I HC QUC GIA H NI

Trng i hc cng ngh Khoa: in t vin thng Lp: K18- Nhm 1

bi: D on nhu cu thoi c nh Vit Nam

Ging vin: TS. Nguyn Quc Tun Hc Vin: T Vn Bin Nguyn Anh Tun Phm Tin Anh Vn Hong o Vit Hng Trng Vit Li Mnh Dng Nguyn Cng Minh

H Ni, thng 3 nm 2012

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Li m u
Ngy nay vi s pht trin nh v bo ca khoa hc k thut, s bng n ca thng tin cc yu t bt ng xy ra lin tip i vi nn kinh t ca mi quc gia nn vic d bo c cc yu t l rt cn thit i vi cc nh hoch nh chnh sch ca mt quc gia cng nh ca mt ngnh. Ngnh Bu in cng nh cc ngnh khc ca nn kinh t quc dn, tn ti v pht trin mt cch bn vng th cng cn phi c ng li chin lc ng n, m xy dng c chin lc ng n th cng tc d bo gi mt vai tr quan trng. c bit i vi tng cng ty Bu chnh Vin thng Vit nam thc hin ng li i mi v ang pht trin theo hng tr thnh mt tp on kinh t mnh v khng cn l cng ty c quyn kinh doanh trn lnh vc vin thng, cho nn trong tng lai c nhiu cc doanh nghip trong nc v nc ngoi s tham gia vo kinh doanh cc loi hnh dch v ny, nn cng tc d bo l rt cn thit. Nht l i vi cc dch v Vin thng m trong , d bo nhu cu s dng dch v in thoi c nh gi mt vai tr quan trng. Chnh v nhng l do trn m vic nghin cu ti D bo nhu cu s dng thoi c nh Vit Nam l vn rt cn phi quan tm. Ni dung ca ti c chia lm 3 chng chnh sau: Chng I: Mt s khi nim c bn Chng II: Thc trng ca Vin thng Vit Nam Chng III: D bo nhu cu s dng thoi c nh Vit Nam trong tng lai

D on nhu cu thoi Vit Nam

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Chng I
1. nh ngha

Mt s khi nim c bn

I. Cc nh ngha c s v d bo
D bo l tin on c cn c khoa hc, mang tnh cht xc sut v mc , ni dung, cc mi quan h, trng thi, xu hng pht trin ca i tng nghin cu hoc cch thc v thi hn t c cc mc tiu nht nh ra. D bo c p dng trong mt khong thi gian hu hn, khong thi gian ny ph thuc vo mc n nh ca i tng nh hng trong qu trnh pht trin ca n.

2. Phn loi
Qua vic thu thp s liu phc v d bo. Ngi ta c th chia lm 3 dng c bn sau:

2.1 Phng php chuyn gia 2.1.1 nh ngha

Chuyn gia l ngi c chuyn mn su, c kinh nghim rng trong lnh vc nghin cu. H l ngi am hiu su sc v s pht trin trong tng lai ca ngnh .

2.1.2 c im
- Phng php ny l cng c d bo cho vn bao qut rng v phc tp nhiu ch tiu v tnh chuyn mn cao - Da vo cc tc ng ca x hi, s pht trin ca cng ngh. - Phng php phc tp cng phu v phi thc hin c trnh t - Phng php ny dng khi: khng c c s l lun chc chn, thiu s liu thng k, i tng c n nh km

2.2 Phng php ngoi suy 2.2.1 nh ngha

S dng cc phng php thng k, ton phn tch chui s liu thng k tm ra mi lin h bn cht mang tnh quy lut ca yu cu. T a ra d bo cho tng lai

2.2.2 c im
- D bo gn - Khng gii thch c kt qu d bo - Khng tnh n c cc iu kin khc nh hng d bo - Khng tm ra nguyn nhn d bo

D on nhu cu thoi Vit Nam

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2.3 Phng php m hnh ha 2.3.1 nh ngha

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y l phng php phc tp v kh nht, n l s kt hp ca hai phng php trn ngoi suy v chuyn gia. Khi qut ha c ht c tnh ca s liu thng k xc nh c m hnh ton hc

2.3.2 c im
- Phng php ny c tnh l thuyt cao nn c dng d bo mc tng hp. - S dng cn hn ch do i hi cn ngi c trnh cao, phi c h thng d liu y

3. Vai tr, chc nng

D bo c vai tr quan trng trong qu trnh ra quyt nh qun l. - nh gi c thc trng pht trin ca mng khng dy - D bo c cc xu th pht trin v hnh thnh cc hoch nh cho tng lai - Xc nh c chin lc ngn hn v di hn

II. Tiu chun la chn phng php d bo

C 5 tiu chun quan trng chn phng php d bo thch hp vi mt vn c th, l: chnh xc ca d bo Chi ph ca d bo Tnh tng hp v kh nng ca phng php Thi gian d bo C s d liu d bo

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Chng II

Hin trng ca vin thng Vit Nam.

