Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Edited by the
Manual of Ideas
Research Team
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Table of Contents
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NEW OR INCREASED SUPERINVESTOR HOLDINGS ............................. 66
AFRICAN BARRICK GOLD (UK: ABG) – GREENLIGHT ......................................................... 66
AON CORP. (AON) – BREEDEN , FPA , SOUTHEASTERN , WEITZ ............................... 70
BALLY TECHNOLOGIES (BYI) – BREEDEN ............................................................................. 74
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY (CHK) – BP CAPITAL , ICAHN , SOUTHEASTERN ............................ 78
ENSCO (ESV) – BLUE RIDGE , EAGLE , GREENLIGHT , ICAHN ............................ 82
ESTEE LAUDER (EL) – LONE PINE , VIKING .................................................................... 86
GAMESTOP (GME) – CENTAUR .......................................................................................... 90
MBIA (MBI) – FAIRFAX , FAIRHOLME .......................................................................... 94
NALCO HOLDING (NLC) – BERKSHIRE , MSD ................................................................... 98
NCR CORP. (NCR) – GREENLIGHT ................................................................................ 102
SERVICE CORP. INTERNATIONAL (SCI) – SOUTHEASTERN ................................................... 106
TEVA PHARMA (TEVA) – BLUE RIDGE , EAGLE , MARKEL , MAVERICK ..................... 110
TREE.COM (TREE) – SECOND CURVE , WEITZ ................................................................ 114
VODAFONE (VOD) – CENTAUR , EAGLE , FPA , KLEINHEINZ , SOUTHEASTERN .... 118
XERIUM TECHNOLOGIES (XRM) – THIRD POINT ............................................................... 122
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Editor’s Commentary
What a summer it’s been! With Mr. Market wholly lacking in generosity of
spirit, we hope you’ve at least found some time to relax and enjoy the company of
family and friends.
We are pleased to be back with another Superinvestor Issue, surveying the top
ideas of some of the most successful investors in the business. Starting with this
report, we are more than doubling our coverage of superinvestor buys and sells.
Inside, you’ll find us analyzing the portfolios of 50+ investment managers. New
additions include John Griffin’s Blue Ridge, Boone Pickens’s BP Capital, Boykin
Curry’s Eagle Capital, Bob Rodriguez’s First Pacific Advisors, Larry Robbins’s
Glenview, Phil Falcone’s Harbinger, and Lee Ainsle’s Maverick, to name a few. For
each of the 50+ investment firms, we show not only their latest top holdings by
quoted value but also based on our proprietary Signal Rank™ methodology. The
latter aims to answer the question, What are this investor’s best ideas right now?
Of all the superinvestor holdings we came across while researching this report,
the following five companies struck as particularly interesting, timely opportunities:
African Barrick Gold (UK: ABG; $9 per ADS; MV $4 billion) is a carve-out
of the Tanzanian assets of Barrick Gold (ABX), which sold a quarter of ABG in an
IPO this past March. The new public company appears to have been overlooked by
investors and represents one of the cheapest ways to invest in a gold miner with a
large base of exploration assets. ABG’s enterprise value implies a purchase price of
roughly $200 per ounce of proved and probable gold reserves. The company’s cash
cost is roughly $500-550 per ounce, leaving a handsome “profit spread” for those
investing in ABG at recent prices. Another positive feature of ABG is the company’s
net cash position of more than $300 million, which should enable management to
increase production without raising additional equity capital. Finally, management
incentives are better aligned with those of shareholders now that ABG is a stand-
alone public company. A reason investors may have overlooked the company is
ABG’s high proportion of probable relative to proved reserves. This makes the
shares appear less attractively priced when viewed solely from the standpoint of
proved gold resources. However, ABG resource base is well-defined and offers
opportunities for multi-year production growth. David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital
purchased a stake in ABG during the second quarter.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK; $20 per share; MV $13 billion) has for some time
been synonymous with the vast untapped opportunity in U.S. onshore natural gas
shale plays. As gas prices have remained depressed relative to oil prices longer than
most expected, it appears many investors have slowly but surely given up on the
company. While the near-term outlook for natural gas remains unfavorable, the
underlying value of Chesapeake’s assets and the lagging stock price have once again
attracted considerable superinvestor interest. Famed oil and gas investor Boone
Pickens more than doubled his fund’s stake in Chesapeake during the second quarter.
Carl Icahn’s firm boosted its position from two million to nearly 13 million shares,
while Mason Hawkins’s Southeastern Asset Management slightly added to its stake,
which amounts to a considerable 12% of Chesapeake. Only David Winters’s mutual
fund went against the grain, selling out of a relatively small position. Our analysis of
Chesapeake suggests that the value of proved reserves alone may be sufficient to
justify the recent stock price, based on NYMEX strip pricing. When one considers
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Vodafone (VOD; $23; MV $124 billion), the mobile communications services
provider with a global presence, continues to sell roughly 30% below our fair value
estimate, implying roughly 50% share price upside for a stable company with a 6%
dividend yield. The dividend payout is supported by the company’s free cash flow
generation even excluding any contribution from Vodafone’s 45% ownership of
Verizon Wireless. This stake in the number one U.S. mobile operator may be
Vodafone’s single most valuable asset, and we believe the market’s continued
ignorance of its value provides an interesting investment opportunity (the financials
of Verizon Wireless are not consolidated on Vodafone’s financial statements, as
Verizon exercises control over the jointly owned company). An upward re-rating of
Vodafone shares could come following a resumption of cash distributions from
Verizon Wireless beyond the recent level of tax pass-throughs. Regardless of how
Verizon Wireless and other unconsolidated assets are monetized, Vodafone’s sum-
of-the-parts valuation implies that the consolidated business trades at 4-5x trailing
EBITDA. This appears too low given Vodafone’s strong European market share,
growth prospects in emerging markets, and margin improvement potential. Vodafone
attracted significant superinvestor interest during the second quarter, with Francis
Chou, Mason Hawkins and John Kleinheinz initiating new positions in the company,
and Zeke Ashton, Boykin Curry and Bob Rodriguez increasing existing positions.
David Einhorn appears to have maintained Greenlight’s stake in Vodafone.
For those of you looking for a superinvestor-owned gem in the micro-cap space,
we point to Tree.com (TREE; $7 per share; MV $80 million), a technology-driven
provider of online services to U.S. real estate industry participants. The company
owns the popular LendingTree and RealEstate.com websites, yet trades roughly in
line with net liquid assets. Founder and CEO Doug Lebda owns 14% of Tree.com,
having purchased a substantial chunk of shares last year. Lebda appears both capable
and focused on growing shareholder value, a combination that could produce long-
term rewards for investors.
Finally, we are pleased to bring you an exclusive interview with Ken Shubin
Stein, founder of Spencer Capital. Ken is a highly regarded deep value investor who
an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School. In the interview, Ken provides
valuable insight into various aspects of his investment philosophy and shares his
latest view on Sears Holdings (SHLD).
Sincerely,
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The Manual of Ideas research team is gratified to have won high praise for our
investment idea generation process and analytical work.
“The Manual of Ideas is a tremendous effort and very well put together.”
—MOHNISH PABRAI, MANAGING PARTNER, PABRAI INVESTMENT FUNDS
“Outstanding.”
—JONATHAN HELLER, CFA, EDITOR, CHEAP STOCKS
“Very impressive.”
—SHAI DARDASHTI, MANAGING PARTNER, DARDASHTI CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
“It’s little surprise MOI is a winner. When you start with superior stock screening and
combine it with good judgment, you put yourself in a great position to outperform.”
—MARKO VUCEMILOVIC, FOUNDER AND MANAGING DIRECTOR, ALKAR GLOBAL
“This is the best institutional-quality equity research to come along in a long time.”
—PAVEL SAVOR, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF FINANCE, THE WHARTON SCHOOL
“Wonderful.”
—TOM GAYNER, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, MARKEL CORP.
“Keep up the great work, you are quickly becoming one of my must-read sources.”
—CORY JANSSEN, FOUNDER, INVESTOPEDIA.COM
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Exclusive Interview with Ken Shubin Stein
This month we bring you our interview with Dr. Kenneth Shubin Stein, CFA,
founder of Spencer Capital Management. Shubin Stein is an adjunct professor at
Columbia Business School and a frequent speaker on value investing topics.
