Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
The Importance of the Dublin City Region............................................ 2 Emerging Trends Relating to City Regions ........................................... 3
1. The Increasing Importance of Cities as drivers of economic growth ................... 3 2. Increasing Globalisation as Reflected in the Movement of Goods, Services, Finance, People and Technology ............................................................................. 4 3. The Move Towards a Knowledge Intensive Global Economy................................ 6 4. The Importance of Innovation for Growth........................................................... 7 5. The Rapid Growth in Emerging Economies ........................................................ 10 6. Changing Demographics.................................................................................... 11
Developing Dublin as an Open and Internationalised City.................. 13 Implications for the Dublin City Region.............................................. 14
Relative position of the Dublin City Region ........................................................... 14 Areas requiring further investigation: Talent, Telecommunications, Transport ..... 15
Endnotes ............................................................................................ 16
Acknowledgements:
Dublin Chamber of Commerce would like to sincerely thank those involved in the preparation of this report, including Jamie Cudden, Dublin City Council; Mary Keeling, IBM; Jacqueline Hall, Dublin Chamber Council Member; Patrick King, Dublin Chamber; and, in particular, the project chair Ciaran Ennis, Dublin Chamber Council Member. This paper draws heavily on work carried out by Dublin City Councils Economic Research Unit and IBMs Institute for Business Value, for which Dublin Chamber is most grateful to both institutions. This paper has also been heavily influence by the contributions of the Dublin Chambers Council and by the many members who gave their insight and experience to the project.
The Dublin City Region is now part of a highly connected truly global economy where transactions are being carried across international borders to all corners of the globe. To thrive, Dublin needs to continue to be open and internationalised. Indeed this need will intensify in the future, driven by the following trends: 1. The increasing importance of cities as drivers of economic growth; 2. Increasing globalisation as reflected in the movement of goods, services, finance, people and technology; 3. The move towards a knowledge intensive economy; 4. The importance of innovation for growth; 5. The rapid growth in emerging economies; and 6. Changing demographics. In the following sections, these factors are examined in more detail.
FIGURE 1 18 Other initiatives such as The Carbon Disclosure Project-The Case for City Disclosure recognise the increasing economic importance of cities and the pivotal roles that they can play in tackling climate change19. The Siemens Green City Index in conjunction with the EIU benchmarks the green credentials of global cities20. It is clear then that cities play a critically important role in their national economies as well as in the global economy. What is more, this trend is set to continue with cities becoming even more important going forward. For example, it is expected that by 2030 over 59% of the worlds population will be based in cities, rising to 69% by 2050. Much of the worlds wealth will also continue to be concentrated in cities. It is forecast that GDP per capita for the top 600 cities in the world will rise from $23,000 in 2007 to $38,000 in 202521. This means that the rationale for focusing efforts to generate growth at city level and for Dublin City Region to develop a City Region Plan not only makes more sense than ever but will put Dublin in a position to better respond to this increasingly significant global trend of the growing importance of cities.
2. Increasing Globalisation as Reflected in the Movement of Goods, Services, Finance, People and Technology
Globalisation as a phenomenon is not new it has been occurring in waves over the last millennium and indeed throughout human history. What is new, though, is the pace and scope of the current wave, which is unprecedented22. The proportion of goods and services that are traded grew from 19% in 1990 to 29% in 2008 an increase of over 50%23. Over the same period, the number of transnational companies (TNCs) has more than doubled from around 35,000 to 82,00024. The value of the average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.98 trillion, a growth of approximately 20% over the $3.21 trillion daily volume as of April 200725.
What is also new in this current wave of globalisation is that it encompasses not just capital, trade and people flows, but also technology. Technology is spreading more widely and is taking hold more deeply than ever before26. Between 2000 and 2011, world Internet usage increased by over 480% from 361 million to just under 2.1 billion. Some of the biggest increases in penetration were seen in developing countries27. This will continue in the future as of the 4.8 billion people not online in 2011, 3.8 billion of them are in Africa and Asia.28 Due to their small size in the international context, Dublin and Ireland have had to respond to the opportunities that globalisation creates. In fact, Ireland is now the second most globalised country in the world and is on course to being the most globalised country by 201229. The Dublin City Region has an extremely successful track record in attracting and retaining foreign direct investment. It also has an impressive performance in terms of trade. To put export performance in context, as illustrated in Figure 2, Ireland accounted for less than 3% of total global service exports and about 1% of total global merchandise exports in 200830. Yet as a country its population accounts for just 0.07% of the global total. And exports are one of the positives to emerge from the Irish economy with strong export performance for 2010 reaching the highest levels ever with 161 billion of exports an increase of almost 7% over 200931.
