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Pg2}\par\pard\ql \li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0
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\par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li851\sb0\sl-460\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li851\sb300\sl-460\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 \ul0\nosupersub\cf3\f4\fs40 THE \par\pard\ql
\li851\ri3493\sb4\sl-480\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 MONETARY \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 POLICY \par\pard\ql \li851\sb17\sl-460\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 OF THE ECB \par\pard\ql \li851\sb125\sl-333\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex99 \ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs29 2004
\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg3}
{\bkmkend Pg3}\par\pard\ql \li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\sb86\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs13 � European
Central Bank, 2004 \par\pard\ql \li453\sb159\sl-161\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Address \par\pard\ql \li453\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs13 Kaiserstrasse 29
\par\pard\ql \li453\ri3978\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 60311
Frankfurt am Main \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Germany \par\pard\ql
\li453\sb160\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs13 Postal address \par\pard\ql \li453\sb0\sl-
160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs13 Postfach 16
03 19 \par\pard\ql \li453\ri3978\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
60066 Frankfurt am Main \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Germany \par\pard\ql
\li453\sb160\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs13 Telephone \par\pard\ql \li453\sb0\sl-160\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs13 +49 69 1344 0
\par\pard\ql \li453\sb160\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs13 Internet \par\pard\ql \li453\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs13 http://www.ecb.int \par\pard\ql
\li453\sb160\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs13 Fax \par\pard\ql \li453\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs13 +49 69 1344 6000
\par\pard\ql \li453\sb160\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf5\f6\fs13 Telex \par\pard\ql \li453\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs13 411144 ecb d \par\pard\ql
\li453\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li453\ri3570\sb160\sl-160\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf7\f8\fs13 This publication was produced
under the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 responsibility of the Executive Board
of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the ECB. \par\pard\ql \li453\ri3570\sb160\sl-
160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 All rights reserved. Reproduction for
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 educational and non-commercial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 purposes is permitted provided that the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 source is acknowledged. \par\pard\ql
\li453\ri3570\sb160\sl-160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 The cut-off date
for the statistics included \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 in this issue was
end-June 2003. \par\pard\ql \li453\ri3861\sb160\sl-160\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs13 ISBN 92-9181-479-2 (print)
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 ISBN 92-9181-480-6 (online)
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333\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs29 CONTENTS
\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb127\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8123
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 FOREWORD\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 7\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
207\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb75\sl-207\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 CHAPTER 1\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb66\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8123 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf10\f11\fs19 The institutional framework
of the single monetary policy\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 9\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
207\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb85\sl-207\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 CHAPTER 2\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb66\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf10\f11\fs19 The economic and financial
structure of the euro area\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 17\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 2.1 Key characteristics of
the real economy\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
17\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 2.2 Labour market\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 19\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
2.3 Government sector\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 21\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 2.4 External trade\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
24\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 2.5 Financial structure\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 25\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
2.6 Financial markets\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 30\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 2.7\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Financial
intermediaries\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
34\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-207\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb85\sl-207\slmult0\fi0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 CHAPTER
3\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb66\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf10\f11\fs19 The ECB\u8217?s monetary
policy strategy\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
41\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 3.1\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 The role of monetary policy and the benefits of price
stability\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
41\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 3.2\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 The transmission mechanism of monetary policy\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 44\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 3.3\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 The ECB\u8217?s
monetary policy strategy: general principles\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 49\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 3.4\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 The ECB\u8217?s
quantitative definition of price stability\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 50\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2154 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 3.5\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 The analysis of risks to price stability in the ECB\u8217?
s\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi452\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
monetary policy strategy\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 55\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 3.6\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Accountability,
transparency and communication\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 66\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
207\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb85\sl-207\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 CHAPTER 4\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb66\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf10\f11\fs19 Monetary policy
implementation\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
71\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2154 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 4.1\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 General
principles and objectives behind the design of the\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi452\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 operational framework\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
71\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 4.2 Overview of the Eurosystem\u8217?s operational
framework\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
73\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 4.3 Minimum reserves\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 77\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
4.4 Open market operations\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 79\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 4.5 Standing
facilities\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
84\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8021 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 4.6 Central bank liquidity and the liquidity needs
of the banking system\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
85\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 4.7\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 Experience from January 1999 to June 2003\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 89\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
207\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb85\sl-207\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 CHAPTER 5\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb66\sl-218\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf10\f11\fs19 The conduct of monetary policy in the first years of
the\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
single monetary policy\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 91\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 5.1 Introduction\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 91\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 5.2\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Main
developments\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
92\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
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period\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
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30\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2154\tx8022 \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 Monetary aggregates\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 Empirical findings on monetary policy
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 in the euro area\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 48\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 The medium-term orientation of the ECB\u8217?s monetary
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54\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx8022 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 Counterparties and collateral\tab \up0
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2.1 Key real economy characteristics of the euro area in 2002\tab \up0
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Participation rates by gender and age group in the euro
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and the United States in 2002\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 20\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 2.3\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 External trade
in goods of the euro area in 2002\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 25\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2153 \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 Financial investment and financing of non-financial
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 in the euro area at end-2002\tab \up0
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2.5\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Amounts outstanding of euro-denominated short-
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 securities issued by euro area residents\tab \up0
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 2.6 Amounts outstanding of euro-denominated long-
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residents in the euro area, the United States \par\pard\li2153\sb13\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx8022 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 and Japan at end-2002\tab
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\expndtw0\charscalex100 and Japan\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 4
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 87\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 CHARTS\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
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\expndtw0\charscalex104 The decision-making bodies of the ECB\tab \up0
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 17\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 19\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 22\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 2.4\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Trade weights of
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 25\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 2.5\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Functions of
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\expndtw0\charscalex104 Percentage shares of components of M3 at end-2002\tab
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38\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2154 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
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Eurosystem) at end-2002\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
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\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 3.1\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 A stylised illustration of the transmission mechanism
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interest rates to prices\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 66\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
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76\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 4.2\tab \up0
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requirement system\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
78\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex104 Recourse to standing facilities from January 1999 to June
2003\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
85\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 4.4\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Recourse to standing facilities within a maintenance
period\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
86\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 4.5\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Volume of the main and longer-term refinancing
operations\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
89\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 4.6\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Required reserves and autonomous liquidity factors\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 90\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 5.1\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 HICP
inflation\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
92\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 5.2\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Nominal effective exchange rate of the euro and oil
prices\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19
93\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 93\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx2155\tx8023 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
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94\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx2154 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
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\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 95\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
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January 1999 the European\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Central Bank (ECB) has conducted the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 single monetary policy for the euro \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 area. The Treaty on European Union \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 assigns the Eurosystem the primary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex122 objective of maintaining price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 stability, reflecting a broad consensus \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 in society that maintaining stable \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 prices is the best contribution that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex124 monetary policy can make to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 economic growth, job creation and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 social cohesion.\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb59\sl-218\slmult0\tx2902 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 In
October\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 1998 the Governing\par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri70\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 Council adopted its
monetary policy \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 strategy and presented it to the
public, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 well in advance of the launch of the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 single currency. The strategy has been \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 successful in providing a robust \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 framework for decision-making and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 a basis for accountability vis-�-vis \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 the public. This was essential for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 establishing the credibility of the ECB \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 and confidence in the euro from the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 outset.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri71\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 In its early years,
the single monetary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 policy faced a number of
significant \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 challenges. The ECB was
confronted \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 with a quadrupling of oil prices as
well \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 as pronounced movements in the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 foreign exchange and stock markets. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 It also had to deal with the period \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 of uncertainty cast over the world \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 economy in \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 2001 by the
terrorist\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
attacks of September \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 11 and the\par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri70\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 subsequent
geopolitical tensions. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 Despite this demanding
context, the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 ECB has managed to gain and
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 maintain the trust of the public and of \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 the markets. Inflation has been kept at \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 low levels despite substantial adverse \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 shocks, while indicators of long-term \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 inflation expectations have remained\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb181\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 in line with the ECB\u8217?s definition of\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 price stability.\par\pard\qj
\li5103\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb8\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 At the same time, the Eurosystem has \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 also performed to the highest technical \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 standards. Its operational framework \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 for the single monetary policy has \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 been functioning very smoothly since \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 the launch of the euro in 1999 and, as \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 a result, there has been little volatility \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 in short-term interest rates.\par\pard\qj \li5103\sb0\sl-
249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 In order to explain important aspects of \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 the single monetary policy to a broader \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 audience, this book provides a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 comprehensive overview of the ECB\u8217?s \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 monetary policy and its economic and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 institutional background. The first \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 edition, produced in \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 2001,
was\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115
translated into most of the official \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 Community
languages together with \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Chinese, Japanese and Korean.
Given \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 the strong interest in this publication in \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 Europe and beyond, and in the light of \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 new developments over the past two \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 years, the ECB has now decided to \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 issue an updated version.\par\pard\qj \li5103\sb0\sl-
249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb2\sl-249\slmult0\tx1261\tx2833 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 The structure of the second edition of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 this publication mirrors that of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 first and provides an update on the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 economic and financial structure of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 the euro area. The book has been \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 revised in line with the Governing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 Council\u8217?s \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114
confirmation \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 and\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb1\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 clarification of the ECB\u8217?s
monetary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 policy strategy of May 2003. It also
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 takes account of some changes to the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Eurosystem\u8217?s operational framework \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 for monetary policy and of our \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 experience with actual policy-making \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 since the publication of the first \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 edition.
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}}\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg9}{\bkmkend Pg9}\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri4948\sb204\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 I am sure this new edition of
\u8220?The \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 monetary policy of the ECB\u8221?
will \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 further contribute to the best possible
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 understanding of the ECB\u8217?s monetary
\line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 policy. \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Frankfurt am
Main, January 2004 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb60\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Jean-Claude
Trichet \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw196
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
8\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg10}
{\bkmkend Pg10}\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-380\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri3478\sb147\sl-380\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex96
\ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs29 1 THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex97 OF THE SINGLE MONETARY POLICY \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1534\sb158\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf14\f15\fs20 On 1 January 1999 the
European Central Bank (ECB) assumed responsibility \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 for monetary policy in the euro area - the second largest
economic area in the \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 world after the United
States.The transfer of responsibility for monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 from 11 national central banks - which became 12, with the
participation of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Greece, on 1 January 2001 - to
a new supranational institution represented a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
milestone in a long and complex process of integration among European \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 countries. Before adopting the euro, all candidate
countries were required to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 fulfil a number of
convergence criteria, which were aimed at ensuring the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 economic and legal preconditions for successfully
participating in a stability-\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 oriented monetary
union.This chapter describes the main institutional aspects \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 most relevant for understanding the ECB\u8217?s monetary
policy.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\
colsr160\colno3\colw4677\colsr160\ql \li589\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li589\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li589\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li589\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li589\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li589\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li700\sb45\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The Treaty is\par\pard\qj
\li589\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0\tx652 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the legal basis
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 for the single\par\pard\ql \li914\sb7\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 monetary\par\pard\ql \li1006\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 policy\u8230?\par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1159\sb97\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 \u8230?and\par\pard\ql \li804\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 established\par\pard\ql \li739\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 the ECB and\par\pard\ql \li960\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 the ESCB\par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li637\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li879\sb126\sl-172\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 The terms\par\pard\qj \li486\ri0\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0\fi151 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \u8220?Eurosystem\u8221? \line \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 and \u8220?euro area\u8221?\par\pard\column \ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb104\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 The ECB, the ESCB and\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 the Eurosystem\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The legal basis for the single monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 policy is the Treaty establishing the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 European Community (as amended). \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 Excerpts of most relevant legal \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 provisions can be found in Box 1.1.\ul0\super\cf6\f7\fs20
1\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb2\sl-249\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The Treaty and the
Statute of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 European System of Central
Banks \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 and of the European Central Bank \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 (Statute of the ESCB), which
 is \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 attached to that Treaty as a protocol,
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 established both the ECB and the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 European System of Central Banks \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 (ESCB) as from 1 June 1998. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 ESCB comprises the ECB and the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 national central banks (NCBs) of all \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 EU Member States (Article 107 (1) of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 the Treaty).\ul0\super\cf6\f7\fs20 2\par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The term \u8220?
Eurosystem\u8221? denotes the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 ECB and the NCBs
of those Member \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 States that have adopted the
euro.\ul0\super\cf6\f7\fs20 3\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 For\par\pard\column
\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb104\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 as long as there are Member
States\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
that have not yet adopted the euro, it \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 will be
necessary to make a distinction \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 between the
Eurosystem and the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 ESCB. The term \u8220?euro area\u8221? refers to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 the area comprising those EU Member \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 States that have adopted the euro.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1590\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 The objective of the single monetary \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 policy and tasks to be carried out\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 through the Eurosystem\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The Treaty (Article 105 (1)) - which\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Overriding\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb1\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 importance
of\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 refers to the ESCB rather than to the\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 price stability\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Eurosystem,
since it was drawn up on\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1496\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 the premise that eventually all EU \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 Member States would adopt the euro -\line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 states that \u8220?the primary objective of the\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 ESCB shall be to
maintain price \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 stability\u8221? and that,
\u8220?without prejudice \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 to the objective of
price stability, the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 ESCB shall support the general \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 economic policies in the Community \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 with a view to contributing to the\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb0\sl-171\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 achievement of the objectives
of the \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \qj \li1702\sb0\sl-160\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1585\sb105\sl-160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs15\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 1\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs13 In
June 2003 the European Convention on the future of Europe submitted a draft Treaty
establishing a Constitution \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 for Europe (\u8220?
draft Constitution\u8221?) to the European Council. At the end of 2003 the draft
Constitution formed the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 basis for discussion in
the Intergovernmental Conference on the Future of the Union. The key provisions for
the \par\pard\ql \li1789\sb1\sl-159\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 single
monetary policy were included in the draft Constitution without changes in
substance. \par\pard\ql \li1702\ri1586\sb1\sl-160\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 2\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs13 In
contrast to the ESCB as a whole, the ECB has been vested with legal personality by
the Treaty. Each of the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 NCBs has legal personality, as
provided by the national laws of the respective country. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 3\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs13 The
governors of the NCBs of those EU Member States that have not yet adopted the euro
do not participate \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 in monetary policy decision-making
for the euro area and such NCBs do not participate in the operational \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 implementation of these decisions.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx8050\posy13451\absw196 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 9
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Pg11}\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1590\colsr110\colno2\colw3252\co
lsr160\colno3\colw4678\colsr160\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li521\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li521\ri0\sb157\sl-180\slmult0\fi112 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Basic tasks of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the
Eurosystem\par\pard\column \ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Community as laid down in Article
2\u8221?.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb7\sl-249\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 In this respect, Article 2 of the Treaty \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex124 mentions as objectives of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Community, inter alia, \u8220?a high level of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 employment (\u8230?), sustainable and non-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 inflationary growth, a high degree of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 competitiveness and convergence of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 economic performance\u8221?. The Treaty \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 thus establishes a clear hierarchy of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 objectives for the Eurosystem and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 assigns overriding importance to price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 stability. By focusing the monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 policy of the ECB on this primary \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 objective, the Treaty makes it clear that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 ensuring price stability is the most \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 important contribution that monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 policy can make to achieving a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 favourable economic environment and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 a high level of employment.\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
According to the Treaty (Article 105 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 (2)), the basic
tasks to be carried out \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 through the Eurosystem
are:\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx205\tx208 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \u8226? the definition and implementation of \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 the monetary policy of the euro area; \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 \u8226? the conduct of foreign exchange \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 operations;\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\u8226? the holding and management of the\par\pard\qj \li197\ri1499\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 official foreign reserves of the
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Member States; and\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx207 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 \u8226? the promotion of the
smooth \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 operation of payment
systems.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1496\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
The ECB has the exclusive right to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 authorise the
issuance of banknotes \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 within the euro area. In
cooperation \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 with the NCBs, the ECB collects
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 statistical information necessary for
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 the performance of the tasks of the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 Eurosystem, either from national \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 authorities or directly from economic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 agents. Furthermore, the Eurosystem \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 shall contribute to the smooth conduct \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 of policies pursued by the authorities \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 in charge of the prudential supervision \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 of credit institutions and the stability \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 of the financial system. In accordance \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 with Article 6 of the Statute of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 ESCB, the ECB and, subject to its \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 approval, the NCBs may participate in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 international monetary institutions. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 The ECB shall decide how the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 Eurosystem shall be represented in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 field of international cooperation.
\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li2035\sb0\sl-241\slmult0\par\pard\li2035\sb0\sl-
241\slmult0\par\pard\li2035\sb0\sl-241\slmult0\par\pard\li2035\sb0\sl-
241\slmult0\par\pard\li2035\sb0\sl-241\slmult0\par\pard\li2035\sb0\sl-
241\slmult0\par\pard\li2035\sb117\sl-241\slmult0\fi850 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf18\f19\fs20 THE DECISION-MAKING BODIES OF THE
ECB\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li2035\sb0\sl-195\slmult0\par\pard\li2035\sb0\sl-
195\slmult0\par\pard\li2035\sb0\sl-195\slmult0\par\pard\li2035\sb109\sl-
195\slmult0\fi0\tx4053\tx6239 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf17\f18\fs17 EXECUTIVE BOARD\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
GOVERNING COUNCIL\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 GENERAL
COUNCIL\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li2035\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li2035\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li2035\sb103\sl-
161\slmult0\fi383\tx4467\tx6656 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf16\f17\fs14 President\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
President\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 President\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone
\li2035\sb1\sl-145\slmult0\fi234\tx4318\tx6507 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Vice-
President\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Vice-President\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Vice-President\par\pard\li1970\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1970\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1970\sb20\sl-
161\slmult0\fi92\tx4170 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Four other members\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Four
other members\par\pard\li1970\sb1\sl-146\slmult0\fi0\tx4071 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 of the Executive Board\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
of the Executive Board\par\pard\li4095\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li4095\sb131\sl-161\slmult0\fi2438 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 Governors\par\pard\li4095\sb0\sl-126\slmult0\fi335 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 Governors\par\pard\li4095\sb0\sl-126\slmult0\fi2379 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 of the NCBs\par\pard\li4095\sb0\sl-126\slmult0\fi0\tx6113
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 of the euro area NCBs\tab \dn2 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 of all EU Member
States\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
10\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg12}
{\bkmkend
Pg12}\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\co
lsr160\colno3\colw4677\colsr160\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li892\sb132\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Governing\par\pard\ql \li616\sb8\sl-172\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Council of the\par\pard\ql \li1298\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 ECB\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li490\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li490\sb107\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Executive
Board\par\pard\ql \li848\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 of the
ECB\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 The
decision-making bodies\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 of the ECB\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 There are two decision-making
bodies \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 of the ECB which are responsible
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 for the preparation, conduct and \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 implementation of the single monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 policy: the Governing Council of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 ECB and the Executive Board of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 ECB (see Chart 1.1). A third decision-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 making body of the ECB is the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 General Council.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri70\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 The
Governing Council of the ECB \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 consists of the six
members of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Executive Board and the governors
of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 the euro area NCBs (12 governors in \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 2003). Both the Governing Council \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 and the Executive Board are chaired \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 by the President of the ECB or, in his \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 absence, by the Vice-President. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 responsibilities of the Governing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Council are:\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb1\sl-
250\slmult0\tx207\tx207 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \u8226? to adopt the
guidelines and take the \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 decisions necessary
to ensure the \line \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 performance of the tasks
entrusted\par\pard\ql \li197\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 to
the Eurosystem; and\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb7\sl-249\slmult0\tx207 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \u8226? to formulate the monetary policy of \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the euro area.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb1\sl-
249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 In accordance with the Statute of the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 ESCB (Article 12.1), the formulation \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 of monetary policy for the euro area \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex122 includes taking decisions on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 \u8220?intermediate monetary objectives, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 key interest rates and the supply \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 of reserves\u8221? in the Eurosystem. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 Moreover, the Governing Council \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 shall establish the necessary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 guidelines for the implementation of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 those decisions.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri70\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 The
Executive Board of the ECB \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 consists of the
President and the Vice-\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 President and four other
members, all \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 appointed by common accord of
the\par\pard\column \ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 Heads of State or Government of
the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 euro
area countries. In accordance \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 with the Statute
of the ESCB (Articles \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 12.1 and 12.2), the
Executive Board:\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx208 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 \u8226? prepares the meetings of the \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Governing Council;\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx208 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 \u8226? implements monetary policy
in \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 accordance with the guidelines
and\par\pard\ql \li198\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex126 decisions
laid down by the\par\pard\ql \li198\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 Governing Council and, in so\par\pard\ql
\li198\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex123 doing, gives the
necessary\par\pard\ql \li198\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
instructions to the euro area NCBs;\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb7\sl-
249\slmult0\tx208 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 \u8226? is responsible for the
current \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 business of the ECB; and\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb1\sl-250\slmult0\tx208 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? assumes
certain powers delegated to \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 it by the
Governing Council, which\par\pard\ql \li198\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 may include powers of a regulatory\par\pard\ql
\li198\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 nature.\par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb64\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 The General Council of the ECB is\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 General Council\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 composed of the President and the Vice-\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 of the ECB\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 President of the ECB and the governors \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 of the NCBs of all EU Member States \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 (15 in \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 2003; \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 25 following the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 enlargement of the EU as of 1 May \line
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
2004). It will remain in existence for as \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 long
as there are Member States that\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 have not adopted the euro as their \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 currency. The General Council has no \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 responsibility for monetary policy\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 decisions in the euro
area. It carries out \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 those tasks inherited from
the European \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Monetary Institute
(EMI)\ul0\super\cf19\f20\fs15\ul0\super\cf19\f20\fs14
4\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 that still have\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 to be performed precisely because not
\line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 all the Member States have adopted the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 euro. In accordance with the Statute of\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 the ESCB (Articles 44,
45 and 47) and \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 the Treaty (Article 117(2)), the
General \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Council contributes to:\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx208 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 \u8226?
strengthening the coordination of \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 monetary
policies (of the Member\par\pard\ql \li198\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 States that have not yet adopted the\par\pard\ql
\li198\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 euro and the ECB), with the
aim of\par\pard\ql \li198\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 ensuring
price stability; \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \qj \li1702\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1586\sb71\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs15\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 4\ul0\nosupersub\cf6\f7\fs13 The
EMI was established on 1 January 1994 and went into liquidation following the
establishment of the ECB \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 on 1 June 1998. In
addition to preparing for the establishment of the ESCB, the EMI was responsible
for \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 strengthening central bank cooperation and
monetary policy coordination. For further details on the history of \par\pard\ql
\li1789\sb16\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Economic and Monetary
Union (EMU), see also the annex.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 11
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg13}
{\bkmkend
Pg13}\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw4942\colsr160\colno2\colw3188\co
lsr110\colno3\colw1390\colsr160\ql \li514\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li514\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li514\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex132
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 \u8226? the collection of
statistical\par\pard\ql \li1878\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
information;\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \u8226? the reporting activities of the ECB;\par\pard\ql
\li1878\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 and\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 \u8226? the necessary
preparations for\par\pard\ql \li1878\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 irrevocably fixing the exchange\par\pard\ql
\li1878\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 rates of Member States
that have not\par\pard\ql \li1878\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
yet adopted the euro.\par\pard\ql \li514\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb64\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Voting modalities in the Governing\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 Council\par\pard\ql
\li514\sb63\sl-184\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Basic principles\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The Statute of the ESCB states that
the\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb36\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 Governing
Council shall act by a\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 simple majority when taking decisions\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 on monetary policy and on
the other\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
tasks of the Eurosystem. Monetary\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 policy decisions in the euro area must\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 be based on a euro area
perspective.\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115
Each member of the Governing\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 Council has one vote. In the event of\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 a tie, the President of
the ECB has a\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
casting vote. When taking decisions,\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the members of the Governing Council\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 do not act as national
representatives\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 but in a fully independent, personal\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 capacity.\par\pard\ql
\li622\sb0\sl-184\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li792\sb133\sl-184\slmult0\tx1695 \up0
\expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Adjustment\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The Governing Council will
also need\par\pard\ql \li950\sb1\sl-179\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 of voting\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 to take decisions in a
timely and\par\pard\ql \li678\sb50\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 modalities in\par\pard\ql \li622\sb12\sl-
179\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 the Governing\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 efficient manner in an
enlarged euro\par\pard\ql \li1064\sb1\sl-180\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Council\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 area. To this end, prior
to the\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb63\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
accession of ten additional countries to\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 the EU on 1 May 2004, on 21 March\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 2003 the European Council
approved\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 an
amendment to the Statute of the\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 ESCB which provides for an\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 adjustment of the voting
modalities in\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
the Governing Council.\ul0\super\cf6\f7\fs20 5 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 According\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 to the new voting system, the six\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 members of the Executive
Board will\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
maintain a permanent voting right, but\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 the voting rights of NCB Governors\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 will be subject to a
rotation scheme\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 once the number of euro area countries\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 exceeds 15. However, all
Governors\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 will participate in all
meetings of the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 Governing Council, irrespective of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 whether they hold a voting right at the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 time.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Central bank independence\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb7\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The institutional framework for the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 single monetary policy establishes a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 central bank that is independent from \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 political influence. A large body of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 theoretical analysis, supported by \line \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 substantial empirical evidence, indicates \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 that central bank independence is \line \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 conducive to maintaining price stability.\par\pard\qj
\li5102\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 Article 108 of the Treaty lays down the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 important principle of central bank \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 independence. When exercising the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 powers and carrying out the tasks and \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 duties conferred upon them, neither the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 ECB nor the NCBs, nor any member \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 of their decision-making bodies, are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 allowed to seek or take instructions \line \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 from Community institutions or bodies, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 from any government of a Member \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 State or from any other body. The \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 Community institutions and bodies and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 the governments of the Member States \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 also have to respect this principle and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 must not seek to influence the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 members of the decision-making \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 bodies of the ECB.\par\pard\qj \li5102\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116
There are also other provisions to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 safeguard the
independence of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Eurosystem and the decision-
making \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 bodies of the ECB. For instance, the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 ECB\u8217?s financial arrangements are kept
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 separate from those of the European \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 Community. The ECB has its own \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 budget, and its capital is subscribed \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 and paid up by the euro area NCBs. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Long terms of office for the members \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 of the Governing Council, and a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 rule stipulating that members of\par\pard\column \ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb12\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Independence\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri437\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 from political \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 influence\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb24\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Further\par\pard\qj \li20\ri342\sb3\sl-179\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 provisions that \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 help
to\par\pard\ql \li20\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
safeguard\par\pard\ql \li20\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
independence \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \qj \li1700\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1595\sb9\sl-
180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 12
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172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Provisions to\par\pard\ql \li1112\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 ensure\par\pard\ql \li607\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 accountability\par\pard\column \ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 the Executive Board cannot
be\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 re-
appointed, also contribute to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex122 minimising
potential political \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 influence on individual
members of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 the ECB\u8217?s decision-making
bodies. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 Furthermore, the Eurosystem\u8217?s
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 independence is preserved by the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Treaty prohibition of any provision of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 central bank credit to the public sector \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 (see Box 2.1).\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 The Treaty also contains provisions
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 ensuring that the pursuit of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 objective of price stability is fully \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 respected by the single exchange rate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 policy. While the Treaty foresees that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 decisions on foreign exchange policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 are a shared responsibility of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 ECOFIN Council and the ECB, its \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 provisions ensure that foreign \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 exchange policy is fully consistent \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 with the primary objective of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex125 single monetary policy. First, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 Article 4 of the Treaty explicitly states \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 that the primary objective of both the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 single monetary policy and exchange \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 rate policy shall be to maintain price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 stability. Second, as regards the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 overall framework within which \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 exchange rate policy is to be \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 conducted, the Treaty requires that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 decisions in this area be without \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 prejudice to the primary objective. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 Finally, the sole competence for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex125 deciding on and carrying out \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 operations in the foreign exchange \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 market lies with the Eurosystem.\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Reporting obligations\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri70\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 To retain legitimacy, an independent \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 central bank must be accountable to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 democratic institutions and the general \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 public for its actions in the pursuit of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 its mandate. Without encroaching on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 the Eurosystem\u8217?s independence, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Article 15 of the Statute of the ESCB \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 imposes precise reporting obligations \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 on the ECB. The ECB has to publish\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 quarterly reports on the activities of\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 the Eurosystem as well
as a weekly \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 consolidated financial statement. In
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 addition, it has to provide an annual \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 report on its activities and on the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 monetary policy of the previous and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 the current year. The annual report has \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 to be addressed to the European \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 Parliament, the EU Council, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 European Commission and the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 European Council. In order to achieve \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 the highest level of transparency, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 ECB has decided to go beyond these \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 statutory reporting requirements (see \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Chapter 3).
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 13
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1.1\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Key provisions from the Treaty and the Statute of
the ESCB \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb196\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
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from: www.eu.int and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 www.ecb.int.
\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-184\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb121\sl-184\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf23\f24\fs16 1. EXCERPTS FROM THE
TREATY ESTABLISHING THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY \par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-
195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb112\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
7\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 Article 2 \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1619\sb20\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 The Community shall have as its task, by establishing
a common market and an \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 economic and monetary
union and by implementing common policies or activities \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 referred to in Articles 3 and 4, to promote throughout the
Community a harmonious, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 balanced and
sustainable development of economic activities, a high level of \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 employment and of social protection, equality between
men and women, sustainable \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 and non-inflationary
growth, a high degree of competitiveness and convergence of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 economic performance, a high level of protection and
improvement of the quality of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 the environment,
the raising of the standard of living and quality of life, and economic \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 and social cohesion and solidarity among Member
States. \par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb101\sl-
195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 Article
4 \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb0\sl-252\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 1. For the purposes set out in Article 2, the
activities of the Member States and the \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Community
shall include, as provided in this Treaty and in accordance with the timetable \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 set out therein, the adoption of an economic policy which
is based on the close \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 coordination of Member
States\u8217? economic policies, on the internal market and on the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 definition of common objectives, and conducted in
accordance with the principle of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 an open market
economy with free competition. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 2. Concurrently with the foregoing, and as provided
in this Treaty and in accordance with \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 the
timetable and the procedures set out therein, these activities shall include the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 irrevocable fixing of exchange rates leading to
the introduction of a single currency, the \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 ECU,
and the definition and conduct of a single monetary policy and exchange-rate policy
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 the primary objective of both of which shall be
to maintain price stability and, without \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
prejudice to this objective, to support the general economic policies in the
Community, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 in accordance with the principle of
an open market economy with free competition. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 3. These activities of the Member States
and the Community shall entail compliance \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 with the
following guiding principles: stable prices, sound public finances and monetary
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 conditions and a sustainable balance of payments.
\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb99\sl-195\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex97 \ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 Article 105 \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1619\sb0\sl-252\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 1. The primary objective of the ESCB shall be to
maintain price stability. Without \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 prejudice to
the objective of price stability, the ESCB shall support the general economic \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 policies in the Community with a view to contributing
to the achievement of the \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 objectives of the
Community as laid down in Article 2. The ESCB shall act in accordance \line \up0
\expndtw-3\charscalex100 with the principle of an open market economy with free
competition, favouring an efficient \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 allocation
of resources, and in compliance with the principles set out in Article 4.
\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb34\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 2. The basic
tasks to be carried out through the ESCB shall be: \par\pard\ql \li1757\sb65\sl-
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monetary policy of the Community; \par\pard\ql \li1757\sb45\sl-195\slmult0 \up0
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with the provisions of Article 111; \par\pard\ql \li1757\sb65\sl-195\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \u8226? to hold and manage the official foreign
reserves of the Member States; \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 14
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{\bkmkend Pg16}\par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-
195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb154\sl-
195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 \u8226? to
promote the smooth operation of payment systems. \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1559\sb28\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 3. The third
indent of paragraph 2 shall be without prejudice to the holding and management \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 by the governments of Member States of foreign-exchange
working balances. \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb58\sl-195\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 4. The ECB shall be consulted: \par\pard\ql
\li1758\sb45\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \u8226? on any proposed
Community act in its fields of competence; \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1619\sb20\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \u8226? by national authorities regarding
any draft legislative provision in its fields of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
competence, but within the limits and under the conditions set out by the
Council \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 in accordance with the procedure laid
down in Article 107(6). The ECB may submit \par\pard\qj \li1917\ri1618\sb0\sl-
260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 opinions to the appropriate Community
institutions or bodies or to national authorities \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 on
matters in its fields of competence. \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 5. The ESCB shall contribute to the smooth conduct of
policies pursued by the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 competent authorities relating
to the prudential supervision of credit institutions and \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 the stability of the financial system. \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1618\sb0\sl-246\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 6. The Council may,
acting unanimously on a proposal from the Commission and after \line \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 consulting the ECB and after receiving the assent of the European
Parliament, confer upon \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 the ECB specific tasks
concerning policies relating to the prudential supervision of credit \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 institutions and other financial institutions with the
exception of insurance undertakings. \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-195\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1758\sb87\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex97
\ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 Article 107 \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb65\sl-
195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 1. The ESCB
shall be composed of the ECB and of the national central banks. \par\pard\ql
\li1758\sb45\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 2. The ECB shall have
legal personality. \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1619\sb28\sl-240\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 3. The ESCB shall be governed by the decision-making bodies
of the ECB which shall \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 be the Governing Council and
the Executive Board. [\u8230?] \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-195\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1758\sb103\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex97
\ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 Article 108 \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1617\sb22\sl-
248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 When
exercising the powers and carrying out the tasks and duties conferred upon them
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 by this Treaty and the Statute of the ESCB,
neither the ECB, nor a national central bank, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
nor any member of their decision-making bodies shall seek or take instructions from
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Community institutions or bodies, from any
government of a Member State or from \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 any other
body. The Community institutions and bodies and the governments of the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 Member States undertake to respect this principle and
not to seek to influence the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 members of the
decision-making bodies of the ECB or of the national central banks \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 in the performance of their tasks. \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri2209\sb243\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf23\f24\fs16 2. EXCERPTS FROM PROTOCOL (NO 18) ON THE STATUTE OF
THE EUROPEAN SYSTEM \up0 \expndtw-6\charscalex100 OF CENTRAL BANKS AND OF THE
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-195\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1758\sb99\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 Article 12 (Responsibilities of the decision-making
bodies) \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb0\sl-251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 1. The Governing Council shall adopt the guidelines
and take the decisions necessary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 to ensure the
performance of the tasks entrusted to the ESCB under this Treaty and this \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Statute. The Governing Council shall formulate the
monetary policy of the Community \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 including, as
appropriate, decisions relating to intermediate monetary objectives, key \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 interest rates and the supply of reserves in the ESCB, and
shall establish the necessary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 guidelines for
their implementation. The Executive Board shall implement monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 policy in accordance with the guidelines and decisions laid
down by the Governing \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 Council. In doing so the
Executive Board shall give the necessary instructions to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 national central banks. In addition the Executive Board may
have certain powers \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 delegated to it where the
Governing Council so decides. To the extent deemed possible
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 15
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg17}
{\bkmkend Pg17}\par\pard\qj \li1757\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1757\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1757\ri1620\sb194\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 and appropriate and without
prejudice to the provisions of this Article, the ECB shall \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 have recourse to the national central banks to carry out
operations which form part of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the tasks of the
ESCB. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb19\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
2. The Executive Board shall have the responsibility for the preparation of
meetings \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 of the Governing Council. [\u8230?]
\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb103\sl-195\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 Article 15 (Reporting
commitments) \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1620\sb28\sl-240\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 1. The ECB shall draw up and
publish reports on the activities of the ESCB at least \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 quarterly. \par\pard\ql \li1757\sb58\sl-195\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 2. A consolidated financial statement of the ESCB shall be
published each week. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb0\sl-253\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 3. In accordance with Article 113 of this Treaty, the ECB
shall address an annual report \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 on the activities of
the ESCB and on the monetary policy of both the previous and the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 current year to the European Parliament, the Council and
the Commission, and also to \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 the European Council.
\par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 4. The
reports and statements referred to in this Article shall be made available to
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 interested parties free of charge. \par\pard\ql
\li1757\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb79\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 Article 17 (Accounts with the ECB and
the national central banks) \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1620\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 In order to conduct their
operations, the ECB and the national central \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 banks may open accounts for credit institutions, public
entities and other market \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 participants and
accept assets, including book entry securities, as collateral. \par\pard\ql
\li1757\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb101\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 Article 18 (Open market and credit
operations) \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1618\sb28\sl-240\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 1. In order to achieve the
objectives of the ESCB and to carry out its tasks, the ECB \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 and the national central banks may: \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1619\sb12\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \u8226? operate in
the financial markets by buying and selling outright (spot and forward) \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 or under repurchase agreement and by lending or
borrowing claims and marketable \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 instruments,
whether in Community or in non-Community currencies, as well as \par\pard\ql
\li1915\sb36\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 precious metals;
\par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1621\sb28\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\u8226? conduct credit operations with credit institutions and other market
participants, with \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 lending being based on adequate
collateral. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb12\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 2. The ECB shall establish general principles for open
market and credit operations \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 carried out by itself or
the national central banks, including for the announcement of \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 conditions under which they stand ready to enter into such
transactions. \par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb101\sl-
195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-6\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 Article 19
(Minimum reserves) \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1618\sb0\sl-252\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 1. Subject to Article 2, the
ECB may require credit institutions established in Member \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 States to hold minimum reserve on accounts with the ECB and
national central banks \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 in pursuance of monetary policy
objectives. Regulations concerning the calculation and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
determination of the required minimum reserves may be established by the
Governing \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Council. In cases of non-compliance the ECB
shall be entitled to levy penalty interest \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 and to
impose other sanctions with comparable effect. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1618\sb0\sl-
253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 2. For the application of this Article,
the Council shall, in accordance with the procedure \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
laid down in Article 42, define the basis for minimum reserves and the maximum \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 permissible ratios between those reserves and their basis,
as well as the appropriate \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 sanctions in cases of non-
compliance. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 16
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg18}
{\bkmkend Pg18}\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-380\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1740\sb147\sl-380\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex97
\ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs29 2 THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL STRUCTURE OF \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex95 THE EURO AREA \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-251\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1532\sb156\sl-251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf14\f15\fs20 The pursuit of the objective of price stability
requires an understanding of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 factors that
shape the price formation process, including the transmission of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 monetary policy. This chapter provides an overview of the
main economic and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 financial structures of the
euro area economy.The key characteristics of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
real economy are considered first, focusing on the composition of output, \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 demographic and key labour market features, fiscal
policy, as well as patterns \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 of trade between the
euro area and the rest of the world. Following on from \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 this,the key characteristics of the financial structure are
described by examining \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 the money and capital
markets and the main financial institutions involved, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 distinguishing monetary financial institutions \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 (MFIs) from other financial \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb7\sl-
230\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 intermediaries
(OFIs).\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\
colsr160\colno3\colw4677\colsr160\ql \li544\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li544\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li544\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li544\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li544\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li544\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li544\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li633\sb131\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The euro area\par\pard\qj \li544\ri0\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0\tx595\tx723 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 economy is the \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 second largest \line \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
in the world\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb138\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
7\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 2.1 KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
REAL\par\pard\ql \li20\sb43\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
ECONOMY\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri70\sb8\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 While the
individual economies that \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 now comprise the euro
area may be \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 considered relatively small and open
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 economies, the euro area as a whole \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 forms a large, much more closed \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 economy. Therefore, the structural \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 features of the euro area are better \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 compared with those of the United \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 States or Japan than with those of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 individual euro area countries. A \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 number of key macroeconomic\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb107\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 characteristics of the euro
area are\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
presented in Table 2.1.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb64\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Measured in terms of
population, the\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
Population\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 euro area is the largest developed \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 economy in the world: in 2002 it had \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 a total population of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 308
million,\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
somewhat larger than that of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 United
States and more than twice as \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 large as the
population of Japan.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Chart 2.1 shows the differences in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 age structure of the populations of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 euro area and the United States. On\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 average, the euro area
countries have \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \ql \li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb33\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Chart
2.1\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Breakdown by age of total population in 2002
\par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb89\sl-161\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf26\f27\fs13 (as a percentage of
total population) \par\pard\ql \li2358\sb119\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 euro area \par\pard\ql
\li2358\sb19\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 United States
\par\pard\li1779\sb100\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7916 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
25\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 25\par\pard\li1779\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1779\sb96\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7916 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 20\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 20\par\pard\li1779\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1779\sb97\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7916 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 15\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 15\par\pard\li1779\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1779\sb95\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7916 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 10\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 10\par\pard\li1779\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1779\sb97\sl-161\slmult0\fi68\tx7906 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 5\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 5\par\pard\li1848\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1848\sb96\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7906 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 0\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 0\par\pard\li1848\sb1\sl-
131\slmult0\fi146\tx3091\tx3931\tx4772\tx5614\tx6453\tx7054 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 < 15 years old\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 15-24\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 25-34\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 35-44\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 45-54\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 55-64\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 > 64 years old\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1702\sb155\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Sources:
Eurostat and US Census Bureau. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 17

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{\shp
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\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf30\f31\fs19 %\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 31.2\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 12.4\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 5.8\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx4649\tx6095\tx6873\tx7756 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Current
account balance\ul0\super\cf31\f32\fs15\ul0\super\cf31\f32\fs14 7)\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf30\f31\fs19 % of GDP\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 0.9\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 -4.6\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 2.8\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri2673\sb122\sl-180\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Sources: Eurostat, IMF,
European Commission,
OECD, Reuters, ECB and ECB calculations. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Note:
For all euro area aggregates contained in this table, data for Greece are included.
\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb16\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 1) Euro area:
annual average; United States: mid-year; Japan: 1 October. \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb19\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 2)2001 figures.
\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb19\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 3) Data for
United States and Japan converted into euro at OECD purchasing power parities
(PPPs). \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb19\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 4)
Based on value added at current prices. \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb19\sl-161\slmult0
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age population (those aged between 15 and 64). \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb19\sl-
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defined in Council Regulation (EC) No 3605/93. \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb19\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 7) Balance of payments data, only extra-
euro area trade flows for the euro area. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1587\sb4\sl-
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf27\f28\fs18 18
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg20}
{\bkmkend Pg20}\par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb206\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Chart
2.2\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Unemployment in the euro area, the United States
and Japan \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb109\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf26\f27\fs13 (as a
percentage of the labour force; annual data) \par\pard\ql \li2466\sb139\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 euro
area \par\pard\ql \li2466\ri3364\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
United States \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Japan \par\pard\li1801\sb79\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7876 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 12.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 12.0\par\pard\li1801\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1801\sb131\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7876 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 10.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 10.0\par\pard\li1801\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1801\sb130\sl-
161\slmult0\fi61\tx7876 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 8.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 8.0\par\pard\li1801\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1801\sb131\sl-
161\slmult0\fi61\tx7876 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 6.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 6.0\par\pard\li1801\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1801\sb129\sl-
161\slmult0\fi61\tx7876 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 4.0\par\pard\li1801\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1801\sb131\sl-
161\slmult0\fi61\tx7876 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 2.0\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb130\sl-
161\slmult0\fi161\tx7876 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 0.0\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 0.0\par\pard\li1702\sb1\sl-150\slmult0\fi334 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb47\sl-161\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
Source: European
Commission.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols4\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3
251\colsr160\colno3\colw3188\colsr110\colno4\colw1389\colsr160\ql \li618\sb0\sl-
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1007\sb2\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Share
in\par\pard\ql \li854\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 world
GDP\par\pard\qj \li618\sb0\sl-179\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li618\sb0\sl-179\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li618\sb0\sl-179\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li618\sb0\sl-179\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li618\sb0\sl-179\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li618\sb0\sl-179\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li618\sb0\sl-179\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li618\sb0\sl-179\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li618\sb0\sl-179\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li618\sb0\sl-179\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li618\sb0\sl-179\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li618\sb0\sl-179\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li618\sb0\sl-179\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li618\ri0\sb71\sl-
179\slmult0\tx822 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Service sector \line\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 has largest\par\pard\ql \li665\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 share of euro\par\pard\ql \li945\sb8\sl-172\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 area GDP\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb125\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 a slightly lower share of very young\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 people and a clearly
higher share of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 old people than the United
States.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
The euro area had a 15.7% share of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 world GDP in \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 2002 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 (expressed
in\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 terms of
purchasing power parity), \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 compared with 21.1%
for the United \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 States and 7.1% for Japan. The
shares \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 of the individual euro area countries
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 were significantly smaller: the largest \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 economy within the euro area \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 accounted for 4.4% of world GDP in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 2002.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 The
structure of production in the euro \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 area
closely resembles that in the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 United States
and Japan. In all three \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 economies, the service
sector accounts \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 for the largest share of total
output. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 There is, however, an important
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 difference in the shares of the public \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 and private sectors in the overall \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 services sector in the United States \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 and the euro area. Specifically, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 public services sector in the United \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 States is relatively small, while the\par\pard\column
\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb125\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 same sector accounts for a much larger\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 share of the euro area
economy. In \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 both these economies and in Japan \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 the industrial sector accounts for the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 second largest share of total output. \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 Given the highly developed nature \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 of these economies, the share of \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 agriculture, fishing and forestry is \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 relatively small in all three.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb19\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 2.2 LABOUR MARKET\par\pard\qj \li5103\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb8\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The unemployment rate in the
euro \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 area \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 - the number of
unemployed\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb1\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
persons as a share of the labour force \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 - reached
very high levels in the 1980s \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 and the 1990s and
has on average been \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 markedly higher than that
in the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 United States (see Chart 2.2). This
gap \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 reflects structural differences between
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the labour markets in the United States \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 and those in the euro area which have \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 led to a higher level of structural \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 unemployment in the euro area. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex122 Reforms affecting institutional \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 features of labour markets were \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 implemented in euro area countries
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
19\par\pard\column \ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
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218\slmult0\par\pard\li502\sb7\sl-218\slmult0\fi1254\tx2690 \up0
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and age group in the euro area and\par\pard\li502\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi2190
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 the United States in 2002\par\pard\li502\sb96\sl-
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percentage of the working age population)\par\pard\li502\sb76\sl-
184\slmult0\fi3592\tx6514 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf34\f35\fs15 Euro area\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 United
States\par\pard\li502\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0\fi2896\tx4166\tx5168\tx5950\tx6717\tx7747 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
males\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 females\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
total\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 males\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
females\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 total\par\pard\li502\sb78\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1254\tx3440\tx4347\tx5141\tx5991\tx6898\tx7720 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 All age groups\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 77.5\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 58.8\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 68.2\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 83.0\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 70.1\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
76.4\par\pard\li502\sb32\sl-
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1)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 47.7\tab \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex102 74.8\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 83.3\tab \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex102 74.1\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 84.7\tab \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex102 82.1\par\pard\li502\sb32\sl-
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\expndtw0\charscalex102 55-59\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 68.4\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 42.7\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 55.4\tab \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex102 14.3\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 22.5\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 57.6\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 44.1\tab \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Sources: Eurostat and Bureau
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\expndtw0\charscalex102 1) US data refer to the 16 to 24 age
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extents. In some cases these reforms\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
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structural rigidities remain and these\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
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persons in\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Relatively low\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 It is remarkable that, in
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\expndtw0\charscalex108 participation rate \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 (see
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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 While the gap has narrowed somewhat\par\pard\ql
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\expndtw0\charscalex115 the gap compared with the United\par\pard\ql
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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 11 percentage\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 points for women, around twice the\par\pard\ql
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lower overall\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
labour force participation rate in the\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 euro area compared with the United\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 States mainly reflects
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the youngest and oldest age groups.\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 In general, younger Europeans\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 participate significantly
less in the\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
labour force than their American
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
20\par\pard\column \ql \li20\sb169\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 counterparts. This could be linked to\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 differences in the
traditions and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 structures of the education and
social \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 systems. In the euro area people
also\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 tend
to leave the labour force at a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 younger age than
people in the United \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 States. By contrast,
participation\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 rates for those aged 25 to 44 years are \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 broadly similar.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 The
lower participation rate combined\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Euro area\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 with
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 employment\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 rate is also\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
138\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
results in a much lower employment\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 relatively low\par\pard\ql \li20\sb19\sl-
208\slmult0\tx484 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
rate\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 (measured as the number of\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb8\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 employed persons as a share of the \line \up0
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Japan. While in the \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 euro area the employment
rate was just \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 above 62% in 2002, in the
United\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb1\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
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\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 which an economy adjusts to adverse \line
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\expndtw0\charscalex105 rigidities in the labour market tend to \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex102 can grow without fuelling inflationary \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex105 inflation. It is therefore important for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 monetary authorities to follow fiscal \line \up0 \expndtw-
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\expndtw0\charscalex108 many channels through which fiscal \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 policy affects the economy and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 prices. The level and composition of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 government expenditure and revenue, \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex102 debt, are key variables in this process.\par\pard\qj
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\expndtw0\charscalex122 Budgetary policies remain the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 exclusive competence of the Member \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 States in Stage Three of EMU. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 However, there are a number of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 institutional arrangements at the EU \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 level in order to ensure sound public \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 finances (see Box 2.1). In particular, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex126 the Treaty\u8217?s excessive deficit \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 procedure, further developed and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 clarified in the Stability and Growth \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 Pact, aims to limit the risks to price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 stability that might otherwise arise \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 from national fiscal policies. For \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 example, an excessive increase in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 government spending at a time when \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 the economy is already operating at \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 close to full capacity could, by \line \up0
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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 Fiscal discipline is therefore a basic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 component of macroeconomic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 stability. As well as unbalanced \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 budgets, high levels of government \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 debt can also be detrimental. If a \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex110 situation can become unsustainable \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex115 High levels of debt may also have \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 adverse effects on the real economy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 and the financial environment. In \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 particular, excessive recourse to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 capital markets by governments tends \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 to raise the cost of capital and this may \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 reduce private investment (\u8220?crowding \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 out\u8221?). Given the potential problems \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 associated with fiscal imbalances, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 avoidance of excessive deficits \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 represents an important commitment \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex127 to maintaining fiscal policies \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 conducive to overall macroeconomic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 stability.\par\pard\qj \li5103\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
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sector) \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 makes up a larger share of the euro
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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 United States or Japan. Government \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 expenditure in the euro area accounted \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 for 48% of GDP in 2002, while the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 ratio of general government revenue to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 GDP was 46%. By contrast, in the \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex100 GDP measured in terms of expenditure \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex101 In \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 2002 Japan recorded a ratio
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\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb1\sl-172\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The
relatively\par\pard\ql \li20\ri279\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
large share of \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 government \line \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 expenditure in \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 euro area GDP...

