The Fallout Decay Calculator and the following provided by Gary D.

Ott

Please read this information before using the Fallout Decay

Calculator
These 2 papers might be of help:
http://www.nuclearpathways.org/Docs/pdfs/7906.pdf
http://www.nuclearpathways.org/Docs/pdfs/Effects.pdf
From Chapter 2 of Worldwide Effects of Nuclear War:

"It has been estimated that a weapon with a fission yield of 1 million tons TNT
equivalent power (1 megaton) exploded at ground level in a 15 miles-per-hour
wind would produce fallout in an ellipse extending hundreds of miles downwind
from the burst point. At a distance of 20-25 miles downwind, a lethal radiation
dose (600 rads) would be accumulated by a person who did not find shelter
within 25 minutes after the time the fallout began. At a distance of 40-45 miles,
a person would have at most 3 hours after the fallout began to find shelter."
Also...

"Probably the most serious threat is cesium-137, a gamma emitter with a halflife of 30 years. It is a major source of radiation in nuclear fallout, and since it
parallels potassium chemistry, it is readily taken into the blood of animals and
men and may be incorporated into tissue. Other hazards are strontium-90, an
electron emitter with a half-life of 28 years, and iodine-131 with a half-life of
only 8 days. Strontium-90 follows calcium chemistry, so that it is readily
incorporated into the bones and teeth, particularly of young children who have
received milk from cows consuming contaminated forage. Iodine-131 is a
similar threat to infants and children because of its concentration in the thyroid
gland. In addition, there is plutonium-239, frequently used in nuclear
explosives. A bone-seeker like strontium-90, it may also become lodged in the
lungs, where its intense local radiation can cause cancer or other damage.

Plutonium-239 decays through emission of an alpha particle (helium nucleus)

and has a half-life of 24,000 years. To the extent that hydrogen fusion
contributes to the explosive force of a weapon, two other radionuclides will be
released: tritium (hydrogen-3), an electron emitter with a half-life of 12 years,
and carbon-14, an electron emitter with a half-life of 5,730 years. Both are
taken up through the food cycle and readily incorporated in organic matter."

Instructions? Assuming you have to use it, the critical factors are
windspeed/direction and elapsed time since the detonation. That will allow you
to speculate on the probable location of the detonation. Assuming you have
your peak level enter 3,000 in the level box and compare your peak level at the
elapsed time with the 3,000 setting. Adjust accordingly. When you 'match' your
peak level and continuing levels, you have the peak at the site of the
detonation.
Radioactivity begins to decay when it's created, not when it arrives so the 7/10
rule is most accurate when you know the level at detonation. Most times plan
on a minimum of two weeks shelter time.
the 7/10 rule is based on raising 7 to various powers. 7 to the first=7, to the
second=49, to the third=343 and to the fourth=2,401...all in hours since
detonation. The 10 part corresponds with the 7 part, to the first 0.1, to the
second, 0.01, to the third 0.001 and to the fourth 0.0001 percentage remaining
of the initial level.
Mine is the simple version of the 7/10 rule. I got a very elaborate version at the
Alpha Rubicon website. It wants too much information, IMHO.

Column H shows the decayed radiation level under the seven/ten rule. It is
'safe' to leave shelter when the level is 104mR or below. That translates into
2.5R per day and 300R in 120 days. However, you can leave earlier for brief
periods, if you must. The best bet is to stay in shelter when sleeping until it's
below 50mR.

Older people may not have enough lifespan left to need to worry about cancer
and that's why Jerry and I talk about older people going out first and pregnant
women and children last. Healthy males may experience temporary or long
term sterilization unless they follow the same guidelines.
One final note, you can't just print it off because it's interactive and you have to
enter numbers.

data from some of my stories:

1. The denser and thicker the barrier substance, the better its shielding
properties. Where every 3.6" of earth cuts the incoming gamma radiation in
half, thus doubling the PF, it would only take 2.4" of concrete because it is even
denser. Of course, earth is cheaper, but where concrete had been used in the
construction of a shelter it'll be providing even additional barrier protection.
Also, the tenth-value thickness, in inches, for steel is 3.3; for concrete, 11; for
earth, 16; for water, 24; for wood, 38. That means that where you have those
thicknesses you'll have only 1/10th as much gamma radiation pass through
with that barrier material.

