Technological forecasting

and scenarios matter

Research into the use of information and
communication technology in the home
environment in 2010
H. Bouwman and P. van der Duin
H. Bouwman (H.Bouwman@tbm.tudelft.nl) is Assistant Professor in the Information and Communication Technology Department
and P. van der Duin (p.vanderduin@tbm.tudelft.nl) is a Research Fellow in the Technology, Strategy and Entrepreneurship
Department, both at the Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.

Keywords Forecasting, Technology led strategy, Information, 1. Introduction

Communication, Development
Abstract Information and communication technology (ICT) is
increasingly being used in the home environment, making it a
very important and interesting research topic for communication
scientists. Future developments will influence the way and the
extent to which ICT will be used in the home environment and
therefore the way people look for information, communicate,
make use of entertainment services and carry out transactions.
However, it is still very difficult to make meaningful and accurate
forecasts with regard to the possible future use and acceptance
of ICT in people’s homes. Important reasons are, for example,
that more and more market parties are involved in the
development of innovative ICT products and services. This
makes developments more complex and the outcomes more
uncertain. Furthermore, consumers play an important role in the
development of new ICT-based information, communication,
transaction and entertainment services. Since a precise
prediction of the possible use of ICT in domestic environments
in 2010 is hard to make, other methods of futures research must
be used. Combining technological forecasting with scenario
thinking is such a research method, whereon, technological
forecasting shows the major trends in the specific technology
domain, while scenarios cover the possible future worlds. By
giving end-users a central place in these scenarios, the diversity
of the use and acceptance of innovative products and services
is captured. Thus, the addition of scenarios to the technology
trends gives insight into the possibilities (and impossibilities) of
new ICT-technologies and the way they may be used in the
home environment.
I
nformation and communication technology (ICT) plays an
important role in our society. Technologies are
developing at a fast pace and will increasingly influence
our lives in the near future. No company, entrepreneur,
media company, school or hospital can do without
computers. These computers are more and more linked by
private or public networks. In households in particular, ICT,
such as new multimedia-enabled mobile phones, digital
televisions and PCs are being used with comparatively little
knowledge on the part of the scientific community as to how
they are being used, who has access to them and what the
effects and consequences are with regard to social and
media behaviour. The PC and its portable variety the laptop
computer occupy an important place in everyday life, not
only as far as the working environment is concerned, but also
with regard to leisure, i.e. computer games, access to
archives of television programmes, downloading mp3 ± and
dvd ± files. Viewers can use an intelligent box (the set-top
box) to access interactive digital information using their
television sets. The telephone has evolved from a simple
apparatus in the hall into something that is apparently so
The Emerald Research Register for this journal is available at
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/researchregister
The current issue and full text archive of this
journal is available at
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/1463-6689.htm

f o r e s i g h t 5 ,4 2 0 0 3 , p p . 8 - 1 9 , # M C B U P L im it e d , 1 4 6 3 - 66 8 9 , D O I 1 0 . 1 1 0 8 / 1 4 6 3 6 6 8 0 3 1 0 4 9 4 7 1 7
8
precious to a great number of people that they cannot
relinquish it for even a second and it is used to transmit, for
instance, digital photos, ringtones and multimedia
messages. ICTs are not only visibly present in our houses,
more often than not they are invisible. Washing machines,
ironing and sewing machines are becoming ever more
intelligent and dependent on their software. In the future,
microwave ovens and refrigerators might have a display that
enables people to access relevant information from the
Internet, for instance about traffic jams, before they leave the
house.
Research into these new technologies and the way they
might be accepted and used in the future is significant to
industry (telecom operators, service and both commercial
content providers and providers of content as part of an
e-commerce trajectory), for policy makers (both within
governments and companies) and end-users, i.e. consumers.
In order for the research to be actually used by these actors,
an analysis of potential technological developments in
combination with knowledge with regard to the possible
acceptance and usage is required. Communication scientists,
more than product and business developers, can play an
important role because they are in a position to translate
lessons regarding the use and adoption of media into
opportunities for new emerging technologies (Flichy, 1995).
The objective of this paper is to illustrate how certain
futures research methods, in this case technological
forecasting in combination with scenario analysis, can be
used to develop insight into the acceptance and use of ICT in
the domestic environment in the year 2010.
First, we will pay closer attention to the various methods
of futures research. Second, we will discuss two methods,
technological forecasting and scenarios, in more detail, and
show how these two methods can be combined to make
relevant and significant claims. Third, we present the results
of a technology-forecast analysis aimed at the adoption and
use of ICT in the home environment in the year 2010. We will
present research conducted among experts which will serve
as a validation of relevant trends. We will then describe four
possible scenarios for the year 2010 and show in what way
the results of technological forecasting can be used in
scenarios to provide insight into what the adoption and use
of relevant technologies and services might be.
2. Methods of futures research
Futures research (e.g. scenario analysis, judgmental
forecasting, technological forecasting) can be defined as the
complete range of methods that can be used to look at the
future[1]. These methods can be categorized according to
their function (May, 1996), whether they are predictive,
non-predictive or a combination of both (Fowles, 1978) or
whether they can be used for operational, tactical or strategic
goals (Van der Duin et al., 2001). Different methods are
increasingly being combined (Masini, 2002). Building
scenarios usually starts with carrying out a technology, social
and economic trend analysis. Quantitative and judgmental
forecasting are often used to complement each other
(Masini, 2002).
Choosing the right method is very important for the
practical and future use of the results of these kinds of study
(Galtung, 2003). Factors that might influence the choice of a
specific method are: the level of uncertainty, the time horizon,
the type of variables under analysis (Van der Duin et al.,
2001), participation, duration and costs (Miles et al., 2002),
and phase of innovation (Twiss, 1992). There is a certain
relationship between these various factors. For instance, a
certain correlation between the uncertainty with regard to
technological developments and the accuracy of results
based on the use of specific prediction methods can be
observed (Ascher, 1978) (see Figure 1).
If technologies are merely discussed in scientific panels,
R&D environment and initial stages of the innovation
process, any prediction regarding their future adoption and
use is rather problematic. Once a product or service is
introduced on the market, it is easier to gain a better insight
in its potential by analysing the results of market surveys.
Quantitative, econometric predictions can be drafted on the
basis of data concerning the initial adoption and use. The
uncertainty, with regard to the product or service, is reduced
considerably, but it is as yet unclear whether a product will
be warmly received by consumers and whether initial
adoption trends among innovators will persist. The ``right’’
prediction horizon varies depending on the industry under
investigation (Van Doorn and Van Vught, 1978; Albright,
2002). Media industry has a comparatively short prediction
horizon, while the oil industry uses a prediction horizon
exceeding 20 years.
