Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
“Rupees are lot like seeds, you can eat the seeds or sow them”. Choice is yours?
FROM THE DESK OF HEAD, EQUITY RESEARCH CELL (CONTD.)
A company from one of the most promising
& emerging sector in India.
20-50 times, It is a sector leader, a niche player with
very strong moats.
Hmm , Isn’t it
It is a small cap company, with lots of cash
a lot of in hand (approx 35% of its Mcap) for
money? further expansion.
Scale of opportunity for this company is
almost 1000 times more than the Mcap or
Sales of the company.
Unknown management, happy
shareholders, massive expansion planned.
Valuation reasonable, almost zero debt,
great financial performance shown in the
past, once recognized by masses, PE
expansion will take place which will create
huge wealth.
They have vision to become #1 company in
its niche area not only in India but also
across the World.
Head, Equity Research, HBJ Capital
"In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe
that the bull market is near its end."
CHOICE IS YOURS!!! – PLEASE CLICK HERE
"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.
Do you see any opportunity in
“Agriculture or Food Processing”
Sector?
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR: IMPORTANT FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND
REDUCING POVERTY
When Jim Rogers
were asked about
which is the best
investment as on
today?
India is agriculture dependent
Nation… Rogers one of the top
commodity trader in
70% of population lives in villages, the world is bullish on
75% of poor are in rural areas.
agro based commodity.
Agriculture: Main source of India/China is going to
livelihood for 60% of population. consume more and
more due to increasing
Agriculture contributes about 20%
to GDP, which is a huge income level and
opportunity out there. standard of living. 14
"The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because
AGRICULTURE SECTOR (FOOD PROCESSING):
OPPORTUNITIES & CONSTRAINS.
Agriculture will have to contend
with two other problems.
India’s agricultural yields are a fraction of those of its more dynamic Asian neighbors.
Improvement needed on three fronts: public investment, new technology and deregulation
"He really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations
but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire
market and its trend.”
F-O-O-D IS A FIGHTING WORD
Agriculture will have to contend with
two other problems.
U.S. consumers spend roughly 15% of
every dollar on food. In China, 30% of
consumer income is spent on food. In
India, it's closer to 35% or even 40%.
In poorer nations, 80% of consumer
income goes to food.
The United Nations World Food Program
says the number of hungry mouths
increased by 50 million in 2007 because of
higher food prices.
Approximately 50 million acres of arable
land disappear every year thanks to the
growth in cities, urban sprawl and
economic development.
Food crisis, reason behind all conflicts.
60% of all conflicts in the past 18 years have been driven, at their core, by disputes
stemming from a scarcity of food, land or water.
By 2020s, regional food shortages could trigger hundreds of millions of new refugees and
leave no country on Earth unaffected.
When those folks run out of food, where do you think they're going to immigrate to?
"Obviously the thing to do was to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear
market."
How agriculture sector related with
food processing sector?
"When your security is acting right, you can safely add to your line from then
forward!"
INDIAN FOOD MARKET AT US$ 191 BN. THE PROCESSED FOOD
MARKET IS PROJECTED TO BE OVER US$ 100 BN
An extensive and highly fragmented industry,
the food processing sector largely comprises of
the following sub-segments: fruits & vegetables,
milk and milk products, beer & alcoholic
beverages, meat and poultry, marine products,
grain processing, packaged/convenience food and
packaged drinks.
A large number of players in this industry are
small sized companies, and are largely
concentrated in the unorganized segment. This
segment accounts for more than 70% of the
output in volume terms and 50% in value terms.
However, though the organized sector is
comparatively small, it is growing at a much
faster pace.
The Ministry of Food Processing Industries,
GoI, has estimated the size of the Indian food
market at US$ 191 bn (Rs 8,600 bn). The
processed food market is projected to be over
US$ 100 bn, of which the primarily processed
food market accounts for 60%, while the value-
added processed food market is around 40%.
The food processing industry in India has a
share of 1.5% in the total GDP of the country,
and as part of total manufacturing accounts for
9%. India’s share in world trade in respect of
processed food is about 1.6%.