The denser and thicker the barrier substance, the better its shielding
properties. Where every 3.6" of earth cuts the incoming gamma radiation in
half, thus doubling the PF, it would only take 2.4" of concrete because it is even
denser. Of course, earth is cheaper, but where concrete had been used in the
construction of a shelter it'll be providing even additional barrier protection.
Also, the tenth-value thickness, in inches, for steel is 3.3; for concrete, 11; for
earth, 16; for water, 24; for wood, 38. That means that where you have those
thicknesses you'll have only 1/10th as much gamma radiation pass through
with that barrier material. Now we can calculate the protection factor of a foot
of concrete and 10 of earth. 120 16 = 7.5 so the protection factor is 107.5.
A foot of concrete raises it to 108.6. 104 = 10,000. You dont even need that
foot of concrete. 16 of earth = a PF of 10, 32 = a PF of 100, 48 = a PF of
1,000 and 64 = a PF of 10,000. A normal slab of concrete for a patio would
double the Protection Factor.
Dose-equivalents are presently stated in sieverts:
0.050.2 Sv (520 REM)
No symptoms. Potential for cancer and mutation of genetic material, according
to the LNT model: this is disputed. A few researchers contend that low dose
radiation may be beneficial. 50 mSv is the yearly federal limit for radiation
workers in the United States. In the UK the yearly limit for a classified radiation
worker is 20 mSv. In Canada, the singleyear maximum is 50 mSv, but the
maximum 5-year dose is only 100 mSv. Company limits are usually stricter so
as not to violate federal limits.
0.20.5 Sv (2050 REM)
No noticeable symptoms. Red blood cell count decreases temporarily.
0.51 Sv (50100 REM)
Mild radiation sickness with headache and increased risk of infection due to
disruption of immunity cells. Temporary male sterility is possible.
12 Sv (100200 REM)
Light radiation poisoning, 10% fatality after 30 days. Typical symptoms include
mild to moderate nausea (50% probability at 2 Sv), with occasional vomiting,
beginning 3 to 6 hours after irradiation and lasting for up to one day. This is
followed by a 10 to 14 day latent phase, after which light symptoms like general
illness and fatigue appear (50% probability at 2 Sv). The immune system is
depressed, with convalescence extended and increased risk of infection.
Temporary male sterility is common. Spontaneous abortion or stillbirth will
occur in pregnant women.
23 Sv (200300 REM)

Severe radiation poisoning, 35% fatality after 30 days. Nausea is common

(100% at 3 Sv), with 50% risk of vomiting at 2.8 Sv. Symptoms onset at 1 to 6
hours after irradiation and last for 1 to 2 days. After that, there is a 7 to 14 day
latent phase, after which the following symptoms appear: loss of hair all over
the body (50% probability at 3 Sv), fatigue and general illness. There is a
massive loss of leukocytes (white blood cells), greatly increasing the risk of
infection. Permanent female sterility is possible. Convalescence takes one to
several months.
34 Sv (300400 REM)

Severe radiation poisoning, 50% fatality after 30 days. Other symptoms are
similar to the 23 Sv dose, with uncontrollable bleeding in the mouth, under the
skin and in the kidneys (50% probability at 4 Sv) after the latent phase.
46 Sv (400600 REM)

Acute radiation poisoning, 60% fatality after 30 days. Fatality increases from
60% at 4.5 Sv to 90% at 6 Sv (unless there is intense medical care).
Symptoms start half an hour to two hours after irradiation and last for up to 2
days. After that, there is a 7 to 14 day latent phase, after which generally the
same symptoms appear as with 3-4 Sv irradiation, with increased intensity.
Female sterility is common at this point. Convalescence takes several months
to a year. The primary causes of death (in general 2 to 12 weeks after
irradiation) are infections and internal bleeding.
610 Sv (6001,000 REM)
Acute radiation poisoning, near 100% fatality after 14 days. Survival depends
on intense medical care. Bone marrow is nearly or completely destroyed, so a
bone marrow transplant is required. Gastric and intestinal tissue are severely
damaged. Symptoms start 15 to 30 minutes after irradiation and last for up to 2
days. Subsequently, there is a 5 to 10 day latent phase, after which the person
dies of infection or internal bleeding. Recovery would take several years and
probably would never be complete.
1050 Sv (1,0005,000 REM)