2.1 Technological forecasting
Technological forecasting is an exploration of developments
in the technology domain in which the possible applicability
Figure 1 Ð Relationship between the level of
uncertainty regarding technologies and the
accuracy of predictions
f o re s ig h t 5 , 4 2 0 0 3
9
is assessed over a longer term (Coates et al., 2001). In other
words, technological forecasting can be used at the initial
stage of the innovation process, when decision makers and
other people involved want to know what the important
trends might be in the years to come. Technological
forecasting is used in many cases, ranging from vision
development on the future to investment decisions with
regard to emerging technologies. Technological forecasting
offers a comprehensive view of the technologies already
available, of emerging technologies and of the way these
technologies influence or substitute each other (Porter et al.,
1991). A disadvantage of technology explorations has to do
with the fact that they often use long-term time horizons,
resulting in an increased level of uncertainty and a
corresponding low level of accuracy when it comes to the
predictions being made. Scenarios are generally considered
good alternatives to technological forecasting.
2.2 Scenarios
People who use scenarios assume that it is impossible to
make straightforward predictions and that it is wise to picture
various alternative futures. Scenarios are expectations
regarding possible futures that provide insight into the way
the future may develop based on clearly defined
assumptions concerning the relationship between relevant
developments. Usually, these relevant developments are
based on input from other methods of futures research, such
as, for instance, trend analysis. Relevant trends serve as the
primary axes along which the alternative scenarios are
constructed. A well-carried-out scenario study addresses
criteria such as plausibility (scenarios are not science fiction),
consistency (prevent combining mutually incompatible
trends), completeness (scenarios are more than a variation
on a single theme) and the validity of the underlying
assumptions (Van der Heijden, 1996). Scenario thinking
broadens people’s horizon by showing them alternatives and
allowing them to rehearse and learn from the future
(Schwartz, 1991; Godet, 2000; Masini and Vasquez, 2000).
Scenarios can best be used in situations with high
uncertainty when managers or decision makers feel that the
world is changing but are not sure in which direction.
Scenarios enhance their ability to anticipate possible future
developments that might affect their business. Scenarios
allow for multiple views regarding possible future
developments (Godet, 2000; Wilson, 2000).
The scenario method is regarded as an instrument that
can assist decision makers very well in their decision-making
process. Famous is the example of oil company Shell who
were able to anticipate in the oil crisis of 1973 by also
including in their set of scenarios the possibility of a shortage
of the supply of oil because of political tensions in the Middle
East and the subsequent rise of the oil prices (Schwartz,
1991; Kleiner, 1996). Ringland (1998) also gives a list of
international companies who have benefited from using
scenarios in developing plans for the future. Although private
f o re s i g h t 5 ,4 2 0 0 3
10
companies often address societal, cultural and political
aspects of the future (and their impact on business) in their
scenarios governments and other non-profit organisations
are also active in developing scenarios for developing policy
(see, for instance, Eames et al., 2000).
2.3 Combining the two methods
Technological forecasting provides valuable input for
scenarios, as it is important to be aware of all the technical
possibilities when constructing scenarios (Coates et al.,
2001). The ``completeness’’ criterion has the advantage that
on the one hand scenarios present accurate pictures of the
technical possibilities, while on the other hand making it clear
why it is that certain technologies have a greater chance of
becoming successful than others. By giving the human
factor a prominent place in the scenarios, technology is
given a ``face’’, which allows us to make it clear what services
will be used in the future. In our vision, technology is nothing
more than an ``enabler’’ and it is only when technologies fit
the needs and attitudes of consumers that they can be
incorporated into a clear picture of the future.
The choice in favour of a particular method to formulate
predictions regarding the adoption and use of ICT is
determined by the development stage of a given technology.
When looking at the year 2010, the only thing we can say for
sure is that the products and services that will be used in
households by that time are now either in their start-up phase
or even in the embryonic stage of their development.
Between a technology, i.e. the ``bare’’ knowledge that it is
available in a conceptual or experimental format in
universities or R&D laboratories, and a service that a large
number of people will utilize on a daily basis, is a world of
difference and an ocean of time. Technology explorations
show us how the technology as such is developing, but it
offers much less information regarding its possible
applications. An example is UMTS, the third generation (3G)
mobile communication. At the moment we can make
reasonably accurate predictions as to in which period this
much-discussed technology will become available. It is less
clear, however, what the explicit services are that will be
marketed on the basis of this technology (location-based or
multimedia services), let alone how consumers will respond
to and adopt these services.
To combine the two methods discussed above (at least)
two conditions need to be fulfilled (Van der Duin et al., 2000):
(1) Technological forecasting and scenarios must have the
same level of abstraction. When technological
forecasting focuses on the adoption and use of personal
digital assistants (PDAs) it makes little sense to combine
it with the trend of globalisation because the two
phenomena have little in common. When we combine
PDAs with the need of consumers to be able to access
information ``anywhere, anyplace’’ we can develop an
idea as to how this trend might affect the use and shape
of PDAs.
(2) Technological forecasting and scenarios must have the
same unit of analysis. When scenarios address the
possible political future of a country and when they are
based on scenario axes ``more vs less freedom’’ and
``centralisation vs decentralisation of political power’’ it
will not be possible to apply them to the use of new
mobile devices.
If both conditions are met, the relationship between
technological forecasting and scenarios can be interpreted
as follows. Scenario development starts where technological
forecasting ends. Technological forecasting is an
extrapolation of developments that begin at some point in
the past (the line running diagonally from ``2000’’). We
assume that these developments will continue for some time
into the future (the dotted line). However, after a certain
length of time it becomes impossible to extend the line (or
development) because there is too much uncertainty (see
also Porter et al., 1996, p. 50). From this point onwards,
scenarios (the four diverging lines) can be used to explore
the future. The horizontal line shows that for different
variables the moment at which there is too much uncertainty
to extrapolate may vary. For example, forecasts concerning
the birth rate are usually relatively accurate for a time horizon
of 15 years, whereas it becomes increasingly difficult to
make accurate predictions concerning the number of mobile
telephones beyond a two-year time frame (Figure 2).
Thus far we have described how we deal with
technological forecasting and scenarios. In the next section
we will illustrate how we collected the data we used to
develop technology forecasts and discuss the main results.
3. Technological forecasting for 2010
We collected data for technological forecasting with regard
to ICT in households through: desk research on
developments in technological domain; and brainstorm
sessions with selected experts in the fields of technology and
communication, with an emphasis on expertise regarding
Figure 2 Ð Combining technological
forecasting and scenarios in time
adoption and use behaviour, organised to validate the major
trends.
3.1 Desk research
Fundamental technological developments, often in the field
of physics, electronics and microelectronics, facilitate
products and services that can be accessed and used by
everyone, independent of carrier, location and time. At the
hardware level key developments are digitisation, increased
processing power, microelectronics, reduced use of energy,
miniaturisation, technical integration and the use of sensors.