I. Th trng vin thng Vit Nam 1. S phn b in thoi gia cc vng, min ca Vit Nam
Chng ta c th thy r s phn b vic s dng in thoi c nh thnh th v nng thn nh sau:

Thnh th Nng thn khc

Thoi c nh(%) 61% 34% 5%

Di ng(%) 49% 33% 18%

Qua s liu phn b ny ta thy vic s dng thoi di ng gia thnh th v nng thn gn nh tng ng nhau. Cn i vi thoi c nh c s chnh lch ng k khong 10% nhn mt cch trc quan hn v nhu cu s dng thoi c nh trn c nc ta c th quan st biu sau:

Hnh 1: Biu pht trin thu bao in thoi c nh

Chng ta c th nhn thy rng ch trong vng 1 thng ( thng 4 v thng 5) s lng thu bao c nh gim i 1 triu thu bao.

2. S pht trin ca vin thng Vit Nam

Nm 2011 m l nm m kinh t Vit Nam c nhiu ngnh suy thoi v b o thi, Khng ch c ring ngnh kinh t m bn cnh ngnh vin thng cng vy. Vi s st nhp ca EVN vo Viettel v s tr ch ca mt s mng di ng nh S-Fone, Beeline. Qua xu th , th trng vin thng Vit Nam thay i li c cu ca mnh

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Hnh 2: Biu pht trin vin thng Vit Nam

Vi s tng vt s thu bao di ng. Nguyn nhn gy ra s nhy bc v in thoi di ng: in thoi di ng c nhiu u im hn v s tin dng Thit b u cui a dng nhiu tnh nng Cc tin ch media: gii tr, th in t.. Gi thnh ca chng rt l r

Hnh 3: Th trng vin thng Vit Nam

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3. S cnh tranh gia cc nh mng trong h thng vin thng Vit Nam

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C cu thoi c nh ca Vit Nam m ra thm cc nh mng khc ngoi VNPT cn c Viettel, EVN, CMC, FPT..

Hnh 4: Th phn in thoi c nh Vit Nam

C l t khi mng in thoi di ng ra i th chng ta cng thy c s trm lng ca mng in thoi c nh cc nh mng nh Doanh nghip c cp php gn y nht l Cng ty Vin thng Ton Cu (GTel). Trc , VNPT, Viettel, EVN Telecom, CMC Telecom, FPT Telecom, SPT v VTC Telecom c cp php cung cp dch v in thoi hu tuyn. Tuy nhin, nhn vo nhng ng thi ca h, rt d nhn ra rng s quan tm ca doanh nghip ch yu dnh cho dch v in thoi di ng. Chng hn, GTel hin ti ch pht trin mng di ng l Beeline, CMC Telecom th tp trung pht trin dch v h tng mng internet. FPT Telecom cng ch pht trin in thoi c nh nh mt gi tr cng thm cho cc khch hng s dng internet nu c nhu cu, d trc k hoch ca h rt honh trng. Theo nh thng k ca VNPT th mi nm c 60000 thu bao H Ni ngng hot ng. Tnh trng ny cng xy ra tng t vi cc nh mng c nh khc

4. S phn b gia thoi v c nh

Trong nhng nm 2005 tr v trc th thoi c nh c coi l ng hong ca ngnh vin thng. Nhng n nm 2005 th s lng thu bao thoi v c nh cn bng. Sau 5 nm n nm 2010 th s thu bao ny c s chuyn dch ng k. Nm 2010 Di ng: 142 triu C nh: 16,4 triu Nm 2011 Di ng: 116,2 triu C nh: 15,5 triu 2/2012 Di ng: 119 triu C nh: 15,3

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Hnh 5: s thu bao thoi ca nhng nm tr v trc

Hnh 6: s thu bao trn 100 dn II. Nhu cu s dng thoi c nh Vit Nam 1.1 Nng thn
* c im vng:
- S phn b dn c khng ng u, mt dn c thp, c ni thatht v c nhng ni dn c phn b ri rc. - Trnh vn ho, dn tr c nhiu bc pht trin. - Lao ng ch yu l lao ng gin n lm trong lnh vc nng nghip. - Do qu trnh th ho nhanh nn c mt phn dn c vng nng thi chuyn i hnh thc lao ng sn xut. - C mt s vng cn rt ngho nn, thu nhp thp.

