Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
~l~ 1l!~
(CC!A1IcH2t.ii!..ii!.*)
t!" ~ ol~*
(CC!A1IcH2t.ii!.A~£.I'it~CC!.:r~)
1.
~~iI~il71
~~~olC}~ %<>i9l- 7]~ ~ ~~ A}§l ~%~ ~A~ 7-1171u}q %7rJ-'BflAi~1~ 1:Jl-'cl-ol £1 ~ q. 1960\11:JloJl~ ~7} "T-.£~ 7clAllAJ7rJ-ol ~~ ~.2...£ ~"6~ £1 ~Ai 1:Jl;<l-~Jl}~&:;<}~ {}9.J iE-l:l]~ ~All~ %C1~l-Jl ~~~ oJl1:Jl~ '€1tIJ-ol ~°l-;<l~Ai ~~~~ ~1°1 ~<>i~q. ~JI11980\11:JloJl~ 78~1~ ~"T-~ 78~1~ AJ~ol .!i!.4-~~7} ~.!i!.~~7}oJl1:Jl~ ~1°1 ~1'€1~l-711°Pf·<>i~q. 1990\1rJl ~ 7clAll~71 °l~ ~~~ 7clAll9l-A}§l7} -B-~~}711 ~;<}% "T-9.J~ A]JI1~ 7cl~~l-~Ai ~~~~ qAl~ ~19.J 1:Jl-'cl-ol£lJl 'Uq. lID}~ 7clAllAJ7rJ-9.J ~Jl} %A~ S:~~ l3{.!i!.71Al~~ 1980\11:JloJl ~~~ ~{!:~~ ~A]7} t8"~Al£lJl Ts:s:78Jl} Al-§l7} A%~ .=1.~01 <>iTf!78~1~ 1!~ ~ ~ -5!~7}oJl {!{lol %~~~ zrl.2..~Ai ~~~~ ;<}~~ ;<l~~ U1lu}q ~~~9.J %Ef~ 7cljl~}~ ~~q~ ~{l~
~A]7}
.!?-j~~~
"T-7rJ-~01 ?i~~ol
Al171£l~q.
Jt:loJ1Ai~ ~~~oJl 1:Jl~ Jl}.£~ ~~~ .!i!.q {lZf~ ~~~~ ~AlloJl :rr-{[~ ~Jl}~ ~~ -5!01c} ~ l:l]~ol All71£]71.£ "9Y.;<11fr(~ ~~, 2003, 2006) .=1.-5! {!~ ~ ~}ol ~ ~ ~~~~ ~ ;<1~7} .!?-j~ t8"~q~ A}~oJl 1:Jlii]Ai~ ~1fr~~ ~~7} ~A]~q . .=1.%<li~~~oJl 1:Jl~ ~T~ {!{lJl} iE-~~ ~~ ~ 1:Jl~1.£ &:~iE-l:l]9.J 0J~~ ~~oJ1Ai ~{}&:~ 7-11 9.J T1-£y. l:l]~ol ~<>i ~ q~ -5!01~ q. ~Jt:l ~~~ ~ 1i3:;<1 oJl ~ ii]Ai 1fr ~ &:~ T1-78£l;<l ~jl 7-11~~~ qOJ~ Al-§l ~~~ ~~7Jl-;<1 .¥.~ii]Ai %~~.2..'£ .!?-j71 ~-6l~ ~ ~~oJ1Ai~ AJ1:Jl~ .!i!.o}ol=~qjl
~l€t{[~
"T-7rJ-~l-~ .!i!.;<l~
~7rJ-oJ1Ai~ ~~~~
~Jl}.£ .!i!.71.£
~q(s:%71, 2006). ~~~ ~ ~ToJ1Ai ~~~9.J ~717} 1i3:~~ ~-6l1fr~ ~Allc}jl ~.2..P=1 AJt8"~ 7cl~~ ~~17l- 'Uqjl .!i!.jl .=1.~~l~ ~c5:l.!i!.jl;<} ~q. 01 ~oJ1Ai ~~7} ~ol ~<>i~~ ~~ljl;<l- '8"l-~ ~~~ ~71~ ~~l~ 1i3:~~1 ~~~~
