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June 2009
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ISBN: 9780101759021
Contents
Foreword by the Prime Minister 3
Executive Summary 5
Chapter 1 Introduction 17
Chapter 2 Context: The Global Security Outlook Since March 2008 19
Chapter 3 The UK Government’s Approach to National Security:
guiding principles and the Strategic Framework 27
Chapter 4 The UK Government’s Approach to National Security:
interests, planning assumptions and organisation 37
Chapter 5 UK National Security Framework – Tackling the drivers
of insecurity 49
Global trends – the world economy, technology, and demography 49
Climate change 51
Competition for energy 54
Poverty, inequality and poor governance 59
Ideologies and beliefs 61
Chapter 6 UK National Security Framework – Addressing the Threat Actors 65
State-led threats to the UK 65
Global instability and conflict, and failed and fragile states 69
Terrorists & Terrorism 75
Trans-national organised crime 82
Civil Emergencies 87
Chapter 7 UK National Security Framework – Action in the Threat Domains 93
Nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction 94
Maritime Security 99
Cyber Security 102
Space 104
Public Opinion, culture and information 105
Internationalism: Global responses to global problems 106
Chapter 8 Conclusion 111
1
Foreword by the Prime Minister
The National Security Strategy provides a comprehensive basis
for planning and delivering the most important responsibility
of Government – protecting our country and our people.
The United Kingdom no longer faces the sort of fundamental
threat to our way of life posed by both the Soviet Union and
fascism at different times in the last century. As an outward
facing nation, we are well placed to take advantage of the
opportunities of the new global age.
But recent events have brought home to us how, in this global age, instability anywhere
in the world can affect our interests and ultimately our security more quickly and in more
fundamental ways than ever before. So we need global responses to global problems
– whether we are facing up to the challenge of a global banking crisis, international
terrorism, or pandemics. The United Kingdom has been at the forefront of developing
these global responses, including at the London Summit in April where decisive British
leadership helped stabilise the world economy and frame a new set of global rules for
the new age.
We also need a strong national basis for our security and prosperity, linking our action
in the international sphere to our action at home. Last March, we set out, for the first
time, a National Security Strategy for the United Kingdom, bringing together the many
important strands of work which Government, its agencies, our world class Armed Forces
and many others carry out to keep us safe and protect our vital interests. I believe this was
an important improvement, but I recognised then that it was a first step in the process
rather than the last word. Therefore we committed to updating the strategy this year.
This update sets out:
●● what we have achieved in the past year;
●● how we have continued to strengthen our approach;
●● our assessment of the challenges ahead; and
●● our response to those challenges – from terrorism and instability in Afghanistan and
Pakistan, to nuclear security, to energy security and climate change, to pandemics, to
failing states and the challenges of strengthening global security through
development.
This report describes what the United Kingdom is doing across the full range of national
security risks. It contains a series of detailed proposals for international reform, together
with realistic plans to deliver them. It shows how our approach to national security is
internationalist, not isolationist; active, not passive; and agile and flexible.
Our approach means we are responsive to new challenges like cyber security. Seizing the
benefits of new technology is vital for our national prosperity. But hostile states, terrorists,
and criminals can all potentially use cyber space to undermine our interests. This could
be at the national level – for example through attacks on our essential infrastructure. But
3
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
security threats in cyber space also threaten the interests of businesses and individuals.
In the past, Governments thought about national security as being about protecting
the state and its interests. This remains important, but the nature of the risks we face in
today’s world means our approach to national security must be focused just as much on
protecting individual citizens and businesses. So today, alongside this strategy update,
we are publishing the United Kingdom’s first national strategy for cyber security, to help
people make the most of the benefits of Digital Britain in a safe and secure way.
Our National Security Strategy – and the hard, often dangerous work our dedicated
Armed Forces and others do in putting it into practice – is grounded in core British values
of fair play, human rights, openness, individual liberty, accountable Government and the
rule of law, because we cannot protect our country and our way of life unless we do so
in a way that clearly exemplifies and protects those values.
4
Executive Summary
The National Security Strategy UK and our key allies. Over the past two
of the United Kingdom decades, the opening up of world markets
and the technological advances in
1. Providing security for the nation,
communications have delivered significant
safeguarding our citizens and our way of
benefits to the UK with wider choices of
life, remains the most important
goods and services, considerable increases
responsibility of government.
in capital flows and trade opportunities,
2. Fulfilling this responsibility requires a and internationally, increased productivity
strategic and comprehensive approach. and millions lifted out of poverty.
That is the purpose of the National Security
5. But this increasingly complex and
Strategy of the United Kingdom, published
unpredictable international landscape has
for the first time last year, under the title
also provoked new security challenges.
Security in an Interdependent World.
These challenges have transformed our
At that time, the Government recognised
way of understanding national security,
that the fast changing nature of the
away from the traditional focus of threats
security challenges we faced required an
to the state and its interests from other
ongoing evolution and adaptation of our
states. These are still important. But over
approach, as well as a dynamic and hard-
the past twenty years, the focus has shifted
headed assessment of the strategic threats
to a diverse but interconnected set of
faced by the UK. For these reasons, as well
threats and risks to the UK and our
as to provide a progress report on the
citizens, both directly and through wider
national security commitments already
international instability. These include
made, the Government committed to
international terrorism, weapons of mass
presenting regular updates of the Strategy
destruction, conflicts and failed states,
to Parliament and the public. This paper,
pandemics and trans-national crime. The
Security for the Next Generation, is the first
scope of the National Security Strategy of
such update.
the United Kingdom therefore reflects the
The strategic context broader demands of the global age.
3. In the modern era, governments must 6. Over the past year, the banking crisis and
adapt their approach to national security to the ensuing synchronised global economic
reflect the way in which our understanding downturn has shaken confidence in the
of it has changed. There have been rapid rapid process of globalisation and increasing
and profound changes to the international interdependence seen over the past twenty
landscape, including the security years. Economic downturns inevitably lead to
landscape, since the end of the Cold War. a cyclical slowdown in cross-border economic
Much of this has been positive. The UK no activities such as trade and foreign direct
longer faces an existential threat from a investment. But the magnitude of the current
hostile, state-backed ideology with the crisis and its rapid transmission across
capacity to destroy our way of life. borders raises the risk that there will be a
change in attitudes towards globalisation,
4. No state directly threatens the UK at
and a less permissive environment may result
present. Nor is there any sustained global
going forwards. Regrettably, protectionist
challenge to the liberal, market-oriented
measures have already been taken in some
vision of a free society championed by the
countries. The Government firmly believes
5
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
that open international markets for products 9. The threat from international terrorism
and services will maximise welfare for all to the UK and our interests overseas
countries. We are working with our partners remains severe, and although significant
to mitigate the risks to globalisation in progress has been made in weakening the
forums such as the World Trade Organisation capability of international terrorist
(WTO), the European Union (EU), and the networks, continuing serious terrorist
Group of Twenty (G20) Finance Ministers and attacks across the globe show the ongoing
Central Bank Governors. potency of this threat. There also remains a
threat to the UK from small, dissident Irish
7. The truly global nature of the crisis has
republican groups opposed to the political
emphasised the integration and
settlement endorsed by the people of
interdependence of all countries into the
Northern Ireland.
world economy. This has demonstrated the
need for policy responses coordinated 10. South Asia continues to be a region of
across a wide range of countries. The crucial security concern to the UK. Of the six
prominent role the G20, made up of both major sources of threat identified in this
advanced and emerging economies, has strategy, Afghanistan and Pakistan are
played is a direct consequence of this. relevant to at least four: terrorism, conflict,
trans-national crime and, because Pakistan
8. Prosperity and financial stability are
is a nuclear state, weapons of mass
critical for security and so we have
destruction. The stability of Pakistan and
undertaken in-depth analysis to better
Afghanistan are interlinked. The past year
understand the potential implications of
has seen a significant shift in the patterns of
the economic downturn for our national
instability in the region. The Taliban
security. Our conclusion is that the crisis has
insurgency in Pakistan has reached new
not fundamentally altered our assessment
levels of intensity and violence, with a sharp
of key security threats. That is not to say
increase in attacks beyond the border
that it has had no impact. The downturn
region. Equally significant has been the
has increased the risk that fragile states and
response of the Government of Pakistan,
regions become more fragile, and the risk
which has engaged in major military
that poverty acts as a driver of insecurity at
operations against the Taliban. Although
a global level. And whilst there has been
these have weakened the Taliban, the
welcome progress, including at the London
consequential internal displacement of
Summit, it is important that we continue to
millions of ordinary Pakistanis is a
commit to addressing global risks arising
multifaceted security concern in itself.
from climate change and other drivers. We
The UK has committed £22 million to the
must also take decisive action to make sure
provision of humanitarian aid in response.
that the multilateral commitment necessary
to tackle these security challenges does not 11. It has become increasingly clear that
falter as countries seek to recover from the a regional approach is necessary if the
downturn. Most importantly, the economic international community is to find
downturn has provided new impetus for enduring solutions to the difficulties of
vital reform of the international rules-based both Afghanistan and Pakistan; this is
system, and the Government is committed reflected in both the UK’s joint policy in
to leading this crucial process. Afghanistan and Pakistan (published in
April)1 and the approach being adopted by
the United States.
1 HM Government (April 2009) UK Policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan: The way forward
http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/reports/afghanistan_pakistan.aspx
6
Executive Summary
12. The international community has also ●● Our guiding principles: the UK’s
needed to work together to tackle threats approach to national security is rooted
as diverse as the attempts by North Korea in our core values. These include human
and Iran to acquire nuclear weapons rights, the rule of law, legitimate and
capabilities, and to combat a potentially accountable government, justice,
very serious outbreak of pandemic ‘flu. freedom, tolerance and opportunity for
all. We will be hard-headed about the
13. Across many of these challenges there
risks, our aims and capabilities, and will
has been a welcome impetus from the new
work with partners at home and abroad
United States Administration. The United
wherever possible.
States continues to provide the largest
share of the NATO led presence to stabilise ●● Our strategic framework: our
Afghanistan, and committed additional comprehensive, strategic approach
troops to the country in February 2009. means:
The new Administration has worked hard
–– we will tackle national security
to build strong alliances with partners
challenges at source by identifying
across the globe and use its position as the
why there are challenges to national
sole world superpower constructively. This
security – the drivers – and what we
‘smart power’ concept has seen a fresh
can do to mitigate these;
commitment to the global international
framework, human rights, in taking a –– we will also tackle who or what is
strong stand against torture, and the threatening UK interests and citizens
importance of international development – the threat actors – and frame the
for both global prosperity and stability. The policy response appropriately;
United States has made a fresh attempt to
make vital progress in the Middle East, and –– we will ensure we have the
has provided new leadership on climate capabilities to tackle security threats
change, working with the UK and other no matter how they arise – the
partners. various means or domains in which
threats can manifest themselves.
14. The UK will continue to take a leading These go beyond the traditional
approach in multilateral responses to key military domains of land, sea and air,
issues, building on the success of the G20 to include weapons of mass
Presidency and our ongoing central role in destruction, and the increasing
driving international progress on climate importance of cyberspace; and
change.
–– our response will draw on a wide
National Security – range of better integrated
The Government’s approach capabilities – including our Armed
Forces, law enforcement, security
15. The National Security Strategy of the
and intelligence agencies, diplomatic
United Kingdom is designed to meet the
capabilities, and international
challenges posed by this strategic context.
development activity.
It includes:
●● Our position in the world and our
●● Our vision of national security: our
interests: the UK is an open, pluralist
vision is to protect the UK and its
democracy based on the rule of law. It is
interests in order to enable its people to
historically internationalist in outlook
go about their lives freely and with
and is a hub for global activities. We are
confidence.
7
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
a key part of critical alliances like the Global trends – the economy,
North Atlantic Treaty Organisation technology, demography and
(NATO) and the EU, as well as a migration
permanent member of the United
17. Global trends impact upon and define
Nations Security Council. International
the strategic context within which we work
security cannot therefore be separated
to protect our citizens and interests. Key
from domestic security and the UK has
global developments impact more quickly
genuinely worldwide interests. All of
and more profoundly on the UK than ever
these have implications for our national
before. As we have seen over the past year,
security outlook.
trends in the global economy can rapidly
●● Our planning assumptions for and dramatically affect the whole world.
national security activity: to plan our Technology, and particularly the growth of
national security responses effectively the Internet, has changed the nature of
we must make robust, hard-headed interaction between and within countries
assumptions about the threats we face. and regions: the barriers to communication
Security for the Next Generation brings and commerce globally have been
together, for the first time, these dramatically reduced. Migration trends will
assumptions in one place. They include continue to be affected by global
assumptions around all of the drivers, economic inequality and other factors,
threat actors, and domains outlined in such as climate change. While we have
our strategic framework. benefited from globalisation, it has also
created a series of challenges to which the
●● How we are organised: the disparate
Government’s response is hard-headed in
nature of the threats we face requires
its commitment; thorough in its analysis;
an integrated and flexible response.
and internationalist in its approach.
Security for the Next Generation also
outlines where in Government the lead Climate change
responsibility for tackling each national 18. Climate change will increasingly be a
security threat or driver is held. We have wide-ranging driver of global insecurity. It
strengthened the role of expert external acts as a threat-multiplier, exacerbating
advice through the National Security weakness and tensions around the world.
Forum and are enhancing Parliamentary It can be expected to worsen poverty, have
accountability through a new Joint a significant impact on global migration
Committee on the National Security patterns, and risk tipping fragile states into
Strategy. instability, conflict and state failure. From a
security perspective, it is important to act
Tackling the drivers of insecurity now to reduce the scale of climate change
16. The Strategy outlines how we are by mitigation, such as emissions reduction,
tackling those factors which provoke and by being able to adapt to climate
challenges to our national security, what change that is now already unavoidable.
we have done to address these, and our The Government is determined to play a
future plans. leading role and, over the past year, the
Climate Change Act has come into force,
setting a legally binding target to reduce
the UK’s emissions by at least 80 per cent
by 2050, from 1990 levels, and introducing
the world’s first carbon budgets.
8
Executive Summary
19. The coming six months are a critical December 2008, the UK secured wide
window of opportunity. The UK has already international agreement for measures to
led the way multilaterally in securing EU enhance oil market transparency and
agreement to reduce emissions by 20 per reduce price volatility. We will look to
cent by 2020. It is vital that the world develop this work further over the coming
reaches an ambitious global deal on months, including calling for greater, more
climate change in the multilateral rapid progress on work coming out of the
Copenhagen negotiations in December London Energy Meeting.
2009. The Government places the highest
21. The Government’s National Strategy
priority on these talks and will publish its
for Climate and Energy will be published
priorities for negotiations shortly. The
shortly and will set out more clearly the
forthcoming National Strategy for Climate
Government’s strategic role in ensuring
and Energy will set out a comprehensive
energy supply in a dynamic market in the
set of policies to meet the UK’s carbon
context of tackling climate change.
budgets and to cut emissions by more than
a third by 2020. The Government will also Poverty, inequality and poor
shortly publish a paper on International
governance
Development, Building Our Common
22. Over one billion people live on less
Future, which will include plans to support
than $1.25 a day3. Poverty, inequality and
developing countries to prepare for the
poor governance can exacerbate the
impacts of climate change by building their
impact of violent conflict, organised crime,
resilience and adaptive capabilities.
and terrorism, among other factors, and
Competition for energy can inhibit an effective response to these
20. Global energy demand, on the basis of threats. This means that vulnerable, fragile
governments’ existing policies, is forecast states and systemic global poverty have
to increase by around 45 per cent between implications for UK national security,
2006 and 20302. Internationally, whether manifested in the form of illegal
competition for energy and other resources weapons smuggling by organised
can act as a driver of insecurity in a criminals, or the threat from terrorism.
number of ways: through fostering 23. The UK is a world leader in
increased state-led competition for international development. The level of
resources; through increasing the Overseas Development Aid as a proportion
economic and political leverage of of national income has risen steadily from
producer states; and through tension 0.36 per cent in 2007 to 0.43 per cent in
arising from exploitation of resources as a 2008, rising towards the 0.7 per cent target
source of internal instability. The by 20134. Tackling poverty is essential for
Government recognises the importance of global security, as well as being a
tackling these issues. For example, over the worthwhile investment in its own terms. In
past year we have worked with countries line with our commitment to tackling
like Nigeria to help tackle the role that security challenges early, the Department
tensions linked to energy exploitation play for International Development (DFID) is
in instability and conflict in the Delta, and, looking at ways to increase development
at the London Energy Meeting in
2 International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2008: this is according to the IEA’s reference scenario,
taking account of all policy measures introduced by Governments at the time of publication.
3 World Bank (2007) Global Economic Prospects
4 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Development Assistance Committee
(March 2009) Overseas Development Aid Report.
9
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
assistance to fragile states and regions premature to judge that a nuclear threat to
where links between insecurity, poverty and our national security will not arise over the
conflict are strongest. longer term. As a result, a minimum
strategic deterrent capability is likely to
Ideologies and beliefs remain a necessary element of our national
24. Ideology has long been recognised as security for the foreseeable future.
a factor that can influence security threats.
