to what extent will these activities
generate competition with fishing in a spatial
sense by making use of the same areas, or
affect them through other impacts? Preliminary
assumptions in relation to these questions need
to be outlined and relevant policy measures
taken.
As emphasized by Kjartan Hoydal, the impact of
current and future Arctic fisheries on the marine
Climate Change
Climate North–Atlantic
change Fisheries 115115
and Transportation
environment and marine biodiversity in the
Arctic is not likely to be fundamentally different
from the observed impact on the marine
environment and biodiversity in other parts of
the globe. Emerging Arctic fisheries could lead
to over-exploitation of target species – and a
variety of consequences for non-target species,
such as dependent species because of predator-
prey relationships, or associated species due
to by-catch, as well as benthic species as a
consequence of bottom fishing techniques and
effort. In this respect, existing organisations
such as ICES, NEAF, NAFO, etc., will be capable of
outlining the relevant measures that will enable
proper policies to be developed.
Four sea pockets
In line with Hoydal, Molenaar stresses how in
the Arctic marine area, important fish stocks
exist that support extensive subsistence and
commercial capture fisheries, and that several
international mechanisms already are in place
to manage these fisheries. As these fisheries
extend or shift farther north, however, at least
some of the management mechanisms will
need to adapt to facilitate management of
more northerly areas. This involves subsistence
small scale fisheries and especially sea mammal
hunting at levels that have been unprecedented
farther south.
Another characteristic of northern waters
stressed by Molenaar is the four distinct enclaves
or so-called “high-seas pockets” in the Arctic
region: the Banana Hole in the Norwegian Sea,
the Loop Hole in the Barents Sea, the Donut
Hole in the central Bering Sea area, and the
central Arctic Ocean, which would be a new area
116 Climate Will Change North Atlantic Fisheries
available for fisheries when the ice eventually
disappears. They are positioned beyond the
200 mile EEZ of the Arctic coastal States, which
entitles the areas to be designated as high seas
and therefore entitled to the freedoms of access
defined under UNCLOS (see chapter 7) as well
as being common heritage of mankind through
the International Sea-bed Authority (ISA).
There are, however, presently no international
management mechanisms for fisheries north
of the Bering Strait or for much of the high
seas area in the centre of the Arctic Ocean. A
series of conferences on climate change and
fisheries indicate that the prospect of large-scale
commercial fisheries in the Arctic Ocean is not a
short-term development, but requires a long-
term commitment.
To be prepared
In this context, Kjartan Hoydal emphasizes
that it is important to be prepared for the new
situation, and that stakeholders should begin
looking into what issues sould be addressed
in order to be ready for the conservation and
management of future fisheries in the Arctic.
A key issue in this connection would be the
outlining of a general framework for a procedure
that enables the inclusion of the norms and
standards established through the existing
organizations (UNCLOS, ISA) and other relevant
instruments.
An important issue that is emphasized by the
author is the fact that indigenous communities
that live along or near the Arctic marine
area are particularly dependent on marine
living resources and may become more so
in the future. So an inclusion of indigenous
communities in policy discussions about the
future management of Arctic fisheries provides
the potential to maintain traditional links
between these people and the living marine
resources.
The Fisheries Working Group of the Arctic
Transform Group has developed the following
set of norms and standard that would be
important to present to relevant governments
with the goal of reaffirming the applicability of
these norms and standards to the Arctic:
· Acknowledge the potential expansion of
commercial fisheries in the Arctic;
· Acknowledge the subsistence needs
of indigenous communities that are
traditionally dependent on marine living
resources;
· Make a commitment to undertake or
enhance cooperative research efforts to
assess the likely expansion of such fisheries
in the Arctic and the potential effects of
such fisheries on marine ecosystems and
indigenous communities;
· Recall that there already exists a body of
general norms and standards pertaining
to international fisheries arising from
international agreements and other
instruments, including relevant resolutions
by the United Nation’s General Assembly;
· Affirm that those norms and standards apply
in the Arctic, as they do elsewhere;
· Declare that they will not conduct new
commercial fisheries or expand existing
commercial fisheries in the Arctic until they
have undertaken adequate assessment of
the potential impacts of such fisheries on
Chapter
target and non-target species, on the marine
ecosystem(s) as a whole, on the subsistence
needs of indigenous communities and have
developed conservation and management
measures to ensure that such fisheries are
sustainable; and
· Consider the development of new
multilateral mechanisms for conserving
and managing future Arctic fisheries,
including a possible Arctic Regional
Fisheries Management Organization (or
organizations).
To return to the starting point: While the
statements put forward by US Bureau of Oceans
and International Environmental and Scientific
Affairs summarizes some international facts that
most international organizations are willing to
agree on, the statement does not lead to action.
In contrast, the above list outlines a number of
actions that are necessary in order to meet the
future challenges of the changes generated
through climate change.
The case is based on the following sources: David Balton
and Kjartan Hoydal (chairs): Policy Options for Arctic Envi-
ronmental Governance. Prepared by the Fisheries Working
Group, Arctic Transform, March 5, 2009 | E.J. Molenaar,
2009, Arctic Fisheries Conservation and Management: Initial
Steps of Reform of the International Legal Framework.
Yearbook of Polar Law, University of Akureyri, March 2009
| Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and
Scientific Affairs, 2009 | Arctic Fisheries. http://www.state.
gov/g/oes/ocns/fish/regionalorganizations/arctic/index.
htm
Climate7WillClimate
Changechange
North Atlantic Fisheries 117117
– and Transportation
 CHAPTER 8
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LOCAL RESPONSE

