The Origin and Growth of Urbanization in the World Author(s): Kingsley Davis Reviewed work(s): Source: American Journal

of Sociology, Vol. 60, No. 5, World Urbanism (Mar., 1955), pp. 429437 Published by: The University of Chicago Press Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2772530 . Accessed: 21/01/2012 19:41
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THE ORIGIN AND GROWTH OF URBANIZATION IN THE WORLD

KINGSLEY DAVIS ABSTRACT Although therewerea fewcitiesas earlyas 4000 B.C., the citiesofthe ancientworldweregenerally small and had to be supported muchlargerruralpopulations."Urbanizedsocieties," whicha highproportion by in of the populationlives in cities,developed only in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The processof urbanization movedrapidlyin the entire has worldsince 1800,and thepeak is notyetin sight.A diminution of the rate of urbanization the older industrial in countries beingcompensatedforby an increasein the is rate in the underdeveloped areas.

Urbanphenomena attract it sociological at- ertheless, can be said that our informatentionprimarily fourreasons. First, tion,both statistical for and nonstatistical, is suchphenomena relatively are in recent hu- muchbettertodaythanwhenAdna Weber man history.Compared to most other wrote his classic treatiseon comparative aspectsof society-e.g.,language, religion, urbanization the turn thepresent of at censtratification,thefamily-cities or appeared tury.' onlyyesterday, urbanization, and meaning THE RISE OF EARLY URBAN CENTERS thata sizableproportion thepopulation of livesin cities, developed has onlyin thelast Because the archeologicalevidence is few moments man's existence. of Second, fragmentary, role of citiesin antiquity the urbanism a represents revolutionary change has often in beenexaggerated. Archeologists in the wholepatternof social life.Itselfa particular inclined call anysettlement are to of product basiceconomic technological a "city"which and had a fewstreets a puband developments, tends in turn,once it lic building two.Yet there surely it or is some comesintobeing,to affect everyaspectof point in not mistaking townfora city. a existence.It exercisesits pervasiveinflu- Moreover, whatis important notonlythe is ence not only within the urban milieu appearanceofa fewtowns citiesbut also or strictly defined also in theruralhinter- their but of place in thetotalsociety which they land. The thirdsource of sociologicalin- werea part.Thus,eventhough particular in terestin citiesis the fact that,onceestab- regionsaround the Mediterranean and in lished, theytendto be centers powerand southern western of and Asia manytownsand influence no a fewcitiesaroseprior theChristian throughout wholesociety, the to Era, matter howagricultural rural maybe. therewere severelimitations and it both on the Finally,the processof urbanization still size thatsuchcitiescouldreachand on the is occurring; manyof theproblems associated proportion the total population that of withit are unsolved;and, consequently, couldlivein them. its future direction potentialities stilla and are Speakinggenerally, can agree with one of matter uncertainty. paperexamines the dominant This viewthatthediverse technothe first lastpoints:theorigin, and growth, logical innovationsconstituting Neolithic and present rateofprogress urbanization culture of of werenecessary the existence for in the world. Sincegood statistics urban settled communities.2 one should not on Yet concentration not existeven today for do 1 Adna F. Weber, The Growth Cities in the substantial of partsof the world,and hardly Century (New York: Columbia Univerexistforany part during mostof the time Nineteenth 1899). since citieshave been in existence, are sityPress, we 2V. Gordon Childe, Man Makes Himself (rev. forced relyon whatever to credible evidence can be foundand so can reachonlybroad ed.; London: Watts, 1941), chaps. v-vi; What Happened in History (London and New York: conclusions concerning early periods and Penguin Books, 1946 [firstprintedin 1942]), onlyapproximations recenttimes.Nev- chans.iii-iv. for 429