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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg23}
{\bkmkend Pg23}\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-
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2.3\ul0\nosupersub\cf28\f29\fs19 General government deficit and debt in the euro
area \par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb109\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf38\f39\fs13 (as a
percentage of GDP) \par\pard\ql \li2373\ri3142\sb84\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 debt (right-hand scale) \line \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 deficit (left-hand scale) \par\pard\li1840\sb96\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7908 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 6\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 80\par\pard\li1840\sb119\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7908 \dn2 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 5\tab \up3 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 70\par\pard\ql \li7908\sb39\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 60 \par\pard\li1840\sb21\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7908 \up3 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4\tab \dn2 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 50\par\pard\li1840\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1840\sb10\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7908 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 3\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 40\par\pard\li1840\sb125\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7908 \dn2 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 2\tab \up3 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 30\par\pard\ql \li7908\sb39\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 20 \par\pard\li647\sb14\sl-
161\slmult0\fi1193\tx7908 \up2 \expndtw0\charscalex102 1\tab \dn2
\expndtw0\charscalex102 10\par\pard\li647\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li647\sb9\sl-
161\slmult0\fi1193\tx7901 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 0\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 0\par\pard\li647\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\fi1279 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002\par\pard\li647\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li647\sb10\sl-
161\slmult0\fi1053 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Sources: European Commission, OECD
and ECB calculations.\par\pard\li647\sb19\sl-161\slmult0\fi1053 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Note: Deficit data exclude the proceeds from UMTS licences,
which were particularly significant in 2000 (1.1% of
GDP).\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols4\colno1\colw1590\colsr110\colno2\colw3252\co
lsr160\colno3\colw3188\colsr110\colno4\colw1390\colsr160\ql \li647\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li647\sb32\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
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\up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 large shares\par\pard\ql \li1068\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 of final\par\pard\qj \li702\ri0\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0\fi68\tx879 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 government \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 consumption \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 and
social\par\pard\qj \li757\ri0\sb0\sl-180\slmult0\tx815 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 transfers to \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
households\par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li754\sb2\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Government\par\pard\ql \li1035\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 revenue\par\pard\column \ql
\li20\sb096\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The relatively large share of\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri72\sb7\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 government expenditure
in GDP in the \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 euro area reflects in particular
the large \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 shares of both final government
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 consumption and social transfers to \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 households. These country differences \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 are partly caused by differences in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 distribution of functions between \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex108 systems in Europe, the age structure \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 of the euro area population also \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 contributes to the high level of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 government expenditure. As shown in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 Chart 2.1, the population of the euro \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 area is, on average, older than that of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 the United States and this affects \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 pension and health expenditure. Unless \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 policy reforms are undertaken in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 affected Member States, the situation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 will be exacerbated in the future by the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 expected ageing of the population.\par\pard\qj
\li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 With regard to the structure of \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex125 relies more heavily on social \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex105 of revenue in the euro area, while the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 United States relies more heavily than
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf27\f28\fs18
22\par\pard\column \ql \li20\sb156\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 the euro area on direct taxation as a\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 share of total tax
revenue.\par\pard\qj \li5102\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 Government expenditure exceeded \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 government revenue in the euro area \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 throughout the period from \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
1970\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0\tx326 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
to\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 2002. Accordingly, the
general\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
government budget balance recorded a \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 deficit in each
year throughout that \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 period. The deficit widened to
close to \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 6.0% of GDP in \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 1993, but then\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb0\sl-
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 above the 3% of GDP reference value \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 referred to in the Treaty (see Box 2.1).\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Turning to general
government gross \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 debt, for the euro area as a
whole it \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 reached a peak of 75.4% of GDP in \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 1996/97, after having risen rapidly \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 over the previous two decades. It fell \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 continuously thereafter, to stand at \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 69.2% of GDP in 2002. The general \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 government gross debt-to-GDP ratio \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 in the United States was somewhat \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 lower, at 59% in 2002, while in Japan \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 the ratio was 154%.\par\pard\column \ql \li8390\sb0\sl-
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\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2865\shptop4309\shpright2865\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3043\shptop4309\shpright3043\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\*\shpinst\shpleft3219\shptop4309\shpright3219\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\*\shpinst\shpleft4638\shptop4309\shpright4638\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
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{\*\shpinst\shpleft4814\shptop4309\shpright4814\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\*\shpinst\shpleft4992\shptop4309\shpright4992\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6409\shptop4309\shpright6409\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6587\shptop4309\shpright6587\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6763\shptop4309\shpright6763\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6941\shptop4309\shpright6941\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7117\shptop4309\shpright7117\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7294\shptop4309\shpright7294\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7472\shptop4309\shpright7472\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7648\shptop4309\shpright7648\shpbottom2325\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1980\shptop3977\shpright7826\shpbottom3977\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1980\shptop3646\shpright7826\shpbottom3646\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1980\shptop3316\shpright7826\shpbottom3316\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1980\shptop2985\shpright7826\shpbottom2985\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1980\shptop2654\shpright7826\shpbottom2654\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1988\shptop4317\shpright7835\shpbottom4317\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1988\shptop2331\shpright2028\shpbottom4317\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn pVerticies}{\sv 8;3;(0,0);(0,1986);(40,1986)}}
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7835\shptop2331\shpright7835\shpbottom4317\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1988\shptop4358\shpright1988\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2166\shptop4358\shpright2166\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2342\shptop4358\shpright2342\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2520\shptop4358\shpright2520\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2874\shptop4358\shpright2874\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3052\shptop4358\shpright3052\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3228\shptop4358\shpright3228\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3405\shptop4358\shpright3405\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3583\shptop4358\shpright3583\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3759\shptop4358\shpright3759\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3937\shptop4358\shpright3937\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4115\shptop4358\shpright4115\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4291\shptop4358\shpright4291\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4469\shptop4358\shpright4469\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4647\shptop4358\shpright4647\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4822\shptop4358\shpright4822\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5000\shptop4358\shpright5000\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5176\shptop4358\shpright5176\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5354\shptop4358\shpright5354\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5532\shptop4358\shpright5532\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5708\shptop4358\shpright5708\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5886\shptop4358\shpright5886\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6064\shptop4358\shpright6064\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6240\shptop4358\shpright6240\shpbottom4318\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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280\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1557\sb169\sl-280\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Box 2.1\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19
Institutional arrangements at the EU level for sound public finances \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 While the Treaty
institutes a single monetary policy, it maintains national \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 responsibilities for other economic (e.g. fiscal and
structural) policies. However, it \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 stipulates that
Member States shall \u8220?regard their economic policies as a matter of \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 common concern\u8221? (Article 99 of the Treaty).
\par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb246\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 In
addition, the Treaty contains several provisions aimed at ensuring sound government
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 finances in Stage Three of EMU, given that
fiscal policy remains the responsibility of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 the
national governments. One relates to the excessive deficit procedure, as defined
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 in Article 104 and a protocol annexed to the
Treaty. This procedure lays down the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 conditions
that must prevail for a budgetary position to be judged sound. Article 104 \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 decrees that \u8220?Member States shall avoid
excessive government deficits\u8221?. Compliance \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
with this requirement is assessed on the basis of a reference value for the
government \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3%, and a
reference value for the government debt-to-GDP \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
ratio of 60%. Under conditions defined in the Treaty and further specified in
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 Pact, such as an annual fall of real GDP of
at least 2%, deficit or debt ratios above \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 the
reference values may be tolerated, and will not be considered as implying the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 existence of an excessive deficit. Should the EU
Council decide that an excessive deficit \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 exists
in a certain country, the excessive deficit procedure provides for further steps
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 to be taken, including sanctions.
\par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb250\sl-251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 The
Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) was adopted in 1997, and complements and further
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 clarifies the implementation of the excessive
deficit procedure. It consists of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 Resolution
of the European Council on the SGP, the \u8220?Council Regulation on the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions
and the surveillance and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 coordination of
economic policies\u8221? and the \u8220?Council Regulation on speeding up and \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit
procedure\u8221?. By agreeing to the \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 SGP,
Member States have committed themselves to pursuing the medium-term objective \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 of budgetary positions \u8220?close to balance or in
surplus\u8221?. The idea is that having such \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
positions would allow them to deal with the budgetary impact of normal cyclical
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 fluctuations without breaching the 3% of GDP
reference value. \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1617\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 In a framework of multilateral surveillance, euro area
participants are obliged to submit \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 stability
programmes to the EU Council and the European Commission. The non\up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 participating Member States have to submit convergence
programmes. Both of these \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 contain the information
needed to assess the budgetary adjustments envisaged over the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 medium term to reach the close-to-balance or in-surplus
position. \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 An essential complement to these ways of promoting
stability-oriented fiscal policies \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 is the
Treaty\u8217?s \u8220?no bail-out\u8221? clause. Article 103 (1) of the Treaty
states: \u8220?The Community \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 shall not be liable
for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by
public law, or public \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 undertakings of any Member
State (\u8230?). A Member State shall not be liable for or \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 assume the commitments of central governments, regional,
local or other public \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 authorities, other bodies
governed by public law, or public undertakings of another \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 Member State\u8221?. This clause ensures that the
responsibility for repaying public debt \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 remains
national. It thus encourages prudent fiscal policies at the national level.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 23
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg25}
{\bkmkend Pg25}\par\pard\qj \li1757\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1757\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1757\ri1605\sb194\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Further provisions
contributing to fiscal discipline are the prohibitions of monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 financing of budget deficits and of any form of privileged
access for the public sector \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 to financial
institutions. Article 101 of the Treaty forbids the ECB and the NCBs to provide
\line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 monetary financing for public deficits using
\u8220?overdraft facilities or any other type of credit \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 facility with the ECB or with the central banks of the Member
States\u8221?. Article 102 of the \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Treaty
prohibits any measure that may establish privileged access to financial
institutions \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 for governments and Community
institutions or bodies. In addition to increasing the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 incentives to pursue sound public finances and prudent
fiscal policies, these provisions \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 contribute to
the credibility of the single monetary policy in the pursuit of price stability.
\par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 The
Treaty also decrees that the EU Council - upon a recommendation from the \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 European Commission - shall adopt Broad Economic Policy
Guidelines (BEPGs). These \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Guidelines provide the
framework for the definition of economic policy objectives and \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 orientations for the Member States and the European Community.
Insofar as all Member \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 States face broadly the
same challenges and economic policy needs, the BEPGs set out \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 a number of general orientations that apply to all Member
States. At the same time, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 reflecting diversity
among the countries in terms of economic performance and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 prospects as well as structures and institutions, the BEPGs
also contain country-specific \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 recommendations.
In accordance with the Treaty, the BEPGs have to respect the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 independence of the Eurosystem in the pursuit of its
primary objective of maintaining \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 price stability
and must not seek to influence its monetary
policy.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1590\colsr110\colno2\colw3252\
colsr160\colno3\colw4678\colsr160\ql \li545\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li545\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li545\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li545\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li545\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li545\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li909\sb40\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Euro area\par\pard\qj
\li545\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0\fi25\tx579\tx596 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
economy much \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 less open than \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 individual euro \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
area countries\par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li508\ri0\sb120\sl-180\slmult0\fi74\tx579\tx559 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 Goods account \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 for
the largest \line \tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 share of extra-\line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 euro area trade\par\pard\column \ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb075\sl-
207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 2.4 EXTERNAL
TRADE\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb10\sl-
249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Although
the euro area can be \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 significantly affected
by developments \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 in the global economy, it is far
less \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 open than the economies of the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 individual euro area countries. This \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 tends to limit the impact of external \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 economic developments and, in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 particular, that of movements in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 external prices on domestic euro area \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 prices. However, the euro area is still \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 more open than either the United States \line \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 or Japan. Euro area exports and imports \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 of goods and services as a share of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 GDP were significantly higher in 2002 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 than the corresponding figures for the \line \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 United States and Japan (see Table 2.1).\par\pard\qj
\li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 As to the composition of trade, goods \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 account for around three-quarters of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 both euro area imports and euro area \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 exports. Within the goods category, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 machinery and transport equipment \line \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 made up almost half of exports in 2002.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
24\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb104\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 They also constituted the largest
share\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 of
euro area goods imports (see Table \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 2.3). The
second largest component was \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 that of other
manufactured articles,\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex115 both imports and exports. In \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
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\expndtw0\charscalex106 10.0% of\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-250\slmult0
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\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 exports. This shows
that, in net terms, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 the euro area tends to
import raw \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 materials and intermediate goods and
to\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 export
processed goods. This in turn \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 reflects the
international division of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 labour and the
availability of raw\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 materials in the euro area.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb64\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex124 Turning to the geographical\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Geographical\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb4\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 distribution of\par\pard\ql
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distribution of euro area trade, the\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 euro area
trade\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 United Kingdom and the United States\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 are the two largest
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average \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 trading flows over the period 1996-
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg26}
{\bkmkend Pg26}\par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb166\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Table
2.3\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 External trade in goods of the euro area in
2002 \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb80\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf33\f34\fs14 (share of total as a percentage)
\par\pard\li1702\sb37\sl-184\slmult0\fi4247\tx7480 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf34\f35\fs15 Exports\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
Imports\par\pard\li1702\sb38\sl-218\slmult0\fi56\tx6218\tx7749 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Total\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 100\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
100\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi56 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf39\f40\fs19 of which:\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi198\tx6162\tx7693 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Machinery and transport equipment\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 45.8\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
36.5\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi198\tx6162\tx7693 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Chemicals\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 14.8\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 10.0\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi198\tx6266\tx7797 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Raw materials\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 1.8\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
4.5\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi198\tx6266\tx7693 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Energy\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 2.1\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 13.7\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi198\tx6266\tx7796 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Food, drink and
tobacco\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 6.0\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
6.0\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi198\tx6162\tx7693 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Other manufactured articles\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 26.4\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
26.0\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi198\tx6266\tx7797 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Other\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 3.1\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 3.3\par\pard\li1702\sb117\sl-161\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Sources: Eurostat and ECB
calculations.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4943\colsr160\colno2\col
w4677\colsr160\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb4\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 2002, the sum of their weights is\par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx2972 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 above 30% (see
Chart 2.4). They were \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 followed by Switzerland, Japan
and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 Sweden, with trade weights of 5.9%, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 4.9% and \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 3.9%
respectively.\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri71\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 Considering regional aggregates, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 bloc constituted by the EU acceding \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 countries accounted for 8.5% of euro \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 area trade, while the corresponding\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb4\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 figure for the bloc
comprising China\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 and the rest of Asia (excluding Japan) \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 was slightly above 13%.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb79\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 2.5 FINANCIAL STRUCTURE\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb66\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The financial system performs
the\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Indirect
and\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 essential economic function of\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 direct finance\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 channelling funds from those who are
\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \ql \li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb43\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Chart
2.4\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Trade
weights\ul0\super\cf40\f41\fs15\ul0\super\cf40\f41\fs14
1)\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 of the euro area\u8217?s 20 main trading partners
\par\pard\li1801\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1801\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1801\sb70\sl-
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 1 United Kingdom\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 5
Sweden\tab \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 9 Denmark\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 13 Turkey\tab \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 17
Canada\par\pard\li1801\sb1\sl-135\slmult0\fi299\tx3466\tx4363\tx5686\tx6820 \dn2
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 2 United States\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 6
China\tab \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 10 Czech Republic\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 14 Brazil\tab \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 18 Hong Kong
SAR\ul0\super\cf19\f20\fs14 2)\par\pard\li1801\sb1\sl-
140\slmult0\fi299\tx3466\tx4363\tx5686\tx6820 \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 3 Switzerland\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 7
Russia\tab \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 11 Norway\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 15 Taiwan\tab \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 19
Singapore\par\pard\li1801\sb0\sl-140\slmult0\fi299\tx3466\tx4363\tx5686\tx6820 \dn2
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 4 Japan\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 8
Poland\tab \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 12 Hungary\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 16 South Korea\tab \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 20
Israel\par\pard\li1801\sb101\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7869 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 20.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
20.0\par\pard\li1801\sb144\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7869 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
18.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 18.0\par\pard\li1801\sb144\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7869 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 16.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 16.0\par\pard\li1801\sb145\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7869 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 14.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
14.0\par\pard\li1801\sb144\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7869 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
12.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 12.0\par\pard\li1801\sb144\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7869 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 10.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 10.0\par\pard\li1801\sb143\sl-161\slmult0\fi63\tx7867 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 8.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
8.0\par\pard\li1801\sb144\sl-161\slmult0\fi63\tx7867 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
6.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 6.0\par\pard\li1801\sb145\sl-
161\slmult0\fi63\tx7867 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 4.0\par\pard\li1801\sb144\sl-161\slmult0\fi63\tx7867 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 2.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2.0\par\pard\li1801\sb144\sl-
161\slmult0\fi63\tx7867 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 0.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 0.0\par\pard\li1801\sb0\sl-
126\slmult0\fi415\tx2501\tx2785\tx3069\tx3354\tx3638\tx3922\tx4207\tx4491\tx4741\tx
5026\tx5310\tx5594\tx5878\tx6163\tx6447\tx6731\tx7015\tx7300\tx7584 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 1\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 3\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 5\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 6\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 7\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 8\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 9\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 10\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 11\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 12\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 13\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 14\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 15\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 16\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 17\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 18\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 19\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 20\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb22\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
Source: ECB calculations based on Eurostat trade data. \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1592\sb4\sl-180\slmult0\tx1872 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 1) Trade
weights are the sum of exports and imports expressed as a percentage of total euro
area exports and \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 imports and are average
figures for the period 1996-2002. \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb16\sl-161\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 2) Special administrative region.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 25
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00a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2803cff00e1a7fc8b9a97fd940f8b3ffab53c655e814514005145
1400514514005145140051451400514514005145140057c7bf0f7fe4faff006a7ffb36dfd8c3ff0053d
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00a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a
28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2803ffd9}}}}}\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart
Pg27}{\bkmkend Pg27}\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1757\sb146\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Chart 2.5\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Functions of
financial systems \par\pard\ql \li4332\sb0\sl-149\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li4332\sb0\sl-149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li4332\sb101\sl-149\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf43\f44\fs13 DIRECT
FINANCE\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw3359\colsr160\colno2\colw2172\
colsr60\colno3\colw4039\colsr160\ql \li2040\sb0\sl-149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li2040\sb68\sl-149\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf41\f42\fs13 Lenders/net savers\par\pard\ql \li2040\sb2\sl-
160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf42\f43\fs13 \u8226?
Households\par\pard\ql \li2040\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\u8226? Firms\par\pard\ql \li2040\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \u8226? Government\par\pard\ql \li2040\sb0\sl-
160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \u8226? Non-residents\par\pard\column
\ql \li3519\sb0\sl-149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li752\sb68\sl-149\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf41\f42\fs13 Financial markets\par\pard\ql
\li752\sb2\sl-160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf42\f43\fs13 \u8226? Money market\par\pard\ql \li752\sb0\sl-
160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \u8226? Capital market\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb120\sl-149\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf43\f44\fs13 Funds\par\pard\ql \li5092\sb0\sl-149\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li5092\sb0\sl-149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5092\sb0\sl-149\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1593\sb65\sl-149\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
Funds\par\pard\ql \li4251\sb0\sl-149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li4251\sb0\sl-
149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li4251\sb0\sl-149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li752\sb27\sl-
149\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf41\f42\fs13 Financial
intermediaries\par\pard\ql \li752\sb2\sl-160\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf42\f43\fs13 \u8226? Credit
institutions\par\pard\ql \li752\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\u8226? Other monetary\par\pard\ql \li841\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 financial institutions\par\pard\ql \li752\sb0\sl-
160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \u8226? Other\par\pard\ql \li4248\sb0\sl-
149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li749\sb92\sl-149\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf43\f44\fs13 INDIRECT FINANCE\par\pard\column \ql \li5741\sb0\sl-
149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li798\sb68\sl-149\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf41\f42\fs13 Borrowers/net spenders\par\pard\ql
\li798\sb2\sl-160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf42\f43\fs13 \u8226? Firms\par\pard\ql \li798\sb0\sl-
160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \u8226? Government\par\pard\ql
\li798\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \u8226?
Households\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-117\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf43\f44\fs13 Funds\par\pard\ql \li798\sb0\sl-126\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf42\f43\fs13 \u8226? Non-
residents\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4942\colsr160\colno2\colw467
8\colsr160\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb182\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 net savers
(i.e. who spend less than\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 their income) to those who are net \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 spenders (i.e. who wish to spend more \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 than their income). In other words, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 financial system allows net savers to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 lend funds to net spenders. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 functions of financial systems are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 shown schematically in Chart 2.5. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 most important lenders are normally \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 households, but firms, the government \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 and foreigners sometimes also find \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 themselves with excess funds and so \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 lend them out. Conversely, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 principal borrowers are typically \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 firms and the government, but \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 households and non-residents also \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 sometimes borrow to finance their \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 purchases.\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri72\sb190\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Funds flow from lenders to borrowers \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 via two routes. In direct or market-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 based finance (the route at the top of \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Chart \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 2.5), debtors borrow
funds\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri72\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
directly from lenders in financial \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 markets
by selling them financial \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 instruments, also
called securities \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 (such as debt securities and
shares), \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 which are claims on the borrower\u8217?
s \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 future income or assets. If financial \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 intermediaries play an additional role
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
26\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb182\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 in the
channelling of funds, one refers\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 to indirect or bank-based finance (see \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 the bottom of Chart 2.5). Financial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 intermediaries can be classified into \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 credit institutions, other monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 financial institutions \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 (MFIs)
and\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 other
financial intermediaries.\par\pard\qj \li5102\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb8\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 In the functioning of
the financial \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex124 system, financial markets
and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 financial intermediaries are not \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 separate entities but are strongly \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 interlinked. For example, funds can \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 flow in both directions between direct \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 and indirect finance (see the middle of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 Chart 2.5). Funds flow from markets \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 to banks when financial intermediaries \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 issue debt and equity securities to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 raise funds in order to finance their \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 activities. Conversely, funds flow \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 from banks to markets when, for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 instance, financial intermediaries \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex127 purchase securities issued by \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 governments and firms either as own \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 investments or as part of a money \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 market fund. Another example of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 interrelationship between financial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 markets and financial intermediaries \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex128 is the fact that non-financial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 corporations that issue securities
\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg28}
{\bkmkend Pg28}\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-252\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-
252\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri4946\sb188\sl-252\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 often depend on bridge
financing -\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 temporary loans to bridge the
period \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 before the funds obtained through
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 securities issuance become available -\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 and take advice from financial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 intermediaries. \par\pard\li475\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0\par\pard\li475\sb100\sl-218\slmult0\fi151\tx1702 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Main financial\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Before describing in more
detail the\par\pard\li475\sb0\sl-172\slmult0\fi380\tx1702 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 assets and\tab \dn3
\expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 financial markets where
direct finance\par\pard\li475\sb0\sl-135\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 liabilities of
the\par\pard\li475\sb0\sl-171\slmult0\fi214\tx1702 \dn2 \expndtw0\charscalex100
non-financial\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 takes
place and the financial\par\pard\li475\sb26\sl-218\slmult0\fi597\tx1702 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 sectors\tab \dn3
\expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 intermediaries that are
involved in\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri4946\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 indirect finance, Table 2.4 provides an \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 overview of the main financial assets \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 and liabilities of the non-financial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 sectors in the euro area in terms of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 amounts outstanding as at end-2002. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 The outstanding financial assets and \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 liabilities constitute the \u8220?stocks\u8221? in the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 quarterly framework of financial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 accounts. \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-246\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1702\ri2548\sb3\sl-246\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 The main
financial assets shown in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Table 2.4 amounted
to \ul0\nosupersub\cf44\f45\fs19 \u8364?\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 14,689
billion \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 (around 208% of annual GDP in the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 euro area) at the end of \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 2002. \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri4946\sb13\sl-248\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 Securities and shares accounted for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 nearly two-fifths of this figure, as did \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 currency and deposits. Insurance \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 technical reserves, i.e. the provisions \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 of pension funds, insurance and non-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 financial corporations to cover the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 claims of policy holders, accounted for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 the remaining one-fifth. \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri4944\sb250\sl-251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 The main
liabilities shown in Table 2.4 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 amounted to
\ul0\nosupersub\cf44\f45\fs19 \u8364?\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 15,557 billion
(220% \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 of GDP) at end-2002. Securities, \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 including quoted shares, comprised \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 around 45% of the financing sources \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 of the non-financial sectors, while \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 loans accounted for more than half. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 Most of the funding (almost 86% of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 the liabilities) was at maturities \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 exceeding one year.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 27
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg29}
{\bkmkend Pg29}\par\pard\qj \li1757\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1757\sb0\sl-
260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1757\sb0\sl-260\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1757\ri2127\sb46\sl-260\slmult0\tx2590 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Table 2.4\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Financial
investment and financing of non-financial sectors \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 in the euro area at end-
2002\ul0\super\cf40\f41\fs15\ul0\super\cf40\f41\fs14 1) \par\pard\ql
\li1757\sb93\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf33\f34\fs14 (outstanding amounts) \par\pard\li1757\sb24\sl-
184\slmult0\fi0\tx5586\tx7960 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf34\f35\fs15 Selected financial assets\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 EUR billions\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
%\par\pard\li1757\sb38\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx5954\tx7616 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Total\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 14,689\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
100.0\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx6057\tx7720 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Currency and deposits\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
5,633\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 38.3\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi141\tx6217\tx7824 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Currency\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 341\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
2.3\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi141\tx6058\tx7720 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Deposits\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 5,292\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 36.0\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi245\tx6058\tx7720 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 with euro area
MFIs\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 5,101\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
34.7\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi245\tx6217\tx7824 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 with non-MFIs\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 191\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 1.3\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx6058\tx7720 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Securities other than
shares\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 2,071\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
14.1\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi141\tx6217\tx7824 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Short-term\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 255\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 1.7\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi141\tx6058\tx7720
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Long-term\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
1,816\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 12.4\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx6057\tx7720 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
Shares\ul0\super\cf36\f37\fs15\ul0\super\cf36\f37\fs14 2)\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 3,479\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 23.7\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi141\tx6057\tx7720 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Quoted shares\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 1,777\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
12.1\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi141\tx6057\tx7720 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Mutual fund shares\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
1,702\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 11.6\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi245\tx6217\tx7824 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 o/w money market fund
shares\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 308\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
2.1\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx6058\tx7720 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Insurance technical reserves\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 3,506\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 23.9\par\pard\ql
\li1899\ri2678\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Net equity of
households in life \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 insurance and pension fund
\par\pard\li1899\sb13\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx6058\tx7720 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
reserves\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 3,168\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
21.6\par\pard\ql \li1899\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
Prepayments of insurance premiums \par\pard\li1899\sb37\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx6217\tx7824 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 and reserves for
outstanding claims\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 338\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 2.3\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb121\sl-161\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Source: ECB.
\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1588\sb4\sl-180\slmult0\tx1870 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
1) Non-financial sectors comprise general government, non-financial corporations
and households including non-\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 profit
institutions serving households. \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb16\sl-161\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 2) Excluding unquoted shares. \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb19\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 3) Including non-profit institutions
serving households. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 28
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg30}
{\bkmkend Pg30}\par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb206\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Table
2.4\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 (\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 cont\u8217?
d\ul0\nosupersub\cf9\f10\fs19 ) \par\pard\li1758\sb0\sl-
184\slmult0\par\pard\li1758\sb0\sl-184\slmult0\par\pard\li1758\sb0\sl-
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\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf34\f35\fs15 Selected liabilities\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 EUR billions\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
%\par\pard\li1758\sb38\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx5955\tx7618 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Total\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 15,557\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
100.0\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx6059\tx7721 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Loans\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 8,066\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 51.8\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 a) taken from\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-
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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 7,131\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
45.8\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi255\tx6219\tx7825 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 other financial intermediaries\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 935\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
6.0\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 b) granted
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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 21.2\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-
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shares\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 4,656\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
29.9\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi255\tx6059\tx7721 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 General government\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
4,125\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 26.5\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-
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3.4\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi396\tx6218\tx7825 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 short-term\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 140\tab \up0
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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 long-term\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 391\tab
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\expndtw0\charscalex105 of non-financial corporations\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 251\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
1.6\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 29
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg31}
{\bkmkend
Pg31}\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4942\colsr160\colno2\colw4678\co
lsr160\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-207\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb93\sl-207\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-8\charscalex97 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 2.6 FINANCIAL
MARKETS\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri72\sb8\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 This
section introduces the main \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 features of the
money, debt and equity \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 markets in the euro area.
Box \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 2.2\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri72\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 provides an overview of some key \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 terms relating to financial markets.\par\pard\column \ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 The money market\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The money market plays a crucial part\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Integration
of\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 in the transmission of monetary\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 the money\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 market\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
policy decisions, since changes in\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 monetary policy instruments affect the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 money market first (see Chapter 4). A \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 deep and integrated money market is a
\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \ql \li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1757\sb116\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Box 2.2\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Financial
markets: key terms \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb155\sl-251\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Financial markets can be
classified according to several criteria, illustrating different \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 essential features of these markets. One possible
classification is whether the financial \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
transaction relates to the first purchase of the issue or is a trade between
holders of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 securities \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 (primary or secondary markets). In turn, the secondary
market can be \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 organised in two ways. One is to
organise exchanges, where buyers and sellers of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
securities meet in one central location to conduct trades (exchange-traded
markets). \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 The other method of organising a
secondary market is to have an over-the-counter \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
(OTC) market, in which dealers at different locations who have an inventory of
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 securities stand ready to buy and sell
securities over the counter to anyone who is \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
willing to accept their prices. \par\pard\qj \li1757\sb0\sl-248\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1757\ri1618\sb4\sl-248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Another
classification relates to the original maturity of the financial contract.
Generally \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 a distinction is made between original
maturities of less than one year and those of one \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 year or more (money or capital markets). The money market
differs somewhat from \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 other financial markets in
that it is typically a wholesale interbank market where \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 transactions are large. Moreover, the Eurosystem, through
its monetary policy \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 operations, can influence
conditions on the money market (see Chapter 4). The ECB \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 is the monopoly supplier of central bank money and, by
virtue of this monopoly, the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 ECB can set the
refinancing conditions for credit institutions in the euro area. This, \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 in turn, influences the conditions at which credit
institutions and other money market \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 participants
transact in the euro area money market. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb248\sl-
253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 A final, commonly used classification is
between the form of the financial instrument \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 (equity
or debt market). The main distinction between equity and debt is that equity
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 does not have to be repaid, whereas debt is a
financial claim which usually does have \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 to be repaid
(in specific amounts at a certain interest rate). \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1619\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 An important
category of financial instruments are derivatives, i.e. financial contracts
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 whose value derives from underlying securities
prices, interest rates, foreign exchange \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 rates,
market indices or commodity prices. The basic classes of derivatives are
futures, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 options, swaps and forward rate
agreements. For example, the holder of a call (put) \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 option has the right, but not the obligation, to buy (sell)
a financial instrument (e.g. a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 bond or share) at
a given price at a specified time in the future. Many other derivatives \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 contracts have been developed by combining the basic
categories. Derivatives markets \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 assist the
functioning of the financial markets, because they improve the pricing and \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 allocation of financial risks.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 30
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\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
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\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
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2\charscalex100 market\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 precondition for an efficient monetary\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri69\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 policy since it
ensures an even \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 distribution of central bank
liquidity \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 and a homogeneous level of short-
term \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 interest rates across the single
currency \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 area. In the euro area, this
precondition \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 was met practically immediately
from \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 the start of Stage Three of EMU when
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 the national money markets were \line
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 successfully integrated into an efficient \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 euro area money market.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri70\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 The rapid integration
of the euro area \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 money market has also been
supported \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 by developments in the payment
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 systems infrastructure, above all the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 establishment of the TARGET (Trans-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 European Automated Real-time Gross \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 settlement Express Transfer) system, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 which allows the smooth functioning \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 of the settlement of cross-border \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 payments. The TARGET system \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 interconnects the euro real-time \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 gross settlement systems operated \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 by the EU NCBs and the ECB \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 payment mechanism. The direction, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 management and control of TARGET \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 fall within the competence of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Governing Council of the ECB.\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
There are various so-called \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8220?
cash\u8221?\par\pard\qj \li20\ri69\sb7\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
segments in the euro area money \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 market. The
most important of these \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 segments is the
unsecured market. The \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 unsecured market is mainly
devoted to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 the management of the liquidity needs
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 of banks and, hence, the unsecured \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 transactions are strongly concentrated \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 on the overnight maturity. There are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 two important reference rates for the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 unsecured money market, the EONIA \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 (euro overnight index average) and the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 EURIBOR (euro interbank offered \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 rate), which together provide uniform \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex101 money market are the repo market and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 the market for swaps against foreign \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 currencies. These markets are known \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 as secured markets, since lending is \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex126 done against assets acting as \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex113 market varies across the euro area. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 Repo transactions and swaps against \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex125 foreign currencies are mainly \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 concentrated on maturities of up to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 one month.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb250\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 In addition to the cash segments \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex123 money market also includes \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 derivatives segments. Interest rate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 swap markets and futures markets are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 the most important derivative markets. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 The most active instruments in these \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 markets are the EONIA swaps and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 EURIBOR futures.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb190\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 Looking at the development of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 different segments of the euro area \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 money market, the unsecured market \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 was characterised from the outset by a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 high degree of activity and liquidity. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 In contrast, the repo market developed \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 relatively slowly in 1999 and 2000, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 but then experienced very rapid \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 growth and had surpassed the turnover \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 in the unsecured market by \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
2002.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb1\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
Unsecured transactions accounted for \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 37% of the
total cash market turnover \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 in the euro area in
2002, with the repo \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 market accounting for around
46%. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 The integration of the repo market \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 has increased in recent years and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 indicators have pointed towards a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 heightened level of cross-border \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 activity as counterparties have \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 increased their use of collateral from \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 other euro area countries. However, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 despite considerable progress, several \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 technical factors, such as differences \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 in laws, documentation, settlement
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
31\par\pard\column \ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Secured parts of\par\pard\ql \li20\sb8\sl-172\slmult0
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market\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
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172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 markets\par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
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180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri313\sb162\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 Development of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the
money\par\pard\ql \li20\ri271\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
market from \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 January 1999 to \line \up0
\expndtw-4\charscalex100 June 2003
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Table 2.5\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Amounts
outstanding of euro-denominated short-term debt \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 securities issued by euro area residents \par\pard\ql
\li1757\sb93\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf33\f34\fs14 (end of year; EUR billions; (% of GDP))
\par\pard\li1700\sb72\sl-184\slmult0\fi1923\tx4446\tx5268\tx6090\tx6912\tx7734 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf34\f35\fs15 1990\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 1995\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 1998\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 2000\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 2001\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 2002\par\pard\li1700\sb38\sl-
218\slmult0\fi56\tx3666\tx4488\tx5310\tx6132\tx6954\tx7776 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Total\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 475\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 607\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 533\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 578\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 612\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
696\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1766\tx4288\tx5214\tx6036\tx6858\tx7680 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
(11.6)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (11.4)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
(9.1)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (9.0)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
(8.9)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (9.9)\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi56\tx3666\tx4488\tx5310\tx6132\tx6954\tx7776 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 MFIs\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 104\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 168\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 165\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 243\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 241\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 281\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-
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(2.6)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (3.2)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
(2.8)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (3.8)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
(3.5)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (4.0)\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi56\tx3873\tx4592\tx5517\tx6339\tx7161\tx7983 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Non-monetary\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 4\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 10\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 9\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 5\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 3\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 4\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi56\tx3570\tx4392\tx5214\tx6036\tx6858\tx7680 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 financial\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (0.1)\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (0.2)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (0.2)\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (0.1)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (0.0)\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (0.1)\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi56 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 corporations\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi56\tx3770\tx4592\tx5414\tx6236\tx7058\tx7880 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Non-financial\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 44\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 34\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 46\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 86\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 96\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 85\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi56\tx3570\tx4392\tx5214\tx6036\tx6858\tx7680 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 corporations\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (1.1)\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (0.6)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (0.8)\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (1.3)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (1.4)\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (1.2)\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi56\tx3666\tx4488\tx5310\tx6132\tx6954\tx7776 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Public sector\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 322\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 396\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 313\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 244\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 272\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 325\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1869\tx4392\tx5214\tx6036\tx6858\tx7680 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
(7.9)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (7.5)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
(5.3)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (3.8)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
(4.0)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (4.6)\par\pard\li1700\sb159\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Source:
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sr160\colno3\colw4678\colsr160\ql \li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
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\li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li465\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li604\sb157\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Lower relative\par\pard\ql \li612\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 importance of\par\pard\ql \li1191\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 euro-\par\pard\ql \li691\sb8\sl-
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\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 standards and the diversity
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practices across the euro area, have so \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 far
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\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 securities. The amount outstanding of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 euro-denominated short-term debt \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 securities issued by euro area residents \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 totalled almost 10% of GDP at the end \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 of 2002, which was slightly lower than \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 the 1990 figure (see Table 2.5). The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 relative importance of the types of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 issuer did, however, change over the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 intervening 12 years. In 1990 the most \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 important issuer was the public sector \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 (almost 70% of the total market), while \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 in \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 2002 the amount outstanding
of\par\pard\qj \li20\ri70\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 euro-
denominated short-term debt \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 securities issued by the
private sector, \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 notably MFIs, was slightly larger than
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 that issued by the public sector (53% \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 compared with 47%).
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?when\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb1\sl-172\slmult0
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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 denominated long-term
debt securities\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 long-term debt\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
139\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
issued by euro area residents. The\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 securities\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 amount
outstanding of these debt \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 instruments equalled
around 96% of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 GDP at the end of \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 2002, having\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 increased from around 57% of GDP at
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 the end of 1990 (see Table 2.6). The \line
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\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 other general
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issuer in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
terms of volume. At the end of 2002\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 the amount outstanding of euro-\line \up0
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\expndtw-1\charscalex100 euro area is\par\pard\qj \li501\ri0\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0\fi13 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 small compared \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 with the United\par\pard\ql \li1144\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 States\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb75\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 sector has tended to be concentrated
in\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 a few
countries whose tax systems \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 offer corporations a
cheaper source of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 funding via \u8220?special-purpose
vehicles\u8221? \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 (SPVs) and other financing agencies
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 helping them to raise capital on the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 corporate bond market.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-
249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri69\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
Financing through the issuance of debt \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
securities is smaller in the euro area \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 than in
the United States and Japan. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 The amounts
outstanding at the end of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 2002 were 105% of GDP
in the euro \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 area, compared with 154% and 160%
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 of GDP in the United States and Japan \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 respectively (see Table 2.7). The high \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 figure for Japan can be explained \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 primarily by the strong growth in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 government debt securities that has \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 been observed in the context of a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 prolonged period of weak economic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 growth since the early 1990s. Looking \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 at the non-financial corporate sector, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 the amount outstanding of debt \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 securities issued by non-financial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 corporations in the euro area was \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 around 7% of GDP at the end of 2002, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 while it totalled around 23% and 18% \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 of GDP in the United States and Japan \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 respectively.\par\pard\column \ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb75\sl-218\slmult0\tx3319 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 Despite the significant growth in the\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Some segments\par\pard\ql
\li3314\sb1\sl-169\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 in euro
area\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 euro area debt securities market, some\par\pard\ql
\li3314\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 debt securities\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
142\slmult0\tx3319 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
market segments, such as those for\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 market little\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
171\slmult0\tx3319 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 debt
with a low credit rating or\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 developed\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb4\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 unrated debt, have
remained relatively \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 underdeveloped. Compared
with the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 United States, relatively few euro
area\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
corporations had credit ratings in \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 2002, and this
restricted their access to \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the corporate bond
market.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Equity
market\par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0\tx3314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Turning to the equity market, a\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Euro area
stock\par\pard\ql \li3309\sb1\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 market\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 commonly used indicator of
its\par\pard\ql \li3309\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 capitalisation\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
139\slmult0\tx3314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
importance is the market capitalisation\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 growing...\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of stocks
traded in terms of GDP. The \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 euro area stock
market capitalisation \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 increased from 21% of GDP
at the end\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
of 1990 to 47% of GDP at the end of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 2002 (see
Table 2.8). As can be seen \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 from Table 2.8,
however, the stock\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 market capitalisation was as high as \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 87% of GDP at end-2000. These \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 strong movements in stock market\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 capitalisation were
caused by a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 period of strong increases in
stock \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 prices up to early 2000 which was
then\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-171\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 followed by
a significant fall. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 33
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg35}
{\bkmkend Pg35}\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1757\ri1610\sb84\sl-250\slmult0\tx2579\tx2579 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Table
2.7\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Amounts outstanding of debt securities
denominated in national \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 currency issued by
residents in the euro area, the United States \line \tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 and Japan at end-2002 \par\pard\ql \li1757\sb95\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf33\f34\fs14 (as a percentage of GDP)
\par\pard\li1700\sb84\sl-184\slmult0\fi2602\tx5137\tx6271\tx7405 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf34\f35\fs15 Total\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Issued by\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Issued by\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Issued by\par\pard\li1700\sb1\sl-
162\slmult0\fi3480\tx7538 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 financial non-financial\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 general\par\pard\li1700\sb1\sl-
166\slmult0\fi3187\tx7241 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 corporations
corporations\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 government\par\pard\li1700\sb42\sl-
218\slmult0\fi56\tx4215\tx5453\tx6690\tx7720 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Euro area\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
105.4\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 44.7\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
6.6\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 54.1\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi56\tx4215\tx5453\tx6586\tx7720 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 United
States\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 153.7\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
88.1\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 22.8\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
42.8\par\pard\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi56\tx4215\tx5452\tx6586\tx7617 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Japan\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 160.1\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 27.5\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 17.9\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 114.8\par\pard\li1700\sb140\sl-161\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Sources: ECB and
BIS.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols4\colno1\colw1590\colsr110\colno2\colw3252\col
sr160\colno3\colw3188\colsr110\colno4\colw1390\colsr160\ql \li647\sb0\sl-
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172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 ...but
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the\par\pard\ql \li654\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 United
States\par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li462\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li462\ri0\sb152\sl-
180\slmult0\tx678 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Growing number \line\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 of companies\par\pard\ql \li613\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 listed on euro\par\pard\ql \li856\sb8\sl-172\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 area stock\par\pard\ql \li1011\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 markets\par\pard\column \ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb42\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Total stock market
capitalisation in the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 euro area remained significantly \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 smaller than in the United States, and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 the gap between stock market \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 capitalisation in terms of GDP in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 United States and the euro area even \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 widened from around 30 percentage \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 points in 1990 to around 60 percentage \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 points in 2002. By contrast, in Japan \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 stock market capitalisation declined \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 from 90% of GDP in 1990 to 58% of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 GDP in \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 2002 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 (mostly reflecting\par\pard\qj \li20\ri73\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 significant falls in stock prices over
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 this period).\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 Another indication of the growing \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 importance of the equity market in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 euro area is provided by statistics on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 the number of listed companies. This \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 number rose from 4,276 at the end of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 1990 to \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 6,271 at the end of
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 2002\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 (see Table \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 2.9). As a
comparison,\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115
the number of listed companies in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 the United
States and Japan at\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb42\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 the end of 2002 was 6,586 and 2,153\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 respectively.\par\pard\qj
\li5102\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 Since the introduction of the euro \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 there have been many initiatives to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 form alliances or merge the activities \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 of stock exchanges of individual \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 euro area countries. Stock market \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 participants also increasingly seem to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 be taking into account the economic \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 2002\par\pard\li1757\sb38\sl-
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 72\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 104\par\pard\li1757\sb32\sl-
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 73\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 54\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 67\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 56\tab \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex104 4,276\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 5,106\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 4,546\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 5,516\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 6,357\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
6,271\par\pard\li510\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1248\tx3338\tx4188\tx5038\tx5889\tx6739\tx7618 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 United States\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 6,765\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 8,160\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 8,449\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 7,851\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 7,069\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 6,586\par\pard\li510\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1248\tx3338\tx4188\tx5038\tx5889\tx6739\tx7618 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Japan\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 1,752\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 1,791\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 1,890\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 2,096\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 2,141\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 2,153\par\pard\li510\sb126\sl-161\slmult0\fi1192 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Source: World Federation of
Exchanges.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols4\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw32
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb13\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Number of
MFIs\par\pard\qj \li565\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0\tx790 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
declined owing \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 to financial\par\pard\ql
\li663\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
consolidation\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb106\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Credit institutions are defined in two\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx1374\tx2583 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 Banking
Coordination Directives\ul0\super\cf25\f26\fs20 6 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and are subject to common EU-
wide \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 supervisory \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 standards. \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
Credit\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
institutions are the counterparties for \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex126 central
bank monetary policy \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 operations (see Chapter
4). Owing to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 the fact that they grant
credit to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 households and firms, inter alia on
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 basis of credit received from the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 central bank, they are crucial to the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 transmission of monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 impulses to the economy \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
(see\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Chapter
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 3). The term \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \u8220?
monetary\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
financial institution\u8221? was created \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
because an increasing number of non-\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 credit
institutions, notably money \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex122 market
funds\ul0\super\cf25\f26\fs20 7\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , are performing
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 activities and offering products that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 were traditionally the preserve of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 banks.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri69\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Credit institutions accounted for 81% \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 of all euro area MFIs at the end of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 2002 (see Table 2.10). Money market \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 funds were the second largest MFI \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 category. At the end of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 2002
there\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 were
8,544 MFIs in the euro area. This \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 figure
reflects the large number of\par\pard\column \ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb106\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 savings and
cooperative banks - often\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 operating only at a local level - and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 specialised credit institutions in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 several countries. The number of MFIs \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 declined markedly between \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
1998\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0\tx476 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
and\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 2002, reflecting the ongoing\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx1951 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 consolidation
process in the European \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 banking industry. The
trend towards \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 consolidation in the credit
institution \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 sector is a response to
changing \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 market conditions, driven by a
number \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 of factors, such as technological
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 developments, \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
deregulation,\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
liberalisation and globalisation. The \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 introduction of
the euro has probably \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 been fuelling these developments
by \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 creating more transparency across \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 national borders.\par\pard\qj \li5103\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 The ECB
and the NCBs collect \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 monthly and quarterly
statistics from \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the MFIs in the euro area and
compute \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 both an aggregated and a consolidated
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 MFI balance sheet at the euro area \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 level. The aggregated balance sheet of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 the MFI sector is the sum of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 harmonised balance sheets of all the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 MFIs resident in the euro area. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 aggregated balance sheet presents\par\pard\column \ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb121\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Aggregated and\par\pard\ql \li20\ri258\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 consolidated \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 balance sheet of \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
MFIs \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \qj \li1702\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1586\sb67\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 6\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 A \u8220?credit
institution\u8221? refers to any institution falling under the definition contained
in Article 1 (1) of Directive \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 2000/12/EC of the
European Parliament and of the Council of 20 March 2000 relating to the taking up
and pursuit \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 of the business of credit
institutions, as amended by Directive 2000/28/EC of the European Parliament and
of \par\pard\qj \li1789\ri1586\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the
Council of 18 September 2000, i.e. \u8220?an undertaking whose business is to
receive deposits or other repayable \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 funds from the
public and to grant credit for its own account\u8221?. See glossary.
\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1585\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 7\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Money market funds are
defined as collective investment undertakings of which the units are, in terms of
liquidity, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 close substitutes for deposits and
which primarily invest in money market instruments and/or in other transferable
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 debt instruments with a residual maturity of up
to and including one year, and/or in bank deposits, and/or which \par\pard\ql
\li1789\sb16\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 offer a rate of return
approaching the interest rates on money market instruments.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 35