FIGURE 2 The trend of the growing importance of cities in the global economy coupled with the intensifying pace of globalisation means that Dublins future economic growth depends on sustaining and improving its trade performance by continuing to grow the amount of goods services traded internationally. It must also sustain its performance in attracting FDI and it must, as a city region, ensure that it continues to embrace the trend of the growing globalisation of technology so that it is not left behind. The current economic crisis has reinforced the requirement for Ireland and Dublin to further internationalise. It is now clear that Ireland cannot rely on its domestic economy to deliver growth levels that are required to maintain current living standards. The Dublin City Region embraces the concept of internationalisation which is about building connections and respecting traditions and cultures while embracing the opportunities that globalisation brings.
Higher Skilled
Medium Skilled
-18.3
FIGURE 3 34 Cities contain an increasingly large share of these highly skilled, educated, creative and entrepreneurial individuals that are becoming key drivers of growth. However these people are highly mobile and willing to move to cities where the economic opportunities lie and this is very much linked to quality of place (see Figure 4). In fact, research has found that living conditions have such critical influences on the attractiveness of a location that migration to locations with more attractive living conditions can occur even if earnings there are lower35. In terms of magnitude, the number of highly educated international migrants around the world is expected to more than triple from 29.5 million workers in the 1990s to almost 99 million in the next decade and 35% of migrants to mature economies have a college/university degree36. International trends also show significant growth levels in the mobility of international students. The numbers of international students studying abroad are constantly rising, from 600,000 in 1975 to 2.7m in 2005. This number is predicted to have tripled again by 2025.37
FIGURE 4 38 While this is good news for Dublin in the sense that there is a larger pool of skilled and educated migrants and students to try and attract, it also means that the city will face intensifying competition from other cities to attract and retain those same migrants. There is thus a pressing need to recognise the importance of developing home grown talent through Irelands universities and institutes so that Dublin is well positioned to drive growth in the future. Government must ensure that Dublin is well positioned to attract talent in areas that it cannot produce enough home grown talent. In attracting and developing talent, it will be important to ensure that skills are matched to the current and future needs of the economy. In spite of the high unemployment that prevails at present, there are areas, such as information technology, where significant numbers of positions remain unfilled. Furthermore, attention will also need to be focused on improving educational outcomes across the board so that those with lower skills will not be disadvantaged in terms of their employment prospects given these trends. Thus, future skills strategies for the Dublin City Region must respond to these global trends and include elements that focus on talent creation, attraction and retention.
FIGURE 5 Innovation is a key driver of economic growth. New products and services that are developed help to create new streams of revenue, attract new customers, and provide better goods and services. Changes to processes can help drive efficiency and productivity improvements in firms as well as helping to reduce costs and increase profit margins. Cities are crucibles of innovation. The critical role of cities in speeding up the transfer of knowledge has long been recognized in economic and other literature by Jane Jacobs, Richard Florida and Peter Hall40. Innovation concentrates and succeeds best in cities for a number of reasons; three of these are proximity, density and variety41. Proximity reduces transaction costs, density intensifies learning, and variety increases possibilities. This basic urban offer makes markets work better, helps firms become more productive and is an ideal environment for knowledge based employment. The EU Commissioner for Research, Innovation and Science has noted that Cities not only breed innovation but they also need innovation42. The importance of the role played by Dublin in relation to R&D is illustrated in Figure 643.
FIGURE 6
The important role played by TCD and UCD can be clearly seen in Figure 744.