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inferthat these innovations, on whichbegan goods did not dependon their presence some 8,000-10,000years ago, were suf- the land as such. They could thus realize ficient giveriseto townsas distinct to from the advantagesof townliving,whichgave poweroverthecultivators. villages.Even though Neolithic the popula- themadditional tionwas moredensely smalland hard settled thanthepuredoubtless The first cities, ly hunting food-gathering or towns, seemto have appeoples,it was to distinguish from places somenevertheless chiefly engagedin an occupa- peared in the most favorable 6000 and 5000 B.c. Fromthat tion-agriculture-which requiresa large timebetween amountof land per person.The Neolithic timeon,it can be assumedthatsomeofthe whichmade largersettlements population density was therefore not a inventions matterof townconcentration rather possibleweredue to townsand citiesthembut a matterof tinyvillagesscatteredover the selves-viz., writing and accountancy, of land. bronze,the beginnings science,a solar By bureaucracy. 3000B.C., when What had to be added to the Neolithic calendar, an wereall exercising incomplexto make possiblethe first towns? theseinnovations and India, in Between6000 and 4000 B.C. certaininven- fluence Egypt,Mesopotamia, whatmay be called tions-such as the ox-drawnplow and therewerein existence wheeledcart,the sailboat,metallurgy, irri- "true" cities.Afterthat thereappears to a some2,000years, lullduring gation, and thedomestication newplants havebeen,for of -facilitated,whentakentogether, more which the most importantinnovations, a intensive and more productive of the towardthe end of the period,werealphause Neolithicelementsthemselves. When this betic writingand the smeltingof iron. the cities in the regionswhere was enriched technology utilizedin certain Curiously, wentinto eventually unusualregions whereclimate,soil, water, citylifehad originated and topography weremostfavorable (broad eclipse,and it was not untilGreco-Roman in made possible, river valleyswith alluvialsoilnotexhausted timesthatnewprinciples a existence. gainin city by successive cropping, witha dryclimate newregions, marked culsubsequent thatminimized leaching, soil of The fact that the greatest withplenty did turaldevelopments not occurprimarily sunshine, and with sediment-containing cities arose water irrigation theriver for from the in the regionswherethe first itself), result a sufficiently was productive economy suggeststhat cities are not always and a of to make possiblethesine qua nonof urban everywhere stimulant economicand in the existence, concentration one place of social advance. Childeadmitsthat,ifanyeffect the citieshad a stultifying thing, first ownfood. people whodo not growtheir on culturalprogress,3 perhapsto the due But a productive neceseconomy, though and insulation excessive power sary,was not sufficient: productivity unproductive high per acre does notnecessarily meanhighper of the urbanelite. There is no doubt that of traditionalism the a capita productivity. Instead ofproducing the religio-magical earlycitieswas profound. surplusfor town dwellers, the cultivators in Why was thereso littleurbanization on at can, theoretically least, multiply the land until they end up producingjust ancienttimes,and why did it proceedso The rise of slowlyfromthat point? The sites of the enoughto sustainthemselves. showthatthey in townsand citiestherefore required, ad- earliest"cities" themselves The walls of ancient ditionto highly favorable con- were small affairs. agricultural an for embraced area of in Babylon, example, ditions,a formof social organization and "Ur, 3.2 whichcertainstratacould appropriate for very roughly square miles,4 themselves oftheproduce part grown the by p. 3Man Makes Himself, 227. and cultivators. Such strata-religious gov4 Deduced fromdata given in MargueriteRutand traders, artisans-could ten, Babylone (Paris: Presses Universitairesde erning officials, live in towns, because their power over France, 1948), p. 34.