-5!01 0l-tic} ~~~oJl 1:Jlii] ~~l 711:Jl~}~ ~AJ~ <li78AJ~ ~A] ~~ A}§l 9.J ~~~oJ1Ai ~71 ~ ~q~ -5!olq. A7.:!1:Jl~~ Al-§l9.J ~~~~ 1i3:;<1 JrJl~ ~~11fr ~ A ~~.!i!.q Y. ~ ~ u};fr7};<1.£ ~ C1 7};<1 ~ oJlAi ~<li78 '8"}l -'cl-t8"~ ~ ~ oJl :x.:~£] <>i 'Uq j ~ -5!olq. ~~~9.J ~All ~ A}§l~~oly. <li78Jl} ~~Al~ A~Zf~l-~ l:l]7cloJl~ ~~~~ A~~s:Z!°l <li78~0171 U1l~oJl ~1i3:~ 1!~ ~ '8"}71.!i!.q~ 7rJ-71~ {!~oJ1Ai ~~~ 7]~ ~ 1!~~ -5!°lC}~ 711:Jl7} ~~'Uq(OlA]'€1, 2006; %.!f-1i\ {}~s:, 2006). ~l-;<11fr1fr~ ~~~ 9.J 7Jl{!~ AJ:§d-°l ~<li78~l-jl %%~olC}~ °l~ol .=1.?iq~ £~q. Al-§l~ ~~Jl} °lAll~ ~~~ <li78~ {!.£ °1~jl7} ~~~~ ~All~ {! 711:Jl'8"}71~ 11;<1 ~~;<l.£ £~q.1fr~ ~.2..'£ qAl~ A~Zf'Bfl1!l-0l=~Al~~;<l.£
-c~
fi"~ ~T"i ~ ~~~oJ1"i :A1~!9~~01 ~{l-~01t:!}~ %o-]~ ~*7-l1.!ii.q~ ~~7-l1oJ1"i 1i!~ ~~~q.;E~ J ~~ 1:1~7cloJ1~ 7-l1ifo1t:!}~ :U:C1~.2..'£' Al-:§:]~~l~ .!ii.71 O-]Pl~ ~ ~1~ %~01 ~~ ~q. '8'l-:A1li! l-:§:]JI]-~7-l1oJ1"i A ~{l-~ 7~\3 ~ ~~ 'T%5~"i ~T~ ~"6~ "5ll..2.li1"i 01~1~ ~* 1ff~oJ1"i£ ~{l-*01 t:!}~ %0-]7l- ~~:A1 ?J'Jl1 !9 ~q. qli! 01C1~ 7~~.9l ~Al-~ ~{l-*oJ1 rR~ q0J=~ "5ll-6:jJI]- ~ 7l-~~q. n:]-t:!}"i~~~ ~~ ~~~ :i1j"8"l71 ~ 5~"i ~ ~{l-~ oJ1rR~ 7~\3lt~ ~ ~ ~"8"1 ~ ~ oJ1~~ ~ ~ ~A7l- ~ q. -i-T<)(2005)~ ~~ Al-:§:]oJ1"i~{l-*'01 '~Zl-7-l1if'£ °l-YJI '~Zl-~~7-l1*'£ ' 0l-\1 JC1 li1"i£ 01~.9l 4fAj~ ~7Jl1 0l-~2 ~ rR~~ %o-].£. ~~!90-]7l-JI ~qJI ~7l-'8'l-li1"i, qOJ= ~ ~{l-*oJ1 rR~ 1:)-2'~ .=UIl ~rR~ lt~JI]- %rR~ lt~.2..'£' Y-TJI ~q. ~rR ~{l-*~ 0 ~{l-~ ~ ~~"8"l-~ 71€-01 ~ ~ "8"l-~1l. 1 .!ii.~E]-'ct~ 7~~~ 71€-oJ1 n:]-t:!} ~~~ 7cl~olq. 1:1J1li1.9l :A1~HlTI 7~\3oJ1 7l-~qJI ~ 'T£ ~.2..t9 rR~l.£. ~{l-*~ 71€-~ ~~ 0191oJ1£ .Jil~, A~tf°J=-6l ~ qli1~olq. lftli1 AJ-rR~{l-*~ ~~~~91~~ ~'T~ Al-%"8"l-~~~AJ.9l %rR~ ~~1 oJ1n:]-t:!} {l-~ ~ lt~'8'l-~ ~ ~{l-~oJ1 rR~ "i.£. q;:: 1:)-2'~ ~ rR ~{l-* ~ 'T.£. ~{l-* -5!.2...£.~ ~T.9l ~~lJi~ol ~{l-~.2...£. lt~~q.