· The challenges of ongoing climate change
will continue to impact the future of
communities in the North Atlantic, and
therefore require action at different levels:
locally, regionally, nationally, and through
Nordic region cooperation.
· Positioning of the North Atlantic Region
within an international context is needed,
and cooperation with neighbouring areas
has started, including the EU, which is
focusing more and more on the Region and
the Arctic in general.
· Scientists now agree that climate change
has been accelerated by human activities
and a slow and cumbersome geopolitical
decision-making process. To prevent further
acceleration and to actually reduce CO2
emissions, more aggressive geopolitical
action is required that promotes renewable
energy resources and better management of
the living resources of the Region.
· A program aimed at restoring wetlands in
Iceland illustrates how a local initiative can
change the land-use pattern in order to reduce
the release of methane and make these CO2-
sink areas more ecologically viable.

Chapter 8 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LOCAL RESPONSE 119

T he challenges of ongoing changes in climate
are party generated by human activities
– and therefore human initiative is needed to
prevent further acceleration.
The changes in climate are impacting future life
in the North Atlantic, and it requires action at
different levels in order to effectively address
these changes:
· At the international and national level in
order to reach common agreements on
which means and measures are to be
applied in order to reach common goals.
· At the regional level in order to meet the
challenges where they are most profoundly
observed. As discussed above, the general
trends of development may manifest
themselves in specific directions, but the
regional variations in, for example, general
temperature increases may manifest as
cooling in some regions and extreme
warming in others.
· At the local level because it is generally
acknowledged that mitigation of climate
change requires local involvement and the
taking of local responsibility. In the end, it
is the local populations that are confronted
with the changes, and consequently it will,
to a large extent, be up to them to take
action.
Local and regional involvement
The question of vulnerability and adaptation
are much more in focus in today’s local climate
debate than previously, where energy issues
120 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LOCAL RESPONSE Chapter 8
and sustainable development in the context
of Agenda 21 have been the major issues of
concern.
It has become clear that, in a local context,
climate adaptation and mitigation are likely to
be part of the same discussion. For instance,
around 40% of national greenhouse gas
emissions are the result of decisions taken
directly by individuals. Through their purchasing
decisions, individuals are responsible for a
further fraction of emissions incurred elsewhere
in the economy. Therefore, a focus on the role
of individuals and of communities is central to
both regional and national agendas on climate
change.
Although national and international policy
initiatives play a major role in defining the
playing field for local policy actors, horizontal
networks are becoming increasingly important
and becoming a challenge in the context of
national and international climate politics to
include participatory approaches and the role of
local mitigation and adaptation actions.
As a tradition of including local communities
in the decision-making process continues
to develop, issues of experience and “best
practices” scenarios become more and more
relevant in the wider discussion of climate
change. This is well illustrated when plans
addressing climate change and the environment
are sent to hearing at both regional and local
levels. An example from the Sogn and Fjordane
area in Norway shows how municipalities that
are at the forefront of adaptation planning help
to inspire other communities. In this context,
a relevant next step approach would be the
creation of networks that could serve as a bridge
between policies and practitioners in the region,
and that could also implement outreach links to
the rest of the world.
The concept of multilevel governance is an
approach emphasizing the need for a way to link
local, national, and international climate policy
and mitigation planning and implementation
strategies. In this connection, the necessity
of involving local communities becomes
even more apparent. In this setting, the West
Nordic region again is able to demonstrate
potential solutions to issues of inclusion, as
local community involvement has long been
the traditional practice in the region, and
has provided a firm foundation for resolving
complex issues of development and adaptation
strategies.
A key requirement for future success is to
establish a clear and realistic sense of collective
agency that motivates and helps justify and
validate individual and group action. In this
connection, governments should review their
current and planned policies, programmes and
funded organizations to assess to what extent
they are jointly creating the conditions required
for successful community-based initiatives,
and to take into account the likely need for
organizations to take the issue to individuals