Most active organisations in terms of EC contribution granted to the FP7 research projects
FIGURE 7 Successful cities attract talented young highly-skilled workers, are centres of innovation and entrepreneurship and are competitive locations for global and regional headquarters. The proximity of universities to research and production facilities means cities are where new products are advantages such as more diversified economic base with higher specialisation in productive activities, a strong innovative capacity (more than 81% of OECD patents are filed by applicants located in urban regions), and a higher level of skills.45 The recent economic downturn has demonstrated the importance for Ireland and for Dublin of innovating to grow a more diverse economy in order to be more resilient to economic shocks, such as the one Ireland is currently experiencing. For example, there was an overconcentration of Irish economic activity in construction during the boom - in 2006, the construction industry in Ireland represented 24% of national GDP employing 1 in 7 people. This compares to just 4.9% of GDP in the US for the same year and less than 1 in 17 people in employment46. The negative impact that the downturn in that industry had on the overall economy underscores the need for Dublin and Ireland to innovate so they can be more diverse and resilient. Realising the future potential of the Dublin City Region is dependent on its ability to innovate. The City needs to be a place where leading companies want to invest, a place where talented people spin off innovative businesses and a place that attracts talented people. This is important in what are considered high-tech and knowledge intensive sectors such as biotech, pharma, software development, and financial services. But it is also important to realise that Dublin will not be able to realise the full potential and impact from innovation if the policy focus is defined in narrow terms just on these sectors. The potential for innovation to drive economic growth and job creation for the Dublin City Region can also be realised by ensuring that other sectors that are important for the Dublin economy such as retail, for example can fully leverage the possibilities presented by using the latest information technology to generate greater insight into customer wants and needs, as well as drive efficiency savings and productivity improvements. But this will only happen if firms are capable of absorbing and
using this latest technology. So it is important to ensure that the right frameworks and policies are in place across the spectrum of innovation to foster invention, absorption and use, particularly in the numerous small and medium sized enterprises in the City Region which collectively have the potential to have a massive impact on jobs and growth. Any strategy that Dublin builds or develops with regard to innovation also needs to link in with the strategy on knowledge and skills, since skilled and talented individuals are critical for the innovation process. In addition, there is a positive feedback between innovation and knowledge and skills in the sense that talent becomes an increasingly valued resource when combined with technological innovation47. Furthermore, Dublins strategy for innovation must take account of how technology is being increasingly embedded in the global economy. There is much talk globally of smart growth. Dublin must ensure that it too has a strategy in place to leverage the advantages of technology in a way that drives innovation and maximises the value and impact of talent to make Dublin a Smart open and internationalised city.
10
FIGURE 8 It is also clear from these trends that there will be new market opportunities in cities in emerging markets. For Dublin to capitalise on these opportunities and take advantage of them will require a shift in strategic focus to cities and countries in the developing world. In fact, there is potential for Dublin to have a first mover advantage in European terms in relation to these opportunities, for example in the area of innovation. Research has shown that while 24% of innovating firms collaborate within national boundaries, just 11% collaborate with other firms in the EU, and just 1.2% collaborate for innovation with firms in India or China.50
6. Changing Demographics
The EU is facing a number of key demographic challenges. Firstly, the EU27 population is projected to increase from 501 million in 2010 and peak at 526 million around 2040, and thereafter gradually decline to 517 million in 206051. With population increasing relatively rapidly in Africa and India for example, it is forecast that Europes share of the global population will decline to 7.6% by 2050. The extent of the change varies widely across the EU, with an increase in the population of fourteen Member States and a fall in thirteen. The strongest population growth is projected to be found in Ireland (+46%). This is a phenomenal increase in population to have to cope with. Dublin as a city must ensure that is has a strategy in place to cope with the proportion of this increase that will affect the city given the impact this will have on the demand for housing, transport, water and other key services demanded by citizens and businesses. Other EU countries such as, Luxembourg (+45%), Cyprus (+41%), the United Kingdom (+27%), Belgium (+24%) and Sweden (+23%) are also forecast to experience significant changes. At the same time, a number of countries will experience sharp falls in their
11
population with the sharpest declines in Bulgaria (-27%), Latvia (-26%), Lithuania (-20%), Romania and Germany (both -19%). Aside from these aggregate changes, there is a global trend in relation to ageing populations. The proportion of older persons will double in the world by 2050 and the number of workingage people per older person is expected to drop globally by more than 50% over the next four decades52. Between 2009 and 2050, the median age of the worlds population is projected to increase by about 10 years with the median age in the more developed regions 13 years higher than in the less developed regions and 20 years higher than in the least developed countries. Europe also faces an issue with ageing populations. The EU27 population is projected to continue to grow older, with the share of the population aged 65 years and over rising from 17% in 2010 to 30% in 2060. In addition, those aged 80 will increase as a share of the overall population from 5% to 12% over the same period. Currently, there are little more than four persons of working age per older person in Europe and by 2050 their number will have decreased to little more than two53. Irelands population will also age. The number of people over 65 will rise from about 522,000 now to over 1.4 million in 2050 a colossal increase of 168% meaning that the proportion of the population aged over 65 will rise from just 11% now to nearly 24% in 205054. The proportion of the population of working age to those who are dependent (i.e. less than 15 and older than 65) will rise from 49% now to 73% in 205055. When the ageing trend is considered in tandem with the trend relating to the growing importance of skills and knowledge in driving growth, it is clear that Dublin will face a significant challenge in generating growth in the future if the proportion of the population of working age is not equipped with the skills necessary to drive growth. This means that even with a shrinking workforce, the trend can be ameliorated if measures are taken now to ensure that the workforce contains individuals with the higher education and skills increasingly important for driving growth. By the same token, failing to take action now will mean that this already adverse trend will impact even more negatively on Dublins future growth prospects and potential. The end result of this demographic trend is also that heavier demands in terms of taxes and charges - will be placed on the working age population to support older populations. In addition, to stave off the negative impact of the rising dependency ratio, the competition for skills will intensify across countries and cities in particular. Dublin and Ireland need to ensure that they are well positioned to attract the right type of talent and skills. Of course, ensuring that talent creation here is adequate will also reduce the reliance on having to attract that talent from abroad and so insulate Ireland to some extent from this global trend. The impact of the demographic changes will affect society as a whole - ageing populations and shrinking workforces will have serious implications on labour markets, pensions and provisions for healthcare, housing, or social services.