J ~~~, ~~ ~~~
.:flftlJiE:] %'ct 71Zl- %~ 01;::1:1l-~~ ~~* Al-:§:]'~ 7J-~'8'l-t9 ~lil rRq'T7l- ~{l-~01 !9 ' ~qJI 7J-~~ -5!01Y-, ~~oJ1"i£ 1980\1rR ~{l-*01 u1~~ ~~~ 7~~ ~ 'T£5~:Q -5!01 t:!}JI 1::f~~1;[! 'T~ .2..!f- ~rR ~{l-~.9l ~ 7cl~'8'l-71 A1~~ u1~oJ1"i ~{l-*~ -2' ~~oJ1"i %Al-"8"l-Jl1 ~{l-*~ ~ ~ToJ1"i~ ~{l-~01
~~
~~~
%~~
lft~~q.
lftli11980\1rR ~Al-%'T.9l~
~~
~71 ~ 7clJI"8"l-~-5! .2..!f- AJ-rR~{l-*~ ~~ ~ ~"8"l-JI ~q. TI:A1 ~~oJ1 .9l"5ll"ili! lt~~~ -5!01 0l-L-1t:!}~ ~rR ~{l-~.9l Al-:§:]oJ1"i~{l-*.9l ~~17lJ
%oJ1"i lt~~ ~ ~{l-~oJ1 ~~ ~ -g!-4-JIAl- ~q. 1:)-2'oJ1"i£ 3.Jl1 .!f- 7l-:A11:)-2'01 T~~q(%7cl€-, 2008). "8"l-Y-~OEeD %oJ1"i 7l-T 1:11~'oJ1~~ ~ -g!-4-0-]7l-T ~~ ~ 71€-.2...£. ~~~~
~ ~~~~
.9l 50% u1li!, 50~150%, 150% 01%.2...£. T~'8'l-~ ztzt Jil~*, ~{l-*, %**.2...£. ~.9l'8'l-~ -5!olq. °1C1~ ~.9l91- 71€-~ ~~ ~1:1~oJ1 n:]-t:!} {l-*.9llt.2.7l~ ~~"8"l-~ -5!~ .!ii.~'T~t:~1 ~~'8'l-q. ~~~1:1~7l- ~~~'T~ ~{l-~ ~ It.2.~ ~o-] ~71 1111~olq. ;E q;:: 1:)-2'~ '~{l-
~~
~:;~ih~-'.£
~~S1~
iE- c5"l-~~ 11J1 ~Zl-°l 2,3,4 °r~ -¥- ~:c~ iT~~ ~~~~
ztzt ~:c ~~
~.!?-l~:;~
.!i!.Jlc5"l-~q. ~~ ~ iE-~~
:; iE-.¥..~ 2iE-~ oj] Ai 4iE-.!?-l ii~~c5"l-~ ~~~~ oj] ~ ~ToJ]Ai~ ~~c5"l-JlAl- ~q.
J~~
~:; ~ %%0] ~ ~.!?-l71 0] + 1980\1 ~ 99-~(54% 75%~ ~~~~ ~~)~ §l~"9!lg ~ .!i!.~q. 50~150%oJ] 4f~ ~-g.~ ~~~_Q_'£ c5"l-~_Q_'£l~c5"l-715:.~q. 1 c5"l-~~:;01 A1Y-~11l1l;;!-0l-~qJl.!i!.