For much of the twentieth century the UK 28. Instead of taking offensive military
faced serious threats from potent, state action, a hostile state may be more likely to
backed ideologies, first Nazism, and later seek to threaten our way of life by non-
communism. military means, for example, by disrupting
or denying access to critical services, such
25. In the modern age, ideology can still as energy supply, causing sudden or
provoke unrest within and across borders, malicious damage to our economic
and our strategy recognises ideology as a infrastructure, or sponsoring terrorism in
driver of instability. It is a particularly the UK or against UK interests overseas.
important driver of both international and The threats we face are diversifying.
domestic terrorism. That is why the
Government is committed to promoting our 29. The Government will maintain a broad
values of justice, tolerance and the rule of range of military, intelligence, diplomatic
law at home and abroad, and challenging and other capabilities to ensure that we
those who, for ideological reasons, promote are well placed to counter any future state
extremist views which can incite criminal and led threats, wherever and however they
violent activity, whether they are for religious, manifest themselves. As a result of the
ethnic, nationalistic or other reasons. strategic approach taken in this strategy
we will strengthen, in particular, the
Addressing the threat actors mechanisms for collective analysis and
decision taking across government to
26. As well as addressing these drivers of
integrate further our response to the
instability, in the National Security Strategy
changing nature of non-military state-led
the Government has developed a
threats.
comprehensive view of potential national
security threats and who or what can pose Global instability and conflict, and
such threats. These comprise a mixture of
failed and fragile states
human and natural factors, as well as
activity by state and non-state actors. It is 30. It is not just competent states with
important to tackle all relevant threats. malign intent that can threaten the UK and
our allies. Threats can emerge from failing
State-led threats to the UK and fragile states, which provide
27. While it remains our assessment that uncontrolled spaces in which terrorism and
no state has both the intent and capability organised crime may flourish, such as
to threaten the UK militarily, history has occurred in the past when Al Qa’ida grew
shown how difficult it can be to predict the under the Taliban regime. They can also
nature of conflict and so we cannot rule allow the transition of terrorist groups into
out the re-emergence of such a threat in larger and more ambitious insurgent
the future. Given the continuing risk posed organisations and cause significant internal
by proliferation and the certainty that a population displacement and migration.
number of other countries will retain 31. Our response has to be rooted in
substantial nuclear arsenals, it would be helping states and the societies within
10
Executive Summary
them become more secure, with sound 33. There is no single source of terrorism
infrastructure, capable and responsive and we must be alert and ready to respond
government, and the rule of law. For to terrorism in whatever form it takes.
example, the UK-led joint military-civilian Within Northern Ireland the Government
Provincial Reconstruction team in Helmand, continues to work with local political
which has doubled the number of leaders to strengthen the political and
deployed civilian experts in the past year, is democratic processes, and empower the
focused on building Afghan capacity across Executive further through the planned
roads, power, local governance, policing devolution of policing and justice.
and informal justice systems. The
34. Currently, Al Qa’ida and its affiliates
Government’s enhanced Stabilisation Unit5
remain the pre-eminent threat to the UK
is facilitating the planning and delivery of
and our allies. But Al Qa’ida is not winning
this in a range of key target countries,
and may not survive in its current form.
through both bilateral and multilateral
The Government’s response to the threat
cooperation. By the end of 2009 we will
from international terrorism, the CONTEST
have established a one thousand strong UK
strategy6, was revised in March this year
civilian standby capability from which to
and is regarded as one of the most
deploy in support of stabilisation and
comprehensive and effective responses to
conflict prevention in priority areas.
terrorism anywhere in the world. It has
Afghanistan and Pakistan remain critical.
greatly improved our ability to address the
The Government’s strategy for this region,
underlying causes of violent extremism,
published in April, set out clearly how we
detect and disrupt terrorist networks,
are supporting the development of sound
protect our people and the structures
government and a strong society.
which underpin their daily lives, and to
Terrorism manage the consequences of attacks
32. Terrorism remains a constant and direct should they happen in the future.
threat to the UK and our people. Since the Trans-national Organised Crime
publication of Security in an Interdependent
35. The estimated global cost of organised
World, there have been three deaths within
crime stands at approximately one trillion
the UK directly caused by terrorist activity.
pounds.7 Within the UK, the Government
These were the actions of small groups of
estimates that over £20 billion of social
dissident Irish republicans, rather than
and economic harm occurs as a result of
international terrorism inspired by Al Qa’ida
serious organised crime. Our response has
and its affiliates. However, international
delivered a number of important successes.
terrorism continued to be a threat. There
In the past year, for example, we have seen
were major attacks in a number of
a record increase in the number of assets
countries, notably in India and Pakistan, and
recovered from serious organised crime
Al Qa’ida inspired terrorism is believed to
networks, over 85 tonnes of cocaine has
have been responsible for the murder of a
been intercepted and new evidence
British citizen in Mali.
suggests there has been a drop in street
level purity of cocaine.8
5 The tri-departmental (FCO, DFID, MoD) organisation established in 2004 to help improve the UK’s ability to
support countries emerging from conflict.
6 HM Government (March 2009) The United Kingdom’s Strategy for Countering International Terrorism.
http://security.homeoffice.gov.uk/news-publications/publication-search/general/HO_Contest_strategy.pdf
7 World Federation of UN Associations (2007) State of the Future Report
8 Serious Organised Crime Agency 2008/2009 performance figures.
11
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
36. But we must strengthen our approach those groups who may pose threats. But
further and recognise more strongly the we also need to be able to act in all of the
key international dimension to serious domains in which threats can become
organised crime. The Home Office will apparent. In the modern age, these
shortly publish the results of a review of domains are evolving rapidly and so our
serious organised crime. This review will response, as elsewhere, needs to be
overhaul our international organised crime effective, fast, coordinated and adaptable.
strategy, through strengthened governance Security for the Next Generation therefore
and greater interlinking of responsibility contains new analysis and new responses
between the activities of the Serious in respect of a number of important
Organised Crime Agency and the domains of security threat and response
Government’s overseas network. activity.
12
Executive Summary
10 Joint report by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and the Department for Culture, Media and
Sport (16 June 2009) The Digital Britain Report.
http://www.culture.gov.uk/what_we_do/broadcasting/6216.aspx
13
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
14
Executive Summary
cannot be tackled in isolation. Global 57. Security for the Next Generation
problems demand global responses. develops further the UK’s ground-breaking,
comprehensive approach to tackling
56. Delivering the Strategy requires a
security threats, and to understanding why
cross-Governmental approach. The
they exist, who poses them, and how and
National Security, International Relations
where they can arise. It is a strategic
and Development Committee (NSID),11
framework for prioritising the
which includes a wide range of Ministers
Government’s national security activity in
and the heads of key security agencies, will
the years ahead, and how we organise that
oversee implementation of this Strategy.
activity, in partnership at home and
NSID takes advice from external experts,
abroad, to deliver our response.
including the National Security Forum.
11 http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/secretariats/committees/nsid.aspx
15
16
Chapter 1
Introduction
1.1 Providing security for the nation – greater distances. Perhaps even more
safeguarding our citizens and our way of importantly, the speed at which challenges
life – remains the most important in one country or region are transmitted to
responsibility of government. other parts of the world has increased
dramatically. Previously confineable threats
1.2 Fulfilling this responsibility requires a
to security now have the capacity to
strategic and comprehensive approach.
quickly affect citizens in the United
That is why last year, for the first time, the
Kingdom and our interests overseas.
Government published a National Security
Strategy: Security in an Interdependent 1.4 This means that our strategic and
World. This groundbreaking approach to comprehensive approach must also be a
tackling security challenges reflected a dynamic approach. As our understanding
profound and developing shift in our of national security has broadened, so too
understanding of national security: has the range and nature of our response
broadening the concept beyond the to security challenges. Our response to the
traditional focus of the protection of the challenges of the world today is grounded
state and its interests from attacks by other in our core values and a hard-headed
states, to include threats to individual assessment of our interests. But our
citizens and our way of life. That is why the strategic response must also be capable of
Government’s strategic framework for adapting and reacting nimbly to the
national security covers not just traditional challenges of a fast changing world.
areas of national security like hostile
That is why the Government committed to
military activity, or even new and
publishing an annual update of the
developing forms of terrorism, but also
National Security Strategy. This first annual
challenges such as climate change, energy
update comprises:
security and competition for resources,
serious organised crime, and major civil ●● our assessment of how the strategic
emergencies like pandemic ‘flu and context for our approach to securing
flooding. the UK has evolved since the National
Security Strategy was first introduced
1.3 Security in an Interdependent World
last year;
contained our first comprehensive
assessment of the international and ●● our vision for the security of UK citizens
domestic security landscape, which has in a safer world;
changed radically since the end of the
Cold War. In the two decades since then, ●● a set of guiding principles for all our
profound technological and work on security; and
communications advances have ●● a Strategic Framework for addressing
transformed the global landscape. challenges to our security, based on:
These have undoubtedly created many
opportunities, but also new challenges. –– understanding and tackling the
The impact of events in one country or drivers of threats;
region is now felt more directly, across
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
–– addressing the challenge of states, 1.5 Chapter 2 sets out the strategic
non-state actors and hazards which context for a secure UK. Chapter 3 sets out
could threaten our security; the vision; the guiding principles; and the
framework for our national strategy.
–– acting in all the domains through
Chapter 4 discusses the UK’s position and
which threats may manifest
interests, and our planning assumptions for
themselves;
guiding our security priorities. Chapters 5
–– an understanding of the UK’s to 7 set out the details of the capabilities
position, interests and responsibilities; we have and the actions we are taking to
address the drivers, threats and domains.
–– a set of planning assumptions to Chapter 8 summarises how our national
guide our security priorities; and strategy will be taken forward.
–– detailed capabilities and actions to
tackle the drivers, address the
threats, and be effective in all
important domains of activity.
18
Chapter 2
Context: The Global Security
Outlook Since March 2008
2.1 This chapter sets out the strategic and communications changes have
context for the United Kingdom’s national augmented this shift, with almost
security and the Government’s assessment instantaneous communication rendering
of how that strategic context is changing. physical distance far less important, and
the faster movement of people, goods and
Security in an interdependent capital worldwide rendering attempts to
world manage strategic challenges at a purely
2.2 The UK’s National Security Strategy is national level obsolete. The UK, with its
designed to address the challenges of the long tradition of facing outwards and
global age. The two decades since the end engaging strongly at a multilateral level, is
of the Cold War have seen a profound and well placed to lead this more integrated
rapid shift in the international landscape. global response to manage the challenges
UK national security in the twentieth of the twenty first century.
century was dominated by direct threats to 2.5 Many of the features of the new
the integrity of the UK as a sovereign global landscape are positive and the UK
nation of free citizens. This threat – remains in many ways more secure than
ideologically driven and existential in many countries, and more secure than at
nature – came directly from other states most times in our history. But this new
with competing, totalitarian ideologies: global picture also presents complex,
first, from fascism in the 1930s, and then diverse and unpredictable challenges.
from the communist Soviet Union in the As a nation, we cannot rule out the return
four decades of the Cold War. of a direct state threat to the UK, and our
2.3 Since the collapse of the Soviet Union highly trained and skilled Armed Forces are
there has been no direct, state sponsored, the ultimate guarantee of the nation’s
ideologically driven, existential threat to security. We also continue to face long-
the UK’s sovereignty and our way of life. established but rapidly evolving threats
At present no state directly threatens the from non-state actors, notably terrorists,
United Kingdom. and the potential threats from terrorists or
rogue states attempting to acquire
2.4 This absence of a competing, state chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear
sponsored challenge to the democratic, weapons for use against the UK and its
liberal, free market based societies of the interests.
UK and our allies has been accompanied
by a drive towards the opening up of trade 2.6 But, as Security in an Interdependent
and travel routes. At times this paradigm, World set out, the strategic, twenty-first
sometimes called the ‘Washington century context for national security is
Consensus’, has seemed to be moving much broader than these well-known risks.
inexorably towards an ever more globalised Global poverty and weak or fragile
society, underpinned by a rules based governance creates instability, and
international system. Rapid technological sometimes conflict, which can impact on
19
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
12 International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook (April 2009) Crisis and Recovery
20
Chapter 2: Context: The Global Security Outlook Since March 2008
sentiment in some parts of the world. This altered the fundamentals of the global
is not without historical precedent, as security landscape and our overall
previous slowdowns have also led assessment of the security challenges faced
countries to try and protect their own by the UK. It has not altered the
industries to the detriment of all. Government’s view that addressing
national security challenges in the modern
2.12 The Government firmly believes that
world are driven by a range of factors that
open international markets for products
arise as a result of a more globalised and
and services will maximise welfare for all
inter-dependent world.
countries, and the UK is a strong advocate
of international policy initiatives that It is therefore important not to
contribute to this goal. We believe an early overstate the impact of the slowdown
and successful conclusion of the Doha on the strategic global security picture.
round of World Trade Organisation (WTO) But some important and subtle shifts are
trade negotiations will demonstrate emerging as a result of the events of the
countries’ collective commitment to the past year, and the economic slowdown
principle of free trade. Opposing requires some reassessment of individual
protectionism has also been an important drivers of insecurity. There are three main
part of the G20 agenda during the UK’s areas within the strategic security
chairmanship this year. framework which reflects the
Government’s preliminary assessment of
2.13 The truly world-wide nature of the
the implications of the economic
crisis has emphasised the integration and
slowdown.
interdependence of countries within a
global economy. This has demonstrated 2.16 The first, and most important, is the
the need for policy responses coordinated impetus the downturn has given to more
across a wide range of countries. The effective cooperation in global governance.
prominent role the G20, made up of both The post-recovery global order cannot and
advanced and emerging economies, has will not be a resumption of the
played is a direct consequence of this, and international rules-based system before the
illustrates that emerging markets will be financial crisis and economic slowdown.
increasingly integral to global policy The global response has illustrated the
decisions. widespread acceptance of the need for
concerted action in international crises.
2.14 For the purposes of assessing the
The broadened scope of the global
strategic context for national security,
response, through the G20 in addition to
the Government needs to assess what
the post-war Group of Seven (G7)13 or
implications this global economic
Group of Eight (G8)14, is a welcome
slowdown has on the drivers of insecurity
development. It reflects the Government’s
and threats to national security. At this
key strategic objective, as expressed in
point, any assessment can only be
Security in an Interdependent World, to
preliminary, but some conclusions can
see enlarged multilateral mechanisms for
be drawn.
tackling such challenges. The UK is
2.15 The Government judges that the committed to the further reform of key
economic downturn has not, at this point, international institutions and seeks to
13 The G7 is the meeting of the finance ministers from seven industrialised nations: France, German, Italy, Japan,
USA, UK and Canada.
14 The G8 is a forum for the governments of eight nations in the northern hemisphere: Canada, France,
Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, UK and the USA.
21
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
make them more reflective of the twenty- for delivering our response to these
first century context and thus more challenges is set out in Chapter 7.
effective in their response to its challenges.
It is vital that these efforts succeed, and The wider strategic security
gain wide international support. context
2.17 Second, the National Security 2.20 In addition to the economic
Strategy recognises poverty and instability downturn, other events since the
as a key driver of national security publication of Security in an
challenges, and the most serious risk Interdependent World have illustrated the
arising from the global economic unpredictability of the security landscape
downturn is an exacerbation of those risks. that provided the impetus for a strategic
The Government assesses that economic framework for national security. There
difficulties may increase the fragility of remain a series of disparate threats to UK
already vulnerable states and regions. Any citizens and UK interests. The remainder of
resulting poverty or instability could act as this chapter analyses some of these key
a driver of insecurity. developments.
22
Chapter 2: Context: The Global Security Outlook Since March 2008
responsible for the murder of two Army the Iraqi Government we shall continue to
personnel and one officer from the Police support the training of the Iraqi armed
Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), the first forces and Royal Navy ships will continue
terrorist murder of a police officer in to protect the oil platforms that make a
Northern Ireland since 1997. These acts of significant contribution to Iraq’s economy
terrorism are aimed at destabilising and thus the country’s long term stability.
Northern Ireland and its people, and the Economic progress will help embed security
new power-sharing institutions they have gains.
endorsed. The Government will continue
2.27 Over the past year in Afghanistan,
to work with the Northern Ireland political
the UK and our NATO-led allies have
parties to strengthen the political
contributed more forces, more resources
agreement in Northern Ireland, and over
and more long term aid to help the Afghan
the past year together we have made
people bring stability and security to their
considerable progress towards the
country. The Taliban continue to threaten
devolution of policing and justice to the
the local population, undermine good
Executive.
governance and the rule of law, and
2.24 The UK’s approach to tackling collude with drugs traders. They seek once
terrorism, in whatever form it takes, again to rule Afghanistan, a shift which
continues to be grounded in our values, would see an increase in the freedom
including the rule of law. We oppose enjoyed by Al Qa’ida and other terrorist
torture and mistreatment in all its forms, organisations in the region to operate
and as we adapt our legal and operational training camps and to plan worldwide
framework to deal with changing threats, terrorist events. But through
so too are we strengthening the protection the remarkable efforts, and sacrifices,
of civil liberties and the role of of our Armed Forces, and as part of an
Parliamentary and judicial oversight in the international community effort, we are
protection of individual liberty. tackling the insurgency and the drugs
trade directly, developing Afghan capacity
Instability and conflict, failing and and reducing the threat to our national
fragile states security.
2.25 The UK continues to play a leading
2.28 Another illustration of where the
and active role in tackling conflict and its
failure of the rule of law in one country
causes. This is vitally important not just for
can have profound implications for the UK
those countries and regions but for our
and beyond is Somalia. State failure and
own interests and security.
lawlessness in that country means that
2.26 Progress in Iraq remains vital for the currently 3.1 million are dependent on
UK’s security interests, and much has been humanitarian relief and approximately
achieved. Violence is at its lowest level 200,000 children are malnourished. It also
since 2003; provincial elections were held threatens global trade, on which the UK
peacefully in January and, despite the critically depends, through the increase in
economic downturn, economic growth in piracy witnessed over the past year.
Iraq is predicted to be nearly 7 per cent this Somalia is also a concern because of the
year. Substantial challenges remain, but growing number of terrorist suspects who
Iraq’s future is now in the hands of its travel to the country for training.
people and politicians. British forces
2.29 Conflict continues to have the
conducted their last combat patrol in Basra
potential to destabilise individual regions.
on 30th April this year. At the request of
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
The conflict in Gaza in December and NATO, old rivalries in Europe have been
January emphasised the need for urgent transformed into peaceful and constructive
progress in securing a lasting peace partnership. However, the conflict between
agreement in the Middle East. The Russia and Georgia in August 2008 was a
Government strongly supports the reminder that unresolved conflicts on the
leadership of the new United States EU’s doorstep have the potential to spiral
Administration in their efforts in this into military confrontation. These conflicts
regard. can threaten our national and regional
security and have potentially negative
2.30 In common with Afghanistan,
wider implications. With several other
Pakistan is relevant to at least four of the
unresolved conflicts in the EU’s
major sources of threat set out in the
neighbourhood, including Nagorno
National Security Strategy.