Acute radiation poisoning, 100% fatality after 7 days. An exposure this high
leads to spontaneous symptoms after 5 to 30 minutes. After powerful fatigue
and immediate nausea caused by direct activation of chemical receptors in the
brain by the irradiation, there is a period of several days of comparative wellbeing, called the latent (or "walking ghost") phase. After that, cell death in the
gastric and intestinal tissue, causing massive diarrhea, intestinal bleeding and
loss of water, leads to water-electrolyte imbalance. Death sets in with delirium
and coma due to breakdown of circulation. Death is currently inevitable; the
only treatment that can be offered is pain therapy.
5080 Sv (5,0008,000 REM)
Immediate disorientation and coma in seconds or minutes. Death occurs after
a few hours by total collapse of nervous system.

More than 80 Sv (>8,000 REM)

US military forces expect immediate death. A worker receiving 100 Sv (10,000
REM) in an accident at Wood River, Rhode Island, USA on 24Jul64 survived
for 49 hours after exposure, and an operator receiving between 60 and 180 Sv
(18,000 REM) to his upper body in an accident at Los Alamos, New Mexico,
USA on 30Dec58 survived for 36 hours.

The effects of a 1mT surface burst assuming a wind speed of 15mph, a wind
direction of due east and a time frame of 7 days are:
3,000 Rem
Distance: 30 miles

Much more than a lethal dose of radiation. Death can occur within hours of
exposure. About 10 years will need to pass before levels of radioactivity in this
area drop low enough to be considered safe, by US peacetime standards.
900 Rem
Distance: 90 miles
A lethal dose of radiation. Death occurs from two to fourteen days.
300 Rem
Distance: 160 miles
Causes extensive internal damage, including harm to nerve cells and the cells
that line the digestive tract, and results in a loss of white blood cells.
Temporary hair loss is another result.
90 Rem
Distance: 250 miles
Causes a temporary decrease in white blood cells, although there are no
immediate harmful effects. Two to three years will need to pass before
radioactivity levels in this area drop low enough to be considered safe, by US
peacetime standards.
Radius of destructive circle: 1.7 miles
12 pounds per square inch

At the center lies a crater 200 feet deep and 1000 feet in diameter. The rim of
this crater is 1,000 feet wide and is composed of highly radioactive soil and
debris. Nothing recognizable remains within about 3,200 feet (0.6 miles) from
the center, except, perhaps, the remains of some buildings' foundations. At 1.7
miles, only some of the strongest buildings those made of reinforced, poured
concrete are still standing.Ninety-eight percent of the population in this area
is dead.
Radius: 2.7 miles
5 psi
Virtually everything is destroyed between the 12 and 5-psi rings. The walls of
typical multi-story buildings, including apartment buildings, have been
completely blown out. The bare, structural skeletons of more and more
buildings rise above the debris as you approach the 5-psi ring. Single-family
residences within this area have been completely blown away only their
foundations remain. Fifty percent of the population between the 12 and 5-psi
rings are dead. Forty percent are injured.
Radius: 4.7 miles
2 psi
Any single-family residences that have not been completely destroyed are
heavily damaged. The windows of office buildings have been blown away, as
have some of their walls. The contents of these buildings' upper floors,
including the people who were working there, are scattered on the street. A
substantial amount of debris clutters the entire area. Five percent of the
population between the 5 and 2-psi rings are dead. Forty-five percent are
injured.
Radius: 7.4 miles
1 psi
Residences are moderately damaged. Commercial buildings have sustained
minimal damage. Twenty-five percent of the population between the 2 and 1psi rings are injured, mainly by flying glass and debris. Many others have been
injured from thermal radiation the heat generated by the blast. The remaining
seventy-five percent are unhurt.
"What are peacetime levels?"

"The individual dose rate of natural radiation the average inhabitant of Earth
receives is about 2.2 mSv per year. That would be about 22mRem. If, for the
sake of simplicity, we assume 1 mRem equals 1 mR, the safe level of 104mR
per hour is (4.7x8766) or ~41,400 times the peacetime level. However, since
pregnant women and children are more susceptible to radiation, we'll limit their
expose to 12 hours a day for the foreseeable future."

