Boston Globe Poll On Key Political Races in Mass.

BOSTON GLOBE POLL #28
MA 2010 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION
Prepared by:
Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.
The Survey Center

University of New Hampshire
October 23, 2010

Contents
Technical Report.......................................................................... 1
Questionnaire ............................................................................... 2
Data Tables ................................................................................ 15

The Boston Globe Poll #28
MA 2012 Gubernatorial Election
Conducted by the UNH Survey Center

October, 2010
Technical Report
Field Period: October 17 to October 22, 2010
Hours: 10 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Median Completion Time: 16 minutes
Full Sample
Sample Size: 601 randomly selected Massachusetts adults (RDD)
519 randomly selected likely November, 2010 voters
Sampling Error: Full sample +/- 4.0%

Likely voters +/- 4.3%
Response Rate, Full Sample (AAPOR #4): 29%
4th CD
Sample Size: 407 randomly selected MA 4th CD adults (RDD)
Sampling Error: Full 4th CD sample +/- 4.9%

4th CD Likely voters +/- 5.0%
10th CD
Sample Size: 367 randomly selected MA 10th CD adults (RDD)
Sampling Error: Full 4th CD sample +/- 5.1%

4th CD Likely voters +/- 5.2%
Response Rate, 4th and 10th CD oversample (AAPOR #4): 20%
The data have been weighted by the number of adults in a household and the number of telephone numbers at
which a household can be reached in order to equalize the chances of an individual MA adult being selected.
The data have also been weighted by the sex and race of the respondent and the region of the state based on
the American Community Survey conducted by the US Census.
1
The Boston Globe Poll #28
Conducted by the UNH Survey Center
October, 2010
FINAL
INTRO:
“Good afternoon / evening. My name is _____________________ and I'm calling from the University of
New Hampshire Survey Center. We are conducting a short, confidential study about politics and policy in
Massachusetts, and we'd really appreciate your help and cooperation.”
1 CONTINUE
99 REFUSED
BIR1
“In order to determine who to interview, could you tell me, of the adults aged 18 or older who currently live
in your household -- including yourself -- who had the most recent birthday? I don't mean who is the
youngest, but rather, who had the most recent birthday?”
1 INFORMANT SKIP TO SEX

2 SOMEONE ELSE (SPECIFY): ________________ SKIP TO INT2
3 DON'T KNOW ALL BIRTHDAYS, ONLY SOME CONTINUE WITH BIR2
4 DON'T KNOW ANY BIRTHDAYS OTHER THAN OWN SKIP TO SEX
99 REFUSED -- ENTER NON-RESPONSE INFORMATION
BIR2
“Of the ones that you do know, who had the most recent birthday?”
1 INFORMANT SKIP TO SEX

2 SOMEONE ELSE (SPECIFY): ___________________ SKIP TO INT2
99 REFUSED
INT2
ASK TO SPEAK TO THAT PERSON
“Good afternoon / evening, this is _____________________ calling from the University of New Hampshire.
This month, we are conducting a confidential study about politics and policy in Massachusetts, and we'd
really appreciate your help and cooperation. You have been identified as the adult in your household who had
the most recent birthday. Is this correct?”
1 YES SKIP TO SEX

2 APPOINTMENT
99 REFUSAL TERMINATE
2
SEX
“Thank you very much for helping us with this important study. Before we begin I want to assure you that all
of your answers are strictly confidential. Your telephone number was randomly selected from all families in
Massachusetts and your responses will be combined with answers from other people from across the state.”
“Participation is voluntary. If you decide to participate, you may decline to answer any question or end the
interview at any time. This call may be monitored for quality assurance.”
IF ASKED: “This survey will take about ten minutes to complete.”
RECORD SEX OF RESPONDENT
1 MALE
2 FEMALE
* 99 NA / REFUSED
TOWN
“Before we get started, in what town do you live?” ENTER NUMBER OF TOWN FROM SHEET.
BE SURE TO RECORD TOWN!!
997 OTHER SPECIFY _____________________________
998 DK - DO NOT PROBE

* 999 NA / REFUSED
CALCULATE DIST VARIABLE FOR 4TH & 10TH C.D.s
TRACKMA
“Do you think things in Massachusetts are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on
the wrong track?”
1 RIGHT DIRECTION
2 WRONG TRACK
98 DK (PROBE: REPEAT QUESTION)

* 99 NA / REFUSED
3
GOVAPP
“GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way Deval Patrick is handling his job as
governor?”
(IF APPROVE): “Would you say that you STRONGLY approve of the way he is handling his job as
governor, or that you approve only SOMEWHAT?”
(IF DISAPPROVE): “Would you say that you STRONGLY disapprove of the way he is handling his job as
governor, or that you disapprove only SOMEWHAT?”
(IF NEITHER, NOT SURE, DK): “Would you say that you lean a little more toward APPROVING or
DISAPPROVING of the way he is handling his job as governor?”
1 STRONGLY APPROVE
2 APPROVE SOMEWHAT
3 LEAN TOWARD APPROVING
4 NEITHER, NOT SURE, DK
5 LEAN TOWARD DISAPPROVING

6 DISAPPROVE SOMEWHAT
7 STRONGLY DISAPPROVE
* 99 NA / REFUSED
REGVOTE
“Are you registered to vote at your current address?”
IF YES: “Are you registered to vote as a Democrat, Independent, Republican or something else?”
1 REGISTERED DEMOCRAT
2 REGISTERED INDEPENDENT / UNAFFILIATED
3 REGISTERED REPUBLICAN
4 REGISTERED OTHER
98 NOT REGISTERED / DK (DO NOT PROBE) SKIPTO VOTEMOT

* 99 NA / REFUSED SKIPTO VOTEMOT
VOTEINT
“And as you know, the general election for Governor of Massachusetts and other offices is being held in
November 2010. How interested would you say you are in the 2010 general election ... extremely interested
... very interested ... somewhat interested ... or not very interested?”
1 EXTREMELY INTERESTED
2 VERY INTERESTED
3 SOMEWHAT INTERESTED
4 NOT VERY INTERESTED
98 DK (DO NOT PROBE)

* 99 NA
4
VOTELIKE
“Which of the following statements best describes you ... (READ NUMBERS 1 TO 5)
1 I will probably NOT vote in the November 2010 general election, SKIPTO VOTEMOT
2 I MAY vote in the November 2010 general election, , SKIPTO VOTEMOT
3 Unless some emergency comes up, I WILL vote in the 2010 general election,
4 I will DEFINITELY vote in the 2010 general election, or
5 I just don't know at this time.” SKIPTO VOTEMOT
* 99 NA/REFUSED SKIPTO VOTEMOT
FAV
“Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you
have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you don’t know enough about him or her to say.
First, how about ... ROTATE FAV1 TO FAV8
FAV1
“Governor Deval Patrick.”
IF NECESSARY: “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion about him, or don’t you know enough
about him to say?”
1 FAVORABLE
2 NEITHER FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE - VOLUNTEERED
3 UNFAVORABLE
98 DK / NEVER HEARD OF / KNOW TOO LITTLE TO SAY

* 99 NA / REFUSED
FAV2 “State Treasurer Tim Cahill.”
FAV3 “Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker.”
FAV4 “Green Party gubernatorial candidate Jill Stein.”
GOV1
“Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the election for Massachusetts governor in 2010 … are
you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?”
1 DEFINITELY DECIDED WHO WILL VOTE FOR

2 LEANING TOWARD SOMEONE
3 STILL TRYING TO DECIDE
99 NA / REFUSED
5
GOV2
“If the 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election was being held TODAY and the candidates are Charlie
Baker, the Republican … Deval Patrick, the Democrat … Tim Cahill, the Independent … and Jill Stein, the
Green-Rainbow candidate, who would you vote for ... Charlie Baker … Deval Patrick … Tim Cahill … or Jill
Stein?" ROTATE CANDIDATES
1 BAKER
2 PATRICK
3 CAHILL
4 STEIN
5 OTHER
6 WILL NOT VOTE IN GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION SKIPTO TREAS
98 DK / UNSURE SKIPTO TREAS