In 2000, Shubin Stein founded Kenshu, the predecessor to the Spencer Capital
Opportunity Fund, which was formed in 2003. Prior to founding Compo, Shubin
Stein was a medical technology analyst for The Abernathy Group. Shubin Stein
is a graduate of the Albert Einstein College of Medicine where he completed a
five-year medical and research program with a focus on molecular genetics. He
graduated with a B.A. degree from Columbia College in 1991. Shubin Stein
serves on the board of HelpUSA and is the leader of HelpNYC.
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So the question is, while recognizing that more experience is generally
better than less, what aspects of innocence should aspiring investment managers
seek to preserve? I think it’s helpful for all of us who are professional managers
to periodically think about our true goals in the business, and what we are doing
in order to achieve those goals. Are we constantly learning? Are we improving
or are we being pushed by experience and fear into behavior that will put us in
the middle of the pack versus are we continually trying to push the needle and
be excellent and continue to learn, even if that has some near-term costs?
I’m reminded of the many value investors in the late 1990s during the tech
bubble. When that was occurring, a lot of us felt this tremendous pressure
because we were investing in solid, profitable companies at extremely good
prices, but the market was valuing tech companies with no earnings at far higher
prices. Lots of managers were faced with a choice: start buying things that broke
the discipline of value investing because that was what investors clamored for
— or lose your investors. Some managers changed their style, bought tech
companies during the bubble and ended up maintaining their investors and
losing capital. Some did the reverse —we didn’t buy tech companies, and we
ended up losing some our clients, and I think that’s a choice that many of us are
faced with during our careers.
MOI: What books have you read in recent years that have stood out as valuable
“…while recognizing that additions to your investment library?
more experience is generally Shubin Stein: There are a couple of extremely good books I’ve read recently,
better than less, what aspects and I’ll list the authors because some of them have multiple books.
of innocence should aspiring
investment managers seek to Whitney Tilson and Glen Tongue’s book about the stock market crash and
preserve? Are we improving how to profit from it was excellent, both because it gave superb ideas and it
or are we being pushed by highlighted that even after something starts to unfold, there’s the opportunity to
do work, develop a variant perception, and profit from it.
experience and fear into
behavior that will put us in Mohnish Pabrai books are excellent investment books for both amateurs
the middle of the pack…?” and professionals.
James Montier’s books are superb for anybody interested in behavioral
finance, which, in my opinion, should be all of us in this business.
The Big Short by Michael Lewis and Fooling Some of the People All of the
Time by David Einhorn are must reads for everybody, both because they
highlight a lot about what is important in investing and they give us an insight
into how the capital markets and the government in the United States work.
MOI: Ken, thank you very much.
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50+ Portfolios With Signal Value™ Top investors included in this section:
Revealing the Top Ideas of Top Investors • Bill Ackman, Pershing Square
• Lee Ainsle, Maverick
• Chuck Akre, Akre Capital
“Signal value” as opposed to “noise.” We present the • Zeke Ashton, Centaur Capital
holdings of some of the world’s top investors. We look for • Brian Bares, Bares Capital
• Bruce Berkowitz, Fairholme
investors who have amassed impressive track records over
• Richard Breeden, Breeden Capital
long periods of time. We choose these investors carefully • Tom Brown, Second Curve
to avoid the noise inherent in most 13F-HR filings. • Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway
• Francis Chou, Chou Associates
MOI Signal Rank answers the question, “What are • Chase Coleman, Tiger Global
• James Crichton, Scout
this investor’s top ten ideas right now?” Rather than
• Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg, Leucadia
simply presenting each investor’s largest holdings as of the • Boykin Curry, Eagle
recently filed quarter end, the MOI’s proprietary • David Einhorn, Greenlight
• Phil Falcone, Harbinger
methodology ranks the companies in each investor’s • Alan Fournier, Pennant
portfolio based on the investor’s current level of conviction • Glenn Fuhrman and John Phelan, MSD Capital
• Jeffrey Gates, Gates Capital
in each holding, as judged by the MOI. • Tom Gayner, Markel Gayner
• Kian Ghazi, Hawkshaw
Our proprietary methodology takes into account a
• Ed Gilhuly and Scott Stuart, Sageview
number of variables, including the size of a position in an • Glenn Greenberg, Brave Warrior
investor’s portfolio, the size of a position relative to the • John Griffin, Blue Ridge
• Howard Guberman, Gruss
market value of the corresponding company, the most recent • Andreas Halvorsen, Viking Global
quarterly change in the number of shares owned, and the • Mason Hawkins, Southeastern
• Lance Helfert and Paul Orfalea, West Coast
change in the stock price of a position since the most recent • Chris Hohn, Children’s Investment Fund
quarterly filing date. • Carl Icahn, Icahn
• Rehan Jaffer, H Partners
For example, an investor might have the most • Seth Klarman, Baupost
conviction in a position that is only the tenth-largest • John Kleinheinz, Kleinheinz Capital
• Eddie Lampert, ESL Investments
position in such investor’s portfolio. This might be the • Dan Loeb, Third Point
case if an investor invests in a small company, resulting in • Steve Mandel, Lone Pine
• Sandy Nairn, Edinburgh Partners
a holding that is simply too small to rank highly based on
• Mohnish Pabrai, Pabrai Funds
size alone. On the other hand, such a holding might • John Paulson, Paulson & Co.
represent 19.9% of the shares outstanding of the subject • Boone Pickens, BP Capital
• Mark Rachesky, MHR
company, suggesting a high level of conviction. Our • Lisa Rapuano, Lane Five
estimate of the conviction level would rise further if the • Larry Robbins, Glenview
• Bob Rodriguez and Steven Romick, First Pacific
subject company has a 20% poison-pill threshold, thereby • Wilbur Ross, WL Ross
suggesting that the investor has bought as much of the • Chris Shumway, Shumway Capital
• David Tepper, Appaloosa
subject company as is practically feasible.
• Peter Thiel, Clarium
• Prem Watsa, Fairfax
• Wally Weitz, Weitz Funds
• David Winters, Wintergreen
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Akre Capital (Chuck Akre)
Chuck Akre has been in the investment business since 1968. While sometimes viewed as a small cap growth manager, Akre
follows a value strategy that focuses on returns on equity, management quality and cash flow-oriented valuation analysis.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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Bares Capital (Brian Bares)
Brian Bares started his investment firm, Bares Capital Management, in 2000, focusing initially on micro-cap public
companies. The firm launched a small-cap institutional strategy in 2001 and now manages assets in two value-oriented
strategies. Bares Capital Management is quite unique in the institutional asset management world, as it has adhered to a
disciplined business strategy, limiting the growth of assets under management to benefit investment performance. Both of
Bares’s institutional strategies have beaten their respective benchmark indices by wide margins since inception.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett)
Warren Buffett has built an unparalleled investment track record over several decades, becoming widely regarded as the best
investor of all time. Buffett has embraced a long term-oriented investment approach with an emphasis on investing in
companies with durable competitive advantage, high returns on capital employed, and shareholder-friendly management.
* *, **
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
Portfolio size $48 billion
Other
Top 10 as % of portfolio 88% 12%
Median market value $29 billion Services Consumer
Average market value $58 billion 10% Non-Cyclical
40%
Median P/E (this FY) 14x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 2.3x
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes Financial
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities. 38%
**
A large portion of Berkshire’s asset value may be attributed to holdings that
are not publicly traded and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
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BP Capital (Boone Pickens)
Pickens, born in 1928, was a prominent corporate raider during the 1980s. He founded energy fund BP Capital in 1997.
* *, **
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
Portfolio size $291 million
Capital Goods
Top 10 as % of portfolio 73%
2%
Median market value $11 billion
Financial
Average market value $20 billion
33%
Median P/E (this FY) 15x
Median P/E (next FY) 13x
Median P / tangible book 1.9x Energy
66%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
**
A large portion of assets managed by Boone Pickens may be invested
outside of BP Capital and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
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Breeden Capital (Richard Breeden)
Richard C. Breeden, born in 1949, is a former Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Breeden founded
Breeden Capital Management in 2006. The fund applies a concentrated, activist investment approach.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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Children’s Investment (Chris Hohn)
Chris Hohn is the founder of London-based The Children’s Investment Fund Management. TCI runs a concentrated portfolio
that has historically been heavily weighted in industrials. Hohn has acquired a reputation as an aggressive shareholder
activist, most notably forcing the resignation of the CEO of Deutsche Boerse after he refused to abandon a proposed takeover
of the London Stock Exchange. Hohn also agitated for a sale of ABN Amro, ultimately pushing it into the hands of RBS.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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Clarium (Peter Thiel)
Peter Thiel, born in Germany in 1967, founded global macro hedge fund Clarium after selling PayPal, a company he co-
founded, to eBay in 2002. Thiel is also managing partner of venture capital firm The Founders Fund. He is also an early
investor in Facebook, having paid $500,000 for 10.2% of the company in 2004. In his youth, Thiel was a Chess Master and
one of the highest-ranked young chess players in the U.S. He is a libertarian.