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in and occu- general improvement agriculturebe withits canals,harbors, temples, of The staticcharacter agriculture pied some 220 acres; thewallsof Erechen- achieved. was generally fostered compass an area of just on two square and of the economy that the famousUr perhaps by the insulationof the religiomiles."5 This suggests artsand officials from practical the have boastedmorethan5,000 political couldhardly the and Erech hardlymore than thereduction thepeasantto virtually of inhabitants 25,000. The mounds of Mohenjo-daroin statusofa beastofburden. The technology as and Harappa in oftransport as labor-intensive thatof was Sind covera square mile,6 The only means of conveying thePunjab had a walledarea visiblein 1853 agriculture. was of These were bulkygoods formass consumption by witha perimeter 2' miles.7 inhabit- boat, and, though "cities" of 5,000-15,000 evidently sails had been invented, centers the the sailboat was so inefficient rowing for that ants,yettheywerethechief with solid its The entireIndus region,an area nearly two- was stillnecessary. oxcart, about wheelsand rigidly attachedaxle, the pack thirds sizeofTexas. Less is known the were the earliestEgyptiancities,fortheywere animal,and thehumanburden-bearer the means of transport, builtwithmud bricksand have long since all short-distance disappearedbeneaththe alluvial soil. Tell only exceptionbeing the camel caravan. was largetransport reserved el 'Amarna, the temporary capital built Long-distance muchlater,about 1400 B.C., perhapsheld ly forgoodswhich had highvalue and small like something 40,000people. The wall of bulk-i.e., goodsfortheelite-whichcould an The a Hotep-Sanusert, earlier capital built notmaintain largeurbanpopulation. limited about 1900 B.C. on the Fayum, measured size of theearlycitieswas therefore and and other 350 by 400 meters8 inclosedan area of by the amountof food, fibers, of one-twentieth a square bulky thatcouldbe obtained approximately materials from as theimmediate of hinterland labor-intensive by mile.Thebes,at theheight itssplendor the capital of Egypt about 1600, was de- methods, a severe limitationwhich the a writers having circum- Greekcitiesof a laterperiod,smallas they as scribed Greek by it remained, of had ference 14 miles.By a liberalestimate nevertheless to escapebefore full 225,000inhabitants. theycouldattaintheir size. may have contained as To the questionswhy even the largest There werepoliticallimitations well. of and to citiesprior 1000B.C. weresmallby mod- The difficulty communication transof local ernstandards, eventhesmalloneswere portand the existence multifarious why of made theformation large of few, relatively and whythedegree urban- tribalcultures izationeven in the most advancedregions national units The virtually impossible. first the wasvery seemsas follows: urban-centered unitswere city-states, and slight, answer static,and whenso-called was Agriculture so cumbersome, wereformed, in as "empires" that and labor-intensive it took many cultiva- Egypt,in theSumerian region, laterin tors to supportone man in the city. The Assyria, was leftto muchlocal autonomy in- the subordinated ox-drawn plow,the woodenplowshare, areas, and the constant and dangerofrevoltprevented extension undation stonehoes,sickles, of irrigation, the of to of axes wereinstruments production, be thehinterlands thecitiesveryfaror very of ones. Not untilironcame effectively. is symptomatic the weakIt sure,but clumsy intouse inAsia Minorabout 1300B.C. could ness of the earlycitiesthat theywereconconstantly threatenedand frequently p. 6 Childe,WhatHappened in History, 87. townsbut querednot onlyby neighboring India (Harmonds- also by nonurban 6Stuart Piggott, Prehistoric Each wave of barbarians. worth:PenguinBooks, 1950), p. 165. the barbarians tendedto rebuild urbancenp. 7Childe, What Happened in History, 118. and tersand to becomeagricultural sedenin overwhelmed onlyto be eventually 8 Pierre Montet, La Vie quotidienne en Egypte tary, turn newinvaders. factors Other limiting by (Paris: Hachette, 1946), p. 16.