* 99 NA/REFUSED SKIPTO TREAS
GOV3
“Who would your second choice be?
1 BAKER
2 PATRICK
3 CAHILL
4 STEIN
5 OTHER
6 NO SECOND CHOICE
98 DK / UNSURE
* 99 NA/REFUSED
TREAS
“If the 2010 election for Massachusetts state Treasurer was being held TODAY and the candidates are Karyn
Polito, the Republican and Steve Grossman, the Democrat, who would you vote for ... Karyn Polito … or
Steve Grossman?" ROTATE CANDIDATES
1 POLITO
2 GROSSMAN
3 OTHER
4 WILL NOT VOTE IN STATE TREASURER ELECTION
98 DK / UNSURE
* 99 NA/REFUSED
6
AUDIT
“And if the 2010 election for Massachusetts state Auditor was being held TODAY and the candidates are
Mary Connaughton, the Republican and Suzanne Bump, the Democrat, who would you vote for ... Mary
Connaughton … or Suzanne Bump " ROTATE CANDIDATES
1 CONNAUGHTON
2 BUMP
3 OTHER
4 WILL NOT VOTE IN STATE AUDITOR ELECTION
98 DK / UNSURE
* 99 NA/REFUSED
AG
“And if the 2010 election for Massachusetts Attorney General was being held TODAY and the candidates are
Martha Coakley, the Democrat, and James McKenna, the Republican, who would you vote for ... Martha
Coakley … or James McKenna?” ROTATE CANDIDATES
1 MCKENNA
2 COAKLEY
3 OTHER
4 WILL NOT VOTE IN ATTORNEY GENERAL ELECTION
98 DON’T KNOW
* 99 NA/REFUSED
IF (DIST = 4) SKIPTO CONGD4

IF (DIST = 10) SKIPTO CONGD10
CONGVOTE
"Please think about the November election for your representative to the U.S. House of Representatives. Do
you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives ... or do
you plan to skip the election for U.S. House of Representatives this time?" ROTATE PARTIES
ROTATE PARTIES
1 REPUBLICAN
2 DEMOCRAT
3 OTHER
4 WILL NOT VOTE IN US HOUSE ELECTION
98 DK / NOT SURE
* 99 NA / REFUSED
SKIPTO REPVOTE
7
CONG4
you plan to vote for Barney Frank, the Democrat … Sean Bielat (BEE – lat), the Republican … some other
candidate ... or do you plan to skip the election for U.S. House of Representatives this time?" ROTATE
CANDIDATES
1 BIELAT
2 FRANK
3 OTHER
98 DK / NOT SURE
* 99 NA / REFUSED
SKIPTO REPVOTE
CONG10
you plan to vote for William Keating, the Democrat … Jeffrey Perry, the Republican … Maryanne Lewis, the
independent candidate ... James Sheets, the other independent candidate … some other candidate ... or do you
plan to skip the election for U.S. House of Representatives this time?" ROTATE CANDIDATES
1 PERRY
2 KEATING
3 LEWIS
4 SHEETS
5 OTHER
98 DK / NOT SURE
* 99 NA / REFUSED
REPVOTE
"And turning to the November election for your representative for the Massachusetts House of
Representatives. Do you plan to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for the Massachusetts
House of Representatives ... or do you plan to skip the election for Massachusetts House of Representatives
this time?" ROTATE PARTIES
1 REPUBLICAN
2 DEMOCRAT
3 OTHER
98 DK / NOT SURE
* 99 NA / REFUSED
8
BALLOT1
“As you may know, Question 1 on the November ballot is a proposal to eliminate sales tax on alcohol sold in
Massachusetts. Do you favor or oppose ballot Question 1, the proposal to eliminate the sales tax on alcohol
sold in Massachusetts, or haven’t you thought about this enough to say?”
“Is that strongly or just somewhat?”
1 STRONGLY FAVOR
2 SOMEWHAT FAVOR
3 SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
4 STRONGLY OPPOSE
98 DK / NOT SURE / HAVEN’T THOUGHT ENOUGH ABOUT IT TO SAY

* 99 NA / REFUSED
BALLOT2
“And as you may know, Question 2 on the November ballot is a proposal that would repeal the state’s
affordable housing law. Do you favor or oppose Question 2, the proposal to repeal the state’s affordable
housing law, or haven’t you thought about this enough to say?”
1 STRONGLY FAVOR
2 SOMEWHAT FAVOR
3 SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
4 STRONGLY OPPOSE

* 99 NA / REFUSED
BALLOT3
“And as you may know, Question 3 on the November ballot is a proposal to reduce the state sales tax from 6
point two-five percent to 3 percent. Do you favor or oppose ballot Question 3, the proposal to reduce the state
sales tax from 6 point two-five percent to 3 percent, or haven’t you thought about this enough to say?”
1 STRONGLY FAVOR
2 SOMEWHAT FAVOR
3 SOMEWHAT OPPOSE
4 STRONGLY OPPOSE

* 99 NA / REFUSED
9
CCCHAR
“Let’s turn back to the election for Governor. I'm going to read you a few phrases which describe the
candidates running for Governor, and for each one, tell me who you think that phrase best describes,
regardless of who you are voting for. Please feel free to name a candidate even if you may not be voting for
that person.”
ROTATE CCHAR1 TO CCHAR3
CCHAR1
“Which candidate do you think is the strongest leader?” READ LIST IF NECESSARY
1 CHARLIE BAKER
2 DEVAL PATRICK
3 TIM CAHILL
4 JILL STEIN
5 SOMEONE ELSE
97 NONE
98 DK / NOT SURE
99 NA / REFUSED
CCHAR2
“Which candidate do you think best understands people like me?” READ LIST IF NECESSARY
CCHAR3
“Which candidate do you think is most likable?” READ LIST IF NECESSARY
VOTEMOT
“Think for a minute about political incumbents, the people in Washington and Massachusetts who are
currently in office. Overall, do you trust current political incumbents to provide leadership in Washington
and Massachusetts or do you think political incumbents in Washington and Massachusetts need to be replaced
by a new crop of leaders?” ROTATE RESPONSES
1 TRUST CURRENT INCUMBENTS

2 WANT NEW CROP OF LEADERS
3 OTHER – IT DEPENDS ON THE PERSON
98 DK / NOT SURE – DO NOT PROBE

* 99 NA / REFUSED
10
HOPE
“Thinking about all of the elections in November, both in Massachusetts and in other parts of the country,
how do you feel about what will happen in the November elections? Are you very excited … somewhat
excited … somewhat depressed … or very depressed?”
1 VERY EXCITED
2 SOMEWHAT EXCITED
3 NEUTRAL - VOLUNTEERED
4 SOMEWHAT DEPRESSED
5 VERY DEPRESSED
98 DK / NOT SURE
* 99 NA / REFUSED
D1
“Now, a few final questions . . .”
“What is the highest grade in school, or level of education that you've completed and got credit for ...”
[READ RESPONSES]
1 “Eighth grade or less,

2 Some high school,
3 High school graduate, (INCLUDES G.E.D.)
4 Technical school,
5 Some college,
6 College graduate,
7 Or postgraduate work?”
98 DK (DO NOT PROBE)