and communities. In facilitating this, an effort to
build networks for communicating local climate
adaptation and mitigation would be useful, and
in the Nordic setting the CIRCLE-ERA-Net is an
example of such an approach. The challenge in
this connection is to be able to take advantage
Chapter 8
of different regional circumstances to develop
strong comparative approaches in national, as
well as regional, settings.
With climate change at the top of the global
agenda, the North Atlantic Region has
moved from the periphery into the very
centre of international political debate. In
acknowledgement of this international
attention, NORA has resolved to serve as a
facilitator of increased collaboration among
its member regions – Greenland, Iceland, the
Faroe Islands and coastal Norway – as well as
facilitating an ever-increasing collaboration on
common challenges with the countries and
areas neighbouring the NORA Region.
With 60% of the NORA Region covered by sea,
a regional collaboration on issues related to
the sea environment – over-exploitation of fish
stocks, reduced biodiversity, changes in water
temperature, sustainable utilization of marine
resources, etc. – constitutes one such common
challenge of paramount importance. However,
the environmental challenges anticipated on
land are also shared by communities across the
region – e.g., to establish a sustainable energy
supply to remote and sparsely-populated coastal
communities – and, therefore, call for increased
regional collaboration with the involvement of
local communities.
Joint efforts of the Nordic Countries
In discussions among the Nordic countries, it
has been made abundantly clear that the Nordic
Region is strongly committed to international
co-operation on climate change. The Nordic
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LOCAL RESPONSE 121
Region has stressed it aims to become a pioneer
and provide a positive example in climate
change mitigation.
As a consequence, co-operation regarding
issues of climate change plays a central role
in overall Nordic co-operation. In the context
of sustainable development, for example, the
fundamental need to advance knowledge in
the areas of energy, environmental policies,
and globalization initiatives is being continually
stressed as especially relevant and important.
Joint Nordic working groups have been set up
to attempt to influence international climate
policy. One avenue in that regard is the joint
declaration on climate change issued by the
Nordic prime ministers. The declaration focuses
on following up on international climate
agreements, developing instruments to reduce
harmful emissions, and developing the Region
as a pioneer in climate work by stressing that the
Nordic countries work toward bringing about
an ambitious global agreement at the Climate
Change Conference in Copenhagen in 2009.
In this connection, the goal of taking special
action in a number of fields has been identified:
· Greenhouse gas emissions to be halted no
later than 2020 through an obligation for the
industrialized countries to make substantial
emission reductions in the medium term,
and through action in developing countries
that lays a clear foundation for the transition
to low-emission societies.
· National plans to be consistent with the
long-term objective of a global temperature
rise of no more than 2 degrees and a global
122 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LOCAL RESPONSE Chapter 8
reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
of at least 50% by 2050, according to the
principle of common, but differentiated,
responsibilities.
· COP15 must strive to adopt an agreement
pointing the way to achieving these
ambitious aims in both the short and long
term, and following up on the agreement
by implementing concrete initiatives and
policies that contribute to the transition
to green economies and sustainable
development.
· Adaptation and reduction to be supported
by measures, funded in part by affluent
countries, that climate-proof the poorest and
most vulnerable countries, and that facilitate
measurable emission reductions. This
involves the setting up of an international
carbon dioxide market, as a follow up to the
establishment of a European carbon dioxide
market.
· The focus by the Nordic countries on
climate-friendly solutions to be intensified
in order to take the lead in building low-
emission societies.
· Frontier research initiatives to be supported.
This should take place by investing in
research on climate solutions in the fields
of energy efficiency, wind power and other
renewable energy sources, and by being
open to cross-border co-operation, which
should include developing countries.
· Green transport should be given priority in
order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions
from the transport sector by means of
greater energy efficiency and new energy
system solutions.
In 2008, the Nordic Council of Ministers adopted and co-operation between the EU and Nordic
a new environment action programme for the governments, as well as regional organizations
period 2009–2012. Joint Nordic climate co- representing the North Atlantic and the Arctic
operation is playing a central role in this action region.
programme. The programme is supplemented
and enhanced by a special Nordic strategy
regarding climate change and environment
pollutants in the Arctic region.

