CP NHT NGNH BT NG SN H12011

1. Din bin th trng ( 1 )

TP H Ch Minh
Vn phng cho thu: Ngun cung mi trong Q111 tng thm 70.000m2, nng tng din
tch vn phng cho thu ln1.100.000 m2, tng 4,27% so vi cui nm 2010. c tnh trong
cc qu cn li ca nm 2011, din tch vn phng cho thu ti TP H Ch Minh s tip tc tng
thm 70.000 m2 ln khong 1.195.000 m2, tng 13% so vi cui nm trc.
Gi cho thu trung bnh tt c cc hng gim 3,33% xung cn 29USD/m2 do ngun cung mi
ang vn tip tc vo th trng trong khi nhu cu mi kh hn ch. T l lp y gim nh so
vi cui nm 2010 (-1,23%) xung cn 80%. Do vy, xu hng chung l cc ch u t u
gim gi cho thu nhm gi khch hng c v thu ht khch hng mi nhm ci thin t l lp
y.
V ngun cu, vn FDI vo TP H Ch Minh 5 thng u nm t 1.225,8 triu USD, tng trn
150% cng k nm 2010 l c s cho k vng ci thin t l lp y cho din tch vn phng
cho thu.
Din tch bn l: Ngun cung din tch bn l t 630.000 m2 vo cui Q12011, tng 0,73% so
vi cui nm 2010. c tnh tng ngun cung mi trong nm 2011 s vo khong gn 105.000
m2, nng tng din tch bn l ln khong 730.000 m2 vo cui nm 2011, tng 17% so vi
cui nm trc. Gi cho thu bnh qun tng ln 75USD/ m2/thng, tng nh (+1,35%) so vi
cui nm 2010, ch yu do tc ng bi cc yu t kinh t v m. Tuy nhin, t l lp y
tng nh (hn 2%) so vi cui nm 2010 ln 92%.
Mc d khng cn c xp trong Top 10 cc th trng bn l hp dn nht do c s h tng
phn phi km v gi cho thu cao, th trng bn l Vit Nam vn thu ht cc hng bn l
nc ngoi do dn s ng v nhu cu ang tng nhanh. Vit Nam chnh thc m ca i vi
cc hng bn l nc ngoi vo nm 2009, do , nhiu nh bn l ang tip tc tm kim c
hi vo Vit Nam. V vy, nhu cu thu din tch bn l ti khu vc trung tm c d bo l c
kh nng tng ln. Tuy nhin, din tch c hn v gi cho thu ca phn khc ny ang tng
c th to c hi tt cho phn khc din tch bn l khu vc vnh ai do gi c thp hn.
Nh v cn h: Khong 5.000 cn h c a ra cho bn trn th trng s cp trong
Q12011, nng tng ngun cung cn h trn th trng s cp ln 18.500 cn h, tng gn 9%
so vi cui nm 2010. Trong chim t trng ch yu (trn 70%) vn l cn h din tch nh,
gi trung bnh l phn khc m nhu cu thc trn th trng vn ang mc cao. Cc d n
tp trung ch yu ti cc qun nh Qun 7, Qun 8, Qun Nh B, Qun Bnh Chnh, vvv
(pha Nam, ng v Ty TP). Theo c tnh, trong giai on cn li ca nm 2011, th trng
cn h s cp s tip nhn thm khong 14.500 cn h, a tng cung cn h trn th trng
s cp ln 31.500 cn h, tng r rt so vi cui nm 2010 (85%).

