LOCAL ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT | GLOBAL COMPARISONS

Economic growth at home and abroad

By SHERYL JEAN
Staff Writer sjean@dallasnews.com

These days, you can't talk about the U.S. economy without China and Europe being mentioned. Economists say Europe's economic woes, slowing growth in Asia and uncertainty about the upcoming U.S. presidential election are dampening U.S. economic growth. U.S. companies are cautious about expanding, investing and hiring. Independent of global headwinds, the United States faces growing questions about the fate of its economy notably slowing manufacturing and reduced consumer spending. Texas is a large contributor to the U.S. economy, in terms of employment, energy and construction.

Global gross domestic product forecasts

The United States and other developed countries accounted for 62 percent of the world's GDP last year, while growth markets accounted for 25 percent and emerging markets for 13 percent. Many growth and emerging markets expect their GDP growth this year and next year to outpace U.S. GDP projections. COUNTRY
United States United Kingdom Canada Euro zone Japan Brazil China India Russia Mexico Korea Indonesia Turkey *From Consensus Economics

2010
3.0% 1.4% 3.2% 1.8% 4.0% 7.5% 10.3% 10.1% 4.0% 5.4% 6.2% 6.1% 8.9%

2011*
1.7% 0.9% 2.4% 1.6% -0.8% 3.0% 9.2% 6.9% 4.2% 3.9% 3.7% 6.4% 8.5%

2012*
2.3% 0.7% 2.1% -0.4% 2.0% 3.3% 8.4% 7.2% 3.8% 3.4% 3.3% 6.0% 2.5%

2013*
2.5% 1.8% 2.3% 0.9% 1.5% 4.4% 8.5% 7.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.9% 6.4% 4.7%

NOTE: All data is as of April 2012

Change in GDP by country

Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, predicts that growth markets (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico, Russia and Turkey) and BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) a phrase he coined will grow the fastest through 2020. The world economy is forecast to grow from $60.4 trillion in 2010 to $87.2 trillion in 2020.
(In billions) COUNTRY Growth markets BRICs China G7 countries* N-11** United States India Russia Euro area Brazil Mexico Indonesia Korea United Kingdom Turkey Japan Iran Saudi Arabia Spain Egypt France Germany Nigeria Philippines Pakistan South Africa Vietnam Bangladesh 2010 $14,466 $10,972 $5,878 $31,891 $4,859 $14,658 $1,538 $1,465 $12,075 $2,090 $1,039 $0.707 $1,007 $2,247 $0.742 $5,459 $0.357 $0.444 $1,410 $0.218 $2,583 $3,316 $0.217 $0.189 $0.175 $0.357 $0.104 $0.105 2020 $29,487 $23,457 $13,817 $37,270 $8,964 $18,100 $3,477 $2,895 $13,363 $3,268 $1,913 $1,296 $1,561 $2,786 $1,260 $5,874 $0.742 $0.777 $1,709 $0.500 $2,839 $3,534 $0.434 $0.401 $0.380 $0.556 $0.258 $0.217 CHANGE $15,020 $12,490 $7,940 $5,380 $4,100 $3,440 $1,940 $1,430 $1,290 $1,180 $0.870 $0.590 $0.550 $0.540 $0.520 $0.420 $0.380 $0.330 $0.300 $0.280 $0.260 $0.220 $0.220 $0.210 $0.210 $0.200 $0.150 $0.110

Real GDP growth by state

Texas showed the fourth best real GDP growth in 2010-11. By region, the Southwest showed the most growth, up 2.7 percent but that was below 4.1 percent in 2009-10. All but the West region showed a decline in real GDP growth in 2010-11 vs. 2009-10. Each year's growth is shown as a percentage from the previous year.
RANK/STATE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 North Dakota Oregon West Virginia Texas Alaska Michigan Massachusetts Utah Connecticut California 06-07 4.55% 3.30% -0.73% 5.44% 2.15% 0.07% 1.64% 4.93% 2.67% 1.03% 07-08 8.44% 4.48% -1.18% 0.52% 0.85% -6% 0.75% 2.53% -3.06% -0.42% 08-09 2.04% -3.32% 0.55% -1.81% 7.29% -8.98% -2.58% -1.94% -5.31% -4.71% 09-10 8.98% 8.07% 2.85% 5.24% -1% 4.90% 4.28% 4.24% 2.99% 1.71% 10-11 7.63% 4.74% 4.52% 3.31% 2.55% 2.26% 2.17% 2.04% 1.99% 1.97%

NOTES: Real GDP growth, or purchasing power, is the nominal GDP growth rate adjusted for changes in prices and inflation. Rank is by the percentage growth from 2010 to 2011.

Real GDP growth by U.S. metro area

This chart shows the nations top five metropolitan statistical areas for real GDP growth in 2009-10, followed by the top Texas MSAs leading up to the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Each years growth is shown as a percentage from the previous year.
RANK*/METRO AREA 1 2 3 4 5 13 16 28 44 56 69 73 88 103 110 140 Elizabethtown, Ky. San Jose, Calif. Elkhart, Ind. Columbus, Ind. Midland Austin Odessa Longview Sherman-Denison Waco Victoria Laredo San Antonio El Paso San Angelo Dallas-Fort Worth 06-07 -2.41% 7.36% 4.44% 4.74% 14.17% 3.80% 16.78% 6.69% 0.91% 3.66% 1.15% 1.86% 4.74% 0.28% 0.69% 4.37% 07-08 1.49% 1.95% -11.91% 4.71% -6.98% 3.38% 4.09% 2.86% 1.78% 1.75% -3.19% 1.21% 0.10% 0.61% 4.72% 0.51% 08-09 0.94% -2.43% -15.33% -13.14% 9.71% -0.47% -4.88% -1.81% -0.70% 0.39% -7.62% -2.38% -0.57% 0.51% -0.63% -1.09% 09-10 14.35% 13.39% 13.05% 10.12% 9.27% 6.97% 6.84% 5.25% 4.61% 4.21% 3.92% 3.89% 3.56% 3.14% 2.97% 2.53%

NOTE: Percents do not equal 100 due to the duplication of some countries in groups. *The G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and the United States. **N-11 stands for the Next 11 countries Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea and Vietnam identified by O'Neill as having a high potential of becoming the world's largest economies in the 21st century.

NOTE: Annual real GDP growth is the nominal GDP growth rate adjusted for changes in prices and inflation. *Rank is by the percentage growth from 2010 to 2011.

SOURCES: Consensus Economics; Goldman Sachs Asset Management; Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

The bottom line

Given headwinds from Europe and Asia, the approaching fiscal cliff and the loss of momentum in the U.S. economy, the rest of this year will feel sluggish. The North Texas economy will continue to be a strong performer through 2012, but local companies that export to Europe and Asia are exposed to the cooler global economy. Robert Dye, chief economist, Comerica Bank As the nation goes, so go Texas and D-FW. However, in all but three of the last 35 years, the rates of population, income and job growth in Texas and the Metroplex have exceeded the nation's. A growing energy sector and a younger population helps explain why Texas' economic performance is stronger than other large states. Bernard Bud Weinstein, economist, Southern Methodist University Texas historically has been an economic powerhouse. The state has fared well during the recovery from the Great Recession, especially of late in manufacturing and job growth and home sales. However, some recent economic indicators, such as Texas jobs and exports, have weakened. Sheryl Jean, staff writer, The Dallas Morning News