D on nhu cu thoi Vit Nam

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- Thin nhin khc nghit.

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- Kt cu h tng nh giao thng, mng li in, nc, thng tin cn rt yu km, cha pht trin.

* Xu hng ca nhu cu s dng dch v in thoi c nh:

Do nhng c im trn nn nhu cu s dng dch v in thoi c nh nhng vng ny pht trin cha mnh, nn trong giai on ti cn phi c chnh sch khuyn khch, thc y h s dng. 1.2 Thnh Th - Nhng vng th pht trin thng l ni c iu kin v t nhin, kinh t x hi thun li hn cc vng khc, mt dn c rt ng, c cu lao ng ch yu l lao ng cng nghip v thng mi, dch v, t l ny chim ti 70% - 80% dn s ca vng th. Dn c ca vng th ch yu l nhng ngi c qua o to c trnh vn ho, dn tr kh cao hn hn cc vng khc. - Cc cng trnh vn ho, gio dc, th thao, gii tr, y t, cc trung tm kinh t chnh tr vn ho ln, cc u mi giao thng quan trng u tp trung th. Mt xy dng cc khu th khng ngng tng ln. - Trnh trang thit b k thut v h thng cc cng trnh kt cu h tng th pht trin cao v hon thin hn nhng ni khc. - Thu nhp ca ngi dn nhng vng th cao, thng gp i so vi thu nhp bnh qun c nc.

* Xu hng ca nhu cu s dng dch v in thoi c nh

Dch v in thoi c nh l dch v l mt trong nhng dch v truyn thng, n xut hin tng i sm so vi cc dch v khc, nht l cc vng th pht trin, trung tm thng mi Cho nn cc vng ny dch v in thoi c nh tr nn ph bin v thng dng i vi tt c mi ngi. Tuy nhin xu hng nhng nm ti nhu cu s dng dch v in thoi c nh c tc pht trin chm li.

1.3 Khu ch xut cng nghip * c im vng

Cc cng trnh KCHT nh vin thng thc s phi l nn tng i trc th hot ng ca nhng khu ny mi c hiu qu. u t cho KCHT khu vc ny c ch trng v u tin c trong KCX, khu CN v ngoi khu phc v cho dn c sinh sng. Thu ht nhiu lao ng c trnh tay ngh cao, qua o to. Hot ng sn xut mang tnh C nhiu cng ty nc ngoi ang hot ng, sn phm ch yu cho xut khu. chuyn mn ho cao , phn cng lao ng v hp tc ho cht ch.

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Thu nhp ca lao ng cao hn hn so vi cc ni khc.

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*Xu hng ca nhu cu s dng dch v in thoi c nh:

Nhu cu s dng dch v in thoi c nh khu vc ny l rt ln mt phn l do cc khu ny mi xut hin, pht trin i thng vo hin i, cng nghip, phn khc l do s i hi rt ln ca cng vic sn xut kinh doanh c trao i tin tc rt nhiu vi nc ngoi. Xu hng nhng nm ti nhu cu s dng dch v in thoi c nh cc khu vc ny vn pht trin rt cao. Do nc ta l nc ang pht trin nn s c rt nhiu khu ch xut khu cng nghip mc ln. Do nhu cu tim nng cc khu vc ny l rt ln.

III.

Cc nhn t nh hng n nhu cu s dng thoi c nh

Dn s Vit Nam hin nay khong 87.6 triu dn. V mi nm dn s Vit Nam tng 1,1% . Nhu cu s dng lin li tng

1. Dn s/ Mt dn s 2. Chuyn dch c cu kinh t

t nc ta ngy cng i mi theo hng cng nghip ha, hin i ha. Nhiu khu ch xut nh my c mc ra, ko theo l s bng pht v nhu cu v thng tin

3. S m ra cc dch v mi
S pht trin ca cc dch v gi tr gia tng, s ra i ca cp quang, truyn hnh bng rng cng c nh hng to ln n in thoi c nh bi v: Ngy ny khai thc trit mng in thoi c nh ngi ta khai thc nhiu dch v trn ng truyn : VoIP, MyTV, ADSL