* *, **
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
Portfolio size $9 million Other
Top 10 as % of portfolio 100% 7%
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Edinburgh Partners (Sandy Nairn)
Sandy Nairn follows a value-oriented investment style. He developed his approach during a ten-year “apprenticeship” under
famed investor Sir John Templeton.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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Fairfax (Prem Watsa)
Prem Watsa is the founder, chairman and CEO of Fairfax (FFH), a Canadian property/casualty insurance and reinsurance
firm. While managing Fairfax’s investment portfolio over the past couple of decades, Watsa has built a reputation as an
astute value investor. Some have called him “Warren Buffett of Canada.” In recent years, Watsa’s firm successfully defended
itself against short sellers who allegedly conspired to drive down the price of Fairfax stock and hurt the company’s business.
* *, **
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
Portfolio size $2.6 billion
Top 10 as % of portfolio 92% Financial
24%
Median market value $7.7 billion
Other
Average market value $33 billion 41%
Median P/E (this FY) 13x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Technology
Median P / tangible book 1.6x 19%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes Health Care
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities. 16%
**
A large portion of Fairfax’s asset value may be attributed to holdings that are
not publicly traded and are therefore not shown in the chart or tables.
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First Pacific (Bob Rodriguez and Steven Romick)
Bob Rodriguez is one of the most successful small cap mutual fund managers of the past couple of decades. He joined First
Pacific Advisors in 1983 and now serves as the firm’s CEO. He also manages the FPA Capital Fund. Steve Romick joined
FPA in 1996 and serves as portfolio managers of the FPA Crescent Fund.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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Glenview (Larry Robbins)
Larry Robbins founded Glenview after working for buyout specialist Leon Cooperman’s Omega Advisors. Robbins’ hedge
fund utilizes various value-oriented investment strategies in order to generate absolute returns.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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Gruss (Howard Guberman)
Howard Guberman co-founded Palm Beach, Florida-based Gruss Investments with Audrey, Joshua and Martin Gruss. The
firm follows a highly concentrated, value-oriented investment approach.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
Other
Portfolio size $507 million Services 8%
Top 10 as % o
portfolio 96% 8%
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Harbinger (Phil Falcone)
Phil Falcone founded Harbinger Capital Partners in 2001 in order to capitalize on distressed investment opportunities. The
firm has since expanded into special situation investments and other value-oriented investment strategies.
* *, **
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
Portfolio size $2.0 billion
Other
Top 10 as % of portfolio 97% 17%
Median market value $2.6 billion
Average market value $10.0 billion Services Technology
Median P/E (this FY) 11x 13% 47%
Median P/E (next FY) 10x
Median P / tangible book 1.3x
* Energy
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
23%
**
A material portion of assets managed by Phil Falcone may be invested in
private, non-equity or non-U.S. securities, which are not shown here.
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Icahn Capital (Carl Icahn)
Carl Icahn is an activist investor with a long track record of success agitating for change at underperforming companies. Carl
publishes an activist investing blog entitled The Icahn Report at www.icahnreport.com.
Below we exclusively show holdings disclosed by Icahn Capital LP. Certain other entities controlled by Carl are excluded.
* *, **
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
Portfolio size $4.1 billion Other
Top 10 as % of portfolio 91% Energy 8%
9%
Median market value $2.4 billion
Average market value $6.1 billion Health Care
Median P/E (this FY) 17x 45%
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Lane Five (Lisa Rapuano)
Yale-educated Lisa Rapuano spent ten years at Legg Mason Capital Management and two years as co-CIO at Matador
Capital Management prior to founding Lane Five in 2006.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
Other
Portfolio size $132 million Health Care 5%
Top 10 as % of portfolio 65% 8%
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Lone Pine (Steve Mandel)
Mandel founded long/short firm Lone Pine in 1997. He previously worked for Tiger Management, Goldman Sachs and Mars.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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Maverick (Lee Ainsle)
Lee Ainsle worked for Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management prior to founding long/short hedge fund Maverick.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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MSD Capital (Glenn Fuhrman and John Phelan)
Glenn Fuhrman and John Phelan are co-managing partners and co-founders of MSD, having teamed up with Michael Dell to
manage his personal capital in the late 1990s. Fuhrman previously spent ten years at Goldman Sachs, where he was head of
the Special Investments Group. Phelan previously spent five years at Eddie Lampert’s ESL Investments.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
Other
Portfolio size $578 million 14%
Top 10 as % of portfolio 94%
Median market value $874 million Energy
Average market value $1.1 billion 16% Services
50%
Median P/E (this FY) 15x
Median P/E (next FY) 12x
Median P / tangible book 2.1x Technology
19%
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
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Paulson & Co. (John Paulson)
John Paulson founded his firm with $2 million in 1994. He gained notoriety by profiting hugely from the credit crisis of ‘08.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
Other
Portfolio size $23 billion 16%
Top 10 as % of portfolio 64%
Median market value $5.7 billion Services
Average market value $24 billion 12%
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Pershing Square (Bill Ackman)
Bill Ackman, managing member of Pershing Square Capital, is a value-oriented activist investor. He runs a concentrated
portfolio with the largest ten equity investments accounting for the vast majority of his long book. Before the credit crunch
developed into a full-blown economic crisis, Ackman made a strong case for why MBIA (MBI) and AMBAC (ABK) were
overvalued and fundamentally more distressed than the market had judged at the time. On the long side, Ackman has
approached large companies, including McDonald’s (MCD) and Target (TGT), with proposals for unlocking value.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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Scout (James Crichton)
James Crichton co-founded Scout with Adam Weiss in 1999. The firm runs a concentrated portfolio of undervalued equities.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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Shumway Capital (Chris Shumway)
Chris Shumway is another “Tiger Cub,” having previously worked for Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management. Shumway
follows a value-oriented investment approach, albeit with large portfolio turnover and only modest concentration.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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Third Point (Dan Loeb)
Loeb is the founder of long/short activist fund Third Point, which has amassed a respectable long-term investment record.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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Viking Global (Andreas Halvorsen)
Andreas Halvorsen is a graduate of the Norwegian Naval Academy, a former platoon commander of the Norwegian SEALs,
and a former director of equities at Tiger Management. Halvorsen founded Viking Global Investors in 1999.
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West Coast (Lance Helfert and Paul Orfalea)
Lace Helfert and Paul Orfalea co-founded West Coast Asset Management in 2000. Helfert, who directs the firm’s
investments, previously oversaw a $1 billion portfolio at Wilshire Associates. Orfalea is the founder of Kinko’s copy shops.
West Coast invests in undervalued equities and follows a concentrated investment approach.
MOI Signal Rank™ – Top Current Ideas of West Coast Asset Management
Market Price Shares Owned Holdings P/E (Est.) Price/
Value Recent ∆ from Recent ∆ from as % of This Next Tang.
Company / Ticker ($mn) ($) Jun. 30 ('000) Mar. 31 Co. Fund* FY FY Book
1 Automatic Data / ADP 19,818 39.40 -2% 206 new <1% 8% 16x 15x 3.6x
2 Broadridge Financial / BR 2,555 20.16 6% 414 new <1% 8% 13x 11x >9.9x
3 American Defense / EAG 13 0.26 13% 5,084 0% 10% 1% n/a n/a n/m
4 Angiotech Pharma / ANPI 39 0.46 -39% 59 0% <1% <1% n/a n/a n/m
5 Live Nation / LYV 1,527 8.80 -16% 506 -17% <1% 5% n/m 73x n/m
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
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WL Ross & Co. (Wilbur Ross)
Wilbur Ross, born in 1937, has become well-known for restructuring failed companies in a variety of industries. He has been
a leveraged buyout and distressed investor in steel, coal, telecom, financial and other companies.