Karabakh and Transnistria, the Russia
●● Terrorism – the senior leadership of – Georgia conflict demonstrated the need
Al Qa’ida remains located in the border for countries to make every effort, through
areas of Pakistan and a majority of the political dialogue and within international
most serious terrorist plots investigated law, to find a solution to ongoing disputes.
in the UK have links to Pakistan. As we have seen with the Western
Balkans, the UK is convinced that closer
●● Conflict – insecurity in Pakistan has an Euro-Atlantic integration for countries in
impact on regional stability which the region, if they so choose, will
affects the UK’s interests. contribute to a safer, more prosperous
●● Trans-national crime – an estimated world.
45 per cent of the heroin in the UK
Nuclear weapons and other
is smuggled via Pakistan.
weapons of mass destruction
●● Weapons of mass destruction – Pakistan 2.32 Over the past year, we have
is a nuclear armed state. Its proper witnessed the continued risk of
control of its weapons and nuclear proliferation of nuclear weapons, most
material, and the prevention of notably from Iran and North Korea. The
proliferation to other countries and Government believes that the proliferation
non‑state actors is vital to our interests. of nuclear weapons and other weapons of
Pakistan currently faces grave security mass destruction must be addressed
challenges including a major insurgency through firm, coordinated international
along its border with Afghanistan and a action. But we must also ensure that
growing threat from violent extremism nuclear weapons states keep their side of
across the country. The economic situation the bargain, and that we address the
remains fragile and potentially vulnerable energy needs, including nuclear power,
to further external shocks. Pakistan has of those countries that need it if we are
made significant efforts, at a considerable successfully to tackle the challenge of
cost in lives lost, to address many of these climate change. That is why the
challenges. The UK remains committed to Government has committed to setting out
a long term strategic partnership with a comprehensive roadmap to nuclear
Pakistan grounded in a common desire to supply and security issues. The
tackle Pakistan’s problems. Government’s paper, Road to 2010, will be
published later this year.
2.31 Since the end of the Second World
War and the inception of the EU and
24
Chapter 2: Context: The Global Security Outlook Since March 2008
25
Chapter 3
The UK Government’s Approach
to National Security: guiding
principles and the Strategic
Framework
3.1 This chapter sets out the Government’s vision embraces a world based on
vision for national security; the principles cooperation between peoples and nations,
guiding our approach; and the framework with collective responsibility taken for
behind the United Kingdom’s National collective problems, and every nation state,
Security Strategy, to address the including the UK, playing its part in
challenges of the strategic context outlined working for this better world.
in Chapter 2.
3.5 To achieve this future involves all the
The vision for national security actions of government, domestically and
internationally. Not all these actions form
3.2 In Security in an Interdependent
part of this strategy. This update to the
World, the Government stated that its
National Security Strategy covers the
single overarching national security
protection of our people and our country
objective was:
from disruptive threats.
“Protecting the United Kingdom and its
interests, enabling its people to go about National security as protection
their daily lives freely and with confidence, against disruptive threats
in a more secure, stable, just and 3.6 It is not straightforward to define
prosperous world.” national security. Traditional approaches to
national security have focused on military
3.3 This remains our objective. National threats, on espionage, and on other
security may often require action to protect threats to the state and its interests.
the functions of government, but this is to However, the disruptive threats which
enable government to meet this could endanger our freedom come from a
fundamental objective. Protecting our wide range of sources. In Security in an
people’s freedoms includes protecting our Interdependent World we committed to
capacity to govern ourselves, and adopting a broader approach to national
protecting our democracy and the rule of security, considering all those threats to
law as vital elements of our way of life. citizens and to our way of life, including to
3.4 Nor is protecting our people all that the state and its vital functions. Therefore,
government can do to achieve a better in this strategy we include not just the
future. The Government has a wider vision threat from hostile states, but also non-
to create a strong, fair, prosperous and state threats such as terrorism or serious
secure society, in which everyone has the organised crime, and serious hazards to
opportunity to live their lives and make the the UK, such as flooding; not just
most of their abilities, with fair chances for traditional areas through which we may be
all, and governed by fair rules. This wider threatened, such as military action, but
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
new ones such as cyber space; not just scale. For example, while ordinary criminal
traditional drivers of threats such as violence is not a matter of national security,
nationalism or inter-state rivalry, but wider a threat to the life of people in the UK
drivers such as climate change, from terrorists, or from an overseas state,
competition for resources, or international is a sufficient attack on our way of life to
poverty. amount to a national security threat.
3.7 This does not mean that climate Guiding principles for national
change or poverty are themselves national
security
security threats in the way in which threats,
such as terrorism, are defined in this 3.10 Our work to defend national security
strategy. Rather they drive, exacerbate or is driven above all by some abiding
change the way in which threats are principles, as well as by the UK’s interests.
manifested. Nor does it mean that in In Security in an Interdependent World we
responding to these issues, the set out eight principles to guide all our
Government seeks to address them solely national security work. They remain vital,
through a security prism. They are major and are repeated here.
global issues and security may not be the ●● Our approach to national security is
only reason for tackling them. clearly grounded in a set of core values.
3.8 The threats with which we are These include human rights, the rule of
concerned in this strategy are those which law, legitimate and accountable
have the potential to provide severe and government, justice, freedom, tolerance
sudden damage to our people, our and opportunity for all.
institutions or our way of life. This Strategy ●● We will be hard-headed about the risks,
looks ahead and aims to address such our aims and our capabilities. We adopt
potential threats over the next twenty a rigorous approach to assessing the
years. It does not define longer term trends risks and threats to our security, and the
as threats. But we recognise the need to options for tackling them.
act now to address the impact of wider
drivers of national security, such as climate ●● Wherever possible, we will tackle
change, even though its most serious security challenges early. We scan the
impacts may not occur within the next horizon for future challenges, and we
twenty years. And, in time, any long-term aim where we can to tackle not just
global trends, such as the gradual threats as and when they become real,
exhaustion of hydrocarbon fuel sources but also the drivers or causes of threats
could become acute enough to constitute before they lead to potential damage to
a security threat. We will continue to our security.
assess, through horizon scanning and ●● Overseas, we will favour a multilateral
ongoing analysis, whether further approach. This is based on our need to
refinement might be necessary. work collectively with partners to tackle
3.9 What counts as serious enough to be threats that are almost always threats to
a national security threat? A partial answer many of us, not just to the UK and its
might be whether the response required people, and most of which we would
needs to be at a national, rather than a be unable fully to tackle on our own.
local or regional level. But a national ●● At home, we will favour a partnership
security threat is not simply a matter of approach. The range of threat actors,
28
Chapter 3: The UK Government’s Approach to National Security: Guiding Principles and the Strategic Framework
drivers and domains set out in this ●● Inside government, we will develop a
Strategy means that Government more integrated approach. This involves
cannot work alone to protect our integrating both our domestic and
people. Our people themselves, through foreign policy, and integrating different
voluntary organisations, civic society, departments, agencies and areas of
private industrial sector and all levels of policy in support of joined-up responses
government need to work together to to threats.
tackle domestic threats and develop our
●● We will retain strong, balanced and
resilience.
flexible capabilities. Some of the
capabilities needed for our protection
The Government’s Partnership have to be the responsibility of central
with Industry Government: for example intelligence
The Government maintains a strong gathering and analysis, military
relationship with the defence capabilities, and our diplomatic
industrial base. This is now being network. These have to be maintained
extended by expertise in other key as effective and flexible, to cope with
areas of national security through its the threats we have identified now,
strategic partnership and dialogue those we are preparing for through our
with the UK security industry including horizon scanning, and those that might
through the Security and Resilience emerge in the future.
Industry Suppliers Community (RISC).
●● We will continue to invest, learn and
Technology plays a vital role in improve to strengthen our security. This
countering many of the threats Strategy develops and learns from
we face. The UK is a world leader lessons identified since Security in an
in the field of security, and has a Interdependent World. We apply lessons
long experience of dealing with identified from areas of national security
a variety of significant security where our thinking is more mature to
threats. Our security industry is one deal with the new or evolving
of the most diverse and technically challenges as they emerge.
advanced in the world, with UK
3.11 In this Strategy we develop the
companies – many of whom are Small
theme of protecting and involving our
Medium Enterprises – producing
citizens in national security. There are
innovative solutions and cutting edge
many examples of this set out in the
technologies across the full spectrum
Strategy, including:
of security, covering the protection
of people, assets and critical national ●● The priority given to countering
infrastructure. international terrorism, as the most
significant security threat currently
We benefit from strong partnerships facing the people of the UK, and our
between the public and private sectors approach, which seeks to engage the
in the security environment, involving public as fully as possible on national
academia, industry and our security security issues.
services. This enables us to respond
quickly to new and emerging threats ●● The strengthening of our work to
in order to protect the UK and our combat serious organised crime,
friends and allies around the world. recognising the harm and direct
consequences that such crime can have
on our people, communities and
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
This is fundamental to our approach. We cannot protect our country, our people and
our way of life unless the ways in which we do so are themselves compatible with
that way of life. We are a free people with a proud history of defending and
advocating freedom, building up the rule of law, and extending justice and human
rights. We have worked towards greater tolerance and opportunity for all, and
continue to do so.
All our actions are designed to be compatible with these values. We hold ourselves
to the highest standards, but it is a fundamental challenge facing any government,
to balance the measures intended to protect security and the right to life with the
impact they may have on the other core values. We ensure that the use of any
measure is necessary and proportionate to the risk an individual poses, and that
safeguards are in place to ensure the individual’s rights are respected. Thus all our
actions to protect our people’s security have to be compatible with applicable
domestic and international law, including the European Convention on Human
Rights. This includes the actions of our armed forces, our police services, and our
security and intelligence agencies.
Similarly, in considering measures to protect the public, we take into account rights
such as privacy, freedom of speech, and the right to a fair trial. The compatibility of
all our actions with these rights is challengeable in our courts.
These values also guide our counter-terrorism work, where between 11 September
2001 and 31 March 2008, a total of 196 people have been convicted of a terrorist
or terrorist-related offence, many under the new offences which have been brought
in since 2001. In terrorist trials in 2007/8, over half of suspects pleaded guilty.
Our values govern our engagement with partners abroad, including in the difficult
area of detention. In undertaking this work, we have been absolutely clear that the
UK stands firmly against torture. This is a fundamental principle guiding our
approach and that of those who work to protect us, not just in terms of law, but
also in terms of our values as a nation. In March, the Prime Minister announced that
the Government will publish, for the first time, its guidance to intelligence officers
and service personnel about the standards that we apply during detention and
interviewing of detainees overseas. The Intelligence Services Commissioner,
Sir Peter Gibson, will monitor compliance with this guidance.
30
Chapter 3: The UK Government’s Approach to National Security: Guiding Principles and the Strategic Framework
beliefs
Threat Threat Threat
Threat actors Drivers Actors Domains
l states
l failing/fragile
states
l terrorists
l criminals
l nature/hazards
Domains Multiple
UK actions departments
l nuclear weapons and agencies
l maritime
l cyber space
l space
l public opinion, culture
31
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
3.14 This strategic framework builds on 3.18 Our National Security Strategy
and develops the approach set out in concerns drivers, threats and domains.
Security in an Interdependent World, It includes a comprehensive set of actions
where the Government distinguished by government: to address the drivers; to
clearly for the first time between threats to tackle the threats; and to protect ourselves
our national security, and drivers of in each of the domains.
insecurity. In this framework that
3.19 This is a wide remit of potential
distinction is developed further.
action. We need to act where we can have
3.15 First, global drivers of insecurity are the most beneficial effect, unilaterally or in
the causes, reasons or motivations which partnership. We use our guiding principles,
might drive state or non-state actors to and our assessment of our interests and
behave in a way which could potentially position in the world, to help choose from
damage our national security. The the many actions we could undertake. And
framework assesses the most important of our actions must be integrated across
these drivers, and prioritises action to deal departments and agencies. The framework
with the effects of these drivers, and thus provides a structure for organising and
reduce the likelihood that they will cause aligning all the many levers of government.
threats. Drivers concern answers to the
3.20 The different components of the
question “Why might our national security
framework are frequently inter-connected:
be threatened?”
one driver can impact on another driver;
3.16 Secondly, the threats to our national the boundaries between different types of
security are the people, states or threat actors can be blurred; and particular
institutions which could act in a hostile threats can be manifested in multiple
way to threaten our people and way of domains, and require multiple tools to
life. They could be established states with a combat them. Moreover, our interests in
wide range of capabilities; failing or fragile advancing our national security are
states; non-state actors motivated by increasingly inter-connected with the
ideology such as terrorists; or non-state interests of others.
actors with mercenary motivations, such as
3.21 The application of this strategic
organised criminals. In addition, there is a
framework is discussed in more detail in
category of threats known as ‘civil
later chapters, which set out the actions
emergencies’ which are disruptive actions
the Government is taking to address each
caused by accidents or by the hazards of
of the important drivers, threat actors, and
nature, such as floods, storms or
domains of national security.
pandemics. The category of threat actors
(including Nature and accidents) concern
National Security in law
answers to the question “Who or what
might threaten our national security?” 3.22 In setting out this Strategic
Framework for analysis and consideration
3.17 The strategic framework also adds a of national security issues, the Government
third category, of domains of threat: those is not seeking to amend the legal
environments in which threats may understanding of the term “national
become manifest. The category of threat security” as it has been established in
domains concern answers to the question statute and common law.
“How or by what means or where
might a threat to our national security be
manifested?”
32
Chapter 3: The UK Government’s Approach to National Security: Guiding Principles and the Strategic Framework
National Security Capabilities vital support from the Territorial Army and
3.23 Our actions may consist of the the Reserves. The current UK contribution
strategic development of capabilities, such to the NATO-led International Security
as military, diplomatic or intelligence Assistance Force in Afghanistan is playing a
capabilities, scientific or technical key role in the South, the Taliban heartland
capabilities; or they may consist of the and centre of the drugs trade. By tackling
application of those capabilities to the insurgency and the drugs trade directly
particular situations or issues. and developing Afghan capacity we are, as
part of an international community effort,
3.24 Capabilities can be applied to tackle reducing the threat to our national security.
many threats, and to deal with many
aspects of the framework. For example, 3.27 At home, the Armed Forces
our Armed Forces can operate to address contribute to security by supporting the
threats from states, contribute to tackling civilian authorities in a wide range of tasks,
civil emergencies; and they can also, as including through quick-reaction fighter
part of a comprehensive civil and military aircraft and Royal Naval patrolling of our
approach, contribute to addressing territorial waters, disaster relief, search and
instability. We aim to develop flexible rescue operations and support for counter-
capabilities which can be applied to deal terrorism operations.
with a wide variety of potential future 3.28 To enable the armed forces
threats and in a variety of threat domains. successfully to deliver these effects, the
The Government’s range of capabilities for Government continues to make a major
delivering our national security include: investment in our service personnel, their
●● The Armed Forces; equipment and the infrastructure that
supports them. This investment includes the
●● The Security and Intelligence Agencies; decision in 2006 to maintain the UK’s
nuclear deterrent and major new equipment
●● Diplomacy; and
programmes, including improved armoured
●● International Development Activity. vehicles for the Army and Royal Marines,
continued commitment to renewing the
National Security Capabilities: Royal Navy, through Type 45 Destroyers,
The Armed Forces ASTUTE submarines and the Future Aircraft
3.25 The capabilities of the UK’s armed Carriers, and investment in new aircraft
forces are a core element of our ability to and weapons for the Royal Air Force,
ensure our national security. They provide including Typhoon Tranche 3 and REAPER
the ultimate defence against direct threats unmanned air vehicles.
to the UK and its overseas territories, and
3.29 And the Government has continued
they contribute to tackling threats to our
to invest to improve the infrastructure,
national security overseas by helping to
accommodation and terms and conditions
address conflict, instability and crises across
for our service personnel. Since the
the globe.
publication of the Government’s Service
3.26 Internationally, the deployments to Personnel Command Paper (Cm 7424)15 in
Iraq and Afghanistan have involved July last year, we have doubled the Armed
personnel from all three Services, including Forces Compensation Scheme maximum
15 HM Government (July 2008) The Nation’s Commitment: Cross-Government Support to Our Armed Forces,
Their Families and Veterans (Cm 7424 July 2008).
http://www.mod.uk/Defenceinternet/aboutDefence/Corporatepublications/Personnel/Publications/Welfare/
TheNationsCommitmentCrossGovernmentSupporttoourArmedForcesandTheirFamiliesandVeterans.htm
33
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
16 New Deal – Jobcentre Plus offers a number of New Deal programmes to help unemployed people, particularly
those who have been unemployed for a long time, people with disabilities and anyone in need of extra help to
find work.
34
Chapter 3: The UK Government’s Approach to National Security: Guiding Principles and the Strategic Framework
35
The National Security Strategic
Framework
l competition
for energy
Why? Who / what? How?
l poverty, inequality
beliefs
Threat Threat Threat
Threat actors
Drivers Actors Domains
l states
l failing/fragile
states
l terrorists
l criminals
l nature/hazards
Domains Multiple
l nuclear weapons UK actions departments
and agencies
l maritime
l cyber space
l space
36
Chapter 4
The UK Government’s Approach
to National Security: interests,
planning assumptions and
organisation
4.1 This chapter sets out how we apply 4.3 It is impossible to capture all the
the principles and Strategic Framework diverse characteristics of our country. But
discussed in Chapter 3 to the particular this section highlights certain features of
interests and concerns of the United particular importance for national security.
