Probability of receiving Sinister Squashling AND Hallowed

Probability of receiving Lovely Black Dress AND Truesilve

Probability of receiving Swift Brewfest Ram OR Swift Brew
Probability of receiving all of the above
 3%
72%
26%
0.6%
 R Sinister Squashling
Days to summon Headless Horseman 15
Kills per day per group 5
Total kills over 15 days 75

Drop chance for one kill 2.1%

Probability of item dropping 1 times over 75 kills 1 0.33

Probability of item dropping 2 times over 75 kills 2 0.26
Probability of item dropping 3 times over 75 kills 3 0.14
Probability of item dropping 75 times over 75 kills 75 0.0%

Probability of item dropping at least once over 75 kills 79.7%

Chance one player will receive both items 3.2%
Hallowed Helm Proability of
Probability
Top RollProbability
of Sinister of
Squashling
Hallowed dropping
Helm dropping
and player
and player
getting
getting
top roll
top roll
15
5
75

8.5%

0.01 0.2 0.07 0

0.03 0.2 0.05 0.01
0.07 0.2 0.03 0.01
0.0% 0.2 0 0

99.9% 0.16 20%

getting top roll
 R Lovely Black Dress
Event length (days) 6
Bags per day 24
Total bags over 6 days 144

Drop chance for one bag 1.3%

Probability of item dropping 1 times over 144 bags 1 0.30

Probability of item dropping 144 times over 144 bags 144 0.0%

Probability of item dropping at least once over 144 bags 0.84

Chance one player will receive both items 71.6%
Truesilver Shafted Arrow
6
24
144

1.3%

0.28
0.0%

0.85
 R Swift Brewfest Ram
Event length (days) 14
Kills per day per group 5
Total kills over 15 days 70

Drop chance for one kill 1.8%

Probability of item dropping 1 times over 70 kills 1 0.36

Probability of item dropping 2 times over 70 kills 2 0.22
Probability of item dropping 3 times over 70 kills 3 0.09
Probability of item dropping 70 times over 70 kills 70 0.0%

Probability of item dropping at least once over 75 kills 71.1%

Chance one player will receive either item 26.3%
Swift Brewfest Kodo Proability
Probability
of Top Probability
Roll
of Ram dropping
of Kodoand
dropping
playerand
getting
player
topgetting
roll top roll
14
5
70

1.3%

0.37 0.2 0.07 0.07

0.17 0.2 0.04 0.03
0.05 0.2 0.02 0.01
0.0% 0.2 0 0

60.5% 0.14 0.12