At the software level the focus is on compression techniques,
increased intelligence, agent technology, security and an
improved interface between man and machine (Bouwman et
al., 2000).
Hardware and peripheral equipment will become
increasingly interchangeable. TV, PC and telephone will follow
their own specific paths towards a multimedia and even VR-
station (Biocca and Levy, 1995). Eventually the equipment will
be characterised especially by its portability and the
possibility to access both speech and moving images.
Dependence on broadband (mobile) data communication
networks will increase (Anderson et al., 2002).
As far as networks are concerned, we see a development
towards ever-increasing capacity within the transportation
network. The consumer is more interested in the access
network. There, we find a continuing increase in choice and
flexibility. Consumers wanting direct access to the
telecommunication infrastructure have at their disposal a
variety of equipment that is linked to a specific network, be it
the telephone network, the cable network or the mobile
telephone network. The link between equipment and the type
of network being used becomes ever less obvious. The
telephone apparatus can be connected to a telephone line, a
cable, or a data communication network. The network used
to access a service will no longer automatically be the
delivery network. This provides opportunities for intermediary
network management services. Through these services it will
be possible, for example, to order a movie by telephone, to
have it delivered through xDSL at a local server for later
viewing, or directly via optical fibre cables for direct
consumption (Bouwman et al., 2000).
The next generation of these services will be more intuitive
and there will be a trend towards real hypermedia. This
intuitive character is expressed in all forms of usage
(Dertouzous, 1997). Information services will be
characterised by their multimedia nature. People will no
longer look for textual information, but they will visit virtual
reality sites and communities. The abundance of information
produces selection mechanisms such as push media in
combination with highly improved intelligent agents that
increasingly use individual and collective user profiles (Brown
and Duguid, 2000; Dertouzous, 2001; Kurzweil, 1999).
Communication services develop from speech-oriented
systems into systems where people can see one another
f o re s ig h t 5 , 4 2 0 0 3
11
``real time’’. In addition, communication services will focus
more on the management of communication flows and on
intelligent ways to solve coordination problems (Doherty and
Miller, 2000). Transaction services will play an increasingly
important role and by the year 2010 will have a variety of
forms: e-commerce, m-commerce, and c-commerce and
communication channels will be adapted to user needs
depending on the phase in the transaction process.
Entertainment services will, to a large degree, have acquired
the characteristics of personalised and individualised
interactive game-like services. Broadcast service will, to a
certain extent, be replaced by on-demand services.
3.2 Brainstorm
The results of the technology forecast were validated in
several brainstorm sessions. These brainstorm sessions
were supported by an electronic group decision support
system. In all, 28 experts took part. They were selected to
guarantee a diversity of perspectives, and thus to promote
the independence, accuracy and validity of the results. The
experts came from the business community, the scientific
community and from user groups such as the elderly,
immigrants and artists.
The participants were presented with the following three
questions with regard to a ten-year time span:
(1) What are the main underlying technologies that will
determine the use of ICT?
(2) What technologies in the area of ICT will we find in the
domestic environment?
(3) What services will people use in their domestic
environment?
3.3 Fundamental technological trends
Personalisation is important: technologies and services in
the area of ICT are increasingly geared towards individual
demands. The architecture of systems can be increasingly
attributed to individual wishes and needs, especially since
standardised elements offer the user greater possibilities to
arrange the system according to his wishes. Users
themselves have more and more control over the way
services are being accessed. Various technologies allow
users to access the same service and the user’s specific
context will determine which is the preferred technology.
Wireless and mobile systems are becoming increasingly
important. Developments can only be slowed down by a lack
of radio spectrum, but that is primarily a political issue. Much
is expected, especially from the third and fourth generation
mobile systems (UMTS also indicated as 3G and beyond).
It is expected that in-home data communication networks,
whether or not based on wireless techniques, will play an
increasingly important role within the domestic environment
as well. It will be important to link applications through
networks. There will be a convergence of ICT and household
appliances, which is partly made possible by the increasing
f o re s i g h t 5 ,4 2 0 0 3
12
intelligence in networks, facilitated by a central in-house
server, and appliances.
As far as the man-machine interface is concerned,
experts expect a trend towards increased intelligence,
whereby information and communication interfaces will be
less visible. System interfaces are increasingly being built
into existing appliances (embedded systems) and adapted
to people’s communication habits. Past behaviour will help
determine the choices that are being offered. ICT is
integrated in a natural interface. Image, speech, pointing,
etc. are important elements in this process, along with agent
technologies.
3.4 ICT in 2010
The participants expect PDA-like equipment, as well as
built-in intelligence and communication possibilities in
existing appliances, to play a significant role in household
use. PDAs will serve as a medium for telephony, agenda,
carrier of electronic money and authentication unit for all
kinds of different access systems. In other words, all things
that are convenient to carry around will be incorporated into a
single electronic PDA-like device. The most advanced form is
the incorporation of this type of system in clothing, so-called
wearables. These are clothes with stimulators and sensors,
and smart coats that can, for example, regulate the
temperature. These will be part of the person area network
(PAN or 4 G mobile networks).
Appliances already being used in the house will more and
more be equipped with intelligence. The front door will only
open after identification and authentication. Monitoring,
security and sensing systems will be a part of the living
environment. The heating and lighting units will be remote-
controlled. Various systems will be integrated through home
networks. The alarm clock will send a signal to the water
cooker or coffee machine. Intelligent fridges and washing
machines will be monitored at a distance and if necessary
new software will be downloaded to the machines. Intelligent
toilet bowls will be able to give advice on healthy life styles on
the basis of bio-chemical analysis.
Many of the developments surrounding TV and PC
assume that the difference between the 3ft and 10ft space
will erode, the result of which will be individualised screen
machines. Nevertheless, there are generic developments, for
instance TVs and PCs the size of a watch and separate
developments for the PC and TV. With regard to 3ft space
appliances the experts believe that PCs with communication
functionality will be widely accepted in 2010. IP-telephony,
GroupWare systems, videoconferencing will be standard PC
add-ons. The PC interface will be based more on speech,
visualisation and the ability to share information in real time.
The interface has a multi-functionally layered structure
designed to match the user’s experience. This development
that can be compared to the levels already found in
computer games. The PC will thus become a learning
system adapting itself to the user.
 In terms of the 10ft space, television technology, the
experts predict a trend towards flat and large screens and
screens that suggest depth. Where traditional television is
concerned, it is all about improvement of the display quality,
to as high a level of quality as is possible and the
improvement of the natural character of sound. Needless to
say, TV allows for various online and on-demand services,
received through a so-called multimedia socket.
