ACoolLookatGlobalWarming

Presentationto SydneyLegacy at Level1,AWABuilding 47YorkStreet,Sydney

PhilipR.Wood VicePresident,TheLavoisierGroup

Thursday30June2011

Istheendoftheworldreallynigh?

DuststormasIdroveacrossSydneyHarbourBridgeat6:30amon Wednesday23September2009

There is no opinion, however absurd, which men will not readily embrace as soon as they can be brought to the conviction that it is generally adopted.
(Schopenhauer, Die Kunst Recht zu Behalten)

TheAustralianpublicfail theknowledgetestoncarbon.
53% 40% 37% 93% 47% 37% 44% believeclimatechangecausestsunamis believeclimatechangecausesearthquakes believeclimatechangecausesvolcaniceruptions thinkCO2 constitutesmorethan1%oftheatmosphere thinkCO2 ispollution thinkweshouldtrytoreducecarboninthebody thinkfoodanddrinkwouldbesaferifithadnocarbonorCO2 init

ButIwanttostartwithfactsthat wecanallagreeupon:
(globalwarmingalarmistsandrealistsalike)

CarbonDioxide(CO2)is:
1. Atinytracegas(385partspermillion:lessthan atwentyfifthof1%oftheatmosphere) 2. Naturallyoccurring 3. Invisible 4. Odourless 5. Nontoxic 6. Necessaryforallplantlife(photosynthesis) 7. Emittedbyallanimallife(breathingetc.)

SowhyisCO2 calledapollutant?
Remarkableanswer: Becauseitisagreenhousegas even thoughgreenhousegasesmakePlanet Earthliveable(+14oCcurrentaverage globaltemperature,ratherthan19oC otherwise)

Whenwehearthewords carbonpollutionweare listeningtoanoxymoron.

Carbonisthemostusefulelementonearth.Inadditionto diamonds,graphite,coal,oilandnaturalgas,carbonisthe buildingblockofeverylivingplantandanimalcell.Inthe atmosphereitisnaturallypresentintraceamountsas carbondioxide(CO2)andmethane(CH4).

OneoftheBigPolluterskeepingourlightson!

Bayswater Power Station (Hunter Valley, NSW) operating at maximum capacity The visible white gas is steam from the cooling towers, with the tall chimneys emitting invisible CO2

Greenhousegases,inorderofimportance,comprise:
Watervapour(H2O) CarbonDioxide(CO2) Methane(CH4),NitrousOxide (N2O),etc. 97% 2% 1%

Sofluffyrainclouds(H2O),yourexhaledbreath(40,000 ppm CO2,8,000ppm insubmarines)andcowbelches (CH4)areallvillainouspollutants!

Humankindcurrentlycontributes3% of theEarthsproductionofatmosphericCO2. The97% balanceofnaturallyoccurring CO2 productionissplitbetweenanimals, vegetationandsoils(53%)andtheoceans (44%).Boththelandbasedbiosphereand theoceanbasedaquaspherealsoabsorb hugeamountsofCO2.

CarbonDioxideCycle

AnnualCarbonCyclebetweentheOceans,VegetationandSoils, HumankindandtheAtmosphere N.B.Theoceanscontain50timesmoreCO2thantheatmosphere.

EyjafjallajokulVolcanoEruptsinIcelandin2010

Mt.PuyehueEruptsinChilein2011

CO2 isatinytracegasintheEarthsatmosphere

Humanitymakesaminusculecontribution toCO2 itselfatinybutvitalandnatural tracegas.

Ifonlyhumankindcouldemit moreCO2!

BenefitsofCarbonDioxide
Doublingcurrent CO2 levelswould improvefoodcropyieldsaslistedbelow:

Wheat Legumes Othercereals Fruits Tubercrops Vegetables

60% 62% 70% 33% 67% 51%

Between1950andtheearly1990s,worldpopulationX2.2,foodproductionX2.7 19702000sawa15%percapitaincreaseinfoodconsumption

CO2 isPlantFood
HereiswhathappensoveroneyearwithmoreCO2

385 ppm (presentambient)

535ppm

685ppm

835ppm

Cruelia starvesthetrees!

ThewarmingeffectofCO2 declineslogarithmically

Thefirst20ppmCO2 intheatmospherehasagreatereffect thanthefollowing300ppm.TheincrementaleffectofincreasingCO2 atthe present385ppmlevelisalmostimmeasurable.

