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the Tide
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Tidal Power in the UK
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Turning the Tide
Tidal Power in the UK
Contents
Executive Summary 5
1 Introduction 15
1.1 Background to this project 16
2 Tidal Stream 35
2.1 Technology overview 36
2.1.1 Tidal stream devices 36
2.1.2 Current level of development 37
2.1.3 Future prospects 37
4 A Severn Barrage 69
4.1 Background 70
4.1.1 Chapter outline 70
6 References 149
Executive Summary
The UK has the potential to generate large amounts Exploiting our tidal energy resources will require
of clean and secure electricity from the tides. Using concerted action on a number of fronts. The tidal
both types of tidal resource – tidal stream and tidal power technologies that could be deployed are very
range – we could supply at least 10% of the UK’s different in both design and level of development.
electricity if fully exploited, around 5% from each Tidal stream devices are currently at the
resource. Such a substantial prize deserves very demonstration stage, and will require many years
close attention as part of much wider action aimed of targeted support to reach commercial maturity.
at tackling the twin challenges of climate change Tidal barrages, on the other hand, are a proven, but
and energy security. highly capital-intensive option that would require a
This report discusses both tidal stream and tidal strong lead by Government to be built. With tidal
range technologies, and considers a wide range lagoons, a lack of evidence means that the priority
of research, including the results of a public and should be filling information gaps through practical,
stakeholder engagement programme. It presents on-the-ground experience so that long-term viability
the Sustainable Development Commission’s can be better assessed.
position and recommendations on proposals for a However, all tidal technologies have a number
Severn barrage which, if built, would utilise a very of environmental, social and economic impacts that
large proportion of the UK’s tidal range resource, need to be considered. In particular, the impact of a
and could generate large quantities of low carbon Severn barrage on internationally protected habitats
electricity for over 120 years. and species, is of great concern.
There is minimal conflict between the exploitation In this report, the Sustainable Development
of tidal stream and tidal range resources, or between Commission (SDC) lays out a series of
the technologies that might be deployed. The best recommendations for Government on how to
tidal stream sites are in the north of Scotland, develop the UK’s tidal power resources. On the issue
with significant potential also around north Wales, of a Severn barrage, we consider the conditions
Northern Ireland, and the Channel Islands. The tidal under which such a scheme would be consistent
range resource is concentrated in the estuaries off with the principles of sustainable development,
the west coast of Britain, including the Severn, the and issue clear advice to Government on how this
Mersey and the Humber. should be taken forward.
In summary
• The UK should ‘stay the course’ in supporting • Government should consider the potential for
new tidal stream technologies EMEC to become a tidal stream development
and research hub to build on the success of
• Innovation funding in the UK must rise, with this resource
a commitment to support the development
of tidal stream devices at every stage of the • Ofgem and Government must urgently
innovation chain increase the capacity of the electricity
transmission system to accommodate
renewables over the long term.
In summary
A Severn barrage
A number of different barrage options have been information on a barrage proposal, including the
proposed for the Severn Estuary. This report considers potential advantages and disadvantages, 58% of
two of these in more detail. The Cardiff-Weston people across the UK were in favour of a barrage
scheme is one of the larger options proposed, and and 15% against. This support was mainly because
would have a generating capacity of around 8.64GW. of the perceived climate change benefits.
The Shoots scheme (which would run near to the two The results of the public workshops held in Bristol
Severn road crossings) is a smaller, 1.05GW proposal, and Cardiff (where more detailed information was
with an annual output of around 2.75TWh. provided) were also in favour of a barrage, as delegates
The SDC’s public and stakeholder engagement felt the benefits outweighed the disadvantages.
programme showed that 63% of the public in However, stakeholders were far less positive over
a national opinion poll had no knowledge of the net benefit of a barrage, with a large number of
proposals for a Severn barrage; 18% had only concerns raised over the perceived negative impacts,
a little knowledge. After being given summary particularly those affecting the environment.
Power output and cost summary for the two main Severn barrage options
Cardiff-Weston Shoots
Length of embankments 16.1km 4.1km
Generating capacity 8.64GW 1.05GW
Annual average electricity output 17TWh 2.75TWh
Contribution to UK electricity supply (2006 data) 4.4% 0.7%
Estimated cost of construction £15bn £1.5bn
2% 2.31p/kWh 2.58p/kWh
3.5% 3.68p/kWh 3.62p/kWh
Estimated cost of output at various discount rates
8% 9.24p/kWh 7.52p/kWh
(high case scenario)
10% 12.37p/kWh 9.54p/kWh
15% 22.31p/kWh 15.38p/kWh
Potential benefits
The assumption is that both barrages would be additional flood protection to low-lying land along
operated on the ebb tide, with the addition of ‘flood the estuary, and additional transport links. On
pumping’ to increase the total energy output. This flooding, a barrage would provide some additional
means that they would be generating electricity for upstream benefit against the risk of coastal flooding
around 7-8 hours on each tide, and output would (such as a tidal surge) and would counter the effect
vary within this period. As a result, the annual of rising sea levels. However, existing flood defences
output of each barrage is less than that implied by would still need to be maintained, and a barrage
their size. If built, the Cardiff-Weston scheme would would provide no additional protection from fluvial
generate 17TWh per year, which is equivalent to flooding events.
around 4.4% of UK electricity supply. This is the The SDC’s conclusion is that there would be
same level of output as would be produced by just substantial flood risk benefits from a barrage, but
over two conventional 1GW power stations. these are only marginal to the economic case for its
The high capital cost of a barrage project leads to construction. Without a barrage, it is very unlikely
a very high sensitivity to the discount rate used. At that the Environment Agency would seek to provide
a low discount rate of 2%, which could be justified this increased level of flood protection when it is
for a climate change mitigation project, the cost of viewed against all the other competing priorities
electricity output from both barrage proposals is for limited resources. The flood protection benefits
highly competitive with other forms of generation. of a barrage should therefore be seen as ancillary
However, at commercial discount rates of >8%, to a primarily energy-generating project. Options
these costs escalate significantly, making private for increased levels of flood protection through
sector investment unlikely without significant alternative barrage alignments or designs should be
market intervention by Government. valued in a way that is consistent with existing policy
The timing of output from a Severn barrage, on coastal flood risk and through a strict analysis of
regardless of the scheme, is not optimal. On the additional costs and benefits that would result.
average, both proposals would produce more power On the potential for new transport links over
at the times of the day when demand is lowest. the top of a barrage, the SDC believes that these
Nevertheless, electricity from a barrage would benefits may have been overstated. There is little
displace output from fossil-fuelled power stations, evidence showing how a road or rail crossing would
and would make a genuine and sizeable contribution actually be designed, and we conclude that this
to meeting the UK’s targets on renewable energy would present a number of challenges due to the
and on reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The SDC existence of one or more ship locks, and could be
does not believe that the variability in output from very costly. On the question of identified need, there
a barrage, which is highly predictable, would raise is nothing to indicate a strong justification for an
any significant technical challenges for the operation additional road link. The case is stronger for a new
of the electricity grid. As we showed in our 2005 rail link, to replace the aging Severn Tunnel crossing,
report on wind power, variability is something that but this would need to be considered against the
can be managed at very low cost. alternative option of building a dedicated rail bridge
As well as being an energy-generating project, or a new tunnel, neither of which require a barrage
a Severn barrage is often seen as a way to provide project to go ahead.
In summary
• Electricity from a barrage would displace • There would be substantial flood risk benefits
output from fossil-fuelled power stations, from a barrage, but these are only marginal to
making a significant contribution to the UK’s the economic case for its construction
renewable energy targets
• The case for new transport links over a
• The variability in output from a barrage is not barrage is unproven, and needs to be
a major problem for the electricity grid and assessed looking at the net costs and benefits.
can be managed at very low cost
In summary
• The SDC has approached the question of a • We have done this within a framework that
Severn barrage by looking at the conditions places a high value on the long-term public
under which its development might be interest and on maintaining the overall
sustainable integrity of internationally recognised habitats
and species.
In summary
• Development of a Severn barrage must • There is increased public and political space
not divert Government’s attention away for action on climate change – it is therefore
from much wider action on climate change, possible for Government to deliver on a
including the development of a more Severn barrage as part of a comprehensive
decentralised energy system and the and radical programme on climate change.
reduction of energy demand
Ensuring the public interest
If built, a Severn barrage would be designed to term revenues through inappropriate ancillary
generate electricity for at least 120 years. It would development. The SDC has identified a number
be a major addition to the landscape, and would of risks regarding the possibility of unsustainable
have fundamental environmental, social and development pressures as a result of a barrage
economic impacts on the surrounding area. These – for example, housing development in green belt
timescales emphasise the need for any barrage or environmentally sensitive areas, new transport
project to be designed and delivered in a way that infrastructure, negative impacts on local ports – and
ensures the long-term public interest rather than a the implications of these on local communities and
short-termist, profit-maximising approach. on the net carbon balance.
The SDC has a number of concerns over the We are concerned that a profit-maximising
apportionment of risks and benefits for any barrage approach would substantially increase these
scheme, particularly one that is led and owned by pressures, putting all the emphasis on the role
the private sector. It is very unlikely that a proposal of planning controls and regulation, rather
for a Severn barrage would ever come forward than integrating sustainability into the barrage
without significant Government intervention, and development itself. There is also the risk that a
a substantial funding package to pay for the initial short-termist approach could lead to the use of
research and evaluation. Once construction begins, sub-optimal construction methods and materials
the Government effectively underwrites the project (possibly leading to higher levels of ongoing
due to its size and political significance. This increases maintenance), as most commercial projects find it
the risk of moral hazard – i.e. that underinsured risks difficult to value adequately benefits that occur over
will be picked up by the taxpayer. the very long term.
Despite taxpayers and consumers taking on a Finally, development of a Severn barrage would
high level of risk, a barrage project led and owned require a highly coordinated, outcomes-based
by the private sector would not result in a fair approach to strategic planning and consenting
distribution of the benefits, and the public would issues. The organisations involved would need to
lose out. ensure that any project was integrated into local
A project of this kind also raises concerns over policy and planning frameworks. This favours an
short-termism. A private sector developer would approach where such considerations are firmly
require a high rate of return on any barrage project, embedded into the project developer’s aims and
leading to a strong incentive to maximise near- objectives.
In summary
• The long lifetime of a Severn barrage places and consumers could end up with all the risks
a very high emphasis on ensuring the public but none of the benefits
interest in the design and delivery of any
development • Short-termism in the design and delivery of a
barrage could lead to unsustainable ancillary
• The SDC has a number of concerns over the development and possibly sub-optimal
apportionment of risks and benefits for a methods and materials used in barrage
Severn barrage scheme, particularly one led construction.
and owned by the private sector – taxpayers
In summary
• The Severn Estuary is a distinctive habitat that • The EU Directives provide a clear and robust
is protected by national and international legal framework for achieving sustainable
designations – in particular, the EU Birds and development and therefore compliance with
Habitats Directives, which apply a series of the Directives is a central condition for a
tests to prospective developments sustainable Severn barrage
In summary
• The SDC believes that there is a strong case to • A Severn barrage must be publicly-led as a
be made for a sustainable Severn barrage project and publicly-owned as an asset to
ensure long-term sustainability
• Much wider and stronger action on climate
change is a pre-requisite for the SDC’s support • Government should consider a range of
innovative financing mechanisms that would
• There may be an ‘environmental opportunity’ maintain overall public control and ownership
available by linking a compensatory habitats of the project.
package to climate change adaptation
Moving forward
The SDC’s recommendations are a major challenge European Commission. As the SDC has clearly
to current Government energy policy. However, the stated, if compliance with the Directives is found
approach we prescribe would enable Government to be scientifically or legally unfeasible (which, in
to deliver a significant quantity of new renewable the light of our current investigations, we do not
energy without compromising our international believe it would be), then proposals for a Severn
obligations on conservation and biodiversity. barrage should not be pursued, as the development
Proposals of this scale require a new approach would fail to satisfy the principle of ‘living within
to decision-making. Government must avoid a environmental limits’.
