Indonesian Forestry Outlook 2020

Pusat Rencana dan Statistik Kehutanan

Departemen Kehutanan Republik Indonesia

Outline
Introduction Current state of forests and forestry Factors that influence the future state of

forests and forestry

Probable scenarios and their implications The State of Indonesia forests and forestry in

2020
Recommended strategic actions and policies

Introduction:
Methodology
Determining involved forestry experts, and collecting and

clarifying preliminary data

Identifying forest resources potential and issues and developing

a base analysis that picture the current state of Indonesia forests and forestry
Conducting two focus group discussions to get important feed

backs and to identify factors that influence the future state of forests and forestry as well as to develop probable scenarios and their implication
Writing a draft report that pictures the future state of Indonesia

forests and forestry in 2020, and contain recommended strategic actions and policies that need to be followed up
Conducting two a one-day workshops that discusses the draft

report before completing the Indonesia Forestry Outlook 2020.

Current State of Forests and Forestry

Trends in forest resource Wood and wood products Wood as a source of energy Non-Wood forest products The Service functions of forests

Key issues

Land Use in Indonesia

(Total Land Area 187.9 million ha)

Non-Forest Area 28%

Protection Forest 16%

Conservation Forest 11% Conversion Production Forest 12% Limited Production Forest 14%

Permanent Production Forest 19%

Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

Land Cover by Island

Bali & Nusa Tenggara

Forested Land

Jawa Maluku
Islands

Not Forested Land No Data

Sulawesi Sumatera Kalimantan Papua

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

Million ha

Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

Land Cover by Function

(Total Land Area 187.9 million ha)
Other Land Area (APL) Conversion Production Forest Permanent Production Forest Limited Production Forest Protection Forest

8.0

44.2

2.2

10.7

11.1

1.0

20.6

12.6

2.0

18.2

5.8

1.7

22.1

5.6

2.3

Conservation Forest
0.0

14.4

4.0 1.5

Forested Land Not Forested Land No Data

10.0

20.0

30.0 Million ha

40.0

50.0

60.0

Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

Forest Area, by Function and Island

(Total Forest Area 133.6 million Ha)
45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0
Million Ha

Conversion Production Forest Permanent Production Forest Limited Production Forest Protection Forest Conservation Forest

25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Papua Kalimantan Sumatera Sulawesi Maluku Jawa Bali & Nusa Tenggara

Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

Growing Stock of Indonesia Forests

Growing Stock (M3/Ha) Commercial All species species 56.5 152.0 51.3 103.2 97.3 97.3 26.6 55.5 63.5 171.1 25.0 56.5 13.0 46.5 47.7 146.8 26.6 82.2 11.5 47.4 32.2 127.6 23.1 53.6 13.0 38.0

Forest Function

Forest Condition Primary forest Secondary forest Plantation Forest Damaged forest Primary forest Secondary forest Damaged forest Primary forest Secondary forest Damaged forest Primary forest Secondary forest Damaged forest

Production Forest

Protection Forest

Conservation Forest Convertible Production Forest

Source: Calculated based on Neraca Sumberdaya Hutan 2002 (MOF, 2004)