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and tradeto bring slaves,goods,food, medicine(which force werethe lack of scientific of deadly),thefixity the and cultureto the imperialcapital, they made urbanliving minimized rural- wereable to createin Rome (withthepospeasanton theland (which of the urbanmigration), absenceoflarge-scale sibleexception Constantinople somecen(whichwould have derived turieslater) thelargestcitythatwas to be manufacturing more advantagefromurban concentration known theworld in untiltheriseofLondon con- in the nineteenth the thandid handicraft), bureaucratic century. Yet, despitethe of free stifled trade factthatRomeand Constantinople cameto trol thepeasantry (which and the traditionalism hold populations severalhundred in the hinterland), of thouand religiosity all classes (whichham- sand, theywerenot able to resistconquest of and advance). by farless urbanized peredtechnological economic outsiders. The eclipse explain why we find, of citiesin Europe was striking. The limitations Commerce adequate evidence, declined thebarestminimum; when the sites furnish to eachlocale that the earliestcities were small affairs, becameisolated and virtually self-sufficient; usually no more than towns.Whetherin the social systemcongealedinto a heredithe new or in the old world, even the tarysystem.9 Whenfinally townsand cities have exceeded began to revive,they were small, as the biggest places couldscarcely of and 200,000inhabitants, the proportion following estimates suggest: Florence (1338), the total populationlivingin themmust 90,000; Venice (1422), 190,000; Antwerp have been not more than 1 or 2 per cent. (sixteenth century), 200,000; London musthave been re- (1377),30,000;10 Nuremberg (1450),20,165; From 50 to 90 farmers one Frankfort quiredto support man in a city. (1440),8,719." Yet it was precisely western in Europe, SUBSEQUENT CITY DEVELOPMENT wherecitiesand urbanization reached had was to escape its early a nadir duringthe Dark Ages, that the If urbanization it limitations, had to do so in a newregion, limitations that had characterizedthe to and new ancientworldwerefinally be overcome. a regionmoreopen to innovation The cities of Mesopotamia, India, and As conceptions. it turnedout, the region and Rome,had all urbandevelop- Egypt,ofPersia,Greece, thatsaw a laterand greater thatwas primarily the Greco-Roman been tiedto an economy north, mentwas farther where handicraft playedat best worldof Europe,flourishing approximately agricultural, a secondary and where citywas still role the 600 the during periodfrom B.C. to 400 A.D. Iron toolsand weapons, writing, attemptingto supplementits economic alphabetic to strength, comimprovedsailboats, cheap coinage, more weaknesswith military ratherthan to buy it systematic coloni- mand its sustenance institutions, democratic In Europe,starting the at zation-all tended to increaseproduction, honestly. western zero point, the development cities not of stimulatetrade,and expand the effective political unit. Towns and cities became only reached the stage that the ancient the morenumerous, degreeof urbanization world had achieved but kept goingafter A greater. fewcitiesreacheda substantial that.It keptgoingon thebasis of improveand transport, the at size. Athens, itspeak in thefifth century ments in agriculture of of a 120,- opening newlandsand new traderoutes, B.C., achieved population between 9Henri Pirenne, Medieval Cities (Princeton: 000 and 180,000. Syracuse and Carthage PrincetonUniversity Press, 1939), pp. 84-85. were perhapslarger. 10Pierre Clerget,"Urbanism: A Historic, Geoof The full potentialities the ancient a worldto support largecitywererealized graphic,and Economic Study," Annual Reportof for 1912 their abil- the SmithsonianInstitutionOffice, (Washington, onlywiththeRomans.Through D.C.: Government Printing 1913), p. 656. and an organize, govern emityto conquer, 11Henri Pirenne, Economic and Social History Italian hinter- of Medieval Europe (London: Routledge & Kegan pire,to put the immediate land to frutiful cultivation,to use both Paul, 1936), p. 172.