Kingdom and its people. Drawing on an
4.4 The UK is a multi-national state
assessment of these interests, and our
covering the island of Great Britain and
work on horizon scanning about the future
Northern Ireland. Overall, the UK is
development of threats and drivers, it
relatively densely populated, and we have
outlines some planning assumptions which
limited domestic food and energy
underpin this Strategy and future strategic
resources. Our economy, the sixth largest
work on national security issues and
in the world, is based on the import of
priorities. Finally, it sets out how the
primary and manufactured products and
Government is organised to deliver all the
the export of services and high value-
actions necessary for national security, and
added manufactured products. It is a free
how these actions are integrated into a
market economy, with a tradition of
coherent strategic approach.
openness. We have a pattern of trade that
The position and interests of reaches many parts of the world, not just
Europe, and very large overseas
the United Kingdom
investments matched by substantial foreign
4.2 To understand how to protect our investment in our infrastructure and
people and our way of life, we need a clear economy.
understanding of our position in the world,
our assets and advantages, and the 4.5 We are a long-established democratic
challenges and vulnerabilities we face. This constitutional monarchy, with a strong
section sets out a baseline assessment of central government and devolved
some of the key characteristics of the UK, administrations in three countries of our
and some key implications of how we United Kingdom. We are part of the
therefore need to protect our national European Union (EU) and therefore share
security. The challenges – in terms of the competence for many aspects of
drivers, threats and domains of threat – are government action with other member
set out in subsequent chapters. In a public states and the institutions of the EU.
document we will not discuss all of our We have other strong overseas ties and
vulnerabilities, lest we help potential responsibilities, economic, familial and
adversaries. But within these parameters cultural, including with our overseas
we will be as transparent as possible. territories, the Commonwealth, with the
United States and with other countries.
Over 5 million British citizens live overseas.
37
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
4.6 We are one of the few major military force, and over the last century, this
European states with a growing has particularly been in defence of our
population. An increasing proportion of values and freedoms.
our population (8.9 per cent in 2005)17 is
4.10 What does all this imply for our
made up of ethnic minorities, from very
national security? As we consider how to
many different backgrounds. Over 4.1
tackle the threats to our national security,
million residents of the UK are foreign
through the Strategic Framework, we need
citizens18. In an increasingly globalised
to bear in mind the following factors:
world, diaspora communities can
contribute to the UK’s economic and ●● Because our economic interests, our
cultural success. citizens, and our cultural and familial
connections with other countries are
4.7 We have a markedly pluralistic society,
spread throughout many parts of the
with a tradition of open debate supported
world, we have interests that are
by a lively free press, and a very long-
genuinely worldwide rather than
standing tradition of the rule of law. We
local or regional, and we need to be
have a strong belief in values which should
able to influence events in many parts
guide our Government’s actions. But we
of the world, working with partners in
also have a tradition of individualism which
many regions.
means that our values and identity are not
easily captured in a single narrative. ●● Given the openness of our economy,
and our dependence on trade from
4.8 The UK, and London in particular, is
around the world, and flows of energy,
a hub for a number of global activities:
information, resources and capital, we
communications, media (partly because
need to be able to ensure that these
of the position of English as a world
flows are open and secure.
language), services including business and
finance, education and international ●● But as we cannot secure world trade
transport. and resource flows on our own,
necessarily we must work in
4.9 We have strong and well established
partnership with other countries, and
alliances and security interests, notably as a
with international institutions, to ensure
leading member of the EU and NATO, a
that security.
permanent member of the UN Security
Council, and as a nuclear weapons state. ●● The UK’s position as a hub of
We have a strong and enduring partnership international communications, travel
with the United States, and other countries and migration means that it can act as
including Canada, Australia and New a stage where international events
Zealand, in security and other areas. Our can be played out domestically, with
membership of the Commonwealth, which events in other countries having an
is headed by Her Majesty The Queen, impact on populations resident here.
provides a forum within which the UK can The growth of diaspora communities in
engage with a wide range of partners in the UK means that some overseas
different continents. Given our history in conflicts or instability can be felt acutely
past centuries, our people have often been at home. Domestic security cannot
more supportive of action, including be separated from overseas security
overseas intervention and/or the use of issues.
17 UN Department for Economic and Social Affairs (March 2006) UN World Population Policies.
18 Office for National Statistics (ONS), March 2009.
38
Chapter 4: The UK Government’s Approach to National Security: Interests, Planning Assumptions and Organisation
●● Our role in established international position, our influence and our interests
alliances such as NATO means that, helps us prioritise which of those actions
while there is no discernible state threat are most important for us.
to the independence, integrity or
capacity for self-government of the UK, Key planning assumptions for
we have obligations to other states national security
which might be more likely to face 4.13 Our work to protect national security
such threats, and we have to take into rests on the following key planning
account possible state threats to assumptions, which are based on our
allies who may be distant from our horizon scanning of possible futures and
borders. our assessment of current and future
●● The tradition of open debate, combined threats. We have organised these planning
with a robust independent legal system, assumptions by the categories used in the
means that policies and actions to Strategic Framework described in Chapter
protect our national security have to 3. Unless otherwise stated they relate to
command consent, and be the next five years. Our horizon scanning
defensible to the public as consistent extends to 20 years. On occasions, we
with our values, and justifiable legally. need to plan programmes over even longer
In addition, both the UK’s international timescales, but that inevitably requires a
connections and our past can lead to a degree of caution, given the challenges of
public expectation of action on overseas predicting events over those timescales and
issues greater than in many other the risks of unforeseen strategic shocks in
developed nations. Our inherited links the intervening period.
to other parts of the world, and our 4.14 These planning assumptions are not
past and recent actions overseas, heavily intended to be exhaustive. Nor are they a
influence the perception of UK security substitute for more detailed operational
actions now. Positively, this can help us planning assumptions for individual parts
exercise leadership and influence of Government. However, they provide,
beyond our objective power; negatively, within the Strategic Framework for
it can limit our influence on some national security, a basis for informing
important issues and regions. strategic planning across the broader range
4.11 All of this means we have a of the Government’s national security
particularly large stake in the success responsibilities. The planning assumptions
of the international rules-based must be, and are, flexible enough to allow
system. We need international institutions different parts of Government to tackle
to be effective, and we need overseas different challenges as they arise.
actors, states and non-states, to abide by
international rules.
Planning assumptions about the
drivers of insecurity
4.12 These factors are taken into account 4.15 The National Security Strategy is
in assessing what priority we should give based on a set of assumptions around our
to particular actions to defend our national more integrated world, where UK citizens
security. Given the very wide range of and interests are affected by a more
issues which directly or indirectly affect diverse range of risks. There are therefore
national security, there is an equally large key planning assumptions about global
range of actions we could take to protect drivers:
it. This hard-headed assessment of our
39
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
4.16 Global trends: the drivers of human settlements. Over the next twenty
insecurity, security threats to the UK and years these effects will be manageable
how they can arise, and the required but beyond that, the risk of dangerous
response, will continue to be driven by a impacts will increase strongly. We need to
more interdependent global security act now to mitigate the most dangerous
landscape: consequences and adapt to those we
cannot prevent, because in the longer
●● the global economy: the present
term, climate change will act as a global
global economic recession will increase
threat multiplier, exacerbating existing
fragility in the security situation in some
weaknesses and tensions around the
key regions, but will also provide an
world.
opportunity for increased global
cooperation during the recovery and ●● Poverty: Most developing countries’
beyond; economies will, once the global recession
has ended, continue to grow over the
●● technology: worldwide advances in
medium to long term. Development in
technology will, alongside all their
countries like China and India will help
positive aspects, inevitably bring with
to lift millions out of poverty. However,
them emerging national security
there may be a group of fragile and
challenges, for example in cyber
conflict-affected states that will benefit
technology and nuclear power;
much less from the economic recovery
particularly if they are exploited by
and future growth.
terrorists and organised criminal groups,
or others with malicious intent; and ●● Competition for energy: Global
energy demand will continue to increase
●● demography: the world’s population
over the next 20 years and competition
will continue its rapid increase, which,
for energy and other resources will
combined with rising living standards
intensify. The scope for disputes within,
worldwide will increase demand for
and between, states could therefore
food and energy by up to 50 per cent
increase. Continued instability in energy
and water by up to 30 per cent over a
markets will put increased pressure on
20 year period. This will bring new
existing resources. If oil demand
challenges for regional stability in key
increases faster than supply over the
areas affected.
coming months, this could lead to a
4.17 Other drivers of instability: Three tightening of oil markets and potentially
of the other key drivers of instability – higher oil prices, which could jeopardise
climate change, poverty, and competition a sustainable economic recovery.
for energy – have potential individual
4.18 Ideologies: the National Security
implications for national security and may
Strategy recognises the potential for
exacerbate the risks of regional instability
ideologically driven threats to UK citizens
and conflict:
and interests and specifically:
●● Climate change: the world’s climate will ●● Al Qa’ida inspired ideology: the
continue to change with increasing global
ideology associated with Al Qa’ida will
temperatures and changing rainfall
outlive any changes to its structure. It
patterns. Such changes will increase the
will continue to attract support. A small
risks to human society and the natural
but significant number of people will
environment with increasing pressure on
remain committed to violent extremism.
health, water resources, agriculture and
40
Chapter 4: The UK Government’s Approach to National Security: Interests, Planning Assumptions and Organisation
41
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
4.21 The other key planning assumptions 4.23 The key planning assumptions for the
for threat actors are: domains of threat are:
●● Failing and fragile states: there will ●● Nuclear weapons and other
be continuing conflict, insurgency and weapons of mass destruction: as well
instability in failing or fragile states. as some states seeking to acquire
Some of these conflicts may have a nuclear capabilities, terrorists will
direct or indirect bearing on our continue to seek access to chemical,
national security or that of our allies; biological, radiological and nuclear
capabilities. There is an imperative to
●● Conflict: Violent conflict and serious
secure fissile and other dangerous
instability between states will also
material;
persist. Such conflicts may erupt quickly
and may engage states in which the UK ●● Cyber space: this will become
has a direct interest; increasingly important as a national
security domain, as it continues to play
●● Trans-national organised crime: the
an ever greater role in almost all forms
spread of globalisation and advances in
of human activity; and
technology will continue to act as the
main facilitator of transnationally linked ●● Public opinion, culture, and
serious organised crime- increasing the information: in turn, the
pace of ‘old’ crimes such as drugs and connectedness across the globe
enabling ‘new’ crimes such as e-crime. provided by cyber space means that the
This will increase the ability of serious domain of culture and public opinion
organised criminals to operate from a will be increasingly important.
safe distance to minimise risk, enabling
4.24 The UK has a range of capabilities,
criminals to locate in weak and/or
spanning military and non‑military
fragile states to evade detection; and
activities, underpinning our response to the
●● Hazards: there is a likelihood of severe range of threats within the national
weather events and other hazards, security strategy.
particularly widespread flooding,
4.25 The key planning assumptions are:
sufficient to cause disruption in the UK.
The risk of pandemic influenza remains ●● Operationally, activity in Afghanistan to
high (as demonstrated by the current deny Al Qa’ida a haven and to increase
outbreak). the stability of the nation of
Afghanistan is likely to dominate the
Planning assumptions about activities of UK Armed Forces;
actions in the domains of threat
●● Capacity-building will become an
and the United Kingdom’s
increasingly important task for the UK’s
capabilities Armed Forces and will include tasks
4.22 The National Security Strategy such as security sector reform, training
recognises both how threats can arise and of local security and military forces and
the importance of maintaining, adapting building local counter-insurgency skills.
and, where necessary strengthening, the
capabilities of the UK to respond to them. ●● The UK’s Armed Forces are likely to be
deployed to confront terrorists, manage
peacekeeping or assist with stabilisation
and development. In those cases, they
42
Chapter 4: The UK Government’s Approach to National Security: Interests, Planning Assumptions and Organisation
are likely to be confronted by a mixture 4.26 We do not include in this list any
of high-tech and low-tech military overt planning assumptions about our
capabilities; and the success of their vulnerabilities, nor about gaps in our
operations will depend less on capabilities, so as to avoid giving assistance
battlefield success and more on shaping to actual or potential adversaries.
behaviours and gaining support for
4.27 We use this approach (principles,
political change;
strategic framework, interests, and
●● Adversaries are unlikely to challenge the planning assumptions) to set priorities
UK (and its NATO allies) in traditional across the whole of the national security
military domains, given the Alliance’s strategy, and within sub-strategies for
conventional superiority. However, there particular areas, to build up flexible
are feasible scenarios which could draw capabilities, and to use those capabilities.
NATO allies into traditional military The detailed priorities for particular areas
conflict or which would have many of of action are set out in subsequent
the characteristics of traditional military chapters.
conflict; and
How Government is organised
●● The range of potential threats which
to protect national security
require non-military capabilities will
continue to develop, as state and 4.28 The Government manages national
non-state actors increasingly pose security issues, including all the issues
threats in non-military domains. covered in this Strategy, through a cross-
Continued law enforcement, security Government approach involving many
and intelligence work will be needed to departments and agencies, as well as
monitor the threat, to disrupt those partners in civil society, other levels of
activities where necessary and to government, and international partners.
prosecute through the criminal justice The integration of government action to
system where possible; tackle national security is vital.
●● To address the risk from terrorists, 4.29 Within Government, national security
hazards, and other threat actors, the matters are handled at strategic level by
UK’s capabilities for responding to the Cabinet committee for National
non-military threats will continue to Security, International Relations and
need to become more integrated and Development (known as NSID), chaired by
flexible, with a greater capability to the Prime Minister. There are also sub-
involve the citizen, local groups and the committees of NSID, some chaired by the
private sector in maintaining and Prime Minister and some by other senior
enhancing the capabilities required; and Ministers, which deal with particular
aspects of national security. These
●● Over a 20 year horizon, significant committees are supported by the Cabinet
progress in modernising the Secretariat, which works to ensure
international rules based system is coordination across Government of all
essential if the global capability to tackle policy and action on national security
increasingly global problems is to be issues. Programme management of actions
sufficiently robust in the long term. This set out in the National Security Strategy is
will require active diplomatic and other coordinated by the National Security
effort from the UK. Secretariat in the Cabinet Office.
43
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
4.30 This work is supported by horizon 4.32 Each component of the Strategy
scanning on national security issues. requires cross-Government leadership and
Horizon scanning is the systematic coordination, as each requires more than
examination of potential future threats and one department, and often many
opportunities, including those at the departments, to work together to deliver
margins of current and future thinking or the actions needed for each component.
planning. In Security in an Interdependent
4.33 Some aspects of national security
World, we committed to strengthening our
involve responsibilities and responses
capacity for horizon scanning and, in July
which are devolved to the administrations
2008, established a Strategic Horizons Unit
in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
in the Cabinet Office. This Unit coordinates
For example, law enforcement and justice
horizon scanning on national security
are devolved in Scotland; and aspects of
issues across government to ensure that
resilience and the response to civil
the assessment of threat drivers, threat
emergencies are devolved in all three
actors, and domains of threat activity are
countries. Responsibility for national
kept up to date, and looking to the future.
security as a whole is reserved to the UK
The Joint Intelligence Committee also
Government. The Government works
provides a strategic look at future trends.
closely with the devolved administrations
This enables the national security strategy
to ensure that the aspects of national
process to anticipate and plan for some of
security work falling to them contribute
the problems of tomorrow.
effectively to the security of the whole of
4.31 Parliamentary oversight of the the UK.
Strategy will be provided by a new Joint
4.34 Within central government, there are
Committee on the National Security
lead Ministers and departments responsible
Strategy, comprising members of both
for each component as follows:
Houses of Parliament, and including the
chairs of some key House of Commons ●● State-led threats to the UK – the Foreign
select committees with an interest in and Commonwealth Office.
national security. The remit of this new
committee is to review the Strategy.
44
Chapter 4: The UK Government’s Approach to National Security: Interests, Planning Assumptions and Organisation
Olympic security measures will be integrated with, and draw on, resources allocated
under the United Kingdom’s Strategy for Countering International Terrorism
(CONTEST) and other pre-existing security regimes, such as those governing the
transport networks. Additionally, we aim to secure some legacy benefits from the
investment made in Olympic security which will support the security arrangements
for future sporting events, such as the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow in 2014.
●● Global instability and conflict and failed Office, coordinating the work of lead
and fragile states – the Foreign and government departments for each type
Commonwealth Office. of emergency (for example, the
Department of Health for human health
●● Terrorism (with the exception of Irish-
issues, and the Department of
related terrorism in Northern Ireland) –
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs for
the Home Office.
animal diseases).
●● Irish-related terrorism in Northern
4.35 In addition, the lead responsibility for
Ireland – the Northern Ireland Office.
coordinating action relevant for national
●● Serious organised crime – the Home security on key threat drivers is as follows:
Office (and within Northern Ireland, the ●● Global economic trends – Her Majesty’s
Northern Ireland Office).
Treasury
●● Civil Emergencies – the Civil
Contingencies Secretariat in the Cabinet
45
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
●● Climate change – Department of Energy 4.37 Supporting these functions, there are
and Climate Change also lead responsibilities for coordinating
the development and application of our
●● Competition for energy – Department
national capabilities for acting in particular
of Energy and Climate Change
domains:
●● Poverty, inequality and poor governance ●● military – Ministry of Defence
– Department for International
Development ●● diplomatic – Foreign and
Commonwealth Office
●● Ideologies – work on the ideology
underpinning the main strand of ●● intelligence – the Cabinet Office is
international terrorism is led by the responsible for co-ordinating the Single
Office for Security and Counter- Intelligence Account and supports the
Terrorism based in the Home Office Prime Minister in overseeing the
intelligence community. The individual
4.36 The National Security Secretariat in
heads of Agencies have responsibility in
the Cabinet Office supports the Prime
statute for each Agency
Minister and NSID, and leads work to
address the interconnectedness of the ●● cyber security – Office for Cyber Security
various threat drivers. This includes leading in the Cabinet Office
a number of cross-cutting studies on key
4.38 It is important that the strands of
areas of national security, and supporting
work on the various drivers, threat actors
the work of the National Security Forum.
and threat domains do not become
separate from each other, and create silos
of activity. It is the role of the Cabinet
Secretariat, supporting the National
Security, International Relations and
Development committee of the Cabinet,
to ensure that these strands of work are
considered strategically, balanced, and
prioritised to best effect in pursuit of our
overall national security objective.
