12 November 2008
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Dot Earth: Will the Next Ice Age
Be Permanent?
NOV 12, 2008 10:23PM
Will the next ice age be permanent? Here, the ice sheet on Greenland.
(Credit: Andrew C. Revkin for The New York Times)
A new analysis of the dramatic cycles of ice ages and warm intervals over
the past million years, published in Nature, concludes that the climatic
swings are the gyrations of a system poised to settle into a permanent
colder state — with expanded ice sheets at both poles.
In essence, says one of the two authors, Thomas J. Crowley of the
University of Edinburgh, the ice age cycles over the past million years are
a super-slow-motion variant of the dramatic jostlings recorded by a
seismograph in an earthquake before the ground settles into a new quiet
state. He and William T. Hyde of the University of Toronto used climate
models and other techniques to assess the chances that the world is
witnessing the final stages of a 50-million-year transition from a planet
with a persistent warm climate and scant polar ice to one with greatly
expanded ice sheets at both poles.
Their findings have stirred a lot of skepticism in the community of
specialists examining ancient records of past climate changes and how
they might relate to variations in Earth’s orbit and orientation toward
the Sun and other factors. I’ll be adding some of their reactions overnight
(I’m on the road).
The Nature paper goes on to propose that humans, as long as they have a
technologically powerful society, would be likely to avert such a slide into
a long big chill by adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. That
doesn’t obviate the need to curb such emissions and the prospect of
dangerous climate warming in the short run, Dr. Crowley said. But it is
more evidence that like it or not, the future of conditions on Earth is
likely to be a function of human actions, whether chosen or not.
The idea that human actions can dominate the climatic influence of
things as grand as shifts in a planet’s orbit is hard to grasp, but quite a
few climate specialist say it’s pretty clear this is the case. In 2003, I wrote
an article exploring when scientists think we’ll slide into the next ice age
(the conventional variety). James Hansen of NASA echoed Dr. Crowley,
saying that as long as we’re technologically able, we’ll be able to keep the
big ice at bay. Strange, wonderful stuff, climate science.
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Wheels: Truck Sales Rebound
(It’s Complicated)
NOV 12, 2008 10:23PM
On Tuesday, The Associated Press reported that gas prices fell for the
17th straight week since July 4. In some states, prices are now below $2 a
gallon.
Which makes one wonder if vehicle loyalties are about to change. After
all, if ricocheting gas prices led to a frenetic demand for smaller, fuel-
efficient cars, then by the same logic lower gas prices should reverse that
trend.
Ford trucks. (David Zalubowski/Associated Press)
“Since June and July, we’ve been seeing data showing a gradual
movement back toward bigger vehicles,” said Tom Libby, an analyst with
J.D. Power & Associates.
“Loyalty in the large pickup segment has been steadily rising since June,”
he said. The large pickup share in September and October was healthy,
up substantially over May and June. And the percentage of vehicles sold
with 4-cylinder engines — more than 50 percent of the total in May and
June — declined to 42.6 percent in October.”
History is repeating itself, Mr. Libby explained. Americans began buying
smaller cars as a result of the Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 and the
second price shock that followed the 1979 Iranian revolution. After both
gas spikes “there has been a movement back toward mid-sized and larger
vehicles in the U.S. market,” Mr. Libby said.
Still, he does not think that consumer interest in hybrids and other fuel-
efficient vehicles will evaporate. “People still think that prices will go
back up, and they want to be part of the general movement to get away
from imported oil,” Mr. Libby said.
But consumer preferences are only one piece of the puzzle, said David
Cole, chairman of the Center for Automotive Research.
“Because of last year’s energy bill and its stronger Corporate Average
Fuel Economy standards, there can’t be that much regression on the part
of the industry,” Mr. Cole said. “The companies are taking out a lot of
capacity to build large pickups and S.U.V.’s, and nobody’s going to build
it back in.”
Today’s Tabbloid PERSONAL NEWS FOR YOU
Charles Territo, a spokesman for the Alliance of Automobile
Manufacturers, also thinks fuel efficiency is here to stay. For 2009, he
said, there will be 140 models with fuel economy of more than 30 miles
per gallon on the highway. And that doesn’t seem likely to change,
despite the recent shift to larger vehicles.
General Motors is basing future product on projected oil prices that are
higher than they are today. “We are looking at gas prices being low
because of the depressed global economy,” explained John M.
McDonald, a G.M. spokesman. “When the recovery starts, we expect to
see demand start to come back and oil prices rebound.”