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England. In 1801, alactivi- urbanizedcountry, and, above all, therisein productive Londonhad alreadyreachednearly in and though ty,first highly organized handicraft in new of the millionmark (865,000),England and eventually a revolutionary form run production-thefactory by machinery Wales had less than 10 per cent of their in or thus population citiesof 100,000 more.By and fossil fuel. The transformation was the 1901no less than35 percentofthepopulaachievedin thenineteenth century trueurbanrevolution, it meantnotonly tion of England and Wales was livingin for the riseof a fewscattered townsand cities citiesof 100,000or more,and 58 per cent but the appearance of genuineurbaniza- was livingin citiesof 20,000or more. By had risen to portion 1951 these two proportions tion,in the sensethata substantial of thepopulation lived in townsand cities. 38.4 and 69.3 per cent,respectively. Britain was in thevan ofurbandevelopTHE WORLD TREND FROM 1800 TO 195012 ment. A degreeof urbanization equal to Urbanizationhas, in fact, gone ahead that she had attained in 1801 was not far much fasterand reached proportions and a half greaterduring last century the TABLE 1 thanat any previous timein worldhistory. PERCENTAGE OF WORLD'S POPULAin tradedurThe tremendous growth world TION LIVING IN CITIES ingthisperiodhas enabledtheurbanpopuan lationto draw its sustenance from ever Cities of Cities of wider area. Indeed,it can truly said that be 100,000 20,000 or More or More thehinterland today'scitiesis theentire of world. Contemporary Britain, Holland,and 1800 2.4 1.7 ...... Japan, for example, could not maintain 4.3 2.3 1850....... 9.2 5.5 1900 ...... theirurban populationsolely from their 13.1 20.9 1950 ...... own territory. of rural inThe number habitantsrequiredto maintainone urban inhabitant stillgreat-greaterthan one achievedby any othercountry is untilafter ratio 1850.Thereafter British would imaginefromthe rural-urban rate of urbanthe within each of the highlyurbanizedcoun- ization began slowly to decline, whereas tries. The reasonis thatmuchofagriculture thatofmostothercountries at continued a and high aroundtheworld stilltechnologically is availabledata and level.By assembling Yet can backward. there be no preparing economically wheredata werelackestimates for countries ing,we have arrived figures urbanizadoubtthat,whether particular at on or forthe entireglobe, the ratio of urban tionin theworld a whole, with beginning as to food has 1800, the earliestdate forwhichanything dwellers thosewho growtheir risenremarkably. This is shown thefact like a reasonable by can estimate be obtained. in thattheproportion peopleliving cities The percentage the world'spopulation of of in 1950 is higherthan that foundin any found in in living citiesis as shown Table 1. particular country prior to moderntimes It can be seen that the proportion has and manytimeshigher than thatformerly tendedto do a bit betterthandoubleitself the characterizing earthas a whole. and each half-century that by 1950 the in The rapidityof urbanization recent worldas a wholewas considerably moreurtimescan be seen by lookingat the most banizedthanBritain was in 1800.As everyhas theearth'stotalpopulation 12The writeracknowledges with pleasure the one knows, at rapidratesince1800, collaborationof Mrs. Hilda Hertz Golden in the grown an extremely statisticalwork on which this and succeedingsec- reaching billion 2.4 by 1950.But theurban tionsare based. Such workhas been done as partofa In muchfaster. 1800 has population grown programof comparativeurban research continuing therewereabout 15.6 million people living in the populationdivisionof the Bureau of Applied in citiesof 100,000 more.By 1950it was or Social Research, Columbia University.

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timesthe fore, morethan twenty morethana third thepopulation of 313.7 million, of livesin citiesof the 100,000 earlierfigure.Much of this increase has a country class migration, (38.4 per cent in England and Wales in rural-urban comefrom obviously in can be described althe as clearly mostmassivemigration mod- 1951), the country most completely urbanized (81 per cent erntimes. less as In 1800 therewereapparently than beingdesignated "urban" in theEnglish or 50 citieswith100,000 moreinhabitants. case in 1951).We thushave todaywhatcan in This was less thanthenumber themillion be called "urbanizedsocieties,"nationsin the of class today and less than the numberof which greatmajority inhabitants live foundin many in cities.The prospect that,as timegoes citiescurrently is 100,000-plus and greater By singlecountries. 1950 therewere close on, a greater proportion huof willbe members suchsocieties. of to 900 cities of 100,000 or more people, manity and of The questionmay be raised as to how is which morethanthenumber towns such an extreme degreeof worldurbanizacitiesof 5,000or morein 1800. tionwillprovepossible.Who willgrowthe TABLE 2 foodand fibers for necessary the enormous urbanpopulation? The answeris thatagriPERCENTAGEOF WORLD'SPOPULATION culture mayproveto be an archaicmodeof LIVING IN CITIES, BY REGIONS production. one Already, ofthegreat factors rise giving to urbanization therather is late In Cities of In Cities of and as yetveryincomplete industrialization 20,000 Plus 100,000 Plus of agriculture. farming As becomesincreas13 21 World.................. inglymechanizedand rationalized, fewer 41 47 Oceania................. peopleare neededon theland. On theaverNorthAmerica(Canada 29 42 and U.S.A.)... age,themoreurbanized country, lower a the 21 35 Europe (exceptU.S.S.R.) is itsrural density.'3 in addition indusIf, to 18 31 U.S.S.R ................. 18 26 ........... South America trialized food cometo agriculture, and fiber Middle Americaand Caribbe increasingly produced manufacturing by 12 21 bean.................. processesusing materialsthat utilize the 8 . 13 Asia (except U.S.S.R.) .. 5 9 Africa ................ .. sun'senergy moreefficiently plantsdo, than thereis no technological reasonwhynearly all ofmankind couldnotliveinconurbations of is As yetthere no indication a slacken- oflargesize. in ingof therateofurbanization theworld rate shouldcon- THE REGIONAL PATTERN OF URBANIZATION as a whole.If thepresent of peomorethana fourth theearth's tinue, The highestlevels of urbanization are or in ple willbe living citiesof 100,000 more foundtoday in northwestern Europe and in theyear2000,and morethanhalfin the in thosenewregions where northwest Euroyear2050.For placesof20,000or more,the peanshavesettled extended and their indusat proportions the two dates would be trialcivilization. figures as shown The are in like something 45 per centand 90 per cent. Table 2.'4 Oceania is themosturbanized of such figures provetoo low or too Whether 13See Kingsley suggestthat the banization and theDavis and Hilda Hertz, "Urhigh, they nevertheless Development of Pre-industrial human species is movingrapidly in the Areas," EconomicDevelopment CulturalChange, and urban III (October, 1954), 6-26. See also the writer's directionof an almost exclusively of We existence. have used the proportion paper, "Population and the Further Spread of in thepopulation citiesof 20,000and 100,- Industrial Society," Proceedingsof the American Society, XCV (February,1951), 10-13. indexof differ- Philosophical 000 or moreas a convenient 14From KingsleyDavis and Hilda Hertz, "The of in encesand changes degree urbanization. World Distributionof Urbanization," Bulletin of Places of less than 20,000also fita demo- the International Statistical Institute, XXXIII, of definition "urban."When,there- Part IV, 230. graphic