Positioning of the North Atlantic Region in an

international setting is clearly needed, and
co-operation with the neighbouring areas has
started, just as the EU is beginning to show
interest in the region and in the Arctic.

The regional perspective of the Northern

Dimension has as yet been the only EU policy
with a declared Arctic component. However, in a
review by the Nordic Council of Ministers of the
main European Union policies, it was stressed
how a number of other EU policies, while not
specifically targeting the Arctic and the North
Atlantic Region as such, nevertheless impact
on it.

Without a doubt, climate change has served as

a catalyst for a new awareness and interest in
the North Atlantic Region, moving the Region,
as well as the Arctic, higher up on the EU list
of priorities. Becoming an observer to the
Arctic Council is clearly an indicator of this new
interest.
In this chapter the following documents have been the main
The Region, therefore, is destined to take a new source: Nordic network on community response to climate
and more extensive position on the European change. Circle Sogndal minutes | Nordic Prime Ministers’
Union agenda, with the concept of sustainable Declaration on Climate Change, 16 June 2009 | Nordiska
development becoming a key item on such ministerrådets miljøhandlingsprogram 2009-2012. B 257/
an agenda. This will require more interaction miljø.

Chapter 8 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND LOCAL RESPONSE 123

 Wetlands Restoration as
Climate Impact Mitigation
Eyrarbakki
As mentioned in previous chapters of the
book, wetlands worldwide are among the most
important carbon sinks. Wetlands in this context
are areas where water is present on or near the
surface. Besides functioning as carbon sinks and
contributing to biological diversity, wetlands at
the same time are important habitats for birds,
just as they may help in controlling floods in
exposed places.
One of the consequences of drying the
wetlands, as well as melting the permafrost, is
the generation of huge amounts of greenhouse
gases. The restoration of wetlands, on the other
hand, may become a future asset in connection
with emission reduction initiatives. According
to IPS, wetlands –which include peat land –
account for about 6% and 3% of the earth’s
surface, respectively, and estimates show that
more carbon dioxide is released when wetlands
are disturbed or destroyed than when forests are
cut down. The soil itself, but especially bogs and
peat, contains dead plant materials with a very
high content of carbon. Remaining undisturbed
and with a high content of water preventing
access to oxygen, the areas can serve as an
excellent container for the carbon. Historically,
both bogs and especially peat have been
useful for heating and cooking. Wetlands may
turn out to be even more useful as storage for
some of the carbon that presently seems to be
responsible for changes in the climate.
124 Wetlands Restoration as Climate Impact Mitigation
Vast areas in Iceland
The function of wetlands as potential carbon
sinks has been recognized by all the Nordic
countries, and maintenance of the wetlands has
been taken forward as a potential contribution
to climate change mitigation in most of the
national strategies. The question of maintaining
and restoring the wetlands has been identified
as an important issue for the West Nordic
region in connection with the United Nations
Climate Conference, COP15, in Copenhagen,
December 2009. Such restoration may become
an important contribution from the region to
future CO2 reductions. Iceland has been one of
the promoters of such a strategy in a variety of
settings.
The Ministry of Environment and the Ministry
of Agriculture and Fishery are both members of
the international LULUCF (Land use, land-use
change and forestry) dialogue, which according
to the official definition is a greenhouse gas
inventory sector looking into emissions and
possible removal of greenhouse gases that
are related to human-induced land use, land-
use change and forestry activities. In this
connection, the Icelandic participants have
been emphasizing that vast areas of land in
Iceland have undergone extensive deforestation
and subsequent vegetation degradation and
soil erosion since the beginning of human