* 99 NA / REFUSED
D2
“GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent
or what?”
(IF REPUBLICAN): “Would you call yourself a STRONG Republican or a NOT VERY STRONG
Republican?”
(IF DEMOCRAT): “Would you call yourself a STRONG Democrat or a NOT VERY STRONG Democrat?”
(IF INDEPENDENT, NO PREFERENCE, OR OTHER): “Do you think of yourself as closer to the
Republican or to the Democratic party?”
1 STRONG DEMOCRAT
2 NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT
3 INDEPENDENT, BUT CLOSER TO DEMOCRATS
4 INDEPENDENT--CLOSER TO NEITHER
5 INDEPENDENT, BUT CLOSER TO REPUBLICANS
6 NOT VERY STRONG REPUBLICAN
7 STRONG REPUBLICAN
8 OTHER PARTY
* 99 DK / NA / REFUSED
11
VOTEHIST
"Now, please think about elections you have voted in over the last five years . . . including local, state, and
national elections. Would you say you have voted for more Democrats . . . more Republicans . . . or that you
have voted for almost exactly the same number of each?"
IF DEMOCRATS--"Have you voted only for Democrats, mostly for Democrats, or for slightly more
Democrats than Republicans?"
IF REPUBLICANS--"Have you voted only for Republicans, mostly for Republicans, or for slightly more
Republicans than Democrats?"
1 ONLY DEMOCRATS
2 MOSTLY DEMOCRATS
3 SLIGHTLY MORE DEMOCRATS
4 ALMOST SAME DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS
5 SLIGHTLY MORE REPUBLICANS
6 MOSTLY REPUBLICANS
7 ONLY REPUBLICANS
98 DK
99 NA
D3
“What is your current age?”
RECORD EXACT NUMBER OF YEARS OLD -- E.G., 45
96 NINETY-SIX YEARS OF AGE OR OLDER
97 REFUSED
98 DK
* 99 NA
D5
“Are you of Hispanic or Spanish origin?"
1 YES
2 NO
98 DON'T KNOW
* 99 REFUSED
12
D6
“Which of the following best describes your race? Is it ...White ... African-American ... Asian ... Native-
American ... or some other race?”
1 WHITE (CAUCASIAN)
2 BLACK (AFRICAN-AMERICAN)
3 HISPANIC
4 ASIAN
5 NATIVE AMERICAN
6 OTHER - SPECIFY: ________________________________
98 DON'T KNOW
* 99 NO ANSWER/REFUSED
D7
“Including yourself, how many adults CURRENTLY live in your household?”
1 ONE - JUST RESPONDENT

2 TWO
3 THREE
4 FOUR
5 FIVE
6 SIX
7 SEVEN OR MORE
98 DK
* 99 NA / REFUSED
D8
“How much TOTAL income did you and your family receive in 2009, not just from wages or salaries but
from ALL sources -- that is, before taxes and other deductions were made? Was it ….” (READ
CATEGORIES)
ANNUAL MONTHLY EQUIVALENT
1 Less than $15,000, LESS THAN $1,250

2 $15,000 - $29,999, $1,250 - $2,499
3 $30,000 - $44,999, $2,500 - $3,749
4 $45,000 - $59,999, $3,750 - $4,999
5 $60,000 - $74,999, $5,000 - $6,249
6 $75,000 - $99,999, $6,250 - $8,333
7 $100,000 to $149,999, or $8,334 - $12,4999
8 $150,000 and over?” $12,500 or more
* 97 REFUSED – PROBE: “Which of these categories is closest to your income …”

* 98 DK – PROBE: “Which of these categories is closest to your income …”
* 99 NA – PROBE: “Which of these categories is closest to your income …”
13
D9
“Not counting business lines, extension phones, or cellular phones -- on how many different telephone
NUMBERS can your household be reached?”
1 ONE
2 TWO
3 THREE
4 FOUR
5 FIVE
6 SIX
7 SEVEN OR MORE
98 DK
* 99 NA / REFUSED
D10
“Finally, would you be willing to be interviewed by a reporter to discuss your reactions to some of the topics
we've been talking about?”
1 YES “Could I have just your first name in case a reporter wants to call you?” ____________
2 NO / DK (DO NOT PROBE)
99 NA / REFUSED
“Thank you for your time and participation. Your input has been very valuable. Goodbye.”
14
Tabular Results
15
“Do you think things in Massachusetts are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?”
Right Wrong Don't

Direction Track Know (N=)
MA LIKELY VOTERS 39% 55% 5% 515
Registered Democrat 62% 32% 7% 180

Registered Undeclared 30% 64% 6% 265
Registered Republican 15% 83% 1% 71
Democrat 65% 28% 7% 255

Independent 15% 82% 3% 95
Republican 11% 85% 4% 160
Core Republican 6% 92% 2% 142

Swing Voter 23% 73% 5% 133
Core Democrat 68% 25% 8% 240
Baker voter 8% 89% 3% 197

Patrick voter 75% 17% 8% 219
Cahill voter 21% 77% 2% 39
Other/Undecided voter 21% 72% 7% 52
Excited about November 33% 63% 4% 290

Depressed about November 52% 43% 5% 139
Neither Excited/Depressed 42% 49% 10% 85
Extremely interested in election 28% 70% 2% 209

Very interested 48% 45% 6% 237
Somewhat/Not Very interested 42% 47% 12% 69
Definitely will vote 38% 57% 5% 453

Will vote unless emergency 47% 44% 9% 62
Trust current incumbents 77% 20% 3% 144

Want new crop of leaders 12% 85% 2% 251
Other/Don't Know 50% 36% 14% 119
Approve of Patrick 76% 17% 6% 227

Disapprove of Patrick 8% 91% 1% 253
Neither Approve/Disapprove 23% 46% 31% 34
Male 38% 59% 2% 254

Female 40% 52% 8% 262
35 or under 41% 56% 3% 39

35 to 49 33% 58% 9% 113
50 to 64 47% 49% 4% 194
65 and over 35% 59% 6% 155
High school or less 22% 76% 2% 77

Some college 32% 65% 3% 96
College graduate 39% 54% 7% 209
Post-graduate 55% 38% 7% 128
White 39% 56% 5% 455

Minority 49% 44% 6% 50
Inside 128 49% 47% 4% 111

128 to 495 37% 57% 7% 191
Central MA 30% 64% 6% 91
Western MA 43% 54% 3% 60
Southern MA/Cape/Islands 40% 55% 4% 62
16
“GENERALLY SPEAKING, do you approve or disapprove of the way Deval Patrick is handling his job as governor?”
Approve Neutral Disapprove (N=)


Democrat 73% 7% 19% 256

Republican 11% 3% 86% 161

Swing Voter 26% 9% 66% 133
Baker voter 7% 1% 92% 198






Male 39% 5% 56% 256

Female 50% 7% 43% 262
35 or under 48% 9% 43% 39

35 to 49 34% 7% 59% 113
50 to 64 49% 5% 46% 197
65 and over 45% 8% 47% 155

White 43% 6% 51% 458

Minority 58% 15% 27% 50
Inside 128 58% 3% 38% 112

128 to 495 37% 10% 53% 190
Central MA 38% 3% 59% 91
Western MA 51% 4% 45% 60
17
“Next, I'd like to get your overall opinion of the candidates in the Gubernatorial election. As I read each name, please say if you have a
favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her ... Governor Deval Patrick.”
Favorable Neutral Unfavorable DK (N=)

MA LIKELY VOTERS 49% 6% 43% 2% 518
Registered Democrat 76% 7% 14% 2% 182

Registered Undeclared 41% 6% 52% 1% 265
Registered Republican 10% 6% 83% 1% 72
Democrat 82% 5% 11% 2% 256

Independent 26% 14% 59% 1% 96
Republican 11% 3% 85% 2% 161
Core Republican 6% 2% 91% 1% 144

Swing Voter 31% 11% 57% 1% 133
Core Democrat 85% 6% 7% 2% 242
Baker voter 9% 3% 88% 1% 198

Patrick voter 91% 5% 2% 1% 221
Cahill voter 34% 10% 54% 2% 39
Other/Undecided voter 37% 21% 37% 5% 53
Excited about November 39% 3% 56% 1% 293

Depressed about November 68% 9% 22% 1% 139
Neither Excited/Depressed 52% 11% 34% 3% 85
Extremely interested in election 37% 5% 58% 0% 210

Very interested 56% 6% 35% 2% 238
Somewhat/Not Very interested 61% 11% 25% 3% 69
Definitely will vote 47% 6% 45% 1% 455

Will vote unless emergency 64% 5% 29% 2% 63
Trust current incumbents 88% 3% 9% 0% 145

Want new crop of leaders 19% 8% 72% 2% 252
Other/Don't Know 65% 7% 24% 3% 121
Approve of Patrick 93% 3% 4% 0% 228

Disapprove of Patrick 9% 7% 84% 1% 255
Neither Approve/Disapprove 60% 27% 4% 9% 34
Male 44% 6% 50% 1% 256

Female 54% 7% 37% 2% 263
35 or under 55% 3% 41% 1% 39

35 to 49 45% 1% 52% 2% 114
50 to 64 55% 6% 39% 1% 196
65 and over 45% 11% 41% 3% 155
High school or less 32% 3% 61% 4% 77

Some college 46% 13% 41% 1% 97
College graduate 49% 6% 43% 1% 210
Post-graduate 62% 4% 34% 0% 129
White 48% 5% 45% 1% 458

Minority 62% 16% 20% 2% 50
Inside 128 61% 12% 26% 1% 111

128 to 495 45% 6% 48% 1% 191
Central MA 40% 2% 56% 3% 91
Western MA 50% 6% 43% 2% 60
Southern MA/Cape/Islands 53% 5% 40% 2% 65
18
favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her ... State Treasurer Tim Cahill.”