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becauseAustralia 1930. Asia, for example,had only 22 per majorregions, theworld's in compo- centof the world'scitypopulation 1900 and New Zealand are its principal had if America next, it is defined but 34 percentofit in 1950,and Africa is North nents. only Canada and the United 1.5 per centin 1900but 3.2 per centat the as including States. The regions least urbanized are laterdate. European by With respectto urbanization, then,the thoseleast affected northwest and gap between industrial thepreindusthe namely, Asia and Africa. culture, to The for The figures world regionsare less trialnationsis beginning diminish. valuable forpurposesof analysisthan are less-developedparts of the world will it The latter eventually, seems,beginin theirturnto those for individualcountries. point. towarda saturation has showclearlythat urbanization tended move gradually rises,it of economic As the degreeof urbanization to reachitshighest pointwherever for has been greatest-that is, course becomesimpossible the rate of productivity The growth the urban in and is wheretheeconomy industrialized ra- gain to continue. is This explainswhyurbanization proportion made possibleby the movetionalized. rural areasto thecities. is so closely associated with northwest mentofpeoplefrom becomesa progresand their were As theruralpopulation sincethey culture, Europeans of revolu- sivelysmallerpercentage the total, the for responsible theindustrial mainly popucan mosturbanized countries citiesno longer drawon a noncity tion.Ofthefifteen can all in the world, but one, Japan,are Euro- lationof any size. Yet in no country it is and derivethat be said that the processof urbanization pean in culture, all but four there havebeenshort Although or the partof yetfinished. from northwest central culture periods in recent times in England, the Europe. in The rate of urbanization the older United States, and Japan when the city at slower rate increased a slightly industrialcountries,however,is slowing population 1870to than the rural,theseweremereinterludes down.Duringthetwenty yearsfrom of but ever slowerprogress in proportion large cities in the ongoing 1890 Germany's morethandoubled;it nearlydoubledagain urbanconcentration. from1890 to 1910; but from1910 to 1940 THE TENDENCY TOWARD METROPOLITAN was theincrease only36 percent.In Sweden EXPANSION 1920. after thegainsloweddownnoticeably In England and Wales the most rapid urin of The continuance urbanization the 1811and 1851. world does not mean the persistence between banization occurred of the rate something to Contrary popularbelief, fastest thatremains same in detail. the between1861 A cityof a million in theUnitedStatesoccurred inhabitants todayis not there the sort of place that a city of the same and 1891. Since,as we noted earlier, of has been no slowing-down urbanization number was in 1900 or in 1850. Moreover, in theworldas a whole,it mustbe that,as withtheemergence giantcitiesoffiveto of the more establishedindustrialcountries fifteen new has been million,something countries added. Such cities are creaturesof the have slackened, less-developed the a have exhibited fasterrate. In fact,such twentieth Theirsheer quantitative century. evidenceas we have forunderde- difference historical means a qualitative change as rates well. velopedareasseemsto showthattheir have been risingin recent of urbanization One of themostnoticeable developments decades. This has been the case in Egypt, is theeverstronger of tendency citiesto exafter1920thanbe- pand outward-a development wheretherateis higher alreadyobthe urbanization served in the nineteenth in fore; India,where fastest century.Since since 1941; in Mexico, where 1861,thefirst has occurred can date whenthecomparison London the speed-upbegan in 1921; and in Greece, be made,theOuterRingofGreater thanLondon morerapidly wherethe fastestperiodran from1900 to has beengrowing