Copyright 2010 by Gary D. Ott

Insert Peak Level, Time & Date Here and then you can read the mR level below ==>
N

Hours

Days

Weeks

Months

Years

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.1

1.21

0.05

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.2

1.48

0.06

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.3

1.79

0.07

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.4

2.18

0.09

0.01

0.00

0.00

0.5

2.65

0.11

0.02

0.00

0.00

0.6

3.21

0.13

0.02

0.00

0.00

0.7

3.90

0.16

0.02

0.01

0.00

0.8

4.74

0.20

0.03

0.01

0.00

0.9

5.76

0.24

0.03

0.01

0.00

7.00

0.29

0.04

0.01

0.00

1.1

8.50

0.35

0.05

0.01

0.00

1.2

10.33

0.43

0.06

0.01

0.00

1.3

12.55

0.52

0.07

0.02

0.00

1.4

15.25

0.64

0.09

0.02

0.00

1.5

18.52

0.77

0.11

0.03

0.00

1.6

22.50

0.94

0.13

0.03

0.00

1.7

27.33

1.14

0.16

0.04

0.00

1.8

33.20

1.38

0.20

0.05

0.00

1.9

40.34

1.68

0.24

0.06

0.00

49.00

2.04

0.29

0.07

0.01

2.1

59.53

2.48

0.35

0.08

0.01

2.2

72.31

3.01

0.43

0.10

0.01

2.3

87.85

3.66

0.52

0.12

0.01

2.4

106.72

4.45

0.64

0.15

0.01

2.5

129.64

5.40

0.77

0.18

0.01

2.6

157.49

6.56

0.94

0.22

0.02

2.7

191.32

7.97

1.14

0.26

0.02

2.8

232.42

9.68

1.38

0.32

0.03

2.9

282.35

11.76

1.68

0.39

0.03

343.00

14.29

2.04

0.47

0.04

3.1

416.68

17.36

2.48

0.57

0.05

3.2

506.19

21.09

3.01

0.69

0.06

3.3

614.93

25.62

3.66

0.84

0.07

3.4

747.02

31.13

4.45

1.02

0.09

3.5

907.49

37.81

5.40

1.24

0.10

3.6

1,102.43

45.93

6.56

1.51

0.13

3.7

1,339.25

55.80

7.97

1.83

0.15

3.8

1,626.94

67.79

9.68

2.23

0.19

3.9

1,976.43

82.35

11.76

2.71

0.23

2,401.00

100.04

14.29

3.29

0.27

4.1

2,916.77

121.53

17.36

3.99

0.33

4.2

3,543.33

147.64

21.09

4.85

0.40

4.3

4,304.49

179.35

25.62

5.89

0.49

4.4

5,229.15

217.88

31.13

7.16

0.60

4.5

6,352.45

264.69

37.81

8.70

0.72

4.6

7,717.04

321.54

45.93

10.56

0.88

4.7

9,374.77

390.62

55.80

12.83

1.07

4.8

11,388.61

474.53

67.79

15.59

1.30

4.9

13,835.04

576.46

82.35

18.94

1.58

16,807.00

700.29

100.04

23.01

1.92

5.1

20,417.38

850.72

121.53

27.95

2.33

5.2

24,803.32

1,033.47

147.64

33.95

2.83

5.3

30,131.42

1,255.48

179.35

41.25

3.44

5.4

36,604.07

1,525.17

217.88

50.11

4.18

5.5

44,467.14

1,852.80

264.69

60.87

5.07

5.6

54,019.31

2,250.80

321.54

73.95

6.16

5.7

65,623.42

2,734.31

390.62

89.83

7.49

5.8

79,720.25

3,321.68

474.53

109.13

9.09

5.9

96,845.27

4,035.22

576.46

132.57

11.05

117,649.00

4,902.04

700.29

161.05

13.42

6.1

142,921.66

5,955.07

850.72

195.65

16.30

6.2

173,623.24

7,234.30

1,033.47

237.68

19.81

6.3

210,919.95

8,788.33

1,255.48

288.73

24.06

6.4

256,228.51

10,676.19

1,525.17

350.76

29.23