‘decide-and-deliver’ approach, and not set off on a There is a strong need for a cross-Government
pre-determined course of action where important approach to this issue. As energy policy is a reserved
conditions and principles could eventually be matter, it is appropriate for the UK Government to
discarded. Instead, it must reflect on the wider take the lead, with close cooperation required
implications of such a decision, and engage widely between BERR, Defra and, critically, the Welsh
with stakeholders and public to ensure that their Assembly Government, as well as the relevant
concerns and opinions are taken into account. statutory agencies. There is also a distinct and
A crucial first step will be to obtain an early important role on strategic planning and economic
indication of the feasibility of compliance with the development issues that should fall to the South
European environmental legislation, and the cost West of England Regional Development Agency as
of achieving this. This should include an analysis well as the Welsh Assembly Government.
of whether there is an ‘environmental opportunity’ The SDC’s advice to Government is based on
available for linking the compensatory habitat our assessment of the current evidence, and it is
package to climate change adaptation policies, up to the Government to decide how to proceed.
and this would require early discussions with the However, the SDC would be interested in working
In summary
Introduction
This report by the Sustainable Development Commission (SDC) represents the first ever strategic overview
of tidal power in the UK. It looks at the potential of a wide range of tidal power technologies to make use
of the UK’s unique tidal resources for the production of reliable, low carbon electricity over the long-term.
It also includes an in-depth analysis of the tidal power resource in the Severn Estuary and the potential
role of a ‘Severn barrage’ from a sustainable development perspective.
The report draws on a wide range of existing and commissioned evidence on tidal power, together with
the results of a substantial public and stakeholder engagement programme. The SDC has used this work,
along with the expertise of its Commissioners and specialist staff, to develop a series of recommendations
for Government.1
Living within environmental limits Ensuring a strong, healthy and just society
Respecting the limits of the planet’s environment, Meeting the diverse needs of all people in
resources and biodiversity – to improve our existing and future communities, promoting
environment and ensure that the natural personal wellbeing, social cohesion and
resources needed for life are unimpaired and inclusion, and creating equal opportunity.
remain so for future generations.
We have used these five principles when detail. Finally, we present our concluding analysis
considering tidal power development more and our recommendations to Government.
generally, but also in relation to specific issues, such The SDC is a non-departmental public body
as the exploitation of the tidal resource in the Severn which was set up to advise the UK Government
Estuary. Although each principle does not apply and the Devolved Administrations on sustainable
equally to the issues surrounding tidal power, the development issues.6 As such, it is not our role
concept of sustainable development is particularly to recommend specific technologies or proposals
relevant when considering proposals that may have for development where these are subject to an
a wide range of environmental, social and economic identified commercial interest. So, for example, we
effects, both positive and negative. It is for this do not seek to make claims as to the benefits of one
reason that we believe the SDC, and sustainable technology over another, and the actual performance
development more generally, can add value in the and economic viability of different technologies will
consideration of such issues. need to be determined under the framework put
This report considers the tidal stream and tidal in place by Government. However, some of the
range resources separately (see below for an issues surrounding tidal power require Government
explanation), before going on to consider the issues to make a number of strategic decisions, and these
surrounding a possible Severn barrage in some have been the focus of our work.
Tides are caused by the gravitational attraction of the moon and the sun acting upon the oceans
of the earth as it rotates. The tide-raising force exerted by the moon is approximately twice that
of the sun. The relative motions of these bodies cause the surface of the oceans to be raised and
lowered periodically, according to a number of interacting cycles. These include:
• A daily or half-daily cycle, due to the rotation of the earth within the gravitational field of the
moon. This leads to the familiar occurrence of high and low water, which will be experienced
at different times of the day depending on location. In the UK, high and low water occurs
approximately twice daily (it is ‘semidiurnal’), with the time of high water advancing by
approximately 50 minutes per day.
• A worldwide 29.5-day cycle, resulting from the degree of alignment between the moon and
sun. This results in ‘spring tides’ and, seven days later, ‘neap tides’. Spring tides are those
half-daily tides with the largest range (i.e. highest high water and lowest low water), while
neap tides have the smallest range. Spring tides occur shortly after the full and new moon,
with neaps occurring shortly after the first and last quarters. For any given location, the
spring tide high water will always occur at the same time of day.
• A half-year cycle, due to the alignment of the moon’s orbit to that of the earth. This gives
rise to the largest spring tides, around the time of the March and September equinoxes, and
the smallest spring tides, approximately coincident with the summer and winter solstices.
There is also a 18.6 year tidal cycle that results in larger than average tides, requiring estimations
of tidal resource to be based on an ‘average year’. The range of a spring tide is commonly
about twice that of a neap tide, whereas the half-yearly cycle imposes smaller perturbations.
In the open ocean, the maximum amplitude of the tides is about one metre. The law of
energy conservation means that tidal amplitudes are increased substantially towards the coast,
particularly in estuaries. This is mainly caused by shelving of the sea bed and funnelling of the
water by estuaries. In some cases the tidal range can be further amplified by reflection of the
tidal wave by the coastline or resonance.
In combination with the ‘Coriolis effect’ and friction effects, these factors mean that the tidal
range and times of high and low water can vary substantially between different points on the
coastline. They also result in a large variation in the energy that can be obtained from the tides
on a daily, weekly, and yearly basis.
1.3.1 Two types of tidal resource that can be found in estuarine areas that exhibit a
large difference in water height (their ‘tidal range’)
There are two quite distinct categories of tidal between high and low tides.
resource: tidal stream and tidal range. The tidal The technology used to exploit each of these
stream resource is the kinetic energy contained resources is quite different. Tidal stream devices
in fast-flowing tidal currents, which are generally rely on capturing some of the energy contained in
found in constrained channels. The tidal range the currents passing by them, whereas tidal range
resource refers to the gravitational potential energy devices seek to impound large volumes of water
High
Medium
Low
Figure 3 UK tidal range resource
High
Medium
Low
The energy in a tidal current or stream is proportional to the cube of the water velocity.
This means that the available power in a tidal current is calculated using the cube of the water
velocity. This law means that even small changes in predicted tidal current velocity will lead to
large changes in predicted power density. It also means that there is approximately eight times
more tidal stream power during spring tides than at neaps.
Available estimates of the UK’s tidal resource allow The top UK sites for the generation of tidal
us to calculate the potential electricity generating power are shown in Table 1. This illustrates the large
output if all the best resources were fully exploited. percentage of the total UK resource that lies in the
Estimating the potential electricity output requires Pentland Firth and the Severn Estuary respectively.
a number of assumptions to be made on the Of course, it may not be possible to harness all
technical constraints of the device(s) installed, their the available resource due to wide range of potential
efficiency, and the effect of resource extraction on constraints, but these figures do give an idea as to
the remaining resource. This means that there is a the high level resource and the prime locations.
large degree of uncertainty in all resource estimates,
an issue which is discussed below.
Estimating tidal resources is a complex task, and level of practical resource (i.e. the resource that is
the methodology and data used to make these available after allowing for physical and technical
estimates is still in development. It is therefore constraints) will continue to evolve over time.
highly likely that our understanding of the actual
Theoretical resource A top level statement of the energy contained in the entire tidal
resource.
Technical resource The proportion of the theoretical resource that can be exploited
using existing technology options.
Practical resource The proportion of the technical resource that can be exploited
after consideration of external constraints (e.g. grid accessibility,
competing use (MOD, shipping lanes, etc.), environmental
sensitivity).
So, for a tidal stream site, the spring tidal peak velocity (m/s) relates to the theoretically
available resource, the area of water deep enough for the chosen technology relates to the
technically available resource, and the potential impact on shipping lanes and general navigation
relates to the practically available resource. A number of publications provide guidelines for site
selection criteria.
One major factor in determining the resource to around 13% of UK electricity supply from tidal
is the scale of the assessment undertaken. Using range alone. Furthermore, previous calculations of
a higher resolution will tend to give a much the practical resource may not have considered the
better prediction of localised current velocities, potential for electricity generation at shallow water
and therefore total energy output. However, most sites, particularly those outside the west coast
existing assessments have been done at a relatively estuaries, which may have implications for the
low scale of resolution, leading to the potential for potential of tidal lagoons.
significant refinement over time.
A recent report commissioned by the npower
Juice fund to assess the UK’s tidal stream resource 1.3.4 Timing of output from tidal sites
illustrates some of these uncertainties well.8
It predicts a total extractable resource of up to Tidal power is a variable and yet highly predictable
94TWh/year, requiring approximately 200,000 resource. The biggest influences on the timing of the
devices deployed across 11,000km2 of seabed (not electricity output are the twice-daily tidal cycle, and
more than 40m deep). Both this work, and the the 14-day spring-neap cycle (see Box 1). However,
Research Report 1, highlight a recent theory from the fluctuation in output of both tidal stream and
the academic literature that suggests the UK’s tidal tidal range devices can be accurately predicted over
stream resource has been under-estimated by a the lifetime of the installation.
factor of 10 or 20.9,10 These claims have not yet These variations are discussed below, along with
been supported by peer-reviewed papers, but they the temporal distribution (i.e. timing and location of
have understandably generated a lot of interest and output) of tidal generation if all good sites in the UK
seem deserving of further investigation. were developed to their potential. This information
On tidal range, it is worth noting that the needs to be considered in the context of fluctuations
estimation of resource presented in this report is in UK electricity demand, where demand peaks
related to the practical resource, and not the total occur throughout the working day and particularly
theoretical resource. A report by the World Energy towards the early evening, with lowest demand in
Council suggests that the UK might have up to the early hours of the morning (this issue is explored
50TWh of electricity generating potential from in more detail, in the context of a Severn barrage,
tidal range resources “if all reasonably exploitable in Section 4.3.4).
estuaries were utilised”11 – this would be equivalent
The magnitude of the tidal stream resource (which velocity sites, such as those around the Pentland
combines with wind effects to produce currents) area. When combined with the daily tidal cycle, peak
varies sinusoidally, with the highest speeds tidal output is around 90-100% of rated capacity
occurring at mid ebb or mid flood, and with speeds on a spring tide, dropping to a 15-30% minimum,
approaching zero at the turn of the tide. There is whereas peak output on a neap tide is between
also a very large difference between average power 15-40%, falling to a minimum of less than 10%.
output during spring versus neap tides, as shown In essence the output is continuously changing,
in Figure 4. This difference is accentuated at high albeit in a predictable way.
Figure 4 Typical variation in output from tidal stream power due to spring-neap cycle
100
90
80
Daily average power output, arbitrary units
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Day
Temporally, spring tide peak generation for is it badly matched. The timing of output from the
the Pentland (North Scotland) sites would occur Pentland area would to some degree be offset by
at mid flood and mid ebb at around 9am and 3pm different timings from other UK locations; however,
respectively, and then on the subsequent tide at the dominance of the Pentland resource, along
around 9.30om and 3.30am. These timings would with the fact that spring-neap cycles are the same
then shift by approximately an hour each day worldwide, means that it has the potential to
through the spring-neap cycle. outweigh any balancing effect from more dispersed
As a result, the Pentland resource is not ideally tidal stream generation.
matched to UK electricity demand – although nor
The timing of the tidal range resource is more generation, or both, and flood pumping is also an
dependent than the tidal stream resource on the option (to artificially increase the head). On the
operating regime used. For example, it is possible neap tide the electricity output is 25% that of a
to operate a tidal barrage or lagoon in ebb or flood spring tide, as shown by Figure 5.
Figure 5 Typical variation in output from tidal range power due to spring-neap cycle
100
90
80
Daily average power output, arbitrary units
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Day
Maximum electricity output is thought to be issue in relation to a Severn barrage can be found
achievable by operating a tidal barrage or lagoon in in Section 4.3.
ebb generation mode, possibly with flood pumping.
Generation times could be expected to occur around
three hours after high water and continue for around 1.3.5 Transmission system constraints
four hours. As a result, a total generation time of
just under eight hours per day could be expected. Electricity transmission system
Again, the dominance of the Severn Estuary
resource means that the output regime from large- The transmission system in Great Britain is made up
scale tidal power development in this location would of the 400kV and 275kV high voltage transmission
have the largest effect on overall tidal range output. network (plus the 132kV network in Scotland),
In general, the likely output characteristics of tidal and has the responsibility for transporting large
range plant in the Severn are not particularly well- amounts of electricity around the country to where
matched to UK electricity demand, although this is it is needed (see Figure 6). It is operated by National
not a major barrier. A more detailed analysis of this Grid Electricity Transmission (NGET) plc, who are
Figure 5: Typical variation in output from tidal range power due to spring-neap cycle
Sustainable Development Commission Tidal Power in the UK 25
also the owners of the transmissions system The transmission system feeds into the local
in England and Wales; in Scotland, the primary distribution system, which is managed by the
owners are ScottishPower Electricity Transmission 14 Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) on a
Ltd and Scottish Hydro Electricity Transmission Ltd. regional basis.
Figure 6 Electricity transmission network in Great Britain12, showing grid constraints on tidal power.
