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M J Kelly, CUED, DCLG, Laird.



P Head, Arup

[1]: Introduction: The Triple Challenge [2]: The Scale of Challenge [3]: Possible National Actions [4]: Summary

[1] The Triple Challenge

UK now a net importer of Energy, and so energy security/ independence is a vital national interest. The basic Climate change science is in, and the future scenarios are unpleasant we must adapt to and mitigate against future climates. The UK indulges in 3-planet living (US=11!), which is absolutely not Sustainable. ___________________________________ (1)!The ECS triple challenge will be met or missed in existing buildings, where the solutions are common. (2)! Water will cause the first international crisis 3

The Scale of the Challenge: (2.1) Energy Consumption

Between 1973 and 2004

Energy use in Buildings

Energy consumption in buildings by method of ventilation: Natural 300kW/m2/year Mechanical 750kW/m2/year In naturally ventilated buildings, heat is lost/gained through the fabric and by infiltration, with artificial lighting an important component. In mechanically ventilated buildings one adds fans, pumps and refrigeration consumption. Less fabric loss by improving U-value of building envelope. Infiltration tested by air pressure tests on sealed building. Air conditioning not strictly necessary in UK now, but may become so.

The Scale of the Challenge: (2.2) Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

Carbon reduction and the built environment: Five initial facts ! HMG is about to commit to an 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 ! 45% of all present carbon emissions come from existing buildings, with 27% from homes ! 87% of existing buildings will still be here in 2050 ! CLG is the lead department of HMG concerning the built environment: planning, building codes, building regulations,... ! We must work with OGDs on existing buildings

Estimated sectoral economic mitigation potential in 2030

(IPPC4- May 07)

The built environment has a significant impact on emissions and water consumption
Carbon emissions from energy use in buildings account for 45% of UK emissions; our homes 27% Water use in homes accounts for over half of public water consumption in England and Wales

Domestic 27%

Buildings almost equal to transport and industry together

UK Housing Stock Much of it is old, and not well insulated.

Profile of English Housing Stock


Further data on English housing stock.

! During 1900-1998, housing stock grew from 7M to 22M ! Building peaked in 1968 with 410K, but down to 141K in 1999. ! Age: 62% of homes before 1965, and 35% before 1939. ! Semi-detached housing at 4.9M is 31% of total stock, followed by lowrise flats and detached houses. ! During 20th century ! urbanisation went from 77% to 89% of the population ! small change, cf France: 59% urban in 1954 to 74% in 1990 ! owner occupiers from 10% to 68% of homes ! private renting down from 89% to 10%. ! In 1999 18% of homes rented from local authority, and 5% from housing association.

Recent progress Hard data from recent times projected forward

1990#: 2005#: 2020

154MtCO2 equivalent from housing 35% of energy saving interventions installed* 147MtCO2 equivalent from housing 65% of energy saving interventions installed* 114MtCO2, HMGs target for housing

Must achieve net savings at six times rate of recent history. 4% savings net of many factors At most a 20% further reductions via 100% reach of * above.
Measured data, incontrovertible 12 * 3 loft insulation, >60% window double glazed, >60% rooms draught proofed, cavity wall insulation to modern standards

Notes on continuing progress

We will exhaust present measures on the fabric of houses within a 8-10 years. Existing buildings will meet their 2050 carbon reduction target by: 1.!New measures to improve the thermal envelope of buildings materials, installation processes, controls, etc 2.!Decarbonising the grid and other sources of energy 3.!Improving the energy efficiency of appliances and 4.!Changes in personal attitudes and behaviour concerning 13 profligate energy consumption.

China Data (from Prof Y Jiang, Tsinghua U)

The measured energy consumption of AC in every units of building A in Beijing,2006, split unit


Where the difference come from?

Starting temperature:
! As soon as indoor temperature is lower than the starting point, occupant may not turn on the AC even it is higher than comfort set point ! However, after the AC is turned on, it is very likely that the occupant keeps the indoor at the comfort set point
Starting temperature: 29 ! Operation set point : 26 !

How energy relate with operation?

Comparing with the energy consumption of the five cases

! Total cooling electricity consumption"! #####21.8kWh/m2 to 3.3kWh/m2!

Measured data & simulation data in Beijing


AC energy in building B in Beijing

Electricity consumption by AC for home units at same location but different floors in building B

Beijing & Philadelphia



The Scale of the Challenge: (2.3) Sustainability: CLG 2006 report to Parliament

Available figures show annual energy use of buildings decreased by 0.7% between November 2004 and 2006. There was an overall increase of 1.1% in carbon emissions in that period. Over that period there were increases of 67% in photovoltaic installations 23-36% for small wind turbines 21-24% for small hydro schemes 150% for ground source heat pumps 140% for biomass installations Use of recycled material in construction increased 21-23% by value and 20-22% by mass.

Reports Galore: from 26 November 2007






Even Academia!