Change in forest cover in 2000-2003

ISLAND SUMATERA A. Forest Area B. Non-Forest Area Total JAVA A. Forest Area B. Non-Forest Area Total KALIMANTAN A. Forest Area B. Non-Forest Area Total SULAWESI A. Forest Area B. Non-Forest Area Total BALI & NUSATENGGARA A. Forest Area B. Non-Forest Area Total MALUKU A. Forest Area B. Non-Forest Area Total PAPUA A. Forest Area B. Non-Forest Area Total FORESTED LAND 2000 2003 29.4 3.4 32.9 14.0 3.7 17.7 49.4 6.2 55.5 38.2 6.7 44.9 17.9 9.1 27.1 46.0 2.2 48.2 73.7 1.5 75.2 44.7 4.3 49.0 28.7 2.4 31.1 16.2 6.9 23.1 48.0 5.3 53.2 42.5 5.6 48.1 19.3 17.6 36.9 49.3 2.3 51.6 77.9 1.5 79.4 45.7 4.2 50.0 PERCENTAGE OF FOREST COVER NON FORESTED LAND NO DATA 2000 2003 2000 2003 24.3 32.1 56.4 8.9 70.0 79.2 19.5 15.3 34.8 8.9 25.5 34.6 17.0 45.2 62.2 21.5 4.6 26.2 10.8 0.9 11.7 17.0 22.0 39.0 28.8 35.5 64.3 6.7 69.3 76.0 25.1 17.1 42.2 12.0 28.3 40.3 15.1 40.6 55.6 25.7 5.7 31.4 14.7 1.0 15.7 20.8 23.5 44.3 6.9 3.8 10.7 0.5 2.7 3.2 7.0 2.6 9.7 15.5 5.0 20.5 4.1 6.6 10.7 23.6 2.1 25.6 12.8 0.2 13.1 9.2 2.8 12.0 3.3 1.3 4.6 0.5 0.4 0.9 3.5 1.1 4.6 8.0 3.6 11.6 4.7 2.8 7.5 16.0 1.0 17.0 4.8 0.1 4.9 4.5 1.2 5.7 TOTAL 2000 60.6 39.4 100.0 23.4 76.6 100.0 75.9 24.1 100.0 62.7 37.3 100.0 39.0 61.0 100.0 91.1 8.9 100.0 97.3 2.7 100.0 70.9 29.1 100.0 2003 60.8 39.2 100.0 23.4 76.6 100.0 76.6 23.4 100.0 62.5 37.5 100.0 39.1 60.9 100.0 91.1 8.9 100.0 97.3 2.7 100.0 71.1 28.9 100.0

INDONESIA
A. Forest Area B. Non-Forest Area Total

Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

Production Forest Area by Forest Condition

Production Forest Area (60.9 million ha)
No Data 6% Primary Forest 24% Not Forested Land 30%

Plantation 4%

Secondary Forest 36%

Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

Production Forest Area by Condition and Major Island

Production Forest Area (60.9 millions ha)
Bali & Nusa Tenggara Jawa Maluku Sulawesi Sumatera Kalimantan Papua
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Primary Forest Secondary Forest Plantation Not Forested Land No Data

Million ha
Source: Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2005

The Development of Forest Concessionaires, 1993-2007

70.00 Area (Million ha) Unit 700

60.00

600

50.00

500

Million ha

40.00

400

30.00

300

20.00

200

10.00

100

0.00
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

0 Year

Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data, MOF, various years

Unit

Distribution of Forest Concessionaires in Natural Production Forest as of August 2007, by company type
100% 90%
87 6.6 8 0.8

80% 70%
1.0 13
Joint-Venture State-Shared Equity State-Owned Private

Percentage

60% 50% 40%

215

20.4

30% 20% 10% 0% Unit Area (Million Ha)

Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data 2007 ( MOF 2007)

The Development of Industrial Plantation, 1989-2006

250 2,000 1,800

1,400 150 1,200 1,000 100 800 600 50 400 200 0

19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06

Year
Annual-Pulpwood Cumulative-Pulpwood Annual-Construction wood Cumulative-Construction wood

Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data, MOF, various years

Cumulative (1000 Ha)

200

1,600

Annual (1000 Ha)

Yield and rotation of Indonesia's fast growing species

Species Acacia auriculiformis Acacia magnium Agathis loranthifolia Paraserianthes falcataria Anthocephalus cadamba Araucaria cuninghamii Cassia siamea 1 Casuarina equisetifolia Dalbergia latifolia Eucalyptus deglupta Gmelina arborea Maesopsis eminii Musanga smithii Pinus merkusii Pinus caribaea Sw ietenia macrophylla Sesbania grandiflora
1

Mean annual increment at an operationas scale (m3/ha/year) 12 - 23 46 - 50 27.7 - 24.9 37.4 20 - 24 17.0 - 18.5 15 10 - 20 23.7 24.5 - 34 35 13 - 34 14 - 19 19.9 - 22.4 24 15 - 20 25

Age (year) 8 -1 7 9 30 - 50 15 5 - 10 9.5 17 7 - 10 40 9 7 10 9.5 15 - 25 7 40 - 50 3

in ton/ha/year
Source: Manual Kehutanan (MOF, 1992)

Certified Forest Management Units in Indonesia Under LEI Timber Certification Scheme as of September 2007
FMU
PT. Diamond Raya Timber PT. Intraca Wood Manufacturing

Gross Area (ha)