North Orkney
Networks ability to
exploit tidal power
South Orkney Very High
High
Medium
Low
400kV Substations
275kV Substations
North Channel 132kV Substations
400kV Circuits
Solway Firth 275kV Circuits
132kV Circuits
Mull of Galloway
Locations
Tidal Range Locations
Duddon & Wrye
Tidal Stream Locations
Mersey
Anglesey
The Wash
Lleyn Peninsula
Pembrokeshire
Isle of Wight
Portland
Cornwall
Start Point
The majority of generation plants in Great submitted bids to be connected onto the grid but
Britain are connected to the transmission system, most of these did not have planning permission,
with some 12GW of generation capacity connected which can take many years to achieve. A total of
to the distribution networks. The capacity of the 9.3GW of capacity is awaiting connection onto
transmission system to connect generation and the grid in Scotland and this is known as the ‘GB
manage the flows of electricity depends on the Queue’.
capacity of the network. The process of connecting At the moment, connection onto the transmission
to the network is based around the principle of system is dependent on spare capacity being
matching the Connection Entry Capacity (CEC) (the available, but an alternative approach could be
generating capacity of the power station) with the taken. As the SDC recommends in its report on the
Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) (the capacity of role of Ofgem in delivering a sustainable energy
the network to accept a new generator). Connection system,13 there is the potential to free up capacity
offers are made on the basis of an ‘invest and by operating a ‘connect and manage’ approach
connect’ approach whereby CEC can never exceed rather than a strict queuing system.
TEC, so new lines must be built to connect new
generation.
Implications for tidal power
System constraints and upgrades These issues pose significant challenges for the
connection of tidal stream projects, and this is
At present there are significant TEC constraints in the discussed further in Section 2.4.2. Existing capacity
north of England and Scotland which are preventing constraints and delays to network upgrades will
the connection of new generation projects. In order further delay the date by which tidal stream
to connect new generation, areas of the transmission projects could connect. If the current approach to
network will need to be upgraded to higher voltage transmission connection and management is not
levels (measured in kV) to increase the TEC. modified, it is unlikely that the UK will see any
The 132kV transmission line between Beauly and significant level of tidal stream connection between
Denny has been identified as requiring an upgrade to now and 2020.
increase the TEC of the network in Scotland. Ofgem For tidal range the situation is less significant,
has approved the funding required to upgrade the for two key reasons. First, tidal range resources are
line to 400kV line which would increase the TEC by generally located in areas where grid constraints
around 6GW, allowing for the connection of 67 new are less pronounced, and are closer to high capacity
renewable projects already in the pipeline. However, transmission lines and to centres of demand.
as a 400kV line will have a significant impact on Second, tidal barrages and, to a lesser extent tidal
visual amenity, consent for the upgrade has been lagoons, are likely to be larger, one-off projects
delayed awaiting the conclusion of a public inquiry. when compared to a tidal stream array, making
Figure 6 shows the areas where TEC constraints the incorporation of grid connection costs a smaller
would hinder the connection of tidal projects. part of the overall project cost and therefore more
With the introduction of British Electricity Trading manageable. Grid constraint issues related to a
and Transmissions Arrangements (BETTA) in 2005, possible Severn barrage are discussed in Section
the Scottish network became an integral part of the 4.3.6.
GB network. In anticipation of this, many generators
1.4.1 Current Government policy 1.4.2 The SDC’s position on energy policy
Energy policy in the UK has risen up the political The SDC has done a wide range of work on climate
agenda in recent years due to the twin challenges change and energy policy over the past few years,
of climate change and energy security. The UK and we have continually stressed the need for
Government has published two Energy White Papers an energy policy hierarchy: starting with energy
and two Energy Review reports in the space of six conservation, moving on to using energy more
years, and there are no signs that this increased efficiently, and finally the decarbonisation of energy
attention and activity will subside. Indeed, many supply. The potential for saving energy through
commentators now believe that energy policy is behavioural change and investment in new energy
likely to remain under a state of constant review efficient technologies is huge, and must be realised
due to the growing realisation of the scale of the if we are to meet our climate change and energy
problems we face. security objectives.
On climate change specifically, the UK In 2006, the SDC analysed a range of evidence
Government has proposed a new Climate Change looking at the UK’s potential for meeting its energy
Bill,14 which would bind future Governments to needs from low carbon sources. This identified
statutory targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas a very large renewable energy resource, and a
emissions, initially focused on carbon dioxide. This number of scenarios that could deliver a 60% cut in
Bill, if successfully implemented, has the potential CO2 emissions by 2050, without the need for nuclear
to fundamentally change the dynamics of climate power. A number of more recent studies have also
change policy in the UK. Climate change legislation shown the potential of low carbon energy sources
is also being considered for Scotland.15 to deliver a sustainable energy supply.18,19,20,21
The SDC strongly supports the focus on climate On climate change, we strongly support the
change and energy security, both of which have conclusions of the Stern Review,22 which identified
serious consequences for sustainable development three important policy elements for reducing
if not urgently addressed. The two main aims of the emissions:
UK Government’s energy policy are summarised in • Carbon pricing, through some combination of
the 2007 Energy White Paper16 as follows: taxation, trading and regulation
• Tackling climate change by reducing carbon • Technology policy, to support the
dioxide emissions both within the UK and development of a range of low carbon and
abroad high efficiency technologies
• Ensuring secure, clean and affordable energy • Removal of barriers to behavioural change,
as we become increasingly dependent on which is particularly important in ensuring
imported fuel. take-up of opportunities for energy efficiency.
The UK Government believes that these energy This report aims to reflect Stern’s
policy goals should be achieved through private recommendations, particularly in relation to
sector companies operating in liberalised energy innovation and the use of appropriate discount
markets. This means that Government’s role is to rates when considering climate change mitigation
set the policy and market framework for investment projects.
in new electricity generating capacity and In the UK context, the SDC has consistently called
associated infrastructure (including the framework for the early introduction of economy-wide emissions
for investment in renewable and low carbon energy trading to provide an economic framework for other
sources), with energy companies responsible climate change mitigation policies, including taxes
for investing in new capacity and for running the and regulation where appropriate. This would build
electricity grid. As a result, the Government does on the preference of the UK and other European
not directly build power plants or decide where or countries for a trading-based approach to carbon
when they should be built. pricing, as demonstrated by the establishment of
the EU and UK Emissions Trading Schemes over the
Wind
Solar
Coal
Nuclear
Gas
Hydro
Wave
Tidal
Bioenergy
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
There was a wide divergence of views between the On tidal stream technologies, the public were more
public and stakeholders on tidal barrages. The public cautious in their support, and could not see as many
tended to be quite supportive of this technology, and advantages as for tidal barrages. This was due to
were impressed by the large quantities of electricity the perception that tidal stream would not generate
produced, the long lifetime of a barrage, and some electricity at the same scale as tidal barrages (due
of the ancillary benefits such as proposed transport to its modular nature), its unproven status, the
“Tidal (and all other types of renewable “To pursue a truly sustainable energy policy
energy sources) should not be developed we should prioritise reducing demand and
and used unless they are done so as part encouraging a culture of energy conservation
of a more comprehensive renewable energy and efficiency. This must be accompanied by
strategy that reduces the profligate demands radical shifts in our attitudes and behaviours
on energy that our industries, economies, towards the use of energy resources.”
politicians, and the general consumer SD Panel Member
expects and demands.”
SD Panel Member
Don’t know
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
This chapter has summarised the UK’s tidal resource technologies, funding regime, and environmental and
and electricity generating potential, along with socioeconomic impacts. This section concludes with
temporal factors and the grid constraint issues facing a discussion of the opportunities and barriers facing
tidal power developments. It has also provided an the industry, and a number of recommendations for
overview of Government energy policy, and the developing this industry.
SDC’s advice on how this can be improved. Finally, Chapter 3 presents an overview of tidal barrages
the headline results of our public and stakeholder and lagoons, including a information on existing
engagement have been presented. barrage developments in other countries, and a
The rest of the report provides more detail on number of barrage and lagoon case studies. There is
How should the UK best support tidal power technologies
each type of tidal power, with a particular focus on a short discussion over the cost estimates available
proposals for a Severn barrage. for tidal lagoons, and a recommendation for further
The next chapter considers the potential for action. Issues related to the environmental, social
tidal stream development in the UK, looking at the and economic impacts of tidal range technologies
Tidal Stream
As highlighted in Chapter 1, the UK has an excellent tidal stream resource that is presently untapped.
A large number of tidal stream devices are in development, and there is a considerable degree of optimism
regarding the long-term outlook for these technologies, and their ability to make a substantial contribution
to combating climate change and improving our energy security.
This chapter begins with an outline of the the SDC’s analysis of the barriers and opportunities
different types of tidal technologies, their level of facing tidal stream technologies, along with some
development, and their long-term potential. It then suggestions for their resolution.
summarises the current UK policy context before The material below draws mainly on Tidal
considering the issues around the exploitation Research Reports 1 and 2, as well as the engagement
of the UK’s tidal stream resource, such as the work the SDC has conducted with stakeholders and
environmental and social impacts. Finally, it presents the public.
2.1.2 Current level of development of the wind industry. This is despite the fact that
marine renewables in general have received far
There are a large number of tidal stream devices less R&D funding worldwide than other electricity
in development, with a significant amount of this generation and low carbon technologies.
activity taking place within the UK. Research report There would be a number of significant benefits
2 includes references to 24 known tidal stream to UK leadership in the development of tidal stream
technologies. Although these are inevitably at technologies. These can be summarised as follows:
different stages of development, none of these • Export potential in a relatively undeveloped
devices has yet progressed beyond the prototype market
stage, with full-scale demonstration of some • The transference of skills both into the tidal
devices ongoing or imminent. After successful stream industry from the offshore oil and gas
demonstration, each technology will need to sector (which is facing long-term decline) and
progress to the installation of small (<5MW) and the offshore wind sector, and from the tidal
then large (<30MW) arrays, before looking to be stream industry to other marine renewables
installed as ‘significant projects’ on a similar scale • Development of a significant carbon-saving
to other renewable technologies such as wind technology – both for the UK and for the world.
power.25
Box 5 describes the installation of a demonstration
device in Strangford Lough in Northern Ireland. 2.1.3 Future prospects
One of the success stories of recent years has
been the establishment of the European Marine The most recent study of the long-term economic
Energy Centre (EMEC) in Orkney, north Scotland – a potential of tidal stream technologies was completed
case study of EMEC is provided in Box 4. EMEC is an by the Carbon Trust26 in 2006 as part of a wider
impressive example of using public funds to create review of marine energy, including wave power.
a generic resource to support and stimulate private The Carbon Trust concludes that initial tidal stream
sector investment. farms could generate electricity in their early stages
Despite the relatively immature status of tidal of development at between 9p/kWh and 18p/kWh,
stream technologies, there is growing enthusiasm with central estimates in the sub-range of 12-15p/
over their long-term potential. In fact, most of the kWh. These figures are well above the base cost of
technologies surveyed have come about primarily electricity, but this is unsurprising considering the
as a result of concerted innovation funding during current level of technological development and the
the 1990s, combined with a more recent injection low level of deployment implied.
of funding starting in 2001.26 As a result, progress Future cost estimates are done on the basis
to date has been comparatively quick and there of cumulative installed capacity, as this gives an
is strong potential for tidal stream technologies to indication of possible cost reductions as a result of
replicate some of the growth seen in the early years learning. This analysis uses ‘cost curves’ to estimate
Marine Renewables Deployment Fund Wave and Tidal Energy Support Scheme
(MRDF): This £50m fund was set up by (Scotland): A £13m fund set up by the
BERR (previously the DTI) in 2004 and has Scottish Government to provide grants
four components; the Wave and Tidal- and support to businesses to support the
stream Energy Demonstration Scheme, installation and commissioning of pre-
environmental research, related research, commercial wave and tidal stream devices at
and infrastructure support. The demonstration the European Marine Energy Centre in Orkney.
scheme accounts for £42m of the fund and
allows for the provision of capital grants and The Renewables Obligation works by placing
revenue support to technologies that are an obligation on electricity suppliers to source an
entering early commercial deployment. annually increasing percentage of their overall sales
from renewable sources, reaching 15% by 2015.
Renewables Obligation (RO): The RO is a The effect of the RO is to create a premium for
revenue support mechanism designed to renewable electricity generators of around 4p/kWh,
facilitate the large-scale deployment of thus stimulating investment in the deployment of
renewable electricity generation, thus leading lower cost renewables such as onshore wind and
to long-term cost reductions. landfill gas. However, the RO provides this premium
to all renewable generators, and would provide an
Research and Demonstration Programme additional source of revenue for pre-commercial
(Northern Ireland): The Secretary of State tidal stream devices. Furthermore, BERR and the
for Northern Ireland announced £15.2m of Scottish Government now intend to introduce
funding in February 2006 to encourage and technology banding for the RO, meaning higher
facilitate the demonstration of innovative cost renewables will receive a higher premium. It is
renewable energy technologies over the proposed that tidal stream devices would qualify for
following two years. double the standard level of support under the RO,
leading to a premium of around 8p/kWh.