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itself. Frenchwriters priorto 1900pointed areas, fortheircontinued Thompgrowth. out the dispersive tendency,"5 did Adna son showed that,the greaterthe distance as in of Weber 1899.16 Thereis no doubt, however, fromthe center thecity,the fasterthe that theprocessof metropolitan dispersion rate ofgrowth.'8 has increased withtime.This factis shown The same forceswhichhave made expossiblehave also made for the United States by comparingthe treme urbanization percentage gainsin population made by the metropolitan dispersion possible,and the has contributed further to central cities with those made by their dispersion itself satellite areas in forty-four metropolitan urbanization making largeconurbations by districtsfor which Thompson could get moreefficient moreendurable. outand The of comparabledata goingback to 1900. The wardmovement urbanresidences, urof ban services commercial and establishments, TABLE 3 by and oflightindustry-allfacilitated imin and comPERCENTAGE INCREASE IN POPULAprovements motor transport 44 METROPOLITAN TION IN made it possibleforhuge munications-has DISTRICTS IN THE UNITED without agglomerations keep on growing to STATES, 1900-1940 inof the inconveniences proportionate creases in density. In many ways the Rest of Central metropolisof three million today is an Cities Districts easier place to live and workin than the city of five hundredthousandyesterday. 38.2 1900-1910 33.6 23.4 31.3 1910-20. Grantedthat the economicadvantagesof
1920-30..... 1930-40..... 20.5 4.2 48.7 13.0

TABLE 4
INCREASE PERCENTAGEPOPULATION OUTSIDE CENTRAL CITIES IN 44 METROPOLITANDISTRICTS

rest metropolitan could which comparability be established.

The differgainsare as shownin Table 3.17 untilin 193040 thepopulaence increases, the more tionoutside central cityis growing Urban Rural than threetimesas fastas that insidethe Parts Parts centralcity. Furthermore, Thompsonhas 43.2 1900-1910. 35.9 area shown that withinthe metropolitan 34.5 1910-20.... 30.2 citiesit was the "rural" outside central the 68.1 1920-30.... 40.6 7.3 28.1 1930-40..... parts whichgained fasterthan the urban parts, as the percentage increases per decade shownin Table 4, indicate.Clearly, urbanconcentration continue still and still themetropolitan districts wereincreasingly pushpopulations the direction urbanin of on dependent the areas outsidethe central ization, the effectof metropolitandiscities, and especially upon the sparsely persionis thusto minimize the disadvanof settled parts at the periphery these tagesof thiscontinued urbangrowth. The new typeof metropolitan expansion 1' Paul Meuriot, Des agglomerations urbainesdans l'Europe contemporaine (Paris: B6lin Freres,1898), occurring the highly in industrial countries on of pp. 249-78.Literature themovement indus- is not withoutits repercussions lessin of tryand peopleto theperiphery citiesis cited, developedlands as well.Most of the rapid of discussion the subjectgiven, and a theoretical in now occurring Africaand in Ren6 Maunier,L'Origineet la fonction &conomique urbanization & is desvilles (Paris:Giard Bri&re, 1910), 231-314. Asia,forexample, affected direct pp. conby 16 Op. cit., pp. 458-75. nationsand by a contact withindustrial 17 standards. The S. Warren Thompson, Growth Metro- comitantrise in consumption of may not be politan Districts in the United States, 1900-1940 Although privateautomobiles D.C.: Government Office, available to the urbanmasses,bicycles (Washington, Printing and is 1948),p. 5. The picture muchthesameforthe bussesgenerally Hence Brazzaville and are. districts decadesin for of the
18 Ibid., p.9.