4. S pht trin ca mng in thoi di ng

Vi c cu dn s tr ha v nhu cu i hi ca con ngi cng tng cao th s tin ch cng c u tin. S ra i ca mng in thoi di ng l mt i th ca mng c nh. Vi s lng thoi di ng ngy cng tng v s lng thu bao cng ngy cng tng Theo thng k ca Tng cc Thng k, thu bao in thoi pht trin mi trong 11 thng ca nm 2011 t 10,4 triu thu bao, gim 10,7% so vi cng k nm 2010. Trong , thu bao c nh qua 11 thng mc 45,5 nghn, cn thu bao di ng l 10,4 triu (nu so vi 9,3 triu thu bao di ng tnh n thng 10/2011 th trong thng 11, c nc tng thm 1,1 triu thu bao). S thu bao in thoi c nc tnh n cui thng 11/2011 c tnh t c 131,7 triu thu bao, gm 15,5 triu thu baoc nh v 116,2 triu thubao di ng.

5. Gi thnh
Vi s bng pht v cng ngh, s chy ua gia cc nh mng nn gi thnh ca in thoi ngy cng r hn v c nhiu chng trnh khuyn mi hn Cc in thoi di ng hin nay khng cao hn bao nhiu so vi in thoi c nh lin tnh (khong 1.700 ng/pht, so vi mc 1.400 ng/pht cc gi lin tnh), nhng li c rt nhiu ng dng km theo, trong khi in thoi c nh ch c chc nng thoi.

D on nhu cu thoi Vit Nam

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* C hi: - Th trng ln vi dn s ng, mt in thoi cn thp. - Nn kinh t t nc tng trng n nh, GDP/u ngi tng u qua cc nm.

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- S pht trin ca dch v Inernet to c hi lm gia tng nhu cu s dng dch v in thoi c nh. *Thch thc: - Vi cng ngh ngy cng pht trin, cc loi hnh dch v thay th khc ra i nh dch v di ng, in thoi qua Internet nh hng n nhu cu s dng in thoi c nh. - S b cnh tranh t mt s nh khai thc c cp php v s trin khai trong thi gian ti. * im mnh: - Mng vin thng bao ph trn ton lnh th. - C uy tn trn th trng trong nc v quc t. - Tnh hnh ti chnh n nh, lnh mnh. - Cc ph ni ht thp. - Cht lng dch v tt. - Chim lnh th trng c kh nng thng mi ho nhanh. - Tip tc m rng th trng hng vo cc khch hng mi. * im yu: mi. Chi ph lp t v cc s dng cn cao so vi thu nhp nhiu vng dn c. H thng tng i cn nhiu chng loi v cha c thay th bi nhng loi c cng ngh

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Chng III

D bo nhu cu s dng thoi c nh Vit Nam

I. La chn phng php d bo

La chn l mt bc khi u kh khn v nu la chn sai th s li rt nhiu hu qu. V vy ng trn mt ci nhn tng qut v vic thu thp s liu v qua phn tch cc yu t: 1. Chuyn dch c cu kinh t 2. Gi thnh thu bao in thoi 3. Gi cc s dng, y l yu t c th coi l tc ng ln ti nhu cu dch v in thoi c nh song t trc n nay n cha c ch trng, khng tun theo qui lut ca th trng m do ngnh vin thng c quyn 4. S pht trin ca khoa hc k thut Da vo vic phn tch s liu v kho st cc thuc tnh. Thi vi m hnh ny th vic la chn phng php ph hp l: D bo bng phng php ngoi suy.

II. Cc bc d bo nhu cu s dng thoi c nh

Bao gm 5 bc sau: Bc 1: Xc nh cc mc tiu d bo Bc u tin ca cng vic d bo l phi xc nh r cc mc tiu d bo. Thng thng cc mc tiu d bo gm nhu cu ca dn c v nhu cu ca cc c quan v cng phi xc nh vng mc tiu d bo l ca tng tnh, ton quc hay l vng tng i. V d bo cho giai on 5 nm, 10 nm hay 15 nm Bc 2: Cc s liu cn thu thp Trong bc ny phi xc nh c yu t no nh hng n cc mc tiu d bo v nhng s liu no nn thu thp. Cc s liu thu thp c phi c phn loi v sp xp theo th t thi gian vic phn tch chng c d dng. Cc s liu lin quan n d bo nhu cu in thoi nh sau: - Nhu cu in thoi, mt in thoi - C cu kinh t ( tc tng trng kinh t) - Dn s - S cc c quan Bc 3: Tip cn v phn tch xu hng nhu cu Xu hng nhu cu c phn tch theo quan im nh sau: Cc gi tr qu kh C cu th trng in thoi