Background
The European Marine Energy Centre was created to stimulate and accelerate the development of
prototype tidal technologies and help them towards commercial deployment.
The site selection process considered 18 different criteria, with Orkney being selected as the ideal
site due to an excellent wave and tidal resource combined with a national grid connection and
access to the appropriate skills base.
Funding
Development of the EMEC site was led by Highlands and Islands Enterprise and was funded by a
large consortium of public sector partners, including:
• Carbon Trust
• Department of Trade and Industry (now BERR)
• European Union, via the Highlands and Islands Partnership Programme (HIPP)
• Highlands and Islands Enterprise
• Orkney Islands Council
• Scottish Enterprise
• Scottish Executive (now Scottish Government)
The EMEC project was established as a result of a recommendation by the House of Commons
Science and Technology Select Committee in 2001. To date, the funding consortium has invested
over £15m in both capital start-up and development costs. This total funding forms part of
the EMEC’S ongoing budget, although the centre is expected to begin recovering some of its
operational costs by charging device developers for access to the facilities.
Facilities
The facilities of the centre comprise three sites in the Orkney Islands:
• the wave test centre at Billia Croo on the western side of mainland Orkney
• the tidal test centre in the fall of Warness off the outlying island of Eday
• the office and data facilities in Stromness.
The wave test facility became operational in 2003, with the tidal facility commissioned in 2006.
EMEC is the first centre of its kind worldwide to offer monitoring, evaluation and grid connection
to developers testing prototype marine energy devices.
The centre’s tidal facilities comprise five tidal energy converter test berths, which are situated
2km offshore in water up to 50m deep. There are also five sub-sea cables linking the test berths
to an onshore sub-station, and an observation point, a weather station and a data centre. Among
the services available to potential device developers are access to a grid connection, space for
monitoring, central office facilities and a limited environmental monitoring programme.
Projects
To date one tidal device (the Open-Centre Turbine by OpenHydro Group Ltd) has been tested
at the centre, with around six devices in the pipeline. Despite a slow start, developers are now
concerned that the centre will be at capacity within the next two years, meaning they may have
to wait for spare test berths to become available.
Planning and consenting regimes are in place across The Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment
the UK for pre-commercial marine developments. (DETI) has devolved responsibility for consenting
Frameworks for commercial scale development are marine energy development under the Electricity
not yet in place. The planning and consenting regime Consents (Planning) (Northern Ireland) Order 2006.
is complex, with projects falling under a number of Again, consent may also be required under the Food
different regimes – further details are available in and Environmental Protection Act, which would be
Research Report 1. considered by the Department for the Environment
This section provides an overview of the through the Environment and Heritage Service.
current regulatory and planning framework. The
SDC’s recommendations on getting the regulatory
framework right are discussed in Section 2.4.3. Renewable Energy Zone
Background
Following the demonstration of the company’s SeaFlow concept turbine off the coast of
Lynmouth, north Devon, Marine Current Turbines, a UK company, has developed SeaGen, a
1.2MW underwater, twin-turbine test device. The turbines are mounted on a vertically-moveable
cross-arm on a single supporting pole, which is drilled into the seabed and is visible above the
water. SeaGen is due to be tested at Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. Further information is
available from the project website: www.seageneration.co.uk.
Site selection
The Strangford Lough project was initiated in late 2003. The company selected the site for its
wave-sheltered environment, strong directional tidal flows, and proximity to the shore and local
technical services. Once installed, the turbine will be connected to the local grid and generate
enough electricity for approximately 1000 homes. The developer undertook consultation with
regulators, statutory consultees, the Crown Estate, the local community and other stakeholders
over the course of developing the project.
Environmental issues
The site is also acknowledged to be in an environmentally sensitive area and one of the key
issues for the project has been predicting and assessing the potential environmental impacts.
This has involved putting in place a comprehensive monitoring programme as part of the five-
year consent that has now been granted for the project.
Strangford Lough is an important international site for nature conservation and is designated
under EU Habitats and Birds Directives as a Special Area of Conservation, a Special Protection
The key environmental impacts from tidal stream Ecology (habitats and species)
development are those related to:
• ecology (habitats and species) A number of marine species and habitats in UK coastal
• landscape and seascape waters have the potential to be affected by tidal
• noise (airborne and underwater) energy schemes. These include birds, fish, marine
• seabed, sediments and currents mammals, plankton, and benthic communities
• water quality on the seabed. Terrestrial habitats may also be
affected by infrastructure works to accommodate
Impacts on other users of the marine environment the landward transmission of electricity.
– such as fishing and navigation – will also need to The main issues affecting habitats arise from
be considered as part of an environmental impact changes to the physical environment – for example,
assessment. In practice, these issues need to be changes in water flow and tidal mixing, wave
considered much earlier at a strategic level and in action, tidal inundation, patterns of sedimentation
site selection. The issue of conflicts of use in the and erosion, and disturbance of the seabed by
marine environment is discussed in Section 2.3, construction and cabling. These changes can alter
which considers the potential social and economic the character of marine communities, or lead to the
impacts of tidal stream development. displacement of species from feeding or breeding
Environmental impacts at the various stages of areas.
development will need to be considered, including: Fish and marine mammals may be particularly
• construction affected by the generation of underwater noise, and
• operation and maintenance the electromagnetic fields generated by sub-sea
• decommissioning. transmission cables. Collision risk is another factor
that will need to be considered for each device.
At the construction stage, the key impacts will Although the risk from turbines turning slowly
be related to drilling and piling activities, increased underwater may be low, this risk, and the potential
levels of noise, and increased activity and pollution behavioural changes of these species, will need to
risk associated with construction boats and activity. be assessed with care, and monitoring of installed
Direct effects on the seabed are greatest at this test devices will be needed.
stage. For tidal stream devices, construction of the There are also potentially positive effects from
device itself would usually take place onshore, tidal stream development for nature conservation.
followed by installation of the device and associated A tidal installation may function as a refuge area
cabling at sea. for fish populations as a result of reduced fishing
At the operation and maintenance stage, the pressure from the creation of ‘no-catch’ zones. The
device may have effects on water movements potential benefits of this will depend on the specific
and sediment, as energy is extracted from the impacts of a device, the scale of its deployment, and
tidal flows, and underwater noise and the turbine consideration of decommissioning implications, but
operation have the potential to affect ecology, fish this may offer an opportunity to integrate renewable
and marine mammals. energy generation (and a commercial activity) with
Tidal stream devices, once developed to full scale, nature conservation objectives.
can be expected to have a lifetime of around 20 years.
At the decommissioning stage, similar effects to
those identified for commissioning can be expected. Landscape and seascape
Further effects at this point may include disturbance
to any new community of marine organisms that has Many coastal areas have an important amenity and
become established on the device. natural heritage value for communities, visitors, and
The environmental effects of associated onshore recreational users. The placement of a tidal energy
infrastructure, in particular power cabling, will also scheme in waters close to the shore may have an
need to be taken into account, and can often be impact on the landscape and seascape of the area,
a significant practical issue during consenting (as particularly where the devices are surface-piercing
separate planning consent must be sought). structures. The level of impact will depend on the
Noise and vibrations travel significant distances Design and mitigation measures
underwater. Increases to background noise during
construction and operation may have serious effects Relative to tidal barrages and lagoons, tidal stream
on marine mammals and fish, depending on the devices are expected to have relatively low effects
level, frequency and duration of noise. Again, this on the environment.32 This will depend on the type
is an area where there is insufficient information and number of devices deployed, as discussed
on the potential effects of noise levels from tidal above. The greatest environmental effects can be
stream devices. expected to occur where arrays, farms or a series of
Depending on the distance from shore, farms are deployed.
climatic conditions and wind direction, noise from Possible mitigation methods for managing
construction, maintenance and decommissioning effects on the seabed, sediments and hydrodynamics
activities may also affect local communities. include sensitive design of base structures and choice
of location to minimise impact on sensitive sites.
The design of devices will also need to consider their
Seabed, sediments and current interaction with fish, birds and marine mammals.
It may also be possible to time construction and
The placement of tidal energy structures and their decommissioning activities to minimise adverse
associated cabling on the seabed will result in a impacts on sensitive ecological receptors (such as
change to the physical characteristics of the area, marine mammals affected by noise). Monitoring of
and may involve a loss of habitat. Fixed tidal stream test device installations will improve understanding
devices will have a relatively small footprint for of ways in which impacts can be avoided or
each individual device, varying in accordance with minimised.
whether the device is fixed or floating. For an
array of tidal devices, cabling arrangements will
be complex, effectively increasing the footprint of 2.3.4 Social and economic impacts
an installation. Cabling may have a significant but
short-term adverse impact on the seabed. At the As the tidal stream industry develops, the social and
decommissioning stage, cabling may be left in place economic impacts (positive and negative) are likely
to avoid further disturbance, or re-used with a new to represent some of the more tangible effects for
0.16%
0.14%
0.12%
0.10% Japan
Canada
0.08%
France
0.06% Norway
Denmark
0.04%
USA
0.02% Germany
UK
0.00%
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
The Stern Review also highlights the fact that innovation is a process over time and goes far beyond the
invention stage. The main steps in the innovation chain were summarised as:
Despite the obvious simplification of what is EMEC (see Box 4). This conclusion is supported by the
actually a highly complex process, it is clear that each fact that the MRDF has not yet had any applications
of these stages requires a different mix of policy for funding, against the nine projects (both wave
interventions ranging from direct research grants, to and tidal) that have been awarded funding from the
partnership funding, to revenue support, and most Wave and Tidal Energy Support Scheme in Scotland.
likely action to remove non-market barriers. The banding of the RO is certainly a positive
development for tidal stream technologies, but
is unlikely to stimulate increased activity in itself
Analysis of current policy as the level of support available is insufficient at
current levels of development. The RO is a relatively
Although the sums of money available to tidal stream blunt tool that was put in place to deliver the
technologies are quite small, the SDC received UK Government’s target for 10% renewables by
generally positive feedback from stakeholders on 2010, and the more recent target of 20% by 2020.
the support being given to the industry. However, we It was originally justified as a policy measure to
did hear a number of concerns over the assumptions deliver long-term reductions in the costs of these
behind the establishment of the MRDF, which technologies, but it was never intended to provide
appears to be slightly ahead of its time in aiming for start-up support to new technologies. Its importance
early commercial deployment. With devices still at to tidal stream devices over the next 5-10 years is
the research and demonstration stages, the Scottish therefore limited, though its introduction provides
Government scheme has been roundly welcomed the opportunity for BERR to reassess how to use its
in helping to fill a gap in the support landscape by MRDF funding scheme in a more targeted manner.
providing support linked to the highly successful
Tidal Range
As with tidal stream, the UK has an excellent tidal range resource that is currently unexploited. A large
percentage of this resource is located in the Severn Estuary, but there is also potential for energy extraction
in other western estuaries, and potential from shallow water areas with a reasonably high tidal range.
This chapter considers some of the generic issues of tidal barrages and lagoons, the sheer scale of the
related to tidal barrages and lagoons, and contains a Severn Estuary resource, and the SDC’s remit for this
number of tidal range case studies from around the project.
UK. A more detailed discussion of the issues raised The material below draws mainly on Tidal
by the exploitation of the tidal range resource – in Research Reports 3, 4 and 5, as well as the
particular, the environmental, social and economic engagement work the SDC has conducted with
impacts – can be found in Chapter 4 in relation to a stakeholders and the public.
Severn barrage. This reflects the site-specific nature
Various tidal lagoon proposals have been put forward for development in the Severn Estuary,
including the Russell Lagoons concept, re-evaluated as part of Research Report 4, and the
Swansea Lagoon proposal being promoted by the company Tidal Electric.
Our research suggests that the Russell Lagoon concept for three land-bordered tidal lagoons in
the Severn Estuary (see Figure 12) is unlikely be viable when compared to the alternative of a
barrage. The energy captured would be considerable at around 6,480GWh per year, but this is
less than half the estimated production from the Cardiff-Weston barrage scheme. Meanwhile,
the costs appear to be higher due to the longer barriers that are required. It is also possible that
a Russell Lagoon-type development would have a similar or even more disruptive impact on the
estuarine environment and possibly shipping, due to the channelling effect it would have on tidal
currents passing between the three lagoons. Such impacts would put the Russell Lagoons in a
similar category to a Severn barrage in respect of the environmental legislation – this is discussed
in more detail in Chapter 4.