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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 2001\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 8,320\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 7,464\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 7,218\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
6,906\par\pard\li493\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi1263\tx5037\tx5888\tx6738\tx7617 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Money market funds\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
1,516\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 1,604\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
1,631\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 1,620\par\pard\li493\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1263\tx5300\tx6150\tx7001\tx7880 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Central
banks and other institutions\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 20\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 20\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 19\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 18\par\pard\li493\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1263\tx5037\tx5888\tx6738\tx7617 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 All
MFIs\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 9,856\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
9,088\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 8,868\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
8,544\par\pard\li493\sb126\sl-161\slmult0\fi1207 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Source:
ECB.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1590\colsr110\colno2\colw3252\col
sr160\colno3\colw4678\colsr160\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li493\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li694\sb50\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Deposits and\par\pard\ql
\li493\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0\fi178\tx767 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 loans are
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 most important \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 MFI balance\par\pard\ql \li776\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 sheet items\par\pard\column \ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb106\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 information on inter-MFI positions on\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 a gross basis. It
includes cross-border \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 inter-MFI activities both
within the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 euro area and with regard to the rest
of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 the world. This information is useful
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 for assessing the integration of \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 financial systems and the importance \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex126 of the interbank market. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 consolidated balance sheet of the MFI \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 sector is obtained by netting positions \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 between MFIs in the euro area on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 the aggregated balance sheet. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 consolidated balance sheet provides \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 the basis for the regular analysis of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 monetary and credit developments in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 the euro area, including monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 aggregates (see Box 2.3).\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 Chart 2.7 shows the composition of \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 the consolidated balance sheet of the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 euro area MFIs \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 (including
the\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 Eurosystem)
at the end of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 2002.\par\pard\column \ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb106\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 Deposits accounted for 45% of total\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 liabilities, while
other important \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 liability items were external
liabilities \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 and debt securities, which amounted
to\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 19% and
13% respectively of total \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 MFI liabilities. Loans
represented the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 largest share of total assets
(56% at the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 end of 2002). External assets made up \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 20% of total MFI assets, whereas \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 lending in the form of debt securities,\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 shares and other
equity accounted \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 for 15%.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0\tx3315 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 Bank deposits in the euro area\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Bank deposits\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3315 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 amounted to 81% of GDP at end-2002\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 and loans in
the\par\pard\ql \li3310\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 euro area,
the\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-139\slmult0\tx3315 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (see Table 2.12). This was more than in\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 United States\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb17\sl-209\slmult0\tx3315 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 the United States (44% of GDP) and\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 and Japan\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb8\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 less than in Japan (119% of GDP). At \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 the same time, bank loans in the euro \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 area totalled 108% of GDP, while for\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the United States and
Japan this ratio \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 was \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 51%
and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 101% respectively.
\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \ql \li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb178\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Box
2.3\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Monetary aggregates \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1618\sb155\sl-251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 The starting-point for the definition of euro area
monetary aggregates is the consolidated \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 balance
sheet of the MFI sector. In general, the appropriate definition of a monetary \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 aggregate largely depends on the purpose for which the
aggregate is intended. Given \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 that many different
financial assets are substitutable, and that the nature and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 characteristics of financial assets, transactions and means
of payment are changing over \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 time, it is not
always clear how money should be defined and which financial assets \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 belong to which definition of money. For these reasons,
central banks usually define \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 and monitor several
monetary aggregates. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 The ECB\u8217?s definitions of euro area monetary
aggregates are based on a harmonised \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 definition
of the money-issuing sector and the money-holding sector as well as of \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 harmonised categories of MFI liabilities. The money-
issuing sector comprises MFIs \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 36
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Source: ECB. \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1643\sb4\sl-
180\slmult0\tx1928 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 1) Monetary liabilities of MFIs and
central government (post office, treasury) vis-�-vis non-MFI euro area \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 residents excluding central government.
\par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb204\sl-248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 resident in the euro area. The money-holding sector
includes all non-MFIs resident in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 the euro area
excluding the central government sector. Even though the central \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 government sector is not considered to be part of the
money-issuing sector, central \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 government
liabilities of a monetary nature (e.g. deposits held by households with the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 post office) are included as a special item in
the definition of monetary aggregates \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 because
they are highly liquid.\ul0\super\cf45\f46\fs18 1 \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1617\sb249\sl-252\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Based on conceptual considerations and empirical
studies, and in line with international \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 practice, the
Eurosystem has defined a narrow (M1), an \u8220?intermediate\u8221? (M2) and a
broad \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 monetary aggregate (M3). These aggregates differ
with regard to the degree of liquidity \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 (as assessed on
the basis of the criteria of transferability, convertibility, price certainty
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 and marketability) of the assets they include. Table
2.11 above sets out the definitions \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 of euro area
monetary aggregates. \par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-240\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1618\sb18\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 M1
comprises currency, i.e. banknotes and coins, and overnight deposits. These
deposits \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 can immediately be converted into currency
or used for cashless payments. \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb250\sl-253\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 M2 comprises M1 and, in addition, deposits with an
agreed maturity of up to and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 including two years
or redeemable at a period of notice of up to and including three \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 months. These deposits can be converted into components of
narrow money, but some \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 restrictions may apply,
such as the need for advance notification, penalties and fees. \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1618\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 M3 comprises M2
and certain marketable instruments issued by the resident MFI sector. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 These marketable instruments are repurchase
agreements, money market fund \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 shares/units
and debt securities with a maturity of up to and including two years \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 (including money market paper). A high degree of liquidity
and price certainty make \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 these instruments close
substitutes for deposits. As a result of their inclusion, broad \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 money is less affected by substitution between various
liquid asset categories and is \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 more stable than
narrower definitions of money (see also Chapter 3). \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1618\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Holdings by euro
area residents of liquid assets denominated in foreign currencies can \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 be close substitutes for euro-denominated assets.
Therefore, the monetary aggregates \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 include such assets
if they are held with MFIs located in the euro area. \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1643\sb128\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs15\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 1\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13
Deposits held by the central government with the MFI sector are excluded because
the central government is not \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 included in the
money-holding sector, given that its money holdings are not closely related to
spending plans. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 37
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9}}}}}\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg39}{\bkmkend Pg39}\par\pard\ql \li1814\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1814\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1814\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1814\sb206\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Chart
2.6\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Percentage shares of components of M3 at end-2002
\par\pard\ql \li4031\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li4031\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li4031\sb68\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Money market
fund\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw5124\colsr40\colno2\colw4616\cols
r160\ql \li4246\sb3\sl-140\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
shares/units\par\pard\ql \li4441\sb0\sl-140\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
8%\par\pard\ql \li3861\sb146\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
Repurchase\par\pard\ql \li3885\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
agreements\par\pard\ql \li4103\sb2\sl-139\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
4%\par\pard\ql \li2677\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li2677\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li2677\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li2677\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li2677\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li2677\sb96\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Deposits redeemable at a\par\pard\ql
\li2751\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 period of notice of
up\par\pard\ql \li2934\sb1\sl-140\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 to three
months\par\pard\ql \li3214\sb0\sl-140\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
25%\par\pard\ql \li3627\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li3627\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li3627\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li3709\sb135\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Deposits with an agreed\par\pard\ql
\li3627\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 maturity of up to two
years\par\pard\ql \li4220\sb1\sl-140\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
19%\par\pard\column \ql \li20\sb38\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
Debt securities with a maturity\par\pard\ql \li367\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 of up to two years\par\pard\ql \li765\sb1\sl-
140\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2%\par\pard\ql \li449\sb124\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Currency in circulation\par\pard\ql
\li986\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 6%\par\pard\ql
\li6332\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li6332\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li6332\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li6332\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li6332\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li6332\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1188\sb131\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 Overnight deposits\par\pard\ql \li1577\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 36% \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \ql \li1757\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb61\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
Source: ECB. \par\pard\qj \li1757\sb0\sl-251\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1757\ri1619\sb34\sl-251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 As the definition of monetary aggregates adopted by
the ECB only includes liabilities \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 of MFIs
located in the euro area vis-�-vis euro area residents, holdings by foreign
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 residents of i) short-term deposits with euro
area MFIs, ii) shares/units issued by money \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
market funds located in the euro area, and iii) debt securities issued with a
maturity \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 of up to and including two years by
MFIs located in the euro area are excluded. Currency \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 in circulation is entirely included in the monetary
aggregates, irrespective of whether \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 it is held
by euro area residents or non-residents, given the difficulty of deriving
accurate \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 and timely measures of the amounts of
banknotes and coins held by non-residents. \par\pard\qj \li1757\sb0\sl-
248\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1757\ri1619\sb4\sl-248\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 Chart 2.6 illustrates the relative shares of the components
of M3 in December 2002. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 Overnight deposits
accounted for the largest share, namely 36% of M3. The share in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 M3 of deposits redeemable at a period of notice of up to
and including three months \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 was 25%, while that
of deposits with an agreed maturity of up to and including two \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 years was 19%. Money market fund shares/units amounted to
8% of M3, and currency \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 in circulation was 6%.
Finally, repurchase agreements and debt securities issued with \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 an initial maturity of up to and including two years
accounted for 4% and 2% of M3 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
respectively.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4942\colsr160\colno2\col
w4678\colsr160\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb136\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 These
figures are an indication of the\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 importance of financial intermediation \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 through banks in the euro area, in \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 particular when compared with the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 United States.\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri72\sb190\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 In both the euro area and the United \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 States bank loans to non-financial
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
38\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb136\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 corporations
were around 40% of GDP\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 at the end of 2002. By contrast, bank \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 loans to non-financial corporations in \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 Japan amounted to 64% of GDP at \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 the end of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 2002. This reflects
the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
significance of capital markets in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 corporate
finance decisions in the euro \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 area and the
United States, whereas in \par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft0\shptop0\shpright9920\shpbottom13880\shpwr3\shpfblwtxt0\shpz-
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f0fd803fe8c6bf63cffc466f82bffcc4d7d87451ff00111bc42ffa2ef8cfff00128cefff009bbc97dc1
fd8391ffd09b29ffc3760ff00f94f92fb8f8f3fe1de1fb007fd18d7ec79ff0088cdf057ff00989a3fe1
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2fb83fb0723ff00a13653ff0086ec1fff0029f25f71f1e7fc3bc3f600ff00a31afd8f3ff119be0aff00
f31347fc3bc3f600ff00a31afd8f3ff119be0aff00f3135f61d147fc446f10bfe8bbe33ffc4a33bffe6
ef25f707f60e47ff426ca7ff0dd83ff00e53e4bee3e3cff0087787ec01ff4635fb1e7fe2337c15ffe62
68ff0087787ec01ff4635fb1e7fe2337c15ffe626bec3a28ff00888de217fd177c67ff00894677ff00c
dde4bee0fec1c8ffe84d94ffe1bb07ffca7c97dc7c79ff0ef0fd803fe8c6bf63cff00c466f82bff00cc
4d1ff0ef0fd803fe8c6bf63cff00c466f82bff00cc4d7d87451ff111bc42ff00a2ef8cff00f128ceff0
0f9bbc97dc1fd8391ff00d09b29ff00c3760fff0094f92fb8f8f3fe1de1fb007fd18d7ec79ff88cdf05
7ff989a3fe1de1fb007fd18d7ec79ff88cdf057ff989afb0e8a3fe2237885ff45df19ffe2519dfff003
7792fb83fb0723ffa13653ff86ec1ff00f29f25f71f1e7fc3bc3f600ffa31afd8f3ff00119be0afff00
31347fc3bc3f600ffa31afd8f3ff00119be0afff003135f61d147fc446f10bfe8bbe33ff00c4a33bff0
0e6ef25f707f60e47ff00426ca7ff000dd83ffe53e4bee3e3cff87787ec01ff004635fb1e7fe2337c15
ff00e6268ff87787ec01ff004635fb1e7fe2337c15ff00e626bec3a28ff888de217fd177c67ff894677
ffcdde4bee0fec1c8ff00e84d94ff00e1bb07ff00ca7c97dc7c79ff000ef0fd803fe8c6bf63cffc466f
82bffcc4d1ff000ef0fd803fe8c6bf63cffc466f82bffcc4d7d87451ff00111bc42ffa2ef8cfff00128
cefff009bbc97dc1fd8391ffd09b29ffc3760ff00f94f92fb8f8f3fe1de1fb007fd18d7ec79ff0088cd
f057ff00989a3fe1de1fb007fd18d7ec79ff0088cdf057ff00989afb0e8a3fe2237885ff0045df19ff0
0e2519dff00f37792fb83fb0723ff00a13653ff0086ec1fff0029f25f71f1e7fc3bc3f600ff00a31afd
8f3ff119be0aff00f31347fc3bc3f600ff00a31afd8f3ff119be0aff00f3135f61d147fc446f10bfe8b
be33ffc4a33bffe6ef25f707f60e47ff426ca7ff0dd83ff00e53e4bee3e3cff0087787ec01ff4635fb1
e7fe2337c15ffe6268ff0087787ec01ff4635fb1e7fe2337c15ffe626bec3a28ff00888de217fd177c6
7ff00894677ff00cdde4bee0fec1c8ffe84d94ffe1bb07ffca7c97dc7c79ff0ef0fd803fe8c6bf63cff
00c466f82bff00cc4d1ff0ef0fd803fe8c6bf63cff00c466f82bff00cc4d7d87451ff111bc42ff00a2e
f8cff00f128ceff00f9bbc97dc1fd8391ff00d09b29ff00c3760fff0094f92fb8f8f3fe1de1fb007fd1
8d7ec79ff88cdf057ff989a3fe1de1fb007fd18d7ec79ff88cdf057ff989afb0e8a3fe2237885ff45df
19ffe2519dfff0037792fb83fb0723ffa13653ff86ec1ff00f29f25f71f1e7fc3bc3f600ffa31afd8f3
ff00119be0afff0031347fc3bc3f600ffa31afd8f3ff00119be0afff003135f61d147fc446f10bfe8bb
e33ff00c4a33bff00e6ef25f707f60e47ff00426ca7ff000dd83ffe53e4bee3e3cff87787ec01ff0046
35fb1e7fe2337c15ff00e6268ff87787ec01ff004635fb1e7fe2337c15ff00e626bec3a28ff888de217
fd177c67ff894677ffcdde4bee0fec1c8ff00e84d94ff00e1bb07ff00ca7c97dc65683a0e87e16d0f46
f0c786346d2bc39e1bf0e695a7683e1ef0f683a759e91a1e85a1e91670e9fa4e8da3693a7c36f61a5e9
5a5d85bdbd8e9da758dbc16765670436d6d0c50c488bab4515f1f52a54ab52756ace756ad59caa54a95
2529d4a95272729ce7393729ce726e52949b94a4db6db67ab18c6318c631518c528c6314946314aca31
4ac92492492564b4414514540c28a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a00f1ff81dff
00225eb7ff006583f685ff00d5fdf132bd82bc7fe077fc897adffd960fda17ff0057f7c4caf60a0028a
28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a
0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a002
8a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a2
8a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0
028a28a0028a28a00f1ff0081dff225eb7ff6583f685ffd5fdf132bd82bc7fe077fc897adff00d960fd
a17ff57f7c4caf60a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a00
28a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a
28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a
0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a002
8a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a00f1ff81dff00225eb7ff006583f685ff00d5fdf132bd8
2bc7fe077fc897adffd960fda17ff0057f7c4caf60a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a
0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a002
8a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a2
8a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0
028af25f80ff15ad7e39fc1af869f182cb46b8f0edafc46f0868fe2c8742babc8f50b8d25755b659cd8
cb7d0c16b1ddb5bb168c5ca5b5b899407f2222c635f5aaeccc3018bcab1f8ecaf1f45e1f1f96e331380
c6e1dce9d47431783ad3c3e268b9d29d4a5374ab539c1ce9ce74e4e3784e5169bca857a589a14713426
aa51c452a75e8cd29253a5560aa539a524a494a124ed24a4af6693d028a28ae3350a28a2800a28a2800
a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2803c7fe077fc897adffd960fda17ff0057f7c4caf60af1ff0081df
f225eb7ff6583f685ffd5fdf132bd82800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a
28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a
2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a280
0a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2803e3cff827df
fc9937ecc3ff00647bc21ffa40b5f61d7c79ff0004fbff009326fd987fec8f7843ff004816bec3afb2f
117fe4e0f1dff00d965c4ff00fabbc71e4e41ff00222c97fec53977fea1d10a28a2be34f5828a28a002
8a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a0028a28a00f1ff81dff00225eb7ff006583f685ff00d5fdf132bd8
28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a
2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a280
0a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a2
8a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2800a28a2803e3cff827dffc9937ecc3ff00647bc21ffa40b
5f61d1457d9788bff0027078eff00ecb2e27ffd5de38f2720ff0091164bff00629cbbff0050e8851451
5f1a7ac1451450014514500145145001451450014514500145145007ffd9}}}}}\pard\sb0\sl-
240{\bkmkstart Pg40}{\bkmkend Pg40}\par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-240\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1758\sb0\sl-240\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\sb0\sl-240\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1595\sb122\sl-240\slmult0\tx2594 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Chart
2.7\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Composition of the consolidated balance sheet of
euro area MFIs \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 (including the Eurosystem)
at end-2002 \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb86\sl-161\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf26\f27\fs13 (percentage shares in the
balance sheet
total)\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4168\colsr160\colno2\colw5452\c
olsr160\ql \li3054\sb117\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf48\f49\fs17 Total assets\par\pard\ql \li2934\sb75\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13
Remaining\par\pard\ql \li3072\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
assets\par\pard\ql \li2334\sb16\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Fixed
assets \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 8%\par\pard\ql \li2572\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 1%\par\pard\ql \li1934\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1934\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1934\sb95\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 External\par\pard\ql \li2022\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 assets\par\pard\ql \li2057\sb1\sl-140\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 20%\par\pard\ql \li1771\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1771\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1802\sb75\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 Shares and\par\pard\ql \li1771\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 other equity\par\pard\ql \li1990\sb1\sl-140\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 4%\par\pard\ql \li2088\sb152\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100
Debt securities\par\pard\ql \li2369\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 11%\par\pard\column \ql \li1820\sb128\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf48\f49\fs17 Total liabilities\par\pard\ql
\li1558\sb96\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Remaining\par\pard\ql \li1602\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 liabilities\par\pard\ql \li1714\sb2\sl-139\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 11%\par\pard\ql \li20\sb88\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 Loans\par\pard\ql \li62\sb1\sl-135\slmult0\tx3470 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 56%\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 posits\par\pard\ql
\li3488\sb0\sl-126\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 5%\par\pard\ql
\li776\sb47\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 External\par\pard\ql
\li752\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 liabilities\par\pard\ql
\li865\sb1\sl-140\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 19%\par\pard\ql
\li5077\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5077\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5077\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li769\sb101\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 Capital and\par\pard\ql \li858\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 reserves\par\pard\ql \li972\sb1\sl-140\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 7%\par\pard\ql \li1242\sb94\sl-161\slmult0\tx3044 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 Debt securities\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
Currency\par\pard\ql \li1522\sb1\sl-135\slmult0\tx3204 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 13%\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2%
\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \ql \li6487\sb0\sl-126\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 Money market \par\pard\ql \li6730\sb0\sl-126\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 funds \par\pard\ql \li6774\sb0\sl-119\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 3% \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb137\sl-161\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Source:
ECB.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\col
sr160\colno3\colw4677\colsr160\qj \li530\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li530\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li530\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li530\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li530\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li530\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li530\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li530\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li530\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li530\ri0\sb135\sl-180\slmult0\tx776 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Still minor role \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 of non-MFIs\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb39\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Japan the
non-financial corporate\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 sector makes relatively greater use of \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 bank loans as a source of finance.\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Other financial
intermediaries\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Indirect finance to the
public and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 private sectors is not only provided
by \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 MFIs, but also by other financial
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 intermediaries such as insurance \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 corporations and pension funds, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 financial auxiliaries, mutual funds, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 securities and derivatives dealers, and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 financial corporations engaged in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 lending. One of the key differences \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 compared with credit institutions is \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 the lack of deposits on the liabilities\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb39\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 side of the balance sheets
of these\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1496\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx711\tx1523\tx2334 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 institutions. Available estimates show \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 that \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 these \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 other \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115
financial\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
intermediaries became increasingly \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 active in the
1990s, but still play a \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 minor role compared with MFIs.
At \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 the end of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 2002 the
assets of\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
insurance companies, mutual funds \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 and pension
funds in the euro area \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 were equivalent to 90% of
GDP, while \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 the assets of MFIs equalled 267%
of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 GDP. Nevertheless, the total amount \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 of assets of these other financial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 intermediaries in the euro area has \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 grown substantially, in particular since \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 the late 1990s. \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone
\li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0\par\pard\li1758\sb139\sl-218\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Table
2.12\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Bank deposits and loans in the euro area, the
United States\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi941 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 and Japan at end-2002\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone
\li1758\sb96\sl-172\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf33\f34\fs14 (as a percentage of
GDP)\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb69\sl-
184\slmult0\fi2479\tx5865\tx7090 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf34\f35\fs15 Bank deposits\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Bank
loans\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Bank loans to\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone
\li1758\sb1\sl-162\slmult0\fi5361 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 non-
financial\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb1\sl-166\slmult0\fi5398 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 corporations\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb42\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx4887\tx6201\tx7722 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Euro area\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
81.3\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 107.9\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
42.1\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx4887\tx6304\tx7721 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 United States\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 44.0\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 51.2\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 39.3\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx4783\tx6201\tx7721 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Japan\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 118.8\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 101.0\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 63.9\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb119\sl-161\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Sources: ECB, Federal Reserve
and Bank of Japan. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
39\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg41}
{\bkmkend Pg41}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-
240{\bkmkstart Pg42}{\bkmkend Pg42}\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-333\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1702\sb232\sl-333\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex95
\ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs29 3 THE ECB\u8217?S MONETARY POLICY STRATEGY \par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-251\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-251\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-251\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1535\sb42\sl-
251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf14\f15\fs20 This
chapter describes the ECB\u8217?s monetary policy strategy,i.e.the ECB\u8217?s
general \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 approach to achieving its primary
objective of maintaining price stability.The \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
first section focuses on the reasons underlying the assignment of this objective
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 to monetary policy. The second section
summarises the key features of the \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 monetary
policy transmission mechanism (i.e. the way in which monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 influences price developments) and discusses their
implications for the conduct \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 of monetary
policy.The final sections then explain the central elements of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 ECB\u8217?s strategy in greater
detail.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\
colsr160\colno3\colw4677\colsr160\ql \li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li614\sb106\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 By controlling\par\pard\qj
\li645\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0\fi20 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 the supply of
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the monetary\par\pard\ql \li1105\sb7\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 base\u8230?\par\pard\ql \li488\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li488\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li488\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
 \li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li488\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li665\sb138\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \u8230?the central\par\pard\ql \li950\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 bank can\par\pard\ql \li951\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 influence\par\pard\ql \li932\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 economic\par\pard\ql \li645\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 developments\par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li488\ri0\sb83\sl-
180\slmult0\tx584\tx640 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 In the long run, \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 changes in the \line \tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 money supply\par\pard\qj \li611\ri0\sb0\sl-180\slmult0\tx681
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 will affect the \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 general price\par\pard\ql \li1105\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 level...\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-207\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb125\sl-207\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 3.1 THE ROLE OF MONETARY
POLICY\par\pard\ql \li20\sb43\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-6\charscalex100 AND THE
BENEFITS OF PRICE STABILITY\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li20\ri662\sb8\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 What monetary policy can and \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 cannot do\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The way in which monetary
policy \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 exerts its influence on the economy \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 can be explained as follows. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 central bank is the sole issuer of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 banknotes and sole provider of bank \line \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 reserves, i.e. it is the monopoly supplier \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 of the monetary base. By virtue of this \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 monopoly, the central bank is able to \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 influence money market conditions and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 steer short-term interest rates.\par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 In the short run, a change in money \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 market interest rates induced by the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 central bank sets in motion a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 number of mechanisms and actions \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 by economic agents, ultimately \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 influencing developments in economic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 variables such as output or prices. This \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 process - also known as the monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 policy transmission mechanism - is \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 complex and, while its broad features \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 are understood, there is no unique and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 undisputed view of all the aspects \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 involved.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 However,
it is a widely accepted \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex123 proposition in
the economic \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 profession that, in the long run,
i.e. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 after all adjustments in the
economy\par\pard\column \ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb94\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
have worked through, a change in the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 quantity of money in the economy (all \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 other things being equal) will be \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 reflected in a change in the general\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 level of prices and
will not induce \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 permanent changes in real
variables \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 such as real output or
unemployment.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 A change in the quantity of money in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 circulation ultimately represents a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 change in the unit of account (and\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 thereby of the general
price level) \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 which leaves all other
variables \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 unchanged, in much the same
way\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 as
changing the standard unit used \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 to measure
distance (e.g. switching \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 from kilometres to
miles) would not\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 alter the actual distance between two \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 locations.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 This
general principle, referred to as\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?but not the\par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
\u8220?the long-run neutrality\u8221? of money,\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 level of real\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 income or\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb0\sl-136\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 underlies all standard macroeconomic\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 employment\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 thinking and theoretical frameworks. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex129 Real income or the level of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 employment in the economy are, in the\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 long run, essentially
determined by \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 real (supply-side) factors. These
are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 technology, population growth,
the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
preferences of economic agents and all \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 aspects of the
institutional framework \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 of the economy \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 (notably property\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 rights, tax policy, welfare policies
and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 other regulations determining the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 flexibility of markets and incentives to
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 41
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg43}
{\bkmkend
Pg43}\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw4942\colsr160\colno2\colw3188\co
lsr110\colno3\colw1390\colsr160\ql \li487\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li487\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li487\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 supply labour and capital and to
invest\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 in
human capital).\par\pard\ql \li487\sb0\sl-184\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li820\sb128\sl-
184\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
Inflation is\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 In the
long run, the central bank\par\pard\ql \li738\sb1\sl-179\slmult0\tx1695 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 ultimately a\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 cannot influence economic
growth by\par\pard\ql \li913\sb50\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 monetary\par\pard\ql \li711\sb11\sl-
180\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 phenomenon\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 changing the money supply.
Related to\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb1\sl-215\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 this
is the assertion that inflation is\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb33\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 ultimately a monetary phenomenon.\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 Indeed, prolonged
periods of high\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 inflation are typically associated with\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 high monetary growth.
While other\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx2511 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 factors\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex125 (such as
variations in\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114
aggregate demand, technological\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 changes or commodity price shocks)\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 can influence price
developments over\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 shorter horizons, over time their\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 effects can be offset by
some degree of\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
adjustment of the money stock. In this\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 sense, the longer-term trends of prices\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 or inflation can be
controlled by\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
central banks.\par\pard\ql \li487\sb0\sl-184\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li610\sb134\sl-
184\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Price
stability\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The close
association between the\par\pard\ql \li681\sb1\sl-179\slmult0\tx1695 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 enhances the\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 growth of money and inflation
in the\par\pard\ql \li695\sb50\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 potential for\par\pard\ql \li931\sb11\sl-
180\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 economic\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 economy and the long-run
neutrality\par\pard\ql \li1083\sb1\sl-179\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 growth\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of monetary policy have
been\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb62\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 confirmed
by a very large number of\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 economic studies, covering various\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 periods and countries. At
the same\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 time,
both empirical and theoretical\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 research has confirmed that the costs\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx2972 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 of
inflation\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 (and deflation) are\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 substantial and it is
today widely\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
acknowledged that price stability\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 contributes to increasing economic\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 welfare and the growth
potential of an\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 economy.\par\pard\ql \li487\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb64\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 The benefits of price stability\par\pard\ql
\li610\sb69\sl-184\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Price stability\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The objective of price stability
refers\par\pard\ql \li495\sb1\sl-179\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 supports higher\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 to the general level of
prices in the\par\pard\ql \li487\sb50\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 living standards\par\pard\ql
\li517\sb11\sl-180\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 by contributing\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 economy and implies
avoiding both\par\pard\ql \li1252\sb1\sl-179\slmult0\tx1695 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 to\u8230? \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 prolonged inflation and
deflation.\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb61\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
There are several ways in which price\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 stability contributes to achieving\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 high levels of economic
activity and\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
employment. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 42\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 First, price stability makes it easier
for\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 people
to recognise changes in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 relative prices,
since such changes are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 not obscured by
fluctuations in the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 overall price level. As a
result, firms \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 and consumers do not
misinterpret \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 general price level changes as
being \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 relative price changes and can make
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 better informed consumption and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 investment decisions. This then allows \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 the market to allocate resources more \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 efficiently. By helping the market to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 guide resources to where they can be \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 used most productively, price stability \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 increases the welfare of households \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 and thus the productive potential of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 the economy.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb250\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 Second, if creditors can be sure that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 prices will remain stable in the future, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 they will not demand an \u8220?inflation risk \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 premium\u8221? to compensate them for the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 risks associated with holding nominal \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 assets over the longer term. By \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 reducing such risk premia in the real \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex125 interest rate, monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex130 credibility contributes to the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 efficiency with which the capital \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 markets allocate resources and thus \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 increases the incentives to invest. This \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 in turn fosters economic welfare.\par\pard\qj
\li5102\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 Third, the credible maintenance of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 price stability also makes it less likely \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 that individuals and firms will divert \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 resources from productive uses in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 order to hedge against inflation. For \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex124 example, in a high-inflation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 environment there is an incentive \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 to stockpile real goods since they \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 retain their value better in such \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 circumstances
than money or certain \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 financial assets.
However, stockpiling \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 goods is not an efficient
investment \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 decision, and therefore hinders
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 economic growth.\par\pard\column \ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb61\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?improving the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri483\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 transparency \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 of relative\par\pard\ql \li20\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 prices,\u8230?\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb1\sl-172\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \u8230?reducing\par\pard\qj \li20\ri477\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 inflation risk \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 premia in\par\pard\ql \li20\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 interest\par\pard\ql \li20\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 rates,\u8230?\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb24\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \u8230?
avoiding\par\pard\qj \li20\ri543\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
unnecessary \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 hedging\par\pard\ql \li20\sb7\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 activities,\u8230?
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li470\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li470\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li470\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li470\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li470\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li470\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li470\sb21\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
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\expndtw-2\charscalex100 benefits of\par\pard\ql \li575\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 holding cash\u8230?\par\pard\ql \li578\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li578\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li578\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li578\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li578\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li578\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li578\sb0\sl-
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and\par\pard\ql \li1078\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
income\par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li546\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li552\ri0\sb73\sl-180\slmult0\tx611 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 By
maintaining \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 price stability\par\pard\ql
\li810\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the central\par\pard\ql
\li1224\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 bank\par\pard\ql
\li590\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 contributes
to\par\pard\ql \li1028\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
broader\par\pard\ql \li546\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 economic
goals\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Fourth, tax
and welfare systems can\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0\tx850\tx1606\tx2874 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 create perverse
incentives which \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 distort economic behaviour. In
most \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 cases, \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
these \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 distortions \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 are\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 exacerbated by inflation or deflation, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 as fiscal systems do not normally \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 allow for the indexation of tax rates \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 and social security contributions to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 the inflation rate. Price stability \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 eliminates the real costs entailed when \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 inflation exacerbates the distortionary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 impact of tax and social security \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 systems.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb250\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 Fifth, inflation acts as a tax on \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 holdings of cash. This reduces \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 household demand for cash and \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 consequently generates higher \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 transaction costs \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 (e.g.
shoe-leather\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
costs).\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri70\sb8\sl-
249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 Sixth, maintaining price stability
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 prevents the considerable and arbitrary \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 redistribution of wealth and income \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 that arises in inflationary as well as \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 deflationary environments, where \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 price trends change in unpredictable \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 ways (e.g. redistribution effects from \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 creditors to debtors). Typically, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 weakest groups of society often suffer \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 the most from inflation, as they have \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 only limited possibilities for hedging \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 against it. An environment of stable \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 prices thus helps to maintain social \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 cohesion and stability. As several \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 examples in the twentieth century \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 have demonstrated, high rates of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 inflation or deflation often create \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 social and political instability.\par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb1\sl-250\slmult0\tx1019
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 All these arguments suggest that a \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 central bank that maintains price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 stability \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 makes a
substantial\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx1479\tx2752 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 contribution to the achievement of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 broader economic goals, such as \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 higher standards of living, high \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 levels of economic activity and better \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 employment \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 prospects.
\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 This\par\pard\column \ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
conclusion is supported by economic\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 evidence which - for a wide variety of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 countries, methodologies and periods \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 - demonstrates that economies with\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 lower inflation
appear, on average, to \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 grow more rapidly in real terms
in the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 long run.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-6\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Assignments of the Treaty\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The
basic and widely shared principles\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The assignments\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
outlined above are reflected in the way\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 of the Treaty\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-
135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 reflect these\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
136\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 in
which the Treaty has allocated\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 general\par\pard\ql \li20\sb23\sl-
206\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
objectives and responsibilities to the\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 principles\u8230?\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb8\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 different
policy-making authorities. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex126 The primary
objective of the \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Eurosystem, and of the
single monetary\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 policy for which it is responsible, is \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 specified by the Treaty as the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 maintenance of price stability.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 Moreover, and \u8220?
without prejudice to \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 the objective of price
stability\u8221?, the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 Eurosystem shall also \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 \u8220?support the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 general economic policies in the \line
\up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Community with a view to contributing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 to the achievement of the objectives of\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 the Community\u8221?
which include a \u8220?high \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 level of
employment\u8221? and \u8220?sustainable \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 and
non-inflationary growth\u8221? \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 (see\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Chapter 1).\par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb64\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 The Treaty assigns overriding\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?by setting\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 importance to the Eurosystem\u8217?s\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 price
stability\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 as
the primary\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-136\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 objective of maintaining
price stability\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
objective of\par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-202\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 for good economic reasons.
Since\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 monetary
policy\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb9\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 monetary policy can ultimately only \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 influence the price level in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 economy, price stability is its only\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 natural objective.
Assigning monetary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 policy an objective for real
income or \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex122 employment would have
been\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
problematic since, apart from the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 positive
impact of price stability, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 monetary policy
has no scope for\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 exerting any lasting influence on real \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 variables. It is the task of other \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 economic actors, notably those\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 responsible for fiscal
and structural \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 policies, to enhance the
growth \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 43
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\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 pursuing its\par\pard\ql \li1019\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 primary\par\pard\ql \li646\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 objective, the\par\pard\ql \li789\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Eurosystem\par\pard\ql \li441\ri0\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0\fi195\tx701 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 needs to take \line \up0
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Community\u8217?s\par\pard\ql \li1027\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
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\par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li531\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li700\sb31\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
Transmission\par\pard\qj \li531\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0\tx706 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 mechanism and \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
transmission\par\pard\ql \li978\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
channels\par\pard\column \ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 potential of the economy. The clear\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx957 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 hierarchy of
objectives that the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Treaty establishes for the
Eurosystem \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 reflects \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex122 decades of practical\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 experience and a large number of
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 economic studies which suggest that \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 monetary policy will contribute most \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 to improving economic prospects and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 raising the living standards of citizens \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 by maintaining price stability in a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 lasting way.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb250\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 At the same time, the Treaty\u8217?s \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 assignments imply that, in the actual \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 implementation of monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 decisions aimed at maintaining price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 stability, and without prejudice to the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 achievement of this objective, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 Eurosystem should also take into \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 account the broader economic goals of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 the Community. In particular, given \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 that monetary policy can affect real \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 activity in the shorter term, the ECB \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 typically should avoid generating \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 excessive fluctuations in output and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 employment if this is in line with the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 pursuit of its primary objective.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri214\sb190\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-6\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 3.2 THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF \up0 \expndtw-
7\charscalex100 MONETARY POLICY\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 As the Governing Council of the ECB \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 is responsible for taking monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex124 policy decisions aimed at the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 maintenance of price stability, it is \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 crucial that the ECB develops a view \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 about how monetary policy affects \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 developments in the price level. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 process through which monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 policy decisions affect the economy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 in general, and the price level \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex122 in particular, is known as the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 transmission mechanism of monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 policy. The individual links through \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 which monetary policy impulses \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 (typically) proceed are known as \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 transmission channels.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
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monetary transmission\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The main channels of
monetary\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
The\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 policy transmission are set out in a\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 transmission\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 process\u8230?\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
simplified, schematic form in the left-\par\pard\ql \li20\sb1\sl-212\slmult0
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218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb66\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 The (long) chain of cause and effect\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?starts with
a\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 linking monetary policy decisions\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 change in\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 official
interest\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-136\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
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starts with a\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
rates\u8230?\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
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the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
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(see Chapter 4 for a detailed \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 description of
the Eurosystem\u8217?s\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 monetary policy instruments). The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 banking system demands money \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 issued by the central bank \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
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the central bank\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1499\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 thereby
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customers.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb64\sl-
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affecting\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb6\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
market interest\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0
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money market conditions and thereby\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
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money
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145145001451450014514500145145007fffd9}}}}}\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg46}
{\bkmkend Pg46}\par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-200\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\sb0\sl-
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200\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1541\sb75\sl-200\slmult0\tx2622 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Chart
3.1\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 A stylised illustration of the transmission
mechanism from interest \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 rates to
prices\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw6719\colsr160\colno2\colw2901\c
olsr160\ql \li3241\sb0\sl-149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li3241\sb0\sl-149\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li3241\sb143\sl-149\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf41\f42\fs13 OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES\par\pard\ql \li2686\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li2686\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li2686\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li2686\sb42\sl-161\slmult0\tx5051 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf42\f43\fs13 Expectations\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Bank and\par\pard\ql \li4732\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 market interest rates\par\pard\ql \li2508\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li2508\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li2508\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li2508\sb116\sl-161\slmult0\tx3838\tx5388 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 Money,\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Asset prices\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Exchange\par\pard\ql \li2556\sb0\sl-160\slmult0\tx5563 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 credit\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 rate\par\pard\ql
\li2354\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li2354\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li2354\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li2438\sb121\sl-161\slmult0\tx4360 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Wage and\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Supply and
demand\par\pard\ql \li2354\sb0\sl-160\slmult0\tx4105 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
price-setting\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 in goods and labour
markets\par\pard\ql \li3923\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li3923\sb0\sl-
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161\slmult0\tx5474 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Domestic\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Import\par\pard\ql \li4025\sb0\sl-160\slmult0\tx5498
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 prices\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
prices\par\pard\ql \li4122\sb0\sl-149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li4122\sb0\sl-
149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li4122\sb0\sl-149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li4122\sb63\sl-
149\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf41\f42\fs13 PRICE
DEVELOPMENTS\par\pard\column \ql \li7173\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li7173\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li314\sb30\sl-161\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf42\f43\fs13 Examples of\par\pard\ql
\li185\sb1\sl-159\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 shocks
outside\par\pard\ql \li410\sb1\sl-160\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 the control\par\pard\ql \li706\sb1\sl-159\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 of the\par\pard\ql \li323\sb1\sl-160\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 central bank\par\pard\ql \li6979\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li6979\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li6979\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li6979\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li6979\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li397\sb70\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Changes
in\par\pard\ql \li120\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 global
economy\par\pard\ql \li7173\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li7173\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li7173\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li397\sb123\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Changes in\par\pard\ql \li314\sb0\sl-
160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 fiscal policy\par\pard\ql \li6879\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li6879\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li6879\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li397\sb106\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
Changes in\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-160\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
commodity
prices\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\c
olsr160\colno3\colw4677\colsr160\qj \li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li773\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li773\ri0\sb150\sl-180\slmult0\tx1006 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?and asset \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 prices\u8230?\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb25\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 market rate changes on interest rates
at\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx2515 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 very
long maturities \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 (e.g.\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 10-year\par\pard\qj \li20\ri69\sb7\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 government bond yields, long-term \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 bank lending rates) is less direct. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Those rates depend to a large extent on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 market expectations for long-term \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 growth and inflation trends in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 economy. In other words, changes in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 the central bank\u8217?s official rates do not \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 normally affect these longer-term rates \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 unless they were to lead to a change in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 market expectations concerning long-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 term economic trends.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
Because of the impact it has on \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 financing
conditions in the economy -\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 but also because of
its impact on \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 expectations - monetary policy can
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 affect other financial variables such as
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 asset prices (e.g. stock market prices) \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 and exchange rates.\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 Changes in interest rates and financial\tab \up0 \expndtw-
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\li3308\sb3\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 credit,
savings\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 asset prices in turn affect the
saving,\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 and investment\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
137\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
spending and investment decisions of\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 decisions,\u8230?\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 households
and firms. For example, all \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 other things being
equal, higher \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 interest rates tend to make it
less\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
attractive for households or companies \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 to take
out loans in order to finance \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 their consumption
or investment.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Higher interest rates also make it more \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 attractive for households to save their \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 current income rather than spend it,\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 since the return on
their savings is \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 increased. Furthermore, changes
in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 official interest rates may also
affect\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 the
supply of credit. For example, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 following an
increase in interest rates, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 the risk that some
borrowers cannot\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 safely pay back their loans may \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 increase to a level such that banks \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 will not grant a loan to these\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb0\sl-171\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 borrowers. As a consequence,
such \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li602\sb28\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?
leading to a\par\pard\ql \li914\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
change in\par\pard\ql \li907\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
aggregate\par\pard\ql \li739\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
demand and\par\pard\ql \li1149\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
prices\par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li625\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li920\sb17\sl-172\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Effects of\par\pard\qj \li625\ri0\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0\tx816 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 exchange rate \line\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 changes on\par\pard\ql \li1149\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 prices\par\pard\column \ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 borrowers, households or firms,\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri73\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 would be forced to
postpone their \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 consumption or investment
plans.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb190\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
Finally, movements in asset prices \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex122 may affect
consumption and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 investment via income and
wealth \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 effects. For example, as equity prices
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 rise, share-owning households become \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 wealthier and may choose to increase \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 their consumption. Conversely, when \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 equity prices fall, households may \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 well reduce consumption. An \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 additional way in which asset prices \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 can impact on aggregate demand is via \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 the value of collateral that allows \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 borrowers to get more loans and/or to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 reduce the risk premia demanded by \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 lenders/banks. Lending decisions are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 often influenced to a large extent by \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 the amount of collateral. If the value \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 of collateral falls then loans will \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 become more expensive and may even \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 be difficult to obtain at all, with the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 result that spending will fall.\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-
249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
As a consequence of changes in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 consumption
and investment, the level \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 of domestic demand for
goods and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 services relative to domestic
supply \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 will change. When demand exceeds \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 supply, all other things being equal, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 upward pressure on prices is likely to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 result. Moreover, changes in aggregate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 demand may translate into tighter \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 or looser conditions in labour and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 intermediate product markets, and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 these in turn can affect wage and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 price-setting in the respective market.\par\pard\qj
\li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 Changes in the exchange rate will \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 normally affect inflation in three \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 ways. First, exchange rate movements \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 may directly affect the domestic price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 of imported goods. If the exchange \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 rate appreciates, the price of imported \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 goods tends to fall, thus helping to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 reduce inflation directly, insofar as
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
46\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 these
products are directly used in\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 consumption. Second, if these imports \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 are used as inputs into the production \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 process, lower prices for inputs \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 might, over time, feed through into \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 lower prices for final goods. Third, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 exchange rate developments may also \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 have an effect via their impact on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 the competitiveness of domestically \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 produced goods on international \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 markets. If an appreciation in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 exchange rate makes domestically \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 produced goods less competitive in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 terms of their price on world markets, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 this tends to constrain external \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 demand and thus reduce overall \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 demand pressure in the economy. All \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex130 other things being equal, an \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 appreciation of the exchange rate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 would thus tend to reduce inflationary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 pressures. The strength of exchange \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 rate effects depends on how open the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 economy is to international trade. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 Exchange rate effects are in general \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 less important for a large, relatively \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 closed currency area like the euro area \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 than for a small open economy. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Clearly, financial asset prices depend \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 on many other factors in addition to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 monetary policy, and changes in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 the exchange rate are also often \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 dominated by these factors.\par\pard\qj \li5102\sb0\sl-
249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex122
Other channels through which \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 monetary policy
can influence price \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 developments mainly work
by \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 influencing the private sector\u8217?s
longer-\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 term expectations. If a central bank
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 enjoys a high degree of credibility in \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 pursuing its objective, monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 policy can exert a powerful direct \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 influence on price developments by \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 guiding economic agents\u8217? expectations \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 of future inflation and thereby \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 influencing their wage and price-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 setting behaviour. The credibility of a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 central bank to maintain price stability \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 in a lasting manner is crucial in this\par\pard\column
\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb44\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Anchoring\par\pard\ql \li20\sb8\sl-172\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
inflation\par\pard\ql \li20\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
expectations
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\li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li455\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
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\li455\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0\tx657\tx624 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
characterised by \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 long, variable \line
\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 and uncertain\par\pard\ql \li791\sb7\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 time lags\u8230?\par\pard\ql
\li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li665\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1000\sb84\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
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2\charscalex100 influenced by\par\pard\ql \li870\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 exogenous\par\pard\ql \li1109\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 shocks\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 respect. Only if economic agents\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 believe in the central
bank\u8217?s ability \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 and commitment to maintain
price \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 stability will inflation expectations
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 remain firmly anchored to price \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 stability. This, in turn, will influence \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 wage and price-setting in the economy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 given that, in an environment of price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 stability, wage and price-setters will \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 not have to adjust their prices \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 upwards for fear of higher inflation in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 the future. In this respect, credibility \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 facilitates the task of monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 policy.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 The dynamic process outlined above \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 involves a number of different \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 mechanisms and actions by economic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 agents at various stages of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 process. As a result, monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 action usually takes a considerable \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 time to affect price developments. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 Furthermore, the size and strength \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 of the different effects can vary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 according to the state of the economy, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 which makes the precise impact \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 difficult to estimate. Taken together, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 central banks typically see themselves \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 confronted with long, variable and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 uncertain lags in the conduct of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 monetary policy.\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0\tx1385\tx2005 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
Identifying\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 the\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
transmission\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb7\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
mechanism of monetary policy is \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 complicated
by the fact that, in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 practice, economic
developments are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 continuously influenced by
shocks \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 from a large variety of sources. For
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 instance, changes in oil or other \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 commodity prices or in administered \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 prices can have a short-term, direct \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex122 impact on inflation. Similarly, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 developments in the world economy or \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 in fiscal policies may influence \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 aggregate demand and thereby price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 developments. Furthermore, financial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 asset prices and exchange rates \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 depend on many other factors in\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 addition to monetary policy. Monetary\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 policy therefore needs
not only to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 monitor the transmission of monetary
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 policy changes but also to take into\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 account all other
developments \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 relevant for future inflation in
order \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 to avoid these having any
impact\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 on
longer-term inflation trends and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex125 expectations
in a way that is \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 inconsistent with price
stability. The\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 required path of monetary policy is \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 always dependent on the nature, size \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 and duration of the shocks hitting the\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 economy, and it is
a permanent \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 challenge for the central bank
to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 understand which factors are
driving\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
price trends in order to find the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
appropriate monetary policy reaction.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 Central
banks are, thus, typically\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Complexity\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
confronted with a complex web of\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 of the\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 transmission\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
139\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
economic interactions. Given this\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 process\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 complexity,
they often also take into \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 account some simple
rules of thumb \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 to guide or cross-check their
action.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116
One such rule is based on the fact \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 that
inflation is always a monetary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 phenomenon in the
medium to long\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 term. This rule recommends that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 central banks be generally aware of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 monetary developments in order to\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb10\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 assess inflation
trends.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb64\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Although the use of empirical
methods\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
Empirical\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex130 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 for the quantification of
the\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
knowledge\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 of
the\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-136\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 transmission mechanism and its\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 transmission\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb00\sl-204\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 channels has proved to be of great help\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 process\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb8\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 in recent decades, the results have \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 shed only a partial light on the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 complex process involved. In addition,\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 the ECB faces a level
of uncertainty \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 that may even be somewhat greater
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 than that faced by many other
central\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1496\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
banks, since the ECB took over \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
responsibility for an entirely new \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 currency
area. Moreover, institutional\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 and behavioural changes following the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 introduction of the single currency at
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 47
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg49}
{\bkmkend Pg49}\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb186\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Box
3.1\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Empirical findings on monetary policy
transmission in the euro area \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1618\sb134\sl-252\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Understanding the
transmission mechanism is crucial for monetary policy. It is, therefore, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 not surprising that a number of studies - produced by both
academics and Eurosystem \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 staff - have tried to
shed more light on the complex interactions underlying it. While still \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 subject to considerable uncertainty (among other
things related to the use of largely pre-\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 1999
data), the main results of the studies on this issue seem to confirm that a
number \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 of widely accepted and well-established
facts are also valid for the euro area. \par\pard\qj \li1757\sb0\sl-240\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1757\ri1674\sb18\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 Empirical estimates of the effects of changes in the
short-term interest rate on real \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 activity and
prices \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb12\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Several econometric models of the euro area have been
used to estimate the effects of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 changes in the
short-term interest rate on output and prices. As an illustration, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Table 3.1 shows the results of the effects of changes in
short-term interest rates based \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 on three
different models of the euro area, which reflect different economic structures
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 and/or econometric methodologies. The table
shows the responses of the levels of GDP \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 and
prices to a transitory 1 percentage point increase in the policy interest rate
controlled \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 by the central bank, which is then
maintained at the higher level for two years. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 The main features of the responses of GDP
and prices are qualitatively consistent across \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 all
three models. An increase in short-term interest rates results in a temporary
decrease \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 in output, which peaks about two years after
the initial monetary policy impulse and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 reverts back
to the baseline level thereafter. At the same time, prices adjust gradually \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 to a permanently lower level. \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1619\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 Broadly similar
patterns are seen in a larger class of empirical models than those \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 reported in Table 3.1 and they are consistent with the
results for other countries and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 with the most
consensual theoretical models of the transmission mechanism. In short, \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 they show that monetary policy is neutral in the long run.
Its effect on output is \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 temporary while its effect on
prices is permanent. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb230\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 However, the magnitude and the timing of these responses
are quite different across \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 models, reflecting
the uncertainty about the precise features of the transmission \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 mechanism. For instance, the peak output responses in the
three models shown in \par\pard\ql \li1814\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1814\sb79\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Table 3.1\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Estimates of
responses of real GDP and consumer prices to a \par\pard\qj \li2607\ri1757\sb24\sl-
240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 1 percentage point increase in the
policy-controlled interest rate \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 in the euro area
\par\pard\li1814\sb96\sl-184\slmult0\fi1559\tx6094 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf34\f35\fs15 Real GDP\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Consumer
prices\par\pard\li1814\sb16\sl-
184\slmult0\fi978\tx3473\tx4153\tx4834\tx5514\tx6194\tx6874\tx7555 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Year 1\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Year 2\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Year 3\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Year 4\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Year 1\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Year 2\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Year 3\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Year
4\par\pard\li1814\sb38\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx2829\tx3510\tx4190\tx4870\tx5550\tx6231\tx6911\tx7591 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Model 1\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.34\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.71\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.71\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.63\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.15\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.30\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.38\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
-0.49\par\pard\li1814\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx2829\tx3510\tx4190\tx4870\tx5550\tx6231\tx6911\tx7591 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Model 2\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.22\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.38\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.29\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.14\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.09\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.21\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.31\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.40\par\pard\li1814\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx2829\tx3510\tx4190\tx4870\tx5550\tx6231\tx6911\tx7591 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Model 3\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.34\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.47\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.37\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.28\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.06\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.10\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.19\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 -0.31\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1757\sb30\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Source: \u8220?Recent findings on monetary policy
transmission\u8221?, ECB\u8217?s Monthly Bulletin, October 2002. \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1644\sb4\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Notes: Numbers are
expressed as a percentage change compared with the initial levels of GDP and the
index \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 of prices. Model 1 is the ECB\u8217?s
Area-Wide Model (AWM). Model 2 refers to an aggregate of the macroeconomic \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 models of the national central banks of the euro area.
Model 3 is the multi-country model of the United \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
Kingdom\u8217?s National Institute of Economic and Social Research. The simulations
reported assume that the interest \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 rate increase
triggers an increase in the long-term interest rate and an exchange rate
appreciation. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 48
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg50}
{\bkmkend Pg50}\par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-246\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\sb0\sl-
246\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1617\sb205\sl-246\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Table 3.1 range between
-0.38% and -0.71% and, two years after the initial interest rate \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 shock, the price response lies in a range between -0.10%
and -0.30%. Altogether, these \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 estimates confirm the
existence of long and uncertain lags in the mechanism by which \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 monetary policy affects the price level. \par\pard\ql
\li1758\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb82\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 Evidence on the channels of monetary
policy transmission in the euro area \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb26\sl-
243\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Regarding
the responses of individual components of GDP to interest rate changes, some
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 studies stress the importance of the impact of
monetary policy on investment compared \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 with its
impact on consumption and other components of aggregate demand. Business \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 investment is mainly influenced by changes in the user cost
of capital (a variable that \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 is closely linked to
interest rates). It is also sensitive, albeit to a more limited extent, \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 to liquidity or cash-flow constraints (i.e. the
ability of firms to issue debt on financial \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
markets or to borrow from banks). \par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-242\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1618\sb16\sl-242\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114
Available empirical studies also suggest that exchange rate effects can be quite
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 important in the euro area. Hence, the response
of consumer prices to a change in the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 official
central bank interest rates will also depend on the effects of this change on
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 exchange rate. For example, the larger the
appreciation of the euro triggered by a change \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
in interest rates, the faster and larger the decline in inflation will be. However,
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 central bank can take for granted neither
the size nor the direction of the exchange rate \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
response to the interest rate because this response depends on other factors, e.g.
foreign \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 monetary policy developments, that are
not controlled by the central
bank.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols4\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\co
lsr160\colno3\colw3188\colsr110\colno4\colw1389\colsr160\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li799\sb30\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The task
of\par\pard\ql \li471\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 monetary
policy\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb215\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 the beginning of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 1999
may have\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx1108 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 altered the relationships between \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 different \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 economic
variables.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx1710\tx2304 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 However, more information and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 research results have become available \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 over time and a more detailed \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 understanding \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 of \tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 monetary\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb1\sl-249\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 transmission in the euro area has \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 developed (see Box 3.1 for a summary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 of recent empirical findings on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 monetary policy transmission in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 euro area). Nevertheless, further \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 progress and continuous monitoring \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 are clearly needed.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri619\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
6\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 3.3 THE ECB\u8217?S MONETARY POLICY
\line \up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex100 STRATEGY: GENERAL PRINCIPLES\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Takingintoaccount the knowledge about \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 the transmission process, the challenge \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 faced by the ECB can be stated as \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 follows: the Governing Council of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 ECB has to influence conditions in the \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 money market, and thereby the level of\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb215\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 short-term interest rates,
to ensure that\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 price stability is maintained over the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 medium term. In so doing, the central \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 bank is continuously confronted with \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 a high level of uncertainty regarding \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 both the nature of the economic shocks \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 hitting the economy and the existence \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 and strength of the relationships that \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 link macroeconomic variables. Against \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 this background, it is possible to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 identify some key characteristics of a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 successful monetary policy.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
First, as stressed in Section \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 3.2,\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 monetary policy will be
considerably \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 more effective if it firmly anchors
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 inflation expectations. In this respect,
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 the central bank should specify its \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex123 goal, elaborate and stick to a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 consistent and systematic method for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 conducting monetary policy, and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 communicate clearly and openly. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 These are key elements for acquiring \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 a high level of credibility, a necessary
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb152\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Monetary policy\par\pard\qj \li20\ri280\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 should firmly \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 anchor inflation \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
expectations\u8230?
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\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
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expectations of economic actors.\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 Second,
owing to the lags in the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 transmission
process, changes in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 monetary policy today will
only affect \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 the price level after a number
of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 quarters or years. This means that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 central banks need to ascertain what \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 policy stance is needed today in order \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 to maintain price stability in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 future, after the transmission lags \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 unwind. In this sense, monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 must be forward-looking.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri73\sb190\sl-
250\slmult0\tx1208\tx2114\tx2631 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 As the transmission
lags make it \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 impossible in the short run
for \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 monetary \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
policy \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 to \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
offset\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
unanticipated shocks to the price level \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 (for
example, those caused by changes \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 in
international commodity prices), \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 some short-term
volatility in inflation \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 rates is unavoidable.
In addition, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 owing to the complexity of
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 transmission process, there is always
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 a large element of uncertainty \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 surrounding the effects of monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 policy. For these reasons, monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 policy should have a medium-term \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 orientation in order to avoid excessive \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 activism and the introduction of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 unnecessary volatility into the real \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 economy.\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 Finally,
just like any other central \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 bank, the ECB
faces considerable \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 uncertainty about the
reliability of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 economic indicators, the
structure of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 the economy and the monetary policy
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 transmission mechanism, among other \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 things. A successful monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 therefore has to be broadly based, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 taking into account all relevant \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 information in order to understand the \line \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 factors driving economic developments, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 and cannot rely on a single model of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 the economy.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
50\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The ECB has
adopted and announced\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 a monetary policy strategy to ensure a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 consistent and systematic approach \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 to monetary policy decisions. This \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 monetary policy strategy embodies the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 above-mentioned general principles in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 order to meet the challenges facing the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 central bank. It aims to provide a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 comprehensive framework within \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 which decisions on the appropriate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 level of short-term interest rates can \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 be taken.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb250\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 The first element of the ECB\u8217?s \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex125 monetary policy strategy is a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 quantitative definition of price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 stability. In addition, the strategy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 provides a framework which ensures \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 that the Governing Council assesses \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 all the relevant information and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 analysis needed to take monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 policy decisions in a forward-looking \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 manner and thereby ensure the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 maintenance of price stability. In this \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 respect, the strategy also provides a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 framework for explaining monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 policy decisions to the public in a clear \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 and transparent manner. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 remaining sections of this chapter \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 describe these elements in detail.\par\pard\ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb79\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
6\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 3.4 THE ECB\u8217?S
QUANTITATIVE\par\pard\ql \li20\sb43\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100
DEFINITION OF PRICE STABILITY\par\pard\qj \li5102\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb10\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 While the Treaty clearly establishes \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 the maintenance of price stability \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 as the primary objective of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Eurosystem, it does not give a precise \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 definition of what is meant by price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 stability. In order to specify this \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex127 objective more precisely, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 Governing Council of the ECB \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 announced the following quantitative \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 definition in \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 1998: \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 \u8220?Price stability\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb1\sl-
250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 shall be defined as a year-on-year \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 increase in the Harmonised Index of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 area of below 2%. Price stability is to\par\pard\column \ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb64\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The role of the\par\pard\ql \li20\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 strategy: a\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri265\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 comprehensive \line
\up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 framework for \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
monetary policy \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 decisions\par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb116\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 The main\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri299\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 elements of the
\line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 ECB\u8217?s monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 policy strategy\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri472\sb16\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 The ECB
has \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 defined price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 stability in\par\pard\qj \li20\ri528\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 quantitative \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 terms