* *
Portfolio Metrics Sector Weightings
Other
Portfolio size $453 million Services 5%
8%
Top 10 as % of portfolio 100%
Median market value $1.1 billion
Average market value $1.5 billion
Energy
Median P/E (this FY) 12x 27% Financial
Median P/E (next FY) 10x 60%
Median P / tangible book 2.6x
*
Based on equity holdings disclosed in 13F-HR filings with the SEC. Excludes
portfolio cash, leverage, certain non-U.S. holdings, and non-equity securities.
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Aon Corp. (AON) – Breeden , FPA , Southeastern , Weitz
Financial: Insurance (Miscellaneous), Member of S&P 500 Chicago, IL, 312-381-1000 www.aon.com
Trading Data Consensus EPS Estimates Valuation
Price: $36.91 (as of 8/20/10) Month # of P/E FYE 12/31/09 17x
52-week range: $35.10 - $44.34 Latest Ago Ests P/E FYE 12/31/10 11x
Market value: $10.0 billion This quarter $0.69 $0.68 13 P/E FYE 12/31/11 11x
Enterprise value: $11.2 billion Next quarter 0.94 0.94 13 P/E FYE 12/30/12 9x
Shares out: 269.7 million FYE 12/31/10 3.28 3.22 16 EV/ LTM revenue 1.5x
Ownership Data FYE 12/31/11 3.51 3.54 16 EV/ LTM EBIT 11x
Insider ownership: 1% FYE 12/30/12 3.98 4.03 9 P / tangible book n/m
Insider buys (last six months): 0 LT growth 10.0% 9.3% 4 Greenblatt Criteria
Insider sales (last six months): 16 EPS Surprise Actual Estimate LTM EBIT yield n/m
Institutional ownership: 81% 7/30/10 $0.81 $0.75 LTM pre-tax ROC n/m
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10
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BUSINESS OVERVIEW SELECTED OPERATING DATA1
Aon provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage services, FYE December 31 2007 2008 2009 1H10
risk management, and consulting services worldwide. ∆ revenue 7% 4% 1% 2%
∆ organic revenue – risk/insurance n/a 2% -1% -2%
In July, Aon announced it is to merge with Hewitt Associates ∆ organic revenue – consulting n/a 3% -2% 0%
(HEW) in a half cash/half shares deal valuing Hewitt’s Revenue ($bn) 7.2 7.5 7.6 3.8
equity at $4.9 billion based on Aon’s closing price on July 9. % of revenue by segment:
Aon expects the transaction to close by mid-November. Risk/Insurance brokerage 82% 82% 83% 83%
Consulting 19% 18% 17% 17%
Revenue growth by segment:
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS Risk/Insurance brokerage 7% 5% 2% 2%
• #2 insurance broker worldwide, based on revenue, Consulting 5% 1% -7% 5%
EBIT margin by segment:2
behind Marsh & McLennan and ahead of Willis,
Risk/Insurance brokerage 16% 14% 20% 21%
according to 2008 Business Insurance rankings. Consulting 13% 15% 17% 16%
• Hewitt merger expands consulting business. The Corporate -2% -2% -2% -2%
merged Aon-Hewitt consulting/outsourcing Total EBIT margin 14% 12% 17% 18%
% of revenue by geography:3
operations had pro-forma revenue of $4.3 billion in U.S. 37% 35% 37% 36%
2009 (~50% outsourcing). The combined business Other Americas 11% 11% 12% 12%
is #1 in benefits and human resources outsourcing. U.K. 18% 17% 17% 15%
• Aon shares may be worth twice the recent price Europe/Mideast/Africa 26% 28% 26% 28%
Asia Pacific 8% 9% 9% 9%
by 2013, assuming a 12x multiple of pro-forma Revenue growth by major geography:
2009 EBITDA-capex, adjusted for the realization of U.S. 0% -1% 5% 2%
targeted synergies of $355 million by 2013. Other Americas 6% 11% 6% 7%
• Post-deal leverage to remain manageable with net U.K. 13% -3% 1% -6%
Europe/Mideast/Africa 14% 13% -6% 1%
debt of ~$3.6 billion representing 1.6x pro-forma Selected items as % of revenue:
2009 EBITDA. While Aon has $1.2 billion of net Net income 9% 8% 8% 9%
debt and is assuming another $2.5 billion in the D&A 3% 3% 3% 3%
deal, Hewitt had $111 million of net cash at 6/30. Capex 2% 1% 2% 2%
∆ shares out (avg) -4% -4% -3% -3%
• ~60% of post-deal EBITDA from insurance 1
Based on continuing operations. In 2008 and 2009, Aon sold all of its
brokerage, based on 2009 pro-forma EBITDA. insurance underwriting operations. Figures include the contribution from the
• Does not assume underwriting risk. As an acquisition of reinsurance intermediary Benfield effective November 2008.
2
2007 and 2008 EBIT is as reported. 2009 and YTD figures exclude
insurance broker, Aon solely negotiates and places restructuring charges, pension-related charges and other special items.
3
risks on behalf of clients. It derives revenue mainly Based on the location of the resources producing the revenues.
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…additional insight into Aon:
OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE – EXCLUDES MERGER WITH HEWITT ASSOCIATES
OUR ESTIMATE OF THE EQUITY FAIR VALUE RANGE – INCLUDES MERGER WITH HEWITT ASSOCIATES
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…additional insight into Aon:
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Chesapeake Energy (CHK) – BP Capital , Icahn , Southeastern
Energy: Oil & Gas Operations, Member of S&P 500 Oklahoma City, OK, 405-848-8000 www.chk.com
Trading Data Consensus EPS Estimates Valuation
Price: $20.38 (as of 8/20/10) Month # of P/E FYE 12/31/09 n/m
52-week range: $19.62 - $30.00 Latest Ago Ests P/E FYE 12/31/10 7x
Market value: $13.3 billion This quarter $0.65 $0.67 27 P/E FYE 12/31/11 7x
Enterprise value: $26.3 billion Next quarter 0.72 0.75 26 P/E FYE 12/30/12 6x
Shares out: 654.3 million FYE 12/31/10 2.94 2.95 29 EV/ LTM revenue 3.0x
Ownership Data FYE 12/31/11 2.83 2.79 29 EV/ LTM EBIT 21x
Insider ownership: <1% FYE 12/30/12 3.22 3.24 9 P / tangible book 1.1x
Insider buys (last six months): 0 LT growth 8.0% 7.5% 4 Greenblatt Criteria
Insider sales (last six months): 0 EPS Surprise Actual Estimate LTM EBIT yield 5%
Institutional ownership: 72% 8/3/10 $0.75 $0.69 LTM pre-tax ROC 5%
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10
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BUSINESS OVERVIEW SELECTED OPERATING DATA1
Chesapeake is an onshore U.S. natural gas producer. YTD
FYE December 31 2006 2007 2008 2009 6/30/10
∆ revenue 57% 6% 49% -34% 31%
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS ∆ production 23% 24% 18% 7% 12%
• Second-largest producer of U.S. natural gas with ∆ proved reserves 19% 21% 11% 18% 23%
2Q10 production of 2.5 bcf per day. Chesapeake has Selected information on proved reserves (period-end):2
~16 years of reserve life based on proved reserves Reserves (tcfe) 9.0 10.9 12.1 14.3 15.5
% developed 62% 64% 67% 58% 54%
of ~16 tcfe (54% developed; 90%+ natural gas). After-tax NPV ($bn) 10.0 15.0 11.8 8.2 12.9
• $27 billion after-tax “PV-10” as of June 30, based Selected production data:
on NYMEX strip prices (average of $6.30/mcf and Natural gas (bcf) 526 655 775 835 437
$84/bbl). Deducting $10 billion of net debt yields a Oil (mmbbl) 9 10 11 12 8
Total (bcfe) 578 714 843 906 487
fair value of $22/share – in-line with recent prices.