For the control of modern television sets, things like smart
rooms, where the user’s movements can be analysed and
interpreted (intelligent gesture), and speech recognition are
envisaged. Furthermore, programme preferences are
analysed and used as a basis for suggestions.
3.5 Domestic work and care in 2010
In terms of domestic work, much is expected of agent
technologies, for example an automatically produced
shopping list. The agent technologies can play a role, for
instance, in budget control and in developing an efficient and
effective purchasing policy. Based on the items available
certain recipes may be suggested. The experts do point out,
however, that shopping also has a social side. Children, sick
people and animals can increasingly be cared for from a
distance by using advanced communication systems. It is
already possible to monitor children through remote
observation. As far as health care is concerned, all kinds of
support and tele-care are expected. One can consult one’s
physician from a distance, possibly using videoconferencing
and sensor-aided remote monitoring. The experts see
possibilities in the area of monitoring systems, intelligent
systems for the distribution of medication and so on. Much is
also expected of the use of electronic patient files in
combination with administration. In all these cases, the
technology already exists, but the industry, as yet, does not
seem to be able to organise these types of applications.
In general, we can say that information and
communication services will make it possible to coordinate
domestic services from a distance, but also to outsource
them. Household agenda management is another possible
application, as is home management (managing the
processes in homes). Obviously, the end-user has to be in a
position to configure these kinds of services. At a very small
scale, we are talking about penny-tags (devices designed to
determine the location of things on the basis of miniature
electronics that indicate where certain items are located).
In general it can be concluded that ICT is going to play an
increasingly important role. The traditional distinction
between telephone, television and PC and the underlying
infrastructure is going to blur and that is going to affect
consumer behaviour in general, but it will also affect more
specifically the way people are going to deal with media.
Media are going to be an integral part of people’s behaviour
and will be less controlled by media and content providers.
Some of the technologies, as we mentioned earlier, are
already available, others are at the brink of being introduced
onto the market, while others yet are still in an early R&D
phase. Nevertheless, it is important to see how these trends
can be incorporated into user scenarios, either to assess the
viability of these technologies or to assess the way users are
going to reinvent these technologies and model them to their
own preferences. Before we can integrate technological
forecasting with the scenarios, the first question we have to
answer is what the use of ICT in the domestic environment
will look like in 2010.
4. Scenarios for 2010
To answer the question from the last sentence from section
3.5 we will use a set of scenarios that have been developed
by KPN Research[2] in 2000 (Van der Duin, 2000). Although
the scenarios originally had a time horizon up to 2005,
experience with other scenarios in all kinds of projects for
KPN showed that the basic assumptions and scenario axis
could also be applied to 2010. Below we show how we have
built the scenarios by describing briefly each step in this
building process. This building process is partly based on
Schwartz (1991) and Van der Heijden (1996).
The first step, after formulating the main question for the
scenarios as introduced in the section above, is to compile a
list of possible actors and factors that influence the outcome
of this question. To do this, we can use the information we
have obtained from technological forecasting.
Actors are, for instance, producers of peripheral
equipment, service and content providers, government and
other legislative bodies, etc. Note that this selection does not
include end-users of ICT. When conducting a scenario
analysis, we want to find out what impact external forces
have on the individual user and his or her communication
behaviour. Consequently, the scenarios serve as a way to
look ``outside-in’’, rather than ``inside-out’’, where the user is
being projected in a possible or predicted future.
Relevant factors are technological developments such as
the convergence of technologies, economic developments
such as growing inflation (macro-level), mergers and take-
overs (meso-level) and companies’ distribution strategies
(micro-level), socio-cultural trends such as ageing, etc.
The second step is to come up with a classification of
factors in such a way that a ``scenario framework’’ is created.
We can do this by determining the level of uncertainty for
every trend on the one hand and the impact it has on the
central question. By crossing the two extremes of the two
trends with the highest level of uncertainty and the largest
impact we will produce a coordinate system with four
quadrants (Van der Heijden, 1996).
The third step is filling in the four quadrants in the
scenario. This involves more than merely listing a number of
trends and indicating the direction in which they are heading.
It is important to establish a so-called ``scenario logic’’. This
can be seen as the rationale behind the scenario. Not only
will the scenario describe a path from the present to the
f o re s ig h t 5 , 4 2 0 0 3
13
future, but it will also describe the dynamics of the final
situation. It can be seen as a causal diagram in which the
axes serve as important starting variables on the basis of
which the status and direction of other variables and trends
are determined.
The final step involves the perfection of the scenario’s
stories and a further description of the effects of these stories
on our central question, what the use of ICT in the domestic
environment will look like in 2010.
In the case of the KPN scenarios we ended up with the
following axes (see Figure 3):
& Individual vs collective. The difference between
individualists and collectivists lies in the degree to which
they let their own interests prevail above those of the
group to which they belong. Individualists have a strong
consciousness of self and put their own needs first
whenever possible without giving much thought to the
group’s needs.
Collectivists on the other hand are more conscious of
the people around them, and strive to achieve a
harmonious balance between individual and collective
interests. They feel inextricably involved in broader social
issues, and this is reflected in their interest in what
happens to other people.
& Active vs passive. The difference between active and
passive people lies in the degree to which they explore
and change their environment rather than conform to
external influences. Passive people, on the other hand,
tend to conform to external influences and values. They
simply wait for things to happen and suppress their
internal impulses.
The results of this is the construction of four scenarios for
2010 which are summarised below (Van der Duin et al.,
1999):
(1) Adventure. The ``adventure’’ scenario of 2010 is based
on egocentric fun-lovers that, above all, crave more
excitement, variety and pleasure in their lives. They want
to have a good time with lots of thrills. Life is a fairy tale
and society is the theme park where it is played out.
Everyone is shamelessly selfish and unwilling to conform
Figure 3 Ð Scenario framework
f o re s i g h t 5 ,4 2 0 0 3
14
to established social patterns. They are even less
prepared to make any kind of sacrifice for others.
``Flexibility’’ and ``mobility’’ are the catchwords. Life is all
about keeping on the move and it unfolds against the
background of a booming economy. These are the
``roaring 2000s’’, with economic growth and stock
exchange listings exceeding all conceivable limits. The
globalisation of the economy is taking place at
breakneck speed. Companies consist of dynamic,
independent networks.
(2) Budget. In 2010, the European economy is facing
problems. The economic bubble has burst, resulting in a
period of economic and social decay. Many companies
have gone bankrupt and the housing market has
collapsed. As a result, economic growth is far more
sluggish than it was in the 1990s. People work relatively
hard at highly irregular hours in an attempt to turn the
tide. With hard work, thriftiness and an occasional lucky
break, most people manage to keep their heads above
water. Money is a constant worry. The most striking
aspect of this scenario is people’s extreme price-
consciousness, with everyone attempting to squeeze
the most out of every last penny. In this world, certain
traits are crucial, such as the ability to calculate rapidly
and accurately, to be assertive during negotiations, and
to network successfully. An extensive network of
contacts has enabled people to establish and maintain
a system of mutual support, which has all the features of
an informal economy.