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Pg52}\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\co
lsr160\colno3\colw4677\colsr160\ql \li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li400\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li919\sb69\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 This both\par\pard\qj \li422\ri0\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0\fi3 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 anchors inflation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 expectations and\par\pard\ql \li778\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 adds to the\par\pard\qj \li400\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 transparency and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
accountability of\par\pard\ql \li1029\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 the ECB\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li599\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li702\sb137\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Focus on
the\par\pard\ql \li599\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 euro area as
a\par\pard\ql \li1159\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
whole\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 be
maintained over the medium\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 term\u8221?. Following a thorough \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 evaluation of its monetary policy \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 strategy in \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 2003, the
Governing\par\pard\qj \li20\ri70\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
Council further clarified that, within \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 the definition,
it aims to maintain \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 inflation rates below but close to
2% \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 over the medium term.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-
249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri70\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
The Governing Council decided to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 publicly
announce a quantitative \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 definition of price
stability for a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 number of reasons. First, by
clarifying \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 how the Governing Council
interprets \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 the goal it has been assigned by
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 Treaty, the definition helps to make
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 the monetary policy framework easier \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 to understand (i.e. it makes monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 policy more transparent). Second, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 definition of price stability provides a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 clear and measurable yardstick against \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 which the public can hold the ECB \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 accountable. Deviations of price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 developments from the definition of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 price stability can be identified, and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 the ECB would then be required to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 provide an explanation for such \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 deviations and to explain how it \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 intends to re-establish price stability \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 within an acceptable period of time. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 Finally, the definition provides \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 guidance to the public for forming \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex125 expectations of future price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 developments. All these positive \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 features of the definition were even \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 further enhanced by the clarification \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 of the Governing Council that it aims, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 within the definition, at inflation rates \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 of close to 2%.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 The
definition of price stability makes \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 clear that
the Eurosystem has a euro \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 area-wide mandate.
Accordingly, price \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 stability is assessed on the
basis of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 price developments in the euro
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 area viewed as a whole, indicating \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 that decisions regarding the single \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 monetary policy aim at achieving price\par\pard\column
\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 stability in the euro area as a whole.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 This focus on the euro
area as a whole \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 is the natural consequence of
the fact \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 that, within a monetary
union,\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
monetary policy can only steer the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 average money
market interest rate \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 level in the area, i.e. it
must use a tool\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
that is uniform across the area.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb64\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 The
definition also identifies a\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The HICP\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 specific price
index \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 - namely the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 HICP for the euro area - as the one to
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 be used for assessing whether price \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 stability has been achieved. This index\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 has been harmonised
across the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 various countries of the euro area.
The \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 HICP is the index that most
closely\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
approximates the changes over time in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 the price
of a representative basket of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 consumer spending
(see Box 3.2). The\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 use of a harmonised index makes \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 transparent the ECB\u8217?s commitment to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 the full and effective protection\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 against losses in the
purchasing power \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 of money.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 By referring to \u8220?an increase in the\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Reasons for\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb6\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 aiming at\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
HICP of below 2%\u8221? the definition\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-120\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 inflation
rates\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-136\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 makes clear that not only inflation\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 of below
but\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-171\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 above 2% but also that deflation (i.e.\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 close to
2%:\u8230?\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1496\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 price level declines) is inconsistent \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 with price stability. In this respect, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 explicit indication by the ECB to aim\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 to maintain the
inflation rate at a level \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 below but close to 2%
- i.e. close to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 the upper boundary of the
definition -\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb1\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 signals its commitment to provide an \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 adequate margin to avoid the risks of \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 deflation.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 While
deflation implies similar costs\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?costs of\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb1\sl-
168\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 deflation,\u8230?\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
to the economy as inflation \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 (see\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Section 3.1), avoiding
deflation is also \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 important because, once it
occurs, it \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 may become entrenched as a
result\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 of
the fact that nominal interest \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 rates cannot
fall below zero. In a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 deflationary environment
monetary \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 51
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{\bkmkend Pg53}\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-
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3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Box 3.2\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19
Construction and features of the HICP \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb160\sl-
245\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 The
Governing Council of the ECB has defined price stability in terms of the Harmonised
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro
area. The conceptual work related to the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
compilation of this price index is carried out by the European Commission
(Eurostat) in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 close liaison with the national
statistical institutes. As key users, the ECB and, previously, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 the European Monetary Institute (EMI), have been closely
involved in this work. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1618\sb237\sl-243\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 The HICP data released by Eurostat are available from
January 1995 onwards. Estimated \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 backdata, which
are not fully comparable with HICP data from 1995, are available for \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 the overall HICP and its main components from 1990. Based
on the consumer expenditure \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 weights applicable
for 2003, goods account for 59.1% and services account for 40.9% \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 of the HICP (see Table 3.2). The main idea behind a
breakdown of overall HICP into \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 individual
components is to identify the different economic factors that impact on \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 consumer price developments. For example, developments
in the energy price component \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 are closely
related to oil price movements. Food prices are divided into processed and \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 unprocessed foods, because prices for the latter are
influenced by factors such as weather \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 conditions
and seasonal patterns, while such factors have less of an impact on processed \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 food prices. Services prices are sub-divided into five
components which, on account of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 different market
conditions, typically show differences in their respective developments.
\par\pard\qj \li1757\sb0\sl-243\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1757\ri1618\sb14\sl-
243\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 The harmonisation measures introduced for
the HICP in the different countries are based \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 on
several EC Regulations and Guidelines agreed with the Member States. Among other
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 things, they concern coverage of consumer
spending, initial standards for the procedures \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
of quality adjustment, the treatment of new goods and services, and the revision of
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 weights. \u8220?Initial\u8221? refers to the
fact that some further harmonisation is foreseen in several \line \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 areas. Moreover, a detailed and harmonised classification has been
agreed for sub-indices, \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 allowing a consistent
comparison of price developments in detailed consumer expenditure \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 sub-groups across countries. As a result of its
harmonisation and statistical improvements \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 aimed
at enhancing its accuracy, reliability and timeliness, the HICP has become a
high-\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 quality, international-standard price index
and a broadly comparable indicator across \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
countries. Improvements are still ongoing with regard to the standards for
quality \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 adjustment and sampling, as well as the
treatment of owner-occupiers\u8217? housing costs. \par\pard\ql \li1814\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1814\sb80\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
7\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Table
3.2\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Weights of the main euro area HICP components
applicable for 2003 \par\pard\li1814\sb99\sl-184\slmult0\fi0\tx7031 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf34\f35\fs15 Overall index\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 100.0\par\pard\li1814\sb38\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx7068
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Goods prices\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 59.1\par\pard\li1814\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi141\tx7172
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Unprocessed food\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
7.6\par\pard\li1814\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi141\tx7068 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
Processed food\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 11.7\par\pard\li1814\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi141\tx7068 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Non-energy industrial
goods\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 31.6\par\pard\li1814\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi141\tx7172 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Energy\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 8.2\par\pard\li1814\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx7068 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Services\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
40.9\par\pard\li1814\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi141\tx7068 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
Housing services\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 10.4\par\pard\li1814\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi141\tx7172 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Transport\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 6.3\par\pard\li1814\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi245\tx7172
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Communication\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
2.9\par\pard\li1814\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi245\tx7068 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
Recreation and personal services\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
14.9\par\pard\li1814\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi245\tx7172 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
Miscellaneous\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 6.4\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb112\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Source:
Eurostat. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 52
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\li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li663\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li663\sb102\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?taking into\par\pard\ql \li903\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 account a\par\pard\ql \li939\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 potential\par\pard\ql \li666\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 measurement\par\pard\ql \li1133\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 bias\u8230?\par\pard\column \ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 policy may thus not be
able to\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119
sufficiently stimulate aggregate \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 demand by
using its interest rate \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 instrument. Any
attempt to bring the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 nominal interest rate
below zero \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 would fail, as the public would
prefer \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 to hold cash rather than to lend or
hold \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 deposits at a negative rate. Although \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 various monetary policy actions are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 possible even when nominal interest \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 rates are at zero, the effectiveness of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 these alternative policies is not \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 certain. This makes it more difficult \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 for monetary policy to fight deflation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 than to fight inflation.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 By setting the upper bound for
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 inflation clearly above zero and \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 aiming at inflation below but close to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 2%, the ECB also takes into account \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 the possibility of HICP inflation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 slightly overstating true inflation as \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 a result of a small but positive bias \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 in the measurement of price level \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 changes using the HICP. For various \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 reasons, consumer price indices may \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 be subject to measurement errors. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 Such errors may arise if prices are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 not adequately adjusted for changes \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex122 in quality or if some relevant \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 transactions remain systematically out \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 of the sample used to construct the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 index.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 In the
past, a number of economic \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 studies have
identified a small but \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 positive bias in the
measurement of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 national consumer price
indices, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 suggesting that (as a result of quality
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 improvements in goods, for example) \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 a measured inflation rate of zero could \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 in fact imply a slight decline in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 actual price level. Where the euro \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 area is concerned, evidence of a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 measurement bias in the HICP remains \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 scarce, reflecting its short history. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 However, some studies indicate that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 the size of the bias is likely to be\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex129 limited, even if the level of\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 uncertainty that
surrounds these \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 estimates is still very
high. In \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 addition, taking into account
the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
continuous improvements being made \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 to the
HICP\u8217?s properties by Eurostat \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 (the
European Commission agency\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 responsible for this area of statistics at \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 EU level), any bias is likely to further \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 decline in the future.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 The setting of a precise objective for\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?and the\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 monetary policy in a monetary union\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 implications
of\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
inflation\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-136\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 also takes into account the
existence of\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
differentials in\par\pard\ql \li20\sb23\sl-205\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 inflation differentials
across regions in\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
the euro area\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb8\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 the union to avoid some
regions being \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 forced to structurally operate
at \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 excessively low or negative
inflation\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0\tx784\tx2370 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 rates.\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex122 In principle,\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 inflation\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 differentials across regions are a
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 normal feature of any monetary union. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 They are an integral part of the\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1496\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 adjustment mechanism
resulting from \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 divergences in economic
developments \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 across the regions\u8217?
economies.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
Monetary policy can only influence \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 the price
level of the euro area as a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 whole and cannot
affect inflation\par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 differentials across regions or cities.\par\pard\qj
\li5103\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 Inflation differentials may be due to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 transitory factors and may thus be only \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 temporary. Such differentials are of\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 little economic
concern. However, if \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 real convergence between
regions in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 a currency union is
incomplete,\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb1\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 structural inflation differentials across \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 the regions comprising the union may \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 arise. For example, there may be\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 differences in initial
income levels and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 an ongoing process of
catching-up in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 standards of living within a
currency\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
area. If there are structural inflation \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
differences in the euro area, this could \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
potentially
create economic problems\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 in countries or regions with below-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 average inflation, especially if these \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 countries had to structurally operate
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 53
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg55}
{\bkmkend
Pg55}\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4942\colsr160\colno2\colw4678\co
lsr160\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb51\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 with negative inflation
rates. \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 (Such\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri72\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 problems may emerge, for instance, if
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 economies are affected by downward \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 nominal rigidities, i.e. the difficulty or \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 impossibility of implementing cuts \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 in wages and prices - which could \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 impede the necessary adjustments in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 relative prices and thus hamper an \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 efficient allocation of resources).\par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri72\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 Given the
existence of such \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 unavoidable inflation
differences, it has \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 been argued that the
ECB\u8217?s monetary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 policy should aim to
achieve over the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 medium-term an inflation rate
for the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 area as a whole that is high enough
to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 prevent regions with structurally
lower\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 inflation rates from having to meet
the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1499\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 costs
of possible downward nominal \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 rigidities or
entering periods of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 protracted deflation.
According to all\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 available studies, a rate of inflation \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 below but close to 2% for the euro area \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 also provides a sufficient margin in this\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 respect.\par\pard\ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb64\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 Finally, a fundamental aspect of the\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ECB\u8217?s monetary policy is that it aims\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 medium-
term\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
orientation\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 to pursue price stability \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 \u8220?over the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 medium term\u8221?. As outlined above, this \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 reflects the consensus that monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 policy cannot, and therefore should\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 not attempt to, fine-
tune developments \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 in prices or inflation
over short \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \ql \li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1757\sb136\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Box 3.3\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 The medium-term
orientation of the ECB\u8217?s monetary policy \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1619\sb136\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 An economy is continuously subject to largely
unforeseeable shocks that also affect \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 price
developments. At the same time, monetary policy can only affect price \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 developments with significant time lags, which are
variable and, like most economic \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 relationships,
highly uncertain. Against this background, it would be impossible for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 any central bank to keep inflation at a specific point
target at all times or to bring it \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 back to a
desired level within a very short period of time. Consequently, monetary policy
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 needs to act in a forward-looking manner and can
only maintain price stability over \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 longer
periods of time. This is the reasoning that lies at the core of the ECB\u8217?s
medium-\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 term orientation. \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1619\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 The medium term
notion deliberately retains some flexibility with regard to the exact \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 time frame. This reflects the fact that it is not advisable
to specify ex-ante a precise \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 horizon for the
conduct of monetary policy, since the transmission mechanism spans \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 a variable, uncertain period of time. Furthermore, the
optimal monetary policy response \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 to ensure price
stability always depends on the specific nature and size of the shocks \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 affecting the economy. For a wide variety of shocks
(e.g. demand shocks, that move \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 output and prices
in the same direction) a prompt reaction by monetary policy is often \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 adequate and will not only preserve price stability but
also help to stabilise the economy. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 However,
there are other types of economic shock (e.g. of a cost-push nature, like oil \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 price hikes) that move output and prices in opposite
directions. An excessively \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 aggressive policy
response to restore price stability in a very short span of time may, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 in these circumstances, risk imparting a significant cost
in terms of output and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 employment volatility
which, over a longer horizon, could also affect price \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 developments. In these cases, it is widely recognised that a
gradual response of monetary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 policy is
appropriate both to avoid unnecessarily high volatility in real activity and to
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 maintain price stability over a longer horizon.
Thus, the medium-term orientation also \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 gives the
ECB the flexibility required to respond in an appropriate manner to the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 different economic shocks that might occur.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 54
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172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 framework is a\par\pard\ql
\li1032\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 tool for\par\pard\ql
\li868\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 organising\par\pard\ql
\li623\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
information\u8230?\par\pard\ql \li514\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li514\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li514\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
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\li514\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li514\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li514\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li514\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li514\sb63\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \u8230?based on
two\par\pard\ql \li904\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
analytical\par\pard\ql \li585\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
perspectives\u8230?\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 horizons of a few weeks or months.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 Changes in monetary
policy only \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 affect prices with a time lag, and
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 magnitude of the eventual impact is \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 uncertain \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 (see
Section \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 3.2). This\par\pard\qj \li20\ri69\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 implies that monetary policy cannot
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 offset all unanticipated disturbances to
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 the price level. Some short-term \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 volatility in inflation is therefore \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 inevitable. As Box 3.3 explains, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 medium-term orientation also allows \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 monetary policy to take into account \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 concerns about output fluctuations, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 without prejudice to attaining the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 primary objective.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri350\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-8\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 3.5 THE
ANALYSIS OF RISKS TO PRICE \up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex100 STABILITY IN THE
ECB\u8217?S MONETARY \up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex100 POLICY STRATEGY\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 In order to best serve its objective of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 maintaining price stability, the ECB, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 like any other central bank, needs \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 to thoroughly analyse economic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 developments.\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 The two pillars of the ECB\u8217?s\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 monetary policy
strategy\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The ECB\u8217?s approach to organising, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 evaluating and cross-checking the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 information relevant for assessing the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 risks to price stability is based on two \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 analytical perspectives, referred to as \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 the two \u8220?pillars\u8221?. This approach was \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 confirmed and further clarified by the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Governing Council of the ECB in May \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 2003.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri70\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 In the ECB\u8217?s strategy, monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 policy decisions are based on a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 comprehensive analysis of the risks to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 price stability. This analysis is \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 organised on the basis of two \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 complementary perspectives on the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 determination of price developments. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 The first perspective is aimed at \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 assessing the short to medium-term \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 determinants of price developments,\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 with a focus on real activity and\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 financial conditions in
the economy. It \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 takes account of the fact that
price \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 developments over those horizons are \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 influenced largely by the interplay of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 supply and demand in the goods, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 services and factor markets. The ECB \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 refers to this as the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\u8220?economic\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 analysis\u8221?. The second perspective, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 referred to as the \u8220?monetary analysis\u8221?,
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 focuses on a longer-term horizon, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 exploiting the long-run link between \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 money and prices. The monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 analysis mainly serves as a means of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 cross-checking, from a medium to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 long-term perspective, the short to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 medium-term indications for monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 policy coming from the economic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 analysis.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb250\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 The two-pillar approach is designed to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 ensure that no relevant information is \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 lost in the assessment of the risks to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 price stability and that appropriate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex129 attention is paid to different \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 perspectives and the cross-checking of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 information in order to come to an \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 overall judgement on the risks to price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 stability. It represents, and conveys to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 the public, the notion of diversified \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 analysis and ensures robust decision-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 making based on different analytical \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 perspectives \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 (see Box \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 3.4 for a\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 discussion of alternative strategies).\par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb04\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Economic analysis\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb7\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The economic analysis focuses mainly \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100
on the assessment of current economic \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 and
financial developments and the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 implied short to
medium-term risks to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 price stability. The
economic and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 financial variables that are the
subject \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 of this analysis include:
developments \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 in overall output; aggregate demand
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 and its components; fiscal policy; \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 capital and labour market conditions; \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 a broad range of price and cost \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 indicators; developments in the
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ensure\par\pard\qj \li20\ri257\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 that
no relevant \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 information is \line \up0
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\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb16\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 Analysis of\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 short to\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri440\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 medium-term \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 risks to price \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
stability\u8230?
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3.4\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Alternative monetary policy strategies
\par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb196\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 A number of other monetary policy strategies are, or
have been, pursued by other central \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 banks. Several of
these were considered by the EMI and the ECB before the decision \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 was taken to adopt the stability-oriented two-pillar
strategy. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 One such strategy is monetary targeting. In practice, this
means that a central bank \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 changes official
interest rates in an attempt to either speed up or slow down monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 growth to a specific and pre-announced rate. This target
rate is derived so as to be \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 compatible with
price stability. Such a strategy rests on two premises. First, a stable \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 relationship between money and the price level (e.g.
in the form of a money demand \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 equation) should
exist over the medium term. If so, then a path consistent with price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 stability can be derived for the money stock. Second, the
money stock should be \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 controllable by monetary
policy also over relatively short periods of time. Taken \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 together, these conditions imply that the central bank can
use changes in official interest \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 rates to
successfully keep the money stock on its prescribed path and thereby - because
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 of the stability of the money-price relationship
- indirectly maintain price stability. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1618\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 While central bank experiences with this
approach influenced the design of the ECB\u8217?s \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 strategy, the ECB decided not to adopt monetary targeting.
This decision acknowledged \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 the existence of
information in macroeconomic variables other than money that is \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 important for monetary policy decisions aimed at price
stability. Furthermore, some \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 uncertainties about
the empirical properties of money in the euro area were created by \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 the institutional and behavioural changes associated with
the transition to Monetary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Union, and - more
generally - by the possibility that special factors might temporarily \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 distort monetary developments. It is therefore not
advisable to rely exclusively on \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 monetary
analysis. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb250\sl-251\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 Another strategy is direct inflation targeting. Rather than
using money to guide \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 monetary policy decisions,
this approach focuses on developments in inflation itself \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 relative to a published inflation target. Central banks
using this approach typically \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 communicate
monetary policy decisions in terms of a more or less mechanical reaction \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 to deviations in a forecast for a particular measure of
inflation from a specific inflation \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 target at a
particular horizon. The central bank\u8217?s forecast for inflation is therefore
placed \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 at the centre of policy analysis and
discussions, both within the central bank and in its \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 presentations to the public. \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1619\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 While there are
many similarities between the ECB\u8217?s strategy and strategies of other \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 central banks using inflation targeting, the ECB
decided not to pursue a direct inflation \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
targeting strategy in the sense discussed above for a number of reasons. First,
focusing \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 entirely on a forecast inflation figure
does not provide an encompassing and reliable \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
framework for identifying the nature of threats to price stability. The appropriate
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 monetary policy response generally depends on
the sources of these risks to price \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 stability.
As a minimum, it requires a deeper analysis of the underlying economic \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 situation and behaviour than is captured in an
inflation forecast alone. Second, various \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
aspects of the textbook inflation targeting approach - such as the fixed horizon
(e.g. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 two years) of the forecast from which
monetary policy decisions feed back - are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
somewhat arbitrary and in many circumstances do not appear to be optimal (e.g.
factors \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 56
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{\shp
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg58}
{\bkmkend Pg58}\par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-251\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\sb0\sl-
251\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1618\sb191\sl-251\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 that may affect inflation
beyond the chosen horizon, such as the presence of financial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 imbalances and asset price misalignments, may need to be
taken into account in current \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 monetary policy
decisions). Third, it is difficult to integrate the information contained \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 in monetary aggregates into inflation forecasts that
are based on conventional \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 macroeconomic models.
Finally, the ECB considers that relying on a single forecast \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 would be unwise, given the considerable uncertainty
relating to the structure of the euro \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 area
economy. It is considered preferable to adopt a diversified approach to the
analysis \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 of economic data based on a variety of
analytical methodologies. \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 A third strategy is exchange rate targeting, which was
pursued by several European \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 countries prior to
Monetary Union in the context of the exchange rate mechanism of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 the European Monetary System. For small, open economies
where the production and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 consumption of
internationally traded goods are a large part of the economy, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 developments in the exchange rate can have a significant
impact on the price level \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 through their effect
on the price of imports. An exchange rate targeting strategy was \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 not considered appropriate for the euro area, as it is a
large and relatively closed \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 economy where the
impact of exchange rate developments on the price level is more \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103
modest.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols4\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\
colsr160\colno3\colw3188\colsr110\colno4\colw1389\colsr160\ql \li640\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li640\sb118\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?
contributes\par\pard\qj \li663\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0\fi96 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 to revealing \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 the nature
of\par\pard\ql \li1109\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
shocks\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb94\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 exchange rate, the global economy and\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 the balance of payments;
financial \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 markets; and the balance sheet
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 positions of euro area sectors. All \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 these factors are helpful in assessing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 the dynamics of real activity and the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 likely development of prices from the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 perspective of the interplay between \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 supply and demand in the goods, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 services and factor markets at shorter \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 horizons.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri69\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 In this
analysis, due attention is paid \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 to the need to
identify the nature of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 shocks hitting the
economy, their \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 effects on cost and pricing
behaviour \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 and the short to medium-term \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 prospects for their propagation in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 the economy. To take appropriate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 decisions, the Governing Council \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 needs to have a comprehensive \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 understanding of the prevailing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 economic situation and must be aware \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 of the specific nature and magnitude \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 of any economic disturbances \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 threatening price stability. For \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 example, the appropriate monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 policy response to the inflationary\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb34\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 consequences of a temporary
rise in\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb7\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 the
international price of oil might \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 be different
from the appropriate \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 response to higher
consumer prices \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 resulting from wage increases
not in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 line with productivity growth. The
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 former results in a transient and short-\line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 lived increase in inflation which \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 quickly reverses. If this shock does not \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 lead to higher inflation expectations, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 it may pose less of a threat to price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 stability over the medium term. In the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 case of excessive wage increases, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 however, the danger exists that a self-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 sustaining spiral of higher costs, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 higher prices and higher wage \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 demands may be created. To avoid \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 such a spiral, a determined monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 policy reaction to reaffirm the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 central bank\u8217?s commitment to the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 maintenance of price stability, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 thereby helping to stabilise inflation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 expectations, may be the appropriate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 response.\par\pard\qj \li5103\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 Against
this background, the ECB \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 regularly reviews
developments in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 overall output, demand and
labour \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 57\par\pard\column \ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
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\expndtw0\charscalex100 indicators
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{\bkmkend Pg59}\par\pard\qj \li1757\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1757\sb0\sl-
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\par\pard\qj\li1757\ri2303\sb46\sl-260\slmult0\tx2466 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Box 3.5\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Statistics
relating to economic and financial developments \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 in the euro area \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb112\sl-
246\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 As explained
in Chapter 3, the chain of causes and effects linking monetary policy \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 decisions with the price level is complex and involves time
lags, which may be \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 significant. Therefore, a wide
range of indicators needs to be monitored in order to \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
assess the outlook for price stability. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb250\sl-
252\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 First, in terms of price and cost
developments, alongside the HICP and its components, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 price developments in the industrial sector, as measured by
producer prices, may play \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 an important role in
signalling future changes in consumer prices as changes in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 production costs feed through to consumer prices. Labour
costs, which are an important \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 element of overall
production costs, have a significant impact on price formation. Labour \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 cost statistics also provide information on the
competitiveness of the euro area economy. \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Second, indicators of output and demand
(national accounts, short-term statistics on \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 activity
in industry and services, orders, and qualitative survey data) provide
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 information on the cyclical position of the economy,
an important element in the ECB\u8217?s \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 analysis of
prospects for price developments. Furthermore, labour market data (on \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 employment, unemployment, vacancies and labour market
participation) are of crucial \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 importance in the
monitoring of conjunctural developments and in assessing structural \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 changes in the functioning of the euro area economy.
Moreover, the government sector \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 represents a
substantial part of economic activity; information on both financial and \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 non-financial public sector accounts is essential.
\par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1618\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
Third, balance of payments statistics, along with external trade statistics,
provide \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 important information on developments in
exports and imports which may affect \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
inflationary pressures via their impact on demand conditions. These data also allow
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 external trade prices - currently proxied by
export and import unit value indices - to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 be
monitored. These indices contribute to the assessment of, in particular, the
potential \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 impact on import prices of movements
in the exchange rate and changes in commodity \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
prices (such as oil). Although the euro area is a relatively closed economy
compared \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 with its individual member countries,
imported inflation does affect domestic producer \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
and consumer price developments. \par\pard\qj \li1757\sb0\sl-248\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1757\ri1619\sb4\sl-248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 As
regards financial developments, monetary financial institutions\u8217? (MFI)
balance sheet \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 statistics provide information
that can be used to derive euro area monetary aggregates \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 and their counterparts (see Box 2.3). They also provide the
basis for calculating the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 minimum reserves that
MFIs must hold with the euro area national central banks. In \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 addition, the ECB collects statistics on the interest rates
applied by MFIs to deposits \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 and loans.
Furthermore, data on financial accounts present financial transactions and \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 balance sheets for all economic sectors, such as
households and financial and non-\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 financial
corporations. These statistics show the different sectors\u8217? financial
investment \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 and financing activities, the
development of wealth and debt, and the financial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 interrelationships between the sectors. \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1619\sb243\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 In order to
obtain more detailed information on the development of financing conditions,
\line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 the ECB has developed a bank lending survey for
the euro area. This survey data
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 58
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg60}
{\bkmkend Pg60}\par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1618\sb194\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 complements existing
statistics on retail bank interest rates and credit by providing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 information on supply and demand conditions in the euro
area credit markets and on \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the lending policies
of euro area banks. Finally, the ECB publishes monthly statistics \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 on debt securities and quoted shares and quarterly
statistics on euro area investment \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 funds and the
financing and financial investments of insurance corporations and pension \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 funds in the euro area. It also publishes statistics
on price developments on financial \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 markets. All
these statistics are used intensively in order to systematically analyse \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 financial market structures and dynamics, including the
expectations of economic agents \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 relating to
future economic and financial developments. \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 High-quality statistics are vital for a
reliable picture of the economy. Policy mistakes \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
due to incomplete or unreliable statistics can be costly in terms of higher
inflation and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 higher volatility of economic
activity. The quality of statistics entails several aspects, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 with varying priority according to the type of statistics.
First, all industrial and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 institutional sectors
of the economy should be covered. In addition to the conventional \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 statistics on industry and trade, indicators for the
increasingly important services sector \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 are
needed. Second, a harmonisation of concepts and methods is essential to ensure that
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 any euro area indicator compiled from national
series provides reliable information for \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
monetary policy decisions. Third, timeliness and a sufficiently high frequency of
data \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 are essential for the conduct of a forward-
looking monetary policy. Fourth, sufficient \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
backdata are essential for econometric analyses which contribute to the
understanding \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 of the euro area economy.
\par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1617\sb2\sl-
249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 The provision of statistics for the euro
area is continuously being developed and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
improved. Common methodological standards have been defined for many areas of
euro \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 area statistics. In this regard, a number
of initiatives have been taken. New euro area \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
indicators have been developed in several statistical domains in recent years, and
better \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 timeliness and increased comparability
have been achieved. For example, the Action \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Plan
on EMU Statistical Requirements of September 2000 established by the European \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Commission \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 (Eurostat) in
close cooperation with the ECB detailed priority \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 improvements in economic statistics. This has been
augmented by the establishment \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 of a list of the
euro area indicators that are considered essential for short-term economic \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 analysis. Entitled \u8220?The Principal European
Economic Indicators\u8221? (PEEIs), this list also \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 sets out demanding timeliness targets for the publication
of euro area aggregates, to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 be achieved by
2005.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4943\colsr160\colno2\colw4677\co
lsr160\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb104\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 market conditions, a broad range of\par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 price and cost
indicators, and fiscal \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 policy, as well as
the balance of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 payments for the euro area.
Among \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 other things, these indicators help
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 to assess movements in aggregate \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 demand, aggregate supply and the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 degree of capacity utilisation. Box 3.5 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 reviews some of the indicators of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 economic developments analysed by \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 the ECB and highlights the importance\par\pard\column
\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb104\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 of the availability of
high-quality\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
statistics.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb04\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 Developments in financial
market\tab \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Analysis
of\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb2\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 financial
market\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 indicators and asset prices are also\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 developments\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 closely monitored, not
least because\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 they can affect price developments \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 (see Section \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 3.2). Asset
prices and\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
financial yields can also be analysed \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 to derive
information about the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 expectations of the
financial markets, \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 59
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\li625\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 exchange rate \line
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 developments\par\pard\column \ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
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218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 including expected future price\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 developments. For
example, when \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 buying and selling bonds,
financial \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 market participants implicitly
reveal \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 their expectations about future
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 developments in real interest rates \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 and inflation. Using a variety of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 techniques, a central bank can analyse \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 financial prices to extract the markets\u8217? \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 implicit expectations about future \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 developments.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 Asset markets, and thus also asset
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 prices, are by their very nature \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 forward-looking. Changes in asset \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 prices therefore largely reflect \u8220?news\u8221?
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 - information about developments \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 that the asset markets had not \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 been expecting. In this sense, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 monitoring of asset prices might help \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 to identify shocks that are currently \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 hitting the economy, including shocks \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 to expectations about future economic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 developments. In analysing financial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 markets, statistical information on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 financial asset prices from various \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 sources is assessed. On top of this, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 ECB collects certain statistical \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 information itself (see Box 3.5).\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri72\sb190\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Developments in the
exchange rate are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex122 also closely assessed for
their \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 implications for price stability. As \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 already discussed in Section \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 3.2,\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb1\sl-249\slmult0\tx1448
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 exchange rate movements have a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 direct effect on price developments \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 through their impact on import prices. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Changes in the exchange rate may also \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 alter the price-competitiveness of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 domestically produced goods on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 international \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 markets,
thereby\par\pard\qj \li20\ri70\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
influencing demand conditions and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 potentially the
outlook for prices. If \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 such exchange rate effects
alter the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 expectations and behaviour of wage \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 and price-setters, the potential for \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 second-round effects stemming from \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 the exchange rate may exist.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
60\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The
ECB\u8217?s economic analysis has\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 been significantly extended and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 enriched over time. This is largely due \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 to the progress made in the production \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 of euro area real economy and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 financial statistics and in the analytical \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 processing of such information. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 Furthermore, a number of analytical \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 and empirical models have been \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 developed to better assess and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex128 understand past and ongoing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 developments, to make more reliable \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 short-term forecasts and to underpin \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 the regular macroeconomic projection \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 exercises for the euro area economy. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 By monitoring incoming data and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 using all the available analytical tools, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 a comprehensive assessment of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 economic situation and the outlook for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 the euro area can be conducted and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 updated continuously.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 In this context, the Eurosystem\u8217?s
staff \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 macroeconomic projection exercises
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 play an important role in the economic \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 analysis. The projections, which are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 produced under the responsibility of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 the staff, help to structure and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 synthesise a large amount of economic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 data and ensure consistency across \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 different sources of economic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 evidence. In this respect, they are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 a key element in sharpening the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 assessment of economic prospects and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 the short to medium-term fluctuations \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 of inflation around its trend.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 The word \u8220?
projection\u8221? is used in order \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 to underline
that the published \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 projections are the results
of a scenario \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 based on a set of underlying
technical \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 assumptions, including the
assumption \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 of unchanged short-term interest
rates. \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 This is the way projections are produced
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 in many central banks in order to best \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 inform monetary policy decision-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 makers about what could happen if \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 policy rates remained unchanged.\par\pard\column \ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb51\sl-172\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The
economic\par\pard\qj \li20\ri411\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
analysis has \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 been enriched \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 over time\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb142\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Euro area\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri328\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 macroeconomic \line
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 projections\u8230?\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri602\sb154\sl-180\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \u8230?based on \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
technical\par\pard\ql \li20\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
assumptions,\u8230?
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lsr160\colno3\colw4677\colsr160\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li647\sb36\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?models and\par\pard\ql \li950\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 technical\par\pard\ql \li754\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 expertise of\par\pard\ql \li1245\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 staff\par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li715\sb6\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Nevertheless\par\pard\ql \li463\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 projections have\par\pard\ql
\li1207\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 some\par\pard\ql
\li682\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
limitations\u8230?\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 In view of this, it should be clear
that\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the
projection will not, in general, be \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 the best
predictor of future outcomes, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 in particular at
somewhat longer \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 horizons. In fact, it
represents a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 scenario that is unlikely to
materialise \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 in practice, since monetary policy
will \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 always act to address any threats
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 to price stability. Therefore, the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 macroeconomic projections of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 inflation by Eurosystem staff should \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 not, under any circumstances, be seen \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 as questioning the commitment of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 Governing Council to maintaining \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 price stability over the medium term. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 Wage and price-setters \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 (i.e.
the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
government, firms and households) \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 should rely on
the ECB\u8217?s quantitative \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 definition of
price stability and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 especially the aim to keep
inflation \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 below, but close to \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 2% as the best\par\pard\qj \li20\ri70\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 prediction of medium and long-term \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 price developments.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-
249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 projections
are produced using a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 number of tools and
inputs. Several \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 different macroeconometric
models \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 are available for the euro area as
well \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 as for individual member countries. In
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 a situation of model uncertainty, it is \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 preferable to employ a variety of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 them, embodying various views of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 economic structure and estimated \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 using different methodologies, rather \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 than relying on a unique and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 all-encompassing framework. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 projections produced by these models \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 are adjusted in light of the technical \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 expertise of staff experts both at the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 ECB and at the NCBs.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 Although
they play a useful role, the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 staff macroeconomic
projections have \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 their limitations. First,
the final \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 projection depends to a
considerable \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 extent on the underlying conceptual
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex122 framework and the
techniques\par\pard\column \ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 employed. Any such
framework is\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 bound to be a simplification of reality \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 and may on occasions neglect the key \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 issues that are relevant for monetary\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 policy.\par\pard\qj
\li5103\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 Second, economic projections can \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 only provide a summary description of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex122 the economy and thus do not\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 incorporate all
relevant information. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 In particular, important
information, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 such as that contained in
monetary\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
aggregates, is not easily integrated \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 into the
framework used to produce the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 projections, or
information may\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 change after the projections are \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 finalised.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb250\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 Third, expert views are inevitably \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 incorporated into projections, and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 there can be good reasons not to agree\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex124 with particular
views. Fourth, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 projections are always based
on \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 specific assumptions - such as
those\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
concerning oil prices or exchange \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 rates \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 - with which it is possible to\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 disagree or which can
change rapidly, \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 making the projections
outdated.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 A further consideration relates to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 the fact that the degree to which \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 forecasts prove reliable tends to\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 fall significantly
as the length of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the forecasting horizon
increases. On
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 some occasions, notably in the face
of\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb1\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
uncertainty about the sustainability of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 asset
price movements, it may be \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 advisable for a
central bank to set\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 interest rates in response to such \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 developments that might otherwise \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 impact on price stability at horizons\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 extending well beyond
conventional \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 forecasting horizons.\par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 Finally, with a view to the\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?which
points\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb2\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 to the
need to\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 assumptions usually underlying the\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 use various\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
138\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
models used for forecasts, a central\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 sources and\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
171\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 bank
is well advised to evaluate and\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 techniques
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 61
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Pg63}\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1590\colsr110\colno2\colw3252\co
lsr160\colno3\colw4678\colsr160\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li483\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1036\sb3\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Overall,\par\pard\qj \li483\ri0\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0\tx617\tx560\tx642 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 projections play
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 an important, \line \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 but not an all-\line \tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
encompassing\par\pard\ql \li1284\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
role\par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li525\sb147\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
Money provides\par\pard\ql \li891\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 a
nominal\par\pard\ql \li1095\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
anchor\par\pard\column \ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 compare the
robustness of the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 information stemming from various \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 sources. To fully assess the economic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 situation and the outlook for price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 stability, the Governing Council must \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 receive input based on a variety of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 techniques and policy simulations \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 based on various models, and must use \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 its own judgement, particularly with \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 regard to the likelihood that certain \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 hypothetical scenarios will eventually \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 materialise. An articulated and broadly \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 based analysis of the economic forces \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 at work in the economy must therefore \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 always accompany the use of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 projections.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb250\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex125 For all these reasons, staff \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 macroeconomic projections play an \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 important but not all-encompassing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 role in the ECB\u8217?s monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 strategy. The Governing Council \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 evaluates them together with many \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 other pieces of information and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 forms of analysis organised within the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 two-pillar framework. These include \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 monetary analysis and analyses of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 financial prices, individual indicators \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 and the forecasts of other institutions. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 The Governing Council neither \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 assumes responsibility for the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 projections nor does it use the staff \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 projections as its only tool for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 organising and communicating its \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 assessment.\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Monetary analysis\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The ECB
singles out money from \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 within the set of
selected key \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 indicators that it monitors and
studies \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 closely. This decision was made in \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 recognition of the fact that monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 growth and inflation are closely \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 related in the medium to long run (Box \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 3.6 summarises the results of some \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 studies on this issue). This widely \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 accepted relationship provides \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 monetary policy with a firm and
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
62\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 reliable
nominal anchor beyond the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 horizons conventionally adopted to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 construct inflation forecasts. Thus, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 assigning money a prominent role in\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 the strategy is also a
tool to underpin \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 its medium-term orientation.
Indeed, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 taking policy decisions and
evaluating\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
their consequences not only on the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 basis of the
short-term indications \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 stemming from the
analysis of\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 economic and financial conditions but \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 also on the basis of money and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 liquidity considerations, allows a\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 central bank to see
beyond the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 transient impact of the various
shocks \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 and avoids the temptation of taking
an\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 overly
activist course.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb64\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 In order to signal its commitment
to\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The
reference\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb1\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
value for\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 monetary analysis and to provide a\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 monetary\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
139\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
benchmark for the assessment of\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 growth\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 monetary developments,
the ECB \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 announced a reference value for the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 broad monetary aggregate M3. This\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 reference value refers
to the rate of M3 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex127 growth that is deemed to
be \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 compatible with price stability
over\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1499\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 the
medium term. (Box 3.7 explains \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 how the reference
value is derived.)\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb174\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex125 The reference value therefore \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 represents a \u8220?natural\u8221? benchmark for \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 analysing the information content of\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 monetary developments
in the euro \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 area. It constantly reminds the
central \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 bank of the fundamental
principle\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb1\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
that, while responding to economic \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 developments,
it must never lose sight \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 of the fact that,
over sufficiently\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 extended horizons, the rate of money \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 growth must be consistent with the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 price stability objective. Owing to the\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1496\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 medium to long-term
nature of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 monetary perspective, however,
there \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 is no direct link between short-
term\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
monetary developments and monetary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 policy
decisions. Monetary policy \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 does not therefore
react mechanically
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{\shp
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg64}
{\bkmkend Pg64}\par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-
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218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Box
3.6\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Money and prices in the long run \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1618\sb196\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 The medium to long-term link between money and
inflation in the euro area has been \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 the subject
of a number of studies (see bibliography). These studies approach the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 question from different angles and make use of different
empirical techniques. \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb248\sl-253\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 A first strand of studies has focused on the relationship
between money and inflation \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 at various frequencies.
Using various statistical methodologies and filtering techniques, \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 it is generally found that long-term movements in money
show a very close relationship \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 with longer-term trends
in prices. \par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1618\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 A second
strand of literature has concentrated on the question of whether money can \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 help to predict prices (i.e. whether money has leading
indicator properties). Making \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 use of a variety
of forecasting techniques, there seems to be compelling evidence that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 the growth of broad monetary aggregates helps to predict
inflation, notably at horizons \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 exceeding two
years. Moreover, various monetary indicators can indirectly offer \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 information about risks to price stability through their
impact on economic variables \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 other than prices,
which in due course can influence price formation. For example, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 narrow monetary aggregates have leading indicator
properties for demand conditions \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 and thus
cyclical developments. Moreover, growth rates of money and credit in excess
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 of those sufficient to sustain economic growth
at a non-inflationary pace may, under \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 certain
conditions, signal the emergence of financial imbalances or speculative asset \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 price bubbles. Such information may indicate, at an
early stage, the build-up of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 destabilising
forces with adverse implications for activity and, in the medium term, \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 prices. \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1617\sb250\sl-
251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Finally, a third strand of studies has
sought to explain the behaviour of money by linking \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 it to a number of fundamental economic variables such as
real GDP (as a measure of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 transactions) as well
as various interest rates (as measures of the opportunity cost of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 holding money). While this kind of model can generally be
used to quantify the sign \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 and magnitude of the
impact of the aforementioned determinants on money holdings, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 they often also make it possible to distinguish between
dynamic forces and longer-term \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 equilibria. They
are, therefore, particularly well suited to investigating the nature and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 impact of shocks on money holdings. \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1618\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 Taken together,
the generally favourable results of this variety of studies can be \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 interpreted as a confirmation of the existence of a stable
relationship between nominal \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 money balances and prices
in the euro area in the medium to long
term.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4943\colsr160\colno2\colw4677\co
lsr160\ql \li563\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li563\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb94\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 to deviations of M3 growth from the\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 reference
value.\par\pard\ql \li563\sb0\sl-184\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li563\sb130\sl-
184\slmult0\tx1697 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The
analysis of\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 One
reason for this is that, at times,\par\pard\ql \li587\sb1\sl-179\slmult0\tx1697
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 special factors\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 monetary developments
may also be\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb106\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
influenced by \u8220?special\u8221? factors caused\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 by institutional changes such
as\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
modifications to the tax treatment of\par\pard\column \ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb34\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 interest income or capital gains.
These\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118
special factors can bring about \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 changes in
money holdings since \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 individuals and firms
will respond to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 changes in the attractiveness of
bank \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 deposits included in the definition of
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 money relative to alternative financial \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 instruments. However, monetary
