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Naresh Kumar
National Institute of Science Technology & Development Studies,
K. S. Krishnan Marg, New Delhi 110 012, India
Tel: + 91 11 2584 3102, Fax: + 91 11 2584 6640
Email: nareshqumar@yahoo.com
Alina Fodea
State Agency on Intellectual Property of the Republic of Moldova
Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
Tel: + 37322 400592; Fax: + 37322 440119
Email: alina.fodea@agepi.md
Abstract
resulting in the structural changes of the world economy. This has triggered rapid
economic growth in the coming decade, though it has posed several challenges in
countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China. In spite of studies show that there
may be a major shift in the global economic balance and it is argued that BRIC
various economic indicators such as GDP, GDP growth by sectors, import and export
and FDI inflows of Brazilian and Indian economy using forecasting techniques. Based
on analytical results future trends and potential of both the economies are discussed.
Over the last few decades the world economy has undergone a lot of changes
in geopolitical and economic terms, and in the location and distribution of production.
India, and China (BRICs) have attained an important role in the world economy as
producers of goods and services and receivers of capital. The four countries went
through major institutional transitions and changes in their economic structure in the
recent history. Though BRICs countries followed a sustainable growth path in their
economies having a big part of their large population are still not integrated in the
the twentieth century all these countries were inward orientated and followed more or
less centrally planned development strategies from the 1950s to the 1970s. Therefore,
they were replaced by gradual integration in the global economy in the 1980s and
1990s. In recent times, there is a surge in the global economy particularly in BRICs
The new economic order and good economic policies have accelerated
developing economy like China, India in Asia, Brazil, Russia, South Korea and South
Africa. In these countries a new economy is emerging and if the current growth
persists they may be the global economic player in near future. Studies show [1] that
in the next few decades, the growth generated by the large developing countries,
particularly the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) could become a much larger
force in the world economy than it is now—and much larger than many investors
third of the world’s growth has originated in these countries. So, the rise of new
powerhouse economies in the developing world can shift the equation of global
economic [2] order. It is also projected that the BRICs economies as a whole could be
larger than the G6 in future. Thus the BRIC thesis recognizes that Brazil, Russia,
India and China [3] have changed their political systems to embrace global capitalism.
Moreover, Brazil, Russia, India and China have long been a favourable destination of
emerging market investors. This is optimistic for economic growth and huge
investment may come to the BRICs in coming decades. The spur in economic growth
requires a broad analysis to have a right picture of the BRICs economic growth and
used to study innovation growth and forecasting but several studies have also been
analysis suggests that BRICs countries, particularly Brazil and India could become a
rose significantly from 1990 onward. Among emerging economies the BRICs
countries have been doing considerably well. The average economic growth rate of
BRICs in 2006 was about 8.3 percent far above that of the world. A brief status of
India
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After independence India grew at an average rate of growth relative to other
developing countries for a number of decades. In the beginning India managed to hold
a relatively high savings rate, which allowed the government to gather some resources
and capital. During the 1960s and 1970s India had an inward-looking trade and
strategy allowed the country to be self-sufficient but the costs of many goods for
consumers were high because the industries did not face competition from abroad and
liberalization approach wherein tariffs and import and export controls were relaxed.