(3) Comfort. The keywords to describe this scenario in 2010
are ``comfort’’ and ``usefulness’’. Its catchwords are
``reduced complexity’’, ``time saving’’ and
``rationalisation’’. After the turn of the century, society
responded to an increasingly complex world by
expressing a collective desire for control and comfort.
Consumers no longer want to choose from a whole
range of options, but want companies and organisations
to provide products and services that are fully tailored to
their needs. The most popular organisations are those
that provide a sound service and do the thinking for their
customers. Resolving day-to-day problems, providing
security, dealing with problems for consumers; these are
the services that rate high on the busy consumer’s list of
priorities. Consumers are extremely demanding and
want to be waited on hand and foot. High quality and
service at affordable prices are key requirements.
(4) Durable. This scenario of 2010 focuses on the quality of
life and is opposed to the idea that progress usually
means ``more’’. People are tired of innovations and have
slotted into a new mindset, giving them more time to
enjoy nature and each other. Success is no longer
measured according to income and possessions, but to
well-being and social behaviour. Rejecting the constant
desire for more has become a valued way of thinking.
 People no longer want to be manipulated by advertising
and promotional campaigns. Consumerism is less
rampant. More and more people feel it is time to
re-examine the consumer society. They no longer want to
be pushed, but want to live life at a slower pace. Peace
and quiet are what counts, not joining in the rat race.
5. Combining technological forecasting with
scenarios
We will combine the results of the forecast regarding
equipment, networks and services with the scenarios so that
we can see to what extent the scenarios enrich technological
forecasting. For each scenario we will briefly describe what
those ICT categories might look like after 2010 and how they
might be used.
5.1 Equipment: TV
Currently many households have a stereo TV with teletext
connected to a VCR or DVD player. Technological
forecasting states that in 2010 there will be households
which will have TVs with flat digital wide screens and built in
set-top boxes. However, this forecast fails to give us any idea
about the (approximate) number of households where this
will be the case, how this TV will be used and which role it will
play in the household. Combing the technological forecasts
with the four scenarios should give us more insight in
possible adoption and use patterns:
(1) Adventure. Since the ``adventure’’ scenario consists of
households (many of them single person households)
that have a very innovative attitude, an interactive digital
TV is indeed a regular phenomenon. People’s homes
are filled with TV screens and some already have TV with
ambient technology-type of services, that is to say that
wherever they are in the house, the screens ``recognize’’
them and immediately start broadcasting their favourite
TV shows or give information regarding these
programmes. People who cannot afford the ambient
technology, have intelligent agents programmed in their
TV set which keep them up to date about shows to
come and provide links to other types of media. TV is no
longer a large, fixed device situated only in people’s
homes, they also watch TV on their mobile devices.
Satellites are very popular and watching the 6 o’clock
tango show broadcast in Argentina is just as normal as
the 8 o’clock news provided by Dutch broadcasters. All
this does not imply that people in this scenario watch TV
all evening, that would be too boring to them. Because
of their busy lives they only watch selectively which also
means that the TV guide follows them and the
``adventurous’’ TV watcher decides which (by an
intelligent agent) pre-selected programmes his TV will
show, making use of all kinds of new interactive and
digital services, such as recording live broadcasts
simultaneously to ensure that the viewer does not miss
a thing.
(2) Budget. Owing to bad economic times people are not
very eager to adopt all kinds of new technology so the
good old TV set is still one of the most important sources
of entertainment in this scenario. Screens have almost
the same size as ten years before and the remote control
has gained some extra intelligence. People are not
prepared to invest a great deal of money in sets with
special features because they consider them to be
simple devices suited merely to transmit TV signals. TV
and VCR/DVD players as yet are not integrated, nor is TV
integrated with other devices such as the PC or
telephone. Because people are mostly busy solving their
own problems they do not have a very broad social and
cultural orientation: national programmes are more
popular than foreign ones. End-users are constantly
making deliberate choices on what to spend money and
they, therefore, only want to pay for those channels that
they watch regularly. There is relatively little demand for
exotic and interactive TV channels. TV is considered
amusement, and a way for people to forget their
everyday worries, at a price they can afford.
(3) Comfort. As people consider all the various
communication and information devices in their busy
households too much of a nuisance, a device has been
developed that combines TV, VCR/DVD and PC. The
result is a kind of central controlling unit that is used not
only for watching TV but also for sending e-mails,
video-mails, shopping, agenda coordination and
domestic services such as regulating the in-house
temperature. The display screen more than ever before
occupies a place at the centre of the household and it
combines many functions of which saving time and
making the daily routine as easy as possible are two of
the most important ones ± more important than
watching television. Just as in the ``adventure’’ scenario
there are TV screens in many places in the house. Most
of them are nicely designed flat screens with easy user
interfaces (such as speech recognition), guaranteeing
up-to-date information tailored to the user’s needs. And,
at last, the VCR/DVD player has become a device that
everybody can control!
(4) Durable. Watching TV is a family affair and parents try to
make sure that their children do not watch too much.
Because many people value other things, such as
having many personal (and local) contacts, adults also
try not to watch too much TV, as that may hinder those
personal contacts. And if they do watch TV they do so in
a very deliberate way: information programmes are the
most popular ones. Many TVs have ``filters’’, i.e. V-chips
that prevent children from seeing pornographic and
violent programmes, etc. An important function of the TV
is to provide background information regarding TV
programmes. Because people watch TV in a
conscientious way, it does not occupy a central place in
f o re s ig h t 5 , 4 2 0 0 3
15
 their homes, but is located somewhere in a corner so
that people who really want to watch have to make an
effort to do so.
5.2 Networks: local loop (telephony)
Nowadays almost every household has a telephone
connection (a copper wire). Technological forecasting
expects that in 2010 there will be a huge competition
between various fixed and mobile infrastructures and
technologies with high capacity, ranging from telephone-
based xDSL, through fibre-optic links for cable to broadband
mobile services (3G and beyond). We will show that these
technologies can be varied based on the four scenarios. For
each scenario we will describe shortly how those networks
and matching services might look after 2010:
(1) Adventure. The competition between fixed and mobile
telephony is won by mobile (3G and beyond). All the
innovative ``adventurous’’ end-users just love 3G and its
services because of its huge bandwidth and flexibility,
which offer a wide range of possibilities regarding all kinds
of information services. 3G has become the dominant
mode of mobile communication (especially for business
people and youngsters) and in the average household we
see a lot of Wireless Local Loop (WLL) or Wireless LAN
techniques. Rather than focusing on the quality of the
services, end-users are very demanding in terms of the
type and amount of services that these technologies allow
them to access. By using a variety of services, brought to
them by all kinds of companies who looking for a market
niche, consumers can distinguish themselves from other
people. Mobile devices have really become a way of life to
which people are almost addicted.