oj] ~~ ~
71~~
~lJl- ~T~oJ1Ai~
~.!?-l~:;~
4f~ 7l-T~
7l-T~
l:ll~~ ~~
J%~~
5:.A]7l-7-l1~Al-,7l-T~l:ll{lEll~Al-,
%78~(2008) ~ 1982\1 lJl-E:1 2007\17Jl-A]5:.A]7l-7-l1~Al-~ iE-~ ~ ~51} ~~ ~:; ~ 50~150%oJ] 4fc5"l-~ 5:.A]:C.£Al- 7l-T~ ~li!~
{[~A~] ~
~7l-~
.f
EE~ ~~Al-li'il7l-T~l:ll{lEll~Al-~
~ l:l1~01 1996\1 68.5%oJ]Ai 2006\1 58.5%.£ Al4f~_Q_.£ {[~c5"l-~q~ AJ-_Q_.£ iE-~~ ~.!?-l~:;
50~150%~ 7l-T l:l1~01 2003\1 60.4%oJ]Ai 2009\1 55.5%.£ l:ll~~ 71Zl- ~ 33.5% oj] 75~150%oJ] 4f
~ ~ ~~c5"l-~q. \:f~4-(2007)7l~~~:;~
"8"1-~71-T~ 1:I1"F~ 1:I1.llL~~4 "F~~ 71-T~ 1:I1%012000\1 01+ J.l14f {f~"6~ ~q~ ~ ~~q. "F~*.91 1:I1"F.c:1998\1 42.3%011"'i 2000\1 43.7%.£ ~71-~q71. .!!q iT78"8"1-Jl 010114f"8"1-~ 71-T.91 1:I1"F~ ~~~
-3!.Q_.£
-3!
~4 1997\1 9l~~71
~AJ~ 71-T.91 ~~J.l1~ °1%~ 4-~'6ll"'i ~~ ~ <T ~ ~ 71-'o.!8 ~ ~1.:g-~q. \f~4L(2007)~ <tl ~ T <?:!s:.Zl-~ if up:: 51D: ~ 01~~ ~
T~
~4 "F~~~
14%~ AJ~*.Q_'£
AJ~~q~
-3! ~ ~~q.
°1~~
~*"8"1-~ 1ft~ 21%~ ~~~.Q_.£ ~~"8"1-Jl EE~ 1998\1011"'i 2004\1 "'1-01.91~01~~~ J.l1 ~~"8"1-n1 21%~ "8"1-7J~71-'o.!801 ~q~ -3!~
"8"1-~~.Q_'£
~~ ~4 "F~~~
~~~.Q_'£
~~"8"1-0::]"F~~011"'i
J.l1*01 ~~.!!q~
~7,j"8"1-~q. £ll:l1-%, ;Q.!8~(2009) Q:jA11998\1011"'i 2006\1 "'1-°1~ 71Zl-~ ~1ft.Q_'£ Y-To.] ~~J.l1~.91 °1%~ ~~~ ~4 1998\1011"'i 2002\1 "'1-0101160.8%71- "F~~ A1~~ %A1~ 1ft~, 18.7%71- ~~"8"1-Jl 20.5%71- "8"1-7J"8"1-~.Q_n1, 2002\1011"'i 2006\1 "'1-01.9171Zl-011~ 62.6%
71- "F~~
AJ~~
"8"1-~
~q~
-3! ~ ~7,j"8"1-~q.
A1-li~ 01%"8"1-0::] "F~~~ ~ 50~150% ~~"8"1-~q. 1:I1"F~ J.l1~01%~
10%
5000.00
10000.00
15000. 00
~OOOO. 00
~~ 01-~~ °1%~
[.=r~ 1]~ A1-li~ Al~ ~:£<{l 1998\1:£~ .!i!.oj~q. 01 "8"l~.£.=r~oJ]J'i y-~\R ~olq.
5:.~~~~
"8"1
~.£.=ri@~
7J~
jf_Al~
.!f-~01 %-~~oJl
i5~-.:a-~q.
1:I1JiL%1-oj -~~ %
71-.::r %- %-~~
Al~ ~ Al4f%1-71y-
01 .=r~oJ]J'i ~~1£
~ 70%oJl"i 75% A1-01~ ..2.71-~ ~.Q..£ y-~y-~ ~~, 20% A1-01~ ..2.71-0:1 ~~1£ 11-1;=-oJl1:I1i5~%1-7J-~ 1:I1-£-01 ~~ 2004\1, 2004\1i!} 2008\1 ~ 1:I1iL'9i ~ o:J1Jl~ %-~~oJl J o Y-~B q.