90,957 250,000

Issuance Year
2001 2001

Forest Type
Natural Forest Natural Forest

PT. Inhutani I, Unit Labanan

PT. Sari Bumi Kusuma PT. Erna Djuliawati PT. Sumalindo Lestari Jaya II KPS Ds. Selopuro-Wonogiri KPS Ds. Sumberejo-Wonogiri Koperasi Wana Manunggal Lestari Wono Lestari Makmur Catur Giri Manunggal Total Source: The Indonesian Ecolabeling Institute

82,240
147,600 184,206 269,660.10 262.77 547.77 815.18 1,179.00 2,434.24 1,046,098.13

2001
2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2006 2007 2007 -

Natural Forest
Natural Forest Natural Forest Natural Forest Community-based Forest Community-based Forest Community-based Forest Community-based Forest Community-based Forest -

Community Forest (Hutan Rakyat - private lands )

Community Forest or Hutan Rakyat
(Total area 1.57 millions ha)
Maluku 1% Papua 1%

Sulawesi 13% Kalimantan 9%

Sumatera 14%

Bali dan Nusa Tenggara 12%

Jawa 50%

Source: Direktorat Bina Usaha Perhutanan Rakyat (2004)

Community forest plantations are about 124.467 ha (Hutan Kemasyarakatan - public lands )
Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data, MOF, various years

Deforestation
4.00 3.50 3.00
Hectare (millions)

2.83

2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 1982-1990 1990-1997 1997-2000 2000-2005 0.90 1.08 1.80

Source: Bureau of Forest Planning, Ministry of Forestry, 2007

Indonesia Log production in 1994-2006, by source

(Changes in source and quality)
35.0 30.0
Volume (Million M3)

25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000*)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Year
Natural Production Forest ( RKT ) Plantation (Perum Perhutani) Conversion Production Forest (IPK) Industrial Plantation Forest (HTI) Izin Sah Lainnya ( ISL )

Source: Executive, Indonesia Strategic Forestry Data 2007 ( MOF 2007)

Forest Area and log production over the period 19942006 by Major Island
100%

22%
80%

7% 3% 3%

5% 8%
60%

41%
40%

Papua 39% Maluku Sulawesi Kalimantan Bali dan Nusa Tenggara 0% 9% Jawa Sumatera

Share (%)

20%

2% 3% 20%

39%

0% Are a Log production

Sources: Areas were calculated based on Rekalkulasi Penutupan Lahan Indonesia 2005, Centre of Forest Inventory and Mapping, 2005; Log production based on Indonesia Forestry Statistics, 1994-2006

State of Indonesia wood products Industry in 2006

Wood industry

Item

Sawnwood & Woodworking

1600 (602); 90% are SME 10.49 4.46 2.3

Plywood & Veneer

130 (83) 11.09 4.66 2.91

Pulp
13 6.45 5.67 2.80

Furniture (2005)
Mostly Home industry

Number of Company (Unit) Installed Capacity (mn M3 or mn Adt) Production (mn M3 or mn Adt) Export Quantity (mn M3 or mn ton) Export Value (US$bn) Export destinations

0.8

1.29
EU, USA, Japan, China

1.30
Japan, USA, UK

1.12
China, S.Korea, Italy, Japan

1.9
USA, Japan, Holland, France

Sources:BRIK (2006), MOF (2007); APKI (2007)

Rapid growth and structural change in Indonesian wood industry during 1980-2006
25.0

20.0

Million M3 or Adt

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0 1980

1993

2006

Year
Sawnwood Plywood Veneer Block Board Wood Working Particle Board Chipwood Pulp

Sources: Sawnwood dan Plywood+Veneer (FAO 2008); Woodworking+Block+Particle (MOF 2007); Pulp (APKI 2007)

Change in Indonesia wood industry structure as indicated by round wood equivalent (RWE) consumption
100%

80%

RWE Consumption

60%

40%

Pulp
20%

Woodworking+Block+Particleboard+Chipwood Plywood+Veneer Sawnwood

0% 1980 1993 2006

Year

Sources: Sawnwood dan Plywood+Veneer (FAO 2008); Woodworking+Block+Particle (MOF 2007); Pulp (APKI 2007)

Declining in utilization rate of Indonesia wood products industry capacity (1987-2006)

100% 90% 80%

Utilization rate (%)

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1987 2006

Year
Sawnwood Plywood+Veneer Pulp

Sources: Sawnwood dan Plywood+Veneer (FAO 2008); Woodworking+Block+Particle (MOF 2007); Pulp (APKI 2007)

Indonesia Export Values of Wood Products (1980-2006)