(2) Budget. The development of network technologies is, to a
large extent, determined by economic motives. People do
not feel that mobile has enough added value to warrant
paying more money. As a result the competition between
fixed and mobile is to a large degree decided in favour of
fixed lines. Mobile turned out to be too expensive for
many people and the communication needs did not grow
at the pace they were expected to at the start of the new
millennium. Most people settle for being reachable.
People’s mobility did not grow all that much either, which
meant that there was no great demand for mobile
services. People are happy with their fixed copper lines
and have resisted the operator’s attempts to sell them
new mobile services. They stick to 2 and 2.5G.
(3) Comfort. The need of end-users for easy and high
quality communication connections has resulted in a
situation whereby the competition between fixed and
mobile has ended in a draw. End-users are quite content
with the combination of fixed and mobile communication
and the easy-to-use services that combination makes
possible. The most important criteria for end-users are
high bandwidth and high quality (expressed in better
reachability and less redundancy). They are also willing
f o re s i g h t 5 ,4 2 0 0 3
16
to pay more for that because they value the extra
comfort. Optical fibre has in many places substituted for
the copper wire because of the extra bandwidth that is
needed for all the information services and because of
the fact that people can afford it.
(4) Durable. Fear of radiation has had a negative impact on
mobile communication as compared to fixed networks.
People are trying to balance their digital and physical
communication. In addition, end-users pay a great deal
of attention to the health risk of their communication
device and connection. People are locally oriented, which
means that their mobility has remained roughly at the
same level. As a result mobile communication, already
having to deal with the problem of radiation, grows at a
relatively low rate, if at all. People are trying to balance
their professional and private activities. To avoid traffic
jams and unnecessary travelling, people increasingly
work at home and to do so they need sufficient
bandwidth, not for amusement but for serious work.
5.3 Services: entertainment
Nowadays, entertainment plays an important role in the
diffusion of new products and services, mainly because it
turns out that increasingly the early adopters are young
people (Rogers, 1962) and they value entertainment more
than other aspects such as functionality or user friendliness.
Also, the entertainment industry is growing very fast
(Howkins, 2001). Nevertheless, entertainment, for example,
in the form of computer games or gambling, most of the time
is consumed on stand-alone machines or in a non-interactive
way, although in Korea the so-called PC-Bangs, where
interactive networked games are played by groups of
youngsters, are very popular (Stewart and Park Choi, 2003).
Another development, often described as the ``experience
economy’’ (Pine and Gilmore, 1999) means that
entertainment is not only presented by companies as a
service in itself but that it is also used as a way to sell other
products or services:
(1) Adventure. Because fun is one of the keywords in this
scenario one can imagine that entertainment is of crucial
importance! People are constantly looking for more and
new types of entertainment, such as gaming, to satisfy
their fast-growing appetite for entertainment.
Interactivity, personalisation and multimedia are
necessary conditions and it would seem as though
people cannot get enough. Killer-apps of most new
products and services contain a high amount of
entertainment and people are very fond of games that
they can largely build themselves which means that
these products are to a much larger extent tailor-made.
Games are played to meet new people. Television is
considered a passive and boring medium. Although this
scenario does focus on the egocentric, games are often
played with and against other people; playing games on
your own is considered dull. On the other hand,
 competing with others allows people to stand out
expressing their individuality. People do not play games
just in one place; because the ``need’’ to play games can
come up anywhere, they want to have the possibility to
play games anywhere. This means that it is a common
thing to see people playing interactive games on mobile
devices in the streets and on the train.
(2) Budget. In this scenario entertainment is seen as
something that is synonymous with wasting money. The
only purpose entertainment can serve is to forget the
harsh reality for a few moments and to experience some
old-fashioned happiness. Entertainment ranks lowest as
a motive to buy after value for money and utility. As
entertainment is something of a taboo, not many people
are seen enjoying it in public. Instead, they will do so in
private. People prefer watching a soccer game on a pay-
per-view basis to taking an expensive trip to a stadium.
Games are still being played the old-fashioned way and
Monopoly is still the most popular game (perhaps this
has something to do with the suggestion of being rich
and owning streets and houses).
(3) Comfort. In this scenario entertainment is mainly viewed
from a family perspective. This means that, for instance,
entertaining games should not only be fun to play but
should also have an educational value. Products and
services can have two (or more) functions
simultaneously, which saves time. In this respect it is
important for the entertainment to have a certain level of
quality, not only from an ethical point of view but also in
the sense that entertainment should be more than just
plain fun. Watching a television show should be a nice
family activity just as playing games on a TV set which
has integrated many PC functionalities.
(4) Durable. In the durable scenario, entertainment is
something which one does not enjoy on one’s own but
together with one’s friends, family, school or the
community to which one belongs. Entertainment should
have an educational or cultural value, allowing people to
learn something about the world in which they live.
Entertainment is seen as a way to communicate and
establish contact with other people rather than a
pleasant way to pass the time. Playing games on
modern mobile devices and PCs is not a goal in itself
but is only considered worthwhile when it enhances the
educational and entertainment value.
6. Conclusion and discussion
The main reason to combine technological forecasting and
scenarios is that this combination offers a number of
advantages over the isolated use of the two separate
techniques. These advantages are linked to both techniques.
By including specified technological developments the
scenarios are given more detail. Most scenarios focus on the
use of technology or the attitudes companies adopt with
respect to investment in technology rather than on what the
development of a specific technology will look like. Adding
detailed information concerning possible technological
developments enriches the scenario stories. Many scenarios
only contain a picture of, for instance, society at a particular
point in the future. But it is very important for the scenarios to
be plausible, so that it is also clear how, in this case, society
will develop between the present and that point in the future.
Technological forecasting can serve as a kind of roadmap
for the scenarios.
As much as the scenarios are enriched by the use of
technological forecasting, they in turn acquire greater depth
from the context provided by the scenarios, obtaining a more
specified meaning or goal. Of course, technological
forecasting focuses mainly on technology and not so much
on its use (embodied in products and services) or on the
users themselves. Scenarios can give technological
forecasting a ``face’’ by picturing possible future users and
the way they handle the products. Because technological
forecasting is being supplemented by a set of scenarios, the
technology becomes more real and to a certain extent this
helps prevent the common mistake of making erroneous
predictions. In other words, the forecast acquires a broader
perspective which makes it also more valuable for decision
making.