S liu tham kho ngun Savills Research

Ngi thc hin: Chuyn vin phn tch Nguyn Th Hong Mai


H Ni
Vn phng cho thu: Tng din tch vn phng cho thu ti H Ni t 760.000 m2, tng
20.000m2 (+2,7%) trong Q12011 so vi cui nm 2010, ch yu tp trung ti cc qun Cu
Giy, Hon Kim v ng a (chim khong 70% tng ngun cung). Cc qu 2-4 ca nm
2011 s chng kin s tng trng mnh m trong tng cung din tch vn phng cho thu.
Tng din tch VP cho thu d bo s tng ln gn 1 triu m2 vo cui nm 2011, tng khong
32% so vi cui nm 2010. Gi cho thu trung bnh tt c cc hng vn gi mc 26USD/m2 ,
ng thi t l lp y vn gi c mc 90% bng vi thi im cui nm 2010. Tuy nhin,
hu ht cc ch u t u c cc chng trnh khuyn mi nhm gi khch hng c v thu
ht khch hng mi nhm ci thin t l lp y.
Tng vn FDI ng k vo H Ni 5 thng u nm t 389 triu USD, tng hn 7,5 ln con s
cng k nm trc cng l mt du hiu tch cc cho phn khc vn phng cho thu.
Din tch bn l: Ngun cung din tch bn l tng 10.000 m2 trong Q12011, nng tng din
tch bn l ln 440.000m2, tng 2,33% so vi cui nm 2010. Mt lng cung ng k (180.000
m2) s c a ra th trng trong cc qu 2-4 ca nm 2011 t cc d n nh Savico Mega
Mall, Keangnam Landmark Tower, Vincom Centre Long Bien v nng tng din tch bn l c
tnh s t trn 620.000 m2, tng 44% so vi cui nm 2010. Gn y, vo ngy 14/6, trung
tm thng mi Indochina Plaza vi tng din tch 18.000 m2 c chnh thc cng b cho
thu.
Din tch bn l ti trung tm H Ni gn nh c thu kn. Tuy nhin, t l lp y trung bnh
ton th trng gim nh so vi cui nm 2010 xung cn 92% t mc 93%.
Nh v cn h: S lng cn h c a ra cho bn trong nhng thng u nm 2011
tng gn gp i so vi Q42011 v vo khong 9.000 cn h. Tng ngun cung cn h bn
trn th trng th cp tng gn 12% so vi cui nm 2010 v t 44.000 cn h. Trong cc
qu cui nm 2011, trn 20.000 cn h s tip tc c a ra cho bn trn th trng s
cp.
Trong khi , phn khc nh (bit th v lin k) cng n nhn mt lng cung mi vi gn
7.000 n v c a vo khai thc trong H12011, tng 12% so vi cui nm 2010.

Ngi thc hin: Chuyn vin phn tch Nguyn Th Hong Mai


2. Nhng thch thc i vi ngnh Bt ng sn nm 2011
Kh khn do gi u vo tng
Mt bng gi chung ca nhm hng nguyn vt liu xy dng ang trong xu hng tng t u
nm n nay vi tc nhanh hn v mc cao hn ch s gi chung to sc p ln li
nhun ca cc doanh nghip bt ng sn trong iu kin cnh tranh gay gt hn do ngun
cung ang tng v th trng trm lng.

(*) ng mu biu din tng trng CPI theo nm, ng mu trng biu din tc tng trng ch s gi nhm hng
nguyn vt liu xy dng
Ngun: Bloomberg