MA LIKELY VOTERS 24% 15% 46% 15% 519

Democrat 28% 20% 34% 18% 257

Independent 21% 16% 51% 13% 96
Republican 20% 6% 63% 11% 161

Swing Voter 27% 19% 39% 15% 134
Core Democrat 29% 19% 33% 19% 242
Baker voter 16% 7% 70% 8% 198

Patrick voter 22% 22% 37% 19% 221
Cahill voter 82% 5% 5% 8% 39




Other/Don't Know 32% 19% 35% 14% 121

Male 23% 12% 53% 12% 256

Female 25% 18% 39% 18% 264
35 or under 28% 8% 45% 19% 39

35 to 49 30% 12% 44% 14% 114
50 to 64 23% 18% 46% 13% 197
65 and over 22% 14% 47% 18% 155

Some college 25% 17% 44% 14% 98
Post-graduate 21% 15% 54% 9% 129
White 25% 14% 46% 14% 460

Minority 19% 25% 34% 22% 50
Inside 128 30% 21% 40% 10% 112

128 to 495 22% 15% 54% 10% 191
Central MA 21% 12% 48% 18% 91
Western MA 23% 14% 30% 34% 60
19
favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her ... Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie
Baker.”


Democrat 11% 8% 66% 15% 257

Independent 50% 14% 20% 17% 96
Republican 74% 5% 11% 10% 161

Swing Voter 48% 15% 21% 16% 134
Core Democrat 8% 6% 70% 16% 242
Baker voter 80% 8% 5% 6% 198

Patrick voter 6% 6% 74% 14% 221
Cahill voter 21% 15% 44% 20% 39




Other/Don't Know 23% 10% 51% 15% 121

Male 43% 8% 37% 11% 256

Female 33% 8% 43% 16% 264
35 or under 37% 5% 44% 15% 39

35 to 49 43% 8% 31% 19% 114
50 to 64 35% 8% 44% 12% 197
65 and over 37% 9% 41% 12% 155

Some college 36% 11% 41% 12% 98
Post-graduate 31% 6% 53% 10% 129
White 40% 9% 39% 12% 460

Minority 16% 0% 56% 28% 50
Inside 128 26% 10% 54% 10% 112

128 to 495 44% 8% 37% 11% 191
Central MA 47% 8% 31% 14% 91
Western MA 34% 4% 39% 24% 60
20
favorable or unfavorable opinion of this person -- or if you have never heard of him or her ... Green Party gubernatorial candidate Jill Stein.”

MA LIKELY VOTERS 16% 10% 24% 49% 519

Democrat 24% 8% 19% 49% 257

Independent 16% 12% 21% 51% 96
Republican 4% 13% 34% 49% 161

Swing Voter 12% 9% 22% 58% 134
Core Democrat 26% 9% 17% 48% 242
Baker voter 4% 12% 35% 48% 198

Patrick voter 22% 10% 21% 48% 221
Cahill voter 18% 10% 8% 63% 39




Other/Don't Know 19% 10% 27% 44% 121

Male 14% 12% 30% 44% 256

Female 18% 9% 19% 54% 264
35 or under 23% 13% 14% 51% 39

35 to 49 9% 14% 26% 51% 114
50 to 64 21% 8% 23% 48% 197
65 and over 13% 12% 26% 48% 155

Some college 17% 6% 27% 50% 98
Post-graduate 21% 12% 27% 40% 129
White 16% 10% 25% 49% 460

Minority 19% 15% 16% 50% 50
Inside 128 33% 11% 15% 42% 112

128 to 495 10% 10% 31% 49% 191
Central MA 11% 11% 25% 53% 91
Western MA 17% 8% 22% 53% 60
21
“Think for a minute about political incumbents, the people in Washington and Massachusetts who are currently in office. Overall, do you
trust current political incumbents to provide leadership in Washington and Massachusetts or do you think political incumbents in Washington
and Massachusetts need to be replaced by a new crop of leaders?”
Trust Want New

Current Crop of Other/ Don’t
Incumbents Leaders Depends Know (N=)

Democrat 48% 22% 24% 6% 257

Independent 5% 72% 17% 5% 95
Republican 8% 79% 11% 2% 161

Swing Voter 10% 66% 19% 5% 133
Core Democrat 50% 19% 24% 6% 242
Baker voter 6% 80% 13% 1% 198

Patrick voter 54% 16% 24% 6% 221
Cahill voter 15% 56% 27% 3% 39




Male 24% 56% 17% 4% 255

Female 32% 42% 20% 5% 264
35 or under 31% 53% 15% 0% 39

35 to 49 29% 57% 8% 6% 114
50 to 64 29% 41% 26% 4% 197
65 and over 26% 51% 18% 5% 154

Some college 22% 60% 15% 4% 98
Post-graduate 42% 31% 23% 4% 129
White 28% 49% 19% 4% 459

Minority 32% 40% 20% 8% 50
Inside 128 33% 40% 21% 5% 112

128 to 495 21% 52% 22% 5% 191
Central MA 26% 58% 13% 3% 91
Western MA 34% 49% 15% 3% 60
22
“Thinking about all of the elections in November, both in Massachusetts and in other parts of the country, how do you feel about what will
happen in the November elections? Are you very excited … somewhat excited … somewhat depressed … or very depressed?”
Very Somewhat Somewhat Very Don't

Excited Excited Neutral Depressed Depressed Know (N=)
MA LIKELY VOTERS 16% 41% 14% 22% 5% 3% 518
Registered Democrat 7% 38% 14% 33% 6% 2% 181

Registered Undeclared 18% 41% 15% 18% 5% 3% 266
Registered Republican 29% 45% 10% 11% 3% 2% 70
Democrat 7% 35% 13% 35% 8% 3% 257

Independent 17% 45% 20% 12% 2% 3% 96
Republican 29% 47% 12% 8% 2% 2% 159
Core Republican 39% 42% 9% 7% 2% 2% 142

Swing Voter 10% 51% 21% 12% 2% 4% 134
Core Democrat 6% 34% 13% 37% 8% 2% 242
Baker voter 32% 46% 10% 9% 1% 2% 197

Patrick voter 6% 37% 13% 32% 8% 3% 221
Cahill voter 16% 38% 27% 18% 0% 2% 39
Other/Undecided voter 1% 39% 13% 34% 5% 7% 53
Extremely interested in election 28% 40% 10% 16% 3% 3% 210

Very interested 10% 43% 16% 24% 5% 2% 238
Somewhat/Not Very interested 1% 34% 18% 35% 7% 4% 69
Definitely will vote 18% 40% 13% 22% 4% 3% 454

Will vote unless emergency 4% 44% 16% 23% 11% 2% 63
Trust current incumbents 9% 36% 13% 32% 7% 3% 144

Want new crop of leaders 25% 44% 8% 19% 2% 2% 252
Other/Don't Know 6% 40% 25% 17% 9% 3% 121
Approve of Patrick 7% 40% 15% 29% 7% 3% 228

Disapprove of Patrick 26% 42% 11% 15% 3% 2% 254
Neither Approve/Disapprove 0% 30% 26% 32% 5% 7% 34
Male 18% 40% 15% 20% 5% 2% 254

Female 14% 41% 13% 25% 5% 3% 263
35 or under 10% 58% 7% 24% 2% 0% 39

35 to 49 18% 44% 11% 22% 2% 2% 114
50 to 64 14% 39% 17% 24% 5% 2% 197
65 and over 18% 35% 14% 21% 6% 5% 155
High school or less 19% 34% 23% 21% 1% 2% 77

Some college 12% 44% 14% 18% 9% 3% 98
College graduate 19% 42% 14% 19% 3% 3% 210
Post-graduate 12% 39% 9% 31% 7% 3% 128
White 17% 40% 14% 21% 5% 3% 459