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 63
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg65}
{\bkmkend Pg65}\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb186\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Box
3.7\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 The ECB\u8217?s reference value for monetary
growth \par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb136\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 The prominent role for money
in the ECB\u8217?s strategy is signalled by the announcement \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 of a reference value for the growth of the broad monetary
aggregate M3. The choice \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 of M3 is based on the
evidence, supported by several empirical studies, that this \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 aggregate possesses all the desired properties: in
particular, it has a stable money \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 demand
relationship and leading indicator properties for future price developments in
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 the euro area. The reference value for the
growth of M3 has been derived so as to be \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
consistent with the achievement of price stability. Substantial or prolonged
deviations \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 of monetary growth from the reference
value would, under normal circumstances, signal \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
risks to price stability over the medium term. \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1619\sb250\sl-251\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 The derivation
of the reference value is based on the relationship between (changes in) \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 monetary growth (\u8710?M), inflation (\u8710?P), real GDP
growth (\u8710?YR) and velocity (\u8710?V). \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
According to this identity, which is widely known as the \u8220?quantity
equation\u8221?, the change \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 in money in an
economy equals the change in nominal transactions (approximated by \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 the change in real GDP plus the change in inflation) minus
the change in velocity. The \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 latter variable can
be defined as the speed with which money is transferred between \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 different money holders and thus determines how much money
is required to service \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 a particular level of
nominal transactions. \par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-195\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1757\sb101\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \u8710?M =
\u8710?YR + \u8710?P - \u8710?V \par\pard\qj \li1757\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1757\ri1619\sb10\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 The
derivation of the reference value is based on the definition of price stability as
an \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 increase in the HICP for the euro area of
below 2% per annum. Furthermore, it is based \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 on
medium-term assumptions regarding potential output growth and the trend in the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 velocity of circulation of M3. In 1998, an
assumption of 2-2\ul0\super\cf49\f50\fs14\ul0\super\cf49\f50\fs13
1\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 \u8260?\ul0\nosupersub\cf49\f50\fs8
2\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 % per annum was made \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 for the medium-term trend in real potential GDP growth for
the euro area, reflecting \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 estimates from both
international organisations and the ECB. Various approaches were \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 employed to derive the assumption for velocity of
circulation, taking into account simple \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
(univariate) trends as well as information available from more complex money demand
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 models. Taken together, the results of these
approaches pointed to a decline of M3 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 velocity
in the range of \ul0\super\cf49\f50\fs14\ul0\super\cf49\f50\fs13
1\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 \u8260?\ul0\nosupersub\cf49\f50\fs8
2\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 -1% per annum. On the basis of these assumptions,
the ECB\u8217?s \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 reference value was set at
4\ul0\super\cf49\f50\fs14\ul0\super\cf49\f50\fs13 1\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17
\u8260?\ul0\nosupersub\cf49\f50\fs8 2\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 % per annum by
the Governing Council in December 1998. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
Furthermore, the Governing Council decided to analyse developments in relation to
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 reference value on the basis of a three-
month moving average of 12-month growth rates \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 of
broad money. This approach is intended to smooth out monthly fluctuations, which
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 can be rather volatile. \par\pard\ql
\li1757\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb101\sl-195\slmult0\tx3179 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Over the period \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 1999-
2002, the Governing Council reviewed the assumptions \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1619\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 about the medium-
term trends in potential output growth and the income velocity \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 of M3 underlying the derivation of the reference value for
M3 at the end of each \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 year. Since no new
decisive evidence emerged that would have led to a significant \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 change in the underlying assumptions, the reference value
was kept constant during \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 that period. In May
2003 the Governing Council decided to no longer review the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 reference value for M3 on an annual basis because
experience has shown that the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 underlying medium-
term trend assumptions cannot be expected to change frequently.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 64
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg66}
{\bkmkend Pg66}\par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-253\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\sb0\sl-
253\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1618\sb185\sl-253\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 At the same time, the
Governing Council made clear that it would continue to monitor \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 the validity of the conditions and assumptions underlying
the reference value and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 communicate any changes
to the underlying assumptions as soon as they become \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103
necessary.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4943\colsr160\colno2\colw46
77\colsr160\ql \li455\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb61\sl-
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caused by these special\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 factors may not be very informative\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 about the outlook for
price stability.\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 Consequently, monetary analysis at the\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 ECB tries to focus on
underlying\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116
monetary trends by including a\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 detailed assessment of special factors\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 and other shocks
influencing money\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 demand.\par\pard\ql \li455\sb0\sl-184\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li455\sb129\sl-184\slmult0\tx1697 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 A comprehensive\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 As noted above, the analysis of\par\pard\ql
\li638\sb1\sl-179\slmult0\tx1697 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 assessment of\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 monetary developments extends\par\pard\ql
\li702\sb50\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 liquidity and\par\pard\ql \li1157\sb11\sl-
180\slmult0\tx1697 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 credit\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 beyond the assessment of M3
growth\par\pard\ql \li865\sb1\sl-179\slmult0\tx1697 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 conditions\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 in relation to its reference value. In\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb67\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 this respect, the
framework for\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
monetary analysis builds on the ECB\u8217?s\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 expertise in the institutional features\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 of the financial and
monetary sector.\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 In its regular monitoring of the\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 monetary conditions in the
euro area,\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 the
ECB also draws on a range of\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 small-scale money demand and\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 monetary indicator models
that have\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 been
developed and published by ECB\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 staff and academics.\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb64\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex123 The monetary
analysis uses a\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 comprehensive assessment of the\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx2756\tx3825 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114
liquidity\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 situation\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 based on\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 information about the balance sheet\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 context of M3 growth
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 (i.e. the\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 counterparts of M3 in the consolidated\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 balance sheet of the MFI
sector, in\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
particular loans to the private sector)\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 as well as the composition of M3\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 growth (i.e. the
components). Such a\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 detailed analysis of the counterparts\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 and the structure of M3
growth is\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
helpful for extracting the signal being\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 sent by monetary developments that is\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 relevant for identifying
the longer-run\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
trend in inflation. In this context, the\par\pard\column \ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb61\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
most liquid components of M3 - most\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 notably M1 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 - receive
particular\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
attention as they more closely reflect \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 the
transaction motives for holding \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 money, and may
thus be most tightly\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 related to aggregate spending.\par\pard\qj \li5103\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 At the same time, gaining a thorough \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 understanding of the interdependencies \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 between M3 and its counterparts is\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 instrumental in
judging whether \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 observed changes in money growth
are \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 the result of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 \u8220?
portfolio shifts\u8221? and\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 whether or not those have implications \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 for price trends.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 Finally, growth rates of money and
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 credit in excess of those needed to \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 sustain economic growth at a non-\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx1693\tx2700 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
inflationary pace may, under certain \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
circumstances, \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 provide \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 early\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 information \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex122 - in addition to
more\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
standard indicators - on developing \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 financial
instability. Such information \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 is of relevance
for monetary policy\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 because the emergence of financial \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex108 could have a de-stabilising effect on\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 activity and,
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\li20\ri1609\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Cross-checking information from the \up0 \expndtw-
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\expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Regarding the Governing
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\expndtw0\charscalex118 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 monetary policy, the two-
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a28a0028a28a0028a28a00fffd9}}}}}\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg67}{\bkmkend
Pg67}\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb106\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-6\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf50\f51\fs19 Chart 3.2
\ul0\nosupersub\cf51\f52\fs19 The stability-oriented monetary policy strategy of
the ECB \par\pard\ql \li3462\sb0\sl-149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3462\sb0\sl-
149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3462\sb0\sl-149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li3462\sb112\sl-
149\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf41\f42\fs13 PRIMARY
OBJECTIVE OF PRICE STABILITY \par\pard\ql \li4462\sb0\sl-149\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li4462\sb0\sl-149\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li4462\sb0\sl-149\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li4462\sb24\sl-149\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Governing
Council \par\pard\ql \li3152\ri2914\sb2\sl-160\slmult0\tx4191 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf42\f43\fs13 takes monetary policy
decisions based on an overall assessment \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 of
the risks to price stability \par\pard\li2154\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li2154\sb44\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7001 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf38\f39\fs13 ECONOMIC\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 MONETARY\par\pard\li2154\sb0\sl-160\slmult0\fi0\tx7090 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 ANALYSIS\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
ANALYSIS\par\pard\li2402\sb0\sl-149\slmult0\par\pard\li2402\sb0\sl-
149\slmult0\par\pard\li2402\sb0\sl-149\slmult0\par\pard\li2402\sb2\sl-
149\slmult0\fi411\tx4514\tx6612 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf41\f42\fs13 Analysis\tab \dn2 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf43\f44\fs13 cross-checking\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf41\f42\fs13 Analysis\par\pard\li2402\sb2\sl-
160\slmult0\fi0\tx6306 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf42\f43\fs13
of economic dynamics\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 of monetary
trends\par\pard\li2402\sb0\sl-160\slmult0\fi337 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 and
shocks\par\pard\li2402\sb0\sl-149\slmult0\par\pard\li2402\sb0\sl-
149\slmult0\par\pard\li2402\sb0\sl-149\slmult0\par\pard\li2402\sb0\sl-
149\slmult0\par\pard\li2402\sb0\sl-149\slmult0\par\pard\li2402\sb49\sl-
149\slmult0\fi1570 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf43\f44\fs13 FULL
SET OF
INFORMATION\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1590\colsr110\colno2\colw3
252\colsr160\colno3\colw4678\colsr160\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li646\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li646\sb127\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Independence\par\pard\ql
\li1302\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 and\par\pard\ql
\li606\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
accountability\par\pard\column \ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb65\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 monetary policy does not overlook\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri72\sb7\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 important information
relevant for \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 assessing future price trends.
All \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 complementarities between the two \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 pillars are exploited, as this is the best \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 way to ensure that all the relevant \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 information for assessing price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 prospects is used in a consistent and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 efficient manner, facilitating both the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 decision-making process and its \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 communication (see Chart 3.2). This \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 approach reduces the risk of policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 error caused by the over-reliance on a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 single indicator, forecast or model. By \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 taking a diversified approach to the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 interpretation of economic conditions, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 the ECB\u8217?s strategy aims at adopting a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 robust monetary policy in an uncertain \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 environment.\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri381\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-8\charscalex95
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 3.6 ACCOUNTABILITY, TRANSPARENCY \up0 \expndtw-
5\charscalex100 AND COMMUNICATION\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Central bank independence,\par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 accountability and
transparency\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 As explained in Chapter 1, there are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 good reasons to entrust the task of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 maintaining price stability to an
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
66\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb65\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 independent
central bank, which is not\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0\tx558\tx1673\tx2167 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
subject to potential political pressure. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 At
the same time, in democratic \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 societies,
central bank independence \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex127 needs to be
balanced with \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 accountability to the public and
its \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 elected representatives. Accountability
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 can be understood as the legal and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 political obligation of an independent \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 central bank to properly explain and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 justify its decisions to the citizens and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 their elected representatives, thereby \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 holding the central bank responsible \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 for \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 fulfilling \tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 its \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
objectives.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb1\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 Accountability is a fundamental \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 element of democratic legitimacy. A \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 clearly defined mandate is the basis \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 for the democratic legitimacy of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 delegating monetary policy to an \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 independent central bank, and an \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 overriding focus on the mandate of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 price stability enables the public to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 hold an independent central bank more \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 easily accountable. In this sense, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 accountability imposes discipline on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 the central bank to perform its tasks as \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 well as possible.
\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg68}
{\bkmkend
Pg68}\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols4\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\co
lsr160\colno3\colw3188\colsr110\colno4\colw1389\colsr160\ql \li565\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li565\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li565\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li565\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li856\sb54\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The ECB
is\par\pard\qj \li565\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0\tx665 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
accountable to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the citizens of \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 the European\par\pard\ql \li1166\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Union\par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li618\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li915\sb77\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 The ECB\u8217?s\par\pard\ql \li618\ri0\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0\tx665\tx826 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 relations with \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the European \line \tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
Parliament\par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li684\sb126\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
Transparency\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The appropriate channels for ensuring\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri70\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 the accountability of a
central bank \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 depend on the institutional
framework \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 and on the bank\u8217?s mandate. As a
body \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 established by virtue of the Treaty, and
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 acting within the limits of the powers \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 conferred upon it, the ECB has the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 statutory task of maintaining price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 stability and of performing other \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 central banking functions for the euro \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 area as a whole. Therefore, the ECB is \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 accountable first and foremost to the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 citizens of the European Union, from \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 whom the Treaty\u8217?s legitimacy derives, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 - more formally \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex131 - to the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 European Parliament, which is the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 only European institution directly \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 elected by EU citizens.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri70\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 The ECB\u8217?s relationship with
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 European Parliament in this regard is
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 defined by the Treaty and fully \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 respects the Eurosystem\u8217?s independent \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 status. The Treaty contains a number \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 of reporting requirements for the ECB \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 (e.g. the presentation of an Annual \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Report to the European Parliament, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 Commission and the EU Council) and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 establishes regular presentations to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 the European Parliament to ensure \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 accountability (see Chapter 1).\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-
249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
A concept closely related to yet \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 distinct
from accountability is that \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex127 of central bank
transparency. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 Transparency can be defined as
an \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 environment in which the central bank
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 provides the general public and the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 markets with all relevant information \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 on its strategy, assessments and policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 decisions as well as its procedures, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 and does so in an open, clear and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 timely manner. Today, most central \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 banks, including the ECB, consider \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 transparency a crucial component of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 their monetary policy framework, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 emphasising the importance of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 effective communication and proper\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 interaction with the public. Ultimately,\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 all efforts to enhance
transparency are \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 aimed at ensuring that
monetary \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 policy is better understood by the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 public and therefore becomes more \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 credible and effective.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 In this respect, first and foremost
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 transparency requires the central \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 bank to clearly explain how it \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 interprets its mandate and to be \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 forthcoming about its policy goals. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 This helps the public to monitor \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 and evaluate the central bank\u8217?s \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 performance. In addition, the central \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 bank needs to explain the analytical \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 framework used for its internal \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 decision-making and its assessment of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 the state of the economy, and to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 frequently make clear the economic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex122 rationale underlying its policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 decisions.
In this respect, transparency \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 can be enhanced
by providing a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 systematic framework for both
internal \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex122 decision-making and external
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 communication with the public, in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 particular by means of a publicly \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 announced monetary policy strategy.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 The bank\u8217?s
overriding concern with \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 regard to transparency
must be the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 effectiveness of monetary policy
in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 meeting its statutory objectives. \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 Transparency can render monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 policy more effective for several \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 reasons.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb190\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 First, being clear about its mandate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 and how it goes about fulfilling it \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex122 helps a central bank to foster \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 credibility. When a central bank is \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 perceived as being able and willing to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 achieve its policy mandate, price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 expectations are well anchored. In this \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 respect, frequent communication \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 about the central bank\u8217?s assessment of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 the economic situation is particularly \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 useful. Furthermore, it is helpful for
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
67\par\pard\column \ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li22\sb82\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 What makes a\par\pard\qj \li22\ri500\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 central bank \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 transparent?\par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\ri250\sb106\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Transparency
\line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 makes monetary \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
policy more\par\pard\ql \li20\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
effective as it\u8230?\par\pard\ql \li8397\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8397\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8397\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8397\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8397\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8397\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8397\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li26\sb82\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \u8230?
fosters\par\pard\ql \li26\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
credibility,\u8230?
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218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 central
banks to be open and realistic\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 about what monetary policy can do \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 and, even more importantly, what it \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 cannot do (see Section 3.1).\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri72\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 Second, a strong
commitment to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 transparency imposes self-
discipline \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 on policy-makers, and this then helps
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 to ensure that their policy decisions \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 and explanations are consistent over \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 time. Facilitating public scrutiny of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 monetary policy actions enhances the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 incentives for the decision-making \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 bodies to fulfil their mandates in an \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 appropriate manner.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb190\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 Third, by publicly announcing its
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex126 monetary policy strategy and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 communicating its regular assessment \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 of economic developments, the central \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 bank provides guidance to the markets \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 so that expectations can be formed \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 more efficiently and accurately. This \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 helps the markets to understand \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 the systematic response pattern \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 of monetary policy to economic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 developments and shocks and thus to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 anticipate the broad direction of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 monetary policy over the medium \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 term, making policy moves more \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 predictable.\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Such
predictability is important for the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 conduct of
monetary policy: while \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 central banks only
directly control \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 very short-term interest
rates, the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 expected path of these rates
over \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 longer horizons and the premia for \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 uncertainty are also significant for the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 transmission of monetary policy to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 the economy. If agents can broadly \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 anticipate policy responses, this \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 allows a rapid incorporation of any \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 (expected) changes in monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 into financial variables. This in turn \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 can shorten the process by which \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 monetary policy is transmitted into \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 investment and consumption decisions
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
68\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and
accelerate any necessary economic\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 adjustments, thus potentially enhancing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 the effectiveness of monetary policy.\par\pard\ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 The communication role of
a\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 monetary
policy strategy\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3327 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex127 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 In order to promote a
better\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Presentation
of\par\pard\ql \li3322\sb4\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 monetary
policy\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 understanding of monetary policy, the\par\pard\ql
\li3322\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 to the public\u8230?\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 main
aspects of the process of\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 monetary policy-making should be \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 made understandable for the general \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 public. In practice, however, it is\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 difficult to provide
the public with a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 completely exhaustive and
intelligible \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 communication of all the
detailed\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
elements and aspects of the internal \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 monetary
policy-making process while \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 at the same time
ensuring that this\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-171\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 information is properly understood.\par\pard\ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb47\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 Therefore, in presenting monetary\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?needs
to\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb2\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 take
into\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 policy to the public, various choices\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 account the\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
138\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 have
to be made. Transparency\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 complexity of\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
171\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 means
more than simply releasing\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 policy-making\u8230?\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb3\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
information. It also requires structuring \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 that
information in such a way that it \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 can be understood by
the public.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 However, efforts to convey a
clear\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?and
be\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb1\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 consistent
with\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 message should not detract from the\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 internal\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
139\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 need
to explain the actual nature of\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 decision-making\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 policy-
making. Any communication \line \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 must reflect the
fact that monetary policy \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 has to operate in a
complex, uncertain\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 and constantly evolving environment. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 The external communication of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 ECB\u8217?s monetary policy strategy places\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 a premium on
faithfully reflecting this \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 environment. The
external presentation \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 of the ECB\u8217?s
strategy may be relatively\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1499\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 complex compared with some other \line \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 strategies (such as monetary targeting or \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 inflation targeting, see Box 3.2), but it\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 nevertheless
realistically reflects the \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 diversified
approach to monetary policy \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 that the ECB has
adopted for its internal\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-171\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 decision-making.
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\par\pard\ql \li1715\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1715\sb51\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Effective communication
also requires\par\pard\qj \li1715\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 the central bank to address a variety \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 of audiences and to use a variety \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 of channels. To this end, in its \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 communication activities, the ECB has\par\pard\column
\ql \li5117\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5117\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5117\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 gone beyond the formal Treaty\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1483\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 requirements in
adopting additional \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 means of ensuring accountability
and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 transparency (see Box 3.8).
\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \ql \li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb48\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Box
3.8\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Key communication channels used by the ECB
\par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb36\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 The monthly press conferences held by the President
and the Vice-President immediately \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 after the
first Governing Council meeting of the month and the Monthly Bulletin are \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 two of the most important communication channels used
by the ECB. The President\u8217?s \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 introductory
statement at the press conference provides a timely and comprehensive \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 summary of the policy-relevant assessment of economic
developments. It is structured \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 along the lines
of the ECB\u8217?s monetary policy strategy and its text is agreed by the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 Governing Council. The monthly press conference
includes a question and answer \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 session, which is
attended by various media representatives from across the euro area \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 and beyond, and provides a platform for a timely and even-
handed explanation of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 monetary policy decisions
to the public. Transcripts of the press conference are made \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 available on the ECB\u8217?s website only a few hours
later. The press conference is therefore \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 an
effective means of presenting and explaining in a very timely manner the
discussions \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 in the Governing Council and thus
the monetary policy decision-making process. \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1617\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 The Monthly Bulletin provides the general
public and the financial markets with a \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 detailed and
comprehensive analysis of the economic environment. It is usually \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 published one week after the meeting of the Governing
Council and contains the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 information that the
Governing Council possessed when it took its policy decisions. \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 The Monthly Bulletin also contains articles which provide
insights into long-term \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 developments, general topics
or the analytical tools used by the Eurosystem within the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 framework of the monetary policy strategy. \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1617\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 In addition, the
President of the ECB appears four times a year before the European \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Parliament\u8217?s Committee on Economic and Monetary
Affairs. The President explains \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the ECB\u8217?s
policy decisions and then answers questions posed by Committee members. \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 The Committee meetings are open to the public and the
transcripts of the President\u8217?s \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 testimonies
are published on the websites of both the European Parliament and the ECB \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 after the testimony. Other members of the Executive
Board of the ECB also appear \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 before the
Committee. \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb250\sl-251\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 The members of the Governing Council take on a large number
of public engagements. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Speeches by the President
and other members of the Executive Board and Governing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 Council are important tools for explaining the views of the
ECB to the public. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 Another major channel for
reaching international as well as local target groups are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 interviews granted by Governing Council members. The ECB
also receives a large \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 number of visits from
members of the general public as well as experts from a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 variety of institutions. It is committed to open dialogue
with the academic world. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Research results of a
technical nature and policy-related studies of general interest are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 published by staff members in the ECB\u8217?s Working Paper
and Occasional Paper series \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 respectively.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 69
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg71}
{\bkmkend Pg71}\par\pard\qj \li1757\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1757\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1757\ri1619\sb194\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Finally, the transparency of
monetary policy also requires that the statistical data \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 collected by the central bank be published, once their
reliability has been ensured, fully \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 and in a
timely manner. With the help of the NCBs, the ECB collects money and banking
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 and related statistics, balance of payments
statistics and international investment \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 position
statistics, and compiles financial accounts statistics covering the euro area \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 (see Box 3.5). The timely publication of these data
allows the ECB to share with the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 public the
information it possesses on economic developments in the euro area and \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 thereby facilitates the communication of monetary
policy decisions by the Governing \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Council.
\par\pard\qj \li1757\ri1619\sb248\sl-253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Given
that the Eurosystem is obliged to communicate in a multicultural and
multilingual \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 environment, the NCBs are essential
players in the communication strategy. They \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
maintain close contact with national and regional audiences, translating the policy
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 signals into different languages and tailoring
them to the national context. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 70
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg72}
{\bkmkend Pg72}\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-333\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1702\sb232\sl-333\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex96
\ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs29 4 MONETARY POLICY IMPLEMENTATION \par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-251\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-251\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-251\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1508\sb42\sl-
251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf14\f15\fs20 This
chapter explains how monetary policy decisions are implemented using the \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 available monetary policy instruments.The first section
gives an overview of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 objectives and
principles that govern the functioning of the Eurosystem\u8217?s \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 operational framework.The second section briefly describes
the main monetary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 policy instruments (open
market operations, the standing facilities and the \line \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 minimum reserve system), while the following sections examine these
in greater \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 detail and present the interaction
between the monetary policy instruments and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 the
banks\u8217? liquidity needs in the context of a central bank balance sheet.The
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 final section provides a brief assessment of the
operational framework\u8217?s \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 performance in the
first four and a half years of the single monetary
policy.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols4\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\
colsr160\colno3\colw3188\colsr110\colno4\colw1389\colsr160\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li611\sb17\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Money market\par\pard\ql
\li1035\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 and the\par\pard\qj
\li471\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0\fi54 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 transmission of
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 monetary policy\par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li775\sb150\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
Operational\par\pard\ql \li709\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
framework...\par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li471\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li899\sb104\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 ...and the\par\pard\ql \li471\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 monetary policy\par\pard\ql
\li1001\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
strategy\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb125\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
6\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 4.1 GENERAL PRINCIPLES
AND\par\pard\qj \li20\ri109\sb8\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100
OBJECTIVES BEHIND THE DESIGN OF THE \up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex100 OPERATIONAL
FRAMEWORK\par\pard\qj \li20\ri69\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 As discussed in Chapter 3,
short-term \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 money market rates play an
important \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 role in the transmission of
monetary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 policy. Monetary policy exerts \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 significant influence over short-term \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 nominal market interest rates. By \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 setting interest rates, monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 influences the economy, and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 ultimately the price level, in a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 number of ways.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 In order
to achieve its primary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 objective, the
Eurosystem has at its \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 disposal a set of
monetary policy \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 instruments and procedures.
This set \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 forms the operational framework
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 used to implement the single monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 policy.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 The operational
framework and the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 monetary policy strategy each
have a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 specific role in the implementation \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 of monetary policy. The strategy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 determines which money market \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 interest rate level is required to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 maintain price stability over the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 medium term, whereas the operational \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 framework determines how to achieve\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb94\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 this interest rate level
using the\par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
available monetary policy instruments.\par\pard\qj \li5103\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb8\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 A central
bank steers short-term \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 money market rates by
signalling its \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 monetary policy stance and by
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 managing the liquidity situation in the \line
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 money market. The central bank, as the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 sole issuer of banknotes and bank \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 reserves, is the monopoly supplier of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 the monetary base. The monetary base \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 of the euro area consists of currency \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 (banknotes and coins) in circulation, \line \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 the reserves held by counterparties with \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 the Eurosystem and recourse to the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 Eurosystem\u8217?s deposit facility. These \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 items are liabilities in the Eurosystem\u8217?s \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 balance sheet. Reserves can be broken \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 down further into required and excess \line \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 reserves. In the Eurosystem\u8217?s minimum \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 reserve system, counterparties are \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 obliged to hold reserves with the NCBs \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 (see Section 4.3). In addition to these \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 required reserves, credit institutions \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 usually hold only a small amount of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 voluntary excess reserves with the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 Eurosystem.\par\pard\qj \li5103\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 By virtue of
its monopoly, the central \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 bank is able to manage
the liquidity \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 situation in the money market
and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 influence money market interest rates.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
71\par\pard\column \ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb122\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The
functions of\par\pard\qj \li20\ri314\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 the operational \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
framework\par\pard\qj \li20\ri279\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
include steering \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 interest rates \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 and managing \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
liquidity,\u8230?
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg73}
{\bkmkend
Pg73}\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols4\colno1\colw1590\colsr110\colno2\colw3252\co
lsr160\colno3\colw3188\colsr110\colno4\colw1390\colsr160\ql \li470\sb0\sl-
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172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?
signalling the\par\pard\ql \li470\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
monetary policy\par\pard\ql \li976\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
stance\u8230?\par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li548\sb169\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \u8230?and ensuring\par\pard\ql
\li856\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 an orderly\par\pard\ql
\li617\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 functioning
of\par\pard\ql \li848\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the
money\par\pard\ql \li1073\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
market\par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li510\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li778\sb145\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 The
guiding\par\pard\ql \li718\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
principles of\par\pard\ql \li575\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
the framework\par\pard\ql \li1065\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
are the\par\pard\qj \li510\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0\tx705 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 principles of an \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 open
market\par\pard\ql \li791\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
economy,\u8230?\par\pard\qj \li642\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li642\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li642\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li642\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li642\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li642\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li642\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li642\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li642\ri0\sb58\sl-180\slmult0\tx744 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \u8230?operational \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
efficiency,\u8230?\par\pard\column \ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 In addition to steering interest rates by\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 managing liquidity, the
central bank \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 can also signal its monetary policy
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 stance to the money market. This is \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex123 usually done by changing the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 conditions under which the central \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex127 bank is willing to enter into \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 transactions with credit institutions.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri72\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 In its operations the
central bank also \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 aims to ensure an orderly
functioning \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 of the money market and to help
credit \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 institutions meet their liquidity
needs \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 in a smooth manner. This is achieved \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 by providing both regular refinancing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 to credit institutions and facilities that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 allow them to deal with end-of-day \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 balances and to cushion transitory \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 liquidity fluctuations.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb190\sl-
250\slmult0\tx1260 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 The operational framework of
the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Eurosystem is based on the principles \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 laid down in the Treaty on European \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 Union. Article 105 of the Treaty states \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 that in pursuing its objectives, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 Eurosystem \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex127 \u8220?
(\u8230?) shall act in\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 accordance with the principle of an \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 open market economy with free \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 competition, favouring an efficient \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 allocation of resources (\u8230?)\u8221?.\par\pard\qj
\li1700\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 In addition to the principles set out in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 the Treaty on European Union, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 operational framework aims to follow \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 several guiding principles. The most \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 important of these is the principle of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 operational efficiency, which takes \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 priority over the other principles. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Operational efficiency can be defined \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 as the capacity of the operational \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 framework to enable monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 decisions to feed through as precisely \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 and as quickly as possible to short-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 term money market rates. These in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 turn, through the monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 transmission mechanism, affect the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 price level.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
72\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The need to
ensure equal treatment\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 of financial institutions and the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 harmonisation of rules and procedures \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 throughout the euro area are other \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 important principles of the operational \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 framework. Credit institutions must be \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 treated equally irrespective of their \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 size and of where they are located in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 the euro area. The harmonisation of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 rules and procedures helps to ensure \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 equal treatment by trying to provide \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 identical conditions to all credit \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 institutions in the euro area in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 transactions with the Eurosystem.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 One principle which is
specific to the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Eurosystem is the
decentralisation of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 the implementation of
monetary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 policy. Accordingly, the
Eurosystem\u8217?s \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 monetary policy operations
are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 normally implemented through the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 NCBs, which means that the ECB \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 coordinates the operations and the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 transactions are carried out by the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 NCBs.\par\pard\qj \li5102\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 In addition,
the operational framework \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex122 has to apply the
principles of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 simplicity, transparency,
continuity, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 safety and cost efficiency.
Simplicity \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 and transparency ensure that
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 intentions behind monetary policy
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 operations are correctly understood. \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 The principle of continuity aims at \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 avoiding major changes in instruments \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 and procedures, so that central banks \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 and their counterparties can draw on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 experience when participating in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 monetary policy operations. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 principle of safety requires that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 the Eurosystem\u8217?s financial and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 operational risks are kept to a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 minimum, while cost efficiency \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 implies low operational costs for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex129 both the Eurosystem and its \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120
counterparties arising from the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 operational
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\li20\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 treatment of\par\pard\ql
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\li20\ri278\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 institutions and
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri392\sb0\sl-
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1\charscalex100 procedures,\u8230?\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8390\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri23\sb146\sl-
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\li20\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 transparency,\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 continuity,\par\pard\qj
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\expndtw-3\charscalex100 efficiency
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 main features of the two groups of\par\pard\ql
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\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 for the conduct of the
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\expndtw0\charscalex110 policy: open market operations and \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex112 operations that are executed on the \line \up0 \expndtw-
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\expndtw0\charscalex112 the money market. As described in \line \up0
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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 the market in which the maturity of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 transactions is generally less than one \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 year. Open market operations play an \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 important role in steering interest \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 rates, signalling the stance of monetary
\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0\par\pard\li1758\sb0\sl-
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Table 4.1\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Eurosystem
open market operations and standing facilities\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone
\li1758\sb87\sl-184\slmult0\fi0\tx3176\tx5670\tx7031 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf34\f35\fs15 Monetary\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Types of
transactions\ul0\super\cf46\f47\fs12\ul0\super\cf46\f47\fs11 1)\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf34\f35\fs15 Maturity\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Frequency\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb6\sl-
184\slmult0\fi0\tx3062\tx4309 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 policy\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Liquidity-\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
Liquidity-\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb6\sl-184\slmult0\fi0\tx3062\tx4309
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 operations\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
providing\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 absorbing\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone
\li1758\sb66\sl-184\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Open market
operations\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb47\sl-
207\slmult0\fi0\tx3062\tx4402\tx5670\tx7031 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf52\f53\fs17 Main\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226?
Reverse\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226?
One week\ul0\super\cf53\f54\fs14\ul0\super\cf53\f54\fs13 2)\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf52\f53\fs17 \u8226?
Weekly\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb3\sl-207\slmult0\fi0\tx3167 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 refinancing\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
transactions\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb3\sl-207\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 operations\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb43\sl-
207\slmult0\fi0\tx3062\tx4403\tx5670\tx7031 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Longer-
term\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? Reverse\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 -\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? Three months\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? Monthly\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone
\li1758\sb3\sl-207\slmult0\fi0\tx3167 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
refinancing\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
transactions\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb3\sl-207\slmult0\fi0 \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? Foreign\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226?
Non-\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? Non-
regular\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb3\sl-
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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 transactions\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
exchange\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
standardised\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb3\sl-207\slmult0\fi2655 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 swaps\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb43\sl-
207\slmult0\fi1303\tx4309 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? Foreign\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? Collection of\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone
\li1758\sb3\sl-207\slmult0\fi1408\tx4414 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
exchange\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 fixed-term\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone
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Reverse\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb1\sl-198\slmult0\fi2655 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 transactions\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb45\sl-
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? Outright\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone
\li1758\sb3\sl-207\slmult0\fi1397\tx4414 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 purchases\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 sales\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb43\sl-
207\slmult0\fi0\tx3062\tx4310\tx5670\tx7031 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
Structural\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? Reverse\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? Issuance of\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf52\f53\fs17 Marginal\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226?
Reverse\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226?
Overnight\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? Access at
the\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb3\sl-207\slmult0\fi0\tx3166\tx7135
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 lending\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
transactions\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 discretion
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 facility\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
counterparties\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1758\sb43\sl-
207\slmult0\fi0\tx3155\tx4309\tx5670\tx7030 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
Deposit\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 -\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226?
Deposits\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? Overnight\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8226? Access at the\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone
\li1758\sb3\sl-207\slmult0\fi0\tx7135 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 facility\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 discretion of\par\pard\ql \li7132\sb10\sl-
195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 counterparties \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb13\sl-161\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 1) See Box 4.3 for a
description of the types of open market transactions. \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb19\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 2) As of 10 March 2004. Prior to that date two weeks (see
Box 4.2). \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 73
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg75}
{\bkmkend
Pg75}\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4942\colsr160\colno2\colw4678\co
lsr160\ql \li456\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li456\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li456\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb51\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 policy and managing
the liquidity\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
situation in the money market.\par\pard\ql \li456\sb0\sl-184\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li456\sb126\sl-184\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Main refinancing\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The main refinancing operations\par\pard\ql
\li842\sb1\sl-178\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 operations\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (MROs) are the most important open\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb110\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 market operations and
represent the\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
key monetary policy instrument of\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 the Eurosystem. Through the main\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 refinancing operations the
Eurosystem\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
lends funds to its counterparties.\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Lending is always against collateral, in\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 order to protect the
Eurosystem\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115
against financial risks. Box \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 4.1\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex122 provides some
information on\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 counterparties to the Eurosystem\u8217?s\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 monetary policy operations
and the\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
collateral required in the liquidity-\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 providing operations.\par\pard\ql \li729\sb0\sl-
184\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1047\sb128\sl-184\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Reverse\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Lending through open
market\par\pard\ql \li729\sb0\sl-180\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 transactions\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 operations normally takes place in the\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb108\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 form of reverse
transactions. In\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 reverse transactions of this kind the\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 central bank buys
assets under a\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 repurchase agreement or grants a loan\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 against assets given as
collateral (see\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 Box 4.3). Reverse transactions are\par\pard\column \ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 therefore temporary open market\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 operations which
provide funds for a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 limited and pre-specified
period only.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 For the purpose of controlling
short-\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
Standing\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb1\sl-169\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
facilities\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 term interest rates in the money\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 market and, in
particular, restricting \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 their volatility, the
Eurosystem also \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 offers two standing facilities
to its\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
counterparties, the marginal lending \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 facility
and the deposit facility. Both \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 facilities have
an overnight maturity\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 and are available to counterparties on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 their own initiative. The interest rate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 on the marginal lending facility is\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 normally substantially
higher than the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 corresponding market rate, and
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 interest rate on the deposit
facility\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
is normally substantially lower than \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 the market
rate. As a result, credit \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 institutions normally
only use the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 standing facilities when there are no \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 other alternatives. Since - except for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 the collateral requirements of the\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 marginal lending
facility - there are no \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 limits on the access to
these facilities, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 their interest rates normally
provide a \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \ql \li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb84\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Box
4.1\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Counterparties and collateral \par\pard\ql
\li1757\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb46\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 1. Counterparties \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1618\sb0\sl-252\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 The Eurosystem\u8217?s monetary policy framework is
formulated with a view to ensuring \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 the
participation of a broad range of counterparties. Counterparties to Eurosystem
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 monetary policy operations must fulfil certain
eligibility criteria. These criteria are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 defined
in such a way as to ensure equal treatment for institutions across the euro area
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 and to ensure that counterparties fulfil certain
operational and prudential requirements. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 The
general eligibility criteria are uniform throughout the euro area. \par\pard\qj
\li1757\ri1617\sb248\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 To be an eligible
counterparty a credit institution must be subject to the Eurosystem\u8217?s
\line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 minimum reserve system and be financially
sound. In addition, counterparties must fulfil \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
any operational criteria specified in the relevant contractual or regulatory
arrangements \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 applied by their NCB (or by the
ECB), so as to ensure the efficient conduct of Eurosystem \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 monetary policy operations. At the end of June 2003 there
were 6,776 credit institutions \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 located in the
euro area. However, only 2,243 fulfilled the operational criteria for \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 participating in open market operations. 2,749 and 3,188
fulfilled the operational criteria \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 for
accessing the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility respectively.
However, \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 the number of counterparties actually
participating in open market operations is normally
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 74
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg76}
{\bkmkend Pg76}\par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-253\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\sb0\sl-
253\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1618\sb185\sl-253\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 much lower than the number of
eligible counterparties. In the first half of 2003 the total \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 number of counterparties participating in the tenders for
the main refinancing operations \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 averaged 252. At the
same time, the number of counterparties participating in the longer\up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 term refinancing operations (LTROs) was 136 on average.
\par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-248\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1617\sb4\sl-
248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 A credit institution fulfilling the
general eligibility criteria may access the Eurosystem \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 standing facilities and participate in Eurosystem open
market operations based on \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 standard tenders
through the NCB of the Member State in which it is established. If a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 credit institution has establishments (a head office and
branches) in more than one \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Member State, each
establishment has access to these operations through the NCB of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 the Member State in which it is located. However, the
tender bids of an institution may \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 only be
submitted by one establishment (either the head office or a designated branch)
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 in each Member State. \par\pard\qj
\li1758\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1618\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 The Eurosystem\u8217?s monetary policy operations are
implemented in a decentralised \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 manner. The
decentralised approach has been very efficient and has run smoothly thanks \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 to careful preparation and efficient information systems.
The Eurosystem continues to \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 benefit greatly from the
close contacts which the NCBs have built up over the decades \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 with their local counterparties. \par\pard\ql
\li1758\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb101\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 2. Collateral \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1618\sb22\sl-248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Article 18.1 of the Statute of the ESCB allows the
ECB and the NCBs to transact \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 in financial markets by
buying and selling underlying assets outright or under \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
repurchase agreements and requires all Eurosystem credit operations to be based
on \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 adequate collateral. This requirement is designed
to protect the Eurosystem against \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 financial risk.
Consequently, all Eurosystem liquidity-providing operations are based \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 on underlying assets provided by the counterparties.
\par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1618\sb1\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 In order to protect the Eurosystem from
incurring losses, ensure the equal treatment \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 of
counterparties and enhance operational efficiency, underlying assets have to fulfil
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 certain criteria in order to be eligible for use in
Eurosystem monetary policy operations. \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 The Eurosystem
accepts instruments issued by both private and public debtors as \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 collateral in order to respect the principle of equal
treatment. \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1556\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Owing to the differences in financial structure across
Member States, a distinction is \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 made -
essentially for purposes internal to the Eurosystem - between two categories of
assets \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 eligible for monetary policy operations.
These two asset categories are referred to as \u8220?tier \line \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 one\u8221? and \u8220?tier two\u8221?. Tier one consists of
marketable debt instruments which fulfil uniform \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
euro area-wide eligibility criteria specified by the ECB. Tier two consists of
additional \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 assets - marketable and non-
marketable - which are of particular importance for national \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 financial markets and banking systems. The eligibility
criteria for these assets are set \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 by the NCBs,
subject to the minimum eligibility criteria established by the ECB. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Eurosystem counterparties may use eligible assets on a
cross-border basis, i.e. they may \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 obtain funds
from the NCB of the Member State in which they are established by making \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 use of assets located in another Member State. This cross-
border mechanism ensures that \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 institutions all
over the euro area can use the complete lists of ECB tier one and national \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 tier two assets. Finally, all eligible assets are
subject to specific risk-control measures \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 which
are defined in such a way that account is taken of market practices.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 75
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg77}
{\bkmkend Pg77}\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb206\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Chart
4.1\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Key ECB interest rates and the EONIA \par\pard\ql
\li1757\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb109\sl-161\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf26\f27\fs13 (percentages per annum; daily
data) \par\pard\ql \li2502\sb99\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 marginal lending rate \par\pard\ql \li2502\sb19\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 deposit rate \par\pard\ql
\li2502\sb19\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 overnight interest rate
EONIA \par\pard\ql \li2502\sb29\sl-149\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 main
refinancing rate/minimum bid rate\ul0\super\cf19\f20\fs14 1)
\par\pard\li1820\sb95\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7860 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 7.00\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
7.00\par\pard\li1820\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1820\sb66\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7860 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 6.00\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 6.00\par\pard\li1820\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1820\sb64\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7860 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 5.00\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 5.00\par\pard\li1820\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1820\sb66\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7860 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4.00\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 4.00\par\pard\li1820\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1820\sb65\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7860 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 3.00\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 3.00\par\pard\li1820\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1820\sb66\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7860 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2.00\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 2.00\par\pard\li1820\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1820\sb64\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7860 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 1.00\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 1.00\par\pard\li1820\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1820\sb66\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7860 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 0.00\tab \dn2 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 0.00\par\pard\li1820\sb41\sl-
161\slmult0\fi186\tx2630\tx3265\tx3889\tx4524\tx5147\tx5782\tx6406\tx7041 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\par\pard\li1820\sb1\sl-
135\slmult0\fi788\tx3867\tx5125\tx6384\tx7322 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
1999\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2000\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
2001\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2002\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
2003\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb138\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Source:
ECB. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1587\sb4\sl-180\slmult0\tx1870\tx1870 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 1) Before 28 June 2000 the main refinancing operations were
conducted as fixed rate tenders. Starting from the \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 operation settled on 28 June 2000 the main refinancing
operations were conducted as variable rate tenders with \line \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 a pre-announced minimum bid rate. The minimum bid rate
refers to the minimum interest rate at which \par\pard\ql \li1870\sb16\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 counterparties may place their bids (see
Section
4.4).\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1590\colsr110\colno2\colw3252\co
lsr160\colno3\colw4678\colsr160\ql \li470\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li470\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li470\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li470\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li470\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li470\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li470\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li470\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li470\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li807\sb94\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Corridor of\par\pard\qj \li470\ri0\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0\tx638 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 standing facility \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 interest rates\par\pard\column \ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb137\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ceiling and a floor for the overnight\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 rate in the money
market. These \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 instruments are examined in more
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 detail in Section 4.5.\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-
249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
By setting the rates on the standing \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 facilities,
the Governing Council \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 determines the corridor
within which \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 the overnight money market rate can
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 fluctuate. Chart 4.1, which shows the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 development of the key ECB interest \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 rates since January 1999, also shows \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 how the interest rates on the standing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 facilities have provided a ceiling and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 a floor for the overnight market \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 interest rate (EONIA).\ul0\super\cf25\f26\fs20
8\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb137\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 As
can be seen from Chart 4.1, the\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 EONIA, the key\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
EONIA has generally remained close to\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 ECB interest\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-
135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 rates and the\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
140\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 the
rate on the main refinancing\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 minimum\par\pard\ql \li20\sb15\sl-
210\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
operations, thus illustrating the\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 reserve system\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb7\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 importance
of these operations as the \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 main monetary policy
instrument of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Eurosystem. Chart 4.1 also
shows that\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
the EONIA exhibits a pattern of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 occasional
spikes. These two features \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 of the EONIA are
related to the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb1\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 Eurosystem\u8217?s minimum reserve system, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 which is explained further in Section \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 4.3. Finally, Chart 4.1 illustrates that\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 the differences
between the standing \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 facility rates and the rate
on the main \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 refinancing operations were
kept\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 unchanged
between April \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 1999 and\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 June 2003 (�1 percentage
point).\ul0\super\cf25\f26\fs20 9 \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \qj \li1700\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1587\sb141\sl-180\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 8\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13
The euro overnight index average (EONIA) is disseminated by the European Banking
Federation (EBF). It is \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the weighted average of
all uncollateralised overnight loans made by a panel of the banks most active in
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 money market. \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1594\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 9\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 A narrow corridor of �0.25
percentage point was applied as a transitional measure between 4 and 21 January
1999 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 to facilitate the adaptation to the single
operational framework. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 76
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4627\shptop5441\shpright4627\shpbottom2728\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz286\shplid19{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5252\shptop5441\shpright5252\shpbottom2728\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6511\shptop5441\shpright6511\shpbottom2728\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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}}
{\shp
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pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz292\shplid24{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2113\shptop2737\shpright2113\shpbottom5449\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2113\shptop5449\shpright7779\shpbottom5449\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2113\shptop5502\shpright2113\shpbottom5449\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2738\shptop5502\shpright2738\shpbottom5449\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3373\shptop5502\shpright3373\shpbottom5449\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4001\shptop5502\shpright4001\shpbottom5449\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4636\shptop5502\shpright4636\shpbottom5449\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5261\shptop5502\shpright5261\shpbottom5449\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5895\shptop5502\shpright5895\shpbottom5449\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6519\shptop5502\shpright6519\shpbottom5449\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7155\shptop5502\shpright7155\shpbottom5449\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2104\shptop2729\shpright2104\shpbottom5441\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7771\shptop2729\shpright7771\shpbottom5441\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2104\shptop5441\shpright7771\shpbottom5441\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2104\shptop5493\shpright2104\shpbottom5441\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3992\shptop5493\shpright3992\shpbottom5441\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4627\shptop5493\shpright4627\shpbottom5441\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5252\shptop5493\shpright5252\shpbottom5441\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5887\shptop5493\shpright5887\shpbottom5441\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7147\shptop5493\shpright7147\shpbottom5441\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7771\shptop5493\shpright7771\shpbottom5441\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2131\shptop3698\shpright2135\shpbottom4182\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2117\shptop3214\shpright7769\shpbottom4279\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2129\shptop4376\shpright2808\shpbottom4860\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
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}}