6.5

311,270.00

12,969.58

1,852.80

426.11

35.51

6.6

378,135.16

15,755.63

2,250.80

517.64

43.14

6.7

459,363.91

19,140.16

2,734.31

628.83

52.40

6.8

558,041.72

23,251.74

3,321.68

763.92

63.66

6.9

677,916.92

28,246.54

4,035.22

928.02

77.33

823,543.00

34,314.29

4,902.04

1,127.37

93.95

7.1

1,000,451.60

41,685.48

5,955.07

1,369.54

114.13

7.2

1,215,362.66

50,640.11

7,234.30

1,663.74

138.65

7.3

1,476,439.62

61,518.32

8,788.33

2,021.14

168.43

7.4

1,793,599.59

74,733.32

10,676.19

2,455.30

204.61

7.5

2,178,889.97

90,787.08

12,969.58

2,982.74

248.56

7.6

2,646,946.14

110,289.42

15,755.63

3,623.47

301.96

7.7

3,215,547.34

133,981.14

19,140.16

4,401.84

366.82

7.8

3,906,292.07

162,762.17

23,251.74

5,347.42

445.62

7.9

4,745,418.47

197,725.77

28,246.54

6,496.12

541.34

5,764,801.00

240,200.04

34,314.29

7,891.58

657.63

8.1

7,003,161.22

291,798.38

41,685.48

9,586.81

798.90

8.2

8,507,538.60

354,480.77

50,640.11

11,646.19

970.52

8.3

10,335,077.37

430,628.22

61,518.32

14,147.95

1,179.00

8.4

12,555,197.13

523,133.21

74,733.32

17,187.13

1,432.26

8.5

15,252,229.80

635,509.58

90,787.08

20,879.16

1,739.93

8.6

18,528,622.97

772,025.96

110,289.42

25,364.30

2,113.69

8.7

22,508,831.40

937,867.97

133,981.14

30,812.91

2,567.74

8.8

27,344,044.50

1,139,335.19

162,762.17

37,431.96

3,119.33

8.9

33,217,929.28

1,384,080.39

197,725.77

45,472.87

3,789.41

40,353,607.00

1,681,400.29

240,200.04

55,241.08

4,603.42

9.1

49,022,128.51

2,042,588.69

291,798.38

67,107.64

5,592.30

9.2

59,552,770.18

2,481,365.42

354,480.77

81,523.30

6,793.61

9.3

72,345,541.58

3,014,397.57

430,628.22

99,035.65

8,252.97

9.4

87,886,379.94

3,661,932.50

523,133.21

120,309.90

10,025.82

9.5

106,765,608.63

4,448,567.03

635,509.58

146,154.15

12,179.51

9.6

129,700,360.78

5,404,181.70

772,025.96

177,550.12

14,795.84

9.7

157,561,819.79

6,565,075.82

937,867.97

215,690.38

17,974.20

9.8

191,408,311.49

7,975,346.31

1,139,335.19

262,023.70

21,835.31

9.9

232,525,504.94

9,688,562.71

1,384,080.39

318,310.07

26,525.84

10

282,475,249.00

11,769,802.04

1,681,400.29

386,687.54

32,223.96

ad the mR level below ==>

Residual Radiation
1.000000000000
0.794328234724
0.630957344480
0.501187233627
0.398107170553
0.316227766017
0.251188643151
0.199526231497
0.158489319246
0.125892541179
0.100000000000
0.079432823472
0.063095734448
0.050118723363
0.039810717055
0.031622776602
0.025118864315
0.019952623150
0.015848931925
0.012589254118
0.010000000000
0.007943282347
0.006309573445
0.005011872336
0.003981071706
0.003162277660
0.002511886432
0.001995262315
0.001584893192
0.001258925412
0.001000000000
0.000794328235
0.000630957344
0.000501187234
0.000398107171
0.000316227766
0.000251188643
0.000199526231

