Sudan Opposition Fails to Take Lead on Protests Protest participants aware, angry and hungry, but formal attempts

at consolidate l eadership fail to add momentum. By IWPR contributor, Simon Jennings - International Justice - ICC ACR Issue 326, 12 Jul 12 Although leading Sudanese opposition parties came together last week to back the grassroots movement for regime change, the move has so far failed to take the o ngoing street demonstrations to a new level. The Umma Party, Communist party, and Popular Congress Party all part of the Nati onal Consensus Forces, an opposition umbrella group signed the Democratic Altern ative Charter, DAC, on July 4. Under the agreement, the three parties committed themselves to efforts to oust t he National Congress Party, NCP, of President Omar al-Bashir, and agreed plans f or a post-revolutionary government, with a three-year transition period in which current opposition parties will share power before elections are held under a n ew constitution. Protesters stand firm Demonstrations calling for regime change, which started on June 17 in response t o government plans to impose austerity measures on Sudan, have rumbled on in Kha rtoum and other major towns for the last three weeks. (See Sudan: Beginning of E nd for Bashir?) Participants have remained defiant although hundreds have been arrested and sign s that the government is weakening are hard to spot. Protester numbers increased on June 30 around the planned lick your elbow demonstr ations a reference to a speech by presidential adviser Nafie Ali Nafie, who sugg ested that overthrowing the regime he represented would be impossible. The numbers increased again on Friday, July 6, when hundreds of protestors were trapped inside a mosque in Wad-Nobawi in Omdurman. According to protesters who s poke to IWPR, police stationed outside the mosque fired rubber bullets at people trying to leave. "We were trapped inside for hours and they kept throwing tear gas. It was very s trong and some people fainted," a protestor interviewed by IWPR said. As the security crackdown intensifies, activists estimate that as many as 2,000 protestors have been detained. Many have since been released, but will probably face trial. The NCP has denied that any peaceful protesters have been arrested. The arrests may prove counterproductive. A protester in Omdurman told IWPR that people no longer feared the security services, and were coming out onto the stre ets because of rather than in spite of oppression. "People are aware, angry and hungry now, and that's what makes a revolution happ en," he said. "I think we will have a million-man protest very soon because the numbers are increasing and protestors are becoming more organised. It has become a trial of strength in which the resolve of demonstrators like thi s man is pitted against the regimes determination to use force to maintain its po sition a response that some see as a sign of a regime with few options left.

The detentions are making the street even more angry, [and] a financially bankrup t regime even poorer, as it does very little to address the dire economic situat ion which was the trigger for this revolution," Dalia Haj-Omar, a member of the Girifna student activist group, said. Osman Hummaida, head of the African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies, draws similar conclusions. I think the people managed to break the fear in the last few weeks and there is s ome sort of sustainability and gaining of momentum, he said. Government losing both carrot and stick Some question whether the regime can count on the loyalty of its police force ov er the long term. The police themselves have to live on wages far outstripped by price rises, just like the wider population. "Last week, a police officer told me that, if we continue protesting, they will join us," one protestor in Khartoum said. Another driver of revolution that the government may no longer be able to contro l is the deteriorating economic situation. After shooting up by 50 per cent even before the austerity package came into force, the prices of basic foodstuffs li ke bread, cooking oil and onions have risen further by as much as 30 per cent in the last two weeks. The demonstration is building, because every Friday in terms of magnitude is high er than the Friday before, said Hafiz Mohammed, director of the advocacy group, J ustice Africa Sudan. The main issue is the real impact of [austerity] measures ta ken by the government will be felt gradually. The austerity measures were prompted by severe budget problems in Khartoum, caus ed by two factors. One of these is the loss of 75 per cent of oil revenues after South Sudan seceded in July 2011. The two countries have been unable to agree o n the division of income from reserves now lying south of the border. Khartoum s till has some leverage, as the crude can only be exported through a pipeline tha t runs through its territory. But South Sudan halted extraction in January, afte r accusing its northern neighbour of stealing oil from the pipeline. The other factor in the spending squeeze is the continuing high level of defence expenditure amid prolonged conflicts around Sudans periphery in Darfur, and more recently in the Nuba Mountains and on the border with South Sudan. Bashir is wanted by the International Criminal Court, ICC, accused of committing genocide in Darfur. The Hague court has also issued arrest warrants for two of his NCP colleagues, Defence Minister Abdelrahim Mohamed Hussein and South Kordof an provincial governor Ahmed Mohammed Haroun. Can political opposition play credible role? The three parties that signed the DAC accord presented it as a major step forwar d, as the first attempt of its kind to build a unified opposition leadership. However, the new alliance is yet to call its own people out onto the streets to join the mainly young, student demonstrators, and they in turn have not hailed i t as a leadership they will gladly follow. On social media websites, the talk among young Sudanese activists was that the D AC was drawn up by politicians out of touch with the current situation.

"The people that call themselves the opposition have specified a transitional go vernment before they got power, one typical web posting said. Their old brains can not grasp that youth are still revolting to achieve this, they think they can pu t us under their armpits." Osman Habila, a human rights activist and writer from the Nuba Mountains critici sed the DAC for not ensuring the interests of Sudans border regions were represen ted. "The political power in the centre did not engage in serious talks with the marg inalised, especially from the Nuba Mountains," he wrote in an article for Sudane seonline. The parties behind the DAC say they are in talks with armed movements in the bor der regions. But although these groups have expressed support for the street pro tests, it is unclear whether they will embrace the opposition parties charter. Magdi al-Gizouli, a Sudanese analyst, argues that the opposition is part of the political mainstream and will therefore struggle to reach out to a broader const ituency, including underprivileged rural communities. "A successful mass political strike cannot be carried out by the political estab lishment, he said, adding that it must happen instead through an alliance of socia l forces antagonistic to the NCP's hegemony organised labour, the fluid mass fro m informal sector, small-scale farmers, small businesses, professionals and juni or civil servants". Anyone seeking regime change must, al-Gizouli said, bridge the bloody rift betwee n urban and rural struggles in Sudan, and transform the terms of the conflict fr om one between the centre and the periphery to one between the oppressed majorit y and the elites of the political establishment". Bashars NCP appears to understand the ambivalent position of the opposition parti es. This week, it invited two of the opposition parties to discuss a new constit ution. They are doing that deliberately, to try and divide the opposition, said Mo hammed. Opposition parties appear to want regime change with a soft landing, rather than a ll the uncertainties of a radical revolution that might swallow them up. The opp osition is keen to have a change of regime, not a change of system. Mohammed said. This article was written by an IWPR contributor in Khartoum who asked to remain anonymous, and IWPRs Africa Editor Simon Jennings.