Ngoi ra, cc doanh nghip Bt ng sn cn gp kh khn v chi ph u vo tng cao i vi

din tch t cha thc hin xong vic gii ta n b khi thc hin Ngh nh 69/2009/N-CP
ngy 13/08/2009, theo , cc ch u t cc d n nh phi np thu tin s dng t theo
gi th trng, thng cao hn 2-5 ln so vi bng gi t UBND thnh ph ban hnh hng
nm.
Tip tc gp tr ngi v ngun vn do chnh sch tin t tht cht
Ngy 1/3/2011, Ngn hng Nh Nc ban hnh ch th s 01/CT-NHNN yu cu cc t
chc tn dng kim ch tng trng tn dng ni chung mc di 20%. ng thi, cc t
chc tn dng phi gim t trng cho vay phi sn xut trong tng d n xung ti a 22% n
30/6/2011 v 16% n 31/12/2011. Theo thng k, tnh n u thng 3/2011, 24 trn tng s
42 ngn hng thng mi Nh nc v NH thng mi c phn c t trng cho vay phi sn
xut trn 26% v 18 ngn hng c t trng cho vay trn 25%. p ng quy nh ny, cc
ngn hng u phi quyt lit tht cht cho vay phi sn xut ng thi thu hi cc khon cho
vay bt ng sn, chng khon, tiu dng, du hc, vvv. Nhn chung, cc khon cho vay bt
ng sn chim n 80% tng d n vay phi sn xut v thng l cc khon vay trung v di
hn, do , vic gim t trng theo ch th ca NHNN l rt kh khn i vi cc ngn hng. V
vy, cc ngn hng cng tng cng tht cht cc khon cho vay bt ng sn. Tnh n ngy
30/4/2011,vn cn 24 NHTM c t trng d n phi sn xut trn 22%. T trng d n cho vay

Ngi thc hin: Chuyn vin phn tch Nguyn Th Hong Mai


lnh vc phi sn xut l gn 393 nghn t VND, chim gn 17% tng d n cho vay nn kinh t,
gim gn 2% so vi con s ngy 31/12/2010.
v do chnh sch ngnh
Ngh nh 71/2010/N-CP v Thng t s 16/2010/TT-BXD ngy 01/09/2010 ch cho php ch
u t huy ng vn bng hnh thc gp vn, hp tc kinh doanh c phn chia sn phm nh
khng vt qu 20% s lng nh ca d n hay ch u t ch c huy ng nhn tin
mua nh ng trc ca khch hng trong quan h mua bn nh hnh thnh trong tng lai
khi hon thnh phn h tng, mng. Nhng quy nh ny gp phn hn ch kh nng huy ng
vn ca cc ch u t cc d n bt ng sn.
Vi c im l mt ngnh i hi vn ln v ph thuc rt nhiu vo ngun vn vay, nhng
quy nh trn c tc ng rt ln theo hng tiu cc i vi cc doanh nghip bt ng sn.
Tn dng tht cht v mt bng li sut cho vay cao cng lm kh nng tiu th sn phm bt
ng sn gim mnh, dn n tnh trng trm lng trn th trng bt ng sn trong nhng
thng u nm 2011. Vi iu kin kinh t v m v xu hng chnh sch hin ti, d bo
nhng kh khn trn th trng bt ng sn s cha th sm gii quyt.
3. Thng k doanh nghip nim yt Q12011
Tnh bnh qun cho cc doanh nghip nim yt cng b s liu ti chnh Q12011 ti ngy
16/6/2011, cc ch tiu doanh thu, li nhun gp v li nhun rng u c s tng trng cao
(trn 110%) so vi cng k nm 2010. Mt im tch cc chung l li nhun gp tng trng
mnh (trn 181%) hn tng trng doanh thu (trn 112%) th hin s ci thin trong t l li
nhun gp (Xem chi tit ti Ph lc).
Ch s PE bnh qun ca cc doanh nghip c thng k ang mc gn 10x, cao hn mt
cht so vi bnh qun th trng (gn 9,5x) trong khi ch s PB ang mc rt thp (thp
hn 1x) v thp hn nhiu so vi mc bnh qun chung ca th trng l 1,67x v s lng c
phiu c mc PB ln hn 1 chim t hn s lng c phiu c s liu (16/35 c phiu). y
l mt im ng ch do gi tr s sch ca cc doanh nghip bt ng sn thng nh hn
gi tr th trng thc t theo quy nh ca ch k ton Vit Nam.
Mc d cc ch s doanh thu, LNG v LNR bnh qun chung ca nhm ngnh tng trng tt,
tuy nhin, kt qu hot ng ca cc cng ty c s phn ha kh r rt.
VIC v NTL dn u danh sch vi tc tng trng doanh thu v li nhun mc rt cao.
Trong Q111, bn cnh vic y mnh hiu sut ca cc trung tm thng mi, VIC ghi nhn
doanh thu v li nhun t vic bn cc sn phm t cc d n nh Times City, Royal City, vv.
NTL ghi nhn doanh thu v li nhun t vic bn gn 2.000 m2 t h tng ti d n KDTM
Bc Quc L 32 trong Q12011 trong khi cng k nm ngoi ch c doanh thu v li nhun t
hot ng xy lp.