Average sales prices ($ per ...):3
• Recent market valuation implies zero value for Natural gas (…mcf) 8.76 8.14 8.09 5.93 5.97
unproved reserves and other assets. Chesapeake Oil (…barrel) 59.14 67.50 70.48 58.38 64.35
has ~226 tcfe of unrisked, unproved resources, Total (…mcfe) 8.86 8.40 8.38 6.22 6.46
excl. all derivatives 6.69 6.71 8.39 3.63 4.46
which it estimates is worth $28 billion on a risked Selected expenses ($ per mcfe):4
PV-10 basis at a gas price of $4/mcf. Midstream and Lease operations5 1.16 1.20 1.39 1.09 1.04
other assets could be worth another $7 billion. G&A 0.24 0.34 0.45 0.38 0.44
• “Able to add 2.5-3.0 tcfe per year of new proved DD&A 2.53 2.78 2.55 1.78 1.54
Total 3.93 4.32 4.39 3.25 3.02
reserves at <$1.00/mcfe for years to come,” even Revenue ($bn) 7.3 7.8 11.6 7.7 4.8
after replacing production. The company aims to % of revenue by segment:
have 24 tcfe of proved reserves by yearend 2012, Exploration/production 77% 72% 68% 66% 64%
with less debt and no material share count growth. Midstream6 22% 26% 31% 32% 34%
Other7 2% 2% 1% 2% 2%
• Targeting asset monetizations of $3.0-3.5 billion Pre-tax income margin by segment:8
in 2H10 and $2.5-3.0 billion in 2011. Exploration/production 57% 41% 48% 36% 52%
• Low-cost producing assets. Total lease operating, Midstream 3% 2% 2% 2% 3%
G&A and DD&A costs totaled $3.02/mcfe YTD. Other/eliminations 17% 10% -3% -21% -18%
Total pre-tax margin 44% 30% 33% 24% 34%
Selected items as % of revenue:
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS EBIT8 47% 34% 37% 28% 34%
• Value of unproved reserves may be far less than Net income9 26% 16% 4% -76% 20%
estimated by Chesapeake, especially if natural gas DD&A 20% 25% 18% 21% 16%
Capex excl. acquisitions 60% 86% 79% 68% 63%
prices decline from recent levels. Additional risks Acquisitions, net 54% 39% 22% 10% 30%
include dry holes and higher than anticipated capex. Return on tang. equity10 24% 12% 4% -43% 8%
• High capex carries reinvestment risk. Trailing Tang. equity / assets10 38% 37% 40% 40% 37%
capex is $5.1 billion with another $1.7 billion spent ∆ shares out (avg) 24% 15% 18% 14% 5%
1
tcf(e) = trillions of cubic feet (equivalents); b/(mm)= b/(m)illion; m=thousand.
on purchases of gas/oil properties, net of sales. 2
Based on SEC pricing method, i.e. based on trailing 12-month average prices
• $9.9 billion of net debt and $3.1 billion of at each period-end (at 6/30/10: gas price of $4.10/mcf; oil price of $75.78/bbl).
3
Excludes unrealized gains/losses on derivatives only.
preferred stock (at liquidation value) as of June 30. 4 5
Excludes interest expense. Includes production taxes.
6
Markets, gathers, compresses gas/oil mainly from company-operated wells.
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
7
Includes rig/trucking operations mainly used on company-operated wells.
8
Excludes impairments of $11.1 billion in 2009 and $2.8 billion in 2008.
P/ This Next 9
Stated after preferred stock dividends ($23 million in 2009).
MV EV EV / Tang. FY FY 10
Based on equity/net income after subtracting preferred stock/dividends.
($mn) ($mn) Rev. Book P/E P/E
DVN 27,030 30,480 3.1x 2.5x 10x 10x RATINGS
APC 24,100 33,080 2.9x 1.6x 25x 20x VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value?
PXD 6,720 9,050 3.8x 1.8x 30x 20x DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss?
CHK 13,340 26,310 3.0x 1.1x 7x 7x MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized?
FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet?
MAJOR HOLDERS MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital?
Insiders <1% | Southeastern 12% | FMR 6% | BlackRock 4% EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving?
State Street 4% | Vanguard 3% | Mackenzie 2% MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
THE BOTTOM LINE
With natural gas prices remaining depressed, especially relative to oil, investors may be reluctant to consider an investment in
Chesapeake. Risk-reward, however, is attractive as proved reserves alone justify the recent share price, based on NYMEX
strip pricing. The vast unproved reserves (~15x proved reserves), midstream and other assets represent additional sources of
value, which may exceed recent market capitalization. Given the relative predictability of monetizing the onshore asset base,
and the unpredictability of natural gas prices, shares offer good downside protection while retaining meaningful upside.
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…additional insight into Chesapeake Energy:
Estimated fair value of the $16.9 billion $37.8 billion $51.5 billion
equity of Chesapeake4 $22 per share $50 per share $68 per share
1
Based on June 30, 2010 data.
2
As disclosed by Chesapeake in August 2010 investor presentation (slides 28/29).
3
Includes value of hedges, midstream assets (including CMD and CHKM), the present value of future drilling receivables and net working capital. Values are
based on Chesapeake estimates per August 2010 investor presentation (slide 29). To access the presentation, visit http://bit.ly/9lbAGB
4
Based on 758 million diluted shares, per investor presentation dated August 2010 (slide 29). All preferred stock is assumed converted to common shares.
Source: Company filings, Manual of Ideas analysis, assumptions and estimates.
1
Pro forma for $2 billion Senior Note offering and related redemption of $1.5 billion Senior Notes, revolver reduction and fees
2
NYMEX gas price changes and NYMEX oil price held constant at $79.19 per bbl
3
95.4 tcfe of unproved resources, see page 28 for valuation approach
4
Per Outlook issued on 8/3/10
5
CMD assets based on net book value and CHKM assets based on a price of $23.00 per unit
6
Building, drilling rigs, other assets at net book value and investments at market value
7
Excludes existing carries included in proved reserve report above
8
Based on common stock price of $22.00 per share
Source: Chesapeake investor presentation, August 2010, http://bit.ly/9lbAGB
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MANAGEMENT’S 2010 FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS AT VARIOUS NATURAL GAS PRICES
1
Before effects of unrealized hedging gain or loss
2
Includes the non-cash effect of lifted hedges
3
Includes charges related to stock based compensation
4
Before changes in assets and liabilities
5
Net Debt = long-term debt less cash
6
Fixed charges ($754 mm) = interest expense of $639 million plus deferred dividends of $115 million
7
MEV (Market Equity Value) = $16.7 billion ($22.00/share x 758 mm fully diluted shares as of 6/30/10)
8
EV (Enterprise Value) = $29.5 billion (Market Equity Value, plus $10.6 billion in net long-term debt plus $2.2 billion working capital deficit)
9
Pro forma debt redemptions $2.1 billion; debt offering of 2.0 billion
10
Assuming a common stock price of $22.00/share
Source: Chesapeake investor presentation, August 2010, http://bit.ly/9lbAGB
1
Before effects of unrealized hedging gain or loss
2
Includes the non-cash effect of lifted hedges
3
Includes charges related to stock based compensation
4
Before changes in assets and liabilities
5
Net Debt = long-term debt less cash
6
Fixed charges ($765 mm) = interest expense of $595 million plus deferred dividends of $172 million
7
MEV (Market Equity Value) = $16.7 billion ($22.00/share x 758 mm fully diluted shares as of 6/30/10)
8