6,000 5,000
Million USD

4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1980

Wood Charcoal Pulp and Paper Wood Based Panel Sawnwood Chips and Particles

1993 Year

2006

Source: Computes based on FAO (2008)

Indonesia Import Values of Wood Products (1980-2006)

1,200 1,000
Million USD

800 600 400 200 0 1980

Wood Charcoal Pulp and Paper Wood Based Panel Sawnwood Chips and Particles

1993 Year

2006

Source: Computes based on FAO (2008)

Indonesia's Shares to the World Wood Products Exports (1980-2006)

35.0% 30.0%
Percentage (%)

Chips and Particles Sawnwood Wood Based Panel Pulp and Paper Wood Charcoal

25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1980 1993 2006

Year
Source: Computes based on FAO (2008)

Biomass: 35%-37% of Final energy consumption Wood energy: 80% of Biomass energy consumption

Source: Statistics of Energy Economics (2007)

Source: Statistics of Energy Economics (2007)

Non-Wood Forest Products

Total Exports Value (USD 2.62 billions)
Wood charcoal 10% Semi-finished rattan products 9%

Terpentin 3% Bahan Penyamak/Gambir/T annin 2%

Other 9%

Sirlak, Getah dan Damar 73%

Rattan handycraft 2% Fauna 1% Spiritus Oil resin 0% Flora Ter Kayu 0% 0%

Sources: Indonesia Forestry Statistics, MOF, various years

Conservation Forest
Terresterial Conservation Area
Papua

Maluku

Sulaw esi

Kalimantan

Bali dan Nusa Tenggara

Jaw a

Sumatera

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Million Ha

Cagar Alam (Strict Nature Reserve) Taman Wisata Alam (Nature Recreational Park) Taman Nasional (National Park)

Suaka Margasatwa (Wildlife Sanctuary) Taman Buru (Game Hunting Park) Taman Hutan Raya (Grand Forest Park)

Source: Indonesia Forestry Statistics 2006 (MOF 2007)

Conservation Forest
Marine Conservation Area
Papua

Maluku

Sulaw esi

Kalimantan

Bali dan Nusa Tenggara

Jaw a

Sumatera

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Million Ha

Cagar Alam (Strict Nature Reserve) Taman Wisata Alam (Nature Recreational Park)

Suaka Margasatwa (Wildlife Sanctuary) Taman Nasional (National Park)

Source: Indonesia Forestry Statistics 2006 (MOF 2007)

Total Number of Visitors

2,000

Thousand people

1,500

Taman Nasional (National Park) Taman Hutan Raya (Grand Forest Park) Taman Wisata Alam (Nature Recreational Park)

1,000

500

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Total Number of Foreign Visitors

200

Thousand people

150

100

50

0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Year

Source: Indonesia Forestry Statistics 2006 (MOF 2007)

Key issues
Illegal logging and trade

Revitalization of forest industry

Deforestation and natural forest degradation Poverty alleviation of communities around forests

Land tenurial disputes, especially related to customary law communities

Establishment of community forest Establishment of forest management unit

Improvement of forest governance

Improvement of human resource quantity and quality in forestry sector Improvement of forestry research and development functions

Factors that influence the future state of forests and forestry: Distribution of population, forestry and poverty
Forest, Rural Pop'n, & Poverty Indicators
80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 1 Sumatera 2 Java 3 Kalimantan 4 Sulawesi 5 Bali & NTT 6 Maluku 7 Papua INDONESIA

% State Forest w/ Actual Cover % Rural Pop'n (% Pop'n Perdesaan) BPS 2003
Source: BPS (2003) and World Bank (2006)

% Prov Area w/ Actual Forest Cover (incl. private) % in Poverty (% Penduduk Miskin) BPS 2003

Factors that influence the future state of forests and forestry: The political and institutional environment
There have been important and growing changes in

regulatory structures, transparency, scrutiny and involvement of civil society in Indonesia.