The Royal Academy of Engineering View

Academy welcomes Gordon Brown's new focus on climate change 20 November 2007 The Academy welcomes the Prime Minister's renewed focus on abating climate change as detailed in his first major speech on the issue yesterday. Last week's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Synthesis Report clearly demonstrates that the need is for action to reduce emissions, not another round of even more detailed analyses and negotiations. Commenting on the Prime Minister's speech, Academy Vice President Dr Sue Ion OBE FREng said: "I welcome the Prime Minister's commitment to action given the stark warnings issued by the IPCC over the weekend - but we urgently need a roadmap that

properly defines these challenges and begins to take practical steps to address them. There are massive opportunities for the UK's engineering sector
and for young people to become excited by and engaged in 21stcentury engineering projects." My bold and italics for emphasis. As a Fellow of the Academy, I fully endorse these views.


The Governments wider package of measures including incentives


Decent Homes
Warm Front Landlords Energy Saving Allowance


Zero carbon Community Energy Efficiency Fund SDLT relief Code for EEC/CERT/Supplier obligation Sustainable Homes
Design for manufacture & Millennium villages

Carbon Challenge Eco-towns

EPCs Building regulations PPS on climate change TG eco-region


Energy Saving Trust / Carbon Trust VAT reduction on energy efficient materials Low Carbon Buildings Programme Display meters/smart meters & better billing Price paid on exported electricity Decarbonising the grid Carbon Reduction Commitment Sustainable Operations on Government estate

Permitted development rights

Zero carbon CLG





Relevant Engineering Questions on This:

(1)!What do all these measures really and robustly add up to, in actual carbon savings? (2)!What data for 2010 would convince us that we are on a satisfactory emissions reduction trajectory for 2015, 2020 and 2050? (3)!Do we have the sensors in place to do the necessary measurements?


[3] Possible National Actions

SCALE is the essential ingredient

(1)! Get the HE/FE sector to show us the way (2)! Produce a concrete trajectory from 2010 to 2050 for an urban local authority (3)! Establish a retrofit consortium (4)! Start a campaign to change public attitudes and behaviours

(3.1) Get the HE/FE sector to show the way

! Idea: The HE/FE Sector be funded and tasked to get their own estates to the 2050 targets by 2040
! Academic estates contain proxies of domestic buildings, public buildings, offices and factories ! To show the way, what can or cannot, what does or does not, work. ! Academics taking the moral high ground on the ECS Triple Challenge ! Harness the brightest minds, especially engineers and psychologists ! Inspire the participation of students ! Internal differentiation to cover the field ! Local coverage and exemplars across the nation, no regional bias ! Learn about the real costs and benefits before committing everyone ! Big enough to capture the construction sector ! Developing the indigenous skills capacity in good time for the UK

Get the HE/FE sector to show the way (ctd)

! Through HEFCE a real handle on budgets ! Three-year public funding cycles give handle on whole process ! Invaluable source of information for HMT on the scale-up economics ! Philanthropic funding of universities in this cause ! Knowledge transfer: an acknowledged strength of academia ! Many individual VCs enthusiastic and up for it. ! 3B of RDD&D money for ECS Triple Challenge ! HE/FE Sector the Pull-Through Agent for outcomes of R&D ! Push must come from a unified HE/FE sector with supply chain allies.

Seems a win-win-win-win situation to me.


A Local Hobby Horse

In the globalised world, it is global challenges that are coming to the top of the justification for R&D programmes. Making a global difference is beyond any individual. For ETI, LWEC etc, 1B is aside for R&D, the outputs of which must be much more than of 1000 independent 1M R&D projects. Who is going to take the lead on making 1 and 1 and 1 add up to 111? [Those who do, add 108 in value!] Is Cambridge capable of rising to the top, when genuine and deep multidisciplinary teamwork is at odds with the cult of the individual academic researcher that has served this university well for 800 years? If not us, which university will grab the lead, and what will be our relationship with that university? If us, are we really culturally up for it?

Cambridge University Actions on Energy (Paul Hasler)

1: (a) Upgrade the Energy Control in Buildings (b) Collect data and review set points. [Arts and Humanities: 100kW/m2.year for each of gas and electricity Plants cabins: 400kW/m2.year for lights plus almost as much to remove heat!] 2: Incentivise Department to reduce energy consumption A planned allocation of energy with a rebate for underuse and a surcharge for overuse. 3: Increase individual awareness of energy consumption on campus. {1(a) and 3 should save up to 15% of the energy consumption, rising to perhaps 30% with 1(b) and 2} Also the 2050 Working Group


How is Cambridge Unievrsity Doing? CO2 emissions


(3.2) An Urban Local Authority Trajectory (i)

Idea: Develop some model trajectories to describe how an urban local authority might get from here to 2050 meeting the interim and end targets for the ECS challenge.
ECS challenge will be met or missed in the urban environment. Most ambitions of central government are actually delivered at the local level. Many LAs signed up last year to have their VFM etc measured by metrics that include progress on the ECS challenge Mutual scratching of heads of Chief Environmental Officers in absence of a robust trajectory to the 2050 targets We need to develop a few holistic trajectories for energy, waster, air, waste, Take 2010-2050 as eight five-year periods: what measures should be started, continued and completed in each period?