12
13
FIGURE 9 Access to clients and availability of remain at first and second position in terms of importance year on year. Quality of telecommunications and transport links with other cities remain at positions three and four. This may suggest that companies require access to clients and talent both physically and digitally.
14
In order to gain a deeper insight into the performance of Dublin, its performance across each of the topics was compared to that of four other European cities. The cities chosen were Frankfurt, Copenhagen, Vienna and Geneva. These cities were chosen on the basis that they each share some characteristics with Dublin and data relating to them was available across a fairly broad range of topic. It was felt that comparing Dublin to major cities such as Paris or London would not be realistic. The table below illustrates the relative position of Dublin. Green denotes topics where Dublin ranks in number 1st or 2nd position, amber denotes 3rd position, and red indicates where Dublin ranks 4th or 5th.
2010 Copenhagen Frankfurt Geneva
Priority Factor (all Companies*) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 10 11 12 Easy access to markets, customers or clients Availability of qualified staff Quality of telecommunications Transport links with other cities and internationally Cost of Staff Value for money office space Climate that governments create for business Availability of office space Languages spoken Ease of travelling within the city Quality of life for employees Freedom from pollution
2010 2009 % % 61 60 58 57 55 54 51 51 33 35 36 34 27 26 31 25 27 24 26 23 20 21 19 17
FIGURE 10
15
Vienna
Dublin
Endnotes
1
7 8 9
10
11
12
13
14
15 16 17
18 19 20
21 22
23 24 25
26
27 28
29 30
Ernst & Young, Winning in a Polycentric World, Globalization and the changing world of business (2011) - http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Issues/Business-environment/Winningin-a-polycentric-world--globalization-and-the-changing-world-of-business---Winning-ina-world-with-many-centers United Nations, Urbanization: A Majority in Cities (2007) http://www.unfpa.org/pds/urbanization.htm McKinsey Global Institute, Urban world: Mapping the economic power of Cities (2011) http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/urban_world/pdfs/MGI_urban_world_full_r eport.pdf United Nations, Press Conference on 2009 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects (2010) - http://www.un.org/News/briefings/docs/2010/100325_DESA.doc.htm LSE Cities & Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings, Global Metro Monitor the path to economic recovery (2010) http://globalmetrosummit.net/media/GlobalMetroMonitor.pdf McKinsey Global Institute, Urban world: Mapping the economic power of Cities (2011) http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/urban_world/pdfs/MGI_urban_world_full_r eport.pdf OECD, Competitive Cities in the Global Economy (2007) Ibid. LSE Cities & Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings, Global Metro Monitor the path to economic recovery (2010) http://globalmetrosummit.net/media/GlobalMetroMonitor.pdf OECD, Competitive cities in the global economy (2007) - Global City Indicators Program (GCIP) was initiated by the World Bank http://www.cityindicators.org/#. World Bank, City Indicators From Now to Najing (2007) IBMs Smarter Cities programme (http://www05.ibm.com/ie/smarterplanet/technologycentre/index.html) Pricewaterhouse Coopers Cities of Opportunity - http://www.pwc.com/us/en/citiesof-opportunity McKinsey Global Institutes Urban world: Mapping the economic power of cities http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/urban_world/index.asp KPMGs Global Cities Investment Monitor - http://www.greater-paris-investmentagency.com/pdf/GPIA-KPMG-22-juin-2010-version-definitive.pdf AT Kearneys Global Cities Index - http://www.lboro.ac.uk/gawc/ Globalization and World Cities Research Network _ http://www.lboro.ac.uk/gawc/ See also, Rockefeller Foundation, The global city indicators programme in Century of the City: No Time to Lose (2008) McKinsey, The Importance of Cities (2011) Accenture, CDP for Cities making the case (2010) Siemens, Green City