This reduced the costs to import inputs and further reduced the costs of some
consumer goods. Thus the economic reforms resulted into real GDP growth, export
spending and an ever-expanding fiscal deficit. Foreign direct investment (FDI) was
also encouraged and moved into the country with the hopes for increases in consumer
demand. Economic growth picked up once again but the budget deficit was found to
for the high technology sector in order to encourage productivity and foreign direct
investment. As a result India’s GDP growth increased constantly and productivity was
also quite strong. Learning from the experience India further liberalised its economy
Brazil
and service sectors. As a result, Brazil's economy outweighs that of all other South
American countries and is expanding its presence in world markets too. However,
Brazilian economy grew, on average, only 1.1% per year as the country absorbed a
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series of domestic and international economic shocks by imposing proper economic
policies. The three pillars of the Brazilian economic program were (i) a floating
exchange rate (ii) an inflation-targeting regime and (iii) tight fiscal policy, which have
international trade the currency depreciated sharply after 2000, which contributed to a
dramatic current account adjustment. In 2003, Brazil ran a record trade surplus and
recorded the first current account surplus since 1992. Though economic management
has been good there remain important economic vulnerabilities. The bigger challenge
was maintaining economic growth over a period of time to generate employment and
make the government debt burden more manageable. Thus, whereas Indian economy
was performing well, on the other hand the Brazilian economy was facing several
economic shocks. However, during the 1960s and 1970s, Brazil successfully
allowed its industrial sector to develop and diversify, since it did not have to deal with
foreign competition with greater market power. This strategy also helped the country
strategy because they are costly to protect the domestic industries. Even after these
reforms were in place, foreign direct investment has been slow to enter the country,
and export growth has not been nearly as high as in the other BRICs countries. One
reason is that corporate taxes are quite high and there is limited financing for small
businesses, which constrains Brazilian exporters. The reforms reduced tariffs and
other trade barriers. Further, to overcome economic slowdown Brazil entered the
Mercosur trading bloc [6] in 1994 with Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, which
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moved the country further toward the global economy. A comparative picture of both
growth in Brazil and India, which are a part of BRICs countries. For this purpose
Product (GDP), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Import and Export are analysed
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and service sectors are also analysed for the period 2000-2005. For analysis of data
and investigation of growth pattern innovation growth models are used. The growth
models are generally applied to study natural growth phenomenon [7], commonly
called the natural growth model. In these models it is assumed that the population
grows at a rate that is proportional to itself. For example, if ‘P’ represents such
population then the assumption of natural growth can be written symbolically as:
dP
kP
dt
where ‘k’ is a positive constant. However, growth models have many applications
besides natural growth. Therefore, to study different trends of the economic indicators
linear, logistic, Gompertz [8], exponential and power models are used for comparative
y a bx
k
y
1 a bx
bx
y ke ae
y ae bx
y ax b
where ‘x’, ‘y’ are independent and dependent variables, ‘k’ is upper limit, ‘a’, and ‘b’,
are constants. These mathematical models have been found very versatile tools in
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socio-economic modelling in general and diffusion models in particular. In this paper
these models are used to investigate the pattern of economic indicators of Brazil and
India. The choice of these growth models is based on the fact that it provides a
convenient medium to describe growth phenomenon over time of any variable [9,10].
growth models namely (i) logistic and Gompertz models for GDP growth (ii) logistic
and power models for FDI (iii) exponential and power models for import and export
(iv) logistic and linear for trade balance and (v) power and linear models for sectoral
growth (agriculture, industry and service sector) are applied. For parameter
estimations Quasi-Newtonian iteration method is used with the help of SYSTAT [11].
On the basis of the parameters obtained projections are made upto the year 2012 AD,
Table 3: Estimates for GDP growth and FDI in Brazil and India
GDP growth (%) GDP growth (%) FDI inflow Brazil FDI inflow India
Brazil India
Year
Logistic Gompertz Logistic Gompertz Logistic Power Logistic Power
2008 2.16 2.16 7.23 6.67 14986.75 10273.70 3182.00 3958.19
2009 2.16 2.16 7.40 6.76 14986.75 9728.23 3182.00 4120.12
2010 2.16 2.16 7.59 6.86 14986.75 9259.79 3182.00 4288.66
2011 2.16 2.16 7.85 7.10 14986.75 8851.86 3182.00 4464.10
2012 2.16 2.16 8.10 7.55 14986.75 8492.49 3182.00 4646.72
Parameters estimates
k 2.16 2.16 0.802 318787.98 14986.7 3182.00
a -0.52 0.734 -0.795 11.583 -630936.6 32049.00 -209.029 2759.218
b 21.045 35.476 -0.003 0.001 16.758 -0.0518 70.721 0.040
MSE 14.526 14.526 377.00 377.68 46787.00 12283.00 3068.00 3052.00
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Table 4: Estimates for import and export in Brazil and India
Table 5: Estimates for growth of agriculture and industry in Brazil and India
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Table 6: Estimates for growth of service sector and trade balance in Brazil and
India
Year Brazil (Service) India (Service) Brazil (Trade India (Trade balance)
balance)
Logistic Linear Logistic Linear Power Linear Power Linear
2008 1.84 1.47 14.01 12.80 95330 70840 -40904.59 -32262.89
2009 1.84 1.35 17.09 13.68 115320 80100 -47020.38 -35743.89
2010 1.84 1.22 21.92 14.56 136980 89370 -53336.90 -39224.88
2011 1.84 1.09 30.56 15.44 160300 98630 -59841.58 -42705.88
2012 1.84 1.01 50.44 16.32 185240 107890 -66523.60 -46186.87
Parameters estimates
k 1.840 27.01
a 1.960 2.607 -0.995 4.887 1.800 -12.520 -2237.642 -933.936
b 35.434 -0.126 -0.0001 0.880 1.807 9.263 1.322 -3480.995
MSE 10.456 14.222 198.013 197.179 1943.38 1938.78 6980.00 6222.00
For comparative assessment projections are considered where Mean square Error
(MSE) is lesser.