"When I buy stocks for a rise I like to pay top prices and when I sell I must sell low or
not at all."
What will bridge the gap between
surging demand for food and a
limited supply of fertilizer?
Genetically modified
(GM) foods
Agri-biotechnology
"Experience has proved to me that real money made in speculating has been in
commitments in a stock or commodity showing a profit right from the start."
GM (GENETICALLY MODIFIED) CROPS KEY TO FOOD
SELF SUFFICIENCY
Agri-biotechnology, What is this?
"It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade,
than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance."
Any niche area in Agro commodity
do you suggest to focus on and do
investment?
Yes, it is….
Camson Bio Tech
HBJ CAPITAL’S FIVE GOLDEN RULES OF PICKING 10IN3
STOCKS.
Is Camson Bio Tech belongs to New
Emerging Sector?
Hybrid seeds,
Bio fertilizer,
Bio pesticides,
Zero residue fruits and
vegetables.
AGRICULTURE BIOTECHNOLOGY: THE ANSWER TO
FOOD SHORTAGES
Agriculture Biotechnology – Only
solution to India’s food crisis!!!
Agriculture is a dominant sector in India,
we see a huge opportunity in improving
agricultural productivity.
“First I determine themes that will be played out over the next several years. Then I
identify groups of stocks that reflect those themes.”
GENE REVOLUTION AND FOOD SECURITY
Bio Agri will be a very strong sector in
the years to come, in view of the Indian
government’s decision to open the
market for biotech crops.
Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to
like to lose, so they win by losing money.
1ST “PROTECT THE PLANT” AND 2ND “IMPROVE THE
PRODUCTIVITY”.
Camson has developed many
unique biocides for plant protection
and hybrid seeds for improved
productivity .
A wholly integrated
company with leadership
position in its niche area
of operation, almost no
competition!!!
WORLD IS LOOKING FOR : A CHEMICAL FREE FOOD
Why farmers prefer bio-fertilizers & bio-pesticides?
With the world increasingly becoming sensitive to
chemical-free food, and exports increasingly needing to
be zero-residue, demand for bio-fertilizers & bio-
pesticides is zooming yearly.
The world over, countries are moving towards banning
agro-chemicals due to the increasing realization of the
longer term costs on the health of their populations.
Bio-pesticides & hybrid seeds make up around 80% of the
current turnover of the company. The company sells it's
products at lower than the equivalent prices for the
chemical-based products, and with the "chemical-free,
zero-residue" advantages.
This makes it a win-win for the farmer / contract farmer.
Company has all the necessary certifications of it's
products.
Extensive details regarding the company, it’s products, it's vision etc can
be accessed on it’s website : http://www.camsonbiotechnologies.com/
Here's the essence of risk management: Risk no more than you can afford to lose, and
also risk enough so that a win is meaningful. If there is no such amount, don't play.
IF YOU WANT TO CREATE HUGE AMOUNT OF
WEALTH THEN “CATCH THEM YOUNG”.
Just think for a moment…
You are buying an undisputed leader
company whose Mcap is just Rs 70Cr,
just like a child prodigy or a product
based giant in making.
Remember that, best returns are
generated by latching on early on
unique companies with big moat (R&D
& Products Portfolio for Camson)
around them & tremendous growth
looming ahead (Opportunity 1000 times
more than its Mcap or Sales).
As of now company is too small for FII
or MF to take substantial stake in it. In
fact FII/MF has not yet looked at it.
Company planning for Private
Placement for further expansion, and
you must be knowing that PE folks
expects minimum 30-50% returns per
year.
Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the
math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty.
What is the Scale of Opportunity
here? How big Camson Bio Tech can
become?
India’s fertilizer
(nitrogen, phosphorus,
potassium: N-P-K) industry
alone worth $5bn
(Rs20,000Cr).
Usage of nutrients in
India is only 98 kg per
hectare compared with 254
kg in China. India need to
use 2.5 times more
nutrients.
INDIA NEED TO USE MORE & MORE BIO -
NUTRIENTS!!!
Bio fertilizers are sooner or later going to
replace the conventional NKP based
fertilizers due to their side effect on
human health.