46
The National Security Strategic
Framework
l competition
for energy
Why? Who / what? How?
l poverty, inequality
beliefs
Threat Threat Threat
Threat actors
Drivers Actors Domains
l states
l failing/fragile
states
l terrorists
l criminals
l nature/hazards
Domains Multiple
l nuclear weapons UK actions departments
and agencies
l maritime
l cyber space
l space
48
Chapter 5
UK National Security Framework –
Tackling the drivers of insecurity
5.1 Challenges to national security spring a robust rules based system, the continued
from a variety of drivers and motivations. development of globalisation and the more
This chapter looks at why there are equal distribution of benefits remains the
challenges to the United Kingdom’s best way to achieve future security and
interests and our way of life, and at stability.
how we address them.
The United Kingdom as a
5.2 Security in an Interdependent World globalised nation
identified some of the main drivers of
5.4 The UK is a highly ‘globalised’ nation.
threats to national security. No such list of
This reflects our long history as an open,
drivers can be exhaustive or remain
outward facing, trading nation and a hub
constant over time. What matters is to
of global activity. As Chapter 3 explained,
identify the most important drivers likely to
the distinctive characteristics of the UK as a
influence threat actors in ways which may
nation mean that it is impossible, when
affect the UK, now and for the future. In
thinking about our own national security
this Strategy we identify the following
interests, to separate the ‘domestic’ and
priority drivers, which are most relevant for
the ‘international’.
the Government in tackling national
security challenges at source: 5.5 The UK has and will continue to
benefit from globalisation. We have a
●● global economic trends and other global
strong interest in monitoring and
trends, including demography and
managing its development and in
migration;
maximising the opportunities and
●● climate change; addressing the challenges that it creates. In
Security in an Interdependent World, we
●● competition for energy; identified three sets of challenges which
●● poverty, inequality and poor continue to be important: the increasing
governance; and interconnectedness of and
interdependence within the global
●● ideologies. economy; the impact of technology in
reducing barriers between international
Global trends – the world activity; and the growth and mobility of
economy, technology, and the global population.
demography
A more global economy
5.3 Understanding and responding to
fast-changing global trends is at the heart 5.6 The pace of global integration has
of our strategic approach to national increased profoundly over the twenty years
security. As this strategy explains, since the Cold War ended. A range of
globalisation has created both factors have driven this. Within the world
opportunities and challenges. Alongside economy, the collapse of communism
opened up previously closed markets to
49
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
global trade, and the emergence of high audiences than ever before. This means
growth regions, particularly though not their impact may far exceed any required
exclusively in Asia, has greatly increased effort or outlay.
the capacity of world output. The
5.10 As well as computer technology,
accompanying leap in productivity, as well
developments in fields such as
as lower transport costs, has had a
bioengineering, nanotechnology, medicine
significant impact. In the current recession,
and the exploitation of space are
global trade flows have fallen, but in the
transforming the way we live. The
last two decades, the trend has been
acceleration of technical evolution is one
towards cheaper goods and high levels of
of the major opportunities, but also one of
global trade.
the challenges for national security into the
5.7 As the past year has demonstrated, future as criminals and terrorist groups
economic shocks can be quickly change their tactics to exploit the new
transmitted across national borders. There technology. The government is committed
is, therefore, a compelling need for to regular horizon scanning for
concerted global responses to global technological and scientific developments,
problems to aid economic recovery, in order to maximise benefits and minimise
including the promotion of trade. the risks to our national security.
Technology Demography
5.8 Economies and societies around the 5.11 The world’s population is growing
world are increasingly dependent on and is expected to exceed 9.1 billion by
electronic information and communication 205019. The global population is also
systems which remain vulnerable to ageing, especially in developed countries,
terrorist, criminal or state-led cyber attack. where the size of the elderly population is
The fast changing nature of already greater than the number of
communications requires active and children20. However, in many of the world’s
concerted international action to ensure poorest and most fragile regions, there is a
that communications assets are secure. demographic ‘youth bulge’, where as
much as two thirds of the population is
5.9 In a globalised world, scientific
under 25. Finally, there continues to be a
research is increasingly undertaken by
trend towards urbanisation and the world’s
globally dispersed teams. Developments
urban population is expected to grow year
spread widely and quickly, and information
on year, reaching a total of 6.4 billion in
and capability lies with small groups and
205021. These combined trends will impact
individuals. Further, the continued
on many of the drivers of insecurity.
proliferation of new technologies and the
rapid pace of change can be exploited for 5.12 There will be increased pressure on
illicit as well as legitimate means. Virtual resources. The Government’s Chief
actors can operate in cyber space, across Scientific Advisor estimates that, by 2030,
boundaries and beyond the control of state the demand for food will rise by 50 per
hosts. They are able to join together and cent, water by 30 per cent, and energy by
dissolve both at will and at speed, and close to 50 per cent. As the population
almost instantaneously reach larger suffering from a shortage of supplies
19 UN Population Division – UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2009) World Population Prospects:
The 2008 Revision.
20 UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2007). World Population Ageing.
21 UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2008) UN World Urbanization Prospects: 2007 Revision.
50
Chapter 5: UK National Security Framework – Tackling the Drivers of Insecurity
5.14 The economic slowdown is likely to 5.18 We are working actively with
have some impact on global migration, partners internationally to monitor and
though the effects will be complex and protect the safety and security of new
hard to predict. Global levels of migration technology. We continue to support
from less developed to more developed international efforts to manage global
countries are likely to slow temporarily and migration patterns and will continue to
some migrant workers may return to their manage migration in a way that is fair and
country of origin. in the interests of our economy.
22 UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2002) Population Division: International Migration Report 2002.
51
The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
52
Chapter 5: UK National Security Framework – Tackling the Drivers of Insecurity
developing countries build their resilience to climate change, including the Pilot
Programme for Climate Resilience under the Climate Investment Funds (the UK
has pledged £800 million to these Funds).
Building capacity at home
●● We have also achieved progress on domestic adaptation including a cross-
growth at home and also provide the very welcome and the G20 took an
necessary international leadership for important step forward when it reaffirmed
action. at the London Summit its commitment to
‘address the threat of irreversible climate
Future Challenges and the Longer change’.
Term Response
5.23 We have the opportunity, through an
5.22 This year is a critical window of
ambitious global agreement, to prevent
opportunity. The increased emphasis on
dangerous climate change. Global
climate change by the US administration is
emissions will need to peak and start a
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
significant decline within the next ten years document published alongside, are an
if we are to prevent temperature rises of important part of this. The first UK
over two degrees Celsius. However, some Climate Change Risk Assessment
impacts are already inevitable, both in the process will start in the autumn and will
UK and globally. Our work to mitigate the build on the Projections and further
impact of climate change, and to adapt to develop our approach to domestic
what is already unavoidable, will include: adaptation. Potential national security
risks will be considered as an integral
●● The UK will play a full part in
part of this work and will feed into the
preparations for UN negotiations on a
established medium term risk
new international climate change
assessment process which underpins the
agreement in Copenhagen in
National Risk Register.
December 2009. The Department of
Energy and Climate Change (DECC) will ●● Through our leading role in climate
shortly publish our key priorities for the research, both domestically and
negotiations including for emissions internationally, we will continue to
reductions, financing and technology improve our understanding of climate
development and international change and the actions we need to take
adaptation. to address it.
●● The Government will shortly publish its Competition for energy
Strategy for Climate and Energy,
5.24 Energy is a fundamental building
setting out policies to deliver our first
block of the global economy. Secure supply
three carbon budgets (to 2022) and
is crucial to ensuring stability and growth.
continue progress towards our 2050
Energy presents security challenges in a
emission targets as required by the
number of ways. Most obviously, as
Climate Change Act. The Strategy will
demand increases across the globe,
set out measures to cut UK emissions by
supplies may not be able to keep up,
34 per cent by 2020 and 80 per cent by
intensifying competition for energy and
2050 through investment in energy
leading to instability and conflict. Increased
efficiency and clean energy technologies
competition may drive prices higher,
such as renewables, nuclear and carbon
positively impacting on the economic
capture and storage.
power of producer states. However, higher
●● The Government will shortly publish its prices should also incentivise investment in
fourth paper on International energy production and help to drive energy
Development: Building our Common efficiency.
Future which will include plans to
5.25 There are other potential risks. The
strengthen support for developing
stability and security of our domestic
countries by building their resilience and
energy supply is fundamental to our
adaptive capacities.
day-to-day lives and this supply is
●● We will continue preparation for the increasingly coming from energy imports.
long-term domestic impacts of climate This can make us vulnerable to a number
change through our cross- of disruptive challenges. For example,
Government Adapting to Climate energy could be used as a geopolitical lever
Change Programme. The new UK by a state threatening to restrict the energy
Climate Projections, together with the supplies of the UK or our allies. The
actions set out in the summary motivation of the state might not itself be
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
linked to energy, but rather reflect wider Wider competition for resources
political considerations. We also know that 5.28 Competition for other natural
some terrorists aspire to attack critical resources such as food, water and minerals
national energy infrastructure. Other may be a significant driver of conflict,
scenarios need not involve malicious intent. especially in countries with
We have already seen that extreme poor governance. In Africa, some of the
weather events, such as the 2007 summer most enduring conflicts have taken place
floods, can threaten our energy in countries with significant natural
infrastructure. Accidents, such as the resources, such as Angola. Competition for
Buncefield Oil Depot explosions and fire of water resources can be particularly
December 2005, remain a risk too. destabilising and is set to increase in the
future as the climate warms. For example,
Competition for energy as a driver
by 2035 the melting of Himalayan glaciers
of insecurity could affect the water supplies of three
5.26 Global energy demand, on the basis quarters of a billion people in Asia. In
of governments’ existing policies, is addition, natural resources that can be
forecast to continue to increase by around easily smuggled out of a country
45 per cent between 2006 and 2030.25 (diamonds most obviously) have the
Although the world is far from running out potential to act as both a cause and a
of oil and gas, output from mature oil means of financing violent conflict.
fields is currently in decline. Remaining
resources are harder to find, reach or Competition for energy – the past
access and are concentrated in areas of year
environmental sensitivity and/or potential 5.29 Developments over the past year have
political instability. reinforced the need to understand and
5.27 The scope for disputes and conflict address competition for energy as a driver
within, and between, states could increase of insecurity. The economic downturn has
as a wider range of actors, with increased led to a contraction of energy demand.
projected demands for energy, compete for Lower oil and gas prices, coupled with
limited resources. There have been recent higher spare capacity levels, has increased
examples of civil wars where energy has our security of supply in the short term.
been used as a lever. Additionally, a state However, the fall in commodity prices has
that has concerns about its access to energy meant reduced or delayed investment in
resources could be motivated to threaten global energy infrastructure, particularly in
the UK or our allies. The impact of climate oil and gas. This could have security
change increases potential security threats implications for the UK in the longer term,
as states compete for access to energy and particularly when demand rises as the
other resources in previously ungoverned global economy recovers. An energy supply
spaces such as the Arctic. In a more crunch would cause significant price-rise
competitive energy environment, price risks and could exacerbate the potential for
security will also be more difficult to global instability and conflict.
achieve. 5.30 The cut off in supply of Russian gas
through the Ukraine to Europe in January
2009 demonstrated the potential for
energy to be used as a political lever. It also
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Chapter 5: UK National Security Framework – Tackling the Drivers of Insecurity
to help tackle the role energy competition plays in instability and conflict.
To address energy competition challenges and threats, we have:
●● Worked internationally and within the EU to develop competitive oil and gas
markets, increase physical security of supply and reduce price volatility. This
includes:
–– measures agreed at the London Energy Meeting to enhance oil market
transparency and reduce price volatility;
–– the European Commission’s second Strategic Energy Review; and
–– agreement of the Third Market Liberalisation Package to improve the
functioning of the EU’s gas and electricity markets.
●● Focussed on energy diversification. This includes:
–– working bilaterally with a range of countries, and through multi-lateral
organisations, to increase sources and routes of supply and to facilitate
investment in gas supply infrastructure to manage new imports;
–– championing new routes of supply in the UK and Europe; and
–– diversifying use of different energy types including facilitating new build
nuclear power stations, improving take-up of renewables to meet the new
EU 2020 renewable energy target of 20% and world leading action on coal
carbon capture and storage.
To tackle other energy security related challenges, we have:
●● Pursued bilateral and multilateral dialogue on a range of energy security
issues, including work to strengthen EU-Russia dialogue.
●● Undertaken an extensive programme of security enhancements at critical
energy sites as part of our wider work to counter the threat of terrorism.
●● Worked to reduce the vulnerability of our energy infrastructure to natural
hazards, as well as to disruption by terrorist acts, following on from Sir Michael
Pitt’s Review of the flooding emergency that took place in June and July 2007.
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
like other major consuming countries in reliance on foreign supplies of gas and
facing increasing competition for supplies, oil.
exposure to developments in the global
●● The Government’s forthcoming ‘Road
energy markets and the associated
to 2010’ document, which will set out
geopolitical risks.
our approach to the proliferation
5.32 The Government is adopting energy challenges linked to increased use of
efficiency measures to reduce the energy civil nuclear power.
intensity of our economy and moving to
more diverse sources of low-carbon energy. Within the EU
In the long term, this will reduce our ●● The Government will work to support
dependence on fossil fuels. Nevertheless, and drive further action at an EU
the UK will be reliant on imported fossil level. This must aim to strengthen UK
fuels for the foreseeable future. We will energy security, while increasing EU
therefore need to continue to ensure energy security as a whole. We will
secure and reliable supplies of oil and gas continue to press for the opening up of
in order to maintain the stability required EU energy markets, in particular
to enable the UK to make the transition to through the implementation of the
a low carbon economy. We will also need Third Market Liberalisation Package.
to address new security challenges linked We will also work to improve Europe’s
to this transition, most obviously the risk of ability to respond to potential future
proliferation due to an increase in the use supply disruption, including through
of civil nuclear power. revisions to the Gas Security of Supply
Directive. Finally, we will continue to
5.33 Decisions we make in relation to encourage the EU to increase the
energy will also have far-reaching diversity of the sources of its energy
implications for other drivers of insecurity, supply, in particular through the
most obviously climate change. The development of a ‘Southern Corridor’
Government will therefore continue to bringing Caspian Sea gas to the EU via
work internationally, within the EU and Turkey. These measures will complement
domestically to mitigate the energy risks action to move Europe towards a
identified, while undertaking an urgent low-carbon economy, which will also
transition to a low-carbon economy. This have long-term energy security benefits.
will build on the work taken forward in the
past year and includes: Internationally
●● The Malcolm Wicks Review is an
●● The UK Government’s forthcoming independent review of international
National Strategy for Climate and energy security issues, commissioned by
Energy setting out the Government’s the Government in 2008. The report,
strategic role within a dynamic market. due to be published in July will contain
●● We will set out a Renewable Energy recommendations on what further
Strategy, detailing the Government’s measures the UK might take,
action plan for ensuring that 15 per cent domestically and internationally, to
(our share of the overall EU target of 20 reduce and address the risks posed by
per cent) of our energy consumption our increasing dependence on imported
comes from renewable sources by 2020. oil and gas. We will also consider
Work to decarbonise the economy will whether the Review identifies wider
bring security benefits by reducing our national security implications.
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Chapter 5: UK National Security Framework – Tackling the Drivers of Insecurity
5.34 The Government will press for 5.37 Over one billion people live on less
improvements in international energy than $1.25 a day. Poverty, inequality and
governance through a process involving poor governance can both drive and
the International Energy Forum, the worsen the impact of violent conflict,
International Energy Agency (IEA), the terrorism, organised crime, climate change
Organisation of Petroleum Exporting and health pandemics, as well as make it
Countries (OPEC) and others. We have more difficult to mount an effective
been at the forefront of the IEA’s work to operational response.
reach out to key energy states like India,
5.38 The vulnerability of developing
China and Russia, but will push for further
countries has implications for global
progress in the coming period. We also
security and the UK, whether manifested
work bilaterally with a range of countries
through flows of illegal drugs and firearms
to build strategic energy partnerships that
into our cities, or the current terrorist
will enhance our security of oil and gas
threat. It is in our shared interests to
supply over the longer term.
support the efforts of all developing
5.35 The Government’s effort to tackle the countries to increase their resilience by
many and disparate issues arising from addressing poverty and inequality. The UK’s
both climate change and energy supply are commitment to poverty reduction and
now led by a single department, the achievement of the MDGs is not only
Department of Energy and Climate morally right in itself; it can also contribute
Change. This is one of the most significant to our shared interests, and to our own
changes in the machinery of Government security. More effective and accountable
in recent years and emphasises the states in poor countries will be better able
Government’s determination to tackle long to meet the aspirations of their citizens and
term and interrelated challenges. deliver basic state functions, as well as
making it more difficult for terrorist
Poverty, inequality and poor organisations to recruit and operate in
governance these areas. The UK is committed not only
5.36 Poverty can be a driver of insecurity to ensuring that our own development
through its contribution to conflict and assistance is used effectively to reduce
fragility in developing countries. Such poverty but also that the international
instability can have implications for the system provides the right support for
United Kingdom, for example by driving developing countries. The UK has a
migration patterns which can spread particular interest in contributing to shared
threats such as people trafficking closer to responses to shared problems because our
home. Recognising this, Security in an way of life is dependent, to a greater
Interdependent World reiterated the extent than in many other countries, on
Government’s commitment to meeting the the free movement of goods, money,
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs),25 people and ideas.
with a particular focus on fragile states.
25 The MDGs are eight specific goals to be met by 2015 that aim to combat extreme poverty across the world.
These goals were created at the UN Millennium Summit in New York in 2000.
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
More assistance to fragile states and regions where links between insecurity,
poverty and conflict strongest
●● DFID has significantly increased development assistance to fragile states over
recent years. In the five years to March 2009 the UK has doubled its aid to
conflict-affected and fragile countries to £1.2 billion per year, and is now the third
largest bilateral donor.