Minority 8% 46% 8% 34% 2% 1% 50
Inside 128 15% 37% 16% 24% 6% 2% 112

128 to 495 17% 44% 12% 21% 3% 3% 190
Central MA 20% 43% 11% 17% 5% 4% 91
Western MA 15% 38% 19% 23% 2% 3% 60
Southern MA/Cape/Islands 10% 37% 13% 30% 8% 3% 64
23
“And as you know, the general election for Governor of Massachusetts and other offices is being held in November 2010. How interested
would you say you are in the 2010 general election ... extremely interested ... very interested ... somewhat interested ... or not very
interested?”
Extremely Very Somewhat Not Very

Interested Interested Interested Interested (N=)
ALL MA ADULTS 41% 46% 12% 2% 519

Democrat 31% 53% 14% 2% 257

Independent 44% 43% 10% 3% 96
Republican 55% 35% 10% 0% 161

Swing Voter 42% 45% 11% 2% 134
Core Democrat 29% 54% 15% 2% 242
Baker voter 56% 37% 7% 0% 198

Patrick voter 27% 55% 15% 3% 221
Cahill voter 57% 38% 5% 0% 39



Other/Don't Know 34% 51% 12% 3% 121

Male 47% 42% 9% 2% 256

Female 35% 50% 14% 1% 263
35 or under 28% 50% 22% 0% 39

35 to 49 43% 39% 14% 4% 114
50 to 64 41% 48% 10% 1% 197
65 and over 40% 49% 10% 1% 155

Some college 43% 47% 10% 0% 98
Post graduate 39% 50% 9% 2% 129
White 42% 45% 11% 2% 459

Minority 27% 52% 21% 0% 50
Inside 128 35% 50% 13% 1% 112

128 to 495 41% 45% 11% 3% 190
Central MA 43% 42% 14% 1% 91
Western MA 43% 49% 8% 0% 60
24
"Which of the following statements best describes you ... I will probably not vote in the November general election, I may vote in the
November general election, unless some emergency comes up, I will vote in the November general election, I will definitely vote in the
November general election, or I just don't know at this time."
Will Vote Will

Unless Definitely
Emergency Vote (N=)
ALL MA ADULTS 12% 88% 519
Registered Democrat 11% 89% 182

Registered Undeclared 14% 86% 266
Registered Republican 8% 92% 72
Democrat 15% 85% 257

Independent 12% 88% 96
Republican 10% 90% 161
Core Republican 7% 93% 144

Swing Voter 14% 86% 134
Core Democrat 14% 86% 242
Baker voter 9% 91% 198

Patrick voter 16% 84% 221
Cahill voter 8% 92% 39
Other/Undecided voter 14% 86% 53
Excited about November 10% 90% 293

Depressed about November 16% 84% 140
Neither Excited/Depressed 13% 87% 85
Extremely interested in election 3% 97% 211

Very interested 14% 86% 238
Somewhat/Not Very interested 33% 67% 69
Trust current incumbents 14% 86% 145

Want new crop of leaders 11% 89% 253
Other/Don't Know 13% 87% 121
Approve of Patrick 16% 84% 229

Disapprove of Patrick 9% 91% 255
Neither Approve/Disapprove 14% 86% 34
Male 11% 89% 256

Female 14% 86% 264
35 or under 10% 90% 39

35 to 49 18% 82% 114
50 to 64 13% 87% 197
65 and over 8% 92% 155
High school or less 11% 89% 77

Some college 16% 84% 98
College graduate 13% 87% 210
Post-graduate 11% 89% 129
White 12% 88% 460

Minority 14% 86% 50
Inside 128 12% 88% 112

128 to 495 13% 87% 191
Central MA 13% 87% 91
Western MA 13% 87% 60
Southern MA/Cape/Islands 10% 90% 65
25
“Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the election for Massachusetts governor in 2010 … are you leaning toward someone …
or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?”
Def. Leaning Still

Decided Toward Trying To
Vote Someone Decide (N=)

Democrat 61% 19% 20% 257

Republican 68% 15% 17% 159

Swing Voter 33% 24% 43% 134
Baker voter 69% 15% 16% 197






Male 63% 19% 19% 254

Female 55% 16% 28% 264
35 or under 41% 26% 32% 39

35 to 49 49% 19% 33% 114
50 to 64 66% 16% 18% 197
65 and over 63% 16% 21% 153

White 58% 18% 23% 458

Minority 67% 10% 23% 50
Inside 128 63% 14% 23% 112

128 to 495 60% 21% 19% 189
Central MA 53% 17% 31% 91
Western MA 59% 17% 24% 60
26
“If the 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election was being held TODAY and the candidates are Charlie Baker, the Republican … Deval
Patrick, the Democrat … Tim Cahill, the Independent … and Jill Stein, the Green-Rainbow candidate, who would you vote for ... Charlie
Baker … Deval Patrick … Tim Cahill … or Jill Stein?”
Don't
Baker Patrick Cahill Stein Other Know (N=)
MA LIKELY VOTERS 39% 43% 8% 2% 1% 8% 512

Democrat 8% 78% 7% 1% 0% 6% 255

Independent 49% 9% 14% 9% 2% 18% 91
Republican 83% 7% 5% 0% 1% 4% 160
Core Republican 90% 3% 3% 0% 0% 4% 144

Swing Voter 47% 15% 16% 4% 2% 16% 128
Core Democrat 4% 82% 6% 2% 0% 5% 241
Excited about November 53% 33% 7% 1% 0% 6% 291

Depressed about November 15% 65% 5% 6% 1% 8% 137
Neither Excited/Depressed 29% 44% 14% 0% 1% 12% 82

Very interested 31% 52% 6% 1% 2% 8% 235


Other/Don't Know 22% 56% 10% 0% 1% 11% 119

Male 46% 37% 9% 2% 1% 5% 250

Female 32% 49% 6% 3% 1% 10% 262
35 or under 36% 41% 6% 7% 3% 6% 39

35 to 49 43% 37% 12% 1% 0% 6% 114
50 to 64 38% 50% 6% 0% 1% 6% 190
65 and over 38% 41% 7% 4% 0% 9% 154

Some college 37% 44% 8% 1% 1% 8% 97
Post-graduate 31% 58% 3% 2% 0% 6% 129
White 41% 42% 8% 1% 1% 7% 454

Minority 13% 62% 1% 11% 2% 10% 50
Inside 128 24% 53% 13% 2% 0% 8% 110

128 to 495 46% 41% 4% 2% 1% 6% 186
Central MA 48% 36% 7% 1% 1% 7% 91
Western MA 32% 40% 14% 2% 0% 12% 60
27
“Who would your second choice be?”
No Second Don't
Baker Patrick Cahill Stein Other Choice Know (N=)
MA LIKELY VOTERS 8% 6% 25% 13% 1% 44% 3% 472
Registered Democrat 8% 5% 24% 21% 0% 40% 2% 162

Registered Undeclared 9% 8% 24% 10% 1% 44% 3% 242
Registered Republican 5% 4% 28% 5% 2% 53% 2% 69
Democrat 10% 4% 25% 21% 1% 37% 3% 238

Independent 6% 13% 16% 6% 1% 55% 3% 75
Republican 6% 6% 30% 5% 2% 49% 2% 154
Core Republican 4% 5% 25% 6% 2% 55% 3% 137

Swing Voter 11% 13% 29% 4% 2% 39% 2% 107
Core Democrat 9% 4% 23% 22% 0% 39% 3% 228
Baker voter 1% 9% 29% 4% 2% 52% 2% 198

Patrick voter 8% 0% 27% 22% 0% 40% 3% 220
Cahill voter 46% 22% 0% 13% 1% 16% 2% 39
Other/Undecided voter 0% 16% 12% 0% 0% 64% 8% 15
Excited about November 6% 6% 25% 9% 1% 50% 3% 273

Depressed about November 6% 3% 25% 24% 1% 38% 2% 125
Neither Excited/Depressed 17% 11% 25% 11% 1% 32% 4% 72
Extremely interested in election 8% 4% 26% 12% 2% 48% 1% 194

Very interested 8% 7% 25% 16% 1% 39% 4% 217
Somewhat/Not Very interested 9% 10% 22% 7% 0% 49% 4% 61
Definitely will vote 8% 6% 26% 14% 1% 43% 2% 416