“Buy the stocks of small companies below their economic value, let the companies
grow, and resell them as proven successes at full economic value.
COMPARABLE COMPANY ACROSS GLOBE?
Although there is no direct comparison
between Camson & other agro based
companies across the globe due to
diversified business, but by visualizing
their size one can understand the scale of
opportunity in agro biotech companies..
Monsanto Co, which is $61bn
listed in NYSE is 4000 times
bigger than Camson Bio.
It commands PE of 31 which is 5
times more than Camson’s PE of 6-7.
Monsanto who is a global leader in
agro biotech, has Indian subsidiary,
mentioned below is the comparison
between to giant (Monsanto) & giant
in making (Camson Bio).
“First I determine themes that will be played out over the next several years. Then I
identify groups of stocks that reflect those themes.”
Are the management unknown &
undiscovered? Have you seen their
passion at work more than
qualification?
This company is
promoted by a senior
agricultural scientist.
Management belongs to
a family of agricultural
technologists with
decades of experience in
agriculture.
UNKNOWN MANAGEMENT ? UNDISCOVERED YET?
Dhirendra Kumar – Managing Director
A senior agricultural scientist.
Belongs to a family of agricultural technologists with decades of experience in agriculture.
Technocrats with vast relevant experience.
His vision is to create a healthy and disease free society by providing safe food.
Aims at being world class manufacture of Biotechnology products.
Board of Directors : A. N. Singh, Veerendra Kumar Singh, Krishnaswamy Ramaswamy
& B.C. Madappa
“The best company in a marginal industry is worth more than the third-best company
in a major industry.”
VISION, MISSION & VALUES
Vision
To create a healthy and disease free society by providing safe food.
To pursuit for wholesome goodness in agriculture and aims at being world class
manufacture of Biotechnology products.
Camson visualizes a healthy and disease free society by providing safe food.
Just remember, any company doing work for the cause of mankind or to solve
generics problems of ours are going to excel. Like Bharti on Telecom, Pantaloon
in Retail, Educomp in Education, Infosys in IT……Camson in Bio-Nutrients &
chemical free foods.
Mission
Mission is to be a world class manufacturers of bio technology products, non
poisonous, eco friendly, zero residual product.
Values
Camson Bio, not only produced the bio-nutrients but also adds value to the society by
providing us “Residue Free” foods.
Just think if conventional fertilizer and bio-fertilizers are available at the same price
and same yield capacity then anyone in the world is going to choose bio-fertilizer
which doesn’t have side effect.
A fish at one with the water sees nothing between himself and his prey. A trader at
one with his feelings feels nothing between himself and executing his method.
HAPPY SHAREHOLDERS: A TESTIMONY OF GOOD
PROMOTERS
Whether a promoter is good or not? This might not be reflected by the company’s
income statement or balance sheet, but yes, if shareholders of the company are happy
and wish to see it amongst the foremost companies in the world, in its field.
Such statement from shareholders are really motivating, that too in spite of share
price of the company falling down by 50% from Rs 150+ to just Rs70-80 in last 6
months.
For a small company number of shareholders are normally less, and most of the time
they know personally the promoters and their vision. So, even if share prices falls
down, they are confident of the potential of the driver driving the bus.
The four most expensive words in the English language are "this time it’s different."
Any credibility based on Shares
held by Promoters or Non-
Promoters?
I thought, I'm only going to be on this planet once, and only for a short time. What can
I do with my life that will lead to permanent benefits?
NON-PROMOTERS HOLDINGS FROM DEC’07 TO JUN’08
Indirect holding thru Promoter’s
group companies + Holdings in
personal capacity…
Camson Farm Produce Pvt Ltd
(12%)
Santan Herbal & Naturals Ltd
(9.8%)
Prashant Desai (2.16)
Anand Subrahmaniyam (2.55)
Devika Anand (2.55)
Alagar Venkatesan (2.04)
Holdings by Reputed Investors. Murali Dharan (1.37)
Melchor Indian Opportunities Fund - (4%) Shiela M (1.53)
managed by U.R. Bhat (ex-JP Morgan) is new
entry here.