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- Ngun nhu cu - Mt in thoi - Cc c im ca vng nghin cu - So snh vi cc vng khc v cc quc gia khc Bc 4: Nghin cu cc k thut d bo v tnh ton gi tr d bo Cc phng php d bo : - Phng php chuyn gia - Phng php ngoi suy - Phng php m hnh ha - Cc phng phng php khc

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Thng qua cc s liu thu thp c xc nh phng php d bo cho ph hp. Tuy nhin, cho gi tr d bo m bo chnh xc cao hn, iu quan trng l nn chn phng php kh thi nht v chn cc gi tr ti u. Bc 5: Xc nh cc gi tr d bo T vic phn tch bc 3 v da vo cc kt qu d bo sau khi s dng cc k thut d bo, cc gi tr ti u s c quyt nh.

III. Xu hng pht trin ca dch v thoi c nh Vit Nam n nm 20120

C xu hng y nhanh vic thc hin ph cp ho cc dch v vin thng c bit l dch v in thoi c nh, mng li phc v ph rng khp trong c nc m bo phc v cho ngi dn khi c nhu cu. Mt iu na l n nm 20120 Vit Nam vn n nh v cng ngh 2G, 3G v tip tc khai thc cc tnh a phng tin ca mng in thoi di ng. Tuy nhin bn cnh cng khng th thiu i mng in thoi c nh vi cc u im vt tri c ci tin v n cng c khai thc trong lnh vc gii tr bng rng. Theo nh kt qu kho st trn th - T nm 2009 2011 s thu bao gim i mt cch chng mt. c tnh mi nm gim khong 0,33. Vy s thu bao d on n nm 2020 bng ngoi suy l:

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Hnh7: S thu bao c d on n nm 2020

Hnh8 : S thu bao t 2005 2020

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D bo nhu cu l mt khu quan trng cho qu trnh lp v xy dng k hoch, chin lc pht trin, chin lc kinh doanh v quy hoch mng ca bt k mt doanh nghip kinh doanh Vin thng no. Nhng d bo nhu cu l u vo thit yu xy dng cu hnh mng vin thng tng lai, tnh ton k hoch thit b v d ton nhu cu u t. Nh vy d bo nhu cu c hp l mi cho ta mt bng quy hoch, chin lc t c hiu qu ti chnh cng nh hiu qu kinh t ti u nht. Do cn phi phn tch, la chn c kt qu d bo hp l, ti u nht, c c k hoch, chin lc pht trin tt nht, to iu kin cho s pht trin ca dch v in thoi c nh, ngnh vin thng cng nh s pht trin ca t nc. Vi ti D bo nhu cu s dng thoi c nh n Vit Nam ny em mong mun trong qu trnh d bo s thy c s pht trin trong tng lai ca ngnh v c bit l s pht trin ca dch v in thoi c nh c bc i ng hng trong nhng nm sp ti ca qu trnh hi nhp v tch Bu chnh ra khi Vin thng. Mc d ht sc c gng cho vic hon thnh ti ny nhng do kin thc cn hn ch, thi gian thu thp, nghin cu c hn nn khng th trnh khi nhng thiu st nht nh. Em rt mong nhn c s gp ca thy c v nhng ngi quan tm.

Kt lun

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Ti liu tham kho

[1] http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/kinhteso/toancanh/41051 [2] http://dantri.com.vn/c25/s76-505857/giai-cuu-dien-thoai-co-dinh.htm [3] http://vtc.vn/congnghe/557-303001/cong-nghe/mang-dien-thoai-co-dinh-va-bai-toan-can-loigiai.htm [4]http://www.tapchibcvt.gov.vn/News/PrintView.aspx?ID=23854 [5]http://www.viettraining.com.vn/index.edu?Page=News&id=41&ma=31&ct=493&lang=1 [6]http://vietbao.vn/Vi-tinh-Vien-thong/Dien-thoai-co-dinh-se-bien-mat/55153592/219/ [7]http://ictnews.vn/home/Tin-tuc/71/33-nguoi-dan-nong-thon-dung-di-dong/94211/index.ict

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