An Urban Local Authority Trajectory (ii)

Decision tool to take account of parallel trajectory of (i) raw cost of energy (ii) degree of decarbonisation of that energy and (iii) local population demographics Prevent all possible lock-ins or lock-outs. No rush for biofuels or microwindmills! At each stage who will be the key players? When will community as opposed to individual action take over? Export and development opportunities overseas. Publish model trajectory for Stern-type critique and modify for local circumstances Extend to Balham, Basingstoke, Bristol, Birmingham and Berkshire.

(3.3) A Retrofit Consortium

Idea: Get holders of large renovation budgets to agree together to

demand and accelerate the market for new higher quality products, installation processes etc.

How do we kick start a totally fragmented, balkanised market/supply chain to get a serious move on the retrofitting agenda for existing buildings? Everyone along the chain is calling for leadership! Public sector (MoD, DH/NHS, LAs, DIUS/DFCS, ) controls spend of ~10Bpa on renovation. These, together with key private sector players private landlords, hotels, supermarkets, the insurance sector are the leaders.

R&DDD lined up and waiting

!Large sums of money corralled for research on energy security, climate mitigation and adaptation and new technologies: over 2.5B in UK, and more in EU. ! Large dispersements to credible consortia on carbon sequestration, renewables, nuclear rebuild, eco-friendly new build, with clear routes to market. ! Retrofitting will miss out a totally balkanised industry sector, not unconnected with cowboys in the public perception no clear pull-through agency. ! Get 10BPa of existing and planned renovation business, in public sector first and then private sector, under one umbrella, to drive retrofitting. ! Work together to establish an escalator of ever improving quality of interventions to buildings to mitigate against and adapt to climate change going forward using aggregated demand as a lever: Technology Strategy Board will co-fund this for us. ! Approach the supply chain and the research community to establish credible bids to secure 10-20% of the funding outlined above. 36

A consortium would:
1: Agree to form an umbrella organisation that will set the pace of the retrofit agenda, by pushing on the supply chain to accelerate improved products and installation procedures. 2.! Stand as the owning organisation and market pull-through agent as the supply chain seeks 250M for RD&D for better products and procedures on our behalf. 3.! Get TSB, the academics and the supply chain to work out for us just how fast we could accelerate the R&D and early uptake of new products and procedures, without losing credibility. 4.! Agree to work on that steeper escalator of virtue. 5.! Drive the market speed, and lower the barrier to new products and procedures, by our aggregated demand, and to get lower prices from volume. 6.! Continue to work independently within budgets and timetables unless clear added advantages of closer harmonisation are identified.

Consortium consists of the owners of renovation budgets. Advised by small panels of experts from domestic and non-domestic sectors. They own and drive the whole chain. Need advanced implementation chain of exemplar partners. Need scale-up chain for early, large wins. Means of keeping up momentum Five year reviews of on-going targets.

Retrofit Consortium Funders, CIRIA, Academia, BRE. etc The whole supply chain

(3.4) Public Attitudes and Behaviour Change

Must reach the stage where profligate use of energy is considered as deeply antisocial. Like drink-driving, smoking in confined public spaces, not wearing seat-belts, etc. Target the young using their own communications. Ready exemplars of alternative good behaviour to be available. Redefine the meaning of Comfort.


Mr Koisumes initiative: public buildings in Tokyo, not cooled below 28C nor heated above 20C Change in business dress code cool biz No robust data on altered worker or IT efficiency CLG announcement in late October 2008: from 221 all year to 232 in summer and 212 in winter. [i.e. 19-25C]
[Expectation: 8% reduction on heating bill and 5% reduction on cooling bill.]

But did you know?

If people have got used to feeling comfortable at 22C, would this measure if implemented backfire in terms of morale, productivity etc? Suggestion that Workplace Health, Safety and Welfare (WHSW) Regulations 1992 has replaced words maximum and minimum with reasonable


[4] Summary

Meeting the triple challenge for existing buildings will be the biggest civil engineering project taken in peacetime. Will it need a war-like footing to succeed (a la Manhattan project)? Considered trajectory worth waiting for instead of a blind rush or a scatter-gun project. Can we have a Pareto analysis of the timely interventions? Academia to show the way. Export and development opportunities for successful actions. A public debate required on the level of spend needed on infrastructure, coming from health and education spend. Our progress will be our ultimate legacy of this age for the future.

Particular Opportunities for Cambridge

Develop a comprehensive university strategy and routemap, and get widespread buy-in Multi-disciplinary teams essential technology on its own nowhere near enough economics no buy in without robust cost-benefit analyses sociology - horse to water, and not drinking psychology huge variations in technology usage politics where is the serious infrastructure debate Demote research that is incapable of rapid scale-up in favour of that which is so capable. Get involved in the early large-scale demonstrators. Glaring shortage of post-occupancy evaluation of new technologies - half the value of the research being missed.

Befriend a policy-maker.

Thank you

Further Discussion