The much smaller 50MW proposal for a tidal lagoon in Swansea Bay (see Figure 13) is possibly
more realistic, although there are a number of uncertainties over the economics as discussed
below. Estimates for annual electricity output for such a scheme range from 124-187GWh per
year, putting it on a similar scale to a medium-sized onshore wind project.
Gloucester
Newport
Cardiff
Bristol
Weston Super-Mare
Figure 13 Proposed position of the Swansea Bay tidal lagoon
Swansea
Dredged to 2m
Dredged to 4.2m
Turbine House
The impact of these assumptions is illustrated a DTI-funded study. A more recent estimate by RWE
well by comparing estimates of the capital cost npower45 for a similarly-sized scheme in Liverpool
of a tidal lagoon in Swansea Bay, as proposed by Bay has a capital cost range of £108m-£135m.
Tidal Electric Ltd (see Box 6 for further information). Such differences in capital cost estimates lead to
The developer estimates a total capital cost of very large variations in estimates for the unit cost of
£81.5m, compared to the £255m estimate given by electricity output – see Table 2.46
Table 2 Unit cost of output estimates for proposed Swansea Bay tidal lagoon project
The SDC does not believe there is enough potential for cost reductions over time as a result of
information to determine which cost estimate for innovation are limited (the technologies utilised can
this first-of-a-kind project is most accurate due to be classified as ‘mature’), there could be substantial
the lack of any practical experience. Although the opportunities for ‘learning by doing’.
Wall visible at high tide Lagoon wall will ‘overtop’ with a very high tide or during a storm without affecting performance
Rock armour
High tide
Sea bed
Mersey Estuary
The Mersey Estuary has a mean spring tidal range interest as a result of a recent study commissioned
of 8m and a potential resource of 1,400GWh by Peel Environmental Ltd in association with the
per year. It has been the subject of a number of North West Regional Development Agency (NWDA)
studies looking at the potential for a tidal barrage, and the Mersey Basin Campaign.48 The SDC has
and culminating in a report by the Mersey Barrage considered this new work, along with the summary
Company in 1992. However, the proposal was never of existing proposals provided in Research Report 5,
progressed further, although there is now renewed in preparing this brief summary.
Zone 1
Liverpool
Birkenhead
Zo
en
2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Table 3 Comparison of main tidal power options for the Mersey Estuary
(source: Peel Environmental Ltd)
Like the Severn, the Mersey is a highly protected The NWDA-commissioned study identifies the
estuary, and has international designations as barrage proposals as the most disruptive in terms
a SPA and Ramsar site and a number of national of environmental impact, but detailed up-to-date
designations – see NWDA study48 for further details. analysis has not been conducted in relation to how
Liverpool Bay, Mersey Narrows, and the North Wirral a scheme would impact on the protected features
Foreshore are all proposed SPAs. The estuary houses and species.
a number of intertidal and subtidal habitats that The Mersey is also an important shipping corridor,
support populations of invertebrates, although these and although a barrage could be constructed
habitats are less pronounced in the Mersey narrows, upstream of Liverpool port, it would impact on
where the tidal stream resource is strongest. access to Garston, Eastham Locks, the QEII Oil Lock
The Mersey has seen considerable growth in fish and the Manchester Ship Canal. The studies done by
and bird species as changes to industrial practices the Mersey Barrage Company involved a detailed
have made the river less polluted, and there are analysis of ship movements based on shipping traffic
over 40 species of fish, and large populations of from 1990, which included conditions predicted by
waterbirds, which could potentially be displaced by the hydraulic model. The results of this showed
any proposed project. average increases in voyage times of around 40
A Severn Barrage
4.1 Background
This chapter will focus on proposals for a Severn Government needs to develop a long-term position
barrage50 from a sustainable development on this issue. The SDC believes that this position
perspective. This focus is in recognition of the SDC’s must be informed by the principles of sustainable
remit for this project, which specifically calls on the development.
SDC to consider the resource in the Severn Estuary This section draws primarily on Research Report
and the issue of a Severn barrage. A Severn barrage, 3, which goes into more detail on many of the issues
if developed, would be just one renewable energy discussed here.
project among the many that will be required.
However, the SDC believes that our approach on
this issue is justified by the high concentration of 4.1.1 Chapter outline
tidal range resource, the unprecedented scale of
the proposals, and the need for Government to Our analysis begins with a strategic overview of the
take a strategic decision on whether or not further Severn estuary tidal resource, including a summary
investigation should take place. of the various barrage options, followed by a look
The need for a strategic decision to be made on at the alternatives to a barrage and the conflicts in
this issue is based on our recognition that a number of resource utilisation that emerge. We then consider
factors are at play. The 2006 Energy Review referred the contribution that the two primary barrage
in particular to concerns about the environmental options might make to UK electricity supply, and
impact of a Severn barrage, and this issue has been the characteristics of electricity output and the
a key criterion in our review. The Severn Estuary implications for grid management. This is followed
has the second highest tidal range of any estuary by a summary of the evidence we have collected
in the world, and the unique hypertidal habitats it on the carbon payback of the two barrage options,
supports are protected by UK and international law. and the estimated contribution they could make to
These important protections point to the need to reducing carbon dioxide emissions.
give careful consideration to alternatives and the The report then goes on to consider the
competing public interests between conservation physical effects of a barrage development,
and biodiversity, and the provision of secure, low including consideration of data uncertainty, sound
carbon energy supplies. A Severn barrage project science, tides and currents, morphology, and the
would represent a major infrastructure project on an sedimentary regime. These conclusions are used to
international scale. At a regional level, such a large- determine the possible impacts on the environment
scale project would have profound implications for and conservation status of the Severn Estuary, and
the economy and for society in the south-west of economic and social impacts at a regional level. A
England and south Wales. separate section deals with the estimated costs of a
In the context of climate change and renewable barrage scheme, and looks at financing options and
energy targets, there is renewed interest in re- how these fit within current energy policy.
examining a Severn barrage. But the costs and risks Finally, the report summarises some of the
would be significant, and development is unlikely results of our public and stakeholder engagement
to occur without some form of Government support, work before commenting on the policy process
both political and financial. These factors mean that going forward and issues of good governance.
The Severn Estuary is located on the west coast of chemical processing plants, and nuclear power
Britain, where the river Severn meets the Bristol stations.
Channel, between south west England and south The Severn Estuary is a hyper-tidal estuary
Wales. In addition to the river Severn, which is the system as a result of having the highest tidal range
longest and has the highest water flow of any river in the world after the Bay of Fundy in Canada, with
in Britain, the estuary is also fed by the rivers Wye a mean tidal range of 8.2m at Avonmouth. This
and Avon. The estuary supports a number of major has resulted in around 200km2 of inter-tidal area
cities, including Bristol and Cardiff, and is the site for and a highly dynamic sediment regime that is in a
a number of industries, including port installations, constant state of flux.
• Cardiff-Weston scheme: often known as the The cost of a Severn barrage is to a large
main ‘Severn Barrage’ proposal, this would degree dependent on the length and scale of the
run from Lavernock Point, west of Cardiff, to embankments, while energy output is dependent
Brean Down, south-west of Weston-super- on the number of turbines and location within the
Mare estuary. In comparing construction cost estimates to
the estimated electricity output, the SDC’s review
• Cardiff-Weston scheme with second basin: of previous work indicated that the two most cost
similar to the Cardiff-Weston scheme above, effective schemes are the Cardiff-Weston and the
but with a second basin on the seaward side, Shoots alignment and, for comparative purposes,
thus enabling utilisation of nearly the full decided to focus on these in more detail and as a
estuary resource and also providing some starting point for reviewing Severn barrage options
flood protection benefits to the Somerset in terms of sustainable development. The Cardiff-
Levels Weston scheme is the most well studied scheme,
and the updated Shoots concept is based on an
• Dawson continuous power scheme: a earlier scheme which was also studied in some
barrage in the outer estuary from Minehead detail.
(see above), but with an embankment The SDC’s starting point in considering these
extending to Brean Down, thus creating a schemes is as renewable energy schemes, and
second basin and enabling continuous power not, for instance, as flood defence barriers or
output regional development projects. However, the
overall sustainability assessment will depend
• English Stones or Shoots scheme: the on a holistic and integrated assessment of the
currently proposed alignment would run close schemes, having regard to their impacts, costs and
to the two Severn Crossings and has been benefits. The SDC strongly supports renewables and
designed to facilitate a high-speed rail link to the decarbonisation of the energy from a policy
replace the aging Severn Tunnel perspective (see Section 1.4). However, we started
this project with no previous position on a Severn
• Hooker scheme: similar to above but with barrage and our objective has been to review the
a second basin to seaward, enabling out of available evidence and test the arguments for
phase operation on both the ebb and flood and against a barrage against the principles of
tides sustainable development.
It is clear that if a Severn barrage were
• Minehead-Aberthaw scheme: often referred constructed, regardless of the option chosen, it
to as the ‘Outer Barrage’, this alignment would be a huge civil engineering project that would
Cardiff-Weston Shoots
As this overview shows, the Shoots barrage is The landfalls of the proposed barrage schemes
significantly smaller in terms of size and output should be treated as indicative rather than precise,
than the Cardiff-Weston barrage due to its location and the potentially significant effects on the
much higher up the estuary (see Figure 17), where environment and communities living in those areas
the volume of water impounded is much less. should be recognised as issues that would require
substantial further investigation.
Figure 17 Proposed layout and location of the Cardiff-Weston and Shoots barrage
Gloucester
Newport
Shoots Barrage
Cardiff
Weston Super-Mare
4.2.3 Alternatives to a barrage in the Bristol Channel from a Severn barrage is
likely to be minor, with a reduction in output of less
In order to properly consider a potential Severn than 10%; for devices installed after a barrage was
barrage it is important to first consider the other developed, this could be mitigated to some degree
options for exploiting the tidal energy resource in by optimising their design. Conversely, the large-
the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel. Although scale exploitation of the tidal stream resource in
the evidence on this subject is high level and in this area could have an adverse affect on a potential
some areas incomplete, a number of conclusions Severn barrage by reducing the available tidal range.
have emerged from Research Reports 3 and 4. However, based on current resource information, the
tidal range resource (used by a barrage) would be
much greater than the tidal stream resource, which
4.2.4 Compatibility of options has many preferable locations in other parts of the
UK (see Section 1.3).
In order to take a strategic overview of the Severn
Estuary resource, it is important to consider the
compatibility of the different options available. Tidal lagoons
This includes both the compatibility between tidal
barrages, lagoons and tidal stream devices, and also The level of conflict between tidal lagoons and a
between different tidal barrage options. barrage depends to a large extent on the scale
and location of any lagoon development that is
proposed. A direct conflict would occur where tidal
Tidal stream lagoons are being proposed in an area very near
to, or within the basin of, a tidal barrage scheme.
Due to the nature of the resource and the This is because both technologies utilise the tidal
technologies, there does not appear to be any range resource. For example, a tidal lagoon behind
major potential conflict between the utilisation the Cardiff-Weston barrage would have its output
of the tidal stream resource in the Severn Estuary reduced by around 75% of its normal value due to a
and tidal barrages or lagoons. This is because the 50% reduction in the tidal range; this would make
tidal stream resource is concentrated in deep water tidal lagoons here uneconomic in combination with
channels, which, along with large sedimentary a barrage. There would also be a 10% predicted
deposits in the estuary, would present a number of reduction in tidal range just outside the Cardiff-
engineering difficulties for most devices as well as Weston barrage which would reduce the output of
being a navigational hazard for shipping. a tidal lagoon in the Bridgwater Bay area by around
Tidal stream devices are more likely to be sited 20%; the effect further downstream would be less
further downstream from a barrage, in the Bristol pronounced. It is not considered possible to place
Channel. This location has a number of potentially a tidal lagoon upstream of the proposed Shoots
favourable sites that are near the shore and outside barrage due to a lack of an appropriate site.
the deep water channels. For small-scale tidal lagoon developments, such
However, if a Severn barrage were built then as the proposed project in Swansea Bay, conflict
(regardless of the engineering constraints) it would between these two options would be limited,
not be commercially viable to deploy tidal stream with only a small reduction in output expected at
devices within the basin of a Severn barrage, due this location due to a barrage. The conflicts would
to a 50% reduction in tidal currents. A Severn obviously increase with the scale of any proposed
barrage would also reduce the tidal range (and lagoon development and its proximity to a barrage.
hence the tidal current velocities) on its seaward The impacts could also be two-way, with a potential
side by about 10% for the Cardiff-Weston barrage, reduction in the output of a barrage if tidal lagoons
reducing progressively with distance downstream; were to restrict the flow of water further upstream.
the effect on the output of tidal stream devices The effect of the Shoots barrage on potential
is more pronounced due to the fact that output is tidal lagoons would be less than for the Cardiff-
proportional to the cube of the current velocity. Weston barrage, with development of tidal lagoons
Nevertheless, the effect on tidal stream devices possible in all the locations identified above.