Poverty – the past year at 1.6 per cent in 2009 and 4 per cent in
5.39 The impact of the economic 201026 compared to growth rates of 8.3
downturn on developing countries is per cent and 6.1 per cent in 2007 and
serious. Growth for emerging and 2008 respectively. The World Bank expects
developing countries is expected to grow remittances to fall significantly during
2009, by up to 8 per cent.27
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Chapter 5: UK National Security Framework – Tackling the Drivers of Insecurity
5.40 The lack of social insurance systems have been badly affected by the crisis. This
across the developing world will force will help reduce the impact of the downturn
many poor and vulnerable households to on individuals but also reduce the risk of
sell their few remaining assets, often small social unrest. We will also give new priority
amounts of livestock or land. This might to ensuring the poorest countries build back
mean that they may not be able to take resilient and sustained economic growth.
advantage of the recovery when it arrives
5.45 DFID is also exploring new
and will remain in poverty.
approaches in fragile and conflict-affected
5.41 Prior to the economic crisis, countries, focused on peace-building and
developing countries were already state-building. This includes doing more to
contending with a massive increase in food provide justice, security and economic
commodity prices. While international food opportunities for the poor and new, joint
prices have come down significantly over Government strategies in fragile countries.
the past year, food insecurity in developing
5.46 The economic downturn is already
countries continues to rise in the face of
impacting on international aid
the global economic crisis, causing
commitments and progress against the
increased hunger and poverty.
MDGs more broadly. The UK has reiterated
5.42 These developments, combined with its development commitments, including
population growth, suggest the impact on increasing aid to achieve the UN’s 0.7 per
poverty will be significant. DFID has cent target and encourages others to do
estimated that 90 million more people will the same. At the London Summit, world
be in poverty (living on less than $1.25 per leaders reaffirmed their commitments to
day) after 2010 than had been previously development, including the provision of
anticipated. In these circumstances, the risk aid. Continued action is needed to ensure
of conflict is heightened. the downturn does not irrevocably damage
the development prospects of the poorest.
Future Challenges and the Longer
Term Response Ideologies and beliefs
5.43 Investment by the UK development 5.47 Previous sections discussed various
programme to achieve the MDGs and objective or external drivers which can
improve governance reduces the risks of motivate threats. But threats can also be
instability and conflict by helping motivated by human and social concerns.
developing countries to address many of its A particularly important category of threat
underlying causes. However, the current driver in the last century has been ideology.
economic context requires additional
support for developing countries, ensuring 5.48 Ideologies comprise a broad grouping
that we are using development assistance of many types of belief. For a variety of
for the right things and in the right way to reasons – political, economic, historical,
maximise our impact on poverty reduction. ethnic or religious – different groups of
individuals, some organised in states, and
5.44 During the economic downturn, we some non-states, have propagated
will work to protect the poorest by ideologies which can be hostile to the UK
increasing support for social protection. The and its people, and or to our allies and
UK is working with the World Bank to partners. In the twentieth century, the UK
design and finance a Rapid Social Response and its allies faced existential challenges
Fund to channel funds quickly to country- from the ideologies of Nazism and world
level social protection systems, where people communism.
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
5.49 We do not currently face such a in the 1990s – ultimately turn into a threat
severe challenge from any ideology. Nor to us.
do we form part of a culture or civilisation
5.52 Ideologies can be, and often are,
that is threatened by other discrete cultures
pursued by legitimate and peaceful means.
or civilisations. But ideologies can still be
The peaceful political pursuit of beliefs
motivating forces for threats which are
amounting to an ideology is not an issue
real, even if on a smaller scale than those
for national security. Indeed, the pursuit of
of the last century.
a belief in freedom can be a positive force
5.50 The current threat from international for good, as in Central and Eastern Europe
terrorism is driven by a violent extremist in the 1980s and 1990s.
ideology associated with Al Qa’ida. This
5.53 It is not always easy to determine
ideology regards most governments in
whether the actions of states to expand
Muslim countries to be ‘un-Islamic’ or
their influence and advance their interests
apostate; claims that these governments
are explicitly ideological; or whether they
are sustained by western states who are
arise from other reasons, such as fear of
engaged in an attack on Islam; and
other states, or differences in perception
considers violent action to be a religious
about the actions or aims of other states,
duty. So in responding to the threat of
or from rivalries between states.
international terrorism, we have to
Throughout history, there have been
consider how to address this ideology, just
examples of states seeking to expand their
as we addressed the ideological appeal of
power and influence at the expense of
world communism, in the UK and
other states, not necessarily for identifiable
overseas, during the Cold War. The
ideological reasons.
Government’s action against this ideology
is described further in Chapter 6, which 5.54 But whether actions are driven
outlines our counter-terrorism strategy. ideologically or not, there are always
driving beliefs which are important. This
5.51 We assess that apart from this
premise has three important consequences:
example, at present, there is no other
competing world ideology of sufficient ●● First, that in order to address any
force to drive national security threats to resulting threat, we have to tackle the
the UK or its people. However, regionally underlying beliefs: either by tackling the
based ideologies – particularly forms of ideology, if there is one; or by working
nationalism, religious sectarianism, or to change the beliefs of the state
separatism – can still affect the UK. Given concerned which are motivating its
our role as a hub for international activity, hostile actions. This is a classic role for
and for the movement and settlement of diplomacy;
peoples from many countries, regional
conflicts driven by ideology can potentially ●● Secondly, that it may also require
reach into the UK. Examples include appealing directly to the people of the
disputes in Sri Lanka, in Kashmir and in the state concerned, to try and build a
Caucasus. To date, the impact of these shared set of beliefs which will reduce
regional ideologies has not been enough the tendency to hostility. This requires
to constitute a driver of threat in the UK. action in the domain of public opinion;
But we must continue to monitor the ●● Thirdly, such rivalries can be made less
impact of such disputes, and to scan the potentially harmful if they are
horizon for other disputes which could in constrained within multilateral systems
time – like the early precursors of Al Qa’ida
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Chapter 5: UK National Security Framework – Tackling the Drivers of Insecurity
63
The National Security Strategic
Framework
l competition
for energy
Why? Who / what? How?
l poverty, inequality
beliefs
Threat Threat Threat
Threat actors
Drivers Actors Domains
l states
l failing/fragile
states
l terrorists
l criminals
l nature/hazards
Domains Multiple
l nuclear weapons UK actions departments
and agencies
l maritime
l cyber space
l space
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Chapter 6
UK National Security Framework –
Addressing the Threat Actors
6.1 The Government has developed a 6.4 Taken together, this provides a
comprehensive view of potential national comprehensive view of threat actors (those
security threats. It includes all those threats who may pose a threat), including state
which could cause a major disruptive and non-state actors, and accidents and
challenge to our country, and which could natural hazards. The National Security
prevent UK citizens from going about their Framework is accordingly structured to
daily business and maintaining their way of reflect these five categories of threat, the
life. four listed above, and civil emergencies.
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Chapter 6: UK National Security Framework – Addressing the Threat Actors
also be used for spreading disinformation 6.12 The UK’s response to the full range of
or attempting to disrupt critical services. state-led threats needs to be informed by a
sound understanding of the changing
6.9 As Chapter 5 noted, the potential for
nature of the threat; be forward thinking
one state to use its control over resources
and able to adapt to the future; and draw
to apply political pressure on another was
on all the capabilities available, including:
highlighted earlier this year. The gas
dispute that led to a disruption of Russian ●● Effective diplomacy and strong
gas flowing through the Ukraine resulted multilateral relationships
in widespread gas supply shortages in the We place a high premium on diplomacy
EU. Although not an imminent concern for and multilateral engagement to reduce the
the UK, we need to recognise the role that motivation of potentially hostile states. For
access to critical resources, such as energy example, the capability of our Armed
supply, may play in defining the global Forces, both as a deterrent and
security landscape in the future. We must operationally, is magnified greatly by our
work to ensure that we have in place leading role in NATO and the EU, and
adequate protection and mitigation through our other international military
measures. Given the interconnectedness of and security cooperation and development
global financial markets, we also need to programmes.
be alive to the possibility that hostile states
More widely, we are committed to working
may turn to economic or trade levers more
multilaterally to develop a strong rules-
widely to exert malign pressure on the UK.
based international system, not just to
6.10 The UK continues to benefit from promote economic growth and
significant inward foreign investment, development, but also to mitigate the risk
including in elements of its critical national of another state acting to damage our
infrastructure (CNI) and we are reliant on economic well-being in a way that poses a
international products and technology threat to our national security.
across all sectors. Foreign ownership does
●● Robust trading partnerships
not of course imply malign intent, nor does
Strong international trade links and
it generally mean foreign state control.
industrial interdependencies, supported by
Nevertheless, in some cases, there is the
Government where appropriate, also
theoretical possibility of state influence
mitigate the risk in this area.
being exercised through such means in
times of tension. The Government will In a trade-driven world, economic
keep such issues under review to mitigate interaction can contribute to reducing the
against this possibility becoming an actual motivation of potentially hostile states, by
vulnerability. allowing open international markets for
products and services to benefit all
Longer term response countries. These trading relationships also
6.11 Building partnerships and improving have the effect of enhancing the position
relations with other states, multilaterally of the UK and its economy.
and bilaterally, is at the heart of our
approach to foreign policy. The overall ●● Our Armed Forces
strategic lead on state-led threats therefore The UK’s military capability is fundamental
rests with the Foreign and Commonwealth to our ability to counter state-led threats
Office. However, the UK’s significant and we remain committed to retaining
military and intelligence capabilities robust, expeditionary and flexible armed
represent key elements of our response. forces for the foreseeable future. Our
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Chapter 6: UK National Security Framework – Addressing the Threat Actors
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
including Sudan and the Horn of Africa, efforts to achieve political solutions to
the Middle East and the Balkans as entrenched conflicts.
priorities for UK engagement.
6.19 It is not yet clear what effect the
Global instability and conflict – global economic downturn will have on
the past year conflict affected and fragile states or on
the international community’s ability and
6.18 Violent conflict and serious instability
willingness to address it. Economic factors
between and especially within states
alone are unlikely to cause new conflicts.
persists. Both state and non-state actors
But the crisis has increased the vulnerability
engage in conflict, and because the
of countries highly dependent on external
implications of intra-state conflict can
financing, commodity exports or
reach beyond the borders of a particular
remittances. And it is likely that it will
state, internationalised intra-state conflicts
further reduce the ability of weak or fragile
are also prevalent. The conflict between
states to deal with or absorb external and
Russia and Georgia in 2008 has shown
internal shocks.
how conflicts can suddenly erupt and
become an international priority for action. Future Challenges and the Longer
Israel’s invasion of Gaza in response to Term Response
Hamas rocket fire into Israel highlighted
6.20 We will improve and integrate our
the importance of sustaining international
early warning mechanisms for conflict,
trends analysis and planning processes
have provided support to conflict affected regions including Sudan, the Horn of
Africa, Sierra Leone, Democratic Republic of Congo, the Balkans, the Middle East,
Afghanistan and Iraq.
Strengthening UN capacity for conflict prevention, mediation, stabilisation,
recovery and peace-building
●● We strongly support the UN’s role in international peacekeeping and
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Chapter 6: UK National Security Framework – Addressing the Threat Actors
Global instability and conflict, and failing and fragile states: Government
progress on commitments in the past year (continued)
Strengthening EU capacity for conflict prevention, mediation, stabilisation,
recovery and peace-building
●● Many of the security challenges the UK faces are common to those of Europe as
a whole. This is reflected clearly through the shared approach to security in the
National Security Strategy and the European Security Strategy, first endorsed by
the European Council in 2003 and reaffirmed in December 2008. Both recognise
the key threats posed by proliferation, terrorism and regional and global conflict.
Both also acknowledge the increasing complexity and interdependence of the
threats and challenges we face, the importance of multilateral solutions to them
and the particular importance of climate change and competition for energy as
drivers of future insecurity.
●● Working with European partners we have secured agreement at the December
European Council on the creation of a single civilian and military strategic level
planning structure for European security and defence policy (ESDP) missions and
operations.
Enhancing ability to deploy civilians and increased civilian-military integration
●●The UK has also provided police and civilian UK secondments to key international
institutions including the UN, the EU and Organisation for Security Cooperation in
Europe (OSCE) in 2008/9. To underpin further our ability to contribute more
widely to international civilian missions and to operate nationally alongside British
or NATO forces, for example in Afghanistan, the UK is also developing a more
robust standby capability of civilians with different areas of expertise, including
800 stabilisation experts, a cadre of around 200 conflict and stabilisation experts
within the civil service, and a wider network of professionals willing to assist in
conflict affected environments. This capacity will be fully established by the end
of 2009.
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Chapter 6: UK National Security Framework – Addressing the Threat Actors
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Chapter 6: UK National Security Framework – Addressing the Threat Actors
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
6.35 A major component of our current structures and capabilities that both
counter-terrorism strategy seeks to address the immediate threat and that are
challenge the ideology that drives Al Qa’ida resilient and flexible enough to cope with
inspired violent extremism. Whilst terrorism and adapt to the threats we are likely to
will always be a method by which groups face in the coming decade, this must not
may seek to influence the political process be at the expense of the principles of the
through violence, we can challenge UK as a liberal democracy. These include a
Al Qa’ida’s distorted interpretation of Islam, commitment to individual privacy. As the
exposing its inaccuracies and shortcomings debates around changes to our laws,
in order to reduce the support and measures to enable surveillance and their
motivation which Al Qa’ida and associated relationship to civil liberties underline, this
groups rely on for their survival. is an ongoing challenge. To ensure that all
measures we adopt are proportionate to
6.36 The lines between terrorism,
the threat and necessary to the
subversion and legitimate dissent and
management of it, we have, and will
protest may become increasingly blurred.
maintain, strict rules governing the use of
This presents a particular and complex
surveillance and independent oversight of
challenge to liberal democracies. We may
the application of these rules.
face challenges from non-state actors –
whether motivated by ideology or not – who 6.38 The Government’s response to both
employ the methods and tactics of terrorists the immediate and the future threat is the
but do not conform to historical models of Strategy for countering international
terrorist groups. It is arguable that we are terrorism – CONTEST. In existence since
already experiencing this in Al Qa’ida and 2003, the Strategy’s aim is “to reduce the
associated groups that lack an obviously risk to the UK and its interests overseas
realisable political objective. It is important from international terrorism, so that people
that we challenge material and arguments can go about their lives freely and with
which create a climate of intolerance and confidence.” Details of this strategy were
distrust in which violence as a tool of made public in July 2006.
political discourse becomes acceptable, as
6.39 The Government believes that the
well as disrupting and prosecuting those
strategy continues to achieve its intended
who directly incite violence. We will not
aim. Over the past six years we have
undermine our commitment to freedom of
greatly improved our ability to prevent,
speech, which allows individuals and
detect and disrupt terrorism, protect our
organisations with extreme and even
people and the structures which underpin
intolerant views to express them, but we will
their daily lives, and to manage the
work to ensure that the hollowness of these
consequences of attacks when they do
views is revealed.
happen. However since 2003 both the
6.37 Terrorists can harness new threat and our understanding of it have
technology and develop new techniques evolved, we have learned lessons about
for communication and recruitment which our response and committed significantly
makes them increasingly hard to identify greater resources to counter-terrorism.
and disrupt. In such circumstances, various To reflect this changing context the
forms of covert and intrusive surveillance Government has revised CONTEST and in
become increasingly important. Yet while March published the updated version of
we must develop and deliver a strategy, the strategy (Cm 7547)28.
28 HM Government (2009) The United Kingdom’s Strategy for Countering International Terrorism available at
http://security.homeoffice.gov.uk/news-publications/publication-search/general/HO_Contest_strategy.pdf
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CONTEST
Delivery of the UK’s strategy for countering the threat from international terrorism –
CONTEST – depends upon a unique and ground-breaking range of local, national
and international partners.
Arrangements in the West Midlands are representative of the steps we have taken at
the regional level across the UK to deliver an integrated response. Under a regional
CONTEST Board, the Government Office for the West Midlands (GOWM), brings
together Home Office representatives, West Midlands Police, Regional Offender
Managers, UK Border Agency (UKBA), Youth Justice Board, Public Health,
representatives for Children & Young People and the Regional Resilience Forum.
A key strand of CONTEST, known as PREVENT, aims to stop people from becoming
radicalised. At a local level, we are working with communities to develop Prevent
projects which, under the framework of the national Prevent Strategy31, provide
effective support to vulnerable people at risk of radicalisation. Channel is one such
programme. Run in a partnership between the regional Counter Terrorism Units
(CTUs), local authorities, statutory and community partners, it aims to provide a focus
for public sector professionals and members of the community to refer individuals of
concern to a multi-agency risk assessment and case management system, bringing to
bear a variety of resources and expertise to counter radicalisation.
The Civil Contingencies Secretariat, in the Cabinet Office, is leading work to develop
partnerships at local, regional and national level in preparation for all kinds of civil
emergencies. The increased focus of this work on community and corporate
resilience will aid local groups and organisations to respond to terrorist attacks as
well as other common hazards; local groups and networks are best placed to identify
people who may be vulnerable, local places of safety, and local resources of skills
and material than can be used in any kind of civil emergency.
We also recognise that the expertise and knowledge held by citizens, industry and
the third sector is vital to delivery. The Centre for Protection of National Infrastructure
works with a range of Government Departments, the Devolved Administrations and
public and private sector organisations to provide integrated advice on physical,
personnel and electronic security to partners who own or operate infrastructure in
order to protect the UK from terrorist attack.
But we also need to work overseas, just as much as at home, in order to understand
the process of radicalisation, to reduce the vulnerability of our diaspora communities
and the countries and regions from which they come. Our response has increased
significantly in scale over the last two years; Foreign and Commonwealth Office
spending alone on Prevent overseas has more than doubled. It has also widened in
scope, with support from the Department for International Development and the
British Council, and more international work by the Home Office and the
Department for Communities and Local Government. The work of the Armed Forces
and engagement with and through international partners and multilateral
organisations are clearly also critical.
6.40 CONTEST governs the UK’s domestic CONTEST by stakeholders across the whole
and international response to the of Government, and reports on its delivery
international terrorist threat. It is organised against the Counter-Terrorism Public
around four pillars: Service Agreement (26). The 2007
Comprehensive Spending Review
●● Pursue: to stop terrorist attacks
announced increased resources for
●● Prevent: to stop people becoming counter-terrorism and intelligence.
terrorists, or supporting violent Counter-terrorism and intelligence
extremism spending is planned to reach £3.5 billion
pa by 2011.