Australiacontributes1.4%ofglobal anthropogenicgreenhouseemissions.

HistoricandProjectedAtmosphericCarbonContributionsbytheUnitedStates, ChinaandAustralia

Australiascommitment
Thebasecasebipartisanplanisto reduceAustraliasemissionsby5%by 2020.

ETScasualty

Nextcasualty?

ETScasualty

Finalvictor?

Thisarbitrarycommitmentwouldtherefore havehadthefollowingannualimpactonthe worldsgreenhouseeffect:

100%x2%x3%x10%x1.5%x5%=0.0000045%

orabouta22millionth!
(EqualtoonehumanstepinatrekaroundtheEarthsequator!)

AndyettheGreenstellusthatAustralias failuretocutCO2 emissionswill

destroytheGreatBarrierReef reduceagriculturalproductioninthe MurrayDarlingBasinby90%by2100 duetodrought inundateAustraliascoastalhomes melttheSnowyMountainsskifields ruinKakaduNationalPark Theyneverexplainhoworwhy!

Senator Bob Brown, The Australian Greens

Brisbane1893~118yearsago!

So,tojustifythishugenationaleffort foreffectivelyniloutcome,carbon dioxidemustbetherealvillainof catastrophicGlobalWarming:

Right?

Wrong!

600MillionYearsofTemperatureandCO2 shownocorrelation. Overthelast150millionyears,geologicalprocesseshavetaken 90%ofthecarbondioxideoutoftheatmosphere.

Temperature,CO2 andsealevelsforthelast20,000years

Relativestabilityduringthemostrecent7,000yearswhenhumancivilizationhas advancedmostrapidly.

Stabletemperaturerangesince endoflasticeage

Overthelast5,000yrstherewerethree warmperiods(green sections)whereitwaswarmerthantodayandtheEarthsurvived whilehumancivilizationflourished!

WhatisEarthsnormaltemperature? HistoricalEvidence TheLast1,000years

IndustrialAge:1850 present
Globallyaveragedtemperaturevariationsbetween1850and 2000showtheemergencefromtheLittleIceAgeintheearly 1900s,slightcoolinginthe1940stothe1970s,andthen warmingagainsincethe1970s,followedbycoolingsince1998.

SatelliteMeasurements: 1979 2011

NorecentcorrelationbetweenrisingCO2 and slightlycoolingtemperature

Exactlywhatclimatechange?
Globaltemperaturehasgentlydeclinedoverthepastdecade. Bothpolaricecapsarecurrentlyincreasing. Sealevelscontinuethesamegentleminusculerise. Cyclones/hurricanesarethesameasever. TheMurrayDarlingbasinisawash. TheGreatBarrierReefisthriving. BountifulSnowyMountainsskiseason,etc.,etc

Sotherhetoricallanguagehaschanged: whatwasonceglobalwarmingandthenclimate change,hasbecomepollution,priceoncarbon, energysecurityandgreenjobsinthegreen economy.

DidntAlGoresaytheArcticIcewill begoneby2012?
ThegraphofArcticIcecoverof thelastsevenyears,shows2007 astheyearwiththeleasticecover sincesatelliteshavebeenused(in 1979theystarted) In2007somepeoplemadea guessthatthewarmingtrend wouldcontinue.AlGoreand othershaverepeatedthatguess. Sincethenthearcticicecoverhas increased. Anecdotalevidenceshowstherewereperiodswhenicecoverwaslessthanin2007, (e.g.shipsinthe1930snavigatedthenorthwestpassagewithouttheassistanceofice breakersorGPStrackingoficefloes),sothereisnothingunusualaboutthelevelsof ArcticIcewehavetoday Arcticpolarbearpopulationhasincreasedfrom5,00050yearsagoto25,000today.

SydneyHarbourwillrisethelengthofyourlittlefinger (6cm)this21st century,justasitdidlastcentury.

SealevelmeasurementsatFortDenison

MurrayDarlingBasinYearlyRainfall 1900TO2010

Arecyclonesincreasing?No!

Everythingpresentedsofarhasbeenindisputable empiricallyobserveddata. Globalwarmingadvocateshavenochoicebuttoagree, eveniftheyarereluctanttobeopenwithusallonthese matters. Thedifferencecomeswhencomputermodellingthefuture: rubbishin,rubbishout! "Peopleunderestimatethepowerofmodels.Observational evidenceisnotveryuseful.Ourapproachisnotentirely empirical."
JohnMitchell,principalresearchscientistattheUKMetOffice

Nocomputermodelhaseversuccessfullypredictedfuture globaltemperature.Theinputsaretoomany,toocomplex andoftenunknown.

