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KMT RPS Aff

KMT RPS Aff

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10/16/2011

US ECONOMIC COLLAPSE KILLS HEGEMONY AND CAUSES WMD WAR WITH CHINA
MEAD 04
(Walter Russell, Senior Fellow for US Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, America’s
Sticky Power, Foreign Policy, March/April)

Similarly, in the last 60 years, as foreigners have acquired a greater value in the United States-government and private bonds,
direct and portfolio private investments-more and more of them have acquired an interest in maintaining the
strength of the U.S.-led system. A collapse of the U.S. economy and the ruin of the dollar would do more than dent the
prosperity of the United States. Without their best customer, countries including China and Japan would fall into
depressions. The financial strength of every country would be severely shaken should the United States collapse.

Under those circumstances, debt becomes a strength, not a weakness, and other countries fear to break with the United States because they need its market and own its
securities. Of course, pressed too far, a large national debt can turn from a source of strength to a crippling liability, and the United States must continue to justify other
countries' faith by maintaining its long-term record of meeting its financial obligations. But, like Samson in the temple of the Philistines, a collapsing U.S.
economy would inflict enormous, unacceptable damage on the rest of the world. That is sticky power with a vengeance.
THE SUM OF ALL POWERS?
The United States' global economic might is therefore not simply, to use Nye's formulations, hard power that compels others or soft power that attracts the rest of the world.
Certainly, the U.S. economic system provides the United States with the prosperity needed to underwrite its security
strategy, but it also encourages other countries to accept U.S. leadership. U.S. economic might is sticky power.

How will sticky power help the United States address today's challenges? One pressing need is to ensure that Iraq's economic reconstruction integrates the nation more
firmly in the global economy. Countries with open economies develop powerful trade-oriented businesses; the leaders of these businesses can promote economic policies
that respect property rights, democracy, and the rule of law. Such leaders also lobby governments to avoid the isolation that characterized Iraq and Libya under economic
sanctions. And looking beyond Iraq, the allure of access to Western capital and global markets is one of the few forces protecting the rule of law from even further erosion
in Russia.

China's rise to global prominence will offer a key test case for sticky power. As China develops economically, it
should gain wealth that could support a military rivaling that of the United States; China is also gaining political influence in the
world. Some analysts in both China and the United States believe that the laws of history mean that Chinese power will someday clash
with the reigning U.S. power.
Sticky power offers a way out. China benefits from participating in the U.S. economic system and integrating itself
into the global economy . Between 1970 and 2003, China's gross domestic product grew from an estimated $106 billion to more than $1.3 trillion. By 2003, an
estimated $450 billion of foreign money had flowed into the Chinese economy. Moreover, China is becoming increasingly dependent on both
imports and exports to keep its economy (and its military machine) going. Hostilities between the United States and China
would cripple China's industry, and cut off supplies of oil and other key commodities.

Sticky power works both ways, though. If China cannot afford war with the United States, the United States will have an increasingly hard time breaking off commercial
relations with China. In an era of weapons of mass destruction, this mutual dependence is probably good for both sides.
Sticky power did not prevent World War I, but economic interdependence runs deeper now; as a result, the
"inevitable" U.S.-Chinese conflict is less likely to occur.
Sticky power, then, is important to U.S. hegemony for two reasons: It helps prevent war, and, if war comes, it helps
the United States win. But to exercise power in the real world, the pieces must go back together. Sharp, sticky, and soft power work together to sustain U.S.
hegemony. Today, even as the United States' sharp and sticky power reach unprecedented levels, the rise of anti-Americanism reflects a crisis in U.S. soft power that
challenges fundamental assumptions and relationships in the U.S. system. Resolving the tension so that the different forms of power reinforce one another is one of the
principal challenges facing U.S. foreign policy in 2004 and beyond.

87

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ECONOMY EXTS – IMPACTS

Economic collapse will spawn regional wars around the globe, fuel weapons proliferation, and ensure US
intervention in numerous foreign conflicts

Lopez 98, Freelance Journalist and Frequent Author on International Economic Issues
[Beranrdo V., “Global Recession phase two” Catastrophic”, BusinessWorld, September 10, p. 12, LN]

What would it be like if global recession becomes full bloom? The results will be catastrophic. Certainly, global recession will spawn wars of all
kinds. Ethnic wars can easily escalate in the grapple for dwindling food stocks as in India-Pakistan -Afghanistan,
Yugoslavia, Ethiopia-Eritrea, Indonesia. Regional conflicts in key flashpoints can easily erupt such as in the
Middle East, Korea, and Taiwan. In the Philippines, as in some Latin American countries, splintered insurgency forces may take advantage of the economic
drought to regroup and reemerge in the countryside. Unemployment worldwide will be in the billions. Famine can be triggered in
key Third World nations with India, North Korea, Ethiopia and other African countries as first candidates. Food riots
and the breakdown of law and order are possibilities. Global recession will see the deferment of globalization, the shrinking of international trade - especially of high-
technology commodities such as in the computer, telecommunications, electronic and automotive industries. There will be a return to basics with food security being a
prime concern of all governments, over industrialization and trade expansions. Protectionism will reemerge and trade liberalization will suffer a big setback. The WTO-
GATT may have to redefine its provisions to adjust to the changing times. Even the World Bank-IMF consortium will experience continued crisis in dealing with financial
hemorrhages. There will not be enough funds to rescue ailing economies. A few will get a windfall from the disaster with the erratic movement in world prices of basic
goods. But the majority, especially the small and medium enterprises (SMEs), will suffer serious shrinkage. Mega-mergers and acquisitions will rock the corporate
landscape. Capital markets will shrink and credit crisis and spiralling interest rates will spread internationally. And environmental advocacy will be shelved in the name of
survival. Domestic markets will flourish but only on basic commodities. The focus of enterprise will shift into basic goods in the medium term. Agrarian economies are at
an advantage since they are the food producers. Highly industrialized nations will be more affected by the recession. Technologies will concentrate on servicing domestic
markets and the agrarian economy will be the first to regrow. The setback on research and development and high-end technologies will be compensated in its eventual focus
on agrarian activity. A return to the rural areas will decongest the big cities and the ensuing real estate glut will send prices tumbling down. Tourism and travel will regress
by a decade and airlines worldwide will need rescue. Among the indigenous communities and agrarian peasantry, many will shift back to prehistoric subsistence economy.
But there will be a more crowded upland situation as lowlanders seek more lands for production. The current crisis for land of indigenous communities will worsen. Land
conflicts will increase with the indigenous communities who have nowhere else to go either being massacred in armed conflicts or dying of starvation. Backyard gardens
will be precious and home-based food production will flourish. As unemployment expands, labor will shift to self-reliant microenterprises if the little capital available can
be sourced. In the past, the US could afford amnesty for millions of illegal migrants because of its resilient economy. But with unemployment increasing, the US will be
forced to clamp down on a reemerging illegal migration which will increase rapidly. Unemployment in the US will be the hardest to cope with since it may have very little
capability for subsistence economy and its agrarian base is automated and controlled by a few. The riots and looting of stores in New York City in the late '70s because of a
state-wide brownout hint of the type of anarchy in the cities. Such looting in this most affluent nation is not impossible. The weapons industry may also grow
rapidly because of the ensuing wars. Arms escalation will have primacy over food production if wars escalate. The
US will depend increasingly on weapons exports to nurse its economy back to health. This will further induce wars
and conflicts which will aggravate US recession rather than solve it. The US may depend more and more on the use of force and its
superiority to get its ways internationally.

88

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KMT Lab

RPS - Aff

ECONOMY EXTS – IMPACTS

(__) ECONOMIC DECLINE CRUSHES HEGEMONY AND CAUSES TERRORISM

89

SDI 2008

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RPS - Aff

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