Ngi thc hin: Chuyn vin phn tch Nguyn Th Hong Mai

Cty
VIC
NTL

% DT
% LNG
%LNR
Q1'11/Q1'10 Q1'11/Q1'10 Q1'11/Q1'10
454.16%
413.54%
289.96%
344.32%
2407.01%
958.89%

Trong khi , cc ch tiu doanh thu, v li nhun rng TDH, VCR v SJS gim so vi cng k
nm trc m theo cc cng ty ny, nguyn nhn chnh l iu kin th trng khng thun li
cho vic tiu th hng ha v do nh hng ca cc quy nh chnh sch nh c cp trn.

Cty
TDH
VCR
SJS

% DT
% LNG
%LNR
Q1'11/Q1'10 Q1'11/Q1'10 Q1'11/Q1'10
-13.38%
28.18%
-45.91%
-19.42%
-22.31%
-48.18%
-42.08%
-96.98%
-97.63%

Tuy nhin, do c im ca ngnh bt ng sn l doanh thu v li nhun thng c ghi

nhn khi bn giao sn phm cho khch hng v thng tp trung vo giai on cui nm, do
, kt qu m cc cng ty thc hin trong qu u tin ca nm cha th phn nh hiu qu
hot ng thc s ca c nm. Mc d vy, vi nhng yu t tc ng n ton ngnh nh
cp trn th nm 2011 s l mt nm nhiu kh khn cho cc doanh nghip ngnh bt ng
sn.

Ngi thc hin: Chuyn vin phn tch Nguyn Th Hong Mai


PH LC- Thng k mt s ch tiu kt qu hot ng doanh nghip nim yt Q12011

Cty
VIC
NTL
DXG
LHG
VNI
LGL
TIX
CSC
CCI
NBB
HAG
IJC
KDH
EFI
RCL
SZL
FDC
HDC
VC3
VPH
KHA
BCI
DIG
NVT
PVL
D2D
IDV
PPI
NVN
KBC
ITC
ITA
HDG
TDH
VCR
SJS
DLR
NTB
TB ngnh
VN Index

Vn ha TT
(16/6/2011)
50,256,500
1,515,360
385,600
609,558
92,203
217,961
484,800
100,500
116,124
1,152,009
18,784,680
2,358,073
1,821,850
86,540
107,990
250,000
554,228
491,388
276,966
363,064
153,911
1,322,486
1,927,221
405,350
410,000
222,689
69,227
134,384
155,589
5,273,642
1,022,830
3,967,074
1,202,850
757,499
303,064
3,327,808
125,550
324,000
2,661,331

Doanh thu
4Q n
LNR 4Q
% DT
% LNG
Q1'11
n Q1'11 Q1'11/Q1'10 Q1'11/Q1'10
4,242,578 2,370,205
454.16%
413.54%
1,454,592
613,314
344.32%
2407.01%
431,559
72,311
249.14%
135.03%
428,580
169,557
244.88%
251.07%
27,988
2,589
232.12%
399.55%
275,963
36,765
181.37%
53.12%
830,781
80,390
180.47%
150.44%
393,659
11,370
162.82%
103.17%
237,895
34,506
145.08%
24.67%
526,263
119,842
140.58%
115.62%
3,923,342 1,895,215
136.44%
150.28%
354,762
211,573
128.25%
87.54%
791,437
153,877
123.37%
68.20%
8,119
10,038
118.42%
97.20%
153,082
46,023
118.31%
135.23%
131,355
52,537
108.39%
88.23%
706,224
60,053
105.59%
-25.86%
423,305
104,763
105.09%
57.57%
496,214
35,457
101.50%
103.29%
83,051
(6,186)
91.93%
274.86%
126,814
45,970
74.57%
106.50%
772,225
274,023
68.46%
76.98%
1,290,828
483,421
67.24%
48.87%
205,471
(5,209)
66.02%
50.14%
77,908
(14,222)
64.68%
887.20%
197,007
91,226
58.67%
61.82%
32,234
15,316
57.67%
88.34%
400,520
36,632
44.73%
-40.48%
170,183
53,622
44.29%
42.70%
563,613
906,289
40.68%
32.11%
923,772
171,602
35.90%
100.87%
2,193,422
640,868
26.32%
66.09%
773,153
219,120
15.42%
11.39%
568,824
227,259
-13.38%
28.18%
150,060
53,404
-19.42%
-22.31%
1,016,874
439,940
-42.08%
-96.98%
197,791
10,601 NA
NA
356,229
52,137 NA
NA
682,570
257,268
112.83%
181.42%