The spotlight on illegal logging has intensified. Anti-corruption forces in government forestry agencies,

private industry, NGOs and the media are working together against the entrenched special interests of the past, which continue to wield great influence.
New laws are being passed or considered on

transparency, conflict resolution, agrarian reform, natural resource management and civil service reform.
It is recognized that the forestry policy environment is

multi-sector in character and requires interdepartmental and multi-stakeholder approaches

Factors that influence the future state of forests and forestry: Economic changes
Gross Domestic Product: 3.3% - 4.3% (1993 -2005)

Foreign Exchange: US$ 6.24 bn or 11.7% (1997) , US$

5.41 bn or 6.1% (2006)

Government Revenue:Rp 1.16 tn or 1.7% Rp 3.37 tn

or 0.7% (1993-2005)
Direct Employment: 500 600 thousand employees

Factors that influence the future state of forests and forestry: Environmental issues and policies
Encroachment and poaching due to weak law

enforcement, which even further complicates by the decentralization process

Forest conversion to agriculture or settlements, which is

part of the issue of forest degradation

Forest and land fires
Low environmental awareness, which is an essential

part of biodiversity conservation and environmental disasters

Global sustainable forestry management and climate

change issues i.e. CDM, REDD

Probable scenarios and their implications: Rationale for scenario definition

Scenarios analysis is developed based on two most

uncertain or unpredictable variables in Indonesia: the governance and economic development factors
By doing this, policy measures can be developed that

take the main risks to the sector into account

This also provides an opportunity to reflect on forestry

as one of many sectors within a dynamic economy

Probable scenarios and their implications: Scenarios

Focus on total degraded forest area because of the vast

land area involved (33.4 million ha), the rapid rate of change of land status from forested to non-forested, the relatively unmanaged status and the most obvious and logical places to begin to think about rationalizing the forest estate and allowing more equitable and pro-poor access and activities
Rehabilitation and plantation development are therefore

of central importance to the forestry sector in Indonesia given the reduction in supply from natural forests
Two major forestry policy objectives: forest rehabilitation

and plantation development were then considered within the two factors chosen: (a) effectiveness of policy implementation and institutions, and (b) economic growth rate

Probable scenarios and their implications: Scenarios

Fast economic growth 2. Unsustainable growth Forest rehabilitation unlikely Development of privately owned plantations possible but some government support needed. Little chance of development of community plantations although economic development may help resolve land disputes. Slow economic growth 1. Socio-economic development stalls Forest rehabilitation unlikely Plantation development unlikely. 4. Sustainable development Forest rehabilitation and plantation development proceed on the basis of effective policy implementation and sufficient investment.

3. Low-growth development Forest rehabilitation still possible but only with policy measures based on allocation of land and rights rather than economic incentives. Effective policy implementation

Poor policy implementation

Probable scenarios and their implications: Scenario Analysis Approach

PLANTATIONS

FOREST AREA

WOOD PROCESSING

PRICES & COSTS

Data Sources Neraca Sumber Daya Hutan Statistik Kehutanan and BPS Respected published sources Value (monetized) measures Timber harvest & processing Environmental services lost Production on alt. land uses

INDICATORS

Forest Areas Prod. Volume Revenue, Profit, Taxes

ENVIRON. COSTS EMPLOYMENT ALT. LAND USES

Physical measures Forest area & planting by forest type Timber harvest & volume of processed wood Gross Revenue, Tax Revenue, Profit Numbers of people employed

The State of Indonesia forests and forestry in 2020

Forest resources Wood and wood products Wood as a source of energy

Future of non-wood forest products

Service functions of forests

Social functions of forests

Forest resources:
The Current and Future State, by forest type and scenario
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison Areas of Different Types of Forest
140.00 120.00 100.00
Million ha

80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 Forest in 2006 Primary Forest S1 Secondary Forest S2 Plantations S3 SILIN S4 Non-Forested

Forest resources:
Trend of total damaged forest areas during the period 2006-2020
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison Trend of Damaged Forest Area
65 60
Millions of Hectares

55 50 45 40 35 30 25 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

S1 S2 S3 S4

Forest resources:
Trend of total primary forest areas during the period 2006-2020
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison Trend of Primary Forest Area
45

Millions of Hectares

40

35

30

S1 S2 S3 S4
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

25 2018 2020

Forest resources:
The forest resource under Sustainable development scenario (S4)
Convertible Production Forest
Primary forest
5.3 5.3 12.2

Secondary forest Not forested TPTII System

Conservation Forest

10.1

5.5

3.9

Pulpwood Plantation Community Timber Plantation Timber Plantation

Protection Forest

13.3

10.5

5.6

Production Forest

8.5

31.0

10.7

0.63.3 3.2 1.7

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Million ha

Wood and wood products:

Annual projection of timber production 2007-2020
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison Trend of Timber Production
125

100

S1 S2 S3 S4

Millions of M3

75

50

25

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Wood and wood products:

Annual projection of pulpwood production 2007-2020
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Physical Indicator Comparison Trend of Pulpwood Production
125

100

S1 S2 S3 S4

Millions of M3

75

50

25

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Wood and wood products:

Product, consumption, exports, and growth
The annual production and consumption growths of

plywood, block board, sawnwood, and pulp would be increased in the range of 10%-15%, 28%-34%, 17%23%, and 9%-10%, respectively; while, their annual export growths would be increased in range of 12%17%, 28%-34%, 17%-23%, and 7%to- 8%, respectively.
Plywood, veneer, and block board industry would still

face a log deficit until the year of 2017, but, they could expand their capacities by 45% for plywood, veneer, and block board industry and by 32% for sawnwood industry, if timber production level in the year 2020 is achieved.
Pulp industry could expand its installed capacity since

the year of 2009 and it could be even tripled if timber production level in the year 2020 is achieved.

Wood as a source of energy:

Projection of Indonesia energy mix (National Energy Policy, KEN)

Non-wood forest products and forest services:

Changes in environmental costs and forest stock value 2006-2020
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Comparison of Value Indicators Environmental Costs & Changes in Forest Stock Value
10,000 8,000 6,000

NPV Millions USD

4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000 -8,000

S1

S2

S3
Environmental Costs

S4

Change in Plantation Forest Stock (Value) Change in Natural Forest Stock (Value)

Change in natural forest stocks implies change in natural forest capacity to provide NWFP and forest services so the future of non-wood forest products and forest services were addressed through estimating changes in natural forest stock values Over the period 2006-2020, total changes in environmental costs and forest stock value ranges from US$3.91 billions to US$7.48 billions, respectively. Of which, +US$0.25 billions to +US$0.29 billions is due to changes in natural forest stock value given the future state of Indonesia forest resources in 2020

Social functions of forests:

Direct employment generation over the period 2006-2020
Forestry Outlook Scenarios: Comparing Employment Potential (but not indirect jobs)
Average Jobs per year (in 1000)

1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 S1 Logging Ind. Blockboard ind. S2 Timber plant. Sawnwood ind. S3 Pulpwood plant. Pulp ind. S4 Plywood ind.

Given the future state of Indonesia forest resources in 2020, there would be also direct employment generation in the range of 675-836 thousands even though there may be substantially larger numbers of people who are forest dependent and people who work in small-scale sawmills and other processed wood industries

Recommended strategic actions and policies:

Strategic actions and policies focus on economic development

and poverty alleviation options in degraded Production Forest, and promotion of environmental service delivery in degraded Protection Forest and Conservation Forest
Options for economic development and poverty alleviation: Promoting community-company partnerships to open new

kinds of benefit sharing for timber production to planting more trees for production/timber uses
Promoting Community forestry, social forestry, cooperatives

and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)

Opening space for communities and smallholders to be

involved in forest utilization and management with longer time horizons

Providing technical assistance on management, models, and

cross-learning

Recommended strategic actions and policies:

Options for producing environmental services and benefits:

Rehabilitating steep slopes and riparian land

Supporting land re-classification that harmonizes

slope/condition with function

Reconfirming steep areas as watershed protection forests, in

collaboration with local stakeholders and governments

Considering high conservation value forests within the

protection forest areas as candidate areas for reallocation into conservation areas, especially if they are part of critical wildlife corridors or within the range of endangered or endemic species

Recommended strategic actions and policies:

Options for Improving Governance and Management:

Supporting Forest Monitoring and Assessment System

(FOMAS) to improve transparency and rule of law

Building capacity to carry out law enforcement Amending national laws and regulations to strengthen law

enforcement efforts
Prosecuting those behind major forest harvesting,

processing and transportation crimes to improve law enforcement

Reducing impacts of land clearing and the risks of fire Defining and marking boundaries to prevent encroachment

and allow community self-policing

Recommended strategic actions and policies:

Options for Improving Governance and Management:

Developing and implementing a mechanism in all levels of

government to address concerns, resolve conflicts, process grievances, settle claims, and compensate for loses
Supporting institutional development to help clarify roles and

responsibilities for district/province governments in management, implementation, licensing, and monitoring activities on forestlands
Capacity building in regional government forestry

bureaucracies
Developing community-oriented and collaborative

management approaches to promote, establish, support and sustain dialogue and decision processes on the future organization and management of the forestry sector