Grand Slam Investment Pvt Ltd – (9.3%) held
by Jignesh Shah of Financial Technologies/MCX.
Pivotal Securities Pvt Ltd – (4.43%) Prof
Mankekar investment arm.
Vivek Mundra – (1%) Director MERLIN
HOLDINGS PVT LTD (IIM -Ahmadabad
graduates ) has more than two decades of
experience in the Indian Financial Market.
Ventura Securities – (1%) Well known
brokerage.
Most investors don’t even stop to consider how much business a company does. All
they look at are earnings per share and net assets per share
SHARE IN LOCKED-IN : THEY ARE LONG TERM INVESTORS
#2. 46 Products, 10 in
Pipeline.
It’s State-of-the-art production facility spread over 20 acres of land at Bangalore North.
Almost all agri – produce, available in the market, carry pesticides residue. In many
cases, vegetables are produced using sewage water or contaminated water carrying
dangerous chemicals/effluents. The unsuspecting general populace consume these
pesticides and chemical residue loaded products.
These factors led to Camson’s vision and became the guiding force for launch of its
especially created “Zero Residue Vegetables and Fruits”.
With 22 Biocides, 7
Bio Fertilisers and
17 Hybrid Seeds,
Camson is going to
capture major
market share!!!
The essence of effective portfolio construction is the use of a large number of poorly
correlated assets
Who are the clients for Camson’s
Products?
The most predictable thing about the stock market is the number of experts who take
credit for predicting it
End users of Camson’s product are
farmers, who are mostly poor, will
they afford to buy such products?
"...look for small securities in your area of competence where you can understand the
business“
BALANCE SHEET – NUMBER LOOKS GREAT!!!
Interest cost is within
control, company
growing not because of
debt but equity
dilution.
Share Capital has
increased from 7Cr to
9.8Cr (from 70 Lakhs to
98 Lakhs Shares of
FV=10)
Company has 15Cr in
Cash Reserve + Share
Capital is 9.8Cr;
excluding debt company
has Cash Asset worth
Rs 24Cr (approx).
Company with Mcap of
70Cr having 24Cr in
cash, means you are
getting it at 34%
discount.
Astronomic price earnings ratios rarely last for long, as they thrive on excessive hope
and for that reason the most has to be made of them while they persist
Q1 FY09 RESULT – SALES 132%; PROFIT 72%.
It’s human nature to find patterns where there are none and to find skill where luck is
a more likely explanation
Latest significant announcement
by the company & its impact?
Massive expansion
planned, equity dilution
expected.
NEWS 2 USE - DATE: 6TH SEPTEMBER 2008
4 years in a row – Revenue and Profits grow over 100%.
Camson’s revenue grew by an astronomical 139%, during the year ended March
31,2008 to Rs.41.96 crores, from Rs.17.58 crores, during the year ended March 31,
2007. The profits registered a robust growth of 130%, at Rs.7.79 crores from Rs.3.38
crores, as at the end of the corresponding period, for the previous year.
Company to go ahead with its expansion plans and forward integration efforts.
Company to continue its pioneering pursuits to launch trend setter products for
production of safe food.
90 % of the people in the stock market, professionals and amateurs alike, simply
haven’t done enough homework
NEWS 2 USE - DATE: 20TH JUNE 2008
Eco- friendly Investing
“A long talk with the technocrat CEO Dhirendra Kumar followed by a visit to its R&D
centre convinced me that this company was nurturing a business where the
opportunity space was big enough for Camson to attempt doubling revenues (and
profits) every year for perhaps a decade. A parallel presence in hybrid seeds gives
Camson critical mass in distribution. I know that this is the kind of stuff that the
world's farmers are thirsting for, and if Camson does not do it, someone else will.
Right now, it's the only listed company in India that seems to be getting a grip on this
difficult (but promising) business.
- Dipen Sheth, Head of Research, Wealth Management Advisory Services
I have probably purchased fifty ‘hot tips’ in my career, maybe even more. When I put
them all together, I know I am a net loser.
NEWS 2 USE - DATE: 4TH FEB 2008.
