International Grains Council Conseil international des crales Consejo Internacional de Cereales GMI (08/09) 27 (31 December 2008)

IGC GRAIN MARKET INDICATORS

Week ending: Tuesday 30 December 2008

WHEAT
Export prices (fob, US$ per ton) Argentina (Up River) Canada CWRS 13.5% (St. Law.) EU (UK) Feed grade EU (France) grade 1 a) EU (France) grade 1 EU (Germany) B quality Black Sea Feed Black Sea Milling US DNS 14% (PNW) US No 2 HRW 11.5% (Gulf) US No 2 SRW (ord) (Gulf) US No 2 SW (PNW) IGC Wheat Price Index
b)

c/b

US: w heat futures - Mar

30 Dec Jan Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan 190 345 160 136 193 197 115 170 322 258 209 228 2,307

23 Dec 185 344 151 134 187 191 110 160 314 248 199 215 2,251

year ago 327 486 270 390 386 450 389 368 485 3,838

700 650 600 550 500 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30

CM E KCB T M GE

c/b

CME (SRW) wheat futures

650 600 550 500 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 Mar May

a) Fob Rouen, euros/ton. b) As calculated by IGC for previous Friday. For composition, see Grain Market Report.

World wheat export prices crept higher in quiet activity. In the US, futures were supported by gains in soyabeans and weakness in the dollar. However, trading was mostly light and two-sided, featuring year-end positioning. In the EU, slight gains in local prices were accentuated by currency movements, pushing dollar export values around $6 higher. Harvesting in Argentina reached its final stages. Because of even lower than expected yields, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut its production forecast by 0.4m t, to 9.3m (16.3m). Rains in Australia continued to disrupt combining. The government of India approved the export of 0.6m t to Afghanistan. Pakistan tendered (10 Jan) for 250,000 t US white wheat. US maize futures recorded modest gains in two-sided trade. Light technical buying, spillover from soyabeans and concerns about dry weather in parts of S America lifted the market before the weekend, although gains were reversed by profit taking and losses in equities markets on Monday. Positioning and a weaker US dollar provided some support yesterday. Gulf premiums were firmed by slow farmer selling, with export quotations up $1, at $176 fob. There were reports that China would soon issue 0.5m t of maize export licences as part of efforts to support domestic prices. Activity in world barley markets remained quiet. At 104 (delivered Rouen), EU (France) domestic feed barley values were unchanged from a week ago, but due to currency developments, dollar-denominated export quotations were $2 higher, at around $159 fob. Black Sea prices were steady, at around $130 fob. US soyabean futures initially rallied to 11-week highs, supported by crop concerns in Argentina and rising crude oil values, but year-end profit-taking trimmed gains. Despite a stronger C$ and increased farmer selling, Canadian canola futures edged higher, boosted by strength in crude oil and soyabeans, the Mar 09 contract at C$403.50. In Malaysia, strong exports and falling stocks lifted palm oil futures sharply higher, to MYR1,671/ton ($480). Rice export quotations were nominally unchanged, in very light trade, benchmark Thai 100% B at around $537 fob (Bangkok). Egypt announced plans to resume rice exports from April in response to sharply lower domestic prices. The Panamax ocean freight sector was marginally higher before the holiday closures last week due to slightly increased chartering activity, Atlantic rates to FE Asia at around $9,000 daily. In the Pacific, a voyage from Japan to Malaysia was booked at $5,570 daily. However, the outlook for early January is still seen as pessimistic due to poor mineral demand and surplus tonnage. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) closed at 774 points on 24 December, the last day for 2008, a 92% drop from a year ago (9,143).

$ /t

US: w heat export prices

$ /t

300 250 200 150 100 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 SRW HRW

210 200

EU: w heat export prices

$ /t

360 350

Canada: w heat export price CWRS 13.5% St. Law .

US $ 1 = Euro A ustralia $

30 D ec 23 D ec 0.707 1 .446 1 .225 3.452 2.330 0.71 7 1 .467 1 6 .21 3.429 2.377

190
340

180 170 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 France Germany

330 320 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30

Canada $ A rg. P eso B razil Real

1 Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5AE Telephone 44 (0) 20 7513 1122, Fax 44 (0) 20 7513 0630, E-mail:igc-fac@igc.org.uk

IGC Grain Market Indicators - (GMI 08/09) 27

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MAIZE (CORN)
Export prices (fob, US$ per ton) US 3YC (Gulf) Argentina (Up River) Brazil (Paranagua) IGC Maize Price Index Jan Jan Jan
a)

30 Dec 176 160 157 2,401

23 Dec 175 159 152 2,216

year ago 202 175 -

c/b

US: CME corn futures

450 425 400 375 350 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 Mar May

a) As calculated by IGC Secretariat for previous Friday. For index composition, see Grain Market Report.

BARLEY
Export prices (fob, US$ per ton) EU (France) Feed Australia (Adelaide) Feed Black Sea Feed EU (France) Spring Malting (Rouen) Australia (Adelaide) Malting Canada (St. Lawrence) Malting Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 30 Dec 159 132 130 224 260 23 Dec 157 130 130 189 225 261 year ago 355 287 457 344 371
$/t

EU: barley export prices

170 160 150 140 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 France Germany

OTHER GRAINS
Export prices (fob, US$ per ton) SORGHUM US (Gulf) Argentina (Up River) 30 Dec 23 Dec year ago

c/b

US: CME oats futures

250 240 230 220 210

Jan Dec

166 -

165 -

206 -

200 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 Mar May

OILSEEDS
Export prices (fob, US$ per ton) SOYABEANS 2Y, US (Gulf) Argentina (Up River) Brazil (Paranagua) 30 Dec 23 Dec year ago
c/b

US: CME soyabean futures

1,000 950

Jan Jan Jan

379 371 375

362 355 360

447 433 442

900 850 800 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 Jan Mar

RICE

a)

Export prices (fob, US$ per ton) Thailand 100% Grade B Vietnam 5% Broken Vietnam 25% Broken India 25% Broken Pakistan 25% Broken Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec

30 Dec 537 415 323 328

23 Dec 537 415 323 328

year ago 372 331 344

c/cwt

US: CM E rough rice

1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 Jan Mar

a) Provided, in part, by Jackson Son & Co (London) Ltd, other trader quotations and industry sources.

OCEAN FREIGHT RATES

US$ per ton (heavy grains) US Gulf to EU (B) (1) US Gulf to Japan (B) (1) (2) US Gulf to Korea, Rep (B) (1) Brazil to EU (A) (3)
1) Over 50,000 t. (2) Heavy grain. (3) 10-15,000 t.

30 Dec 17.00 24.00 25.00 26.00

23 Dec 17.00 24.00 25.00 26.00

year ago 83.50 122.00 123.00 93.00

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) 900 850 800 750 700 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30

The report is based on both official and trade sources. While every attempt is made to interpret information accurately, full reliability is not guaranteed. Comments and statistics are subject to regular revision. No part of this report may be reproduced without permission from, and attribution to, the International Grains Council. 2008