Compatibility between barrage options also needs The desk-based research has allowed some of the
to be considered in any strategic assessment. If substantial evidence base on Severn barrage options
the Shoots barrage were built first, then it could to be updated, and for some new work and thinking
theoretically be followed at a later date by the to be developed. However, it was not within the
construction of the larger Cardiff-Weston barrage in scope of this project to conduct a comprehensive
order to develop more of the tidal range resource. re-evaluation of a Severn barrage. A large number
The Cardiff-Weston barrage would reduce the tidal of uncertainties remain, particularly in relation to
range in the basin to around half its normal value, detailed modelling of environmental impacts, the
leading to a reduction of output in the Shoots cost of the proposed schemes, and the potential
Barrage of possibly 75%. The Shoots Barrage would effects on the local and regional economy.
also have an effect on the level output from the On environmental impacts specifically, while
Cardiff-Weston barrage (and the timing of combined a huge volume of data already exists, the studies
output from both schemes), but much of this would carried out in the 1980s predate the Habitats
depend on the method of operation and would Directive and the UK regulations giving effect to
need further investigation. the Habitats and Birds Directives (see Section 4.6.2
Although it is conceivable that the Shoots below). The impact of a barrage on protected
Barrage could be followed by development of the features and the implications of the Directives’
Cardiff-Weston scheme, it seems highly unlikely that requirements for development were therefore not
this would occur in reverse order as the marginal considered in previous studies.
benefits of the Shoots scheme at this stage would Despite these uncertainties, the SDC believes
be significantly reduced. However, it is possible that there is enough evidence to take a strategic
that more of the tidal resource could be developed decision on whether or not a Severn barrage warrants
following development of the Cardiff-Weston single further investigation, bearing in mind the cost and
basin scheme by constructing a second basin effort likely to be required to do this. This report will
extension across Bridgwater Bay. This option is be the SDC’s contribution to this debate; the final
discussed in more detail in Research Report 3. decision is the responsibility of Government.
Table 5 shows the potential contribution of the two Tidal barrages and lagoons can be operated on the
Severn barrage schemes under consideration to ebb or flood tide, or both, and with the optional
UK electricity supply. Figures are also provided for addition of flood/ebb pumping to increase/decrease
their contribution to UK energy supply, which takes the level of water in the basin to further increase
account of all the energy used in the UK economy, output. These options are explained in more detail
such as for heat and transport. As one would expect, in Research Report 3.
the contribution to total energy supply is much Modelling work on the Cardiff-Weston barrage
lower, which illustrates the importance of reducing indicates that the method of operation with the
heat and transport carbon emissions in addition to highest potential electricity output would be ebb-
those from electricity generation. generation with flood pumping, with the pumping
To put these figures in context, the annual output contributing to a net gain in output of around 3%.
of the Cardiff-Weston barrage would be equivalent The corresponding data on the Shoots barrage
to the output of around 2.2GW of conventional is incomplete, but the results are likely to be in a
baseload plant, such as combined cycle gas turbine similar range.
(CCGT) plant or nuclear (assuming a 90% load factor The research on output calculations has so far
– see Section 4.3.3 below). With a typical 1GW plant been from an engineering perspective, and takes
size, this is equivalent to just over two large power little account of the realities of the UK’s liberalised
stations. The Shoots barrage would be equivalent to electricity market, although there is acknowledgment
the annual output of a 350MW conventional power of a degree of flexibility in how a barrage might be
plant. operated. This is largely because the existing work
The impact on the UK’s targets for renewable was completed in a different era, when electricity
electricity would be more pronounced. The UK generation and the operation of individual power
Government has an aspiration for 20% of the UK’s plants was under the control of the Central Electricity
electricity to come from renewables by 2020. More Generating Board. Under this scenario, the aim of
recently, the UK has also agreed to an EU-wide maximising theoretical electricity output for plant
target for 20% of all Europe’s energy consumption with very low variable costs (such as nuclear, or a
(including heat) to come from renewables by 2020.52 tidal barrage) makes sense, as the system operator
The Cardiff-Weston barrage would make a big is likely to schedule conventional plant to fit in with
contribution towards the 2020 aspiration, assuming the resulting output schedule.
it could be built in time. Even the Shoots barrage However, this is no longer the case, and it is now
would make a sizeable contribution, equivalent to likely that the operator of a Severn barrage may seek
that envisaged by a large offshore wind project such to operate the plant on a sub-optimal output regime
as the London Array. to take advantage of more attractive wholesale
Most of the research on tidal barrages assumes a electricity prices. Integrating such economic factors
working life of 120 years, although it is conceivable into future electricity output models is a vital
that electricity could be generated well beyond the consideration. The figures on output presented here
design life if structural integrity could be maintained, should therefore be viewed as theoretical rather
and if siltation did not significantly impair operational than as what might occur in operation.
efficiency. These conclusions are well supported by
experience with large hydropower dams, and with
the barrage at Rance in France, which is in good 4.3.3 Load factor
condition after 40 years of operational service.
Within the lifecycle of the structure there would Tidal power is by its very nature intermittent but
need to be periodic maintenance and replacement highly predictable. This is because it is not reliant
of some of the plant and equipment, which would on weather systems, but on tidal cycles that can be
most likely occur every 40 years or so. calculated hundreds of years in advance.
The terms ‘load factor’ or ‘capacity factor’53 are
used to describe the average output of an electricity
generator over a year in comparison to its rated
capacity. No generator has a load factor of 100%, as
6 60
Average power output – GW
5 50
Electricity demand – GW
4 40
3 30
Typical winter weekday electricity demand in Great Britain
2 20
1 10
0 0
0 3 am 6 am 12 pm 6 pm 9 pm 12 am 0 3 am 6 am 12 pm 6 pm 9 pm 12 am
Overall then, both barrage proposals would make generation periods (from 0GW to 8.6GW for the
a substantial contribution to UK electricity demand, Cardiff-Weston proposal) combined with the daily
but one that is sub-optimal in terms of helping to changes in the output profile of a Severn barrage
meet peak electricity demand periods, when carbon pose a number of serious questions relating to grid
savings would be highest.54 Furthermore, the wide management and transmission capacity. These are
variation in output both during and between explored below.
Figure 19a Spring tide power generation profile from Cardiff-Weston barrage
over a 24 hour period during spring and neap tides
70
60
50
Demand (supply) – GW
40
30
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
78 Tidal Power in the UK Impact of spring tide power generation on net Sustainable
demand profile – Severn Estuary
Development Commission
Figure 19b Neap tide power generation profile from Cardiff-Weston barrage
over a 24 hour period during spring and neap tides
70
60
50
Demand (supply) – GW
40
30
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Figure 20 Demand duration curve with and without the Cardiff-Weston barrage (data from a single year)
80
70
60
50
Demand – GW
30
20
10
0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
When peak barrage output (8.64GW from the competing for demand with low carbon output
Cardiff-Weston barrage) coincides with times of during low demand periods.
minimum electricity demand (25GW), the type Overall, a Severn barrage operated for maximum
of generating output displaced is an important electricity output would reduce the number of
consideration from a carbon-saving perspective. hours that experience small changes in demand for
This depends on the grid mix, and at present, the power from conventional generation, cause a small
Cardiff-Weston barrage would not displace any increase in hours that experience a moderate level
low carbon output (e.g. output from nuclear or of demand change, and increase the extreme hour-
Figure 23: Demand curve with and without the Cardiff-Weston barrage
renewables), as the total capacity of such output
(data from a single year)
to-hour fluctuations in demand that would need to
is less than the net capacity requirement after the be accommodated. This means that the conventional
barrage output is subtracted. In the longer run, with capacity would need to be more reactive and better
more renewables and/or other low carbon capacity, able to respond to very large changes in demand
it is likely that tidal output would occasionally be (either positive or negative).
Gloucester
Rassau
400kV
Imperial Park
Cilfynydd Newport
Cowbridge
Bristol
Cardiff Tremorfa
East
Aberthaw
Melksham
Weston Super-Mare
Hinkley Point
Bridgewater
connections in total), as the 275kV network on scheme due to its higher rated capacity. There
the north side is near to capacity and there is very may also be a requirement for additional grid
limited capacity on the 132kV distribution network strengthening in other parts of the transmission
on the south side. network if such a connection were to be made,
Due to the much smaller rated capacity of the although such requirements would need further
Shoots scheme, the research indicates that all of the detailed study.
connection options seem to have sufficient capacity There is also the possibility that equipment may
to accommodate this through just one connection. be required to allow this additional output to be
A connection to the Hinkley Point – Melksham 400kV used in southern England to substitute for capacity
double-circuit is considered the most appropriate presently provided by the French interconnector to
due to a high demand for new capacity here, which avoid congestion in the central England network.
could further increase with the decommissioning of This would have a negative effect on the carbon
the nuclear power station at Hinkley Point. savings achieved by a Severn barrage, as electricity
These conclusions show that both schemes imported from France has a low carbon intensity
would require some new transmission infrastructure due to the high percentage of nuclear power that
to connect into the existing network, but that this is installed there.
requirement is far higher for the Cardiff-Weston
Cardiff-Weston Shoots
For comparison
Figure 22 Relative position of tidal basin water levels under an ebb generation mode of operation65
High tide
Natural high tide
Barraged inter tidal zone
Source: Clark
also has very strong currents. The currents maintain The Severn Estuary is a highly dynamic
deep channels and high loads of suspended environment, with rapid (often daily) and longer-
sediment. The reduced tidal range would reduce term changes seen in the depths and positioning of
currents in the estuary as a whole. Locally faster different features such as sand banks and channels.
flows would be experienced close to the sluices and Recent evidence suggests that the addition of the
turbines in the barrage. Cardiff Bay barrage has resulted in the gradual split
In addition to water levels and currents, changes and migration of the Cardiff Grounds (a sand bar),
to the wave regime of the estuary are also relevant which may give some indication of the impact of a
to the Cardiff-Weston scheme. With water levels much large Severn barrage.
in the basin remaining more constant (from the Changes to morphology and the sediment
reduced tidal range), waves might be generated regime have implications for the environment, the
on the surface of the estuary with the risk that engineering of a barrage, and also at a social and
increased wave energy could affect soft shorelines economic level; for example, in relation to ports and
at the margins of the estuary. navigation.
More detailed examination of the possible
impact of a barrage, some of which is either highly
4.5.3 Morphology contested or the subject of much uncertainty, is
outlined in Research Report 3.66
Morphology refers to the form and development
of the landscape, in this case also referring to the
underwater areas of the Severn Estuary. As Figure 4.5.4 Sedimentary processes
23 shows, the estuary is characterised by deep
channels running through more shallow waters, with The muddy nature of the Severn Estuary is the
a number of low-lying areas on both sides that would product of a high suspended sediment load, which
be inundated at high water if there were no flood is maintained by the strong currents that pass
embankments. This also illustrates the possible threat through deep channels in the estuary, particularly
of sea level rise and storm surges to this region. on spring tides. The currents are also influenced by
The EC Natura2000
network across
biogeographical
regions
Natura2000 site
Biogeographical
regions 2005
Alpine
Anatolian
Arctic
Atlantic
Black sea
Boreal
Continental
Macaronesia
Mediterranian
Pannonian
Steppic
Outside data coverage
The Severn Estuary area is recognised through a number of international, national and local
designations including:
• Special Protection Area (SPA)
• Ramsar Site
• Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) and a candidate SAC (cSAC)
• Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs)
• National Nature Reserves
• Local Nature Reserves
• Sites of Importance for Nature Conservation
• European Marine Site.