EV (Enterprise Value) = $29.5 billion (Market Equity Value, plus $10.6 billion in net long-term debt plus $2.2 billion working capital deficit)
9
Pro forma debt redemptions of $2.1 billion; debt offering of $2.0 billion
10
Assuming a common stock price of $22.00/share
Source: Chesapeake investor presentation, August 2010, http://bit.ly/9lbAGB
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NCR Corp. (NCR) – Greenlight
Technology: Electronic Instruments & Controls, Member of S&P MidCap 400 Duluth, GA, 937-445-1936 www.ncr.com
Trading Data Consensus EPS Estimates Valuation
Price: $12.61 (as of 8/20/10) Month # of P/E FYE 12/31/09 n/m
52-week range: $9.18 - $16.00 Latest Ago Ests P/E FYE 12/31/10 9x
Market value: $2.0 billion This quarter $0.33 $0.31 7 P/E FYE 12/31/11 8x
Enterprise value: $1.6 billion Next quarter 0.52 0.54 7 P/E FYE 12/30/12 8x
Shares out: 160.5 million FYE 12/31/10 1.41 1.39 7 EV/ LTM revenue 0.3x
Ownership Data FYE 12/31/11 1.66 1.63 8 EV/ LTM EBIT 20x
Insider ownership: 2% FYE 12/30/12 1.58 n/a 1 P / tangible book 3.5x
Insider buys (last six months): 0 LT growth n/a n/a n/a Greenblatt Criteria
Insider sales (last six months): 0 EPS Surprise Actual Estimate LTM EBIT yield 5%
Institutional ownership: 76% 7/22/10 $0.35 $0.27 LTM pre-tax ROC 9%
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Jul 01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10
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BUSINESS OVERVIEW SELECTED OPERATING DATA1
NCR manufactures, sells and services ATMs, retail point-of- FYE December 31 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1H10
sale and checkout terminals, and other self-service kiosks. Revenue ($bn) 4.6 4.6 5.0 5.3 4.6 2.2
∆ revenue -2% 0% 8% 7% -13% 3%
% of revenue by type:
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS Products 53% 53% 54% 54% 48% 48%
• #1 global ATM service provider. NCR services Services 47% 47% 46% 46% 52% 52%
350,000+ ATMs in 100+ countries. Sales of ATMs Revenue growth by type:
Products 1%3 0% 11% 6% -22% 6%
and related products have historically accounted for Services 0%3 1% 6% 8% -3% 1%
50%+ of product revenue. The financial services % of revenue by segment:
vertical is a ~$9 billion addressable market globally. Americas 48% 46% 43% 43% 44% 44%
• Strong presence in retail vertical, a ~$10 billion EMEA 35% 37% 38% 39% 36% 36%
Asia Pacific/Japan 17% 18% 18% 18% 20% 20%
addressable market globally. NCR is #2 in retail Revenue growth by segment:
POS behind IBM and #1 in self-service checkout Americas 4%3 -5% 2% 6% -11% 2%
equipment (~65k units installed at ~150 retailers). EMEA 0%3 5% 14% 8% -20% 2%
Asia Pacific/Japan -6%3 7% 13% 7% -4% 11%
• Expanding into DVD rental kiosks, which NCR
Selected items as % of revenue:
expects will represent 50% of the ~$8 billion DVD Gross profit 21% 20% 21% 22% 19% 20%
rental market by 2013. NCR aims for 10,000 kiosks R&D 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4%
installed by yearend 2010 for a cost of $85 million. EBIT (as reported) 3% 3% 4% 6% 2% 1%
EBITDA is expected at $25-35 million in 2011. EBIT (ex. pension costs) 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 6%
Net income 7% 3% 3% 4% -1% 0%
• Pension accounting and DVD start-up costs mask D&A 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
profitability of core ATM/retail business. NCR is Capex2 2% 3% 2% 3% 4% 5%
guiding for EBIT of $340-360 million in 2010, Return on tangible equity 17%3 8%3 10% 23% -8% 0%
Tangible equity to assets 36%3 36%3 35% 23% 10% 12%
excluding $215 million of pension expense and $30
∆ shares out (avg) -1% -3% 0% -8% -4% 1%
million of costs related to the DVD roll-out. 1
Financials exclude Teradata (spun-off in 2007), unless noted otherwise. YTD
• Net cash and FCF generation give NCR ability to figures exclude discontinued operations tied to certain environmental liabilities.
2
Includes additions to capitalized software. 3 Includes Teradata business.
deal with pension liability. Net cash was $437
million June 30. Core ATM/retail business should
• Exposed to financials, retailers. That said, NCR
generate ~$200 million of FCF in 2010.
benefits from trend toward self-service checkout.
• Increased share repurchase authorization by
$210 million in July, to $250 million in total.
COMPARABLE PUBLIC COMPANY ANALYSIS
• “Orders increased 9% year over year” in 2Q10. P/ This Next
NCR could benefit from a recovery in customers’ MV EV EV / Tang. FY FY
capex budgets and upgrades to the installed base. ($mn) ($mn) Rev. Book P/E P/E
• Services revenue (~50% of total) is largely DBD 1,790 1,980 .7x 3.3x 13x 12x
recurring, offsetting volatility in product sales. CSTR 1,540 1,740 1.3x 7.9x 24x 17x
NCR 2,020 1,580 .3x 3.5x 9x 8x
INVESTMENT RISKS & CONCERNS
• $1.5 billion unfunded employee benefit liability at MAJOR HOLDERS
yearend 2009. NCR has a $5.4 billion pension CEO Nuti 2% | Other insiders <1% | Greenlight 5% | FMR
obligation ($1.1 billion funding shortfall at 5.4% 5% | Thornburg 5% | LSV 4% | Vanguard 4% | SAC 2%
discount rate) and is contributing $110 million of
cash in 2010. Post-retirement and post-employment
RATINGS
liabilities total roughly $400 million. VALUE Intrinsic value materially higher than market value?
DOWNSIDE PROTECTION Low risk of permanent loss?
• Will expansion into DVD kiosks create value?
MANAGEMENT Capable and properly incentivized?
NCR aspires to become “the leading global provider
FINANCIAL STRENGTH Solid balance sheet? 1
of self-service entertainment solutions.” It faces
MOAT Able to sustain high returns on invested capital?
strong competition from incumbent Redbox.
EARNINGS MOMENTUM Fundamentals improving?
• Competitors include IBM, HP, Fujitsu and MACRO Poised to benefit from economic and secular trends?
“vertical” rivals (Diebold, Wincor, SITA, Coinstar). *
The large pension deficit more than offsets NCR’s net cash position.
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…additional insight into NCR:
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…additional insight into NCR:
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Snapshot of 100 Superinvestor Holdings
In Alphabetical Order
Recent YTD Market Enter.
Price Price Value Value
Company / Ticker Industry Notable Shareholders ($) ∆ ($mn) ($mn) Website
American Capital / ACAS Investment Services Kleinheinz, Paulson 5.01 105% 1,707 nm www.americancapital.com
Aon Corp. / AON Insurance (miscellaneous) Breeden, Southeastern 36.91 -4% 9,955 nm www.aon.com
Apollo Group / APOL Schools Scout, Tiger Global, Weitz 40.72 -33% 6,007 5,278 www.apollogrp.edu
Apple / AAPL Computer Hardware Blue Ridge, Greenlight 249.64 18% 228,062 203,774 www.apple.com
Arris Group / ARRS Comms Equipment Sageview, Shamrock 8.57 -25% 1,073 622 www.arrisi.com
Automatic Data / ADP Business Services Pershing Sq., West Coast 39.40 -8% 19,818 18,186 www.adp.com
Bally Technologies / BYI Casinos & Gaming Breeden, Wanger 33.04 -20% 1,797 1,826 www.ballytech.com
Bank of America / BAC Money Center Banks Chou, Fairholme, Paulson 12.87 -15% 129,136 nm www.bankofamerica.com
Bank of NY Mellon / BK Investment Services Maverick, Southeastern 24.65 -12% 29,926 nm www.bnymellon.com
Baxter International / BAX Medical Equipment Sageview, Shumway 44.57 -24% 26,045 28,559 www.baxter.com
BP / BP Oil & Gas - Integrated Chou, Fairholme 36.40 -37% 113,998 131,135 www.bp.com
Broadridge Financial / BR Business Services Brave Warrior, Centaur 20.16 -11% 2,555 2,466 www.broadridge.com