3:~
~~,
1998\1i!} 2008\1~
AJ-~Ol%~
7'0.'0
olE[
---vc:::
-Ys
=
VJ- 9- ~q. ~~01 ul~oJl ul~~ ul~oJl"i 1:I1i5~%~.::roJl nf2~
%-~~~ ~ A1-li~
78
~c>i
~n ~n- 20%
~~~.Q..£
Al~71- ~<{l-~"8"1-q~
~ ~ .!i!.oj~q.
~~~~ Jtl%~ ~~
78~n~:§J-~ ~~~(~~ ~~
~~§.
~~~AJ)
~£~
~ 9- ~~
~~
~~7-l1~
01 01
~~~~(volati1ity)~ ~~~§.
~~~AJ ~ ~~"8"1-~ l:lJ~ ~ qOJ"8"1-q. "8"1-;<1~ ~oJl"i 71-~ ~{!~Oljl J ;<1-~31}l:ll.ll!."511"i Jtl:§}~£~
~§. °1~~ ~~~ Jtl:§}~ JE€'411~1-~ ::r-"3"1-~ ~olq(Dynan, Elmendorf & Sichel, 2007). ~ ~ ~ ~ 01Y- ;<1-~~ Jtl:§}71- i':§~<>i £ .£T l:ll~~ ~ £§. Jtl:§}"9)l q~ ~~1 ~ E..§. ~.¥. ~ ~ AJ~ ~ ;<1 oJl~ ~ Jtl:§}71-~~ ~ 01q. "3"1-;<1 ~~ Jtl:§}~ l:lJ"6"JOl ~ £71- 71-::r- §. ~ ~ Y~ ~ ~1-°1~ .!;!_~q~ ~.¥.~~ ;<l~oJl ~ Jtl:§}71-~~ :§}oJl"i~ ~~ 1I.€'411~1-§. y-El-lJ ~olq. 01-~~ "5ll~~*01
[J~
~Oljl
~~
°1~~
Jtl
~£~
~~~
71-::r-oJl~"511~£~§. q~
~~~E..§'
::r- .£T 1998\1 78~1~71 ~.f 50~ '8~ ~~ Jtl%~ ~ .!;!_01q71-~~"8"1-1l140~£§' Jtl% AJol {[~"3"1-~ ~A~l ~ .!;!_~q. "3"1-;<1~ 9-€'~ "5ll.2l9l-l:l1.ll!."511 ~~"3"1 Jtl%~Ol ~q J .!;!_~ jl ~ 9- ~q. Dynan 'g(2007)~ ~::r-oJl
n:]-2 ~
ul';; 71-::r-~ ~~
~~ 25~ '8~ ~£oJl 01271711-;<1;<14;=-~E..§' ~01-~q. ~~ l:lJ~ ul';;31} ~.;;~ ~~7@_31}~ l:l1.ll!."5ll .!;!_~ ~';;01 ul';;oJl l:l1"511 ~~~ ~q~ "1-~ ~ ~ 9- ~q.
9-€,01 ~~~E..§'
30 25 20
3'1);
40.Q
30.0
25
2,0
15
10.0
IS
]0
10 5
%~ O:jClY-ti~7l-T~~ ~%AJ ~ <i1T~ ~4(Kerm, 2oo3)oJl u:]-g~ pl~ol %~oJl 1:I1 "5~ 7l-T ~~9j ~%J801 1:-1 itqJl ~q. ~~ ~~ 7l-T~~9j ,*~~J8~ %~~ %~Ol Jl pl~oJl 1:I1"6Jl"1.:£ u~~ it~ 4--€'°lti~ ~ ~ ~ 4- ~q. ~~~~~~~~~~%J89j4--€'~itJl~~~~*4q~~~~*9j~%J8~~~ .:J..qAl 3Al ~~ ~~ q~ ~~(Al-~~~olY- 0l~~~ ~)~ ~%J801 it715:. '6l-Al~7l-T ~~9j 7l-7cf-e- -¥-~~ ;<l-Al'6l-~ -c.£~~~ ~%AJol it71 U1l~oltiJl W 4- ~q. ol-i!ll [.:J..~ 4]~ 7l-T~ ~-c.£~~ oJl"-19j ~%AJ~ pl-~7l-Al~-6J_2_'£ <i15:.~.£~78~ ~401q. Al-~ ~~~Y-~~~~~~~~~~T~~~~~%J843~qg~~~~4~~O:j-€,~