TheIPCCsboguscomputermodels
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangesetupin1988 underUNauspices Doesnotcarryoutresearchormonitorclimate Assimilatesavailableinformationtoinformgovernmentsof theworldviacomputerizedprojections Globalquasimonopolyofofficialscientificadvice Hasmutatedintoapoliticallycorrectalarmistpressure group Notorioushockeystickquietlydroppedfromlatest2007 Report JointwinnerwithAlGoreoftheNobelPeace Prize!
IftheIPCCwasntthere,whywouldanyonebeworriedabout climatechange? RajendraPachauri,ChairmanoftheUNIntergovernmentalPanel onClimateChange,Science,February5,2010

TheIPCCsHockeyStick

AnexposedscientificfraudknowinglymisusedbyAlGoreinhismovie AnInconvenientTruth.Whatanironicname!

Whydidsomanyscientistsgetitwrong?

Climategatebreakson20 November2009 Theemailshavediscredited mostoftheleadIPCC authors.

Recommendedreading:ClimategateAnalysisbyJohnCostella
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/reprint/climategate_analysis.pdf

TheIPCCmodelspredictmonotonic warming,buttheyarealreadywrong!

LeadingGlobalWarmingAlarmists
International AlGore/IPCC(JointNobelPeacePrizewinners).SirNicholas Stern(AuthoroftheU.K.GovernmentsSternReview). AustralianPoliticians AlloftheALP(JuliaGillard,KevinRudd,Penny Wong,PeterGarrett,GregCombet,etc.butMartinFerguson?),some Liberals(MalcolmTurnbull,etc.),alloftheGreens(BobBrown,Christine Milne,etc.).Independents?(TonyWindsor,RobOakeshott) AustralianProfessionals(generally) Governmentdepartments, academics,CSIRO,media(includingABCandFairfax),greenindustry corporates,financiers,lawyersandaccountants,NGOs,etc. AustralianGovernmentAppointees TimFlannery(2007Australianofthe Year.AuthorofTheWeatherMakers.AustraliasClimateChange Commissioner).RossGarnaut(AuthoroftheAustralianGovernments ClimateChangeReport).

LeadingGlobalWarmingSceptics
Politicians FormerALPministers(PeterWalsh,MichaelCosta,etc.), mostLiberals(TonyAbbott,NickMinchin,CoryBernardi, DennisJensen,AndrewRobb,etc.),allNationals (includingBarnabyJoyce,RonBoswell,JohnWilliams, etc.),Independents?(BobKatter) BobCarter,IanPlimer,BillKininmoth,DavidEvans,Garth Paltridge,JenniferMarohasy,JoanneNova,David Archibald RayEvans(LavoisierGroup) VivForbes(CarbonSenseCoalition) MaxRheese(AustralianClimateScienceCoalition) LeonAshby(ClimateScepticsParty) AndrewBolt,MirandaDevine,TerryMcCrann,Christopher Pearson,PiersAkerman,AlanJones,TheAustralian newspaper,talkbackradio

Scientists

Lobbyists

Journalists

Archbishopsand CardinalGeorgePell,LordMonckton,LordNigelLawson Aristocrats!

TheLabor/Green/IndependentGovernmentsProposed CarbonTax
Multibilliondollarperannumcarbontax:i.e.greatbignew taxoneverything!Whoarethe1000bigpolluters? Createsmassivedistortionsinoureconomy Directlyreducesinternationalcompetitiveness Producesgrindingcompliancecostsandbureaucratic interventiontocushionadverseindustryandhousehold impactsforpoliticalexpediency Providesabonanzaforthefinancialandprofessionalservices, greenindustriesandgovernmentdepartmentswhichwilltake commissions,fees,subsidiesandtaxesfromthecashflow badluckfortheproductivesector,thetaxpayerandthe consumer!

Butnow,thePeoplesAssemblyhasbeen scrappedfora MultiPartyClimateChangeCommittee

Eligibilityrequiresbeliefthatthescienceis settledandthatapriceoncarbonwill providecertaintytobusiness. Theonlycertainpriceoncarbonisnottohave oneatall.