{\shp
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2808\shptop3989\shpright3497\shpbottom4767\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3497\shptop3601\shpright4188\shpbottom4317\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz885\shplid57
{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4188\shptop3225\shpright4877\shpbottom3845\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn lineType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fArrowheadsOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4877\shptop3214\shpright5567\shpbottom4232\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz1172\shplid59
{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li668\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li668\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li668\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li668\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li668\sb58\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
Reserve ratio\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb93\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-6\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
4.3 MINIMUM RESERVES\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb66\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Description of the system\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The ECB requires credit institutions to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 hold compulsory deposits on accounts \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 with the NCBs: these are called \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \u8220?minimum\u8221? or \u8220?required\u8221?
reserves.\ul0\super\cf25\f26\fs20 10 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The amount of required reserves to be \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 held by each institution is determined \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 by its reserve base. The reserve base \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 of an institution is defined in relation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 to the elements of its balance sheet. \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 Table \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 4.2 shows the main
liability\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 items
included in the reserve base.\ul0\super\cf25\f26\fs20 11\par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 In order to determine an
institution\u8217?s \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 reserve requirement, the
reserve base \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 is multiplied by a reserve ratio.
The \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 ECB applies a uniform positive \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 reserve ratio to most of the items \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 included in the reserve base. This \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 reserve ratio was set at 2% at the start\par\pard\column
\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 of Stage Three of EMU. Most of\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 the short-term
liabilities on credit \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 institutions\u8217?
balance sheets are subject \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 to a positive reserve
ratio. As can be\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1496\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 seen from Table 4.2, neither long-term \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 liabilities nor repurchase agreements \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 are subject to a positive reserve ratio.\par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 Institutions can deduct a uniform\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Lump-sum\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb5\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 allowance\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
lump-sum allowance from their\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 reserve requirement. Since the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 introduction of the euro they have \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 been entitled to deduct \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf44\f45\fs19 \u8364?\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
100,000.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
This allowance is designed to reduce \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 the
administrative costs arising \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 from managing
very small reserve\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-171\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 requirements.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb67\sl-218\slmult0\tx3322 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 In
order to meet their reserve\tab \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Averaging\par\pard\ql \li3317\sb1\sl-169\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 provisions\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 requirements, credit
institutions have\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 to hold balances on their current \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 accounts with the NCBs. In this
\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \ql \li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1758\sb152\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Table 4.2 \ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Credit
institutions\u8217? liabilities included in the reserve base \par\pard\ql
\li1758\sb100\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf33\f34\fs14 (stock levels as at the end of June 2003; EUR
billions) \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb69\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf54\f55\fs17 (A) Liabilities to which a positive reserve ratio is
applied \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb26\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Deposits (including overnight deposits, deposits with
an \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb42\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 agreed
maturity up to two years and deposits redeemable at \par\pard\li1758\sb37\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx7646 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 a period of notice of up to two
years)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 6,216\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Debt securities issued with a maturity
of up to two years\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx7806 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 (including money market paper)\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 412\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx7646 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Total (A)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
6,628\par\pard\li1758\sb42\sl-207\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf54\f55\fs17 (B) Liabilities to which a zero reserve ratio is
applied\par\pard\li1758\sb34\sl-218\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Deposits (including deposits with an agreed maturity
of\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 over two
years and deposits redeemable at a period of notice\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx7646 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 of over two years)\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 1,421\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx7646
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Debt securities issued with a maturity of over two
years\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 2,536\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi0\tx7806 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Repurchase agreements\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 783\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx7646
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Total (B)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
4,741\par\pard\li1758\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx7543 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
Total reserve base (A)+(B)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 11,369\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb105\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Source: ECB. \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1585\sb64\sl-180\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 10\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13
The legal framework for the Eurosystem\u8217?s minimum reserve system is based on
Article 19 of the Statute of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 the ESCB. The
details of the minimum reserve system are contained in several legal acts, the most
important \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 being Council Regulation (EC) No
2531/98 concerning the application of minimum reserves by the European \par\pard\qj
\li1842\ri1584\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Central Bank and
Regulation (EC) No 2818/98 of the European Central Bank on the application of
minimum \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 reserves (ECB/1998/15), as amended.
\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1585\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 11\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 Liabilities vis-�-vis
other credit institutions included in the list of institutions subject to the
Eurosystem\u8217?s \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 minimum reserve system and
liabilities vis-�-vis the ECB and the NCBs are not included in the reserve base.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314
 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 77
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requirement system \par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1757\sb109\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
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\expndtw-2\charscalex100 reserve requirement (right-hand scale) \line \up0
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\li1813\sb50\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 6,000\par\pard\ql
\li1813\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1813\sb49\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 5,000\par\pard\ql \li1813\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1813\sb50\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4,000\par\pard\ql
\li1813\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1813\sb49\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 3,000\par\pard\ql \li1813\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1813\sb50\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2,000\par\pard\ql
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\up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 160\par\pard\ql \li7909\sb0\sl-161\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb50\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
150\par\pard\ql \li7909\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb49\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 140\par\pard\ql \li1715\sb0\sl-
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130\par\pard\ql \li1715\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb49\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 120\par\pard\ql \li1715\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb50\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
110\par\pard\ql \li1715\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb49\sl-
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\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1715\sb29\sl-161\slmult0\fi549\tx4198\tx6650
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 End of month\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Start
of maintenance period\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 End of maintenance
period\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \li1715\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1715\sb28\sl-161\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
Source:
ECB.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1590\colsr110\colno2\colw3252\col
sr160\colno3\colw4678\colsr160\ql \li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li713\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1041\sb65\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Reserve\par\pard\ql \li713\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 maintenance\par\pard\ql \li1116\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 period\par\pard\column \ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb17\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 respect, the
Eurosystem\u8217?s minimum\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 reserve system enables counterparties \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 to make use of averaging provisions. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 This means that compliance with \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 reserve requirements is determined on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 the basis of the average of the daily \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 balances on the counterparties\u8217? reserve \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 accounts over a reserve maintenance \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 period of around one month.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri72\sb190\sl-250\slmult0\tx2711 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 The Governing
Council decided in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex128 2003 that as of March
\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 2004\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb1\sl-249\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 maintenance periods would start on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 the settlement day of the first main \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 refinancing operation following the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Governing Council meeting at which \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 the monthly assessment of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 monetary policy stance is pre-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 scheduled \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 (see Box \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 4.2), and will\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb1\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex122 end on the day preceding the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 corresponding settlement day in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 following month. To help credit \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 institutions prepare their reserves \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 management, a maintenance period \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 schedule (together with an indicative \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 schedule for the main refinancing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 operations for a calendar year) are
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
78\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb17\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 published three months before the
start\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 of that
year.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb64\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 The Eurosystem aims to ensure
that\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
Remuneration\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb1\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
of required\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 the minimum reserve system neither\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 reserves\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 puts a burden on the banking
system in\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
the euro area nor hinders the efficient \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114
allocation of resources. For this \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 reason,
credit institutions\u8217? holdings of\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 required reserves are remunerated. The
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 remuneration corresponds to the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 average, over the maintenance period,\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb0\sl-171\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 of the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 \u8220?marginal rate of allotment\u8221?\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 (weighted according to
the number of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 calendar days) of the main
refinancing \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 operations (see also Section 4.4).
As\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 the
marginal tender rates are generally \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 very close
to the short-term money \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 market interest rates,
the required\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 reserves are remunerated at close to \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 the market rate.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb50\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 Chart
4.2 shows an example of the\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Determination\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
determination of the Eurosystem\u8217?s\tab \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 of reserve\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 requirements\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 reserve
requirement. In this example,\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex123 the reserve base of the credit \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 institutions is determined by the
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{\sp{\sn pSegmentInfo}{\sv
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li539\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Stabilisation of\par\pard\qj \li599\ri0\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0\tx639 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 money market \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 interest rates\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 liabilities taken from their balance\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 sheets as at 31 May
2003. By applying \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 the 2% reserve ratio to the relevant
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 reserve base and deducting the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 lump-sum allowance, the reserve \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 requirements are determined for the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 following maintenance period (which \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 in this case started on 24 June and \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 ended on 23 July 2003).\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 The
dark blue line in Chart \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 4.2\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri70\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx900\tx1868\tx2493 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
indicates how averaging provisions \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 work in the
Eurosystem\u8217?s minimum \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 reserve system.
Credit institutions\u8217? \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 current account
holdings can fluctuate \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 freely \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 around \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 the \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 reserve\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 requirements, but the average current \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex105 the whole maintenance period. In the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 example, the average credit institution \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 holdings on current accounts with the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 Eurosystem amounted to \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf44\f45\fs19 \u8364?\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
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billion, implying voluntarily held \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 excess
reserves of \ul0\nosupersub\cf44\f45\fs19 \u8364?\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 0.6
billion over the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 reserve requirements of
\ul0\nosupersub\cf44\f45\fs19 \u8364?\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 131.5
billion.\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Functions
of the system\par\pard\qj \li20\ri69\sb7\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The first key function of the
minimum \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 reserve system is to stabilise money
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 market interest rates. This function is \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 performed by the averaging provision. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 The averaging provision allows credit \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 institutions to smooth out daily \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 liquidity fluctuations (e.g. those arising \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 from fluctuations in the demand for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 banknotes), since transitory reserve \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 imbalances can be offset by opposite \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 reserve imbalances generated within \line \up0
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The averaging provision implies that \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
institutions can profit from lending in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 the
market and run a reserve deficit \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 whenever the
shortest money market \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 rates are above those
expected to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 prevail for the remainder of
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 maintenance period. In the
opposite\par\pard\column \ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
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\li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 scenario, they can borrow
in the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
market and run a reserve surplus. In \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 theory,
this \u8220?intertemporal arbitrage\u8221? \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
should ensure equality throughout the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114
maintenance period between the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 current level
and the expected level of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 the shortest money
market rates at the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 end of the maintenance
period. This \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 mechanism stabilises the
overnight \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 interest rate during the
maintenance \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 period and makes it unnecessary
for \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 the central bank to intervene frequently
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 in the money market.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 The averaging provision
works very \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 smoothly during the maintenance
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 period. However, at the end of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 period, the reserve requirement \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 becomes binding and banks can no \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 longer transfer a liquidity surplus or \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 deficit into the future. This explains \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 the spikes in the EONIA towards the \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 end of each maintenance period, which \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 can be seen from Chart 4.1.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 A second important function assigned \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 to the minimum reserve system is the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 enlargement of the structural liquidity \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 shortage of the banking system. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 need for credit institutions to hold \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 reserves with the NCBs contributes to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 increasing the demand for central bank \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 refinancing which, in turn, makes it \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 easier for the ECB to steer money \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 market rates through regular liquidity-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 providing operations.\par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb19\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-6\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 4.4 OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS\par\pard\qj \li5103\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb8\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The Eurosystem\u8217?s open
market \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 operations can be divided into the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 following four categories according \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 to their aim, regularity and the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 procedures followed: main refinancing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 operations, longer-term refinancing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 operations, fine-tuning
operations \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 and structural operations (see
Table \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 4.1 and Box 4.3).
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\li20\ri408\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the structural \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 liquidity\par\pard\ql \li20\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
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\par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri319\sb75\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Four
categories \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 of open market \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 operations
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li696\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li910\sb23\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Fixed and\par\pard\ql \li696\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 variable rate\par\pard\ql \li1044\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 tenders\par\pard\column \ql
\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Main refinancing
operations\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 As mentioned above, the
main \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 refinancing operations are the most
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 important open market operations \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 conducted by the Eurosystem. They \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 play a pivotal role in steering interest \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 rates, managing the liquidity situation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 in the market and signalling the stance \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 of monetary policy (through the main \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 refinancing rate set by the Governing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 Council). They also provide the bulk \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 of liquidity to the banking system. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 Main refinancing operations are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 executed in a decentralised manner by \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 the NCBs.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb190\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 Main refinancing operations are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 liquidity-providing operations that are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 conducted on a weekly basis. In 2003 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 the Governing Council decided that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 their maturity would be reduced from \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 two weeks to one week as of March \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 2004 (see Box 4.2).\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-
249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115
Main refinancing operations are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 executed
through standard tenders. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 In the context of
the operational \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 framework of the Eurosystem,
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \u8220?standard\u8221? indicates tender
operations \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 that are conducted in accordance with
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 a pre-announced schedule, which is \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 completed within a period of 24 hours \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 from the announcement of the tender \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 to the communication of the results. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 All counterparties fulfilling general \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 eligibility criteria may participate in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 these operations. In principle, all \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 credit institutions located in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 euro area are potentially eligible \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 counterparties of the Eurosystem (see \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Box 4.1).\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 The
Eurosystem may execute its \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 tenders in the
form of fixed rate or \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 variable rate tenders. In
the former, the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 interest rate is specified in
advance \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 by the Governing Council and
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 counterparties bid the amount of
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
80\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 money they
wish to transact at the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 fixed interest rate. In the latter, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 counterparties bid both the amount of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 money they wish to transact and\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 the interest rate at
which they wish \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 to enter into the
transaction. The \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex123 Governing Council may set
a\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 minimum
bid rate for variable rate \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 tenders, in order to
signal the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 monetary policy stance.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 Under both tender
procedures, the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 ECB decides on the amount
of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 liquidity provided. In a fixed
rate\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
tender, this normally implies a pro rata \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
allotment of the individual bank bids, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 depending
on the ratio between total\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 bids and total liquidity to be allotted. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 In a variable rate tender, the bids with \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 the highest interest rates are satisfied\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0\tx707 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 first,\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex129 followed by bids with\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1499\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 successively lower rates, until the
total \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 amount of liquidity to be provided is
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 exhausted. At the lowest accepted
rate,\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
the \u8220?marginal rate of allotment\u8221?, bids \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 are satisfied pro rata in line with the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 ECB\u8217?s decision on the total amount of\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 liquidity to be
allotted. For each \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 individual allotment, the
interest rate \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 is equal to the interest rate
bid.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 From the beginning of 1999 to
June\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Use of
tender\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 2000 the Eurosystem
conducted its\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
procedures\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
since 1999\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 main refinancing operations as fixed\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 rate tenders. Since 27
June 2000 the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 main refinancing operations have
been \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 conducted as variable rate tenders
with\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 a
minimum bid rate using a multiple \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 rate
procedure. The reason for the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 change was severe
overbidding in the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 fixed rate main refinancing operations, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 which resulted from the existence of a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 wide and persistent spread between\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 money market interest
rates and the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 fixed rate applied to the
main \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 refinancing operations in early
2000.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 This
spread was, in turn, largely \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 driven by
market expectations of
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\par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1760\sb102\sl-240\slmult0\tx2467 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Box 4.2 \ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19
Changes to the maturity of the main refinancing operations and \line\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 the reserve maintenance period as of March 2004
\par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb152\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 As noted in Section 4.4, there have been periods of
tension in the past when pronounced \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 speculation
on an imminent interest rate change has affected counterparties\u8217? bidding
in \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 the main refinancing operations. On several
occasions in spring 2000, when expectations \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 were
high that the key ECB interest rates were about to be increased, counterparties
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 submitted increasingly excessive bids in the
main refinancing operations which were at \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 the
time conducted as fixed rate tenders (leading to what is known as \u8220?
overbidding\u8221?). \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Similarly, expectations of
an imminent reduction in the key ECB rates on occasion led \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 counterparties to submit bids that on aggregate fell short
of the amount needed to ensure \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 that the reserve
requirements were met (\u8220?underbidding\u8221?). \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1618\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Both problems
stemmed mainly from the fact that the timing of the reserve maintenance \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 periods - which started on the 24th calendar day of
each month and ended on the 23rd \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 calendar day of
the following month - was independent of the dates of the Governing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Council meetings at which changes to the key ECB rates were
decided. Thus changes \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 to the key ECB interest
rates could occur within a reserve maintenance period. In \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 addition, the maturity of the weekly main refinancing operations
(which was two weeks) \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 was such that at least the
last operation of each reserve maintenance period overlapped \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 with the subsequent reserve maintenance period. As a
result, bidding behaviour in the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 main
refinancing operations conducted at the end of a maintenance period could be
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 affected by expectations of changes in the key
ECB interest rates in the next reserve \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
maintenance period. \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-195\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1758\sb101\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 To respond to
this problem, in 2003 the Governing Council decided on two measures \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1618\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 - effective as
of March 2004 - to prevent rate change speculation during a maintenance \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 period from affecting very short-term money market
conditions: (i) the timing of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 start of the
reserve maintenance periods was changed, and (ii) the maturity of the main \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 refinancing operations was shortened to one
week.\ul0\super\cf45\f46\fs18 1\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Specifically, it was
decided that, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 with effect from March 2004,
maintenance periods would start on the settlement day \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 of the first main refinancing operation following the
Governing Council meeting at \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 which the monthly
assessment of the monetary policy stance was pre-scheduled, and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 would end on the day preceding the corresponding settlement
day in the following \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 month. This direct
relationship between the Governing Council meeting and the start \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 of the reserve maintenance period shall ensure that, as a
rule, there are no expectations \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 of changes to
the key ECB rates occurring during a reserve maintenance period. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 reduction of the maturity of the main refinancing
operations aimed at eliminating the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 spillover of
interest rate speculation from one reserve maintenance period to the next. \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 The objective of the combined measures was to
contribute towards stabilising the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 conditions in
which credit institutions bid in the main refinancing operations. \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1641\sb108\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs15\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 1\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13
Maintenance periods prior to March 2004: from the 24th calendar day of each month
to the 23rd calendar day \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 of the following month.
\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb136\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx5103 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 further increases in ECB
interest rates,\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 ECB\u8217?s main refinancing rate
made it\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx5103 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
especially in the spring of 2000. The\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 very
attractive for banks to obtain\par\pard\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi0\tx5103
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 spread between market rates and the\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 funds from the central bank and led
to\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 81
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\li559\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li559\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li559\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li559\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li559\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li559\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li559\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li559\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
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\li559\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li559\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Publication of\par\pard\ql \li559\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 liquidity needs\par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li725\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li725\ri0\sb151\sl-180\slmult0\tx815 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Longer-term
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 refinancing\par\pard\ql \li842\sb7\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 operations\par\pard\column \ql
\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 very high bids by the banks.
In a\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
variable rate tender, by contrast, banks \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 have no
incentive to overbid, since \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 they would have to
pay a higher price \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 if they wanted to obtain
more \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 liquidity.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 However, a different problem arose
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 with variable rate tenders with a \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 minimum bid rate. In a few cases, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 aggregate of all bids submitted in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 tender was lower than the amount \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 needed for the smooth fulfilment of \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 reserve requirements (\u8220?underbidding\u8221?). \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 As these episodes also stemmed from \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 significant interest rate speculation, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 Governing Council decided to adjust \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 its operational framework as of March \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 2004 (see Box 4.2).\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 Upon switching to variable rate
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 tenders, the Eurosystem also started to \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 announce, each week, the estimated \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 liquidity needs of the banking system \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 for the period until the day before \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 the settlement of the next main \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 refinancing operation. The publication \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 of this estimate assists counterparties \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 in preparing their bids for the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 forthcoming main refinancing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 operation. Section 4.6 describes the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 factors which determine the liquidity \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 needs of the banking system.\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Longer-term refinancing operations\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx1467\tx2875 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 In addition to the weekly main \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 refinancing \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
operations, \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 Eurosystem also executes monthly
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 longer-term refinancing operations \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 with a three-month maturity. These \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 operations aim at providing longer-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 term liquidity to the banking system. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 This is deemed useful in order to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 prevent all the liquidity in the money \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 market from having to be rolled over \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 each week or every two weeks, and to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 give counterparties access to longer-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 term refinancing. Like the main
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
82\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 refinancing
operations, these longer-\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 term refinancing operations are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 conducted as standard tenders in a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex125 decentralised manner, and all\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 counterparties
fulfilling general \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 eligibility criteria may
participate (see \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Box 4.1).\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Since it was not considered desirable\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Eurosystem as
a\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb3\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \u8220?rate
taker\u8221?\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 for the Eurosystem to influence money\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 market rates at more
than one point \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 along the maturity spectrum,
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 longer-term refinancing
operations\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
have been designed to ensure that the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 Eurosystem
acts as a \u8220?rate taker\u8221? in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 these
operations. In order not to\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 blur the signal arising from the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 Eurosystem\u8217?s main refinancing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 operations, longer-term refinancing\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 operations are
executed in the form of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 pure variable rate
tenders with pre-\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 announced allotment volumes.
The\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118
Governing Council indicates in \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 advance the volume
to be allotted in \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 forthcoming tenders.\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb207\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 On average, longer-
term operations\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
Provision of\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb1\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
additional\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 accounted for 26% of the outstanding\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 liquidity\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 amount of open market
operations\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
from January 1999 to June 2003. In \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 the first two
months of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 1999 the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 longer-term refinancing operations \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 were
conducted as variable rate \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 tenders using a
single rate procedure\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 (i.e. all successful bids were allotted at \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 the same interest rate). After March \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 1999 they were conducted as variable\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 rate tenders using
a multiple rate \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 procedure (i.e. bids were satisfied
at \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the individual bid rates).\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb188\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Fine-tuning operations\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The
Eurosystem may also carry out open\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Fine-tuning\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb1\sl-172\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 operations\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 market operations on an
ad hoc basis, i.e.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 fine-tuning operations. The frequency \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 and maturity of such operations are not \line \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 standardised. Fine-tuning operations can\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
171\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 be liquidity-absorbing or liquidity-
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{\bkmkend Pg84}\par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Types of open market transactions \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1617\sb196\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Reverse transactions are the main open market
instrument of the Eurosystem and can \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 be used for
all kinds of liquidity-providing open market operations. The Eurosystem \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 has three other instruments available to it for the
conduct of fine-tuning operations: \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 outright
transactions, foreign exchange swaps and the collection of fixed-term deposits.
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Finally, for structural operations the ECB may
issue debt certificates (see Table 4.1). \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-195\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1758\sb101\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-6\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 1. Reverse transactions \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1618\sb20\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Reverse transactions refer to operations where the
Eurosystem buys or sells eligible \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 assets under
repurchase agreements or conducts credit operations against eligible assets \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 provided as collateral. Reverse transactions are used for
the main refinancing operations \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 and the longer-term
refinancing operations. In addition, the Eurosystem can use reverse \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 transactions for structural and fine-tuning operations.
\par\pard\qj \li1758\sb0\sl-248\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1758\ri1618\sb4\sl-
248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 Where a reverse transaction takes the form
of a repurchase agreement, the difference \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
between the purchase price and the repurchase price corresponds to the interest due
on \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 the amount of money borrowed or lent over the
maturity of the operation, i.e. the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 repurchase
price includes the interest to be paid. The interest rate on a reverse \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 transaction in the form of a collateralised loan is
determined by applying the specified \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 interest
rate on the credit amount over the maturity of the operation. \par\pard\ql
\li1758\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb101\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 2. Outright transactions \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1618\sb20\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Outright open market transactions refer to operations
where the Eurosystem buys or \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 sells eligible assets
outright on the market. Outright open market operations are only \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 available for structural and fine-tuning purposes.
\par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb101\sl-195\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-6\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 3. Foreign exchange
swaps \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb0\sl-253\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 Foreign exchange swaps
executed for monetary policy purposes consist of simultaneous \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 spot and forward transactions in euro against a foreign
currency. They can be used for \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 fine-tuning purposes,
mainly in order to manage the liquidity situation in the market \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 and to steer interest rates. \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-
195\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb98\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 4. Collection of fixed-term
deposits \par\pard\qj \li1758\ri1618\sb0\sl-253\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 The Eurosystem may invite
counterparties to place remunerated fixed-term deposits \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 with the NCB in the Member State in which the counterparty
is established. The \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 collection of fixed-term deposits
is envisaged only for fine-tuning purposes in order \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 to
absorb liquidity in the market. \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-195\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1758\sb98\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf24\f25\fs17 5. Issuance of ECB debt certificates \par\pard\qj
\li1758\ri1618\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf22\f23\fs17 The ECB may issue debt certificates with the aim of
adjusting the structural position \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 of the Eurosystem
vis-�-vis the financial sector so as to create or increase a liquidity \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 shortage in the
market.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4943\colsr160\colno2\colw4677\
colsr160\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb72\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 providing. They aim at
managing the\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 liquidity situation and steering interest \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 rates in the money market, in particular \line \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 to smooth the effects on interest rates of\par\pard\column
\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb12\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
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the normal \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 functioning of the markets and
to \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 83
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\li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
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\li692\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0\tx821 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 and bilateral
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 procedures\par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li584\sb144\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 High degree of\par\pard\ql \li909\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 flexibility\par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li842\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li873\sb109\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Structural\par\pard\ql \li842\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 operations\par\pard\column \ql
\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 provide liquidity in highly
exceptional\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
circumstances, as was the case after the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 terrorist
attacks in the United States on \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 11 September
2001.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri70\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
Fine-tuning operations can take the form \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 of
reverse transactions, outright \line \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 transactions,
foreign exchange swaps and \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 the collection of
fixed-term deposits, all \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 of which are described
in Box \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4.3.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 However, given the many other \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 instruments in use by the Eurosystem, \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 only very limited recourse is needed to \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 fine-tuning operations. By the end of \up0 \expndtw-
5\charscalex100 June 2003 the Eurosystem had conducted \up0 \expndtw-
5\charscalex100 only eight fine-tuning operations, i.e. less \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 than two per year on average.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 In view of their purpose, fine-tuning
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 operations are normally executed \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 through \u8220?quick\u8221? tenders. These take
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 one hour from their announcement to \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 the communication of the allotment \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 results. Fine-tuning operations can \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 also be executed through bilateral \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 procedures, where the Eurosystem \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 conducts a transaction with one or a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 few counterparties without a tender.\par\pard\qj
\li1700\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 The potential need for rapid action \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 in the event of unexpected market \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 developments makes it desirable for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 the Eurosystem to retain a high degree \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 of flexibility in the specification of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 fine-tuning operations. They are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 normally executed in a decentralised \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 manner by the NCBs, but the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Governing Council can decide, under \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 exceptional circumstances, to have \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 bilateral fine-tuning operations \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 executed by the ECB. For operational \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 reasons, only a limited number of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 selected counterparties may participate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 in fine-tuning operations.\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Structural operations\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The
operational framework also \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 provides the
Eurosystem with the \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 84\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 possibility of conducting \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \u8220?structural\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 operations\u8221?. Such operations seek to
\line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 adjust the structural liquidity position of
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the Eurosystem vis-�-vis the banking\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 system, i.e. the
amount of liquidity in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the market over the
longer term. These \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 operations could be conducted
using\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
reverse transactions, outright operations \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 or the
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the end of June 2003 the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 Eurosystem had not conducted any such \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 operations aimed at influencing the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 structural liquidity position of the\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 banking
system.\par\pard\qj \li5102\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 In principle, structural operations can
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 be liquidity-providing or liquidity-\line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 absorbing operations and their\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 frequency can be
regular or non-\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 regular. Structural operations
could be \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 executed through standard
tenders\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
and their maturity would not be \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
standardised. Structural operations \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 could be
executed in a decentralised\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex122 manner, and all counterparties \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 fulfilling general eligibility criteria \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 would be allowed to participate.\par\pard\ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb79\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
7\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 4.5 STANDING FACILITIES\par\pard\ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb66\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 As mentioned above, the
Eurosystem\tab
\up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
Marginal\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
lending and\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 also implements monetary policy by\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 deposit\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
140\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
setting the interest rates on its standing\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 facilities are\u8230?\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 facilities. Standing facilities provide or \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 absorb liquidity with an overnight \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 maturity on the initiative of\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 counterparties. Two
standing facilities \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 are available to eligible
counterparties: \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 the marginal lending facility
and the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
deposit facility. There is little incentive \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 for
banks to use standing facilities as \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 the interest
rates applied to them are\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 normally unfavourable when compared \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 with market rates.\par\pard\ql \li20\sb203\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Chart 4.3 shows the average daily
use\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?important
in\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of the standing facilities from January\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 exceptional\par\pard\ql
\li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
circumstances...\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 1999 to June \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 2003. This mostly
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{\bkmkend Pg86}\par\pard\ql \li1772\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1772\sb0\sl-
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218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Chart
4.3\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Recourse to standing facilities from January 1999
to June 2003 \par\pard\ql \li1772\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1772\sb109\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf26\f27\fs13 (EUR
billions; averages of daily positions over the maintenance period) \par\pard\ql
\li2499\sb119\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 marginal lending facility \par\pard\ql
\li2499\sb19\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 deposit facility
\par\pard\li1828\sb96\sl-161\slmult0\fi35\tx7943 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
6.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 6.0\par\pard\li1828\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1828\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1828\sb32\sl-
161\slmult0\fi35\tx7943 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 4.0\par\pard\li1828\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1828\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1828\sb31\sl-161\slmult0\fi35\tx7943 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 2.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2.0\par\pard\li1828\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1828\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1828\sb33\sl-
161\slmult0\fi35\tx7943 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 0.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 0.0\par\pard\li1828\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1828\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1828\sb21\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7907 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 -2.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 -2.0\par\pard\li1828\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1828\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1828\sb32\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7907 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 -4.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 -4.0\par\pard\li711\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li711\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li711\sb32\sl-161\slmult0\fi1116\tx7907 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 -6.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 -6.0\par\pard\li711\sb11\sl-
161\slmult0\fi1290\tx2646\tx3301\tx3945\tx4601\tx5245\tx5900\tx6545\tx7200 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\par\pard\li711\sb1\sl-
135\slmult0\fi1912\tx3923\tx5223\tx6522\tx7436 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
1999\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 2000\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
2001\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 2002\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
2003\par\pard\li711\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li711\sb5\sl-161\slmult0\fi1004
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Source:
ECB.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\col
sr160\colno3\colw4677\colsr160\ql \li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li711\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li711\sb49\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 ...and at the\par\pard\ql
\li855\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 end of the\par\pard\ql
\li1066\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 reserve\par\pard\ql
\li714\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 maintenance\par\pard\ql
\li1118\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 period\par\pard\column
\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb77\sl-218\slmult0\tx1975\tx2486
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 remained below\tab
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf44\f45\fs19
\u8364?\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 1\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115
billion,\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
demonstrating that they serve only to \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 provide and
absorb liquidity in \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 exceptional circumstances. The
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 introduction of the euro at the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 beginning of 1999 and the transition \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 to the year \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 2000 were examples
of\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 such
exceptional circumstances, and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 explain the relatively
high level of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 recourse to the marginal lending
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 facility in the maintenance periods \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 ending in February 1999\ul0\super\cf25\f26\fs20
12\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and January \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 2000
respectively.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Chart 4.4 reflects the
typical pattern of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 recourse to the standing
facilities \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 within a reserve maintenance
period. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 As can be seen from the chart, the
use \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 of the standing facilities is largest at
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 the end of the reserve maintenance \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 period. This is due to the averaging \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 mechanism of the minimum reserve \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex124 system, which allows credit \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 institutions to run daily liquidity\par\pard\column \ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb77\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 deficits and surpluses and either bring\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 forward the
fulfilment of reserve \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 requirements or postpone
it until the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 end of the maintenance period.
As\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
previously noted, reserve requirements \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 become
binding only on the last day of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 the maintenance
period when liquidity\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 deficits or surpluses can no longer be \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 compensated by opposite imbalances \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 within the same maintenance period.\par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb79\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
7\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 4.6 CENTRAL BANK LIQUIDITY
AND\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1588\sb8\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 THE
LIQUIDITY NEEDS OF THE BANKING \up0 \expndtw-6\charscalex100 SYSTEM\par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 To sum up, the operational
framework\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
Eurosystem as\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex126 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 is the set of instruments
and\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 a supplier
of\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
liquidity\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 procedures which a central bank uses\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 to steer interest
rates, manage liquidity \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 in the money market
and signal \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 monetary policy intentions through
the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
ECB\u8217?s key interest rates set by the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
Governing Council. The euro area \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 banking
system - on account of its \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb130\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs15\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 12
\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 The first maintenance period was longer than normal,
starting on 1 January 1999 and ending on 23 February 1999.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 85
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7152\shptop3695\shpright7228\shpbottom3880\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7152\shptop3695\shpright7228\shpbottom3880\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7152\shptop3695\shpright7152\shpbottom3880\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7339\shptop3695\shpright7412\shpbottom3927\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7339\shptop3695\shpright7412\shpbottom3927\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7339\shptop3695\shpright7339\shpbottom3927\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7524\shptop3695\shpright7599\shpbottom3914\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn fLine}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn lineType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fArrowheadsOK}{\sv 1}}
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7524\shptop3695\shpright7599\shpbottom3914\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7524\shptop3695\shpright7524\shpbottom3914\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7710\shptop3695\shpright7784\shpbottom4179\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn pVerticies}{\sv 8;4;(0,0);(74,0);(74,484);(0,484)}}
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7710\shptop3695\shpright7784\shpbottom4179\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7710\shptop3695\shpright7710\shpbottom4179\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2086\shptop3695\shpright7839\shpbottom3695\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2272\shptop4995\shpright2272\shpbottom4969\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2088\shptop4995\shpright2088\shpbottom4969\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2458\shptop4995\shpright2458\shpbottom4969\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2643\shptop4995\shpright2643\shpbottom4969\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2829\shptop4995\shpright2829\shpbottom4969\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3014\shptop4995\shpright3014\shpbottom4969\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3201\shptop4995\shpright3201\shpbottom4969\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3385\shptop4995\shpright3385\shpbottom4969\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3756\shptop4995\shpright3756\shpbottom4969\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3942\shptop4995\shpright3942\shpbottom4969\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6781\shptop3622\shpright6857\shpbottom3695\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7152\shptop3541\shpright7228\shpbottom3695\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg88}
{\bkmkend Pg88}\par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb206\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Table
4.3 \ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Central bank balance sheet structure \par\pard\ql
\li3213\sb81\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf54\f55\fs17 A standardised central bank balance
sheet:\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4943\colsr160\colno2\colw4677\c
olsr160\ql \li1758\sb61\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
Assets\par\pard\ql \li1758\sb34\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Refinancing to credit institutions\par\pard\ql
\li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb64\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Marginal lending facility\par\pard\ql \li1758\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Net foreign assets\par\pard\column \ql
\li20\sb61\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf54\f55\fs17 Liabilities\par\pard\ql \li20\ri1997\sb8\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Credit
institutions\u8217? holdings on \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 current accounts
(reserves) \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Deposit facility\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri2563\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Banknotes in
circulation \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Government deposits\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Other factors (net)
\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \ql \li3744\sb36\sl-195\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf54\f55\fs17 Can be rearranged as follows:
\par\pard\ql \li2738\ri2584\sb28\sl-240\slmult0\tx3506 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Liquidity supply through monetary policy
operations \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \u8220?refinancing to credit
institutions\u8221? \par\pard\ql \li3625\ri3470\sb20\sl-240\slmult0\tx3955 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 plus \u8220?marginal lending facility\u8221? \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 minus \u8220?deposit facility\u8221? \par\pard\ql
\li4706\sb58\sl-195\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf54\f55\fs17 equals \par\pard\ql \li4114\sb26\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Autonomous factors
\par\pard\qj \li3803\ri3649\sb16\sl-250\slmult0\fi54 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8220?banknotes in circulation\u8221? \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 plus \u8220?government deposits\u8221? \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 minus \u8220?net foreign assets\u8221? \par\pard\ql
\li3907\sb17\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 plus \u8220?other factors
(net)\u8221? \par\pard\ql \li4798\sb61\sl-195\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf54\f55\fs17 plus \par\pard\ql
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Reserves \par\pard\ql \li2858\sb42\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \u8220?credit institutions\u8217? holdings on current
accounts\u8221?\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\c
olw3251\colsr160\colno3\colw4677\colsr160\qj \li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li476\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li476\ri0\sb51\sl-180\slmult0\tx740 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Liquidity supply \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 and demand\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb147\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 overnight recourse to this
standing\par\pard\qj \li20\ri69\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
facility. Banknotes indicates the value \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 of the
banknotes put into circulation by \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the central
bank at the request of credit \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 institutions. This
is usually the largest \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 item on the liabilities
side. Government \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 deposits reflects the
existence of current \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 account balances held by
national \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 treasuries with NCBs. Finally, other
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 net factors is a balancing item \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 encompassing the remaining items on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 the balance sheet.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 From an accounting point of view, the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 respective amounts of total assets and \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 liabilities must always be equal. In \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 order to understand how a central bank \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 operates, it is convenient to split the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 balance sheet into three elements, as\par\pard\column
\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb147\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 indicated by the lower three panels of\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Table 4.3.\par\pard\qj
\li5103\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb8\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-3\charscalex100 As shown in the table, the net amount of \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 liquidity that is actually supplied by the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 central bank to credit institutions is the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 sum of two elements. The first element \line \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 is made up of the \u8220?autonomous factors\u8221? \line \up0
\expndtw-4\charscalex100 (the sum of banknotes in circulation plus \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 government deposits minus net foreign \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 assets plus other factors (net), which is \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 the net effect of the remaining balance \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 sheet items affecting money market \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 liquidity). These factors influence the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 liquidity of the banking system and are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 labelled \u8220?autonomous\u8221? in central bank \line
\up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100 jargon because they are not normally the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 result of the use of monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 instruments.\ul0\super\cf25\f26\fs20 13
\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \qj \li1702\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1585\sb65\sl-180\slmult0\tx1884\tx1884 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 13 Some of the autonomous factors are not under the control
of the monetary authorities (banknotes in circulation \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 and government deposits). Other factors, such as net
foreign assets, can be controlled by the monetary \line \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 authorities, but transactions in these assets are not
normally related to monetary policy operations (except in \par\pard\ql
\li1884\sb16\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 the case of foreign
exchange swaps; see Box 4.2). \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 87
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg89}
{\bkmkend Pg89}\par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb206\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Table
4.4 \ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Contributions to the banking system\u8217?s
liquidity \par\pard\ql \li1757\sb100\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf33\f34\fs14 (EUR billions; daily average stocks from 24 May 2003
to 23 June 2003) \par\pard\li458\sb124\sl-184\slmult0\fi4942\tx6365\tx7820 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf34\f35\fs15 Liquidity-\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Liquidity-\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
Net\par\pard\li458\sb16\sl-184\slmult0\fi4976\tx6377\tx7183 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 providing\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 absorbing\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 contribution\par\pard\li458\sb16\sl-
184\slmult0\fi5093\tx6229 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 (Assets)\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 (Liabilities)\par\pard\li458\sb47\sl-207\slmult0\fi1298
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf54\f55\fs17 Monetary policy
operations of the Eurosystem\par\pard\li458\sb34\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1298\tx5660\tx6991\tx7445 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Main refinancing operations\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 194.7\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 -\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 + 194.7\par\pard\li458\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1298\tx5764\tx6991\tx7549 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Longer-term
refinancing operations\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 45.0\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 -\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 +
45.0\par\pard\li458\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi1298\tx5868\tx6832\tx7824 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Other open market operations\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 0.0\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 0.0\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 0.0\par\pard\li458\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1298\tx5868\tx6832\tx7653 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Standing
facilities\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 0.4\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
0.3\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 + 0.1\par\pard\li458\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1298\tx5661\tx6832\tx7446 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Total
(a)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 240.1\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 0.3\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 + 239.8\par\pard\li458\sb42\sl-207\slmult0\fi1298 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf54\f55\fs17 Autonomous factors affecting
the banking\par\pard\li458\sb3\sl-207\slmult0\fi1298 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
system\u8217?s liquidity\par\pard\li458\sb34\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1298\tx6027\tx6624\tx7490 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Banknotes in circulation\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 -\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 373.2\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 - 373.2\par\pard\li458\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1298\tx6027\tx6728\tx7593 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Government
deposits with the Eurosystem\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 -\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 52.6\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 -
52.6\par\pard\li458\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi1298\tx5660\tx6991\tx7445 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Net foreign assets\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
331.3\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 -\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 +
331.3\par\pard\li458\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi1298\tx6027\tx6728\tx7593 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Other factors (net)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
-\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 13.2\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 -
13.2\par\pard\li458\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi1298\tx5661\tx6625\tx7490 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Total (b)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 331.3\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 439.0\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 -
107.7\par\pard\li458\sb42\sl-207\slmult0\fi1298 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
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current\par\pard\li458\sb3\sl-207\slmult0\fi2244 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
accounts with the Eurosystem\par\pard\li458\sb34\sl-218\slmult0\fi1298\tx7617
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf35\f36\fs19 Required reserves
(c)\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 131.5\par\pard\li458\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\fi1298\tx7824 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Excess reserves (d)\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 0.6\par\pard\li458\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\fi1298\tx7617
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Total (a)+(b), (c)+(d)\tab \up0
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ECB.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4942\colsr160\colno2\colw4678\col
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The second element is made up of
credit\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
institutions\u8217?reserves (credit institutions\u8217?\par\pard\ql
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accounts). The sum\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 of the autonomous factors plus the\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 reserves equals the supply
of liquidity\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
through monetary policy operations (the\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Contributions of\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Moving from this schematic analysis\par\pard\ql
\li540\sb1\sl-179\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 the main items\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 to the Eurosystem\u8217?s actual
balance\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb107\sl-218\slmult0\tx3215\tx3751 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 sheet, Table\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 4.4\tab
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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 contributions of the main items to the\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 banking system\u8217?s
liquidity in the\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 reserve maintenance period from\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 24 May 2003 to 23 June
2003. The\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 bulk
of the liquidity was provided\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex126 through the main refinancing\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 operations. Additional
liquidity was\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
provided through the longer-term\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 refinancing operations. Standing\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 facilities and other
operations, such as \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 88\par\pard\column \ql \li20\sb191\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 fine-tuning operations,
normally have\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 only a marginal impact on the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 banking system\u8217?s liquidity.\par\pard\qj
\li5102\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 The second part of Table 4.4 shows \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 the autonomous factors. The liquidity-\line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 absorbing effect of autonomous factors \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 is mainly generated by banknotes in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 circulation and government deposits \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 with the Eurosystem. Banknotes in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex121 circulation absorb the banking \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 system\u8217?s liquidity because they have to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 be obtained from the central bank, and \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 credit institutions have to borrow funds \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 from the central bank because of this. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 There is also a counter-effect on the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 banking system\u8217?s liquidity relating to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 the net foreign assets held by the \line \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex116 assets by the Eurosystem inject \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 liquidity into the banking system and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 reduce the need for liquidity-providing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 monetary policy operations. Required
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg90}
{\bkmkend Pg90}\par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb206\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Chart
4.5\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Volume of the main and longer-term refinancing
operations \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb109\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf26\f27\fs13 (EUR
billions; averages of daily positions over the maintenance period) \par\pard\ql
\li2486\sb139\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 outstanding main refinancing operations (MRO)
\par\pard\qj \li2486\ri4268\sb4\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
outstanding longer-term refinancing operations (LTRO) \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
total refinancing operations \par\pard\li1831\sb99\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7869
\up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 300\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
300\par\pard\li1831\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1831\sb85\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7869 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 250\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 250\par\pard\li1831\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1831\sb84\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7869 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 200\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 200\par\pard\li1831\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1831\sb87\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7869 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 150\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 150\par\pard\li1831\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1831\sb84\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7869 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 100\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 100\par\pard\li1831\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1831\sb85\sl-
161\slmult0\fi51\tx7876 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 50\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 50\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb84\sl-
161\slmult0\fi232\tx7877 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 0\par\pard\li1702\sb1\sl-
150\slmult0\fi290\tx2620\tx3258\tx3886\tx4525\tx5153\tx5792\tx6419\tx7058 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\par\pard\li1702\sb1\sl-
137\slmult0\fi895\tx3864\tx5131\tx6397\tx7326 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
1999\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 2000\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
2001\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 2002\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
2003\par\pard\li1702\sb134\sl-161\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Source:
ECB.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw4943\colsr160\colno2\colw3188\col
sr110\colno3\colw1389\colsr160\ql \li613\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb61\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 reserves have a liquidity-absorbing\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 effect which is similar in
size to that\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
of all the autonomous factors taken\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 together. The difference between\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 credit institutions\u8217?
holdings on current\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 accounts with the Eurosystem and\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 reserve requirements makes
up the\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 excess
reserves (which generally have\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 been very low at around \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
0.5% of\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
required reserves in the euro area).\par\pard\ql \li613\sb0\sl-184\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1020\sb127\sl-184\slmult0\tx1697 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Relative\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Charts 4.5 and 4.6 show how the main\par\pard\ql
\li613\sb1\sl-179\slmult0\tx1697 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 importance of\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 liquidity-providing and liquidity-\par\pard\ql
\li928\sb50\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 liquidity-\par\pard\ql \li926\sb11\sl-
180\slmult0\tx1697 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 providing\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 absorbing factors developed
from\par\pard\ql \li1085\sb1\sl-179\slmult0\tx1697 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 factors\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 January 1999 to June 2003. Chart 4.5\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb69\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 shows that the bulk of the
liquidity\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 was
provided through the main\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 refinancing operations, reflecting the\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 key role played by
this monetary\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
policy instrument. Additional liquidity\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 was provided through the longer-term\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 refinancing operations. As
can be seen\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
from Chart 4.5, this amount ranged\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 between \ul0\nosupersub\cf44\f45\fs19
\u8364?\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 45 and \ul0\nosupersub\cf44\f45\fs19
\u8364?\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 75 billion over the\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 period under
consideration.\par\pard\column \ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb61\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 Chart 4.6 shows the
development of\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 the two main factors that create a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 structural liquidity deficit in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 banking system. Reserve requirements \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 have usually accounted for more than \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 half of the total liquidity needs of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 banking system. The total liquidity-\line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 absorbing effect of autonomous factors \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 has varied more over time, reflecting in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 particular the large decrease in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 banknotes in circulation before the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 cash changeover in January 2002 and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 the significant rebound afterwards.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri197\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-8\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 4.7 EXPERIENCE FROM JANUARY 1999 \up0 \expndtw-
6\charscalex100 TO JUNE 2003\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb190\sl-250\slmult0\tx2125 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The Eurosystem\u8217?s
operational \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 framework has been functioning well
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex130 since the start of \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 1999. The\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 operational framework has generally \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 allowed the ECB to steer liquidity \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 conditions and short-term interest \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 rates in a smooth fashion. The only \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 exceptions were a few occasions of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 underbidding and overbidding in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 main refinancing operations. However, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 the average volatility of short-term
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
89\par\pard\column \ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb143\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
Relative\par\pard\qj \li20\ri408\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
importance of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 liquidity-\par\pard\ql \li20\sb7\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 absorbing\par\pard\ql \li20\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 factors\par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li20\ri254\sb114\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Low volatility of
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 short-term\par\pard\ql \li20\sb7\sl-172\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 interest rates
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2098\shptop2594\shpright2098\shpbottom5036\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2098\shptop5092\shpright2098\shpbottom5036\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2729\shptop5064\shpright2729\shpbottom5036\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3991\shptop5064\shpright3991\shpbottom5036\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4623\shptop5092\shpright4623\shpbottom5036\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5253\shptop5064\shpright5253\shpbottom5036\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5884\shptop5092\shpright5884\shpbottom5036\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6517\shptop5064\shpright6517\shpbottom5036\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7147\shptop5098\shpright7147\shpbottom5036\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7778\shptop5064\shpright7778\shpbottom5036\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2150\shptop2957\shpright7725\shpbottom3700\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2100\shptop2326\shpright2384\shpbottom2326\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2100\shptop1969\shpright2384\shpbottom1969\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2114\shptop2147\shpright2397\shpbottom2147\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2137\shptop3325\shpright7727\shpbottom4135\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2137\shptop4424\shpright7669\shpbottom4772\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1701\shptop5417\shpright8221\shpbottom5417\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz690\shplid57{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 15742976}}{\sp{\sn
lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg91}
{\bkmkend Pg91}\par\pard\ql \li1775\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1775\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1775\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1775\sb46\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Chart
4.6\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Required reserves and autonomous liquidity
factors \par\pard\ql \li1775\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1775\sb109\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf26\f27\fs13 (EUR
billions; averages of daily positions over the maintenance period) \par\pard\ql
\li2507\sb159\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 reserve requirements \par\pard\ql \li2507\sb29\sl-
149\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 autonomous
factors\ul0\super\cf19\f20\fs14 1) \par\pard\ql \li2507\sb22\sl-161\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 total liquidity needs
of the banking system \par\pard\li1838\sb110\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7895 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 300\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
300\par\pard\li1838\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1838\sb98\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7899 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 250\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 250\par\pard\li1838\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1838\sb98\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7895 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 200\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 200\par\pard\li1838\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1838\sb97\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7885 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 150\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 150\par\pard\li1838\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1838\sb98\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7882 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 100\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 100\par\pard\li1838\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1838\sb98\sl-
161\slmult0\fi51\tx7889 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 50\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 50\par\pard\li1940\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1940\sb96\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7896 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 0\par\pard\li1940\sb3\sl-
161\slmult0\fi76\tx2641\tx3284\tx3909\tx4551\tx5176\tx5819\tx6444\tx7086 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\par\pard\li1940\sb1\sl-
135\slmult0\fi678\tx3886\tx5154\tx6422\tx7346 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
1999\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2000\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
2001\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2002\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
2003\par\pard\li463\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li463\sb4\sl-161\slmult0\fi1254
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Source: ECB.\par\pard\li463\sb19\sl-161\slmult0\fi1254
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 1) Autonomous factors include banknotes in circulation
plus government deposits plus other factors less net
foreign\par\pard\li463\sb19\sl-161\slmult0\fi1414 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
assets.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols3\colno1\colw1590\colsr110\colno2\colw3252\
colsr160\colno3\colw4678\colsr160\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li463\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li534\sb60\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Clear signalling\par\pard\qj
\li463\ri0\sb2\sl-180\slmult0\tx678 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 of the monetary
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 policy stance\par\pard\column \ql
\li20\sb122\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 interest rates in the euro area money\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 market in the first
years of Stage Three \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 of EMU has remained low
by \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 international standards. This low \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 volatility of short-term money market \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 rates was achieved with very little \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 recourse to fine-tuning operations, i.e. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 almost entirely through a combination \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 of a minimum reserve system with an \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 averaging provision and weekly open \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 market operations.\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-
249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
Stable money market conditions are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 helpful for
the efficient transmission \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 of monetary policy to
the economy. In \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 addition, they reflect a high
degree of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 credibility of the operative
and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 liquidity management capabilities of
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the central bank.\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
The conduct of fixed rate tender \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 operations
in the main refinancing \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 operations until June
2000 facilitated \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 the clear signalling of the
monetary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 policy stance. This positive assessment
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 of clear signalling has also been valid \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 for the variable rate tender procedure
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
90\par\pard\column \ql \li20\sb182\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 with a minimum bid rate applied as\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 from June \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 2000. This system has\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 worked well, as indicated by the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 relatively small spread between the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 marginal rate of allotment and the\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 minimum bid rate.
Moreover, the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 volatility of short-term money
market \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 rates has been kept as low as it
was\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 during the
period of fixed rate tenders.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb64\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 Finally,
the operational framework -\tab \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Flexible\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 with both weekly main
refinancing\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14
operational\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
framework\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 operations and monthly longer-term\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 refinancing operations
- has met the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 objectives of both providing
longer-\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 term liquidity to credit
institutions\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 and providing the Eurosystem with \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 sufficient flexibility to steer liquidity \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 developments with adequate precision\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1499\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 in the short term.
The operational \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 framework has also proved
robust \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 when faced with a series of
exceptional\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 challenges, e.g. the transition to the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 year 2000 and the terrorist attacks of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 11 September 2001, and has shown a\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1499\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 very high degree
of flexibility to deal \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 with unforeseen circumstances.
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}}
{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2171\shptop2842\shpright7641\shpbottom3586\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2119\shptop2462\shpright2119\shpbottom4980\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7798\shptop2462\shpright7798\shpbottom4980\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2119\shptop4980\shpright7798\shpbottom4980\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2119\shptop5037\shpright2119\shpbottom4980\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4012\shptop5009\shpright4012\shpbottom4980\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6537\shptop5009\shpright6537\shpbottom4980\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7168\shptop5037\shpright7168\shpbottom4980\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7798\shptop5009\shpright7798\shpbottom4980\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2118\shptop2201\shpright2401\shpbottom2201\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2118\shptop1845\shpright2401\shpbottom1845\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2163\shptop3824\shpright7610\shpbottom4652\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1867\sb147\sl-380\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex97
\ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs29 5 THE CONDUCT OF MONETARY POLICY IN THE \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex96 FIRST YEARS OF THE SINGLE MONETARY POLICY \par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-252\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1534\sb154\sl-252\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf14\f15\fs20 This chapter illustrates how
monetary policy was conducted in the euro area \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
between 1999 and mid-2003. Over this period the euro area was confronted \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 with a host of economic shocks whose nature, size and
persistence varied over \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 time. Against this
backdrop, the Governing Council took its monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 decisions with a clear focus on the need to maintain price
stability over the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 medium
term.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols4\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\co
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Governing\par\pard\ql \li1066\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
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meetings\par\pard\ql \li678\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
assessing the\par\pard\ql \li471\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
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207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb125\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 5.1 INTRODUCTION\par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb8\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Since the beginning of Stage
Three of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 EMU in 1999 the conduct of monetary
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 policy in the euro area has been guided \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 by the overriding objective of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 maintaining price stability over the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 medium term. In assessing risks to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 price stability in the euro area, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Governing Council has always relied \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 on the framework as laid down in its \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 monetary policy strategy, implying \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 a comprehensive analysis of both \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 economic and monetary trends in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 euro area (see Chapter 3).\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-
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In the first years of Monetary Union \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 the
Governing Council assessed the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 monetary policy
stance at meetings \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 held every two weeks. In
November \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 2001, however, the Governing Council
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 decided that henceforth, it would - as \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 a rule - assess the monetary policy \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 stance only at its first meeting of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 month. Accordingly, it was announced \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 that interest rate decisions would \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 normally be taken during that meeting, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 while at the second meeting of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 month the Governing Council would \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 focus on issues related to the other \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 tasks and responsibilities of the ECB \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 and the Eurosystem.\par\pard\column \ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb94\sl-
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be\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
distinguished as regards the direction \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 of monetary
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4.1). At \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 the start of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
1999 a combination of\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
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\expndtw0\charscalex106 the countries joining the euro area in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 1998 increased downward risks to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 price stability in the euro area. In \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 reaction to this, the Governing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 Council decided in April \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
1999 to\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119
reduce the fixed rate on the main \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 refinancing
operations to 2.5%.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 Later, between the summer of 1999 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 and late 2000, inflationary pressures \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 gradually mounted in a context of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 strong economic growth, increasing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 import price pressures driven by rising \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 oil prices and a weakening exchange \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 rate, and high monetary growth. In \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 this context, the Governing Council \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 gradually increased its key interest \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 rates by a total of 225 basis points \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 from November 1999 to October 2000.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb190\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 Subsequently, following a period of
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evidence\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
increasingly supported the view that \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
inflationary pressures were gradually \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 abating.
The main factors reducing \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Three phases\par\pard\ql \li20\sb8\sl-172\slmult0
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\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri494\sb88\sl-180\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 \u8230?summer of \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 1999
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\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 the key ECB interest rates
by \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 275\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 basis points between May 2001 and\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 June 2003. The challenges
faced by\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 the
single monetary policy in its first\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 four and a half years are explained in\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 more detail in the next
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 responsibility for monetary policy in\par\pard\ql
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stability had been achieved in the\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
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\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 allowing the Governing
Council to\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116
start its operations at a time when\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 interest rates were already at very low\par\pard\column \ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 levels. The first interest rate on the\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 main refinancing
operations was set at \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 3%, with the rates on the
marginal \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 lending and deposit facilities set
at \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 4.5% and 2% respectively. These rates
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 were announced on \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
22 December\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
1998, following the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 3 December\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 coordinated reduction of
key interest \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 rates by all the NCBs of the
countries \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 set to adopt the euro from the
outset.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb59\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 In the first quarter of \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 1999 price\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 developments remained subdued, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 mainly on account of the effects of \line \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 earlier positive supply shocks related, in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 particular, to the fall in oil prices and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 deregulation in the services sector. In \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 early 1999 HICP inflation was below \line \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 1% (see Chart 5.1). In this low-inflation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 environment, downside risks to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 economic growth emerged as a \line \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 consequence of weaker external demand \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 stemming from the Asian crisis of late \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 1997 and the drop in confidence that \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 followed the financial market turmoil \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 after the Russian crisis of the summer\par\pard\column
\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb49\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Downward risks\par\pard\ql \li20\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 to price\par\pard\qj \li20\ri485\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 stability in \line \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 early 1999\u8230? \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \ql \li1757\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb30\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Chart
5.1\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 HICP inflation \par\pard\ql \li1757\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1757\sb109\sl-161\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf26\f27\fs13 (annual percentage
changes) \par\pard\ql \li2452\sb119\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 HICP - overall index \par\pard\ql \li2452\sb19\sl-
161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 HICP excluding unprocessed food and
energy \par\pard\li1814\sb117\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7938 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 3.5\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 3.5\par\pard\li1814\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1814\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1814\sb11\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7938 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 3.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 3.0\par\pard\li1814\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1814\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1814\sb10\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7938 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 2.5\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2.5\par\pard\li1814\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1814\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1814\sb11\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7938 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 2.0\par\pard\li1814\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1814\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1814\sb10\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7933 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 1.5\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 1.5\par\pard\li1814\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1814\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1814\sb10\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7938 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 1.0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 1.0\par\pard\li1814\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1814\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1814\sb10\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7938 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 0.5\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 0.5\par\pard\li1814\sb0\sl-
160\slmult0\fi138\tx2482\tx3004\tx3534\tx4057\tx4587\tx5108\tx5638\tx6160\tx6690\tx
7212 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\par\pard\li1814\sb1\sl-
135\slmult0\fi646\tx3512\tx4564\tx5616\tx6668\tx7481 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
1998\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 1999\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
2000\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2001\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
2002\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2003\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb45\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
Source: Eurostat. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 92
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oil prices \par\pard\ql \li1758\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1758\sb109\sl-
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2\charscalex100 Brent crude oil (in USD per barrel) (right-hand scale)
\par\pard\li1815\sb99\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7958 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
110\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 40\par\pard\li1815\sb0\sl-
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2\charscalex100 105\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 35\par\pard\ql
\li7958\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li7958\sb58\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 30 \par\pard\ql \li1815\sb1\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 100 \par\pard\ql \li7958\sb104\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 25 \par\pard\li1872\sb58\sl-161\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw-
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2\charscalex100 15\par\pard\li1872\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1872\sb21\sl-
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2\charscalex100 10\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb151\sl-
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1\charscalex100 5\par\pard\li1702\sb1\sl-
152\slmult0\fi275\tx2505\tx3024\tx3552\tx4071\tx4598\tx5118\tx5645\tx6164\tx6692\tx
7211 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\par\pard\li1702\sb1\sl-
137\slmult0\fi781\tx3530\tx4576\tx5623\tx6670\tx7486 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
1998\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 1999\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
2000\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 2001\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
2002\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 2003\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb96\sl-161\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
Sources: ECB and Reuters.\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
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\expndtw0\charscalex108 clear that risks to price stability over\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 the opposite direction. Despite
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\par\pard\ql\li1758\sb129\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
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2\charscalex100 10\par\pard\li1832\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1832\sb44\sl-
161\slmult0\fi57\tx7950 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 8\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 8\par\pard\li1832\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1832\sb44\sl-
161\slmult0\fi57\tx7950 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 6\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 6\par\pard\li1832\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1832\sb45\sl-
161\slmult0\fi57\tx7950 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 4\par\pard\li1832\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1832\sb44\sl-
161\slmult0\fi57\tx7950 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 2\par\pard\li1889\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1889\sb45\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0\tx7950 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 0\tab \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 0\par\pard\li1889\sb0\sl-
157\slmult0\fi30\tx2454\tx2980\tx3514\tx4041\tx4575\tx5102\tx5636\tx6163\tx6697\tx7
222 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\par\pard\li1889\sb1\sl-
136\slmult0\fi542\tx3492\tx4553\tx5614\tx6675\tx7470 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
1998\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 1999\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
2000\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2001\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
2002\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2003\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb40\sl-161\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
Source: ECB. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 93
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{\*\shpinst\shpleft9919\shptop13880\shpright9919\shpbottom13\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1701\shptop1012\shpright8221\shpbottom1012\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7838\shptop4006\shpright7895\shpbottom4006\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7838\shptop4413\shpright7895\shpbottom4413\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7838\shptop4819\shpright7895\shpbottom4819\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7829\shptop2778\shpright7887\shpbottom2778\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7829\shptop2385\shpright7886\shpbottom2385\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7829\shptop3183\shpright7887\shpbottom3183\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7829\shptop3593\shpright7887\shpbottom3593\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7829\shptop3998\shpright7887\shpbottom3998\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7829\shptop4404\shpright7887\shpbottom4404\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz141\shplid21{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 16777215}}{\sp{\sn
lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7829\shptop4811\shpright7887\shpbottom4811\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz141\shplid22{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 16777215}}{\sp{\sn
lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2072\shptop4748\shpright7837\shpbottom4748\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz177\shplid23{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 16229252}}{\sp{\sn
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2072\shptop4275\shpright7837\shpbottom4275\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2072\shptop3804\shpright7837\shpbottom3804\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz177\shplid25{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 16229252}}{\sp{\sn
lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2072\shptop3331\shpright7834\shpbottom3331\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2072\shptop2858\shpright7837\shpbottom2858\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2072\shptop2385\shpright7850\shpbottom2385\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2595\shptop5221\shpright2595\shpbottom2388\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3119\shptop5221\shpright3119\shpbottom2383\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz177\shplid30{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 16229252}}{\sp{\sn
lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3642\shptop5221\shpright3642\shpbottom2388\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz177\shplid31{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 16229252}}{\sp{\sn
lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4166\shptop5221\shpright4166\shpbottom2388\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4689\shptop5221\shpright4689\shpbottom2388\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz177\shplid33{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 16229252}}{\sp{\sn
lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5212\shptop5221\shpright5212\shpbottom2388\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz177\shplid34{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 16229252}}{\sp{\sn
lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5736\shptop5221\shpright5736\shpbottom2388\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz177\shplid35{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6259\shptop5221\shpright6259\shpbottom2388\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6782\shptop5221\shpright6782\shpbottom2388\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7306\shptop5221\shpright7306\shpbottom2388\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2081\shptop2393\shpright2081\shpbottom5230\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz184\shplid39{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn lineWidth}{\sv
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2081\shptop5230\shpright7845\shpbottom5230\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3128\shptop5298\shpright3128\shpbottom5232\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz208\shplid41{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn lineWidth}{\sv
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2604\shptop5270\shpright2604\shpbottom5232\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz208\shplid42{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3651\shptop5270\shpright3651\shpbottom5232\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
pbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz208\shplid43{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4175\shptop5298\shpright4175\shpbottom5232\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4698\shptop5270\shpright4698\shpbottom5232\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5221\shptop5298\shpright5221\shpbottom5232\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5745\shptop5270\shpright5745\shpbottom5232\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6268\shptop5298\shpright6268\shpbottom5232\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6791\shptop5270\shpright6791\shpbottom5232\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7315\shptop5298\shpright7315\shpbottom5232\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7840\shptop2391\shpright7840\shpbottom5230\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2072\shptop2385\shpright2072\shpbottom5221\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2072\shptop5221\shpright7837\shpbottom5221\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 16777215}}{\sp{\sn
lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3119\shptop5289\shpright3119\shpbottom5223\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
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}}
{\shp
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}}
{\shp
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}}
{\shp
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}}
{\shp
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}}
{\shp
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}}
{\shp
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6782\shptop5261\shpright6782\shpbottom5224\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7306\shptop5290\shpright7306\shpbottom5224\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7831\shptop2383\shpright7831\shpbottom5221\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2095\shptop4322\shpright2115\shpbottom4357\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2115\shptop2999\shpright7832\shpbottom4795\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2074\shptop1952\shpright2358\shpbottom1952\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2087\shptop2132\shpright2371\shpbottom2132\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3119\shptop5199\shpright3119\shpbottom2385\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2072\shptop5288\shpright2072\shpbottom5222\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1701\shptop5725\shpright8221\shpbottom5725\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1701\shptop5867\shpright8221\shpbottom6059\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1701\shptop7807\shpright8221\shpbottom8390\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1701\shptop8337\shpright8221\shpbottom8337\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1701\shptop7813\shpright8221\shpbottom7813\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1701\shptop8341\shpright8221\shpbottom12624\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\s
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geoRight}{\sv 6520}}{\sp{\sn geoBottom}{\sv 4283}}
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2032\shptop11784\shpright7876\shpbottom11784\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2032\shptop11417\shpright7876\shpbottom11417\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3093\shptop12150\shpright3093\shpbottom9219\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\s
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3623\shptop12150\shpright3623\shpbottom9219\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\s
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5743\shptop12150\shpright5743\shpbottom9219\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\s
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7334\shptop12150\shpright7334\shpbottom9219\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\s
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lineWidth}{\sv 5489}}
}}
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}}
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}}
{\shp
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{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn lineWidth}{\sv
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3101\shptop12224\shpright3101\shpbottom12160\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
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{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn lineWidth}{\sv
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3632\shptop12195\shpright3632\shpbottom12160\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4162\shptop12224\shpright4162\shpbottom12160\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
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{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn lineWidth}{\sv
18299}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4692\shptop12195\shpright4692\shpbottom12160\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
shpbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz658\shplid106{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn lineWidth}{\sv
18299}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5222\shptop12224\shpright5222\shpbottom12160\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
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18299}}
}}
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}}
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}}
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}}
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{\*\shpinst\shpleft2032\shptop9219\shpright2032\shpbottom12150\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\s
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
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{\*\shpinst\shpleft2032\shptop12150\shpright7865\shpbottom12150\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
{\shp
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3093\shptop12215\shpright3093\shpbottom12151\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
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{\shp
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft4684\shptop12187\shpright4684\shpbottom12151\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
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{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 16777215}}{\sp{\sn
lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5743\shptop12187\shpright5743\shpbottom12151\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
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{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 16777215}}{\sp{\sn
lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6274\shptop12215\shpright6274\shpbottom12151\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
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{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 16777215}}{\sp{\sn
lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
{\shp
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}}
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}
{\shp
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lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2047\shptop9516\shpright7821\shpbottom11841\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\s
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{\sp{\sn pVerticies}{\sv 8;67;(0,1303);(29,1242);(118,1200);(206,967);(294,710);
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(5596,575);(5685,530);(5774,534)}}
{\sp{\sn pSegmentInfo}{\sv
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{\sp{\sn lineType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fArrowheadsOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft7865\shptop9219\shpright7865\shpbottom12150\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\s
hpbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz772\shplid129{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}
{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn lineColor}{\sv 16777215}}{\sp{\sn
lineWidth}{\sv 18299}}
}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2048\shptop10228\shpright7821\shpbottom11341\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
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{\sp{\sn pSegmentInfo}{\sv
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2031\shptop8777\shpright2314\shpbottom8777\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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}}
{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2045\shptop8962\shpright2328\shpbottom8962\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3099\shptop12113\shpright3086\shpbottom9197\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\s
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1701\shptop12627\shpright8221\shpbottom12627\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1701\shptop12749\shpright8221\shpbottom12966\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\
shpbypage\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz961\shplid135
{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
geoRight}{\sv 6520}}{\sp{\sn geoBottom}{\sv 217}}
{\sp{\sn pVerticies}{\sv 8;4;(0,0);(6520,0);(6520,217);(0,217)}}
{\sp{\sn pSegmentInfo}{\sv 2;10;16384;45824;1;45824;1;45824;1;45824;24577;32768}}
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg95}
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2\charscalex100 9\par\pard\li1870\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1870\sb149\sl-
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2\charscalex100 7\par\pard\li1870\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1870\sb149\sl-
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2\charscalex100 6\par\pard\li1870\sb0\sl-161\slmult0\par\pard\li1870\sb148\sl-
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2\charscalex100 5\par\pard\li1870\sb73\sl-161\slmult0\fi898 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 4.5%\par\pard\li1870\sb76\sl-161\slmult0\fi0\tx7971 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 4\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4\par\pard\li1700\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1700\sb147\sl-161\slmult0\fi169\tx7971 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 3\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 3\par\pard\li1700\sb0\sl-
158\slmult0\fi201\tx2441\tx2973\tx3512\tx4044\tx4583\tx5115\tx5655\tx6187\tx6726\tx
7258 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Jan.\par\pard\li1700\sb1\sl-
136\slmult0\fi718\tx3490\tx4561\tx5633\tx6704\tx7497 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
1998\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 1999\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
2000\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 2001\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
2002\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 2003\par\pard\li1700\sb150\sl-
161\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Source:
ECB.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols2\colno1\colw4942\colsr160\colno2\colw4678\col
sr160\ql \li485\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb210\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Furthermore, oil prices
started to rise\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 as from mid-February, and the euro\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 depreciated slightly in
effective terms\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 in the first few months of the year (see\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Chart \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 5.2). Finally, over the same\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 period loans to the private sector
were\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 growing
at an annual rate of around\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 10% (see Chart 5.3) and M3 growth\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 was also clearly above
the ECB\u8217?s\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 reference value of \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
4\ul0\super\cf19\f20\fs15\ul0\super\cf19\f20\fs14 1\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
\u8260?\ul0\nosupersub\cf19\f20\fs9 2\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 % \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 (see Chart\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 5.4). Monetary developments were\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 nevertheless not seen
as implying\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
upward risks to price stability at that\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 time, partly because the deviations\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 from the reference value
were neither\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
significant nor protracted.\par\pard\ql \li485\sb0\sl-184\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li1016\sb130\sl-184\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 Key ECB\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 In view of these considerations, on\par\pard\ql
\li638\sb1\sl-179\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 interest rates\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 8 April 1999 the Governing Council\par\pard\ql
\li485\sb50\sl-120\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 were reduced in\par\pard\ql \li855\sb11\sl-
180\slmult0\tx1695 \up0 \expndtw-6\charscalex100 April 1999\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 decided to reduce the main
refinancing\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb1\sl-212\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
rate by \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 50 basis points to \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 2.5%.\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb34\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Simultaneously, the Council lowered\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 the rate on the
marginal lending\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 facility to 3.5% and that on the deposit\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 facility to 1.5%. These
decisions were\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
deemed appropriate as a precautionary
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
94\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb210\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 measure to
preserve price stability in\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 the medium term.\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb64\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 It
subsequently became clear as of\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 The economic\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 the
summer of 1999 that economic\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 environment\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 improved\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-
137\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex127 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
growth was set to accelerate\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 gradually from\par\pard\ql \li20\sb21\sl-
207\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
significantly in the second half of that\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 mid-1999,\u8230?\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb8\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 year and in
2000. Indeed, at that time \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 most real economic
indicators were \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 increasingly pointing to an
economic\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 upswing
(see Chart 5.5).\par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb64\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 In this context, developments
in\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?import
prices\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0\tx3313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 import prices increased price pressures\tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 increased
price\par\pard\ql \li3308\sb0\sl-135\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
pressures,\u8230?\par\pard\ql \li20\sb0\sl-152\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 in the euro area. Events on both the\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 supply and the demand
side of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 oil market led to a steady rise in
oil \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 prices between mid-1999 and
late\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 2000,
while the euro exchange rate \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex121 depreciated
significantly. As a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 consequence, annual HICP
inflation in\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 the euro area crept up gradually over \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 this period, reaching levels above 2%, \line \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 the upper bound of the ECB\u8217?s definition\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1498\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 of price stability.
Measures of HICP \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 inflation excluding unprocessed
food
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart Pg96}
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2\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf20\f21\fs19 Chart 5.5
\ul0\nosupersub\cf21\f22\fs19 Real GDP, industrial production and industrial
confidence for the \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 euro area
\par\pard\ql \li2428\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li2428\ri4622\sb17\sl-
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2\charscalex100 industrial confidence (monthly) (left-hand
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16\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4.5\par\pard\li1791\sb0\sl-
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2\charscalex100 12\tab \up2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 4.0\par\pard\li1791\sb101\sl-
161\slmult0\fi6117 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 3.5\par\pard\li1791\sb6\sl-
161\slmult0\fi96 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 8\par\pard\li1791\sb0\sl-
126\slmult0\fi6117 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 3.0\par\pard\li1791\sb90\sl-
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2\charscalex100 -4\par\pard\li1791\sb7\sl-161\slmult0\fi6117 \up0 \expndtw-
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161\slmult0\fi140\tx2459\tx2980\tx3506\tx4027\tx4554\tx5074\tx5601\tx6120\tx6648\tx
7167 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
July\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\par\pard\li1791\sb1\sl-
135\slmult0\fi645\tx3484\tx4531\tx5579\tx6626\tx7392 \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
1998\tab \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 1999\tab \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
2000\tab \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2001\tab \dn2 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
2002\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2003\par\pard\li1702\sb0\sl-
161\slmult0\par\pard\li1702\sb100\sl-161\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
Sources: Eurostat and European Commission Business and Consumer
surveys.\par\pard\li1702\sb19\sl-161\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 1)
Deviations from the average since January
1985.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols4\colno1\colw1592\colsr110\colno2\colw3251\co
lsr160\colno3\colw3188\colsr110\colno4\colw1389\colsr160\ql \li666\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li666\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li890\sb6\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?and
the\par\pard\ql \li914\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
monetary\par\pard\ql \li893\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
expansion\par\pard\ql \li1054\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
became\par\pard\ql \li666\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
entrenched\u8230?\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb190\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and energy remained at relatively\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 low levels during this
period despite \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 relatively buoyant economic
growth. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 However, there were increasing
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 concerns that inflationary pressures \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex119 from import prices could have \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 secondary effects via wage and price-\line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 setting behaviour and thus lead to an \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 increase in the long-term inflation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 expectations of the public at large (see \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Chart 5.6).\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-249\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 Another
cause for concern was the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 fact that annual
monetary growth \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 continued to increase
significantly \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 in late \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 1999 and early \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 2000
and\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
eventually reached levels above 6%. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 The
protracted monetary expansion \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 indicated that
abundant liquidity had \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 been progressively
accumulated. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Furthermore, the annual rate of
growth \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 of loans to the private sector
continued \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 to hover at a rate of around
10%.\par\pard\column \ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb190\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex128 Against this background,
the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Governing
Council increased the key \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 ECB interest rates in
a series of steps \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 between November 1999 and
October \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 2000 by a total of 225 basis points.
By \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 late \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 2000 these
decisions left the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 minimum bid rate on the main \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 refinancing operations\ul0\super\cf25\f26\fs20
14\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 at 4.75%, and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
the rates on the deposit and marginal \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 lending
facilities at 3.75% and 5.75% \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
respectively.\par\pard\qj \li5103\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb2\sl-
249\slmult0\tx1733\tx2465 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 Having declined continuously
since \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 late 1998, the euro exchange rate had
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 become increasingly out of line with \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 the sound fundamentals of the euro \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 area and risked generating significant \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 misalignments, \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 with
\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 adverse\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb1\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 implications for the world economy
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 and for price stability in the euro area.
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 The depreciation of the euro was \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 therefore addressed at the level of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex118 G7 on 22 September 2000, at the\par\pard\column \ql
\li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li20\sb97\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 \u8230?which led to\par\pard\ql \li20\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 gradual\par\pard\qj \li20\ri251\sb2\sl-
180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 increases in the \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 key ECB interest \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
rates\par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li20\ri336\sb125\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Intervention in
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 the foreign\par\pard\ql \li20\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-3\charscalex100 exchange\par\pard\qj \li20\ri284\sb2\sl-180\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 markets in the \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
autumn of 2000 \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \qj \li1702\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1586\sb27\sl-
180\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14
14\ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 In June 2000 the ECB moved from a fixed rate
tender to a variable rate tender with a minimum bid rate (MBR) \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 on its main refinancing operations.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw314 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 95
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2033\shptop1796\shpright2316\shpbottom1851\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2034\shptop2184\shpright2317\shpbottom2184\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2205\shptop2871\shpright2293\shpbottom5074\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft2205\shptop5074\shpright2205\shpbottom2871\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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}}