●● Protect: to strengthen our protection
against terrorist attack 6.43 The Government believes that in
CONTEST the UK has one of the most
●● Prepare: where an attack cannot be sophisticated and comprehensive strategies
stopped, to mitigate its impact. for addressing terrorism in the world.
6.41 CONTEST is overseen at Ministerial 6.44 We now have a robust combination
level by the Cabinet Committee on of intellectual framework, capability, and
National Security, International Relations governance and delivery arrangements
and Development (NSID), chaired by the that will allow us to adapt and respond to
Prime Minister (this is the same Cabinet threats as they arise and provide the
Committee which oversees the National structures that will enable this strategy to
Security Strategy); the Home Secretary (or, operate coherently alongside our strategies
as appropriate, the Secretary of State for for related challenges (such as Serious
Northern Ireland) is the lead minister for Organised Crime, Civil Emergencies,
counter terrorism. Some specific aspects of Stability and Counter Insurgency in key
CONTEST are also dealt with by countries) within the overall approach set
subcommittees of NSID. out in the National Security Strategy.
6.42 Delivery of the strategy requires close 6.45 The attacks in Northern Ireland this
co-operation between a wide range of year show the continued intent of dissident
organisations and stakeholders: local republicans in the face of the political
authorities, Government departments, progress that has been made in recent
Devolved Administrations, the police, the years and which is supported by the
security and intelligence agencies, overwhelming majority of the people of
emergency services and the Armed Forces Northern Ireland. The Government’s
and international partners and multilateral response to the continuing threat from
organisations. Delivery is overseen by a Irish related terrorism is to continue to
CONTEST Board, chaired by the Director support the political process as the means
General of the Office of Security and by which all sides can pursue their political
Counter Terrorism (OSCT) in the Home ambitions by exclusively peaceful means
Office. Representatives from key and to provide the strategic leadership and
Departments and agencies attend the the resources in which the law
Board. Each workstream of CONTEST has enforcement and intelligence agencies can
a detailed delivery plan, identifying work to reduce the threat from terrorism.
responsibility for each programme, The Government’s response includes close
projected timescales, benefits and costs. cooperation with the Irish Government.
Within the Home Office OSCT is
responsible for co-ordinating action on
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Chapter 6: UK National Security Framework – Addressing the Threat Actors
6.46 The key principles for tackling the agendas can pay little heed to
threat from Irish related terrorism are geographical boundaries. This networked
drawn from those which underpin both migration of ideas is exploited to fuel both
the National Security Strategy and the terrorist and insurgent action. The transfer
CONTEST approach to international we now see of ideas, money, tactics and
terrorism but are applied to the specific personnel between ‘insurgent’ and
circumstances of Northern Ireland. The ‘terrorist’ groups is unprecedented.
additional investment, increased
6.50 Al Qa’ida uses local insurgencies and
capabilities, and improved structures we
instability to fuel its narrative of perceived
have put in place since 2001 to counter
injustices. We can expect this approach to
terrorism are available to respond to
continue. Local insurgents turn to Al Qa’ida
threats as they arise.
for philosophical guidance, finance, tactical
Counter-Terrorism and Counter expertise, and practical assistance (for
Insurgency example in creating sophisticated explosive
devices), and Al Qa’ida relies on indigenous
6.47 The UK is currently involved in
insurgents for support and shelter in
combat operations in Afghanistan that
ungoverned spaces. Personnel recruited
continue to expose the complexities of the
from local populations feed both local
modern security environment in which
insurgencies and wider international
insurgency and terrorism are woven
terrorist campaigns.
together. Similarly, what began in Iraq as
an insurgency became a theatre in which 6.51 The current terrorist threat to the UK
Al Qa’ida sought to attack not only the comes predominantly from the global
Coalition but Iraqi forces and civilians too, vision of Al Qa’ida and its associates, which
as part of an ideologically driven campaign in turn feeds and is fed by local
to undermine the progress of democracy insurgencies. The symbiotic nature of
there. insurgency campaigns and the most
prevalent terrorist threats today require us
6.48 In Afghanistan and Pakistan there is a
to design mutually supporting counter
complex nexus of terrorist and insurgent
insurgency and counter terrorism
groups with similar, though not always
strategies. The core of our approach to
mutually consistent and shared aims. The
countering international terrorism must be
continuing radicalisation of Afghan fighters
to resolve local issues and negate the
in Pakistan and the growing network of
grievances that feed terrorism: key to this
extremism orchestrated from the
will be our work to counter insurgency.
borderlands between Afghanistan and
Addressing these problems requires a
Pakistan are all good reasons to consider a
co-ordinated response from, and is the
holistic counter-insurgency and counter-
responsibility of, the whole of government,
terrorism approach.
and the wider international community.
6.49 Insurgencies in the last century were Countering terrorism and insurgency
largely fought within the boundaries of requires an approach that closely ties
single states (though not devoid of outside together traditional diplomatic, security
influence), and were rarely, if ever, linked and military capabilities and development
to wider acts of terrorism. Today, resources which are best placed to help
globalisation and the increasing address the underlying grievances. A
dependence of societies on international strategy that is any less comprehensive will
financial information and communication fail to match the vision, energy and reach
networks ensure that grievances and of the adversary.
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Chapter 6: UK National Security Framework – Addressing the Threat Actors
34 The Institute for Public Policy Research (2008) The Interim Report of the IPPR Commission on National Security
in the 21st Century – Shared Destinies: Security in a globalised world; and RAND (2009) http://www.rand.org
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Chapter 6: UK National Security Framework – Addressing the Threat Actors
35 EUROJUST is an agency of the European Union (EU) charged with improving judicial co-operation.
36 SOCA 2008/09 performance figures.
37 This figure is included in the SOCA overall cocaine intercept figure.
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Chapter 6: UK National Security Framework – Addressing the Threat Actors
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
process. The Government has also for a pandemic and publishing a suite of
announced some £2.15 billion funding for guidance to assist planners covering
improved flood risk management and management of excess deaths, school
resilience to 2011. closures, infection control, the judicial
system, local and health responses, as well
6.70 On pandemic ‘flu the UK has
as guidance to businesses.
continued to increase preparedness to
ensure we remain one of the best prepared 6.71 The Government also launched its
countries in the world – a position which pandemic preparedness international
has been validated by the World Health strategy in October 2008 which is the first
Organization (WHO). This has included of its kind and sets the priorities for the
stockpiling antivirals ensuring that every Government’s work with international
National Health Service Trust and Local organisations over the next three years.
Resilience Forum has specific plans in place
The remit of the Health Protection Agency’s (HPA) Centre for Infections includes
infectious disease surveillance, detection and diagnosis, as well as the public health
risks and necessary preventive and control measures; the HPA collaborates with other
international surveillance bodies, undertaking horizon-scanning to enable a rapid
response to any international health alerts.
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Chapter 6: UK National Security Framework – Addressing the Threat Actors
Future Challenges and the Longer body of work underway to address the
Term Response causes of climate change and to adapt to its
consequences. Whilst Government and
6.72 Whilst it is unlikely that the UK’s risk
emergency responders will remain the first
profile will change dramatically in the next
line of response to events, climate change
20 years, there are obviously factors which
will test the resilience of our infrastructure
may affect the likelihood of risks occurring,
and communities. All sectors of society –
our vulnerability to them and the potential
Government, public bodies, businesses and
impact they may have. Consideration of
individuals – will have a part to play in
the range of possible eventualities can help
preparing ourselves to adapt to those
us identify and build in the necessary
impacts which are unavoidable.
flexibility in our policy responses. Some of
the potential challenges are outlined 6.74 The increasingly networked,
below. interdependent and complex nature of
modern society, and the critical systems
6.73 As described in Chapter 5, climate
which underpin daily life will, over the
change and the international response, as
coming years, increase both the UK’s
well as the UK’s response to it will
vulnerability and the potential impact of
undoubtedly have a significant impact on our
civil emergencies. The interconnectedness
resilience over the coming years. In addition
means that a relatively small event, such as
to the primary consequences of severe
an electricity outage or loss of key
weather events, there will also be secondary
information and communications
impacts such as the potential for migration
networks, irrespective of the cause, can
and movement of people both within
potentially lead to a cascade failure, with
affected states and to the UK, and for
impacts on a wide range of critical services,
greater global instability to impact on critical
such as water, transport and gas, which
supplies and supply chains. There is a large
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
are dependent on that supply. The lack of and community resilience, which are
inherent resilience in many of our critical already underway, will build on this and
services, for example our reliance on just in should, when developed, help build the
time supply chains, will make us less able sort of socio-economic flexibility and
to bounce back from what might resilience the UK will need. The new work
otherwise be minor incidents. Dealing with by the Government to promote corporate
these widespread, complex and resilience stemmed originally from the
unpredictable events will require greater obligation placed on public sector
societal resilience than we have today. organisations both to ensure their own
business continuity in a civil emergency
6.75 The generic way in which the UK
and, in some cases, to promote business
currently prepares for civil emergencies, by
continuity in the community. There is
building capabilities to deal with the
evidence that resilience in the private
consequences of a wide range of events,
sector has also improved, but large gaps
provides a flexible and sound basis for
remain. It will be in all of our interests, and
dealing with the changing requirements.
it is our collective responsibility, to ensure
The multi-level, multi sector, bottom-up
that these gaps close as the risk of civil
approach to resilience planning means
emergencies grows. A particular focus of
that, wherever and whenever an
work, which will be developed from the
emergency occurs, capabilities should be in
Pitt Review and the climate change
place to help respond to and recover from
adaptation programme, will be critical
it. This broad approach is followed
infrastructure. The Government will publish
throughout the UK although some aspects
a framework and policy statement for an
are the responsibility of the Devolved
initial programme to reduce the
Administrations. Continued and new
vulnerability of critical infrastructure during
programmes of work to deal specifically
the summer of 2009.
with the highest, potentially catastrophic,
risks (such as pandemic ‘flu), working with 6.78 Similarly, a programme of work will
international bodies where necessary, are be announced later this year on
obviously also key to improving the UK’s community resilience flowing from the
resilience in the longer term. However, scoping work undertaken over the last few
there are additional measures which might months. The scoping work confirms that
help us respond to and recover from the the model of community resilience that is
challenges we face. most likely to work is that of self-selecting
communities working together to help
6.76 The range of longer-term challenges
themselves in an emergency, reducing the
outlined here all point to the need to
burden on the emergency services and
develop a greater understanding of our
other responder organisations, and
inherent and increasing vulnerabilities and
enabling them to focus their efforts on the
to build social and economic infrastructure
most vulnerable groups. But in both cases
which is resilient to a wider range of risks.
the programmes will need to develop and
6.77 The NRR, which will be reviewed and become embedded in society and with
reissued later this year, was the first step in citizens before they can really have effect.
providing advice on how people can better The Government will announce later this
prepare for civil emergencies should they year how it will contribute to community
wish to do so and incorporated more resilience schemes, through resources,
established business continuity advice. guidance, information, and
Programmes of work to improve corporate communication.
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Chapter 6: UK National Security Framework – Addressing the Threat Actors
6.79 The delivery mechanisms for civil 6.81 On a more practical level, the types
emergencies are well established and are of challenges we face now and in the
based on the Civil Contingencies Act 2004. future are likely to require timely and
It is founded on the principle of multi- resilient communications which can target
agency collaboration at all levels of potentially large sections of the population
Government (local, regional and national) at short notice. New communications
with Ministerial oversight both of wider technologies need to be explored to
resilience work and specific policy areas. consider whether they can meet this need.
One option which some of our
6.80 Over the past year, Ministerial
international partners are pursuing is cell
committees have overseen work led by the
broadcasting – a system by which people
Cabinet Office Civil Contingencies
can be notified of events and provided
Secretariat to ensure that all Local
with advice in a text message style format
Resilience Forums have multi-agency plans
to their mobile phones. The Government
to deal with some of the highest risks such
will undertake a review of possible
as flooding and pandemic ‘flu. These plans
technologies and work with international
knit together the roles and responsibilities
partners to consider whether there is a
of all agencies and organisations, as well
system which could support the UK’s
as the different tiers of Government, which
resilience in this way.
would be involved in responding to an
incident. The very development of these
plans helps to build trust and familiarity
between organisations, and in the longer
term these plans form the basis for
exercises to ensure each area is as ready as
it can be to face our highest risks. But,
there is always a need to review structures
and consider whether and where changes
might add value. One proposal, emerging
from the Pitt Review, is the concept of a
National Resilience Forum, similar to and
contributing, to the National Security
Forum but focused entirely and therefore
in more depth on resilience related issues.
The Government will establish this Forum
in the second half of 2009.
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The National Security Strategic
Framework
l competition
for energy
Why? Who / what? How?
l poverty, inequality
beliefs
Threat Threat Threat
Threat actors
Drivers Actors Domains
l states
l failing/fragile
states
l terrorists
l criminals
l nature/hazards
Domains Multiple
l nuclear weapons UK actions departments
and agencies
l maritime
l cyber space
l space
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Action in the Threat Domains
7.1 Having analysed why there are ●● domains of influence: in a globalised,
challenges to the United Kingdom’s information age, there are important
national security interests, and who and arenas which affect our ability to act
what threatens us as a result, it is against the drivers of insecurity. A
important to look at how and where strengthened international rules-based
those threats manifest themselves in order system is essential in providing the
to reduce our vulnerability to their impact. robust and effective frameworks
As well as addressing what drives required for an interdependent world.
challenges to national security and what Without it, risks can arise in various
threats arise as a result, we also look at the areas, for example, the use of economic
threat domains. resources, such as energy supplies, or
unjustified trade restrictions being used
7.2 There are different types of threat
as a hostile policy tool. We also
domains:
recognise that almost every element of
●● hostile and destructive capabilities: national security activity has an
this is a critically important example of important information dimension, be it
how threats can arise. A range of threat public support for military campaigns,
actors, both state and non-state, can or persuading those at risk of falling
pose national security challenges. In under the influence of terrorists.
some areas, the capabilities those with
7.3 There is no simple ‘map’ of how and
hostile intent could acquire would, if
where threats can arise. Various groups
used, have consequences of such
that can pose threats to national security
severity that the capability itself is an
can act in a number of ways and operate
area of specific risk that requires a
in a number of physical and technological
strategic and co-ordinated response.
environments and other domains.
Nuclear weapons and other weapons of
mass destruction is the most obvious 7.4 This chapter provides a framework for
example; our strategic response to the questions of
how and where threats can arise, and how
●● physical and technological domains:
we protect ourselves, in technological
there are a number of physical and
environments such as cyber space or
technological environments, which can
physical environments such our seas and
be characterised as domains where
borders.
national security threats can arise. These
include long established and familiar
domains, such as the land and maritime
environments, the air, and emergent,
technology driven domains like space
and cyber space; and
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
Our Borders
The UK already has one of the toughest borders in the world and the UK Border
Agency (UKBA), part of the Home Office, is currently delivering the biggest shake up
of border security and the immigration system in a generation. The new measures
that have been put in place or are in progress will for example, enhance our ability to
prevent entry to those whom we know may pose a threat to our national security,
monitor those who cross our borders, and refer to relevant authorities individuals
who are identified as they are pass through our asylum and migration systems as
potentially posing a national security risk.
In the UKBA we now have a single, strengthened border force that works very
closely with the police. The roll out of the UK’s biometric visa programme was
completed in December 2007 ahead of schedule and under budget. From November
2008, the UKBA began issuing compulsory identity cards to foreign nationals. By
requiring a person to register their unique biometric identifiers we can reduce
immigration abuses, illegal working, the misuse of public funds and identity fraud.
The new electronic eBorders system will enable us to count people in and out of the
country and to conduct checks in real time against crime and terrorism watchlists.
eBorders has already screened over 90 million passengers travelling to the UK, using
data received from approximately 105 carriers on over 185 routes, leading to over
40,000 alerts and more than 3,200 arrests. By the end of 2010 in excess of 95 per cent
of all passenger and crew movements (including UK citizens) into and out of the UK will
be checked.
Between July 2005 and the end of 2008, over 150 people were excluded from the
UK on national security grounds and a further 87 on the basis of unacceptable
behaviour. In addition recent changes to exclusion policy allow for the presumption
in favour of exclusion where an individual comes within the terms of unacceptable
behaviours. Further changes that took effect on 1 June 2009 will enable the Home
Secretary to exclude European Economic Area (EEA) nationals before they travel to
the UK.
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Chapter 7: UK National Security Framework – Action in the Threat Domains
●● To enable a shift towards low-carbon ●● Defend our country, our citizens, our
energy generation, while meeting Armed Forces and our strategic interests
energy needs, there is likely to be a from the threats posed by proliferation.
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
Republic Korea (DPRK), as part of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the
UK continues to put considerable pressure on these two nations to comply with the
will of the international community.
Strengthening the international nuclear non-proliferation regime
●● The UK has set a new agenda for non-proliferation, disarmament and arms control,
terrorism threats, and continues to work across government and with partners
internationally to reduce the risk of a successful attack.
An effective Chemical Weapons Convention
●● The UK is strongly committed to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).
Since the Second Review Conference in April 2008, two States Parties (SPs) have
completely destroyed their declared chemical weapons stockpiles. Good progress
has been made on expanding membership, with Iraq, the Dominican Republic
and the Bahamas acceding to the CWC this year, bringing the number of States
Parties to 188. Only seven countries now remain outside of the Convention.
7.9 The revised CONTEST strategy poverty. But there is also the risk of a new
recognises the specific threat of CBRN and dangerous nuclear era of new states,
terrorism. A recent, classified, strategic and perhaps even non-state nuclear
review assessed the current threat facing weapon holders. We will address this risk
the UK and identified specific areas for by renewing and refreshing the grand
further action with regard to countering it. global bargain at the heart of the 2010
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Future Challenges and the Longer
Term Response 7.11 The Government is determined that
NPT Review Conference will review and
Nuclear refresh this grand bargain and re-energise
7.10 In his speech on 17 March 2009 on
the commitment of the entire international
nuclear non-proliferation and
community to stopping proliferation, to
disarmament, the Prime Minister
realising the benefits of peaceful nuclear
underlined that nuclear energy has a vital
energy, and to delivering the NPT’s ultimate
role to play in overcoming the global
goal of a world free of nuclear weapons.
challenges of climate change, of ensuring
Because there is a strong inter-linkage
sustainable development and of defeating
between the global expansion of nuclear
38 The ‘E3+3’ is the group of countries which leads the international community’s engagement with Iran on
nuclear issues. The UK, France and Germany (the E3) initially took forward this engagement. The first meeting
of this group with the US, China and Russia took place in January 2006.