Figure 25 Map showing international designations in the Severn Estuary
Gloucester
Newport Ramsar
Cardiff
Weston Super-Mare
Gloucester
Newport
Site of special scientific interest
Welsh heritage site
Cardiff
Bristol
Weston Super-Mare
Specifically, the value of the diversity of genes, 4.6.3 Habitats and ecology
species, or ecosystems per se is often confused
with the value of a particular component of The dynamic environment and large tidal range
that diversity. Species diversity in and of itself, of the Severn Estuary give rise to a set of features
for example, is valuable because the presence and habitats that are, in a number of cases, unique
of a variety of species helps to increase the to the estuary – that is, that are not typical of
capability of an ecosystem to be resilient in estuaries generally. Each component of the marine
the face of a changing environment.” and coastal environment needs to be evaluated to
build an overall picture of the likely environmental
One of the messages from this work is the impacts of a Severn barrage, and Research Report 3
importance of identifying the geographical scale provides a more detailed ecological assessment that
being studied, and to recognise that biodiversity considers the baseline, predicted future evolution
refers to diversity at multiple different scales. In the and potential impacts for the various components
case of the Severn Estuary, this thinking is behind of the Severn Estuary environment. Here, the
the designation of features that may be important discussion summarises and highlights the key issues
in the context of European or UK-wide biodiversity. set out in that report. Again, as discussed in Section
The impact of a Severn barrage on species and 4.5.1 above, this discussion is based on existing data
habitats is considered in the following sections, with and research, and considerable uncertainties remain
a summary of the overall impact on biodiversity as to the ecological response of the estuary.
provided in Section 4.6.10. The key ecological features in the marine
environment are the intertidal mudflats and
sandflats, saltmarsh, the rocky intertidal area, sand
Figure 27 Location of the two Severn barrage schemes in relation to the intertidal zone
Gloucester
Newport
Shoots Barrage
Cardiff
Mud
Weston Super-Mare
In this dynamic environment, sediments are to the direction of change that would be expected.
highly mobile and the extremes of physical stress However, there are fundamental differences and
mean that the intertidal habitats of the Severn disagreements between experts about the particular
Estuary are characterised by a species-poor implications for birds and ecology in generation.
assemblage of invertebrates (i.e. a low number of
species). However, this does not necessarily mean
a low biomass. The assembled species tend to exist Saltmarsh habitat
in large numbers of relatively small individuals.
The large tidal range, funnelling processes, strong The Severn Estuary is an important location for
tidal streams, and high suspended sediment loads saltmarsh, a resource that is in decline throughout
create difficult conditions for the colonisation of Europe and the UK. Figure 28 shows the location of
benthic species (species that live on the sea floor such saltmarsh areas in relation to the proposed barrage
as invertebrates). In the sub-estuaries of the rivers schemes.
Wye, Bristol, Avon and Usk, the benthic macrofauna A marked contraction of saltmarsh habitat is
is similar to that found in the soft sediments of the also predicted in the presence of a barrage. This is
main estuary but in higher numbers. principally because, with the change in tidal range
and duration, existing estuarine saltmarshes would
be inundated less frequently. However, changes to
Invertebrates and biodiversity the hydrodynamic conditions, sedimentary regime
and morphology of the estuary would also affect
Changes in the physical regime and the intertidal the saltmarsh.
area would have implications for the invertebrate For a Cardiff-Weston alignment, a reduction
communities present in the intertidal area. The of around 540ha is predicted and for a Shoots
1980s studies pointed to invertebrate associations alignment, about 133ha. These figures refer
in the intertidal areas increasing in abundance and only to the expected reduction upstream of a
in biomass of species with a barrage. Species typical barrage; reduction might also occur downstream.
of hypertidal estuaries were predicted to decrease The total area of saltmarsh around the estuary and
while other species might increase. The size Bridgwater Bay is about 1430ha. Although the
distribution of individuals in these species would expected reduction is qualitatively similar for a
also tend to increase. Shoots barrage, the actual reduction is of a much
This prediction gives rise to one of the most critical lesser magnitude due to the relationship between
– and controversial – questions about the impact the location of the saltmarshes and the barrage.
that the significantly reduced intertidal area would As the upper marsh zone becomes more
have for ecology and birds, and the relationship permanently exposed, it would be colonised by
between this reduction and the expected increase more terrestrial vegetation. The predicted terrestrial
in biological productivity. There is broad agreement vegetation is expected to include increased
that these preliminary assessments are accurate as distribution of Spartina, which is a type of grass
Gloucester
Newport
Salt Marsh
Cardiff
Bristol
Weston Super-Mare
often found in freshwater swamps and saltmarshes. estuary. Subtidal sandbanks would also change as
The increased presence of Spartina on the upper tidal the result of the morphological, hydrodynamic and
flats is of concern for birds. In particular, this raises sedimentary changes discussed above at paragraphs
concerns for one of the important migratory birds, 4.5.3 and 4.5.4.
the Dunlin because studies in other UK locations
have found a correlation between the spread of
Spartina and decrease in Dunlin67. Rocks and shingles
Loss of saltmarshes through accelerated erosion
would mean that even as the high water mark is In addition to the main mud and sandflats of
restored with sea level rise over time, it is possible the intertidal area, some rocky intertidal areas
that re-establishment of former salt marshes would would also become subtidal under a barrage,
not be possible except over a very long time period and some geological features including wave cut
(centuries to millennia).76 platforms which rely on continued erosion for their
maintenance would be lost.
The main shingle habitats in the estuary are the
Subtidal habitats low shingle ridges in Bridgwater Bay. Changes to
the sediment regime and physical processes within
The muddy and sandy subtidal habitats would the estuary have the potential to affect the shingle
increase in area as a result of the decreased intertidal habitats within the estuary.
area. The change in physical regime would affect
particular species of honeycomb worm, Sabellaria,
which forms reefs and is a protected feature of the
Gloucester
Cardiff
Bristol
Weston Super-Mare
• It is predicted unlikely that eutrophic predictions would be how the Water Framework
conditions would result, although there is Directive would apply.
some dispute over this finding.
Table 8 Bird species presented in the SPA citation (with numbers in brackets)67 Source: RSPB
Internationally important Bewick’s Swan (289) Bewick’s Swan is just below the
populations of regularly ‘international’ threshold (276)
occurring Annex 1 species
An internationally important
Qualifies Qualifies
assemblage of waterfowl
Existing bird population status although the reasons are not clear. Decreases in
Pochard and Tufted Duck have also occurred but
Two species have declined substantially in recent for different, local reasons (possibly in response
years: the Dunlin and the European White-fronted to improved local water quality or changes in food
Goose. This decline is probably as a result of climate supply). Other species have increased considerably
change, and reflects a trend for other sites in Wales over this time. For example, several ducks (Pintail,
and south western England where warmer winters Shoveler, Teal, Widgeon) as well as Redshank and
mean that birds have been remaining in more eastern Black-tailed Godwits. Pintail and Teal are now at
areas. Ringed Plover has also decreased, probably internationally important numbers in the Severn.
for the same reason. Grey Plover has decreased
Gloucester
Newport
Cardiff
Bristol
Weston Super-Mare
The Severn Estuary is not a static system, and continue, looking at timeframes of 20, 50 and 100
predictions for the evolution of the baseline estuary years. Sea level rise will create ‘coastal squeeze’
environment need to be considered in the light of and eventually, some loss of intertidal habitat.
sea level rise and climate change. Research Report 3 The greatest percentage change is expected to be in
draws on recent work by the Environment Agency82 saltmarsh. In 2025, changes in the upstream areas
to develop a coastal habitat management plan of the Severn estuary will be apparent, and by 2055,
(CHaMP) for the Severn. There is also some other a change in the overall estuary bed profile can be
research considering the implications of climate expected. By 2105, this is likely to be further change
change for the estuary although this is relatively to the profile of the estuary bed with an overall net
limited and a developing area of research.83 loss to the intertidal area. The estimated changes
The Severn CHaMP confirms that the estuary compared to the current situation are presented in
is changing and predicts that the change will the table below.
Total Estuary Change Estimate of Area in 2005 20 year 50 year 100 year
(As compared to 2005) (ha) (GIS estimate) % change % change % change
Intertidal mudflat
20,000 -6 -5 -9
and sandflat
Subtidal 46,000 +3 +3 +5
The predictions of the CHaMP will be used to of change (positive or negative) depends on a range
inform decisions on coastal flood risk management, of factors and varies under different climate change
and will inform the shoreline management plan scenarios.
for the Severn Estuary. The aim is to ensure that Overall, the picture is complex and involves a
potential habitat loss is taken into account in number of interacting factors related to sea level
decisions on coastal defence works (maintenance of rise and an increase in average temperatures under
existing works and construction of new works) in a various scenarios. Different habitats and species
way that protects the integrity of the Natura 2000 may respond differently to both factors at a UK
network and Ramsar sites.84 and international scale over the medium to long-
In relation to birds, Prater67 indicates that term, meaning that the relative importance of a site
decreases in Severn Estuary bird numbers for will vary for different species over time. However,
several important species (Dunlin, Ringed Plover the estuary, and conservation sites in general, will
and European White Fronted Goose) are attributable remain important for habitats and species as they
to warmer winters – the trend has been for a shift adapt to climate change.
to eastern estuaries (small species such as Dunlin
would have been disadvantaged by a smaller body
weight in colder eastern temperatures in the past). 4.6.9 Impact of a barrage on protected
However, this trend could be reversed over time (as features
habitat availability and conditions change in other
areas), and western estuaries could receive higher The first stage in applying the Directives is that
numbers in the future. This points to the position of an ‘appropriate assessment’ must be made.
the Severn within the wider network of protected An appropriate assessment for a scheme at the
sites and as part of the East Atlantic Flyway. scale of a Severn barrage would require extensive
There will be winners and losers among the birds further studies and analysis. The following gives
in the Severn Estuary from climate change. Sea level an indicative assessment of the predicted impacts
rise will have an impact on the estuary but it is not on the conservation features. This overview shows
clear that the levels of sea level rise and habitat that features would be affected to various degrees
loss predicted until the end of the century will by both of the two schemes under consideration.
have a major negative impact on the current bird However, the scale of the different schemes, and
interest of the site.67 Even bird species in the Severn hence the impacts, should also be kept in mind.
that drop below the thresholds for international The conclusion of this preliminary assessment
significance are expected to remain important in a is that either barrage would have significant
UK context. Fish (in particular salmon), will also be implications for the integrity of the sites. This
affected by climate change, but again the direction means that the tests in Article 6(4) of the Habitats
SPA Features
• Annex 1 species • No specific assessment available • No specific assessment available
– Bewick’s swan – possible impacts to population – possible impacts to population
• Intertidal rock • Unquantified loss of intertidal rock • Unquantified loss of intertidal rock
and shingle and shingle and shingle
cSAC Features
• Atlantic saltmeadows/ • Unquantified but substantial loss • Unquantified but substantial loss
saltmarsh of existing 539ha resource of existing 133ha resource
• Estuary • Reduction in tidal range and flows • Reduction in tidal range and flows u/s
u/s barrage; small local reduction in of barrage; small local reduction in
tidal range d/s of barrage tidal range d/s of barrage
• Fish (atlantic salmon) • High risk of high mortality • Low risk of impact
• Fish (atlantic salmon) • High risk of high mortality • High risk of high mortality
Directive must be applied.85 In effect, given the the invertebrates are an unusual mix and they are
major changes that a barrage would bring and the generally smaller than their counterparts in other
nature conservation importance of the estuary, any estuaries but occur in larger numbers. Therefore,
barrage development must make a very strong case from a biodiversity perspective, any changes to
to justify overriding the presumption of protection. the diversity of the Severn Estuary would need to
The tests – no alternative solutions and imperative be assessed both in terms of their impact on the
reasons of overriding public interest – as well as the estuary itself, but also in terms of the impact on
requirement to secure compensatory measures are national and international biodiversity.
considered in Section 4.10.4 as part of the discussion On a geographical scale, the species that use
on process and good governance. the estuary – especially migratory birds and fish – fit
into the wider biogeographic region and so it would
be important to consider implications of a barrage
4.6.10 Biodiversity impact of a Severn barrage for these populations within this wider context – for
example, the East Atlantic Flyway for waders and the
The Severn is notable in that it has a low number of Atlantic for salmon, trout and other fish species.
species, relative to other estuaries. In fact, the Atlantic The initial predictions give a strong indication
region as a whole has lower levels of biodiversity that large-scale barrage development would have
in pure species numbers than other regions within an irreversible effect on some protected features,
Europe – but it makes up for this in terms of animal reduce the area of certain habitat types (most
abundance.86 Similarly, in the Severn, the diversity notably the intertidal area), and that there would
and abundance of species found within the estuary be a loss of existing biodiversity. An increase in the
may seem to be relatively poor in comparison with productivity of the estuary as a result of a barrage
other estuaries. But the Severn estuary hosts very may not, in the latter case, be seen as desirable
large numbers of individuals because of its sheer if this were to replace unique features with those
size, and also plays an important role as part of the that can be found in other ecosystems. There is
overall network of estuaries in Great Britain and in also significant uncertainty based on available
the Atlantic biogeographic region of which it is a information of whether increased productivity in
part (see Figure 29). the estuary would translate into increased bird
Moreover, the species in the Severn Estuary numbers.
occur in different ways than in other estuaries;
Community and environmental impacts The provision of new transport links as part of a
Severn barrage project would appear to be an
Any new transport infrastructure project can have ‘optional extra’ for which there are uncertainties both
significant impacts on existing communities and the over the need, and the engineering practicalities. As
environment, both positive and negative, although a result, transport proposals should be evaluated as
these differ considerably between road and rail. stand-alone projects based on the additional costs
For a new road link, the positive impacts can that they might add to a barrage scheme. For a rail
include improved access for local communities (and crossing, this would necessitate an assessment of
the wider region), reduced congestion, and shorter the comparative cost of building a link over a barrage
journey times as a result of more direct routes. These compared to a new bridge link or tunnel that could
benefits, if maintained, can have positive benefits be constructed in the most appropriate location.