60.0
.50 .. 0
40.0
30.0
10.0
00
+------.---.------,----.------.----.------.----.--------,----,
Stand!~lltld! ne,vi1il!t~o]], ,of :Peit~iLli;'nt C:1~a!ll:g:e~ Y'r,-'Iby-',Yr ]h~s.iIDe:a(ill, IQ(F'3,-',Y It' :R'lIillill~l"g'i\fifl;d\O'l\~8
~~%oJ1 ~~
<i1T~
\f~~,2009)oJ1
~:;~~~oJ1l:l1i;~
"i ~~ ~ ~ ~.£7} tl~ ~~ ¥ o}L-14 78fij1~71 ol:@-¥-E=1"7}i;~ ~JI. £l-2-17}A1.£Al4f ~ -6:j.2..£ {J~!9JI. ~q~ -5l~ ~ 4- ~q. 3:~ ~~ 7}TA}~~ 7}~ ~ -¥-~~ ~}A1il}~
-¥-%~A}~~
~~~01 7}TA}~~ ~~~oJ1 u1~1~ ~"il=°1 ~.£-6:j°14~ -5l~ ~ 4- ~q . 7}T A}~~ 7}~ ~ -¥-~~ ~}A1il}~ -¥-%~ A}~~ ltJ.%~~ ~~~ ~.B..7} ltJ.%~ ~ %{J.2..£ A}~~
ltJ.%Aa
¥ o}1-J4 <i1.£~£
~~ ~01 ~"@r:~10lCl~ AlA~lltJ.%~78~cs-11ft~i;~"i %tg~ ~~ 7}'oAao1 ~A1 *cs-}q. o}~ 5~ 2000\1 01~ o}3I}g 1I~1I~7}~ltJ.%~~ .!!O:1€,-q.~7fcs-1 ~,<: ltJ.%~~ .!!~ ¥ o}1-J4 %~~~ AJ7f -¥-~~ ~}A1cs-}~ 4-.£-=t!~ O}3I}E ltJ.%~01 lI~Jt ~,<: -5l~ ~ 4- ~ f£,<: -¥-~01 -¥-%~ 2009)~ 7}TA}~~ ltJ.%~01 ~ -5l~ ~ ~A1~q. q. -¥-%~ A1~~ 0lCl~ ~~78Aa'<: 7}T :@~1~ %~01.B.. 7}TA}~~ .2..£ %0:1 ~~ %~*(\fAJ~, \1~ °1~ -¥-%~ A1~~ if % 011n:r4 ?~1ff.!! ~~~
g tg 0:1-¥-7}~~:!C]A1 *iill"i 3lJl~~~ ~ iI}71 .!?-l~ ltJ.4-£"i tl-%7}~17} ~A1 *iI}q.lI ~ g tgo1 oPF-Oi~ q JI. cs-}r:i -¥-%~ A}~~ 7}~1~ -¥-%~ A1 4.£ ~~ ltJ. 011n:r4"i % %
~cs-12000
~o} ?~ ~ T~~ 78Jt7} f£,<: % ~*~ 78Jt -¥-%~ A1~~ ~~oJ1 n:r4 7}7-n~ -¥-1ffo13Jl1 ltJ.%cs-}0:1 ~%A1~~ ltJ.%oJ1 n:r::: °lA}% -¥-1ff~ ltJ.%31} ~~1 7}7-l1 :@1ft~ ~~78~ ~ 3Jl1 ~~ -5l.2..£ aJ1AJ~ 4- ~q .
.l.lIj;OO .--~~
00:00 I
~~l ~~ 4=-(2009:
146)
°1%~
~%Ar~ol
-¥-%~ Ar
~oJ1 l:llc5~7r7-l1~ ~71 AJ-:9J-oJ1"'-j ~l:lr£_ ~~~£1O-j tr%~ 7r'oAJo1 ~q~ 1i31} °r%C1 £l~ ?-6lA17cfoJ1 Jf-Ar'8"r~ 7]C[l Jf-ArAr~ol 3711 ~O-j ~%Ar~~ ~%~01 ~%A17cf.9.J ~ %~oJ1 3711 ~~~ ~~ 7r'oAJo1 ~or~71 D1l~olq. KLIPS Arli~ ol%'8"rO:j ~%Ar~.9.J ~%~ ~%~ ~~A17171 ~~loJ1l:llc5~ ~%AJ~ ~~ ~ iE-~'8"r~"'-j ~i!1 ~ ~%Ar~~ 5!-711.!i!.O:j~ 7r'o~01 ~x.1j]:l ~~"}ftj1 ~%01
11]
01
~.2..£_ 3frt!'8"r~q.
2{)G1
2{){)2
W03
2OD4
W05
:W05
,"om
~.9.J [J~ 6]'<: ~~1 7r.::r ~ "F~* 7r.::r~ ~%Ar~.9.J 3\1 °1%~TI-~ ~%~ ~ .!i!.O:j -€,-q. ~lft~.2..£_ °1%3{ilTI-~ ~%AJ~oJ1x. ~.::r'8"rJl ~1f'8"1 ~,<: y-€,-~ ~%~ ~ .!i!.<?]q ~ ~ ~ ~ y ~.2..uj, ~~~ c5Jlt;l ~q~
~ ~**oJ1 l:l1c5Jl"F~*.9.J ~%Ar~ ~%~01 t:-j ~q~ ~ ~ .9.Jo1~qJl ~ yx. ~q. A1711j]:l"}A~l~ 2003\17JrAl ~%AJo1 5!-0rA1q7r 2004\1oJ1 if 7.4'8"1~or~q7r qA1 5!-0rAl ~ ~ ~ ~ y ~q. 2003\1 .!i!-~01 7r~I:Jl~01 ~A~~ A17101Jl 014- ~%.:g~ 7r7-l1I:Jl~01
7r7-l1.9.J~%Ar~
~~~01 ~~ ~~01
~;1Jl 7]-.:roJ1Ai ~]-;<1"8"}~l:l1~01 ~c>i ~ ~Jl ~~~ ;E~ ~~3l} ~%;<]-~9.J ltJ.%AJ ~~~"8"}q~ ~ ~ .!i!.~q. ;<l*oJl ~ ~
¥ o}YiQ-, u~\1 20% 7}71]-017-11~ "5}~ ~~oJl .!i!.0lJl ~c>i ~fill~ iE-~ ~3l}~
~-c
1:Jl;1Jl.£ ~ ~]P·J-~~q.
Ai -¥-~~~~,
~3l} ~l:l1~~01
c>i~c>i ll.taj~ ;<1*01 {f~"9!.2..u:j, ~;<}7]-.:r9.J l:l1~01 15.8%oJ1Ai 23.3%.£ ~o}~qJl.!i!.Jl "8"}~q. ;E~ 7}.:r.:rAJ ~oJ1Ai ~"BJ~ ~~~ 7]-.:r~ ~AJol 301:Jl filla:<ij \f"'j7]-.:r9-9.J ~01 7]-.:r.£-¥-E~ 401:Jl Ail:l16<ij \fL~ ~~01 7]-.:r.£ l:l]-Jfl~qJl ~q. ~~~~ ;<l~oJl 0127171]-;<1 1:Jl7171zro1 3l}r]oJl l:ll~~ 10\1 7]-71]-01~c>i~.2..u:j -¥--¥-7]- £
T ~'Bfl0j:
~~"8"}q. olq. ~"5}q. °1~~ ~ qg9.J
~~~ G]
~%~ ~~~~
~~
~~
~olq.
"8"};<1~
2~301:Jl9.J ~~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 'T ~ ~ tiJl71};<l~~ 01 ~~"8"}71 tiJl~ c5"J=.f~p}Y- ~~~~ ;<1~oJ1 012111 ~;<1 ~-¥-.£ ~~ ~~~~ c>i~~ ~"'~oJ1Ai ~"1 Djlf-~ ;<1~7]- ~;<1 AJ-~oJl 1:Jl
.£ £2 ~ ~01 ~~olq.
~-c
p1~~
T ~~~ ~y:q~ ~~oliQ-Jl .!i!.o}.£ 3.111 q2;<1 ?:§~ ~olq. "p1~ ~~~ 7]~1f71 ~'BflAi t:i 1t~ "lzr ~~ "5}~ ~01 o}YiQ-, \1;<1 fill;<}y:qoJlDj~71 ~~~
~~ 'Bfloj: ~q(Warren ~q. and Tyagi, 2003).";E~ ~ -¥-~H~ ~~ "~~~ 7]-~~~ 3l}~oJ1 -6J~"5}1I1 oj1~~ ;<1*
¥ o}yiQ- J~ol
7]-~~ol
"5}~ %.£oJl t:i 7lq~ °lfill71]-;<l~~~oJl1:Jl~ ;<1~~ ~~~oJ1 ~ 'T ~~ ~ °1~~ c>i~~ %;<1"5}717} ~~
7]-7-11 oj1~ol %%~ol;<l "8"} tiJl~ol o}t:]iQ- J~ol 71 ~~ol 0:]-271 tiJl~olq(Hacker, 2006: 99)." ~Jl~ ~~c>i~q~ ~~~ ~~~oJl
°1~01 ~~~9.J
~ol~q.
4f~ 7]-.:r~.£
~9.J ~~ ~ ~{I_ ~iP} W_Jl, ~~~9.J 71~ ~"'jo1iQ-Jl ~11 P]-~3l} ;<}L~ .ll1.~9.J -¥-1ffo1 3l}~~HAi ~~~ p1:e1l~ :g--?t 'T W_q~ ~y:q iE-*"5}~ ~ollf-c ~:§t7]- ~c>i7]-Jl ~~;<1.£ ~p17]- ~~7]£~q. ~~"5};<1 ?:§~ 'T w_q. ~~~~ ~ Beck(1997)01 ;<1~~
Al-%?~7l~~A1:£
A1l:l~'8-r~ :I.%Al7cl-oJ1A-j7~<?l:§]-B ~~ lil?£.A-j "6-{l-~~ A1~ ~~~ 0101 £~q. tfrQf J~q~
"8"l-Y-~ ~t!_2_£.A-j ~~
~t!.dj
AJ-~oJ1A-j"6-{l-~~
~01,"
~:r.%~~'i1T.!
~17-Ti ~14~ ~
~*~,
-----,2006. %7d~,
2010. ~~~
2003. "-F{l-~91 .!fj71, lE~5l}- ~~91 t:1ll:lP~.! ~124~, pp. 42-56. "-F{l-*, ~~71~ At~OJ~§} ~~ ~ll;tt ¥''l:i ~lE~~.
~~--9J1
~t8-
5~~91 5~~~7t?"
°lA~~, 2006. "~~91 At~~~5l}l;tt ¥''l:i ~3I~~. °1~~, °113~, 2001. "~~ pp. 39-51.
-F{l-~91 Q:jw5l}-At~~~
7tJ-l1At{l- ~~~91
=%n~ ~~:r.%'i1T~,
~13;tt ~~:r.
3':%71, 2006. "~~ -F{l-*,91 At~7d~l~ 'l:i ~lE~~. ~l:lt%, ~13~, 2009, "7tT::;135l}- ~~J-l1*, %'i1T~. pp. 419-445.
::;13," ~~At~~~
s.
~"I'l.!f-, 2009. "5:.A1 ~"€JlA17cf91~%135l}- -¥-%{l- ~~91 ~J-l1: IMF .!fj71 01+ Ai%~ ~~A1Q:jA1~~~A1.! ~115-Ti ~11~. pp. 138-160. ~t:1l7d~l'i1T~, 2011. ~~~ -F{l-~91 T3':~ ~§}: 1990\1 01+ ~~
-F{J~.£,"
~1
Dynan, Karen E., Douglas W. Elmendorf, and Daniel E. Sichel, 2007. "The evolution of household income volatility," FRB working paper. Hacker, Jacob S. 2006. The Great Risk Shift. Oxford University Press. Kerm, Philippe Van, 2003. "An anatomy of household income volatility in European countries," CHER working paper. Newman, Katherine S. 1988. Falling from grace: downward mobility in the age of affluence. University of California Press. Warren, E. and A.W. Tyagi, 2003. The Two-Income Trap: Why Middle-Class Mothers and Fathers are Going Broke, Basic Books.