Ngi thc hin: Chuyn vin phn tch Nguyn Th Hong Mai

%LNR
BVPS
PB
Q1'11/Q1'10 EPS_12M (31/3/2011)
Trailing PE
(31/3/2011)
289.96%
6,084
26,918
3.94
0.89
958.89%
9,956
15,693
2.01
1.27
101.15%
4,519
19,163
6.57
1.55
332.68%
8,484
28,084
1.30
0.39
-7.86%
250
10,552
27.21
0.64
45.29%
1,839
17,093
10.93
1.18
131.70%
3,350
20,677
8.18
1.33
162.71%
2,274
22,472
10.60
1.07
711.18%
3,922
17,405
7.11
1.60
91.55%
6,710
56,207
3.11
0.37
152.98%
4,056
20,853
4.51
0.88
108.45%
772
10,470
10.63
0.78
34.20%
3,505
27,644
8.70
1.10
76.71%
789
13,394
18.89
1.11
125.37%
10,228
30,882
1.22
0.40
65.17%
2,627
24,836
24.55
2.60
35.07%
2,969
24,873
13.98
1.67
88.19%
4,477
22,366
2.43
0.49
103.16%
4,468
26,901
9.00
1.49
14.06%
(223)
18,870
(48.84)
0.58
111.10%
3,256
21,016
10.32
1.60
68.71%
3,792
26,830
5.20
0.73
43.24%
4,942
24,073
2.65
0.54
-23.35%
(86)
11,948
(169.56)
1.22
NA
(284)
10,148
(30.28)
0.85
65.56%
8,562
31,449
1.04
0.28
63.64%
4,340
11,444
47.51%
2,998
25,632
4.40
0.51
15.80%
5,032
20,919
1.71
0.41
20.31%
3,128
18,306
11.16
1.91
5.18%
2,500
28,408
8.08
0.71
34.24%
4,477
17,039
5.49
1.44
17.22%
5,410
16,059
1.24
0.42
-45.91%
6,000
35,113
3.03
0.52
-48.18%
1,515
12,433
13.46
1.64
-97.63% N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
NA
2,356
15,855
3.82
0.57
NA
1,448 NA
NA
111.37%
3,796
21,723
9.97
0.97
9.44
1.67

PHNG PHN TCH

Cng ty TNHH Chng khon Ngn hng TMCP Nh H Ni
Tng 4B - 2C Vn Phc Kim M Ba nh H Ni
Tel: (+84) 04.3.726.2275 - Fax: (+84) 04.3.726.2305

Nguyn Th Hng Nhung

Bo Ngc

S my l.: 9101

S my l.: 9103

Email: nhungnh@hbbs.com.vn

Email: ngocdb@hbbs.com.vn

Ng M Chi

Trn Hong Sn

S my l.: 9102

S my l.: 9104

Email: chinm@hbbs.com.vn

Email: sonth@hbbs.com.vn

Nguyn Th Hong Mai

S my l.: 9105
Email: mainth@hbbs.com.vn

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