IPU RESEARCH NOTE

ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION ELECTRICITY GENERATION ESTIMATES (2011)

APRIL 2011 ipu.msu.edu
The following graphs are based on data reported in the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (December 2010, http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/index.cfm), along with details provided in Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Electricity Generation Plants (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcosts/index.html) and Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity_generation.html). MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC UTILITIES REGULATORY RESEARCH AND EDUCATION

EIA estimated electricty generation sources in 2011 DG - gas 0.0% CHP - coal 0.7% Renewable 10.4% CHP - petroleum CHP - gas 0.0% 3.3% CHP - rrenewable 0.1%

Nuclear 20.6%

Coal 45.1%

Natural gas 18.8%

Petroleum 1.0%

Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (U.S. EIA, Dec. 2010)

Exhibit 1. EIA estimated electricity generation sources in 2011.

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EIA estimated electricity generation from all sources (bil. kWh) 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Natural gas Nuclear power Petroleum Other

Renewable

Coal

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (U.S. EIA, Dec. 2010)

Exhibit 2. EIA estimated electricity generation from all sources.

EIA estimated electricity generation from renewable sources (bil. kWh) 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034

2034
Municipal waste Solar Geothermal Wood/other biomass Wind Conventional hydro

Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (U.S. EIA, Dec. 2010)

Exhibit 3. EIA estimated electricity generation from renewable sources.

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Overnight capital costs ($/kW) for generation plant alternatives

$9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0

Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Electricity Generation Plants(U.S. EIA, Nov. 2010).

Exhibit 4. EIA estimated overnight capital costs for generation plant alternatives.

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Average levelized cost of generation alternatives (2009 $/MWh for plants entering service in 2016)
Transmission investment $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Variable O&M (including fuel) Fixed O&M Levelized capital cost Capacity factor (r-axis) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Estimated Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources , 2016 from Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (U.S. EIA, Dec. 2010).

Exhibit 5. EIA estimated levelized cost of generation alternatives (2009 $/MWh for plants entering service in 2016).
Average and range of levelized cost for generation alternatives (2009 $/MWh for plants entering service in 2016)

$650 $600 $550 $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 63.1 66.1 86.4

311.8 243.2

210.7 112.5 113.9 124.5 136.2

89.3

94.8

97.0

101.7

103.5

109.4

Estimated Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources , 2016 from Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (U.S. EIA, Dec. 2010).

Exhibit 6. Range of levelized cost for generation alternatives (2009 $/MWh for plants entering service in 2016).

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