THE ORIGIN AND GROWTHOF URBANIZATIONIN THE WORLD Abidjan,Takoradi and Nairobi,Jamshedpur and New Delhi, Ankaraand Colombo, are not evolvingin the same manneras did the citiesof the eighteenth and nineTheir ecologicalpattern, teenthcenturies. their technological base, their economic activity, reflect twentieth all the century, no matterhow primitive backward their or hinterlands be. Thus thefactthattheir may in maingrowth occurring thepresent is century notwithout is significance thekind for of citiestheyare turning to be. out

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How utrbanized world the willeventually become is an unanswerable question.As stated earlier,thereis no apparentreason whyit shouldnot becomeas urbanized as the mosturbancountries today-withperhaps 85-90percentofthepopulation living in cities and townsof 5,000 or more and practicing urban occupations. Our present in degreeof urbanization advanced countriesis stillso new that we have no clear idea of how such complete worldurbanization would affect human society;but the chancesare that the effects wouldbe proFUTURE TRENDS IN WORLD found. URBANIZATION In visualizing natureand effects the of in howSpeculation concerningthe future of completeurbanization the future, that is urbanization as hazardousas that con- ever,one mustguardagainstassuming cerning otheraspectof humansociety. cities will retain theirpresentform.The any to hugemetropolitan aggreFollowingthe direction moderntrends, tendency form of decentralized however, may concludethat,withthe gates whichare increasingly one continue probably but will industrial revolution, the first for time in willundoubtedly history urbanization beganto reacha stage not go so far as to eliminatethe central altogether, it though may from whichtherewas no return. The cities businessdistrict weakenit. At theperiphery, may it and ofantiquity werevulnerable, thedegree greatly and in ofurbanization reached was so thin many wellbe thatthemetropolis thecountrysocieties to be transitory. as Today virtually side, as the one expands and the other of the worldis moreurbanized shrinks,will merge together,until the everypart than any regionwas in antiquity.Urban- boundariesof one sprawlingconurbation withno interizationis so widespread, mucha part of will touchthoseof another, so purecountryside all. The world's at industrial and civilization, gaining rapid- vening so doublesitself twicein a century, to even with population ly, that any return rurality, at urbanmajor catastrophes, appears unlikely.On becoming the same time highly thecontrary, sinceeverycityis obsolescent ized, and as new sources of energyare of metroto somedegree-moreobsolescent older tapped,thepossibility centrifugal the is enhanced.If of it is-the massive destruction many politangrowth enormously to would probably add eventually to the commuting workcouldbe donewiththe speedofsoundand cheaply, wouldnot one impetus urbangrowth. of mindlivingtwo hundred milesfrom work. The factthattherateofworldurbanizaadvancefrom now any since 1800 Almost technological tion has shown no slackening moreto the centhe suggests thatwe are farfrom endofthis on is likelyto contribute thanto thecentripetal tendency. It process,perhapsnot yet at the peak. Al- trifugal out in mayturn thaturbanization thesense have shown the countries though industrial and the a declinein their be- ofemptying countryside concentratrates,thesecountries, in space willreverse of inghugenumbers little cause theyembraceonlyabout a fourth in of theworld's have notdampened itself-not,however, the direction repopulation, in but turning peopleto thefarm rather that of the worldtrend.The three-fourths huthem moreevenly overtheland coun- ofspreading manitywho live in underdeveloped are tries stillin theearlystagesofan urban- for purposes of residenceand industrial izationthatpromises be morerapidthan work."Rurality"wouldhave disappeared, to earlierin the areas of leavingonlya newkindofurbanexistence. that whichoccurred northwest Europeanculture. COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY