Climate Change and Global Food and Nutrition Security

Cristina Tirado von der Pahlen, DVM, MS, PhD PHI Center for Public Health and Climate Change

Climate change

Stratospheric ozone depletion

UV exposure

Diverse pathways

Land degradation
Agro-ecosystem Productivity Conflict

Decline in ecosystem services

Water quantity and safety

Altered precipitation

Loss of Biodiversity ecosystem function

Freshwater decline
Adapted from WHO, 2003

Negative Impact Positive Impact

Very High Confidence

Effects on geographic range & incidence of malaria

High Confidence
Undernutrition & consequent disorders Injuries, deaths, disease - Extreme events (heatwaves, floods, droughts, fires, etc) Cardio-respiratory diseases - poor air quality Cold-related deaths

Medium Confidence
Diarrhoeal diseases

Vulnerability of national economies of potential climate change impacts on fisheries (Allison et al 2009)

Vulnerability Integrates exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) under IPCC scenario B2

Most vulnerable countries produce 20% of the Worlds fish exports

Coastal floods-Sea Level rise 2 to 7 million more people per year will experience coastal flooding by 2080 (IPCC 2007)

Infectious diseases food and water contamination

Climate Change and diahorreal diseases

Diarrhea increases 8% for 1C temperature increase

Temperature variations in hospitals in Peru (Checkley el al 2000, Lancet)

Salmonellosis increase by 12% for each degree increase above 6C ambient temperature
Salmonellosis

Source: EU/WHO cCASHh, 2004

Temperature and salinity - Distribution and density of Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus in shellfish (De Paola et al. 2003; McLaughlin et al., 2005,
Zimmerman et al. 2007)

Vibrio cholerae - peaks of disease are seasonally associated with higher water temperature and phyto-plancton.

Marine Biotoxins
Ocean warming and ocean acidification (due to increased CO2) glacier melting, precipitation, flash floods, increase nutrient release Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) marine toxins
(Hall et al., 2002; Hunter, 2003; Korenberg, 2004).

Global distribution of HAB toxins and Increase of Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning outbreaks
:

reproduced from Dolah (2000 and Glibert et al. (2005)

Toxigenic fungi & mycotoxins

Temperature, humidity Drought stress Pests and plant diseases Soil conditions nutrient status

Flowering & Harvests season, EFSA 2012

Risk of Aatoxin B1 maiz contaminaAon in Europe (2000-2100) EFSA 2012

Challenges of Biofuel production

Estimated 100-170% growth in last 5 years Environmental degradation (desforestation, biodiversity loss, water use and contamination etc.) UN-Energy group 2007. Food and nutrition insecurity in poor countries (FAO, 2007) Biofuel Responsible for 30% increase of food prices on 2008 (IFPRI, 2009)

Increase on Food Prices

Cimate change and decline of calorie availability in developing countries 21% more undernourished children in 2050
Number of Malnourished Children in Sub-Saharan Africa (millions)

Copyright: Barry Popkin

Chronic, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause 63% of global deaths (35 million), 80% in LIMIC. Total deaths due to NCDs are projected to rise to 52 million by 2030. Some 1 billion adults and 20 million children are estimated to be overweight. Diets low fruit and vegetable intake high saturated fats and low physical activity

www.unscn.org

A change of climate
Adaptation and mitigation Climate Resilient and
sustainable development WHO, Health in a Green Economy (2011-12) UNEP, Assessing the Environmental Impacts of Consumption and Production (2010) UN SCN, climate change and nutrition security (2011-12)

UN FRAMEWORK CONVENTION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE UNFCCC (COP16)

Assessing the Environmental Impacts of Consumption and Production (UNEP,2010)

As the global population surges towards a

predicted 9.1 billion people by 2050, western tastes for diets rich in meat and dairy products are unsustainable global shift towards a vegan diet is vital to save the world from hunger, fuel poverty and the worst impacts of climate change

Meat (beef, lamb, pork)

Eat less, reduce portion size. Eat locally produced and grass fed animals

Fish and shellfish choose seafood with sustainable eco-labels Fruits, vegetables Seasonal and locally produced
Pesticide free

Potatoes, cereals Cooking fat Water

Locally grown reduce rice intake Choose rape seed and olive oil reduce palm Choose tap water Locally produced/packed

EU Health PromoAng Agriculture

EU White paper AdapAng to climate change 2009 addressing the climate issues related to food and nutri3on, environment, inequali3es etc. Co-benets of AdaptaAon and MiAgaAon on the food and agriculture sectors e.g. strategies to mi3gate the impacts of the agriculture sector (e.g. climate smart agriculture, sustainable diets) Sustainable food producAon and consumpAon and waste reducAon (Tirado et al., 2009 EC/WHO CEHAPIS project; EC European Group of Ethics in Science and Technology 2008)

A changing climate towards responsible consumption and production

Should be a label indicating a products carbon footprint mandatory?

SOURCE OF DATA EUROBAROMETER 2009 Base all respondents % EU 27

Health Indicators for sustainable agriculture, food and nutriAon security

Health outcomes: anemia in women of reproduc3ve age; stun3ng in children under 5 years; obesity in children under 5 and in adults; Food access and dietary quality and sustainable foods producAon: adequate access to protein supply; excessive adult saturated fat consump3on; household dietary diversity; and Food market/trade policies supporAng health and sustainability: countries that have phased out use of an3bio3cs as growth promoters; health impact assessment in agricultural policies, trade plans. compliance with food safety standards

Creating a climate for Health

http://www.climatehealthconnect.org/

Sustainable diets Co-benefits

Healthy diet rich in fruits & vegetables (400gr/ day) can save 2.7 million lives Environmentally sustainable Socially equitable

A Win-Win situation and common goal