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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\shp
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{\shp
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\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 July\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 Jan.\par\pard\li1814\sb1\sl-
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1999\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2000\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
2001\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 2002\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
2003\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-161\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb52\sl-161\slmult0
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index-\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 linked bond. It is calculated as the
difference between the nominal yield on a standard bond and the real yield \line
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\shp
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{\sp{\sn fFillOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fFilled}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fillColor}{\sv
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6270\shptop3240\shpright6317\shpbottom3286\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn pVerticies}{\sv 8;5;(24,0);(47,23);(24,46);(0,23);(24,0)}}
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6911\shptop3165\shpright6958\shpbottom3211\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn pVerticies}{\sv 8;5;(23,0);(47,23);(23,46);(0,23);(23,0)}}
{\sp{\sn pSegmentInfo}{\sv
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{\sp{\sn fFillOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fFilled}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fillColor}{\sv
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6911\shptop3165\shpright6958\shpbottom3211\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn lineType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fArrowheadsOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fBehindDocument}
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}}

{\shp
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn pVerticies}{\sv 8;5;(23,0);(46,23);(23,46);(0,23);(23,0)}}
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}}

{\shp
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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}}

{\shp
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn fFillOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fFilled}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fillColor}{\sv 153}}
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}}

{\shp
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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}}

{\shp
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{\sp{\sn fFillOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fFilled}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fillColor}{\sv 153}}
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft3492\shptop3278\shpright3538\shpbottom3323\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn pSegmentInfo}{\sv
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{\sp{\sn fFillOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fFilled}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn lineWidth}{\sv 17567}}
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}}

{\shp
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn fFillOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fFilled}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fillColor}{\sv 153}}
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}}

{\shp
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5095\shptop3270\shpright5140\shpbottom3315\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn fFillOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fFilled}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fillColor}{\sv 153}}
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5095\shptop3270\shpright5140\shpbottom3315\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn pSegmentInfo}{\sv
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{\sp{\sn fFillOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fFilled}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn lineWidth}{\sv 17567}}
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5416\shptop3257\shpright5462\shpbottom3302\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn pVerticies}{\sv 8;9;(46,22);(39,6);(22,0);(7,6);(0,22);(7,37);(22,45);
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{\sp{\sn fFillOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fFilled}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fillColor}{\sv 153}}
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5416\shptop3257\shpright5462\shpbottom3302\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn pVerticies}{\sv 8;9;(46,22);(39,6);(22,0);(7,6);(0,22);(7,37);(22,45);
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{\sp{\sn pSegmentInfo}{\sv
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{\sp{\sn fFillOK}{\sv 1}}{\sp{\sn fFilled}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn lineWidth}{\sv 17567}}
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5629\shptop3222\shpright5676\shpbottom3266\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\sp{\sn pVerticies}{\sv 8;9;(47,21);(39,6);(23,0);(8,6);(0,21);(8,36);(23,44);
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}}

{\shp
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}}

{\shp
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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}}

{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft5950\shptop3213\shpright5995\shpbottom3258\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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}}