Will vote unless emergency 8% 5% 17% 7% 0% 54% 9% 57
Trust current incumbents 6% 3% 23% 25% 0% 39% 4% 137

Want new crop of leaders 9% 8% 22% 6% 2% 50% 3% 230
Other/Don't Know 9% 5% 34% 13% 0% 38% 1% 105
Approve of Patrick 6% 5% 24% 20% 0% 41% 3% 209

Disapprove of Patrick 9% 7% 25% 6% 2% 48% 3% 236
Neither Approve/Disapprove 11% 9% 32% 17% 0% 29% 2% 25
Male 8% 6% 26% 13% 1% 45% 1% 236

Female 8% 6% 24% 13% 1% 43% 4% 237
35 or under 0% 9% 34% 8% 3% 40% 6% 37

35 to 49 12% 5% 24% 12% 0% 42% 6% 108
50 to 64 5% 4% 33% 18% 2% 38% 0% 179
65 and over 9% 9% 14% 9% 0% 55% 3% 138
High school or less 16% 12% 20% 2% 5% 38% 7% 69

Some college 7% 7% 24% 8% 1% 50% 3% 89
College graduate 7% 6% 27% 13% 1% 45% 1% 194
Post-graduate 4% 2% 25% 24% 0% 41% 4% 120
White 8% 6% 26% 13% 1% 42% 3% 422

Minority 4% 5% 18% 18% 0% 55% 0% 45
Inside 128 12% 8% 21% 14% 0% 43% 2% 101

128 to 495 5% 6% 30% 11% 2% 45% 1% 173
Central MA 6% 5% 27% 13% 1% 45% 3% 85
Western MA 11% 10% 16% 18% 1% 40% 5% 54
Southern MA/Cape/Islands 10% 3% 22% 14% 0% 46% 6% 60
28
“If the 2010 election for Massachusetts state Treasurer was being held TODAY and the candidates are Karyn Polito, the Republican and
Steve Grossman, the Democrat, who would you vote for ... Karyn Polito … or Steve Grossman?”
Don't
Polito Grossman Other Know (N=)

Democrat 12% 66% 0% 22% 257

Independent 44% 22% 3% 31% 91
Republican 73% 7% 1% 19% 161

Swing Voter 40% 21% 3% 36% 129
Core Democrat 8% 70% 0% 21% 242




Other/Don't Know 19% 49% 0% 32% 119

Male 45% 36% 1% 17% 251

Female 29% 42% 0% 28% 263
35 or under 39% 34% 3% 23% 39

35 to 49 44% 33% 0% 23% 114
50 to 64 33% 46% 0% 21% 193
65 and over 37% 38% 2% 24% 155

Some college 40% 36% 1% 23% 98
Post-graduate 26% 46% 1% 26% 129
White 39% 37% 1% 23% 457

Minority 15% 63% 2% 20% 50
Inside 128 21% 59% 0% 20% 112

128 to 495 38% 34% 1% 27% 186
Central MA 52% 23% 2% 23% 91
Western MA 41% 40% 0% 19% 60
29
“And if the 2010 election for Massachusetts state Auditor was being held TODAY and the candidates are Mary Connaughton, the Republican
and Suzanne Bump, the Democrat, who would you vote for ... Mary Connaughton … or Suzanne Bump”
Conn- Don't
aughton Bump Other Know (N=)

Democrat 12% 54% 2% 32% 253

Independent 37% 13% 4% 46% 91
Republican 61% 11% 1% 27% 159

Swing Voter 31% 16% 4% 49% 127
Core Democrat 9% 58% 1% 31% 239




Other/Don't Know 16% 41% 2% 41% 119

Male 38% 29% 3% 30% 250

Female 26% 37% 1% 36% 259
35 or under 17% 41% 7% 35% 39

35 to 49 33% 26% 1% 40% 114
50 to 64 30% 39% 0% 30% 187
65 and over 36% 29% 3% 32% 154

Some college 29% 31% 3% 38% 96
Post-graduate 26% 39% 3% 32% 128
White 34% 30% 2% 34% 452

Minority 11% 64% 3% 22% 49
Inside 128 24% 42% 1% 34% 109

128 to 495 37% 26% 2% 35% 185
Central MA 38% 22% 4% 37% 90
Western MA 29% 39% 2% 30% 60
30
“And if the 2010 election for Massachusetts Attorney General was being held TODAY and the candidates are James McKenna, the
Republican, and Martha Coakley, the Democrat, who would you vote for ... James McKenna ... or Martha Coakley?”
Don't
McKenna Coakley Other Know (N=)

Democrat 7% 85% 1% 7% 257

Independent 46% 33% 3% 19% 91
Republican 73% 21% 1% 5% 161

Swing Voter 38% 45% 4% 14% 128
Core Democrat 4% 89% 1% 6% 242




Other/Don't Know 14% 71% 1% 14% 119

Male 43% 48% 2% 7% 251

Female 27% 62% 1% 9% 263
35 or under 41% 45% 3% 11% 39

35 to 49 38% 53% 0% 8% 114
50 to 64 28% 66% 0% 6% 192
65 and over 39% 49% 2% 10% 155

Some college 37% 52% 2% 9% 98
Post-graduate 22% 66% 3% 10% 129
White 36% 55% 1% 8% 456

Minority 20% 68% 2% 9% 50
Inside 128 21% 71% 1% 6% 112

128 to 495 35% 54% 1% 10% 186
Central MA 45% 39% 3% 12% 91
Western MA 37% 58% 0% 5% 60
31
"Please think about the November election for your representative to the U.S. House of Representatives. Do you plan to vote for the
Democratic or Republican candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives ... or do you plan to skip the election for U.S. House of
Representatives this time?"
Don't
GOP DEM Other Know (N=)

Democrat 3% 84% 1% 12% 252

Independent 41% 17% 7% 35% 89
Republican 77% 7% 3% 13% 158

Swing Voter 31% 21% 8% 40% 123
Core Democrat 0% 89% 1% 10% 239




Other/Don't Know 14% 59% 4% 24% 116

Male 39% 44% 3% 13% 248

Female 27% 51% 2% 20% 256
35 or under 30% 45% 6% 18% 38

35 to 49 39% 48% 0% 13% 111
50 to 64 30% 52% 3% 14% 189
65 and over 31% 43% 3% 23% 152

Some college 32% 38% 7% 24% 96
Post-graduate 27% 58% 2% 13% 127
White 35% 45% 3% 18% 447

Minority 15% 73% 5% 7% 48
Inside 128 16% 61% 4% 19% 109

128 to 495 37% 44% 3% 15% 184
Central MA 40% 38% 2% 20% 90
Western MA 36% 43% 1% 20% 59
32
"And turning to the November election for your representative for the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Do you plan to vote for the
Democratic or Republican candidate for the Massachusetts House of Representatives ... or do you plan to skip the election for Massachusetts
House of Representatives this time?"
Don't
GOP DEM Other Know (N=)

Democrat 5% 82% 0% 13% 251

Independent 43% 16% 5% 36% 89
Republican 77% 9% 1% 12% 157

Swing Voter 37% 20% 5% 38% 123
Core Democrat 1% 88% 0% 11% 236




Other/Don't Know 22% 58% 2% 19% 118

Male 41% 41% 2% 16% 245

Female 29% 52% 1% 19% 256
35 or under 29% 34% 3% 34% 37

35 to 49 42% 45% 0% 13% 111
50 to 64 34% 52% 0% 14% 189
65 and over 32% 45% 3% 21% 151

Some college 36% 40% 2% 22% 95
Post-graduate 28% 56% 3% 13% 125
White 37% 44% 1% 18% 449

Minority 12% 74% 5% 9% 45
Inside 128 14% 59% 1% 26% 109

128 to 495 41% 43% 2% 14% 184
Central MA 41% 38% 2% 19% 90
Western MA 34% 46% 0% 20% 59
33
“As you may know, Question 1 on the November ballot is a proposal to eliminate sales tax on alcohol sold in Massachusetts. Do you favor or
oppose ballot Question 1, the proposal to eliminate the sales tax on alcohol sold in Massachusetts, or haven’t you thought about this enough to
say?”
Strongly Somewhat Somewhat Strongly Don't