Index (2011) _ http://www.siemens.com/entry/cc/en/greencityindex.htm Based on a purchasing power parity from 2000 Dirks, S., Keeling, M and Lyons, R., Economic Development in a Rubiks Cube World, IBM Institute for Business Value. (2007) World Bank, World Development Indicators (2010) UNCTAD, World Investment Report (2006) and (2010) Bank for International Settlements, Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity in 2010 - Final results (2010) Dirks, S., Keeling, M and Lyons, R., Economic Development in a Rubiks Cube World, IBM Institute for Business Value (2007) http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm (2011) IBM Institute for Business Value analysis of data from http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm (2011) Ernst and Young, Globalisation Survey (2011) World Trade Organisation (2010)
16
31 32
33 34
35
36 37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44 45 46 47
48
49
50 51 52
53 54 55 56 57
58
Irish Exporters Association (2011) Dirks. S., Keeling, M and Gurdgiev, C., Smarter Cities for Smarter Growth, IBM Institute for Business Value (2010) Ibid. European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (2009) and (2010); IBM Global Center for Economic Development analysis Massey, D., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaci, A., Pellegrino, A. and Taylor, J.E., Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal in Population and Development Review (1993) Ibid. Kim, Young-Chul (2009): The Asia-Pacific education market and modes of supply. In: The Asia-Pacific education market, eds. William Tierney and Christopher Findlay, quoted in Hawthorne 2008. Dirks. S., Keeling, M and Gurdgiev, C., Smarter Cities for Smarter Growth, IBM Institute for Business Value. (2010) Reilly, Patricia, Address to the Board of GS1 in Europe (part of the global supply chain standards body) (2010) (see http://www.gs1ie.org/sid/1441). Ms Reilly is a member of cabinet of the European Commissioner for Research, Innovation and Science, Mire Geoghegan-Quinn. Hall, Peter, Cities in Civilization, (1998) - gives an account of the urban sources of cultural creativity and technological innovation throughout history, from Athens to Florence, to London, to New York, to Paris, to Los Angeles, to Silicon Valley, and beyond. Athey, G., Glossop, C., Harrison, B., Nathan, M. and Webber, C., Innovation and the City: How innovation has developed in five city-regions, National Endowment for Science, Technology and the Arts (NESTA), (2007) http://www.centreforcities.org/assets/files/innovation_and_the_city_report_NESTA.pdf Geoghegan Quinn, Mire (EU Commissioner for Research, Innovation and Science), speech at Croke Park Conference Park Conference Centre, Dublin City entitled Cities Innovating for Future Growth (April 23rd 2010) European Commission/Research and Innovation, Innovation Union Competitiveness Report 2011, Overall review of Member States and Associated Countries, Country Profile Ireland (2011) Ibid OECD, Territorial Reviews: Competitive Cities in the Global Economy (2006) Bureau of Labor Statistics (2011) OECD, International Mobility of the Highly Skilled (Policy Brief. July 2002) http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/9/20/1950028.pdf OECD, Perspectives on Global Development: Shifting Wealth (2010) http://www.oecd.org/document/12/0,3746,en_2649_33959_45467980_1_1_1_1,00.ht ml LSE Cities & Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings, Global Metro Monitor the path to economic recovery (2010) http://globalmetrosummit.net/media/GlobalMetroMonitor.pdf Eurostat, Science, Technology and Innovation in Europe (2010) Eurostat, 2010 yearbook (2010) United Nations, World Population Ageing (2009) http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WPA2009/WPA2009-report.pdf Eurostat, (2011) - http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ United Nations, World Population Prospects (2009) Ibid. OECD, Territorial Reviews Competitive Cities in the Global Economy (2006) Florida, Richard, The Rise of the Creative Class (2004) and Florida, Richard, The Flight of the Creative Class (2006). Cushman & Wakefield, European Cities Monitor, (2009) and (2010)
17