{\shp
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{\shp
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6591\shptop3216\shpright6637\shpbottom3261\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipH}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn fFlipV}{\sv 0}}{\sp{\sn
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft6590\shptop3216\shpright6637\shpbottom3261\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\sh
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\li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx1162\tx2710 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 The
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\expndtw0\charscalex104 17\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0\tx1126 \up0
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exceptional circumstances \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 and reflected the
conviction that a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 prompt and concerted answer to
this \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 common global shock was needed.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 In the aftermath of the
terrorist attacks \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 it became increasingly
clear that \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 economic activity in the euro
area \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 would remain subdued in the second \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 half of 2001 and in early 2002. At the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 same time, the impact of the shocks \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 that pushed up the price level \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 stemming from the increase in oil \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 prices and the depreciation of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 euro\u8217?s foreign exchange rate in 1999 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 and 2000, as well as from the food \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 price increases seen in early 2001, was \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 gradually beginning to fade.\par\pard\qj \li5103\sb0\sl-
249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
Moreover, while monetary growth was \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 strong, this
was not seen as indicating \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 upward risks to price
stability. Indeed, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 it appeared that the
continued decline \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex118 in stock prices from the
peaks \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 observed in early 2000 had led many
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 investors to shift their investments into
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 safer and more liquid short-term \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 assets. This process became further \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 entrenched after the terrorist attacks \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 on the United States in September \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 2001, since these increased financial \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 market uncertainty. The fact that the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 growth of loans to the private sector \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 was declining also allayed fears of \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 upward pressure on prices in late 2001.\par\pard\qj \li5103\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
In view of all these developments, the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 key ECB
interest rates were lowered \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
by a further \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 50 basis points on\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 8 November \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 2001. This left the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 minimum bid rate on the main \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 refinancing operation at 3.25% and the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 rates on the deposit facility and the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 marginal lending facility at 2.25% and \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 4.25% respectively.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
97\par\pard\column \ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8391\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb164\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-6\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 After
11\par\pard\ql \li20\ri267\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
September 2001 \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 inflationary \line \up0
\expndtw-3\charscalex100 pressures\par\pard\qj \li20\ri488\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 continued to \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
decline\u8230?\par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li20\ri265\sb74\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 \u8230?while
demand \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 for liquid assets \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 rose at a time \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 of
high\par\pard\ql \li20\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
uncertainty\par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li8391\sb0\sl-
180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri288\sb114\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 The Governing \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Council
reduced \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 its key interest \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 rates again in \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 November
2001
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\li503\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li503\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li503\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
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small.\par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone\cols4\colno1\colw1590\colsr110\colno2\colw3252\c
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li628\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li628\sb0\sl-
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172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li628\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li628\sb0\sl-
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HICP inflation\par\pard\ql \li935\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
remained\par\pard\ql \li925\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
relatively\par\pard\ql \li1115\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
high\u8230?\par\pard\column \ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 downward risks to economic
growth\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
related to the terrorist attacks of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex124 11
September appeared to be \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 subsiding. Some
indicators pointed to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 a recovery in economic
activity in the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 euro area and in the world
economy in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 general. Indeed, a moderate
recovery \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 of real GDP growth was recorded in
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 the euro area in early 2002. However, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex128 despite the then widely held \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 expectation that real economic growth \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 would reach potential in the second \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 half of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 2002, the strength
of the\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
recovery remained surrounded by an \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 unusually
high degree of uncertainty, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 not least because of
continued stock \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 market weakness and high
volatility.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri72\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 In the second half of 2002 concerns \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex124 about the economic outlook \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 intensified. The economic upturn \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 turned out to be weaker than expected. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 Geopolitical tensions in the Middle \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 East increased, as reflected in rising \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 oil prices. At the same time there were \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex124 increasing concerns about the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 reliability of the financial accounting \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 information of corporations. This, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 combined with weaker than expected \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 corporate earnings data, continued to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 weigh on equity prices in a context \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 of high volatility. All these factors led \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 to renewed downward revisions to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 expectations for economic growth in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 the euro area.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Nevertheless, HICP inflation
remained \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 above 2% in 2002. This was partly
due \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 to the effect of adverse weather
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 conditions on food prices and to the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 increases in oil prices. There was also \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 some upward impact on prices from \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 the euro cash changeover\ul0\super\cf25\f26\fs20
15\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex123 particular
for certain services,\par\pard\column \ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 Of some concern for the medium-term\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 outlook for price
stability was the fact \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 that the less volatile
components of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 inflation remained rather high in a \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 context of subdued economic activity, \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 and that nominal wage growth \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 remained relatively strong despite the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 rise in unemployment.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 However, the subdued economic \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 activity was increasingly seen as a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 factor that would eventually limit the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex119 potential upward risks to price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 stability, as wage-related risks were \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 less likely to materialise in this \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 context. In addition, the appreciation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 of the exchange rate of the euro as of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 the spring of 2002 further helped to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 reduce inflationary pressures.\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri0\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 Monetary growth
continued to be \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 strong in 2002 and early 2003.
As in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 2001, this was partly the result of
high \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 volatility in financial markets, which
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 heightened investors\u8217? preferences for
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 short-term liquid and less risky \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 financial assets. At the same time, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 however, it also reflected the relatively \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 low interest rates in the euro area in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 2002. Still, in view of the subdued \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 economic activity prevailing in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 euro area and continued moderate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 credit growth, the inflationary risks \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 related to the strong monetary growth \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 were considered to be low.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri0\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 In view of all these developments, the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 Governing Council reduced the key \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 ECB interest rates further between \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 December 2002 and June 2003, by 125 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 basis points in total. These decisions \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 provided some counterweight to the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 various factors having an adverse \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 effect on economic activity and\par\pard\column \ql
\li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
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\li20\ri352\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 many elements \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 pointed to\par\pard\ql \li20\sb7\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 lower\par\pard\ql \li20\ri389\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 inflationary \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 pressures
over \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the medium\par\pard\ql \li20\sb7\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 term\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-
172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb110\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
Monetary\par\pard\ql \li20\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
growth\par\pard\qj \li20\ri282\sb2\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
continued to be \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 strong in 2002 \line \up0
\expndtw-3\charscalex100 and in 2003\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li8390\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb8\sl-172\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 As a\par\pard\ql \li20\ri252\sb2\sl-180\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 consequence, \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 key
ECB interest \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 rates were\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri289\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 reduced to very
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 low levels \par\pard\sect\sectd\sbknone \qj
\li1710\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1710\sb0\sl-180\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1710\ri1577\sb7\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\super\cf15\f16\fs14 15 \ul0\nosupersub\cf25\f26\fs13 At the start of Stage
Three of EMU banknotes and coins were still denominated in the legacy currencies of
the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 euro. Euro banknotes and coins were introduced on
1 January 2002. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw314
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 98
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\li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li498\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li498\sb132\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf13\f14\fs14 In a challenging\par\pard\ql \li538\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 environment of\par\pard\ql \li818\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 short-term\par\pard\ql \li773\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 inflationary\par\pard\ql \li782\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 pressures\u8230?\par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li474\sb0\sl-180\slmult0 \par\pard\qj
\li474\ri0\sb9\sl-180\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \u8230?the ECB acted
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 with a medium-\par\pard\ql \li1224\sb7\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 term\par\pard\ql \li647\sb8\sl-
172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 perspective\u8230?\par\pard\ql
\li808\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li808\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li808\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li808\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li808\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li808\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li808\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li808\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li808\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li808\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li808\sb0\sl-172\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1159\sb146\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 \u8230?and\par\pard\ql \li808\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 maintained\par\pard\ql \li866\sb8\sl-172\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 credibility\par\pard\column \ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 thereby improved the outlook for price\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri71\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 stability in the medium
term. With \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 these decisions, the minimum bid rate
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 on the main refinancing operations \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 reached 2% in June 2003. The rates on \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 the marginal lending facility and \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 deposit facility were then lowered to \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 3% and 1%, respectively.\par\pard\qj \li20\ri555\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 5.3 AN
ASSESSMENT OF MONETARY \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100 POLICY DURING THIS
PERIOD\par\pard\qj \li20\ri70\sb250\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 In its early years, the single monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 policy had to be conducted in a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 very challenging environment in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 which a host of different shocks \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 significantly affected short-term price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 developments. These shocks included \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 the tripling of oil prices between early \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 1999 and mid-2000, a significant \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 depreciation of the exchange rate of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 the euro over this period, and, in 2001, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 increases in food prices resulting from \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 a series of livestock epidemics. In this \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 environment of upward threats to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 prices, it was essential for monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 policy to prevent these developments \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 from spilling over into inflation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 expectations and wage-price spirals.\par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj \li20\ri69\sb2\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 At the same time, monetary policy had \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 to react to these shocks with the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 appropriate medium-term orientation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 in order to limit volatility in output \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 developments. This medium-term \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 orientation also implied that monetary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 policy had to look through short-term \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 movements in prices in order to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 appropriately steer longer-term price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 developments.\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj \li20\ri71\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 Despite a
series of adverse shocks to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 the inflation rate,
the average annual \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 rate of HICP inflation in the
euro area \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 between January 1999 and June 2003
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 was only slightly above 2%, the upper \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 bound of the ECB\u8217?s definition of price \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 stability. At the same time, it is worth\par\pard\column
\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql
\li5103\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb51\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex116 noting that since the beginning of\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1496\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 1999 all indicators
of long-term \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 inflation expectations in the euro
area \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 remained almost constantly below but \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 close to \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 2%. It is also
notable that\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 inflation expectations remained at \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 those levels during periods of both \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex125 rising and falling inflationary \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 pressures. This is not only true for \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 long-term inflation expectations \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 revealed by surveys of private \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 economists, but can also be seen in the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex117 long-term inflation expectations \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex120 embedded in bond prices \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
(see\par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Chart
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex117 5.6). This indicates that the\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1497\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 public and the markets
have had faith \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex120 in the ECB\u8217?s
determination to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 maintain price stability
over the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 medium term. These are positive
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 indications that, from the outset, the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 ECB was able to build its credibility \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex114 and to convince the public and the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 markets that it intended to honour its \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 commitment to maintain price stability \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 in the medium term.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7951\posy13451\absw295 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 99
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\par\pard\ql\li1702\sb232\sl-333\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex94
\ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs29 ANNEX \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb92\sl-207\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw-5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 HISTORY - THE THREE STAGES OF
ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-248\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb12\sl-248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 In June 1988 the European Council confirmed the
objective of the progressive \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 realisation of
economic union and mandated a Committee chaired by Jacques \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Delors, the then President of the European Commission, to
study and propose \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 concrete stages leading to
this union. The Committee was composed of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
governors of the EC national central banks; Alexandre Lamfalussy, the then \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 General Manager of the Bank for International
Settlements; Niels Thygesen, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Professor of
Economics, Copenhagen; and Miguel Boyer, the then President of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 the Banco Exterior de Espa�a. The resulting \u8220?Delors
Report\u8221? proposed that \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114 economic and
monetary union should be achieved in three discrete but \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 evolutionary steps. \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1702\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Stage One of EMU \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb16\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 On the basis
of the Delors Report, the European Council decided in June 1989 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 that the first stage of the realisation of economic and
monetary union should \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 begin on 1 July 1990 - the
date on which, in principle, all restrictions on the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 movement of capital between Member States were abolished.
At this time, the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 Committee of Governors of the
Central Banks of the Member States of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
European Economic Community, which had played an increasingly important \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 role in monetary cooperation since its creation in May
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 1964, was given \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb0\sl-
251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 additional responsibilities. These were
laid down in a Council Decision dated \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 12 March
1990 and included holding consultations on, and promoting the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 coordination of, the monetary policies of the Member
States, with the aim of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 achieving price
stability. In view of the relatively short time available and the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 complexity of the tasks involved, the preparatory work for
Stage Three of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)
was also initiated by the Committee of \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
Governors. The first step was to identify all the issues which should be
examined \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 at an early stage, to establish a work
programme by the end of 1993 and to define \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
accordingly the mandates of the existing sub-committees and working groups \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 established for that purpose. \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1544\sb242\sl-248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 For the
realisation of Stages Two and Three, it was necessary to revise the Treaty \line
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 establishing the European Economic Community (the
\u8220?Treaty of Rome\u8221?) in order \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 to
establish the required institutional structure. To this end, an
Intergovernmental \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Conference on EMU was
convened, which was held in 1991 in parallel with the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Intergovernmental Conference on political union. The
negotiations resulted in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the Treaty on European
Union which was agreed in December 1991 and signed \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 in Maastricht on 7 February 1992. However, owing to delays
in the ratification \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 process, the Treaty \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 (which amended the Treaty establishing the European
\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1545\sb11\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
Economic Community - changing its name to the Treaty establishing the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 European Community - and introduced, inter alia, the
Protocol on the Statute \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 of the European System of
Central Banks and of the European Central Bank and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the
Protocol on the Statute of the European Monetary Institute) did not come \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 into force until 1 November 1993.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7852\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 101
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\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb66\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-4\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Stage Two of EMU, establishment of the EMI and the
ECB \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb16\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 The establishment of the European Monetary Institute
(EMI) on 1 January 1994 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 marked the start of the second
stage of EMU and with this the Committee of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Governors
ceased to exist. The EMI\u8217?s transitory existence also mirrored the state
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 of monetary integration within the Community. The EMI
had no responsibility \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 for the conduct of monetary
policy in the European Union - this remained the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
preserve of the national authorities - nor had it any competence for carrying
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 out foreign exchange intervention. \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 The two main tasks of the EMI were: \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1548\sb0\sl-260\slmult0\tx1984 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 i. to
strengthen central bank cooperation and monetary policy coordination; \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 and \par\pard\ql \li1700\ri1546\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx1984\tx1984 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 ii. to make the preparations
required for the establishment of the European \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 System of Central Banks (ESCB), for the conduct of the
single monetary \line \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 policy and for the creation
of a single currency in the third stage. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb225\sl-
253\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 To this end, the EMI provided a forum
for consultation and for the exchange of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 views and
information on policy issues and it specified the regulatory, \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 organisational and logistical framework necessary for the
ESCB to perform its \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 tasks in Stage Three. \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1545\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 In December 1995
the European Council agreed to name the European currency \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 unit to be introduced at the start of Stage Three, the
\u8220?euro\u8221?, and confirmed that \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Stage
Three of EMU would start on 1 January 1999. A chronological sequence \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 of events was pre-announced for the changeover to the euro.
This scenario was \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 mainly based on detailed
proposals elaborated by the EMI. At the same time, \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 the EMI was given the task of carrying out preparatory work
on the future \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 monetary and exchange rate
relationships between the euro area and other EU \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
countries. In December 1996 the EMI presented its report to the European \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Council, which formed the basis of a Resolution of the
European Council on \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 the principles and
fundamental elements of the new exchange rate mechanism \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 (ERM II), which was adopted in June 1997. \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1546\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 In December 1996
the EMI also presented to the European Council, and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
subsequently to the public, the selected design series for the euro banknotes to
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 be put into circulation on 1 January 2002.
\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 In
order to complement and to specify the Treaty provisions on EMU, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 European Council adopted the Stability and Growth Pact in
June 1997 - two \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Regulations form part of the
Stability and Growth Pact, which aims to ensure \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
budgetary discipline in respect of EMU. The Pact was supplemented and the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 respective commitments enhanced by a Declaration of
the Council in May 1998. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 On 2 May 1998 the Council of the European Union - in the
composition of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Heads of State or Government -
unanimously decided that 11 Member States \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
(Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland) had fulfilled
the conditions \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 necessary for the adoption of the
single currency on 1 January 1999. These
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 102
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\par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-253\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1545\sb185\sl-
253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 countries
were therefore to participate in the third stage of EMU. The Heads \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 of State or Government also reached a political
understanding on the persons \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 to be recommended
for appointment as members of the Executive Board of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 ECB. \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1545\sb250\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 At the same time, the ministers of finance of the
Member States adopting the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 single currency
agreed together with the governors of the national central banks \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 of these Member States, the European Commission and the EMI
that the current \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 ERM bilateral central rates of
the currencies of the participating Member States \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 would be used in determining the irrevocable conversion
rates for the euro. \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-248\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb4\sl-248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 On 25
May 1998 the governments of the 11 participating Member States \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 appointed the President, the Vice-President and the four
other members of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Executive Board of the ECB.
Their appointment took effect from 1 June 1998 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
and marked the establishment of the ECB. The ECB and the national central \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 banks of the participating Member States constitute
the Eurosystem, which \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 formulates and defines the
single monetary policy in Stage Three of EMU. \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb249\sl-
252\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 With the establishment of the ECB on 1
June 1998, the EMI had completed its \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 tasks. In
accordance with Article 123 (ex Article 109l) of the Treaty establishing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 the European Community, the EMI went into liquidation on
the establishment \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 of the ECB. All the
preparatory work entrusted to the EMI was concluded in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 good time and the rest of 1998 was devoted by the ECB to
the final testing of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 systems and procedures.
\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb59\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Stage Three of EMU,
irrevocable fixing of exchange rates \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1545\sb0\sl-253\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 On 1 January 1999 the
third and final stage of EMU commenced with the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
irrevocable fixing of the exchange rates of the currencies of the 11 Member \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 States initially participating in Monetary Union and with
the conduct of a single \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 monetary policy under the
responsibility of the ECB. \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb244\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 The number of participating Member States increased to 12
on 1 January 2001, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 when Greece entered the third
stage of EMU. Since that day the Bank of Greece \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
has been part of the Eurosystem. Greece\u8217?s participation followed a decision
taken \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 on 19 June 2000 by the EU Council -
meeting in the composition of the Heads \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 of State
or Government - that Greece fulfilled the convergence criteria.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7852\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 103
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\par\pard\ql\li1702\sb232\sl-333\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex92
\ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs29 GLOSSARY \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb46\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Accountability\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the
legal and political obligation of an independent institution \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 to properly explain and justify its decisions to the
citizens and their elected \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 representatives, thereby
making it responsible for fulfilling its objectives. The \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Central Bank
(ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 is accountable to the European citizens and,
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 more formally, to the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
European Parliament\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1544\sb242\sl-260\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Bond market\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the market
in which longer-term \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 debt
securities\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 are issued and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 traded. \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb249\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Broad Economic Policy
Guidelines (BEPGs)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : adopted by the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 EU Council \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 to provide the framework for defining the economic
policy objectives and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 orientations of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and the
European Community. \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-246\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb8\sl-246\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Central bank
independence\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : legal provision which guarantees that a
central \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 bank can carry out its tasks and duties
without political interference. Article 108 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 of
the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Treaty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 establishes
the principle of central bank independence for the euro \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 area. \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Collateral\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : assets
pledged as a guarantee for the repayment of loans (e.g. by \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 credit
institutions\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 with central banks), as well as assets
sold (e.g. to central \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 banks by credit institutions) as
part of \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 repurchase
agreements\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-
251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Consolidated
MFI balance sheet\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : this is obtained by netting out
inter-MFI \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 positions (e.g. inter-MFI loans and
deposits) on the aggregated MFI balance \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 sheet.
It provides statistical information on the MFI sector\u8217?s assets and
liabilities \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 vis-�-vis residents of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 not belonging
to this sector (i.e. \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 general \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 government\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and other euro
area residents) and vis-�-vis non-euro area residents. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 This consolidated balance sheet is the main statistical
source for the calculation \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 of
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 monetary aggregates\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and
it provides the basis for the regular analysis of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 the counterparts of \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
M3\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Convergence criteria\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the criteria established in
Article 121 (1) of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Treaty \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (and developed further in
Protocol No 21) as a basis for the assessment of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
whether a country may adopt the euro. They relate to performance with regard
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 to \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 price
stability\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , the government financial position,
exchange rates and long-\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 term interest rates.
They also cover the compatibility of national legislation, \line \up0 \expndtw-
3\charscalex100 including the statutes of national central banks, with both the
Treaty and the Statute \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European System of Central
Banks\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
European Central Bank\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : see
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 EU Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-240\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb24\sl-
240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Counterparty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the opposite party in a financial
transaction (e.g. any party \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 transacting with a central
bank). \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb244\sl-260\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Credit
institution\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : refers to an institution covered by the
definition contained \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 in Article 1 (1) of
Directive 2000/12/EC of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European
Parliament\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and of
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7852\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 105
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart
Pg107}{\bkmkend Pg107}\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-251\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\sb0\sl-251\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb191\sl-
251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 the Council
of 20 March 2000 relating to the taking up and pursuit of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 business of credit institutions, as amended by Directive
2000/28/EC of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 European Parliament and of the
Council of 18 September 2000. Thus, a credit \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
institution is: (i) an undertaking whose business is to receive deposits or
other \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 repayable funds from the public and to
grant credits for its own account; or \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 (ii) an
undertaking or any other legal person, other than those under (i), which \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 issues means of payment in the form of \u8220?electronic
money\u8221? (electronic money \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 means monetary
value, as represented by a claim on the issuer, which is: \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1547\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (a) stored on an
electronic device; (b) issued on receipt of funds of an amount \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 not lower in value than the monetary value issued; and (c)
accepted as a means \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 of payment by undertakings other
than the issuer). \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb240\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Credit to euro area
residents\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a broad measure of the financing of
non-\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 monetary
financial institution (MFI)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 euro area residents
(including \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 general \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
government\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and the private sector) provided by the
MFI sector. It is defined \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 as including MFI
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 loans to euro area
residents\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and MFI holdings of securities \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 issued by \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro
area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 residents. The latter include shares, other
equity and \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 debt \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
securities\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . As securities can be seen as an
alternative source of funds to loans, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 and as
some loans can be securitised, this definition provides more accurate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 information on the total amount of financing provided by
the MFI sector to the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 economy than a narrow
definition comprising loans only. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1545\sb250\sl-
251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Currency in
circulation\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : comprises banknotes and coins in
circulation that are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 commonly used to make
payments. As from the start of 2002 currency in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
circulation in the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro
area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 has included banknotes issued by the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and by other \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 monetary
financial institutions (MFIs)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 as well as coins issued
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 by the euro area central governments denominated
in both \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and the
legacy \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 currencies, even though the euro has been
the sole legal tender in all euro area \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 countries
since 1 March 2002. Banknotes of legacy currencies ceased to be \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 included in banknotes in circulation as from \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 1 January \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 2003, both for
\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 financial
reporting and for statistical purposes. The same has been \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 applied consistently for coins of legacy currencies.
Currency in circulation as \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 included in
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 M3\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 is a net concept,
meaning that it refers only to those banknotes \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
and coins in circulation that are held outside the MFI sector (i.e. currency
held \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 byMFIs or \u8220?vault cash\u8221? has been
subtracted). Furthermore, it includes neither \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
central banks\u8217?stocks of own banknotes (as they have not been put into
circulation), \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 nor commemorative coins (that are
not commonly used to make payments). \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb240\sl-
250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Debt
ratio\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the subject of one of the fiscal criteria used
to define the existence \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 of an excessive
deficit, as laid down in Article 104 (2) of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Treaty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . It is defined \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 as the ratio of government debt to gross domestic product
at current market \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 prices, while government debt
is defined in Protocol No 20 (on the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 excessive
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 deficit procedure\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 )
as the total gross debt at nominal value outstanding at the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 end of the year and consolidated between and within the
sectors of \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 general \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
government\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb242\sl-
260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Debt
securities\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a promise on the part of the issuer
(borrower) to make one or \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 more payment(s) to the
holder (lender) at a specified future date or dates. The
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 106
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart
Pg108}{\bkmkend Pg108}\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb194\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
holder\u8217?s income from the debt securities therefore consists of any coupon
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 payments received together with the difference between
the purchase price of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 the bond and its market value
upon sale or maturity. Debt securities are \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 negotiable
and can be traded on secondary markets, but they do not grant the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 holder any ownership rights in the issuing unit. Money
market paper and, in \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 principle, private placements are
included in the debt securities statistics of the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Central Bank
(ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Deficit
ratio\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the subject of one of the fiscal criteria used
to define the existence \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 of an excessive
deficit, as laid down in Article 104 (2) of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Treaty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . It is defined \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 as the ratio of the planned or actual government deficit to gross
domestic product \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 at current market prices. The
government deficit is defined in Protocol No 20 \line \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100
(on the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 excessive deficit
procedure\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ) as net borrowing of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 general government\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb59\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Deflation\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a decline in the general price level, e.g.
in the consumer price index. \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1545\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Degree of openness\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a
measure of the extent to which an economy depends \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 on
trade with other countries or regions, e.g. the ratio of the sum of total
imports \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 and exports to GDP. \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1545\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Deposit facility\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 standing facility\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of
the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 which
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 counterparties \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 may use to make \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
overnight deposits\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 at a national central bank and
which are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 remunerated at a pre-specified
interest rate (see \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 key ECB interest
rates\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ). \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Deposits
redeemable at notice\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : savings deposits for which the
holder must \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 respect a fixed period of notice
before withdrawing the funds. In some cases \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
there is the possibility of withdrawing on demand a certain fixed amount in a \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 specified period or of early withdrawal subject
to the payment of a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 penalty. Deposits
redeemable at a period of notice of up to three months are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 included in \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
M2\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (and hence in \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
M3\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ), while those with a longer period of notice \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 are part of the (non-monetary) longer-term financial
liabilities of the MFI sector. \par\pard\qj \li1701\ri1545\sb250\sl-250\slmult0\fi0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Deposits with an agreed
maturity\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : mainly time deposits with a given
maturity \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 that, depending on national practices,
may be subject to the payment of a penalty \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 in
the event of early withdrawal. Some non-marketable debt instruments, such \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 as non-transferable (retail) certificates of deposit,
are also included. Deposits \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 with an agreed
maturity of up to two years are included in \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
M2\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (and hence in \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
M3\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ), while those with an agreed maturity of over two
years are included in the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 (non-monetary) longer-
term financial liabilities of the MFI sector. \par\pard\qj \li1701\ri1545\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Derivatives
market\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the issuing and trading market for financial
contracts, the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 value of which is related to
underlying securities prices, interest rates, foreign \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 exchange rates, market indices or commodity prices. The
basic classes of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 derivatives are
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 futures contracts\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
,\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 options\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
,\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 swaps\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 forward rate \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
agreements\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 ECOFIN Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : see
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 EU Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7852\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 107
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Pg109}{\bkmkend Pg109}\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-251\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\sb0\sl-251\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb191\sl-
251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Economic and
Financial Committee (EFC)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a consultative Community
body \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 set up at the start of
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stage Three\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Economic and Monetary Union
(EMU)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 The
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Commission\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and
the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Central \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 Bank (ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 each appoint no
more than two members of the Committee. Each \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
Member State selects one member from among the senior officials of its national
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 administration, and the second member from among
the senior officials of its \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 national central
bank. However, the national central bank members only \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 participate in EFC meetings when issues of their
institution\u8217?s particular expertise \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 or
competence are being discussed. Article 114 (2) of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Treaty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 contains a
list \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 of the tasks of the Economic and Financial
Committee. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Economic and Monetary Union
(EMU)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Treaty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 describes the process of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 achieving economic and monetary union in the European Union
in three stages. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Stage One of EMU started in
July 1990 and ended on 31 December 1993. It was \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
mainly characterised by the dismantling of all internal barriers to the free
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 movement of capital within the European Union.
Stage Two of EMU began on \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 1 January 1994. It
provided for, inter alia, the establishment of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
European \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 Monetary Institute
(EMI)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , the prohibition of financing of the public
sector \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 by the central banks, the prohibition of
privileged access to financial institutions \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 by
the public sector and the avoidance of excessive government deficits. Stage
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Three started on 1 January 1999 with the
transfer of monetary competence to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Central Bank
(ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and the introduction of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1547\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 ECU (European Currency
Unit)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : prior to \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stage
Three\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of EMU, the ECU was \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 a basket currency made up of the sum of fixed amounts of 12
out of the 15 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 currencies of the EU
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . The
value of the ECU was calculated as \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 a weighted
average of the value of its component currencies. The ECU was \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 replaced by the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 on a one-for-one basis on 1 January 1999.
\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-248\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb4\sl-
248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Effective
(nominal/real) exchange rates (EERs)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : nominal EERs
consist of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 a (geometric) weighted average of
various bilateral exchange rates. Real EERs \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 are
nominal EERs deflated by a weighted average of foreign, relative to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 domestic, prices or costs. They are thus measures
of price and cost \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 competitiveness. The
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Central Bank
(ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 calculates nominal EER \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 indices for the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 against the currencies of a broad group of
trading partners \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . Since
January 2001 the narrow group has consisted of 12 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 industrial and newly industrialised partner currencies,
while the broad group has \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 been made up of 38
trading partners. The real EER indices for the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
calculated using alternative measures of prices and costs. \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1546\sb248\sl-253\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 EONIA (euro overnight index
average)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a measure of the effective interest
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 rate prevailing in the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 interbank
overnight market. It is calculated as a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 weighted
average of the interest rates on unsecured overnight lending \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 transactions denominated in euro, as reported by a panel of
contributing banks. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Equity
market\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the market in which equities are issued and
traded. Equities are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 claims to a share in the
ownership of a business. A major difference between \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 equity and debt is that the former does not have to be
repaid by the issuer. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw481
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 108
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\par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb194\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 ERM
(exchange rate mechanism)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the exchange rate and
intervention \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 mechanism of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Monetary System\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
defined the exchange rate of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 participating
currencies in terms of central rates against the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
ECU\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . These central \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
rates were used to establish a table of bilateral central rates between
participating \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 currencies. Exchange rates were
allowed to fluctuate within a band around the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
bilateral central rates. The central rates could be adjusted, subject to mutual
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 agreement between all countries participating in
the ERM. The ERM ceased to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 exist with the start
of \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stage Three\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 when
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 ERM II\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 was established.
\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 ERM II (exchange rate mechanism
II)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the exchange rate arrangement which \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 provides the framework for exchange rate policy
cooperation between the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 EU Member States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 not
participating in the euro area from the start \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 of
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stage Three\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Economic and Monetary Union
(EMU)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . Membership of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 the mechanism is voluntary. Nevertheless, Member States
with a derogation are \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 expected to join the
mechanism. Foreign exchange intervention and financing \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 at the margins of the standard or narrower fluctuation
bands are, in principle, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 automatic and
unlimited, with very short-term financing available. The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Central Bank
(ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and the participating non-euro area national
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 central banks could, however, suspend automatic
intervention if this were to \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 conflict with their
primary objective of maintaining \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 price
stability\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 EU
Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : an institution of the European Community. It
is made up of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 representatives of the governments
of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
normally the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 ministers responsible for the
matters under consideration \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 (therefore often
\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1545\sb14\sl-246\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115
referred to as the Council of Ministers). The EU Council meeting in the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 composition of the ministers of finance and economy is
often referred to as the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 ECOFIN\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Council. In
addition, the EU Council may meet in the composition \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 of the Heads of State or Government (see also
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ).
\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 EU enlargement\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : In 2003
a total of 13 countries in central and eastern Europe \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 and the Mediterranean were recognised by the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 as
candidates \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 for accession to the European Union
(EU). The following ten countries signed \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 the
Accession Treaty with a view to joining the EU on 1 May 2004: the Czech \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary,
Malta, Poland, Slovenia \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 and Slovakia. Two other
countries, Bulgaria and Romania, entered into accession \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 negotiations in 2003 and have been given the prospect of
entry into the EU in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 2007. Turkey is the other
official candidate for accession. \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1702\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 EU Member State\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : see
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member State\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 EURIBOR
(euro interbank offered rate)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the rate at which a
prime bank is \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 willing to lend funds in
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 to another prime
bank. The EURIBOR is calculated \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 daily for interbank
deposits with a maturity of one week and one to 12 months \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 as the average of the daily offer rates of a representative
panel of prime banks, \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 rounded to three decimal places.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7852\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 109
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart
Pg111}{\bkmkend Pg111}\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-260\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb166\sl-
260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the name of the European single currency
adopted by the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 at its meeting in Madrid on 15 and 16
December 1995. \par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-248\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb2\sl-248\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Euro area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the area
encompassing those \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member
States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 in which the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 has \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 been adopted as
the single currency in accordance with the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Treaty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and in which \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 a
single monetary policy is conducted under the responsibility of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Governing \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European
Central Bank (ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . In 2003 the euro area
comprised \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France,
Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Netherlands, Austria,
Portugal and Finland. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb243\sl-260\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Central Bank
(ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the ECB lies at the centre of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 System of
Central Banks \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 (ESCB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and
the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and has
legal \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb0\sl-253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
personality under Community law. It ensures that the tasks conferred upon the
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Eurosystem and the ESCB are implemented either by its
own activities or those \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 of the national central banks
pursuant to the Statute of the European System of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
Central Banks and of the European Central Bank. \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1545\sb238\sl-248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Commission\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 :
the institution of the European Community that ensures \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 the application of the provisions of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Treaty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . The Commission
develops \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Community policies, proposes Community
legislation and exercises powers in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 specific
areas. In the area of economic policy, the Commission recommends \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 broad guidelines for economic policies in the Community and
reports to the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 EU \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 on economic developments and policies. It
monitors public finances \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 within the framework of
multilateral surveillance and submits reports to the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Council. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb248\sl-
253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European
Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : provides the European Union with the
necessary impetus \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 for its development and defines the
general political guidelines thereof. It brings \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
together the Heads of State or Government of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Member States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
President of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European
Commission\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (see also \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 EU
Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ). \par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-248\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb4\sl-248\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Monetary Institute
(EMI)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a temporary institution established at \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 the start of Stage Two of \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 on 1 January
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 1994. The two main tasks of the EMI were to strengthen
central bank cooperation \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 and monetary policy
coordination and to make the preparations required for the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 establishment of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European
System of Central Banks (ESCB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , for the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 conduct of the single monetary policy and for the creation
of a single currency \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 in \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Stage Three\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . It went into liquidation following the
establishment of the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
European Central Bank (ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 on 1 June 1998.
\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb250\sl-251\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Monetary System
(EMS)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : an exchange rate regime established in
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 1979 in accordance with the Resolution of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of 5
December \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 1978. Its operating procedures were
laid down by the Agreement of 13 March \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 1979
between the central banks of the Member States of the European Economic \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 Community (EEC). The objective was to create closer
monetary policy \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 cooperation between Community
countries, leading to a zone of monetary \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
stability in Europe. The main components of the EMS were the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 ECU\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 exchange rate and intervention mechanism \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex112 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
(ERM)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and various credit
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 110
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart
Pg112}{\bkmkend Pg112}\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb194\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 mechanisms.
It ceased to exist at the start of \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stage
Three\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Economic
and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Monetary Union
(EMU)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , when \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 ERM II
(exchange rate mechanism II) \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 was \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 established. \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-
251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European
Parliament\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : consists of 626 representatives of the
citizens of the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Member States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . It is a part of the legislative
process, although with different \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 prerogatives
according to the procedures through which EU law is to be enacted. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 In the framework of \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Economic
and Monetary Union (EMU)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , the Parliament \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 has mainly consultative powers. The
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Treaty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 establishes
certain procedures for \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 the democratic
accountability of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Central Bank
(ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 to the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
Parliament (presentation of the annual report, general debate on the monetary \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 policy, hearings before the competent parliamentary
committees). \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European System of Accounts
1995 (ESA 95)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a system of uniform statistical
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 definitions and classifications aimed at
achieving a harmonised quantitative \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 description
of the economies of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member
States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . The ESA 95 is the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 Community\u8217?s version of the world System of National
Accounts (SNA 93). The \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 ESA 95 is a new version
of the European system, the implementation of which \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 began in the course of 1999 in accordance with Council
Regulation (EC) \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 No 2223/96. \par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-240\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb19\sl-240\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European System of Central
Banks (ESCB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : composed of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Central
Bank (ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and the national central banks of all
EU \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1545\sb20\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 i.e.
it includes, in addition to the members of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , the national \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
central banks of the Member States that have not yet adopted the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1545\sb2\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Eurostat\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the Statistical Office of the European
Communities. Eurostat is part \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Commission\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
and is responsible for the production of \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Community
statistics. \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the central banking system of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . It comprises
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European
Central Bank (ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and the national central banks of
the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 that have adopted the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 in
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stage Three\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Economic and Monetary \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 Union (EMU)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (see also
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ). In 2003
there were 12 national central banks \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 in the
Eurosystem. \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem staff
projections\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the results of exercises conducted
by \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 staff to project possible future
macroeconomic developments in the \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 as part of
the economic analysis. \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1543\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Excessive deficit
procedure\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the provision set out in Article 104 of
the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Treaty \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and specified in Protocol No 20 on the excessive
deficit procedure requires EU \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 to
maintain budgetary discipline, defines the criteria for a \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 budgetary position to be considered an excessive deficit
and regulates steps to \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 be taken following the
observation that the requirements for the budgetary balance \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 or government debt have not been fulfilled. This is
supplemented by an \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 EU \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Regulation on
speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 excessive deficit procedure, which is one element of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stability and Growth \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 Pact\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7852\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 111
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{\shp
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart
Pg113}{\bkmkend Pg113}\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb194\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Exchange
rate targeting\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a monetary policy strategy aiming for
a given \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 (usually a stable or even fixed)
exchange rate against another currency or group \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
of currencies. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb248\sl-253\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Executive
Board\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : one of the decision-making bodies of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Central \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Bank
(ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . It comprises the President and the Vice-
President of the ECB and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 four other members appointed
by common accord by the Heads of State or \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Government
of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
that have adopted the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-240\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb18\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Financial markets\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 :
markets in which those who have a surplus of funds lend \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 to those who have a shortage. \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1547\sb244\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Fine-tuning operation\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 :
a non-regular \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 open market
operation\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 executed by the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 mainly to deal with unexpected liquidity
fluctuations in the market. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb249\sl-250\slmult0\fi0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Fixed rate
tender\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a tender procedure where the interest rate is
specified in \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 advance by the central bank and
participating \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
counterparties\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 bid the amount \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 of money they want to transact at the fixed interest
rate. \par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-248\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb4\sl-
248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Foreign
exchange swap\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : simultaneous spot and forward
transactions \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 exchanging one currency against
another. The \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
can execute open \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 market monetary policy
operations in the form of foreign exchange swaps, where \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 the national central banks (or the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Central Bank
(ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ) buy or sell \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 spot against a
foreign currency and at the same time sell or buy them back \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 in a forward transaction. \par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1547\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Forward rate agreement
(FRA)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : an agreement whereby one party undertakes \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 to pay another party a certain interest rate on a certain
principal amount for a \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 certain period of time
beginning at some point in the future. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb242\sl-
260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Futures
contract\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a contract to buy or sell securities or a
commodity at a \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 predetermined price on a specified
future date. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb249\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 General
Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : one of the decision-making bodies of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Central \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Bank
(ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . It comprises the President and the Vice-
President of the ECB and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 the governors of all EU
national central banks. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 General
government\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : as defined in the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European System of Accounts 1995 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 (ESA 95)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , consists of
central, state and local government and social security \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 funds. \par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-246\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb8\sl-246\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Governing Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the
supreme decision-making body of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 Central Bank (ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . It
comprises all the members of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Executive Board \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of the ECB and the governors
of the national central banks of the countries that \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
have adopted the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb243\sl-
260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Harmonised
Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : index of consumer
prices \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 whose statistical methodology has been
harmonised across countries. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw481
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 112
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart
Pg114}{\bkmkend Pg114}\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1545\sb194\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Households\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : one of the institutional sectors in
the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European System of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 Accounts 1995 (ESA 95)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . The
household sector covers individuals or groups \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 of
individuals as consumers, but possibly also as entrepreneurs \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 (i.e. sole \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1545\sb10\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 proprietorships and partnerships). Non-
profit institutions serving households \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 are a separate
institutional sector according to the ESA 95, although they are \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 often reported together with households. \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Inflation\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : an increase in the general price level,
e.g. in the consumer price index. \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-240\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb24\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Inflation risk premium\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 :
compensation of investors for the risks associated with \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 holding assets (denominated in nominal terms) over the
longer term. \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb2\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Inflation targeting\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a
monetary policy strategy aimed at maintaining \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
price \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 stability\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 by
focusing on deviations in published inflation forecasts from an \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 announced inflation target. \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1543\sb249\sl-252\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Key ECB interest rates\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 :
the interest rates that reflect the stance of the monetary \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 policy of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European
Central Bank (ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and that are set by the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Governing \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116
Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . The key ECB interest rates are the interest
rate on the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 main \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
refinancing operations\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (the fixed rate in
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 fixed rate tenders\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and
the minimum \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 bid rate in \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
variable rate tenders\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ), the interest rate on the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 marginal lending \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
facility\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and the interest rate on the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 deposit facility\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-246\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb7\sl-
246\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Labour force
participation rate\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the labour force as a proportion
of the total \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 working age population. The working age
population is normally defined as the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 population aged
between 15 and 64 years of age. The labour force comprises \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 both employed and unemployed persons. \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1545\sb243\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Leading indicators\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 :
economic variables which anticipate or contain useful \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
information for predicting future developments in other variables. \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1544\sb249\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Loans to euro area
residents\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : funds lent by
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 monetary financial institutions \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 (MFIs)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 to borrowers and not
evidenced by negotiable documents or represented \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
by one single document (if it has become negotiable). This description includes
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 loans granted to households, non-financial
corporations and government. Loans \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 to households
can take the form of consumer credit (loans granted for personal \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 use in the consumption of goods and services), lending for
house purchases \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 (credit extended for the purpose
of investing in housing, including building and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
home improvements) and other lending (loans granted for purposes such as debt \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 consolidation, education, etc.) (see also
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 credit to euro area
residents\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ). \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-
246\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1543\sb8\sl-246\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Longer-term refinancing
operation\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a regular \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
open market operation \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
executed by the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 in the form of a
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 reverse transaction\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
Longer-term \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 refinancing operations are carried out
through monthly \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 standard
tenders\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 normally
have a maturity of three months. \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1702\sb60\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 M1, M2, M3\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : see
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Monetary aggregates\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7852\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 113
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart
Pg115}{\bkmkend Pg115}\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb66\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Maastricht Treaty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 :
see \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Treaty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Main
refinancing operation\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a regular
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 open market operation\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
executed by \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 in the form of a
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 reverse transaction\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
Main refinancing \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 operations are conducted
through weekly \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 standard
tenders\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . In \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 2003 the
\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb19\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex114
Governing Council decided that as of March 2004 the maturity of these \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 operations would be reduced from two weeks to one.
\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb2\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Maintenance
period\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the period over which
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 credit
institutions\u8217?\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 compliance \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 with \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 reserve
requirements\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 is calculated. The maintenance
period for \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 minimum reserves is one month. In 2003 the
Governing Council \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 decided that as of March 2004
the maintenance period would no longer start on \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
the 24th calendar day of one month and end on the 23rd calendar day of the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 following month, but would instead start on the
settlement day of the first main \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 refinancing
operation following the Governing Council meeting at which the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 monthly assessment of the monetary policy stance is pre-
scheduled and would \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 end on the day preceding the
similar settlement day in the following month. \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1546\sb248\sl-253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Marginal lending
facility\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 standing
facility\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 which \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
counterparties\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 may use to receive overnight credit
from a national central bank \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 at a pre-specified
interest rate against eligible assets (see \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 key ECB
interest \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
rates\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ). \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb58\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member State\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a country
that is a member of the European Union. \par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-240\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1547\sb24\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Minimum bid rate\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the
lower limit to the interest rates at which \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
counterparties \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 may
submit bids in the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 variable rate
tenders\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (see \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 key ECB
interest rates\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ). \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1547\sb244\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Monetary aggregates\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 :
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 currency in circulation\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
plus outstanding amounts of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 certain liabilities
of \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 monetary financial institutions \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 (MFIs)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 that have a
\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb0\sl-251\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
relatively high degree of liquidity and are held by non-MFI euro area residents
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 outside the central government sector. The
narrow monetary aggregate \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
M1\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 has \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 been
defined as currency in circulation plus \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
overnight deposits\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . The \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \u8220?intermediate\u8221? monetary aggregate
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 M2\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 comprises M1 plus
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 deposits with an \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
agreed maturity\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of up to and including two years
and \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 deposits redeemable \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 at notice\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of up to and
including three months. The broad monetary aggregate \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
M3\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 comprises M2 plus \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
repurchase agreements, money market fund shares \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
and units\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 as well as \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
debt securities\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 with a maturity of up to and
including two \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 years. The
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Governing Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 has
announced a reference value for the growth \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 of M3
(see also \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 reference value for monetary
growth\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ). \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb240\sl-
248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Monetary
base\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : consists of currency (banknotes and coins) in
circulation, the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 reserves held by counterparties
with the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and
recourse to the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Eurosystem\u8217?s deposit
facility. These items are liabilities on the Eurosystem\u8217?s \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 balance sheet. Reserves can be broken down further into
required and excess \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 reserves. In the
Eurosystem\u8217?s minimum reserve system counterparties are \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 obliged to hold required reserves with the NCBs. In
addition to these required \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw481
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 114
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart
Pg116}{\bkmkend Pg116}\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-260\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb166\sl-
260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 reserves,
credit institutions usually hold only a small amount of voluntary excess \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 reserves with the Eurosystem. \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1545\sb249\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Monetary financial institutions
(MFIs)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : financial institutions that form the \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 money-issuing sector of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . These
include the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
resident \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 credit
institutions \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (as defined
in Community law) and all other resident \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb0\sl-
253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 financial institutions whose business is
to receive deposits and/or close \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 substitutes for
deposits from entities other than MFIs and, for their own account \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 (at least in economic terms), to grant credit and/or invest
in securities. The latter \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 group consists predominantly
of \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 money market
funds\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb238\sl-
250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Monetary
policy strategy\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the general approach to the conduct
of monetary \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 policy. The monetary policy strategy of
the ECB comprises a quantitative \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 definition of the
primary objective of price stability and an analytical framework \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 based on two pillars - economic analysis and monetary
analysis - which forms \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 the basis of the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Governing Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
\u8217?s overall assessment of the risks to \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 price
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 stability\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and its
monetary policy decisions. It also provides the framework for \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 explaining monetary policy decisions to the public.
\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Monetary policy transmission
mechanism\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the process through which \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 monetary policy decisions affect the economy in general and
the price level in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 particular. \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Monetary targeting\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a
monetary policy strategy aimed at maintaining \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
price \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 stability\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 by
focusing on the deviations of money growth from a pre-announced \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 target. \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Money
demand\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a key economic relationship that represents
the demand for \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 money balances by
non-\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 monetary financial institutions
(MFIs)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . The demand \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 for money is often expressed as a function of prices and economic
activity, which \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 serves as a proxy for the level
of transactions in the economy, and certain interest \line \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 rate variables, which measure the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
opportunity costs\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of holding money. \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Money market\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the
market in which short-term funds are raised, invested and \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 traded using instruments which generally have an original
maturity of up to one \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 year. \par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-246\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb8\sl-246\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Money market
fund\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a collective investment undertaking that
primarily invests \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 in money market instruments and/or
other transferable debt instruments with \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 a residual
maturity of up to one year, and/or that pursues a rate of return that \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 approaches the interest rates on money market
instruments. \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1542\sb249\sl-253\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Neutrality of
money\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a basic economic principle stating that in the
long run \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 changes in the money supply only lead
to changes in nominal variables but not \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 in real
variables. Changes in the money supply will therefore have no long-term \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 effect on variables such as real output, unemployment
or real interest rates. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7852\posy13451\absw481
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 115
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Pg117}{\bkmkend Pg117}\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-260\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb166\sl-
260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Nominal
effective exchange rates\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : see
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 effective (nominal/real) exchange \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 rates\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj
\li1700\sb0\sl-248\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb2\sl-248\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Non-financial
corporations\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : one of the institutional sectors in the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 System of
Accounts 1995 (ESA 95)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . This sector consists of
institutional units \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 whose distributive and
financial transactions are distinct from those of their \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 owners. Non-financial corporations encompass all
bodies recognised as \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 independent legal
entities which are market producers and whose principal \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 activity is the production of goods and non-financial
services. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb250\sl-251\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Open market
operation\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : an operation executed on the initiative of
the central \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex116 bank in the financial markets. With
regard to their aims, regularity and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 procedures,
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 open market
operations can be divided into four \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
categories: \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 main refinancing
operations\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 longer-term
refinancing operations\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 fine-tuning
operations\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
structural operations\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . They involve one of the
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 following transactions: (i) buying or selling
assets outright (spot or forward); \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 (ii) buying
or selling assets under a \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 repurchase
agreement\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ; (iii) lending or \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 borrowing against underlying assets as
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 collateral\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ; (iv)
issuing central bank debt \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 certificates; \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 (v) accepting fixed-term deposits; or (vi) conducting
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 foreign \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 exchange
swaps\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 between domestic and foreign currencies.
\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-240\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb19\sl-
240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Opportunity
cost\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : measure of the costs of holding an asset,
typically measured \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 as the spread between the
return on an alternative asset and its own return. \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1547\sb244\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Option\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a financial
instrument that gives the owner the right, but not the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 obligation, to buy or sell specific assets \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 (e.g. a bond or a stock) at a \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1546\sb0\sl-253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 predetermined price
(the strike or exercise price) at or up to a certain future date \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 (the exercise or maturity date). A call option gives the
holder the right to \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 purchase the underlying assets at
an agreed exercise price, whereas a put option \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 gives
the holder the right to sell them at an agreed price. \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1547\sb239\sl-246\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Output gap\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the
difference between the actual and potential levels of output of \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 an economy, expressed as a percentage of potential output.
Potential output is \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111 the level of output that can be
achieved when the factors of production are \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 utilised
at non-inflationary levels. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1548\sb243\sl-260\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Outright
transaction\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a transaction whereby assets are bought
or sold outright \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 in the market (spot or forward).
\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb249\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Overnight deposits\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 :
deposits with next-day maturity. This instrument category \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 comprises mainly those sight/demand deposits that are fully
transferable (by \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 cheque or similar instrument). It
also includes non-transferable deposits that are \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
convertible on demand or by close of business the following day. Overnight \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 deposits are included in \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
M1\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (and hence in \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
M2\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
M3\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ). \par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-240\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1547\sb19\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Pension fund\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : provision
or similar fund set aside by non-financial corporations \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 to pay for their employees\u8217? pensions.
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 116
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{\shp
{\*\shpinst\shpleft1700\shptop13\shpright1700\shpbottom850\shpfhdr0\shpbxpage\shpby
page\shpwr3\shpwrk0\shpfblwtxt1\shpz451\shplid3{\sp{\sn shapeType}{\sv 20}}{\sp{\sn
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart
Pg118}{\bkmkend Pg118}\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-260\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb166\sl-
260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Price
stability\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the maintenance of price stability is the
primary objective of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . In
October \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 1998 the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Governing Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 published a \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1544\sb0\sl-252\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113 quantitative
definition of price stability in order to give clear guidance to \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 expectations of future price developments and to be
accountable. The Governing \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Council has defined
price stability as a year-on-year increase in the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Harmonised \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 Index of Consumer Prices
(HICP)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 for the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro
area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of below 2%. In May \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 2003 the Governing Council clarified that, in its pursuit
of price stability, it aims \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 to maintain
inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb46\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Projections\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : see \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Eurosystem staff projections\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb64\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Real effective exchange
rates\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : see \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 effective
exchange rates (nominal/real)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1543\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Reference value for
monetary growth\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : in order to assess monetary
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 developments, the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Governing Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 has announced a reference value for
the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 broad monetary aggregate
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 M3\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . This reference
value refers to the rate of M3 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 growth that is
deemed to be compatible with price stability over the medium \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 term. The reference value is derived in a manner that is
consistent with and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 serves the achievement of
the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Governing Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
\u8217?s definition of \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 price stability \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 on the basis of medium-term
assumptions regarding trend real GDP growth and \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
the trend in the velocity of circulation of M3. Substantial or prolonged deviations
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 of M3 growth from the reference value would,
under normal circumstances, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 signal risks to
price stability over the medium term. However, monetary policy \line \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 does not react mechanically to deviations of M3 growth from the
reference value. \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-246\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb8\sl-246\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Reference value for the fiscal
position\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Treaty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Protocol No 20 on the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex110 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 excessive deficit
procedure\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 sets explicit reference values for the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 general \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 government
deficit ratio\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (3% of GDP) and the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 debt ratio\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (60% of GDP)
(see \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 also \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stability and
Growth Pact\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ). \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb250\sl-
252\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Repurchase
agreement\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : an arrangement to sell an asset and to
repurchase it \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 at a specified price on a
predetermined future date or on demand. Such an \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex113
agreement is similar to collateralised borrowing, except that in this case \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 ownership of the securities is not retained by the
seller. Repurchase transactions \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 are included
in \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 M3\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 in cases where
the seller is a \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 monetary financial institution
\line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 (MFI)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 counterparty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 is a non-
MFI resident in the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro
area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-240\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb18\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Repurchase operation
(repo)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a liquidity-providing
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 reverse transaction\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
based \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 on a \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 repurchase
agreement\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1538\sb244\sl-
260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Reserve
base\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the sum of the balance sheet items (in
particular liabilities) that \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 constitute the
basis for calculating the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 reserve
requirement\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of a \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 credit
institution\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb249\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Reserve
ratio\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a ratio defined by the central bank for each
category of balance \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 sheet items included in the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 reserve base\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . The
ratios are used to calculate r\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 eserve \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 requirements\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7852\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 117
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}}\par\pard\sect\sectd\fs24\paperw9920\paperh13880\pard\sb0\sl-240{\bkmkstart
Pg119}{\bkmkend Pg119}\par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb194\sl-
250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Reserve
requirement\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : the minimum amount of reserves a
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 credit institution \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 is required to hold with a central bank. In the
minimum reserve framework of \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , the reserve
requirement of a \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 credit
institution\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 is calculated \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 by multiplying the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 reserve
ratio\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 for each category of items in the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 reserve base \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 by the amount of those items on the
institution\u8217?s balance sheet. In addition, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
institutions are allowed to deduct a lump-sum allowance from their reserve \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 requirement. \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb242\sl-
260\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Reverse
transaction\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : an operation whereby the central bank
buys or sells assets \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 under a
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 repurchase agreement\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 or
conducts credit operations against \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
collateral\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-
249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb1\sl-249\slmult0\fi0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stability and Growth
Pact\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : consists of two \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
EU Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Regulations, on \u8220?the \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions
and the surveillance and \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 coordination of
economic policies\u8221? and on \u8220?speeding up and clarifying the \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 implementation of the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
excessive deficit procedure\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 \u8221?, and of a
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Council \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Resolution on the Stability
and Growth Pact adopted at the Amsterdam summit \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
on 17 June 1997. More specifically, budgetary positions close to balance or in
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 surplus are required as the medium-term
objective for \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member
States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 since \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 this
would allow them to deal with normal cyclical fluctuations while keeping \line \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 their government deficit below the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 reference value\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 of 3%
of GDP. In accordance \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 with the Stability and
Growth Pact, countries participating in EMU will submit \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 annual \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 stability
programmes\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , while non-participating countries will
continue \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 to provide annual convergence
programmes. \par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb1\sl-250\slmult0\fi0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stability programmes\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 :
medium-term government plans and assumptions \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
provided by \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
countries regarding the development of key economic \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 variables with a view to the achievement of the medium-term
objective of a \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 budgetary position close to
balance or in surplus as referred to in the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stability
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 and Growth Pact\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
These programmes present measures for the consolidation \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex111 of fiscal balances as well as the underlying economic
scenarios. Stability \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 programmes must be updated
annually. They are examined by the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European \line
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Commission\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 and the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Economic and Financial Committee
(EFC)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . Their reports \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex109 serve as the basis for an assessment by the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 ECOFIN Council\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
focusing in \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 particular on whether the medium-
term budgetary objective in the programme \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 is in
line with a budgetary position close to balance or in surplus, providing for
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 an adequate safety margin to ensure that an
excessive deficit is avoided. \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Countries that
have not yet adopted the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
euro\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 must submit annual convergence \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 programmes, in accordance with the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stability and Growth
Pact\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1700\sb0\sl-240\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1700\ri1546\sb19\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stage One, Stage Two, Stage
Three\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : see \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Economic and
Monetary Union \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
(EMU)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb250\sl-
253\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Standard
tender\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a tender procedure used by the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 in its
regular \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 open
market operations\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . Standard tenders are carried out
within 24 hours. All \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 counterparties\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
fulfilling the general eligibility criteria are entitled to submit \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 bids. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw481
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 118
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250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Standing
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\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 own initiative. The \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Stock market\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : see
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 equity market\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
\par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1543\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Structural
operation\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : an \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 open
market operation\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 executed by the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 mainly in order to adjust the structural liquidity
position of the financial sector \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 vis-�-vis the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Eurosystem\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 .
\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1545\sb242\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Swap\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : an agreement to
exchange future cash flows according to a prearranged \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
formula (see \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 foreign exchange
swap\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ). \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-248\slmult0
\par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb2\sl-248\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 TARGET (Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross
settlement Express \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Transfer
system)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a payment system composed of one real-time
gross settlement \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 (RTGS) system in each of the
EU\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Member States\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 plus
the ECB payment \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 mechanism \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex115 (EPM). The national RTGS systems and the EPM are
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 interconnected by common procedures
(interlinking) to allow cross-border \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 transfers
throughout the European Union to move from one system to another. \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1545\sb243\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Tier one asset\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a
marketable asset fulfilling certain uniform \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 euro
area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 -wide \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 eligibility
criteria specified by the \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European Central Bank
(ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb249\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Tier two
asset\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a marketable or non-marketable asset
fulfilling specific \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 eligibility criteria specified by
a national central bank, subject to \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 European \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Central Bank (ECB)\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
approval. \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb59\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Transmission
mechanism\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : see \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Monetary
policy transmission mechanism\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 . \par\pard\qj
\li1702\sb0\sl-249\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1543\sb8\sl-249\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19
Treaty\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : refers to the Treaty establishing the
European Community. The Treaty \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 was signed in
Rome on 25 March 1957 and entered into force on 1 January \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 1958. It established the European Economic Community (EEC),
which is now \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 the European Community (EC), and
is often referred to as the \u8220?Treaty of Rome\u8221?. \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 The Treaty on European Union (which is often referred to as
the \u8220?Maastricht \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Treaty\u8221?) was signed
on 7 February 1992 and entered into force on 1 November \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 1993. The Treaty on European Union amended the Treaty
establishing the \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 European Community and
established the European Union. The \u8220?Treaty of \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 Amsterdam\u8221?, which was signed in Amsterdam on 2
October 1997 and entered \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 into force on 1 May
1999, amended both the Treaty establishing the European \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 Community and the Treaty on European Union. Equally, the
\u8220?Treaty of Nice\u8221?, \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 which concluded
the 2000 Intergovernmental Conference and was signed on \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 26 February 2001 and entered into force on 1 February 2003,
amended both the \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Treaty establishing the
European Community and the Treaty on European Union. \par\pard\qj \li1702\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \par\pard\qj\li1702\ri1544\sb1\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 Variable rate
tender\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 : a tender procedure whereby the
\ul0\nosupersub\cf58\f59\fs19 counterparties\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 bid both
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the amount of money they want to transact with the
central bank and the interest \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 rate at which they want
to enter into the transaction. \par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7852\posy13451\absw481
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 119
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\par\pard\ql\li1702\sb232\sl-333\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex93
\ul0\nosupersub\cf4\f5\fs29 BIBLIOGRAPHY \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-207\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1702\sb125\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-8\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 CHAPTER 1 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1702\sb66\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Official ECB publications \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1545\sb24\sl-240\slmult0\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ECB (1999), The Eurosystem and the European System of
Central Banks \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 (ESCB),
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
January \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1546\sb20\sl-240\slmult0\tx2098 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 ECB (1999), The institutional framework of the European
System of Central \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Banks,
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
July \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1546\sb20\sl-240\slmult0\tx2098 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 ECB (2003), The adjustment of voting modalities in the
Governing Council, \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
May \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb39\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 ECB (1999
to 2003), \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Annual Reports \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb64\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Other documents \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb22\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 EMI (1998), \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Convergence
Report\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 1998, March \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1544\sb24\sl-240\slmult0\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107 Padoa-
Schioppa, T. (2002), The euro goes East, lecture delivered at the 8th \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Dubrovnik Economic Conference, 29 June 2002
\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb12\sl-250\slmult0\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
Papademos, L. (2001), The completion of the changeover to the euro, speech
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 delivered at the Euro Information
Conference, Athens, 17 October 2001 \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Zilioli, C.
and M. Selmayr (2001), The law of the European Central Bank, Oxford \par\pard\ql
\li2098\sb17\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Press \par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb85\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
7\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 CHAPTER 2 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1702\sb66\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Official ECB publications
\par\pard\ql \li1702\ri1544\sb16\sl-250\slmult0\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ECB (1999), The euro area at the start of Stage
Three, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , January \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 ECB
(1999), \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Possible effects of EMU on the EU banking
systems in the medium \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 to long
term\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , February \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1545\sb0\sl-
260\slmult0\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 ECB (1999), Banking in the euro
area: structural features and trends, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
April \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1545\sb0\sl-260\slmult0\tx2098 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 ECB (1999), The Implementation of the Stability and Growth
Pact, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , May \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb1\sl-189\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 ECB (1999), The balance sheets of the monetary
financial institutions of the euro \par\pard\ql \li2098\sb48\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 area in early 1999, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , August \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1484\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 ECB (2000), The euro area one year
after the introduction of the euro: key \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
characteristics and changes in the financial structure,
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
January \line \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 ECB (2000), The external trade of the
euro area economy: stylised facts and \par\pard\ql \li2098\sb33\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 recent trends, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , August \par\pard\ql \li1702\ri1544\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 ECB (2001), The euro area after the
entry of Greece, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , January \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 ECB
(2001), Characteristics of corporate finance in the euro area,
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , February \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri1544\sb15\sl-240\slmult0\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 ECB (2001),
Financing and financial investment of the non-financial sectors in \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 the euro area, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , May \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1545\sb20\sl-
240\slmult0\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 ECB (2002), Saving, financing and
investment in the euro area, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , August
\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb39\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 ECB
(2002), \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Report on financial
structures\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , October \par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri2531\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 ECB (2003),
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Structural factors in the EU housing
markets\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , March \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 ECB
(2003), \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Money market study
2002\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , November
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7852\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 121
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\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Other documents \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb24\sl-
240\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
Buldorini, L., S. Makrydakis and C. Thimann (2002), The effective exchange
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 rates of the euro, ECB
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Occasional Paper No 2\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
February \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb12\sl-250\slmult0\tx2097 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Gaspar, V., P. Hartmann, O. Sleijpen (eds.) (2003),
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 The transformation of the \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 European financial system\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (Second ECB
Central Banking Conference), June \line \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Genre, V. and
R. G�mez-Salvador (2002), Labour force developments in the euro \par\pard\ql
\li2097\sb17\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 area since the 1980s,
ECB \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Occasional Paper No
4\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , July \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb42\sl-
218\slmult0\tx3624 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Tumpel-Gugerell, G. \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex113 (2003), The volatility of financial markets, speech
\par\pard\qj \li2097\ri1547\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
delivered at the Third Encuentro Financiero Internacional hosted by the \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 Caja Madrid, Madrid, 1 and 2 July 2003 \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1546\sb0\sl-260\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Santill�n,
J., M. Bayle and C. Thygesen (2000), The impact of the euro on money \line\tab \up0
\expndtw-2\charscalex100 and bond markets, ECB \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19
Occasional Paper No 1\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , July \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb45\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
7\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 CHAPTER 3 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb66\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Official ECB publications
\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1548\sb0\sl-260\slmult0\tx2097 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ECB (1999), The stability-
oriented monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem, \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , January \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb0\sl-
260\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 ECB (1999), Euro area monetary
aggregates and their role in the Eurosystem\u8217?s \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 monetary policy strategy, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19
Monthly Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , February \par\pard\ql
\li1700\ri1546\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 ECB
(2000), \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Statistical information collected and
compiled by the ESCB\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , May \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 ECB (2000), Monetary policy transmission in the euro
area, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 July \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb0\sl-
240\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 ECB (2000),
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Statistical requirements of the ECB in the field of
general economic \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100
statistics\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , August \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1547\sb0\sl-240\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 ECB (2000),
The two pillars of the ECB\u8217?s monetary policy strategy,
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , November \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1548\sb16\sl-240\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110 ECB (2001),
Assessment of general economic statistics for the euro area, \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , April \par\pard\ql \li1700\ri1546\sb12\sl-
250\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 ECB (2001), Framework and tools of
monetary analysis, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , May \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 ECB
(2001), \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 A guide to Eurosystem staff macroeconomic
projection exercises\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 June \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 ECB (2001), Issues related to monetary policy rules,
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
October \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 ECB (2002), The stock market and
monetary policy, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , February \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
ECB (2002), Recent findings on monetary policy transmission in the euro area,
\par\pard\ql \li2097\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
October \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb22\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 ECB
(2002), The accountability of the ECB, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , November \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1548\sb24\sl-240\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 ECB (2002),
Transparency in the monetary policy of the ECB, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19
Monthly Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 November \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb20\sl-240\slmult0\tx2097
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex108 ECB (2003), The outcome of the ECB\u8217?s evaluation
of its monetary policy \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 strategy,
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
June \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb20\sl-240\slmult0\tx2097 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 ECB (2003), \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Inflation
differentials in the euro area: potential causes and policy \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 implications\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , September
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 122
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250\slmult0\fi0\tx2098\tx2098\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex111
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Angeloni, I., A. K. Kashyap and B. Mojon (eds.)
(2003), \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monetary policy \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 transmission in the euro
area\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , Cambridge University Press \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex107 Brand, C., D. Gerdesmeier and B. Roffia (2002), Estimating
the trend of M3 \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 income velocity underlying
the reference value for monetary growth, ECB \line \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Occasional Paper No
3\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , May \par\pard\ql \li1702\ri1544\sb0\sl-
253\slmult0\tx2098\tx2098\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Camba-Mendez, G., V.
Gaspar and M. Wynne (2002), \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Measurement issues in
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 European consumer price indices and the
conceptual framework of the \line \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
HICP\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (summary and conclusions of the CEPR/ECB
workshop on issues in \line \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 the measurement of
price indices), July \par\pard\ql \li1702\ri1544\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx2098\tx2098\tx2098\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Duisenberg, W.
(2001), The ECB\u8217?s quantitative definition of price stability and \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 its comparison with such definitions or inflation
targets applied in other \line \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 large economic
areas, letter of the President of the ECB to the Chairperson \line \tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, Mrs
Christa Randzio-\line \tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 Plath, 16 October 2001
\par\pard\ql \li1702\ri1545\sb0\sl-246\slmult0\tx2098\tx2098\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 Duisenberg, W. (2001), The ECB\u8217?s monetary policy strategy and
the quantitative \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex112 definition of price
stability, letter of the President of the ECB to the \line \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Chairperson of the Committee on Economic and Monetary
Affairs, Mrs \line \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Christa Randzio-Plath, 13
December 2001 \par\pard\ql \li1702\ri1544\sb6\sl-
246\slmult0\tx2098\tx2098\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Domingo-Solans, E.
(2003), The importance of Eurostat for the monetary policy \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 of the European Central Bank, speech delivered at the
academic meeting \line \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex109 on the occasion of the
50th anniversary of the Statistical Office of the \line \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 European Communities, Luxembourg, 16 May 2003
\par\pard\ql \li1702\ri1545\sb11\sl-250\slmult0\tx2098\tx2098 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 Domingo-Solans, E. (2003), Official statistics for a global
economy, speech \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 delivered at the 54th
Session of the International Statistical Institute, Berlin, \line \tab \up0
\expndtw-1\charscalex100 20 August 2003 \par\pard\ql \li1702\ri1545\sb0\sl-
253\slmult0\tx2098\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Herrero, A., V. Gaspar, L.
Hoogduin, J. Morgan and B. Winkler (eds.) (2001), \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Why price
stability?\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (First ECB Central Banking Conference),
June \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Issing, O. (1999), The Eurosystem:
Transparent and Accountable, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Journal of \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 Common Market Studies\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
Vol. 37 (3), pp. 503-519 \par\pard\ql \li1702\ri1544\sb0\sl-
253\slmult0\tx2098\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Issing, O. (2000), The
monetary policy of the European Central Bank: strategy \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 and implementation, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Kredit
und Kapital\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , Vol. 15, pp. 353-388 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 Issing, O. (ed.) (2003), Background studies for the
ECB\u8217?s evaluation of its \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 monetary
policy strategy, November \par\pard\qj \li1702\ri1544\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx2098
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Issing, O., V. Gaspar, I. Angeloni and O. Tristani
(2001), \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monetary policy in the \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 euro area: Strategy and decision-making at the European
Central Bank \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
Kl�ckers, H.-J. and C. Willeke (eds.) (2001), \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19
Monetary analysis: Tools and \par\pard\ql \li2098\sb2\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 applications\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 (ECB seminar
proceedings), August \par\pard\ql \li1702\ri1544\sb0\sl-
253\slmult0\tx2098\tx2098\tx2098 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Trichet, J.-C.
(2002), Asset price bubbles and their implications for monetary \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 policy and financial stability, keynote address delivered
at the Asset Price \line \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 Bubbles conference at
the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago/Ill., \line \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 23 April 2002 \par\pard\ql \li1702\sb10\sl-
218\slmult0\tx2927 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Trichet, J.-C. \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 (2003), The ECB monetary strategy after the evaluation
and \par\pard\qj \li2098\ri1546\sb24\sl-240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex107
clarification of May 2003, speech delivered at the Center for Financial \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex102 Studies\u8217? key event, Frankfurt, 20 November 2003
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7852\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 123
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\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb0\sl-207\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb108\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-7\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 CHAPTER 4 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0
\par\pard\ql\li1700\sb66\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-5\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Official ECB publications \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1548\sb24\sl-240\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ECB (1999), The operational framework of the
Eurosystem: description and first \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
assessment, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , May \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb20\sl-
240\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex115 ECB (2000), The switch to variable
rate tenders in the main refinancing \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
operations, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , July \par\pard\ql \li1700\ri1547\sb12\sl-
250\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 ECB (2001), The collateral
framework of the Eurosystem, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , April \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 ECB
(2001), Bidding behaviour of counterparties in the Eurosystem\u8217?s regular
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 open market operations,
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 ,
October \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb17\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 ECB
(2002), The liquidity management of the ECB, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , May \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb24\sl-
240\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 ECB (2003), Changes to the
Eurosystem\u8217?s operational framework for monetary \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 policy, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Monthly
Bulletin\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , August \par\pard\ql \li1700\ri1548\sb12\sl-
250\slmult0\tx2097\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 ECB (2004),
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 The implementation of monetary policy in the euro
area: General \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 documentation on Eurosystem
monetary policy instruments and procedures\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , \line
\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 January \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb59\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Other documents \par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb22\sl-218\slmult0\tx3992 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex110
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Bindseil, U. and F. Seitz \tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex108 (2001), The supply and demand for Eurosystem
\par\pard\ql \li2097\sb42\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 deposits -
the first 18 months, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 ECB Working Paper No
44\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , February \par\pard\ql \li1700\ri1546\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx2097\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Blenck, D., H. Hasko, S.
Hilton and K. Masaki (2001), The main features of the \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 monetary policy frameworks of the Bank of Japan, the
Federal Reserve \line \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 System and the Eurosystem,
published in BIS papers No 9 \par\pard\ql \li1700\ri1547\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0\tx2097\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Ejerskov, S., C. Martin Moss
and L. Stracca (2003), How does the ECB allot \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 liquidity in its weekly main refinancing operations? A look
at the empirical \line \tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 evidence,
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 ECB Working Paper No 244\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19
, July \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1505\sb0\sl-260\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 Manna, M., H. Pill and G. Quir�s (2001), The Eurosystem\u8217?s
operational framework \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100 in the context of its
monetary policy strategy, \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 International
Finance\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , issue 4(1) \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
207\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb59\sl-207\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
7\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 CHAPTER 5 \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb66\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
5\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Official ECB publications
\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb0\sl-260\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Please refer to the following official sources for
detailed information on the \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 monetary policy decisions
of the ECB: \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb45\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 -
Introductory statements to the press conferences of the President of the ECB
\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb22\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 - Editorial
sections of the ECB\u8217?s Monthly Bulletin \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1546\sb24\sl-
240\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 - Statements of the President before the
Committee on Economic and Monetary \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Affairs of the
European Parliament \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb39\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 - ECB Annual Reports \par\pard\ql \li1700\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql\li1700\sb64\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-
4\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf12\f13\fs19 Other documents \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1547\sb0\sl-260\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100
\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 IMF (various), Staff report on the euro area policies
in the context of the Article \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 IV
consultations with euro area countries \par\pard\qj \li1700\ri1547\sb0\sl-
260\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Issing, O. (2000), The ECB\u8217?s
Monetary Policy: Experience after the First Year, \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex100 \ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Journal for Policy
Modelling\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , Vol. 22(3), pp. 325-343 \par\pard\qj
\li1700\ri1546\sb0\sl-260\slmult0\tx2097 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Issing, O.
(2001), The euro - the experience of the past 2 years,
\ul0\nosupersub\cf59\f60\fs19 Journal of Asian \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-
1\charscalex100 Economics\ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 , Vol. 12, pp. 1-20
\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb1\sl-172\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex102 OECD
(various), \u8220?Economic Surveys: Euro Area\u8221?
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw481 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 124
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\expndtw0\charscalex102 \ul0\nosupersub\cf11\f12\fs19 Accountability 13, 51, 66-67,
105\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106 Bilateral
central rate 103\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Bond market 33, 105\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri252\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0\tx1985 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Broad Economic Policy Guidelines
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 (BEPGs) 24, 105\par\pard\ql
\li1702\ri89\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx1985 \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 Central bank
independence 12, 66, 105 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Collateral 46, 74-75,
83, 105 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Consolidated MFI balance sheet \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 35-39,105\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri452\sb0\sl-250\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Convergence criteria 9, 103, 105 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Council (see EU Council)\par\pard\ql \li1702\ri117\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Counterparty 35, 74-75, 83, 105 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Credibility 42, 46-49, 67, 90, 99 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Credit 35-36, 45, 59, 63, 65, 83, 106 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Credit institution 35-39, 71-90, 105 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Currency in circulation 37-38, 106 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Debt ratio 23, 106\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri710\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Debt securities 32-39, 77, 105 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Debt securities market 32-33 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex106
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\expndtw0\charscalex105 Deflation 42-43, 51-54, 107\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Degree of openness 107\par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri336\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx1985 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Deposit
facility 71, 74, 84-85, 97, \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 99,
107\par\pard\ql \li1702\ri91\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx1985 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
Deposits redeemable at notice 37, 107 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Deposits with an
agreed maturity \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 37-38, 77,
107\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
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\expndtw0\charscalex104 Downward nominal rigidities 54 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
ECOFIN 13, 107\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri192\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx1985 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Economic and Financial Committee \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 (EFC) 108\par\pard\qj \li1702\ri565\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx1985 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Economic and Monetary Union
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (EMU) 11, 101-103, 108\par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri459\sb1\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Economic shocks 45,
49, 54, 91 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Effective exchange rates 93, 108 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Equity market 33-34, 108\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb27\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 ERM 103, 109\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 ERM II 102, 109\par\pard\qj
\li1702\ri189\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 EU Council 13, 23-24,
67, 103, 109 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 EU enlargement 11, 109\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Euro 9, 110\par\pard\ql
\li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Euro area 9,
110\par\pard\ql \li1702\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Euro
interbank offered rate\par\pard\ql \li1985\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 (EURIBOR) 31, 109\par\pard\column \ql \li5103\sb0\sl-
218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li20\sb117\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
Euro overnight index average\par\pard\ql \li304\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 (EONIA) 31, 76, 79, 108\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1607\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 European Central Bank (ECB) 9-13,
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 102-103, 110\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri1812\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 European
Commission 13, 23-24, \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 101, 103,
110\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1542\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
European Currency Unit (ECU) 102, \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
108\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1894\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103
European Economic Community \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 (EEC)
101\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1983\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
European Council 9, 13-14, 24, \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 102-
103\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1635\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
European Monetary Institute (EMI) \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 52, 102-
103, 110\par\pard\ql \li20\ri1497\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw-
2\charscalex100 European Monetary System (EMS) 110 \up0 \expndtw-2\charscalex100
European Parliament 13, 67-69, 111 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 European
System of Accounts 1995 \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 (ESA 95)
111\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1685\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
European System of Central Banks \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (ESCB) 9,
102, 111\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
Eurostat 52-53, 59, 111\par\pard\ql \li20\sb00\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Eurosystem 9-13, 111\par\pard\qj \li20\ri2218\sb6\sl-
250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Eurosystem staff projections
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 60-62, 111\par\pard\ql \li20\ri1609\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Excessive deficit procedure 23,
111 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Exchange rate targeting 57, 112 \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Executive Board of the ECB 11, \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 103, 112\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1937\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Financial markets 26-27, 30-35,
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 59-60, 92, 112\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri2201\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Fine-tuning
operation 73-74, \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 82-84, 112\par\pard\ql
\li20\ri1674\sb1\sl-249\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Fixed rate tender 80-
82, 90, 112 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Foreign exchange swap 83-84, 112 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Forward rate agreement (FRA) 112 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Futures contract 104, 112\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1657\sb1\sl-
250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 General Council of the ECB 11-12,
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101 112\par\pard\ql \li20\ri1716\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 General government 21-24, 112
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Governing Council of the ECB 11, \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 44, 112\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1944\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx314 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Harmonised Index of Consumer
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Prices (HICP) 51-53, 112\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri2360\sb0\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Households 22, 45-46,
113 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Inflation 42, 51-55, 113
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx7852\posy13451\absw394 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18 125
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\expndtw0\charscalex105 Inflation risk premium 42, 113 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
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46\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri361\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx1984 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
Key ECB interest rates 76, 91-99, \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
113\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri290\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx1984 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Labour force participation rate 20, \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 113\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Leading indicators 64, 113\par\pard\ql
\li1700\ri124\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx1984 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Loans 26-29,
35-39, 93-97, 113 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex100 Longer-term refinancing
operation 73, \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 82, 113\par\pard\ql
\li1700\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 M1 37, 65, 93, 97,
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113\par\pard\ql \li1700\ri73\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx1984 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
M3 37-38, 62-65, 94, 97, 113 \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Maastricht Treaty
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82, \line\tab \up0 \expndtw-1\charscalex100 114\par\pard\ql \li1700\ri94\sb0\sl-
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\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Marginal lending facility 73-76, 114 \line
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Member State 9, 11, 101-103, 114 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Minimum bid rate 80, 82, 90, 95, 97, \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 99, 114\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri242\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx1984
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Monetary aggregates 36-38, 62-65, \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 114\par\pard\ql \li1700\ri361\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx1984
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Monetary base 41, 71, 77-78, 114 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex106 Monetary financial institutions \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 (MFIs) 35-39, 115\par\pard\ql \li1700\ri125\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx1984 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Monetary policy strategy 41-70, 115
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Monetary policy transmission \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 mechanism 44-49, 115\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri581\sb0\sl-
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\expndtw0\charscalex103 Money demand 56, 115\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb27\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw-3\charscalex100 Money market 26, 30-32,
115\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri187\sb6\sl-250\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Money
market funds 35-36, 39, 115 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Neutrality of money 41,
115\par\pard\ql \li1700\ri312\sb1\sl-249\slmult0\tx1984\tx1984 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Nominal effective exchange rates \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 (see effective exchange rates) \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Non-financial corporations 32-33, \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 116\par\pard\qj \li1700\ri593\sb1\sl-250\slmult0\tx1984
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Open market operations 73-74, \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 79-84, 116\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Opportunity cost 63, 116\par\pard\ql \li1700\sb00\sl-
218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Option 30, 116
\par\pard\qj\pvpg\phpg\posx1771\posy13451\absw394 \ul0\nosupersub\cf8\f9\fs18
126\par\pard\column \ql \li5102\sb0\sl-218\slmult0 \par\pard\ql \li5102\sb0\sl-
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Outright transaction 83-84, 116 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Overnight deposits 37-
38, 77, 116 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Pension fund 27-29, 39, 116\par\pard\ql
\li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Predictability
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Price stability 9-13, 41-55, 91, 117 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Projections (see
Eurosystem staff \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 projections)\par\pard\ql
\li20\ri1852\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx313\tx313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Real
effective exchange rates \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 (see effective
exchange rates) \line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Reference value for monetary
\line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 growth 62-64, 117\par\pard\qj
\li20\ri2130\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 Reference value
for the fiscal \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105 position 23,
117\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1533\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
Repurchase agreement 37-38, 74-75, \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 77, 83,
117\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1637\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
Repurchase operation (repo) 83-84, \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex101
117\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Reserve base
77-79, 117\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex105
Reserve ratio 77-79, 117\par\pard\ql \li20\ri1521\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx313 \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Reserve requirement 77-79, 118 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 Reverse transaction 73-74, 83-84, 118 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Risks to price stability 55-56, 63-66, \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 91-99\par\pard\qj \li20\ri1822\sb0\sl-250\slmult0\tx313
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Stability and Growth Pact 21, 23, \line\tab \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex103 101, 118\par\pard\ql \li20\ri1606\sb0\sl-
250\slmult0\tx313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Stability programmes 23, 118
\line \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 Stage Three of EMU (see Economic \line\tab
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex103 and Monetary Union (EMU)) \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Standard tender 75, 80, 82, 84, 118 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Standing facility 73-77, 87, 119 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Stock market (see equity market) \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex105 Structural operation 73, 84, 119 \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex104 Swap (see foreign exchange swap) \line \up0
\expndtw0\charscalex101 TARGET 31, 119\par\pard\ql \li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0
\up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Tier one asset 75, 119\par\pard\ql \li20\sb32\sl-
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\li20\ri1834\sb6\sl-250\slmult0\tx313\tx313 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104
Transmission mechanism (see \line\tab \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Monetary policy
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\li20\sb27\sl-218\slmult0 \up0 \expndtw0\charscalex104 Variable rate tender 80-82,
90, 119
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