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WASHINGTON STATE
Summary
Events are unfolding as expected in the November forecast
However, the uncertainty in the baseline remains very high, mostly due to out-of-state factors
Within WA, there is fiscal drag from declining state and local government budgets
Revenue growth has been restrained due to a stagnant construction sector Revenues since the November forecast are $20 million (1.2%) above expectations
Events to date since the November forecast do not indicate the need for a significant forecast revision
WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
The states risk matrix shows most risks from outside state
EUROPE Sovereign Debt EUROPE Banks
GRE ITA IRL ESP POR
DEU
FRA
U.S. Banks
Washingtons Economy
ITALY
IRELAND
PORTUGAL
FRA Cont.
$ 1.4 trillion
Source: Bank of International Settlements, 2011 Q2 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
3.0
Percent
2.8
2.5
2.2 2.0
1.6 1.5
2.1
2.2
1.8
1.7
2011 September
2012 November
2013 December
Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, data through December 2011 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
The U.S. economy is now producing its pre-recession output with fewer jobs
Data normalized to recession start, 2007Q4 = 0
200
0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000
Billions of Dollars
-6 -8 -10
10
12
GDP
14
Quarters
Employment
Source: BEA, BLS, ERFC; data through 2011 Q3
Productivity
25 1980 1985 1990 U Mich 1995 2000 Conf Board 2005 2010
Source: University of Michigan; Conference Board, data through December 2011 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
Small business optimism and sales expectations are weak but improving
National Federation of Independent Business
3 month sales growth expectation, percent 40 30 20 10 0 95 90 105 100 Optimism Index, 1986=100
-10
-20 -30 -40
85
80 75
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sales Expectations
Optimism Index
Source: National Federation of Independent Business; data through November 2011 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
80
70
60
Percent
50 40 30 20 10
Greek Crisis
PIIGS Debt
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2011
U.S. LMV sales have recovered from recent supply chain disruptions
WA New Vehicle Registrations, Thousands, 3 MMA, SA
25
30
20
24
15
18
10
12
0 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 U.S. Light Trucks U.S. Cars
Source: Autodata Corporation, WA DOL; data through December 31, 2011, WA estimated WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
Relative age of the car fleet indicates continued turnaround in car sales
The percent of old cars on the road was at a historic high in June and has now been falling over the last 6 months
35%
30%
25%
Source: Autodata Corporation, ERFC; data through December 2011 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
WA non-residential contracts have turned up for the first time in four years
Non-Residential Contract Value Annual Percent Change
50 40 30 20 Percent
Arun Raha Economic Outlook January 13, 2012
Slide 12
10 0 -10 -20
-30
-40 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
Source: McGraw-Hill Construction, data through November 2011 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
45
40 35 Thousands
Arun Raha Economic Outlook January 13, 2012
Slide 13
30 25 20 15 10
5
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 Multiple
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; data through November 2011 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Single
15
10
Percent
5 0 -5 -10 -15
-20
Arun Raha Economic Outlook January 13, 2012
Slide 14
-25
2001
2003 Seattle
2005
2011
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller; data through October 2011 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
Seriously Delinquent
12.0
10.0
Percent
0.0
2008
2009
2010
U.S.
2011
Washington
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association National Delinquency Survey, data through 2011 Q3 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
4.0
3.0
Percent
Arun Raha Economic Outlook January 13, 2012
Slide 16
2.0
1.0
0.0
2008
2009
2010
U.S.
2011
Washington
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association National Delinquency Survey, data through 2011 Q3 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
1200
3000 Backlog
800
2000
400
YTD
1000
0
Arun Raha Economic Outlook January 13, 2012
Slide 17
0 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Backlog
Net Orders
Source: Boeing, data through November 2011
Deliveries
-5
Arun Raha Economic Outlook January 13, 2012 Source: ERFC November 2011 forecast; actual through November 2011
Slide 18
WA export growth is strong, and will help state outperform in the recovery
Total exports were up 29% y/y in Q3
Exports Percent Change, year ago
80 60 40 20 0 -20
-40
1998 2000 Total 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source: Wiser Trade Data; through 2011 Q3 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
South Korea
4th
$2.7 Billion
5.1%
Panama
27th
$315 million
0.6%
Transportation Equipment
Colombia
Arun Raha Economic Outlook January 13, 2012
50th
$56 million
0.1%
1.04
1.03 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.98
0.97
2007 2009 Washington 2011 U.S. 2013
Source: ERFC November 2011 forecast; actual through November 2011 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
1.04
1.02 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.94 2007 2009 Washington 2011 U.S. 2013
Real 2012Q2
U.S.: Nominal 2010Q4
Real 2012Q3
Source: ERFC November 2011 forecast; actual data through 2011Q3 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
5.4% 0.3%
*General Fund & Related Funds for FY 07-09, General Fund new definition for FY 10-13 Source: ERFC forecast, November 2011 WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
GF-S revenues as a share of personal income will be below trend until FY13
Total General Fund-State Revenue as Percentage of State Personal Income 7.0%
Forecast
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Fiscal Years 2007 2009 2011 2013
*Current definition of Revenue Act Source: ERFC; data through FY 2011, November 2011 forecast WASHINGTON STATE ECONOMIC AND REVENUE FORECAST COUNCIL
Conclusion
The national and state economies appear headed for an extended period of muddle-through slow economic and job growth, high unemployment and weak confidence
The level of uncertainty in the baseline remains extremely high, and downside risks outweigh upside risks
Revenue growth is likely to remain flat in the near term
Arun Raha Economic Outlook January 13, 2012
Slide 25
Questions
Economic & Revenue Forecast Council 1025 E. Union Avenue, Suite 544 Olympia WA 98504-0912