The role of wetlands has changed. Previously targeted for
drainage as potential agricultural areas, the process is now
reversed in order to create carbon sinks and nature reserves.
Photo: Rasmus Ole Rasmussen
settlement in the ninth century. According
to the official numbers as much as 95% of its
original mountain birch woodlands and forests
have disappeared. An analysis completed in
1997 revealed that serious soil erosion still
characterizes about 40% of the country. Humans
are without doubt primarily responsible for
the losses. Forest clearance and agricultural
activities are important activities. In the case of
Iceland especially the tradition of free ranging
sheep grazing is very important, as it acts as a
hindrance to the natural regeneration of birch
in both lowlands and in mountain areas. Some
of the long-term impacts of the introduction
of both agriculture and herding in the North
Atlantic Region has been presented in the first
chapters of the book. In this connection, the
impact of changes in climate – for instance,
Wetlands Restoration as Climate Impact Mitigation
the Little Ice Age and its colder climate over
several centuries - made the forest ecosystems
more vulnerable and contributed to opening
up vast land areas to severe soil erosion that still
today is recognized as being Iceland’s greatest
environmental problem.
Overexploitation
The draining of mires, bogs and peat lands
might have been important during a specific
historical period where land availability was a
question of survival. It is clear, however, that
carbon dioxide emissions from drained wetlands
generally increase with increasing drainage
depth and warmer climates. Reversal of the
process, however, regenerates the biological
processes that leads to a recovery of the areas.
The process of oxidation can be halted by
restoring the hydrology and rewetting the land.
As emphasized by the LULUCF-group legislation
aimed at halting what, in this context, can be
characterized as “destructive forces” was passed
in 1907 (“Act on Forestry and Mitigation of
Soil Erosion”). The goal was to halt soil erosion
and promote the conservation of existing
woodlands, as well as the expansion of forest
and woodland cover through afforestation.
Counter to this initiative, the last 50 years has
seen the extensive drainage of wetlands for
the purpose of establishing fields for intensive
crop production and grazing areas. According
to the LULUCF-report, as much as 80-90% of all
wetlands have been affected in some areas. Due
to low productivity and harsh market conditions
for agriculture, however, only a small portion is
at present actually cultivated.
125
Soil conservation
The reduced interest in maintaining former
wetlands as agricultural areas has opened up
the possibility of new conservation measures.
As emphasized by the LULUCF-group, a large
proportion of the Icelandic farmers and a great
number of individuals, municipalities and
NGOs have been involved in soil conservation,
revegetation and afforestation initiatives during
the last decade. Besides the reduced economic
interest in the areas, many Icelandic farmers are
confronted with the problems of soil erosion
and land degradation, and therefore are also
interested in the activity, as a means of fighting
this degradation of the land.
Accordingly, therefore, many farmers have
chosen to give up traditional farming. Some
have turned to organic farming, which has
a more limited impact on the soil compared
to traditional activity. Many have decided to
participate in extensive reforestation and land
rehabilitation projects, usually organized in
cooperation with the Soil Conservation Service
and the Forestry Service. According to the
official statistics, around 700 farms are currently
participating in different activities related to
the largest land rehabilitation project named
“Farmers Heal the Land” (Bændur græða landið),
where about 600 farms are participating.
Local initiatives
In a complex natural and social enviorment,
a propper framework for landscape planning
is necessary.Trausti Valsson points to several
problems in connection with planning in
Iceland, emphasizing that success is only partly
determined by official programmes. Local
126 Wetlands Restoration as Climate Impact Mitigation
involvement is critical. An example of such a
case is the restoration of former wetlands near
the southern Icelandic town of Eyrarbakki.
The area was the base of intensive agricultural
development during the 1920s, which led to
extensive construction of ditches and small
bridges. The restoration of the area took off
when the project received a grant, leading
the community to start a reclaimation of the
wetland, and the creation of a bird reserve in Flói
by the estuary of the Ölfusá River.
The farmers provided the land and local people
blocked the ditches to stop water draining away.
The nature reserve is today dotted with small
lakes and ponds, and vestiges of the irrigation
project completed in the 1920s are still visible in
many places.
It provides thereby what some have
characterized as “the best of three worlds” –
preservation of natural diversity, improved
carbon storage, and conservation of a cultural
heritage that is an important part of the history
of Icelandic wetlands.
For this case, the following literature sources have been
used: Iceland Ministry for the Environment and Ministry of
Fisheries and Agriculture, 2008: Third Informal Dialogue on
the Role of Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry in the
Climate Change Response. Reykjavik, Iceland | Trausti Vals-
son, 2003: Planning in Iceland. Háskólaútgáfan, University
of Iceland, Reykjavik.
NORA and Nordregio
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH
ATLANTIC is published by Nordic Atlantic
Cooperation (NORA) and edited in collaboration
with Nordregio (Nordic Centre for Spatial
Development).
Nordic Atlantic Cooperation (NORA) is an
intergovernmental agency financed by the
Nordic Council of Ministers. Its activities are
supplemented by grants from within the
various collaborating regions: the Faroe Islands,
Greenland, Iceland and the west coast of
Norway.
Since 1996, NORA has been a driving force in
the strengthening of cooperation within the
North Atlantic Region with the goal of making
the North Atlantic a powerful Nordic region,
known for its strong, sustainable economic
development. In addition, in recent years NORA
has developed into an attractive platform for
enhanced Nordic collaboration with the region’s
neighbours to the west.
The collaboration goals of NORA are advanced
by:
· Providing forums for political and
professional discussions of North Atlantic
issues and the development of joint
strategies and initiatives.
NORA and Nordregio
· Strengthening cross-border cooperation
among businesses, as well as research
and development organizations and
institutions, by providing financial support
for collaboration projects, etc.
The main secretariat for NORA is located in
Tórshavn, the capital of the Faroe Islands.
Regional secretariats are situated in Iceland,
Greenland and Norway.
Nordregio (Nordic Centre for Spatial Development)
is an international research and knowledge
development institute established in 1997 and
partly funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers.
Nordregio operates at the border of research
and policy-making, which gives the institute a
unique position within its field as a broker of
knowledge within a Nordic as well as a European
context. Nordregio’s ability to carry out applied
research is aided by the institute being tightly
connected to government policymakers
through a unique combination of research
and two-way exchanges between researchers
and practitioners that constitute a part of the
activities of Nordregio Academy.
From a thematic point of view, Nordregio
addresses the following areas of interest:
territorial dynamics and policies, spatial
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC 127
knowledge dynamics, and society and the
environment.