Radiation
Time
Date
100
12:00 AM
01/01/01
For Safety's sake, don't stay out until it says 100mR/or less
mR
R
Mon, 01/01/2001 12:00 AM
100,000.000
100.000
Mon, 01/01/2001 12:00 AM
79,432.823
79.433
Mon, 01/01/2001 01:12 AM
63,095.734
63.096
Mon, 01/01/2001 01:28 AM
50,118.723
50.119
Mon, 01/01/2001 01:47 AM
39,810.717
39.811
Mon, 01/01/2001 02:10 AM
31,622.777
31.623
Mon, 01/01/2001 02:38 AM
25,118.864
25.119
Mon, 01/01/2001 03:12 AM
19,952.623
19.953
Mon, 01/01/2001 03:54 AM
15,848.932
15.849
Mon, 01/01/2001 04:44 AM
12,589.254
12.589
Mon, 01/01/2001 05:45 AM
10,000.000
10.000
Mon, 01/01/2001 07:00 AM
7,943.282
7.943
Mon, 01/01/2001 08:30 AM
6,309.573
6.310
Mon, 01/01/2001 10:19 AM
5,011.872
5.012
Mon, 01/01/2001 12:32 PM
3,981.072
3.981
Mon, 01/01/2001 03:14 PM
3,162.278
3.162
Mon, 01/01/2001 06:31 PM
2,511.886
2.512
Mon, 01/01/2001 10:29 PM
1,995.262
1.995
Tue, 01/02/2001 03:19 AM
1,584.893
1.585
Tue, 01/02/2001 09:12 AM
1,258.925
1.259
Tue, 01/02/2001 04:20 PM
1,000.000
1.000
Wed, 01/03/2001 01:00 AM
794.328
0.794
Wed, 01/03/2001 11:31 AM
630.957
0.631
Thu, 01/04/2001 12:18 AM
501.187
0.501
Thu, 01/04/2001 03:50 PM
398.107
0.398
Fri, 01/05/2001 10:43 AM
316.228
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251.189
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199.526
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158.489
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125.893
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Fri, 01/12/2001 06:20 PM
100.000
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79.433
0.079
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63.096
0.063
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50.119
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Fri, 01/26/2001 02:55 PM
39.811
0.040
Thu, 02/01/2001 03:01 AM
31.623
0.032
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25.119
0.025
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19.953
0.020
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Fri, 03/09/2001 06:56 PM

Sat, 03/24/2001 08:26 AM
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Wed, 05/02/2001 12:46 PM
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Fri, 06/29/2001 08:29 AM
Mon, 08/06/2001 09:09 PM
Sat, 09/22/2001 04:26 PM
Sun, 11/18/2001 01:02 PM
Sat, 01/26/2002 02:46 PM
Sat, 04/20/2002 12:36 PM
Wed, 07/31/2002 11:02 AM
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Thu, 05/01/2003 05:22 PM
Fri, 10/31/2003 11:19 AM
Wed, 06/09/2004 11:25 AM
Sun, 03/06/2005 04:04 AM
Fri, 01/27/2006 07:08 PM
Thu, 03/01/2007 07:18 PM
Fri, 06/27/2008 07:24 AM
Thu, 02/04/2010 04:14 PM
Thu, 01/19/2012 05:16 AM
Wed, 06/04/2014 01:00 AM
Sat, 04/22/2017 01:39 AM
Thu, 10/22/2020 07:14 AM
Thu, 01/23/2025 07:56 AM
Tue, 03/26/2030 04:30 AM
Sat, 07/05/2036 01:59 PM
Sat, 02/20/2044 03:09 PM
Wed, 05/28/2053 03:54 AM
Fri, 08/29/2064 05:43 PM
Tue, 05/03/2078 12:55 PM
Mon, 12/13/2094 07:00 AM
Mon, 02/18/2115 11:36 AM
Wed, 08/26/2139 02:39 AM
Wed, 06/07/2169 07:37 AM
Tue, 08/13/2205 07:35 AM
Fri, 07/27/2249 01:58 AM
Fri, 12/19/2302 10:08 AM
Tue, 10/31/2367 03:20 AM
Sat, 08/18/2446 04:04 AM
Thu, 05/10/2542 06:28 PM

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Wed, 08/25/2658 01:00 AM

Thu, 12/02/2799 09:12 AM
Mon, 07/15/2971 06:35 PM
Wed, 01/09/3180 05:22 AM
Wed, 04/17/3433 05:08 AM
Mon, 12/19/3740 01:48 PM
Wed, 09/26/4114 10:58 PM
Mon, 10/17/4568 11:23 PM
Tue, 05/25/5120 04:29 AM
Sat, 06/26/5790 09:16 AM
Mon, 07/09/6604 07:00 AM
Wed, 06/02/7593 04:30 PM
Sat, 10/01/8794 10:11 AM
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