TheGillard/BrownGovernments ClimateChangeCommission
TheCommissionisanindependentbodysetupbythe federalgovernmenttoprovideinformationonclimate changeandhelpinformthedebate ABCSpokeswoman30April,2011 Infact,thetaxpayerfundedCommissionisabiased propagandamachinecomprisedentirelyofclimate changealarmiststryingtostifleonesideofthedebate. NowtheGovernmentapparentlyneedstaxpayerstofund a$12millionadvertisingcampaigntoconvincean increasinglydubiouspublic.

BusinessCertainty? If the policy doesnt reduce carbon then it is purely a tax. The other problem is that under this policy, at any time in the future the government of the day can change the cost of carbon so there is no certainty for us to make investment decisions. PaulOMalley ChiefExecutiveOfficer BluescopeSteel

Politicalplainspeakonthecarbontax The document obviously contemplates broad coverage of the economy but it also leaves open the discussion that we need to have about how that might be dealt with, whether or not we phase the scheme into different sectors of the economy but the important thing again is the PM acknowledged there are price impacts in the economy from a carbon price and also indicated, as you would expect from a Labor government, that we will assist those people who need the assistance the most, in particular obviously pensioners and low income households will be firmly in our mind and we will ensure that every dollar raised from the carbon price mechanism is committed to help households and to help industry make the transition to lower emissions in the future. GregCombet MinisterforClimateChange There.Hopefullythatsclearedthingsup!

20%RenewableEnergyTargetby2020
Currently7% Mostrenewableenergyispresentlyhydro(5%withlittlescope forincrease)andbagassefromsugarcane(1%) Windandsolar(1%)donotproducebaseloadpower (thereforerequire~85%baseloadbackup) Baseloadfromgeothermalhotrocksdifficultandisolated Uranium(stillruledoutpoliticallyinAustralia) CarbonGeoSequestration(expensive,nonuniformand unproven)
N.B.Alloftheabovenewtechnologiesaremuchmoreexpensivethan coalfiredpower.ThereforeAustralianelectricitypriceswillcontinue torocketupwards.

TheAustralianNewspaper 30August2010

NSWGovtsDesalinationPlant&WindFarm: CombinationoftwoWhiteElephants!

Aerialviewofthe$2bnKurnellDesalinationPlantunder constructionwhileSydneysdamsfillup

Sitevisitto$100mCapitalWindFarmnearLake GeorgebyPhilipWoodonSunday11April2010

ThefinanciallyembattledNSW LaborGovernmentspentyour moneyonscientificallyilliterate scaremongering. Thethreatofacarbondioxide taxcosttheNSWtaxpayer$10 billioninthesaleofelectricity generatingassets.

Hilarious! WorldLeadersmeettodiscuss controllingtheclimate

Copenhagen,December2009

ThehubrisofaGreektragedy

"Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket. -Eric Hoffer
(The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements)

"It is error alone which needs the support of government. Truth can stand by itself." -Thomas Jefferson

TheSpanishExperienceinpast5years
(similarclimateandGDPtoAustralia) Householdelectricitycostsup30%,despitegovernmentsubsidy Industryelectricitycostsup100% BusinessesandjobsthereforeleavingSpain Unemployment20%andrising EverygreenjobcoststhetaxpayerUS$770,000 2.2realjobslostforeverygreenjobcreated Lackofbaseloadpowermeanselectricitysupplyhasbecome unreliable ThisistheSpanishexampleadvocatedbytheObama Administration! SpanishGovernmentisnowwithholdingsubsidiesbecauseit cantaffordthem. Clickon:http://www.juandemariana.org/pdf/090327employmentpublicaidrenewable.pdf

Will2020be. liketheLittleIceAge?

.Or,instead,the MediaevalWarmPeriod? Nooneknows! Weneedtoprepareforeither TheIPCCsplanhasnt worked,wontworkandcant work. Whatshouldwedo?

Letus
appreciateandtrustNatureswondrous dynamicenvironmentandceaseourclimatefear. Instead,wewillfocusourcreativity,energyand resourcesonthetimelesschallengeofadaptingto naturalchangesinourclimateandoneliminating real manmadepollutiontoexpressourinherent carefortheEarth.

PhilipR.Wood VicePresident TheLavoisierGroup

Phone:+61(0)438675501 Email:philip@intec.com.au Web:www.lavoisier.com.au