Mr. McDonald also cautioned against seeing a simple cause-and-effect
between lower prices and higher light-truck sales. He attributed some of
that rise to “dramatically higher” incentives for large trucks this year
compared to last year.
Given the dire straits of some automakers, however, it’s inevitable that
some very fuel-efficient models, even much-anticipated ones, will be
delayed or suspended. Such is the fate of the Saturn Vue plug-in hybrid,
which will now appear in 2011 instead of 2010.
“When we revealed it, we said it could come out as early as 2010,” said
Rob Peterson, another G.M. spokesman. But 2011 is “where it’s landing
at this point in time.” The Chevrolet Volt, he added, remains on track.
Earlier:
As Gas Prices Go Down, Driving Goes Up
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City Room: Stick a Fork in
Harlem Soul Food?
NOV 12, 2008 10:23PM
M&G Diner, famed for its fried chicken, has been closed since the
summer. (Photo: Chester Higgins Jr./The New York Times)
As recently as 15 years ago, there were few dining options available in
Harlem aside from soul food.
But the neighborhoods’ collection of soul food restaurants has long been
dwindling — as tastes change, health concerns intensify and costs rise —
and recent weeks have yielded yet more bad news.
M&G Diner, opened in 1968 and famed for its fried chicken — and a
neon sign that reads, “Old Fashion’ But Good!” — closed for its annual
July sabbatical this summer and has not reopened.
Louise’s Family Restaurant, opened in 1964, has been shuttered since it
was ordered closed by the city health department in late summer.
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12 November 2008
Charles’ Southern Style Kitchen, in business since 1977, also failed a city
health inspection. It has been closed since last month.
The owner of Mobay, a popular spot on 125th Street near Fifth Avenue
that serves healthy soul food-inspired dishes, declared bankruptcy last
month, although it remains open. Sheron Barnes, the owner, has blamed
layoffs among Harlem’s Wall Street employees for the slowdown at the
restaurant, and has vowed to introduce lower-priced items to the menu,
which has several entrees that cost more than $20.
Other survivors include Edmonds’ Cafe, Margie’s Red Rose Diner, Billie’s
Black, Londel’s Supper Club, Sylvia’s and various branches of Manna’s.
The current economic downturn seems to be hitting Harlem businesses
particularly hard. On some blocks of Frederick Douglass Boulevard,
closed storefronts outnumber businesses that remain open.
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City Room: Paterson Calls for
$5.2 Billion in Budget Cuts
NOV 12, 2008 10:06PM
Gov. David A. Paterson announced major budget cuts during a news
conference at his office in Midtown Manhattan. (Photo: James
Estrin/The New York Times)
Gov. David A. Paterson dropped the budget hammer on Wednesday,
proposing $5.2 billion worth of cuts over the next 16½ months, with
Medicaid and education, the two largest pieces of the budget, bearing the
brunt of the pain.
The governor said he would not seek layoffs, but state workers are being
asked to forgo a previously negotiated 3 percent pay raise for next year, a
move that would require the labor unions to reopen their contracts.
Labor leaders have already expressed reluctance to make such a move.
The governor is also proposing to make state workers pay for a greater
part of the bill for their health care benefits.
The governor said during a press conference on Wednesday morning
that Wall Street had “bailed us out” for years, but “now the well has run
dry” amid Wall Street’s turmoil and the state must halt its free-spending
habits.
“We’re not going to get out of this quagmire we’ve built until we reduce
our spending,” he said.
But hospital and teachers’ unions, and unions that represent state
workers, have already started to lay the groundwork for a fight over the
budget cuts.
Danny Donohue, president of the Civil Service Employees Association,
Today’s Tabbloid PERSONAL NEWS FOR YOU
rejected reopening the contract talks this week, saying “the governor
knows, or should know, that reopening contracts is not acceptable to
C.S.E.A.”
“Any serious businessperson knows that a contract is a contract,” Mr.
Donohue said.
The cuts come as the state faces a $1.5 billion deficit in the current
budget, for the fiscal year that ends on March 31, and a $12.5 billion
deficit next year. Lawmakers return in a week for a special session in
Albany, where they will take up the governor’s proposed cuts and, no
doubt, counter with their own proposals — Senate Republicans have
already rejected the idea of school aid cuts.
Legislators must approve any cuts, though state law requires that the
budget be balanced. The governor’s plan is only a prelude to far steeper
cuts the state will have to make to bring next year’s budget in balance.