Favor Favor Oppose Oppose Know (N=)
MA LIKELY VOTERS 29% 8% 14% 38% 11% 518
Registered Democrat 20% 6% 15% 44% 14% 182

Registered Undeclared 31% 9% 14% 36% 10% 264
Registered Republican 43% 10% 13% 27% 8% 72
Democrat 14% 7% 16% 50% 13% 257

Independent 48% 4% 13% 27% 8% 94
Republican 42% 12% 12% 23% 10% 161
Core Republican 49% 8% 13% 22% 8% 144

Swing Voter 35% 10% 13% 31% 11% 132
Core Democrat 14% 7% 16% 50% 13% 242
Baker voter 51% 10% 10% 21% 8% 198

Patrick voter 11% 7% 16% 52% 13% 221
Cahill voter 28% 12% 10% 39% 12% 39
Other/Undecided voter 23% 6% 23% 35% 13% 53
Excited about November 35% 9% 13% 35% 9% 293

Depressed about November 19% 8% 14% 47% 13% 140
Neither Excited/Depressed 23% 8% 21% 33% 15% 83
Extremely interested in election 41% 7% 9% 33% 10% 211

Very interested 23% 8% 19% 41% 10% 237
Somewhat/Not Very interested 12% 13% 15% 43% 17% 69
Definitely will vote 31% 8% 13% 38% 10% 454

Will vote unless emergency 13% 13% 21% 36% 18% 64
Trust current incumbents 11% 3% 17% 59% 10% 145

Want new crop of leaders 42% 10% 11% 26% 10% 252
Other/Don't Know 22% 10% 18% 36% 14% 121
Approve of Patrick 12% 8% 18% 49% 13% 229

Disapprove of Patrick 46% 9% 10% 29% 6% 253
Neither Approve/Disapprove 16% 2% 20% 28% 34% 34
Male 33% 11% 12% 36% 8% 254

Female 25% 5% 16% 39% 14% 264
35 or under 34% 22% 16% 21% 7% 39

35 to 49 23% 10% 12% 45% 10% 114
50 to 64 31% 6% 16% 40% 8% 195
65 and over 27% 6% 15% 36% 17% 155
High school or less 38% 9% 15% 27% 12% 75

Some college 29% 7% 18% 32% 14% 98
College graduate 32% 11% 13% 36% 9% 210
Post-graduate 18% 5% 14% 50% 13% 129
White 29% 8% 14% 39% 10% 460

Minority 23% 12% 19% 29% 18% 50
Inside 128 25% 11% 15% 40% 9% 112

128 to 495 32% 6% 12% 38% 12% 189
Central MA 31% 9% 12% 38% 11% 91
Western MA 22% 8% 13% 40% 16% 60
Southern MA/Cape/Islands 28% 10% 24% 30% 8% 65
34
“As you may know, Question 2 on the November ballot is a proposal that would repeal the state's affordable housing law. Do you favor or
oppose Question 2, the proposal to repeal the state's affordable housing law, or haven't you thought about this enough to say?”

MA LIKELY VOTERS 17% 7% 15% 23% 38% 516

Democrat 9% 4% 17% 29% 41% 256

Independent 19% 9% 13% 26% 34% 94
Republican 27% 11% 13% 12% 37% 161
Core Republican 30% 10% 12% 12% 36% 144

Swing Voter 15% 9% 17% 20% 39% 132
Core Democrat 9% 4% 16% 32% 39% 241
Baker voter 27% 10% 13% 15% 35% 198

Patrick voter 9% 4% 16% 32% 39% 221
Cahill voter 23% 0% 14% 19% 44% 39


Very interested 11% 8% 16% 25% 40% 237


Other/Don't Know 12% 5% 16% 22% 45% 119

Male 21% 6% 15% 23% 34% 254

Female 13% 7% 15% 24% 42% 262
35 or under 7% 5% 12% 35% 41% 39

35 to 49 18% 7% 15% 19% 42% 114
50 to 64 18% 7% 16% 24% 35% 194
65 and over 15% 8% 16% 24% 37% 155

Some college 16% 13% 13% 18% 40% 98
Post-graduate 16% 6% 21% 29% 28% 128
White 17% 7% 15% 23% 37% 459

Minority 8% 8% 11% 26% 47% 49
Inside 128 17% 5% 13% 33% 32% 112

128 to 495 16% 5% 15% 20% 44% 188
Central MA 17% 13% 15% 19% 36% 91
Western MA 17% 5% 12% 27% 39% 60
35
“And as you may know, Question 3 on the November ballot is a proposal to reduce the state sales tax from 6 point two-five percent to 3
percent. Do you favor or oppose ballot Question 3, the proposal to reduce the state sales tax from 6 point two-five percent to 3 percent, or
haven’t you thought about this enough to say?”

MA LIKELY VOTERS 35% 8% 12% 38% 7% 518

Democrat 15% 7% 12% 59% 7% 257

Independent 53% 5% 9% 27% 6% 94
Republican 57% 11% 14% 12% 6% 161
Core Republican 65% 11% 14% 7% 3% 144

Swing Voter 44% 6% 12% 30% 8% 132
Core Democrat 13% 6% 12% 61% 8% 242
Baker voter 59% 9% 12% 16% 4% 198

Patrick voter 10% 8% 11% 62% 9% 221
Cahill voter 55% 8% 10% 26% 2% 39


Very interested 25% 9% 13% 48% 5% 237


Other/Don't Know 22% 9% 10% 48% 12% 121

Male 42% 7% 11% 36% 4% 254

Female 28% 9% 13% 41% 9% 264
35 or under 43% 4% 18% 27% 8% 39

35 to 49 41% 7% 17% 32% 3% 114
50 to 64 34% 6% 12% 45% 4% 195
65 and over 30% 11% 9% 39% 10% 155

Some college 37% 12% 13% 31% 7% 98
Post-graduate 27% 3% 13% 48% 8% 129
White 35% 8% 12% 40% 6% 460

Minority 37% 8% 20% 26% 10% 50
Inside 128 26% 11% 6% 50% 7% 112

128 to 495 37% 7% 12% 36% 8% 189
Central MA 40% 5% 13% 36% 5% 91
Western MA 33% 8% 16% 37% 5% 60
36
“Which candidate do you think is the strongest leader?”
Don't
Baker Patrick Cahill Other Know (N=)
MA LIKELY VOTERS 40% 42% 5% 1% 12% 496

Democrat 16% 68% 4% 0% 11% 247

Independent 45% 22% 11% 1% 20% 88
Republican 78% 9% 3% 1% 9% 154
Core Republican 80% 7% 4% 0% 10% 139

Swing Voter 48% 22% 9% 3% 18% 127
Core Democrat 13% 73% 4% 0% 11% 229
Baker voter 84% 7% 1% 1% 8% 194

Patrick voter 8% 83% 1% 0% 7% 211
Cahill voter 28% 19% 45% 0% 9% 37


Very interested 32% 48% 5% 1% 14% 228


Other/Don't Know 21% 54% 6% 0% 19% 116

Male 50% 35% 5% 1% 9% 247

Female 31% 48% 5% 0% 16% 249
35 or under 36% 41% 6% 6% 12% 39

35 to 49 50% 31% 6% 1% 11% 111
50 to 64 36% 48% 5% 0% 11% 190
65 and over 39% 42% 4% 0% 15% 142

Some college 39% 42% 4% 1% 14% 96
Post-graduate 37% 53% 1% 0% 9% 125
White 42% 41% 5% 1% 11% 440

Minority 17% 52% 9% 3% 19% 46
Inside 128 33% 54% 3% 0% 11% 104

128 to 495 49% 36% 4% 0% 11% 184
Central MA 49% 30% 7% 1% 12% 88
Western MA 21% 51% 11% 2% 15% 57
37
“Which candidate do you think best understands people like me?”
Don't
MA LIKELY VOTERS 32% 36% 13% 6% 1% 12% 489

Democrat 7% 63% 14% 5% 0% 10% 246

Independent 44% 12% 11% 14% 1% 17% 87
Republican 67% 5% 12% 2% 2% 12% 151
Core Republican 75% 2% 8% 2% 1% 12% 134

Swing Voter 39% 19% 16% 7% 1% 17% 123
Core Democrat 4% 65% 14% 8% 0% 9% 232
Baker voter 78% 4% 6% 2% 1% 9% 186