Canadian Natural / CNQ Oil & Gas Operations Wintergreen 32.20 -11% 35,078 43,997 www.cnrl.com
CF Industries / CF Chemical Manufacturing Appaloosa, H Partners 90.01 -1% 6,398 8,398 www.cfindustries.com
Chesapeake Energy / CHK Oil & Gas Operations BP, Icahn, Southeastern 20.38 -21% 13,335 26,300 www.chk.com
Citigroup / C Money Center Banks ESL, Fairholme, Paulson 3.75 13% 108,651 nm www.citigroup.com
Coca-Cola / KO Beverages (non-alcoholic) BRK, Eagle, Wintergreen 55.30 -3% 127,713 129,256 thecoca-colacompany.com
Coca-Cola Enterprise / CCE Beverages (non-alcoholic) Gates, Scout, Third Point 29.02 37% 14,585 22,047 www.cokecce.com
Cooper Tire & Rubber / CTB Tires WL Ross, Donald Smith 18.19 -9% 1,118 1,227 www.coopertires.com
Corning / GLW Comms Equipment Cap Re, Maverick 16.10 -17% 25,142 22,834 www.corning.com
Covidien / COV Medical Equipment Artisan, FPA, Pennant 38.09 -20% 19,104 19,942 www.covidien.com
DaVita / DVA Healthcare Facilities Gates, Glenview, Pennant 63.82 9% 6,548 9,334 www.davita.com
Dell / DELL Computer Hardware Hawkshaw, Southeastern 12.07 -16% 23,636 16,448 www.dell.com
DIRECTV / DTV Broadcasting & Cable Southeastern, Tiger Global 38.05 14% 33,811 40,520 www.directv.com
Discovery Comms / DISCA Broadcasting & Cable Blue Ridge, Eagle, Weitz 37.82 23% 10,765 13,665 discoverycommunications.com
Dollar Tree / DLTR Retail (dep't & discount) Akre, Blue Ridge 44.62 39% 5,665 5,451 www.dollartree.com
eBay / EBAY Retail (online) Centaur, FPA, Scout 23.37 -1% 30,665 25,767 www.ebay.com
Ensco / ESV Oil Well Services Eagle, Greenlight 41.51 4% 5,936 4,965 enscointernational.com
Enstar Group / ESGR Insurance (miscellaneous) Akre, Flowers, Royce 70.35 -4% 973 nm www.enstargroup.com
Estee Lauder / EL Household Products Lone Pine, Viking 57.39 19% 11,296 11,404 www.elcompanies.com
Fiserv / FISV Computer Services Brave Warrior, BRK 51.26 6% 7,694 10,795 www.fiserv.com
Franklin Resources / BEN Investment Services Edinburgh, Wintergreen 98.92 -6% 22,266 17,973 /www.franklintempleton.com
GameStop / GME Retail (technology) Adage, Centaur, Munder 18.81 -14% 2,828 2,987 www.gamestop.com
General Electric / GE Conglomerates Edinburgh, Markel 15.03 -1% 160,689 576,578 www.ge.com
Goldman Sachs / GS Investment Services Fairholme, Pabrai, Paulson 148.24 -12% 76,435 nm www.goldmansachs.com
Google / GOOG Computer Services Brave Warrior, Weitz 462.02 -25% 147,249 117,190 www.google.com
H&R Block / HRB Personal Services Artisan, Breeden, Davis 13.47 -40% 4,355 3,665 www.handrblock.com
Hess / HES Oil & Gas - Integrated BP, Cap World, Viking 51.24 -15% 16,828 19,791 www.hess.com
Innophos / IPHS Chemical Manufacturing Integrity, WL Ross 27.60 20% 591 714 www.innophos.com
Intel / INTC Semiconductors Fairfax, Markel, Pennant 18.91 -7% 105,291 89,261 www.intel.com
Ituran Location / ITRN Security Solutions Baupost, Sageview 13.65 6% 320 258 www.ituran.com
Jo-Ann Stores / JAS Retail (specialty) SouthernSun, WL Ross 38.03 5% 1,039 984 www.joann.com
Johnson & Johnson / JNJ Major Drugs BRK, Fairfax, West Coast 58.74 -9% 161,796 154,547 www.jnj.com
JPMorgan Chase / JPM Investment Services Lone Pine, Paulson 37.14 -11% 147,266 nm www.jpmorganchase.com
Key Energy Services / KEG Oil Well Services H Partners, MHR, WL Ross 8.46 -4% 1,063 1,539 www.keyenergy.com
Kraft Foods / KFT Food Processing BRK, Pershing Square 29.10 7% 50,752 77,928 kraftfoodscompany.com
Leap Wireless / LEAP Comms Services Citadel, H Partners, MHR 11.13 -37% 872 3,062 www.leapwireless.com
Liberty Interactive / LINTA Broadcasting & Cable Southeastern, Third Point 10.50 -3% 6,280 11,275 www.libertymedia.com
Life Technologies / LIFE Biotechnology & Drugs Glenview, Sageview 44.33 -15% 8,127 10,081 www.lifetechnologies.com
Lincare / LNCR Healthcare Facilities FPA, Glenview, Lone Pine 23.76 -4% 2,331 2,701 www.lincare.com
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Recent YTD Market Enter.
Price Price Value Value
Company / Ticker Industry Notable Shareholders ($) ∆ ($mn) ($mn) Website
Live Nation / LYV Casinos & Gaming Lone Pine, Pennant 8.80 3% 1,527 2,265 www.livenation.com
Lowe's / LOW Retail (home improvement) Eagle, Southeastern 20.64 -12% 29,371 32,934 www.lowes.com
Macquarie Infrastr. / MIC Misc. Transportation Axial, MSD, Senator 13.23 8% 605 1,758 www.macquarie.com/mic
Macy's / M Retail (dep't & discount) Appaloosa, Third Point 20.97 25% 8,854 15,748 www.macysinc.com
MasterCard / MA Retail Financial Services Brave Warrior, Scout 206.37 -19% 27,005 23,571 www.mastercard.com
MBIA / MBI Property & Casualty Fairfax, Fairholme 9.06 128% 1,816 nm www.mbia.com
McClatchy / MNI Printing & Publishing Chou, Paulson 2.87 -19% 243 1,997 www.mcclatchy.com
McDonald's / MCD Restaurants Clarium, Blue Ridge, Scout 73.08 17% 77,782 86,743 www.mcdonalds.com
Merck / MRK Major Drugs Appaloosa, Fairfax 34.44 -6% 107,393 116,925 www.merck.com
Microsoft / MSFT Software & Programming Eagle, Greenlight, Weitz 24.23 -21% 209,676 178,827 www.microsoft.com
Nalco Holding / NLC Chemical Manufacturing BRK, Legg, MSD, MS 23.01 -10% 3,182 5,951 www.nalco.com
NCR / NCR Electronic Instruments Greenlight, LSV, Perkins 12.61 13% 2,024 1,587 www.ncr.com
News Corp. / NWSA Broadcasting & Cable Baupost, Viking Global 12.73 -7% 33,368 37,979 www.newscorp.com
Novartis / NVS Major Drugs Dodge & Cox, Gruss 50.75 -7% 116,091 111,736 www.novartis.com
Ocwen Financial / OCN Retail Financial Services Second Curve, Kleinheinz 9.07 -5% 909 nm www.ocwen.com
Oracle / ORCL Software & Programming Children's, Glenview 23.02 -6% 115,704 111,890 www.oracle.com
Pfizer / PFE Major Drugs Appaloosa, Greenlight 15.92 -12% 128,413 156,340 www.pfizer.com
Philip Morris / PM Tobacco Markel, Wintergreen 51.98 8% 95,273 108,920 philipmorrisinternational.com
Pinnacle Airlines / PNCL Airline Apollo, Pabrai, RenTech 4.97 -28% 92 578 www.pncl.com
Potash / POT Non-Metallic Mining Cap World, Pabrai, Weitz 149.67 38% 44,392 47,821 www.potashcorp.com
Pride International / PDE Oil Well Services FPA, MHR, Primecap 23.04 -28% 4,047 4,913 www.prideinternational.com
Redwood Trust / RWT Real Estate Operations NWQ, Perkins, Weitz 14.34 -1% 1,118 5,011 www.redwoodtrust.com
Republic Airways / RJET Airline Greenlight, Kleinheinz 6.69 -9% 232 2,848 republicairways.com
Reynolds American / RAI Tobacco Wintergreen 56.64 7% 16,512 19,310 reynoldsamerican.com
Sears Holdings / SHLD Retail (dep't & discount) Chou, ESL, Fairholme 61.59 -26% 6,815 8,808 www.searsholdings.com
Service Corp. / SCI Personal Services Southeastern 7.97 -3% 1,967 3,677 www.sci-corp.com
Smurfit-Stone / SSCC Paper & Paper Products Lane Fine 18.30 -44% 1,830 2,696 www.smurfit.com
Sprint Nextel / S Comms Services Chou, Harbinger 4.19 14% 12,505 28,529 www.sprint.com
SuperMedia / SPMD Business Services Appaloosa, Paulson 11.94 na 185 2,458 www.supermedia.com
Symantec / SYMC Software & Programming Edinburgh, Hawkshaw 13.80 -23% 10,893 10,051 www.symantec.com
Target / TGT Retail (dep't & discount) Pershing Square, Weitz 52.15 8% 37,684 52,696 www.target.com
Teva Pharma / TEVA Biotechnology & Drugs Maverick, Shumway 50.28 -11% 47,012 49,151 www.tevapharm.com
Time Warner / TWX Broadcasting & Cable Shumway, Viking 30.31 4% 34,075 46,357 www.timewarner.com
TN Commerce Banc / TNCC Regional Banks Second Curve 4.37 0% 25 nm www.tncommercebank.com
Transocean / RIG Oil Well Services FPA, H Partners 51.00 -38% 16,269 24,807 www.deepwater.com.