1. Camson Bio Technologies Ltd has announced that the Company is wholly integrated
agribiotech Company to provide the complete solutions in the field of agriculture. It
is active in the areas of Hybrid seeds, bio- fertilizers and bio-pesticides.
2. Camson visualizes a healthy and disease free society by providing safe food. Camson
has recently been recognized as one of the fastest growing technology Companies in
the ‘Technology fast 50 India 2007’ conducted by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, Asia
Pacific.
3. The Company has successfully launched 32 products in the Indian market within
last seven years. All these products have been received enthusiastically by the
consumers. To meet the growing demand the Company has established its own
godowns and offices at various strategic locations through out India.
The problem with the person who thinks he’s a long-term investor and impervious to
short-term gyrations is that the emotion of fear and pain will eventually make him
sell badly.
Its always the price at which you
buy matters?
There is strong
support around
Rs60 and fall
below this price
should be
considered as
bargain prices!!!
SHARE PRICE MOVEMENT : JAN’08-SEPT’08
Re-listing on Feb 8th 2008 at BSE
Camson Bio Technologies, a leader in hybrid seeds, bio- fertilizers and bio-pesticides,
got listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange on 8th Feb’08. Till now it had been listed on
the regional stock exchanges.
Camson Bio Technologies resume trading at the base price of Rs 153.
In Feb’08 it got listed @ BSE with trading price of Rs 150-180, its share prices fell
down due to global sell off and formed bottom around Rs 60 during Mar’08.
The function of the press in society is to inform, but its role in society is to make
money.
Latest Bulk/Block deals - Buy/Sell
reported in Camson Bio Tech &
hidden meanings behind this.
Promoters are
promptly
accumulating
share from open
market!!!
MAY’08 TRANSACTIONS…
Sell - Pivotal Securities Pvt Ltd sold 2.46% stake in the Open market during Feb 07,
2008 to May 13, 2008. Its holdings reduced from 6.89% to 4.43%.
Buy - Sunidhi Securities & Finance Ltd bought 0.03% stake from open market
during May 09, 2008 & May 13, 2008.
Bear Market-A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no
jewelry and the husband get no sex.
Is there any risk associated with
investment in this company?
Personal Reason
OR
Market Reason?
WHEN IS THE BEST TIME TO SELL A STOCK?
Personal reasons : It depends on person to person.
Risk Tolerance Reached
You bought a company that looked like a steady growing concern, but instead it has turned out to be a roller coaster
ride. For whatever reason, this stock is just too volatile for your nerves. Dump this firecracker and replace it with a
stock that will let you sleep at night.
“ A stock broker is one who invests other people’s money until its
WHEN IS THE BEST TIME TO SELL A STOCK?
Market reasons : Time to sell?
The Stock Drops by x%
If you buy a stock as a trader, rather than an investor, you may set an arbitrary floor for the stock. When the stock
falls to this floor, you sell. Many traders set that floor in the 6% – 8% range, depending on the volatility of the stock.
They may not be happy about a small loss, but they make sure it doesn’t become a big loss.
“ Average investors who try to do a lot of trading will only make their
brokers rich.”
WHEN IS THE BEST TIME TO SELL CAMSON BIO
TECH?
Market reasons : Time to sell Camson Bio?
The Stock Drops
Camson is a company one MUST keep on accumulating more and more if its
share price falls below Rs50 per share.
You MUST not sell due to fall in the share price. NEVER, NEVER, NEVER.
The Company Flounders
Testimony of the promoters can be judge by company performance, this is a
company growing 100% from last 4 years, in case if its growth rate falls below 50%
or less for two consecutive quarters, take this as alert sign and get back to us, we
would provide best act.
Don’t worry about equity dilution, any company growing at 100% rate is most
likely to dilute equity to raise funds or take debt.
When a Stock is Over Valued
This stock should multiply at most 2-3 times per year, in case if you find it going
up say 5-6 times in a year itself, we would suggest better sell it partly and acquire
after it cools down.
At any PE > 30, you must sell this stock and wait for PE around 10-12 to
accumulate again.
Rebalancing Your Portfolio
Camson can definitely occupy 10% of your portfolio, due to capital appreciation if
it occupies portfolio 25-30%, better offload it partly.
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