Patrick voter 3% 75% 9% 5% 0% 9% 210
Cahill voter 3% 9% 75% 2% 1% 9% 37


Very interested 23% 42% 15% 8% 1% 12% 222


Other/Don't Know 18% 47% 18% 4% 0% 12% 115

Male 38% 34% 13% 5% 1% 10% 240

Female 27% 37% 13% 7% 1% 15% 250
35 or under 31% 34% 6% 13% 3% 12% 38

35 to 49 38% 27% 21% 3% 0% 11% 108
50 to 64 28% 40% 14% 6% 0% 11% 185
65 and over 32% 38% 8% 6% 1% 14% 145

Some college 30% 38% 12% 1% 3% 16% 95
Post-graduate 26% 47% 10% 8% 0% 8% 121
White 34% 35% 14% 5% 0% 11% 435

Minority 14% 51% 5% 14% 3% 14% 47
Inside 128 20% 46% 16% 7% 0% 12% 105

128 to 495 37% 32% 12% 7% 0% 11% 179
Central MA 44% 30% 10% 4% 2% 9% 90
Western MA 25% 36% 17% 2% 2% 17% 56
38
“Which candidate do you think is most likable?”
Don't
MA LIKELY VOTERS 25% 44% 14% 4% 0% 13% 485

Democrat 12% 63% 13% 3% 0% 9% 244

Independent 24% 27% 17% 11% 1% 20% 86
Republican 46% 24% 16% 1% 0% 13% 149
Core Republican 55% 18% 11% 3% 0% 13% 133

Swing Voter 18% 35% 24% 4% 0% 18% 119
Core Democrat 11% 64% 11% 4% 0% 9% 232
Baker voter 50% 23% 15% 2% 0% 10% 185

Patrick voter 9% 71% 7% 3% 0% 10% 209
Cahill voter 16% 19% 47% 3% 0% 14% 35


Very interested 21% 52% 13% 3% 0% 12% 217


Other/Don't Know 10% 56% 15% 4% 0% 16% 119

Male 27% 42% 16% 3% 0% 13% 237

Female 23% 46% 13% 5% 0% 13% 248
35 or under 21% 43% 11% 17% 0% 8% 37

35 to 49 26% 41% 19% 3% 0% 11% 108
50 to 64 26% 46% 15% 2% 0% 11% 184
65 and over 24% 43% 12% 5% 0% 16% 143

Some college 23% 49% 13% 2% 0% 12% 97
Post-graduate 22% 49% 10% 4% 0% 15% 120
White 26% 43% 15% 3% 0% 13% 427

Minority 17% 54% 11% 11% 0% 7% 50
Inside 128 19% 47% 20% 5% 0% 10% 107

128 to 495 27% 47% 12% 2% 0% 11% 173
Central MA 32% 33% 16% 4% 0% 15% 90
Western MA 21% 52% 9% 4% 0% 14% 54
39
"Please think about the November election for your representative to the U.S. House of Representatives. Do you plan to vote for Sean Bielat
(BEE - lat), the Republican ... Barney Frank, the Democrat ... some other candidate ... or do you plan to skip the election for U.S. House of
Representatives this time?”
Bielat Frank Other DK (N=)

4TH CD LIKELY VOTERS 33% 46% 10% 11% 385

Democrat 5% 79% 6% 10% 191

Independent 41% 26% 15% 18% 69
Republican 75% 5% 13% 7% 117




Male 41% 39% 11% 9% 182

Female 26% 51% 10% 13% 203
35 or under 25% 42% 20% 13% 25

35 to 49 35% 42% 14% 8% 83
50 to 64 34% 50% 8% 9% 133
65 and over 32% 46% 8% 14% 139
40
"Please think about the November election for your representative to the U.S. House of Representatives. Do you plan to vote for Jeffrey
Perry, the Republican ... William Keating, the Democrat ... Maryanne Lewis, the independent candidate ... James Sheets, the other
independent candidate ... some other candidate ... or do you plan to skip the election for U.S. House of Representatives this time?"
Perry Keating Lewis Sheets Other DK (N=)

10TH CD LIKELY VOTERS 33% 37% 3% 2% 3% 23% 349

Democrat 4% 70% 3% 1% 3% 19% 157

Independent 27% 26% 1% 1% 3% 42% 56
Republican 69% 4% 2% 3% 2% 20% 135


Very interested 27% 47% 1% 1% 2% 21% 147


Male 37% 38% 1% 2% 1% 21% 182

Female 28% 37% 4% 2% 4% 25% 168
35 or under 36% 31% 3% 0% 0% 30% 22

35 to 49 28% 37% 2% 0% 3% 29% 73
50 to 64 36% 39% 3% 5% 3% 15% 118
65 and over 31% 38% 2% 1% 2% 25% 133
41

Boston Globe Poll On Key Political Races in Mass.

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Boston Globe Poll On Key Political Races in Mass.

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BOSTON GLOBE POLL #28

MA 2010 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D.

The Survey Center

October 23, 2010

Data Tables ................................................................................ 15

MA 2012 Gubernatorial Election

Conducted by the UNH Survey Center

Field Period: October 17 to October 22, 2010

Hours: 10 a.m. to 9 p.m.

Median Completion Time: 16 minutes

Sampling Error: Full sample +/- 4.0%

Response Rate, Full Sample (AAPOR #4): 29%

Sampling Error: Full 4th CD sample +/- 4.9%

Sampling Error: Full 4th CD sample +/- 5.1%

Response Rate, 4th and 10th CD oversample (AAPOR #4): 20%

1 INFORMANT SKIP TO SEX

99 REFUSED -- ENTER NON-RESPONSE INFORMATION

1 INFORMANT SKIP TO SEX

1 YES SKIP TO SEX

IF ASKED: “This survey will take about ten minutes to complete.”

RECORD SEX OF RESPONDENT

BE SURE TO RECORD TOWN!!

997 OTHER SPECIFY _____________________________

998 DK - DO NOT PROBE

CALCULATE DIST VARIABLE FOR 4TH & 10TH C.D.s

98 DK (PROBE: REPEAT QUESTION)

4 NEITHER, NOT SURE, DK

5 LEAN TOWARD DISAPPROVING

98 NOT REGISTERED / DK (DO NOT PROBE) SKIPTO VOTEMOT

98 DK (DO NOT PROBE)

* 99 NA/REFUSED SKIPTO VOTEMOT

98 DK / NEVER HEARD OF / KNOW TOO LITTLE TO SAY

FAV2 “State Treasurer Tim Cahill.”

FAV3 “Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker.”

FAV4 “Green Party gubernatorial candidate Jill Stein.”

1 DEFINITELY DECIDED WHO WILL VOTE FOR

6 WILL NOT VOTE IN GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION SKIPTO TREAS

98 DK / UNSURE SKIPTO TREAS

4 WILL NOT VOTE IN STATE TREASURER ELECTION

4 WILL NOT VOTE IN STATE AUDITOR ELECTION

4 WILL NOT VOTE IN ATTORNEY GENERAL ELECTION

IF (DIST = 4) SKIPTO CONGD4

4 WILL NOT VOTE IN US HOUSE ELECTION

“Is that strongly or just somewhat?”

98 DK / NOT SURE / HAVEN’T THOUGHT ENOUGH ABOUT IT TO SAY

“Is that strongly or just somewhat?”

98 DK / NOT SURE / HAVEN’T THOUGHT ENOUGH ABOUT IT TO SAY

“Is that strongly or just somewhat?”

98 DK / NOT SURE / HAVEN’T THOUGHT ENOUGH ABOUT IT TO SAY

ROTATE CCHAR1 TO CCHAR3

1 TRUST CURRENT INCUMBENTS

98 DK / NOT SURE – DO NOT PROBE

1 “Eighth grade or less,

98 DK (DO NOT PROBE)

RECORD EXACT NUMBER OF YEARS OLD -- E.G., 45

96 NINETY-SIX YEARS OF AGE OR OLDER

1 ONE - JUST RESPONDENT

ANNUAL MONTHLY EQUIVALENT

1 Less than $15,000, LESS THAN $1,250

* 97 REFUSED – PROBE: “Which of these categories is closest to your income …”

Right Wrong Don't