TravelCenters / TA Retail (specialty) Bares, Leucadia 3.61 -18% 62 8 www.tatravelcenters.com
Tree.com / TREE Retail Financial Services Second Curve, Weitz 7.15 -22% 80 nm www.tree.com
Tyco International / TYC Conglomerates Scout, Viking, Weitz 38.70 8% 19,261 21,606 www.tyco.com
U.S. Bancorp / USB Money Center Banks Brave Warrior, BRK, Fairfax 21.74 -3% 41,679 nm www.usbank.com
Union Pacific / UNP Railroads Children's, Shumway 74.26 16% 36,949 44,997 www.up.com
Viacom / VIA.B Broadcasting & Cable Children's, Tiger Global 31.68 7% 19,266 25,347 www.viacom.com
ViaSat / VSAT Comms Equipment Baupost, Times Square 34.40 8% 1,396 1,648 www.viasat.com
Visa / V Retail Financial Services Brave Warrior, Children's 70.10 -20% 58,890 53,647 www.visa.com
Wal-Mart / WMT Retail (dep't & discount) BRK, Eagle, Markel 50.22 -6% 186,299 225,337 walmartstores.com
Walt Disney / DIS Broadcasting & Cable Markel, Southeastern 33.05 2% 63,212 72,888 disney.go.com
Washington Post / WPO Printing & Publishing Bares, BRK, Weitz 347.68 -21% 3,187 2,547 www.washpostco.com
Wells Fargo / WFC Regional Banks Appaloosa, BRK, Fairfax 24.60 -9% 128,742 nm www.wellsfargo.com
Xerium Technologies / XRM Textiles - Non-Apparel Third Point 10.97 -28% 164 605 www.xerium.com
Xerox / XRX Office Equipment Glenview, Greenlight 8.97 6% 12,406 21,939 www.xerox.com
Yum! Brands / YUM Restaurants Pershing Sq., Southeastern 42.32 21% 19,764 22,469 www.yum.com
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Favorite Stock Screens For Value Investors
Market Enterprise Relevant Financial
Company Ticker Price Notable Shareholders Industry
Value Value Data Point
* NCAV = net current asset value = current asset minus total liabilities
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“Magic Formula,” based on Trailing Operating Income
Companies with high returns on capital employed, trading at high trailing EBIT-to-enterprise value yield
▼ ▼
Move To Trailing EBIT/ Price/
Price 52-Week MV EV EV/ EBIT/ Capital Tax Tangible
Company Ticker ($) Low High ($mn) ($mn) Sales EV Employed Rate Book
1 Synta Pharma SNTA 2.90 -12% 140% 118 70 .5x 132% infinite n/m 3.3x
2 * VirnetX VHC 6.38 -71% 25% 303 176 .9x 60% infinite 32% 4.4x
3 InfoSpace INSP 6.90 -2% 76% 249 25 .1x 58% infinite 9% 1.1x
4 Terra Nova Royalty TTT 7.31 -16% 92% 221 137 .3x 43% infinite 62% 1.1x
5 Bridgepoint Edu. BPI 13.07 -2% 110% 715 509 .9x 36% infinite 42% 3.5x
6 SuperGen SUPG 1.99 -14% 91% 120 17 .4x 44% 894% n/m 1.1x
7 ITT Educational ESI 52.22 -4% 134% 1,754 1,624 1.1x 35% 1674% 39% >9.9x
8 EarthLink ELNK 8.59 -9% 9% 929 604 .9x 32% 1325% n/m 1.4x
9 ePlus PLUS 18.35 -20% 5% 148 116 .2x 29% infinite 39% .9x
10 Unisys UIS 22.71 -25% 78% 968 1,308 .3x 32% 801% 13% n/m
11 InterDigital IDCC 26.61 -31% 13% 1,172 687 1.9x 32% 448% 28% 8.4x
12 Jiangbo Pharma JGBO 10.49 -31% 38% 127 54 .5x 95% 249% 28% 1.4x
13 Apollo Group APOL 40.72 -6% 89% 6,007 5,278 1.1x 25% 802% 42% 7.9x
14 Impax Labs IPXL 16.49 -56% 36% 1,046 718 1.0x 47% 266% 36% 2.8x
15 Metropolitan Health MDF 3.56 -48% 26% 144 112 .3x 29% 337% 38% 3.0x
16 Amedisys AMED 23.58 -3% 173% 680 768 .5x 32% 281% 39% n/m
17 H&R Block HRB 13.47 0% 72% 4,355 3,665 .9x 21% infinite 38% >9.9x
18 Tessera Technologies TSRA 15.92 -5% 102% 800 362 1.4x 27% 296% 44% 1.6x
19 Career Education CECO 17.54 -1% 105% 1,425 1,115 .6x 29% 265% 34% 4.5x
20 United Online UNTD 4.87 -2% 91% 425 607 .6x 20% infinite 39% n/m
21 USA Mobility USMO 14.19 -31% 8% 313 184 .7x 32% 232% 38% 1.9x
22 Oshkosh OSK 26.59 -1% 68% 2,407 3,424 .4x 38% 196% 33% n/m
23 Ambassadors Group EPAX 11.25 -10% 54% 213 106 1.3x 19% infinite 35% 2.5x
24 Amerigroup AGP 37.75 -45% 4% 1,926 1,536 .3x 19% infinite 37% 2.4x
25 Immunomedics IMMU 3.14 -9% 128% 236 211 3.4x 18% infinite n/m 6.0x
26 * DragonWave DRWI 6.06 -27% 133% 223 107 .5x 39% 154% 1% 1.5x
27 Corinthian Colleges COCO 4.49 -2% 352% 396 468 .3x 51% 135% 39% 5.8x
28 Foster Wheeler FWLT 23.19 -12% 54% 2,957 2,167 .5x 19% 334% 22% 4.0x
29 ViroPharma VPHM 12.84 -43% 12% 1,000 736 2.0x 22% 236% 43% 5.9x
30 Medicis Pharma MRX 27.06 -34% 4% 1,628 1,254 1.9x 17% infinite 38% 3.6x
31 * Vonage VG 2.05 -79% 36% 434 518 .6x 17% infinite n/m n/m
32 Sohu.com SOHU 47.74 -16% 51% 1,806 1,207 2.2x 17% 1217% 16% 3.0x
33 Almost Family AFAM 25.59 -8% 72% 237 208 .6x 24% 166% 41% 4.5x
34 * Forest Labs FRX 27.60 -12% 20% 7,881 4,591 1.1x 22% 180% 32% 2.0x
35 Genoptix GXDX 17.28 -10% 126% 304 164 .8x 31% 124% 46% 1.5x
36 AmSurg AMSG 17.11 -2% 38% 529 801 1.2x 28% 130% 17% n/m
37 * MedQuist MEDQ 7.80 -26% 28% 293 271 .8x 17% 442% 6% 6.5x
38 McGraw-Hill MHP 28.18 -16% 31% 8,710 8,764 1.5x 16% 5873% 36% n/m
39 * Argan AGX 7.50 -1% 117% 102 40 .2x 19% 217% 33% 1.5x
40 * Aeropostale ARO 22.68 -16% 42% 2,121 1,808 .8x 22% 159% 40% 4.7x
41 Continucare CNU 3.40 -24% 54% 204 172 .6x 20% 163% 39% 4.0x
42 * Providence Service PRSC 13.87 -31% 34% 180 315 .4x 20% 159% 39% n/m
43 * Kirkland's KIRK 12.15 -7% 109% 241 175 .4x 31% 106% 31% 2.4x
44 * Lihua International LIWA 8.68 -47% 46% 253 168 .7x 24% 120% 29% 2.0x
45 * KBR KBR 23.02 -25% 7% 3,597 2,463 .2x 23% 121% 31% 2.2x
Company website SEC Y! Price Charts
* New additions are highlighted.
Screening criteria: ► Market value > $100 million ► ADRs and banks excluded
MV = market value. EV = enterprise value.
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This Month’s Top 10 Web Links
A Selection of Our Favorite Freely Accessible Internet Resources
Click on the link next to each title, or type the Web address into your Web browser:
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