Scenarios make it easier for decision makers to use
technological forecasting in their decision-making processes.
Technological forecasting focuses exclusively on a single
outcome and often does not assess the risks and
uncertainties surrounding a specific decision. In scenario
analysis it is common to use the concept of ``wind tunnelling’’,
that is to say, to test several decisions, for instance with regard
to the allocation of R&D budgets, product development
projects or corporate strategies, in different scenarios, and it
can be used, for instance, by developers of peripheral
equipment, like Philips or Ericsson. Scenario analysis allows
the robustness of a decision to be tested because a certain
decision can be analysed in a number of scenarios. For
instance, a reduction of investments in innovation would be a
very bad decision in the ``adventure’’ scenario because
consumers value companies that constantly come up with
new products and services. In the ``budget’’ scenario this
decision would yield better results. By assessing various
possible decisions in all the scenarios it becomes clear which
idea is most likely to be successful in the various scenarios
and how uncertain specific decisions might be in the worlds
depicted in possible scenarios. The scenarios can be used as
a tool to assess the risk of decisions and to determine under
what conditions certain decisions can have positive or
negative consequences for society, the business community
as a whole or a specific company. In addition to helping us
gain more insight into possible future developments in various
domains of our society, scenarios or scenario thinking can
help companies cope with uncertainty.
f o re s ig h t 5 , 4 2 0 0 3
17
 Furthermore, by combining scenarios for different related
technologies, such as peripheral equipment, networks and
entertainment services we can create a more coherent and
consistent picture of possible futures and indicate the
interdependencies between the various domains. Combined
with ``wind tunnelling’’, technological forecasting together with
scenarios make a powerful decision-making tool. By applying
this tool to companies involved in media and communication
we are able to show that the scenarios can have different
consequences for those companies involved, not only in
terms of their strategy and the competences they need to
carry out that strategy but also with regard to the relationship
to each other. For instance, in the ``adventure’’ scenario the
strategy of ``product leadership’’ is important for every
company but for a content provider that means renewing its
content as often as possible while a broadcasting company
constantly has to produce new TV shows, combining all the
various forms of content in an exciting and intelligent way. The
relationship between them will become more competitive
because they both will have enough opportunities to choose
suppliers. As a result, they have to look for new ways to work
together which probably mean that linear concepts with the
kind of steady relationships expressed in ``value chains’’ are
no longer sufficient.
In the ``comfort’’ scenario this will be different. Companies
will strive to deliver as much comfort as possible to their
customers and try to offer one-stop-shopping, offering tailor-
made products and services. For broadcasting companies
this will mean that they must focus not only on broadcasting
TV programmes, but they also have to try to be active in
other fields such as the Internet. For content providers it will
mean that the content they offer should have a more mixed-
media character, in other words their content must be
accessible using various types of media. As far as
relationships are concerned, the ``comfort’’ scenario will force
companies to cooperate very closely to make one-stop-
shopping possible. This close cooperation might even result
in big mergers and acquisitions.
Of course, the use of scenarios is not without its risks,
which is why we chose to combine it with technology
forecasting. Although many scenario projects are successful
(see section 2.2), there are also many that fail. This can, for
instance, be due to a lack of diversity with regard to the input.
In those cases scenarios do not provide additional or new
information. Another problem can be a lack of involvement
on the part of clients who may be disinclined to use the
scenarios because they feel the scenarios are insufficiently
relevant to their business. With regard to the construction of
(corporate) strategies, the ``wind tunnelling’’ exercise may
result in a very broadly formulated strategy (``we do
everything for everybody for the lowest price and the highest
quality’’) which lacks the focus required to be really
successful in business (Porter, 1996). It also fails to take into
account that companies operate and formulate their strategy
f o re s i g h t 5 ,4 2 0 0 3
18
in a situation of economic scarcity, which means that they do
not have the economic and organisational resources to carry
out those broad and generalised strategies.
Notes
1 In this article we use the term ``futures research’’. Other terms for
looking at the future include: foresight, forecasting or futures
studies. We prefer to use the term futures research because of its
comprehensive character. Foresight refers often only to looking at
the future as carried out by and for governments; forecasting in
general refers to just predictive methods of looking at the future;
and futures studies is often found in relation to specific topics such
as sustainability and green politics.
2 KPN Research was, until 2003, the R&D organisation of KPN, the
Dutch incumbent telecom operator. Currently it is a department of
TNO, a Dutch research institute, and is called TNO Telecom.
References
Albright, R. (2002), ``What can past technology forecast tell us about the
future?’’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 69,
pp. 443-64.
Anderson, B., Gale, C., Gower, A., France, E., Jones, M., Lacohee, H.,
McWilliam, A., Tracey, K. and Trimby, M. (2002), ``Digital living ±
people centred innovation and strategy’’, BT Technology Journal,
Vol. 20 No. 2, pp. 11-29.
Ascher, W. (1978), Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-makers and
Planners, The John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD.
Biocca, F. and Levy, M. (Eds) (1995), Communication in the Age of
Virtual Reality, Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ.
Bouwman, H., Hes, R., La Porte, T.M. and Westerveld, J.R. (2000), ICT in
huis. De Magnetron als informatiebron. Trends in Informatie- en
communicatietechnologie in de huiselijke omgeving in het jaar
2010. Rapport aan: SCP, Uitgave, SCP, Den Haag,
Rapportnummer 64, 117 pp.
Brown, J.S. and Duguid, P. (2000), The Social Life of Information,
Harvard Business School, Boston, MA.
Coates, V., Fahrooque, M., Klavans, R., Lapid, K., Linstone, H., Pistorius, C.
and Porter, A. (2001), ``On the future of technological forecasting’’,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 67, pp. 1-17.
Dertouzous, M. (1997), What Will Be. How the New World of Information
Will Change Our Lives, Harper Edge, San Francisco, CA.
Dertouzous, M. (2001), The Unfinished Revolution. Human Centred
Computers and What They Can Do for Us, HarperCollins,
New York, NY.
Doherty, S. and Miller, E. (2000), ``A computerized household activity
scheduling survey’’, Transportation, Vol. 27, pp. 75-97.
Eames, M., Berkhout, F., Hertin, J. and Hawkins, R. (2000), E-topia?
Contextual Scenarios for Digital Futures, SPRU-Science and
Technology Policy Research, 8 December.
Flichy, P. (1995), Dynamic of Modern Communication. The Shaping and
Impact of New Communication Technologies, Sage, London.
Fowles, J. (Ed.) (1978), Handbook of Futures Research, Greenwood
Press, Westport, CT.
Galtung, J. (2003), ``What did the experts predict?’’, Futures, Vol. 35,
pp. 123-245.