Nordregio’s activities are organized in cross-

disciplinary projects, often in collaboration with
researchers, policymakers and practitioners
in several countries and regions. The North
Atlantic Region or Norden is the obvious central
geographical dimension in this work. In addition,
Nordregio´s work forcuses on Europe, the Baltic
Sea Region, the Arctic and neighbouring areas.

128 CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC NORA and Nordregio
CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC provides a comprehensive insight into
the consequences of climate change for the North Atlantic region. The book takes a
special look at regional consequences with regard to the sea, the land, the people, the
natural living resources, transport and geopolitics.

CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC does not attempt to paint an alarm-
ist picture. The North Atlantic Region has in the past faced challenges comparable to
the present situation, and has coped with these challenges. In many situations, the
challenges it faced led to marked changes in the way of life for the peoples of the
region. Sometimes the challenges were met with remarkable innovation; other times
drastic measures were implemented. This book dares to discuss the risks, as well as
the opportunities, that a changing climate will bring to the North Atlantic Region in
the future.

CLIMATE CHANGE – AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC is published by NORA (Nordic Atlantic
Cooperation) and focuses on the NORA Region comprising Greenland, Iceland, the
Faroe Islands and coastal Norway. The book is edited in collaboration with Nordregio
(Nordic Centre for Spatial Development).