Analysis indicates that both Brazilian and Indian economy is growing. In the
case of Brazil GDP growth rate may be constant in futuer however, both the models
logistic and Gompertz could not converge the empirical data. Conversely, Indian GDP
is growing significantly. It is estimated that by the 11 th fiver year plan the GDP
growth of India may be more than 8%. It is fascinating that FDI in India will be
increasing whereas it is expected that FDI in Brazil may decline in future. Moreover,
import and export are showing growing pattern in both the countries. Though, trade
balance in Indian case is negatively increasing while in the case of Brazil it is showing
positive increasing which is a good signal for Brazilian economy. Among the sectors
namely agriculture, industry and service in Brazil the agriculture sector seems to be
promising whereas service sector is growing marginally. In India service sector has
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enormous potential followed by agriculture and industry. Estimates show that industry
and service sectors in India may grow considerable which account nearly for 26% and
48% of GDP, respectively, while agriculture contribute about 25% of GDP. Thus,
India may dominate world markets in services and manufacturing. On the other hand,
in Brazil tertiary, secondary and primary sectors contribute about 57%, 36% and 8%
respectively. Hence, Brazil may too dominate in the tertiary and secondary sectors.
destination.
countries more than ever before. Economic forecasts of various studies [OECD, 1998,
& IEA 2004] predict that emerging countries, especially those of BRICs countries,
Asian, African and Latin American countries, particularly – the BRICs (Brazil,
with they have already elaborated national strategies in order to support economic
environment for sustainable development. It is also predicted [12] that the GDP of the
BRICs countries (China, Russia, India, and Brazil) would be half of the combined
GDP of the US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Britain in the future. Accordingly,
if the growth in these countries continues they may emerge as dominant economies in
the world. Although each of these countries is large, their economic growth would
bring them into competition with larger and wealthier economic blocs like the EU.
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partnership of equals who would bring complementary competencies on a common
platform for mutual interest. For example, while India dominates services, most of the
world manufacturing may be shifting to China. This needs further agenda for
cooperation among BRICs. In recent years, the Brazilian government has been putting
efforts into such areas as the agribusiness and eco-business sectors. Economic growth
in India, meanwhile, is led primarily by the service sector. There are expectations that
India will develop into a labor market that stably supplies outstanding human
resources and into a promising consumption market in the future due to India’s
expanding middle-class stratum, which has real purchasing power. For the future, to
cope with the population growth, the development of the manufacturing sector is
References
1. Wilson, D. and Purushothaman, R., Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050,
October 2003, Global Economics Paper No.: 99, Goldman Sachs Global
Economics (http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf).
4. Kumar, Naresh and Rai, L. P., Prospects of Industrial Growth in South Asian
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5. Kumar, Naresh, Assessment of Sectoral Growth of Indian Economy Using
6. www.cerc.com/pdfs/emergingbrics.pdf
London, 1978.
8. Gompertz, B., On the Nature of the Function Expressive of the Law of Human
10. Lekvall, P., and Wahlbin, C., A Study of Some of Assumptions Underlying
377, 1973.
11. SYSTAT, SYSTAT Inc., 1800 Sherman Avenue, Evanston, IL60201, 312,
864-5670, 1988.
12. www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf
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