Gloucester
Coastal Defences
Newport
Cardiff
Bristol
Weston Super-Mare
• Angling in river tributaries upstream of Figure 32 shows the tourist attractions and
a potential barrage, with some 6,000 recreational areas in the Severnside area.
participants estimated for salmon alone Previous work by STPG suggests that the
• Bird watching, particularly around Bridgwater combination of a high tidal range, strong currents,
Bay and in the upper estuary at Slimbridge, and high levels of turbidity serve to limit the level of
the latter having about 200,000 visitors a year recreational activity in the Severn Estuary. However,
• Cardiff Bay recreation due to the completion the effect of this may allow or encourage the
in 1999 of the Cardiff Bay barrage existence of other forms of recreation, such as those
• Surfing and tourism related to the unique associated with the wildlife or unique characteristics
occurrence of the Severn Bore, which is a of the area.
Gloucester
Forest of Dean
Gloucester &
Sharpness Canal
Lydney
Monmouthshire
& Brecon Canal Chepstow
Shoots Barrage
Caldicot
Newport Thornbury
Forest of Avon
Cardiff Avonmouth
Penarth
Llantwit
Major Barry
Flat Holm
Sully Island
Steep Holm Boating activities
Bathing beaches
Weston Super-Mare
Boat trips
Tourist resort
Beach
Industrial heritage
Minehead Railway heritage
Watchet
Bird watching areas
Wild fowling
Visitors Centre
Table 11 Unit cost of output (p/kWh (real)) for different barrage options at various discount rates
Discount rate
Cardiff-Weston
Shoots
The first conclusion from this data is that the and the costs above do not take account of the
choice of discount rate has a very considerable low carbon premium that electricity output from a
impact on the unit cost of output. This is due to the barrage would attract. A full commercial analysis
high up-front capital cost of a barrage, and the long would include an assumption on long-term carbon
lifetime of the structure. The SDC’s research paper prices but, in the absence of such data, there is a
on the economics of nuclear power concluded good case for considering the two barrage options
that a commercial discount rate of 9% might be against other sources of low carbon electricity.
appropriate for private sector construction of new Table 11 shows how the two Severn barrage
nuclear plant. Recognising that there are a number options compare against other electricity generating
of similarities between a large tidal barrage and the technologies, with the range in costs representative
development of nuclear power, this implies that the of the discount rates described above. This shows
8 and 10% discount rates are the most appropriate that at an 8% discount rate, both options lie at
to use if the barrage were to be developed by the the higher end in comparison to other low carbon
private sector. As would be expected, using a social technologies; at 15%, they are well above the costs
discount rate (2 - 3.5%) results in a much lower unit of all other technologies except wave power; but
cost of output than the commercial discount rates. using low discount rates of 2 or 3.5% a barrage
A low discount rate may be appropriate if the becomes highly cost-competitive.
project were viewed as a publicly-owned project, Even allowing for the fact that the barrage figures
as this would take better account of the very long- may not be completely accurate, the conclusion
term benefits. from this comparison is that both Severn barrage
The second conclusion is that neither of the options are unlikely to be economically viable for
schemes is cost competitive when compared against private sector investment in electricity generation.
current wholesale electricity prices if a commercial This has consistently been the conclusion of the UK
discount rate is applied. However, this should not Government. Furthermore, due to the one-off nature
be a surprise with such capital-intensive proposals, of barrage construction, there is only very limited
0
5
Gas CCGT Gas CCGT
Average CHP
Average coal
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
biomass biomass
biomass biomass
Nuclear Nuclear
Unit cost at 3.5% discount rate
Unit cost at 2% discount rate
Conventional
AdvancedAdvanced
Average CHP
Average coal
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Conventional
25
20
25 Shoots unit cost range
p/kWh
15
20 Unit cost at 15% discount rate
Shoots unit cost range
p/kWh
10
15 Unit cost at 10% discount rate
Unit cost at 8%
15%discount
discountrate
rate
5
10 Unit cost at 3.5% discount rate
Unit
Unit cost
cost at
at 2%
10%discount
discountrate
rate
0 Unit cost at 8% discount rate
5
Gas CCGT Gas CCGT
Average CHP
Average coal
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
biomass biomass
biomass biomass
Nuclear Nuclear
0
Conventional
AdvancedAdvanced
Average CHP
Average coal
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Conventional
potential for learning effects from such a project, investment across a wide range of technologies,
which means that it is hard to justify Government both in supply and demand. This is something that
intervention on innovation grounds. Comparison of fullyGovernment is currently
built up cost of technologies 2006reluctant to contemplate,
However, opting solely for the least-cost options despite the fact that overall costs as a percentage of
for generating low carbon electricity ignores a number GDP would be relatively small – as concluded by the
Comparison of fully built up cost of technologies 2006
of other considerations, including constraints on the Stern Review.22
rate that any one technology can be deployed, and It is also possible to argue that standard economic
the reduced risk and cost benefits from having a broad analysis tends to understate the social and economic
portfolio of generating technologies.103 Research gains of projects with very long time horizons.
done by the Policy Studies Institute for the SDC104 For example, none of the UK’s four pumped storage
highlights the huge gap that is emerging between power plants would be likely to go ahead on a
required and planned low carbon electricity capacity purely commercial basis, because of the high capital
up to 2030 which, along with the new EU renewables cost and long timescales involved. Nonetheless,
targets, may necessitate the development of a whole these plants, which were all commissioned in the
series of technologies (both renewable and non- nationalised era of UK energy policy, have proven
renewable) at a range of cost levels. The conclusion themselves as very reliable providers of instantly
from this is that electricity prices will need to rise dispatchable reserve power, bringing significant
substantially in the long-run to pay for low carbon environmental and economic benefits.
Strongly in favour
Slightly in favor
Slightly against
Nothing at all
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Don’t know
Public attitudes to a barrage across the Severn Estuary
Potential for new jobs and economic development in
South Wales and parts of South West England
The potential for increased protection from flooding for
some parts of South West England
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
4.10.1 Research and assessment stages The UK Government (and wider society) is increasingly
recognising the important benefits to decision-
For a Severn barrage proposal to be taken forward, making that can be gained through good public
it would need to successfully pass through a number and stakeholder engagement. Recent experience
of distinct stages: clearly demonstrates where good engagement
can support and inform policy decisions,109 and
1 Pre-feasibility studies to look at a number of where inadequate or no engagement results in a
potentially ‘deal-breaking’ issues, for example failure or derailment of political processes.110 The
compensatory habitat requirements and entrenchment of positions and subsequent delay
financing models. This stage may also need to (or abandonment of) policy that ensues can
to include a final decision on the preferred confound any attempts towards a more progressive,
alignment. efficient and effective decision-making process.
2 A Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) As more critical and complex issues, such as
could be required to assess the proposal in a Severn barrage, come to the top of the political
the context of the wider tidal range resource, agenda, there is a growing need for a new model
including full consideration of alternative of engagement within our society to tackle these
options as part of a tidal energy plan or challenges. This model aims to bring together
programme. government, stakeholders and the public in a more
3 Comprehensive and detailed feasibility collaborative approach to decision-making. If we are
studies for the purpose of evaluating the to address ‘whole systems’ issues, to acknowledge
viability of the project, covering detailed cost scientific complexity and to recognize the potential
estimates, material sourcing and logistics, trade-offs between competing needs, we need a
updated output predictions, grid upgrades, whole systems approach for collective decision-
sedimentary modelling, impact on other making.
users, impact on local and regional economy, The issue of a Severn barrage is not currently
mitigation and compensation options for lost high on the public’s list of concerns, but that
habitat, and impact on birds and fish species. would quickly change if a decision was taken in
4 Comprehensive and detailed environmental favour of the concept, with the potential for high-
studies as part of the Environmental profile campaigns on both sides of the debate.
Impact Assessment (EIA) and Appropriate The complexity and interdependency of issues
Assessment, and other studies as required, and potential impacts of the Severn Barrage make
in order to submit a planning application and effective engagement an intrinsic part of any
apply for consent under Section 38 of the decision-making process relating to the barrage.
Electricity Act 1989. This thinking lies behind the SDC’s own work on
public and stakeholder engagement around tidal
Depending on the scale of the proposal, special power in the UK.
primary legislation, a ‘Severn Barrage Act’, is one
option for drawing together one or more of these
processes in a coherent way. Legislation could set up Good governance and sustainable development
a single process for the consenting of a proposal, or
it could go further and also establish financing and The SDC places great importance on promoting
institutional arrangements for a project. good governance, which is one of the three
There may be some scope for one of more of principles underpinning the UK’s shared framework
a) It informs the public and key stakeholders, There is a clear need for substantial public and
not only through direct/indirect provision stakeholder engagement if a decision is taken to
of information but also by stimulating fuller further investigate proposals for a Severn barrage.
public debate on key issues The SDC’s own engagement programme on tidal
b) It ensures acceptable consultation power was necessarily high level, and was not able
processes which generate a full and usable to go into the depth that would be required on,
understanding of the full range of opinions for example, the different barrage options and the
and aspirations around key issues and likely environmental impacts, for a decision to be
decisions made.
c) It allows the information gained to increase Any further engagement process would need
the validity and robustness of the resulting to ensure that there is a real chance to influence
decision, and the likelihood of its successful Government policy and the conditions attached to
implementation. the development of a Severn barrage.
Conclusions and
Recommendations
5.1 A consensus view
This chapter presents the SDC’s conclusions and be as transparent as possible in how we reached our
recommendations on the role of tidal power in the conclusions. The main body of the report is intended
UK, and outlines our position on a Severn barrage, as a summary and analysis of all the research we
taking account of the analysis and conclusions from have drawn on, with a series of conclusions on a
Chapter 4. wide range of issues. This was used as the source
Our consideration of a Severn barrage has material for the discussions that took place between
involved a staged process of evidence gathering the SDC’s Commissioners, which focused on a
and engagement, through to final analysis and smaller number of more controversial, high level
discussion. The SDC started the project with a keen issues. These discussions culminated in a series of
interest in understanding the untapped potential of intensive SDC sessions in Cardiff over two days in
tidal power technologies in a low carbon electricity July 2007, and included a field trip to the banks of
system – and with no fixed views on the issues the Severn Estuary and the Cardiff Bay barrage. The
around a Severn barrage. This has enabled us to minutes of the SDC’s plenary sessions are published
take a completely fresh look at the opportunities on our website.
and issues involved, whilst testing the principles of This chapter is the product of these final
sustainable development on a real and controversial discussions, and represents the consensus view of
question – whether the Government should further the SDC’s Commissioners on a number of high level
consider a Severn barrage. issues. It lays out a clear set of recommendations
One of our aims with this report, and by and challenges to Government to ensure the
publishing our evidence base on our website, is to exploitation of tidal power in a sustainable way.
Policy appraisal
Avoiding a ‘decide-and-deliver’ approach
If the Government is minded towards developing
Despite being very positive over the potential for a a sustainable Severn barrage, then it will need
sustainable Severn barrage, the SDC has outlined a to consider the implications for energy and
series of important conditions on how such a project environmental conservation policy in light of the
should be developed. Navigating through the issues SDC’s advice, and to decide whether it is willing
and agreeing on these conditions has been a difficult to take on the role of project lead that would be
process for the SDC’s Commissioners, particularly due required. This will involve a detailed examination
to the inevitable risk that our recommendations may of the most appropriate organisational setup for the
be selectively applied once a decision is made. further work required, and a clear timeline for how
The SDC believes that on such an important the work should proceed.
issue, Government must avoid a decide-and-deliver An early decision may need to be taken on which
approach. There are a number of crucial areas of of the barrage options should be selected for further
uncertainty that will need to be resolved before investigation. This would need to take account of
a final decision can be made – in particular, the the results from any ongoing engagement work
achievability and cost of providing compensatory (see below) to avoid an approach that is dictated
habitat. This will require a sequential process and solely by engineering and economic factors.
one that is genuinely open to the possibility that
there may be obstacles to development that cannot
be overcome. Compensatory habitat requirements