Godet, M. (2000), ``The art of scenario and strategic planning: tools and
pitfalls’’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 65,
pp. 3-22.
Howkins, J. (2001), The Creative Economy. How People make Money
from Ideas, Penguin Books, London.
Kleiner, A. (1996), The Age of Heretics. Heroes, Outlaws and the
Forerunners of Corporate Change, Doubleday, New York, NY.
Kurzweil, R. (1999), The Age of Spiritual Machines, Viking Penguin, New
York, NY.
May, G. (1996), The Future Is Ours. Foreseeing, Managing and Creating
the Future, Adamantine Press, London.
Masini, E.B. (2002), ``New challenges for future studies’’, Futures, No. 33,
pp. 637-47.
Masini, E.B. and Vasquez, J.M. (2000), ``Scenarios as seen from a
human and social perspective’’, Technological Forecasting and
Social Change, Vol. 65, pp. 49-66.
Miles, I., Keenan, M. and Kaivo-Oja, J. (2002), Handbook of Knowledge
Society Foresight, Prepared by PREST and FFRC for the
European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working
Conditions, October, PREST/FFRC.
Pine, J.A. II and Gilmore, J. (1999), Experience Economy: Work is a
Theatre and Every Business a Stage, Harvard Business School
Press, Cambridge, MA.
Porter, A.L., Roper, A.T., Mason, T.W., Rosini, F.A. and Banks, J. (1991),
Forecasting and Management of Technology, John Wiley & Sons,
New York, NY.
Porter, M. (1996), ``What is strategy?’’, Harvard Business Review,
November-December, pp. 61-78.
Ringland, G. (1998), Scenario Planning. Managing for the Future,
John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.
Rogers, E.M (1962), The Diffusion of Innovation, The Free Press,
New York, NY.
Schwartz, P. (1991), The Art of the Long View, John Wiley & Sons,
New York, NY.
Stewart, K. and Park Choi, H. (2003), PC-Bang (Room) Culture. A Study
of Korean College Students’ Private and Public Use of Computers
and the Internet, No. 11, TIC.
Twiss, B.C. (1992), Forecasting for Technologists and Engineers,
Peter Petegrinus, London.
Van der Duin, P. (2000), Destination 2005. Corporate Scenarios for KPN.
Scenario and Strategy Planning, Vol. 2 No. 1, April/May, pp. 22-5.
Van der Duin, P., Drop, R. and Kloosterhof, A. (2001), The World of
Future Studies according to KPN Research, Internal report KPN
Research.
Van der Duin, P., Kok, R.P. and Kandelaars, P. (2000), Just Imagine. A
Marriage between Forecasting and Scenario Thinking. Scenarios
and Strategy Planning, No. 4, October/November, pp. 8-11.
Van der Duin, P., Van der Loo, H., Stavleu, H. and Dijkhuis, J. (1999),
Destination 2005: Corporate Scenarios for 2005, Internal KPN
Research Report.
Van der Heijden, K. (1996), Scenarios. The Art of Strategic Conversation,
John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.
Van Doorn, J.J. and Van Vught, F.A. (1978), Nederland op zoek naar zijn
toekomst, Uitgeverij Het Spectrum/Intermediair, Antwerpen/
Amsterdam.
Wilson, I. (2000), ``From scenario thinking to strategic action’’,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 65, pp. 23-9.
Further reading
De Hart, J. (1995), Tijdopnamen, Sociale en Culturele Studies, Vol. 22,
SCP, Rijswijk.
De Weerd, W. and Rietsma, J. (1996), Ouderen en techniek. IGT rapport/
WW/JR/96080, Instituut voor Gerontechnologie, TU Eindhoven,
Eindhoven, February.
Hawkins, D.G. (1995), ``Virtual reality and passive simulators: the future
of fun’’, in Biocca, F. and Levy, M. (Eds), Communication in the
Age of Virtual Reality, Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ.
Hawley, M., Poor, R.D. and Tuteja, M. (1997), ``Things that think’’,
Personal Technologies, Vol. 1, pp. 13-20.
Hulsink, W. (1999), Privatisation and Liberalisation in European
Telecommunications: Comparing Britain, The Netherlands and
France, Routledge, London/New York, NY.
Mann, S. (1997), ``Smart clothing: the wearable computer and
wearcam’’, Personal Technologies, Vol. 1, pp. 21-7.
Mansell, R. and Silverstone, R. (Eds) (1996), Communication by Design.
The Politics of Information and Communication Technologies,
Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Martino, J.P. (1978), ``Technological forecasting’’, in Fowles, J. (Ed.),
Handbook of Futures Research, Greenwood Press, London.
Miles, I. and Gershuny, J. (1990), ``The social economics of IT’’, in
Finnegan, R. et al. (Eds), Information Technology, Social Issues,
Hodder & Stoughton Educational, London, p. 209.
Miles, I., Cawson, A. and Haddon, L. (1994), ``The shape of things to
consume’’, in Silverstone, R. and Hirsch, E. (Eds), Consuming
Technologies, Media and Information in Domestic Spaces,
Routledge, London.
MuÈller, M.L. and Schement, J.R. (1996), ``Universal service from the
bottom up; a study of telephone penetration in Camden, New
Jersey’’, The Information Society, Vol. 12, p. 273.
Nugent, W. (1991), ``Virtual reality: advanced imaging special effects let
you roam in cyberspace’’, Journal of American Society for
Information Science, September, pp. 609-17.
Schement, J.R., Belinfante, A. and Povich, L. (1994), ``Telephone
penetration 1984-1994’’, Proceedings of the 22nd Annual
Telecommunications Policy Research Conference, Solomon’s
Island, Maryland, October.
Schnaars, S.P. (1989), Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of
Rapid Technological Change, Free Press, New York, NY.
Silverstone, R. (1994), ``Domesticating the revolution: information and
communication technologies and everyday life’’, in Mansell, R.
(Ed.), Management of Information and Communication
Technologies, Aslib, London, p. 221.
Silverstone, R. and Haddon, L. (1996), ``Design and the domestication of
information and communication technologies: technical change
and everyday life’’, in Mansell, R. and Silverstone, R. (1996) (Eds),
Communication by Design. The Politics of Information and
Communication Technologies, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Silverstone, R. and Hirsch, E. (Eds) (1992), Consuming Technologies.
Media and Information in Domestic Spaces, Routledge, London.
Terreehorst, P. (1997), Langzame stad, snelle mensen, van Gennep,
Amsterdam.
Van de Wijngaert, L. (1999), Matching Media. Information Need and New
Media Choice, Telematica Instituut, Enschede.
Van Reisen, E. (1997), ``Ruim baan door telewerken’’ (in Dutch),
Nederlandse Geografische Studies, Vol. 226.
f o re s ig h t 5 , 4 2 0 0 3
19