Even if the Legislature signed off on the governor’s proposals, the state
would still have an $8.8 billion deficit next year. The governor has
already said there will be billions of dollars in health and education cuts
to come.
Teachers unions and educators are sure to recoil at the cuts. Under the
governor’s plan, there would be midyear reductions in school aid for the
first time since the early 1990s, with $585 million cut from aid in the
current fiscal year and another $844 million next year. The plan would
reduce aid to school districts across the state and also reduce spending
on math and science grants, libraries, arts grants and special teacher
mentoring programs. The cuts to state education aid are laid out in detail
in a 39-page Deficit Reduction Assessment released by the governor’s
office, below.
Students at the State University of New York and the City University of
New York would see tuition increase by $300 in the spring session and
by $600 next year. Cuts to the State University of New York and the City
University of New York would total $348 million over this year and next
year.
Medicaid and other health care programs would be cut by $572 million
this year and $1.2 billion next year under the governor’s plan. The
governor is proposing to reduce the amount of money the state
reimburses health care providers for a variety of procedures and also to
eliminate the annual inflation adjustment made to Medicaid
reimbursements. The state will also increase taxes on health insurers.
Aid to New York City would also be cut by $41 million this year, to $205
million.
School Aid by District Get your own at Scribd or explore
others:
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12 November 2008
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Motherlode: Should Parents Go
to School?
NOV 12, 2008 8:28PM
Illustration by Barry Falls
In the schools of Jericho, L.I., teachers and administrators are
wondering where the parents are. As reported today by my colleague
Winnie Hu, as the district’s cultural populations have shifted — the
district is now 30 percent Asian students, most of them recent
immigrants — the presence of parents at everything from back-to-school
night, to orchestra concerts, to PTA meetings has gone down.
Contrast this with a study that was released last month by Civic
Enterprises and funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, which
found that parents of students in low-performing schools feel shut out
and uninformed about what goes on during their children’s school days.
Among the findings of the report, called “One Dream, Two Realities:
Perspectives of Parents on America’s High Schools,” while 85 percent of
parents in high-performing districts (defined as a school where most
students go on to college) felt those schools were doing a good job
encouraging parents to be involved, only 47 percent of parents in low-
performing districts (where most students do not go on to college) felt
similarly involved.
Jericho is not one of the low-performing districts. Last year 13 percent of
graduating seniors were off to the Ivy League. It a place to which parents
move because of the qualities of the schools, and the barriers to
participation there seem to be cultural, with Asian families believing
parents only go to school if something is wrong.
How much parental involvement in school — particularly as children get
older — is the right amount? I don’t think it’s as simple as “more is
better.”
The problem uncovered by the Civic Enterprises study was that parents
felt kept in the dark. Only half of parents in the low-performing schools
felt “welcomed” into the building, compared with four out of five parents
in the high-performing schools. And while half of parents in the high-
performing schools felt the school kept them informed about academic
and disciplinary problems with their children, only 25 percent of parents
in the low performing schools felt similarly informed.
The problem being addressed in Jericho, on the other hand, is that
parents seem to prefer a more “hands off” approach. And the reason that
is a problem, administrators say, is because a school is more successful
when the parents are involved.
But is that really true? Or does the Civic Enterprises study suggest that
what makes a school successful is when parents feel like they are
welcome to become involved should that be necessary. And when parents
are involved behind the scenes, but not necessarily in the school
Today’s Tabbloid PERSONAL NEWS FOR YOU 12 November 2008

building. Maybe, though, when things are going just fine, they should be
a little less present.

Back when my children were younger it sometimes felt like I was going
to school with them. I was there for parent-reading days, and Halloween
parade days, and field trips to planetariums and post offices, and
Mother’s Day tea. I loved the window into their new lives, even though
some days it made it hard for me to actually get any work done.

As they get older, I see a value to backing off. While I agree with the 85
percent of the 1,006 parents of all socioeconomic stripes who told Civic
Ventures researchers that it’s a parent’s job to advocate for their child, I
don’t necessarily agree with Jericho administrators that the definition of
advocacy is showing up every time the doors are opened. I have met my
children’s teachers, and have interceded once in awhile when things have
gotten rocky, but each year I sit on my hands and bite my tongue more
and more. I fear become one of “those parents” who fight their children’s
battles before those battles even start.

So maybe the lessons here are twofold. On one end of the spectrum
schools are obligated to make parents feel connected and welcome. On
the other end, parents are obligated to know when to stay away.