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Chapter 7: UK National Security Framework – Action in the Threat Domains
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Chapter 7: UK National Security Framework – Action in the Threat Domains
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
Piracy stems from serious instability within Somalia, exacerbated by the lack of
capacity for regional response. Any long term solution must take account of the
many complex issues involved, including the need to support improvements in
governance and the rule of law.
The international response to piracy has been effective in reducing risks to shipping,
and includes contributions from China, Russia, Japan and India, as well as many
NATO and EU nations. Over 30 pirate vessels have been destroyed or confiscated
and over 130 pirate suspects transferred for prosecution over the past year.
Since this operation was launched last year, supplies into Somalia have continued
unchecked and far fewer attempted acts of piracy have been successful. NATO and
the US-led Combined Maritime Forces have also made a significant contribution to
international efforts to tackle piracy and are working closely with ATALANTA.
The UK is also playing a leading role in the International Contact Group on Piracy off
the Coast of Somalia. This has included working with maritime industry to ensure
that best practice for ships transiting the region is effectively disseminated, working
with the military operations to ensure co-ordination, and starting work on capability
building in the region.
A long term sustainable solution will require concerted activity on many fronts. In the
meantime the effort to deter and disrupt pirate activity will need to be increased. We
will continue to work closely with the shipping industry to make it harder for pirates
to attack or gain control of ships, and we encourage and support more countries to
prosecute and jail pirates detained by international forces.
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Chapter 7: UK National Security Framework – Action in the Threat Domains
States Deterrence
Global Cyber
Trends Trafficking
Criminals Interdiction Internationalism
Climate Change
Pollution, Flooding
Nature MARITIME
Competition Resilience
for Energy
Failing & Piracy
Space
Poverty, Fragile States Stabilisation Ops
Threats
Opportunities
Multiple
UK actions departments
and agencies
UK characteristic/interests: densely populated island nation; worldwide pattern of seaborne trade. These flows
of energy and resources need to remain open and secure.
7.32 The UK has many assets it can bring maritime security challenges. This work will
to bear to both address threats and exploit clarify which elements pose the greatest
opportunities in the maritime domain. But challenges and which present the most
some areas of policy have developed opportunities for our national security. It
independently over the years as threats will prioritise our aims, assess our current
and related technology have evolved. capabilities and identify ways to fill any key
Given the ongoing importance of this gaps and remove duplication. We will work
domain to the UK, and the increasing with international partners where
interdependence of the threats and drivers, appropriate. A report with
it is vital that we take a more recommendations for further action will be
comprehensive overview of maritime completed over the next twelve months,
security. following consultation with the National
Security Forum and others experts.
7.33 To address the range of challenges in
the maritime domain, the Cabinet Office is 7.34 More specifically, in addressing the
leading a cross-government study that will threat from piracy off the Horn of Africa, we
bring together key elements of will step up efforts to train and equip coast
government and industry in a partnership guard, fishery protection and naval forces in
approach and across the full range of the area so that progressively they can
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The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom: Update 2009 – Security for the Next Generation
complement and in due course replace the including using it to assist in the pursuit of
international maritime effort. And in the our broader security policy goals. The
longer term, we will need to develop Government recognises that we need to
sustainable Somali-based solutions to this secure the broader benefits of this
problem, including supporting alternate engagement with the digital world: for the
livelihoods for littoral populations, individual citizen, for business, and for the
enhancing the ability of the Somali public sector.
authorities to impose the rule of the law,
7.37 With the increasing importance of
and more generally working with the
cyber space, however, comes greater
political authorities in that country to ensure
exposure and vulnerability to some of the
that the ungoverned space cannot be used
national security threats that interact with,
by those who might post a threat to our
and through, it. The asymmetric, low cost,
national security.
and largely anonymous, nature of cyber
Cyber Security space makes it an attractive domain for use
by organised criminals, terrorists and in
7.35 Millions of people across the UK now
conventional state-led espionage and
rely on the services and information that
warfare. Those with hostile intent can, for
make up cyber space. It is often an essential
whatever reason, use a variety of methods
component of many people’s jobs, and
of attack through networks, radio
many people rely on cyber space for
communications, supply chains and
commerce, research, and social activities.
potentially high power radio frequency
Modern business, Government, and critical
transmissions, to gather intelligence,
national infrastructure are similarly
spread false information, interfere with
dependent on this new domain of human
data or disrupt the availability of a vital
activity. Cyber space presents major
system.
opportunities for citizens, business and
Government alike and its effective 7.38 These same attributes also potentially
functioning is of vital importance. make cyber space a useful domain for the
UK to exploit in fighting crime and
Cyber space encompasses all forms of terrorism, as well as in the military sphere.
networked, digital activities; this
7.39 As with all national security threats,
includes the content and actions
we must be realistic about the risks, and
conducted through digital networks.
proportionate in our response. We all have
an important contribution to make to
7.36 The increasingly digital nature of our ensuring that we reduce those risks to the
society is recognised in the Government’s greatest extent possible, maximise the
Digital Britain strategy, which aims to make benefits, and do so in a way that
the United Kingdom the leading major safeguards the respect for privacy and civil
economy for innovation, investment and liberties that is enshrined in the values of
quality in the digital and communications the UK. Government and business must
industries. Digital Britain will bring forward work together to provide more secure
a unified framework to help maximise the products and services, to operate their
UK’s competitive advantage and the information systems safely and to protect
benefits to society. The Government’s individuals’ privacy. And citizens have a
ultimate goal is to reduce the risks from responsibility to take simple security
the UK’s use of cyber space to ensure we measures to protect themselves, their
can reap its full benefits for the UK, families, and others in society.
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7.40 That is why, alongside Security for identified as gaps in national capability that
the Next Generation, the Government is warrant early prioritisation.
launching the first Cyber Security
7.43 The Government is also establishing
Strategy of the UK. The Strategy
an operational centre for monitoring the
recognises the challenges of cyber security
health of cyber space, and for response to
and the need to address them. It sets out
cyber security incidents. This centre will not
the UK’s strategic objectives of reducing
only improve the information already
risk and exploiting opportunities by
provided to industry, organisations and the
improving knowledge, capabilities and
public – it will also work with the Office of
decision-making in order to secure the UK’s
Cyber Security to systematically identify
overall advantage in cyber space.
and prioritise new areas of work for
7.41 The Cyber Security Strategy aims to targeted investment as the cross-
build on existing work across government government cyber security programme
and industry by developing a more evolves.
cohesive and coherent framework. As a
7.44 In summary, the Government will:
result of the Strategy, the Government is
therefore announcing a cross- ●● establish a cross-government
governmental programme of key cyber programme to address priority areas in
security work, and establishing an Office pursuit of the UK’s strategic cyber
of Cyber Security to lead it. security objectives, including:
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Further detail, on these steps and others, is with international partners who are facing
included in the accompanying Cyber similar questions.
Security Strategy (Cm 7642).
Galileo
Space For some time, the UK has been
7.45 Just as cyber space underpins many working with our European partners
elements of our daily life, space also plays in the development of Galileo, a
an increasingly key role in modern society, Global Navigational Satellite System
although the dependence of many or our (GNSS), which has been developed
networks on resources such as satellites in with civil applications in mind. On
space is less generally recognised. For completion in 2013 it will give Europe
instance, while navigation is the most an independent GNSS capability and
recognisable product of the Global not only provide a boost to the
Positioning Satellite (GPS) array, (road European space industrial sector and
haulage companies, shipping and aircraft build up expertise and know-how in a
rely heavily on GPS), it also facilitates a developing area but also help deliver a
highly accurate and stable timing signal to wide range of UK and Community
many systems globally, including resource policies.
networks. The transmitted ‘pulse’ also
controls the regularity of the frequency
within the UK’s 50 Hertz electricity supply, 7.48 In many ways, the challenges and
the universally-accepted time-stamp opportunities the UK faces in space are
required in our global financial similar to those we are addressing in cyber
transactions, mobile phone coverage and security, and there is much we can learn
the synchronisation of radios used by from that process.
security services such as the police.
7.49 The Government will now undertake
7.46 This considerable and increasing a review of the strategic security of the
dependence on space makes us vulnerable UK’s interests in space, working with key
to any disruption but also presents stakeholders across Government, in
opportunities which the UK can use to its industry and internationally. It will consider
advantage. The UK need to understand the UK’s strategic approach to space, how
where and how it may be vulnerable and it underpins our security objectives and
what the impacts of this might be – then provide recommendations on how this
ensure we protect against them and should be developed to secure our interests
prepare for them. We also needs to think now and in the future. The review will be
strategically about how space can be used led by the Cabinet Office and will seek the
to support security and other aims and advice of the National Security Forum.
work to shape our approach and the
infrastructure and technology we need to Domains of influence
achieve it. 7.50 In addition to the long-established
and clearly understood physical domains,
7.47 Given the UK’s current reliance on
and newer technological ones, the
foreign-owned space assets this may
National Security Strategy also focuses on
require some fundamental and difficult
areas of human activity which are of
decisions both for Government and
fundamental importance to global stability.
industry. It will also require close working
The first is around public opinion, culture
and information – in short, the debates
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around the globe that affect the attitudes challenge and debate, as well as
of people and what drives the behaviour of addressing perceived grievances that can
individuals, groups, and nations. The colour individuals views of western society.
second is around the vital area of This is essential: Al Qaida are very
international organisation and how conscious of the importance of
multilateral structures are configured to propaganda for radicalisation, and have
facilitate shared solutions to shared made good use of the internet for this
problems in the global age. purpose. In our own communications we
recognise the need to engage with the
Public Opinion, culture and public on the counter-terrorism agenda;
information publishing the full CONTEST strategy this
7.51 This domain of activity is increasingly year was a key step in this direction.
important for national security. We live in 7.54 So the domain of public opinion, of
an information age. The world is culture, and of information and influence,
increasingly connected and transparent. is a vital area to be considered in its own
More than ever before the actions of right. The exponential growth of the
government are subject to scrutiny and Internet and cyber space has expanded the
comment, at home and overseas. range and influence of this domain so that
7.52 Almost every domain of national it is both global (because the internet can
security activity has an important connect almost all nations, communities
information dimension. Military campaigns and individuals across the globe) and very
must command the support of public localised (because people can choose
opinion, and secure the support of the through cyber space who they wish to
people amongst whom they are carried connect to). These ‘local’ communities are
out. Indeed some have argued that for not necessarily geographical, because
much military activity, the very purpose is people can choose to align to communities
to win the support of the people across the world.
concerned rather than some more 7.55 Gaining the support of people
traditional physical objective. Diplomatic around the world for our values, for our
activity is as much about engagement with vision of a secure, stable, just and
non-governmental organisations as about prosperous world based on cooperation
traditional inter-state diplomacy. between peoples and nations, and for the
Intelligence and other covert activity will actions we take in support of that vision, is
necessarily remain secret in detail, but a vital part of securing our future. These
must command legitimacy and support are powerful, universal values, irrespective
through a degree of openness and of race or religion. We must continue to
understanding in the aggregate. develop our capacity to express and
7.53 In countering terrorism, we have put communicate the values that inform our
increased effort into preventing people policy. If we believe in these values, as we
from becoming terrorists or supporting do, we should be confident in our ability to
violent extremism, as the strategic solution express and communicate them, and
to the problem of terrorism. This seeks to thereby to win support for them. We must
challenge Al Qa’ida’s ideology, which is therefore aspire to be effective in this
based on a distorted interpretation of domain, organising all our resources to the
Islam, exposing its inaccuracies and best effect.
shortcomings through better information,
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London Summit
Against the backdrop of the worst international banking crisis in generations, the
London Summit in April 2009 brought together leaders of the world’s major and
emerging economies, as well as key international institutions. As Chair, the UK took
a leading role in forging agreement on the appropriate response to these challenges
and to ensure multilateral commitment to taking the necessary action to stabilise
financial markets and enable families and businesses to get through the recession; to
reform and strengthen the global financial and economic system to restore
confidence; and to put the global economy on track for sustainable growth. We will
continue to lead this agenda through our G20 Presidency in 2009.
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as well as countering terrorism and violent with the Alliance to help them
extremism remain challenges for us and our implement the reforms necessary for
partners in the UN, NATO and elsewhere. eventual membership. France’s
With international partners, we are working reintegration into NATO’s military
to tackle the continuing humanitarian crisis structure has given further impetus to
in Somalia as well as the piracy, crime and NATO transformation and a key priority
extremism which are fuelled by it. Following of our engagement with both NATO
the Georgia-Russia conflict in August 2008, and the EU is to increase the European
we are working with both parties and with contribution to global security activity.
international partners to ensure greater
Within the United Nations:
stability in that region – through the
presence of the EU, the Organisation for ●● The United Nations (UN) remains a
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) vital part of the UK’s multilateral effort.
and the UN – the resettlement of civilians We have directly supported, through
and a long-term political process. With the Conflict Prevention Pool, the
international partners we are also working building of UN Headquarters capacity in
with the Georgian government to support projects which cover the spectrum of
democratic reform and closer Euro-Atlantic the conflict cycle. The UK has also
integration. provided police and civilian
secondments to key international
7.65 The UK is active across a broad range
institutions including the UN, EU and
of multilateral organisations aimed at
OSCE in 2008/9 and has shaped
strengthening global security.
ongoing debate on the development
Within NATO: of EU mediation capacity. There has
been continued UK political support for
●● The UK takes a leading role in NATO,
the UN Mediation Support Unit.
especially in the areas of transformation
and capability development. The NATO ●● In January 2009, the UK and France
Defence Ministers’ meeting in London launched an initiative in the Security
last September gave impetus to the Council to address the need for more
transformation agenda and led to an effective UN peacekeeping. This will
increase in deployability targets for help to ensure that peacekeeping
Allies’ land forces from 40 per cent to operations have clearer, tighter and
50 per cent. The NATO Summit agreed more realistic mandates and that
a Declaration on Alliance Security, which progress can be measured.
sets the rationale for NATO’s future
●● The UK is already working to
direction and underlines the need to
incorporate best practice into the every
make capabilities more flexible and
day work of the Security Council, such
deployable to respond quickly to new
as introducing benchmarks into
crises.
peacekeeping mandates, in order to
●● NATO has benefited from expansion enable more effective progress
and in the past year has welcomed monitoring; ensuring that mandates
Albania and Croatia as members. The better incorporate conflict analysis and
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia military advice; and provide for better
will be invited to join soon and Georgia consultation of troop and police
and Ukraine are in the process of contributors to peacekeeping
agreeing Annual National Programmes operations. We are also working to
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Chapter 8
Conclusion
8.1 This update of the National Security brings together the large group of
Strategy – Security for the next generation Ministers, heads of Agencies and other key
– sets out the Government’s assessment of parts of the national security apparatus
the range of national security challenges within Government within one forum for
we face across a broad range of drivers, consideration of strategic national security
threats and domains of activity. issues. Over the next year NSID will review
progress against delivering the
8.2 National security challenges arise in
commitments set out in the National
different ways, and within different
Security Strategy, and assess ongoing
timeframes. Some, like international
developments and the Government’s
terrorism or poverty, are already evident
response. NSID is supported by a dedicated
and require a continuing response. The
National Security Secretariat in the Cabinet
most significant implications of other
Office, which brings together a wide range
challenges, such as climate change, are
of national security related work across
unlikely to be seen within the next twenty
Government. The Secretariat will also lead
years but require action now to mitigate
the development of further important
the consequences. In the case of other
work on maritime security, security of
potential threats, like pandemic ‘flu, there
strategic interests in space, and other key
is no credible scientific way of predicting
studies, working closely with other
exactly when threats may arise and we
departments, partners and the private
therefore require a constant state of
sector. The Government will continue to
readiness to respond.
develop its horizon scanning capabilities,
8.3 The Government will continue to look building on the successful establishment of
objectively at the evidence to assess how the Strategic Horizons Unit last year.
challenges to national security develop,
8.5 We will continue to seek the fullest
and over what timescale. This strategy, and
possible range of external advice. The
future updates, therefore set the
National Security Forum will continue to
framework for targeting the resources
advise NSID on national security issues and
allocated specifically to national security
will be specifically consulted on key
activity in the 2007 Comprehensive
forthcoming work on maritime security.
Spending Review and in future spending
The Government looks forward to working
reviews.
with the new Joint Parliamentary
8.4 The National Security, International Committee on the National Security
Relations and Development Committee Strategy. We will continue to develop links
(NSID), chaired by the Prime Minister, is the with academia and research organisations
Cabinet Committee charged with oversight with an interest in national security.
of the National Security Strategy. NSID
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8.6 The aim of the National Security of objectives and plans for national security
Strategy Strategic Framework is to ensure activity. The Framework is designed to
that Government thinking on national address the specific challenges arising from
security keeps pace with a rapidly evolving our analysis of the position of the UK in
global context. As such we will publish the modern world. Delivering our plans
further regular assessments on the requires a concerted and co-ordinated
challenges we face, and on progress in effort within Government. It also requires
implementing this strategy. This will allow strong and enduring partnerships with
Parliament and the wider public to business, local communities, and
scrutinise the Government’s national international partners. And our approach
security activity and our assessment of to national security must be proportionate
security risks. and consistent with the cherished values of
liberty in a free society governed by the
8.7 By bringing together the full range of
rule of law. All of this is essential if we are
national security challenges and activities
to deliver the progress we need in moving
in a single strategic framework that looks
towards a more secure, stable, just and
ahead to the long term, the Government
prosperous world.
aims to provide the UK with a coherant set
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The National Security Strategy of the
United Kingdom: Update 2009