Energy Policy 38 (2010) 61806193

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Energy Policy
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Greenhouse gas emissions in China 2007: Inventory and inputoutput analysis

G.Q. Chen n, Bo Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Turbulence and Complex Systems, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, PR China

a r t i c l e in f o
Article history: Received 9 February 2010 Accepted 2 June 2010 Available online 17 June 2010 Keywords: Greenhouse gas emissions Carbon emission inventory Inputoutput analysis

a b s t r a c t
For greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the Chinese economy in 2007 with the most recent statistics availability, a concrete inventory covering CO2, CH4, and N2O is composed and associated with an inputoutput analysis to reveal the emission embodiment in nal consumption and international trade. The estimated total direct GHG emission amounts to 7456.12 Mt CO2-eq by the commonly referred IPCC global warming potentials, with 63.39% from energy-related CO2, 22.31% from non-energy-related CO2, 11.15% from CH4 and 3.15% from N2O. Responsible for 81.32% of the total GHG emissions are the ve sectors of the Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply, Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals, Nonmetal Mineral Products, Agriculture, and Coal Mining and Dressing, with distinctive emission structures. The sector of Construction holds the top GHG emissions embodied in both domestic production and consumption, and the emission embodied in gross capital formation is prominently more than those in other components of the nal consumption characterized by extensive investment in contrast to limited household consumption. China is a net exporter of embodied GHG emissions, with emissions embodied in exports of 3060.18 Mt CO2-eq, in magnitude up to 41.04% of the total direct emission. & 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Among the largest carbon dioxide emitters in the world (IEA, 2009), China has been considered responsible for two thirds of the global increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions of 3.1% in 2007 (Yan and Yang, 2010). Though the Chinese government has committed to cut the carbon dioxide emission per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), by 4045% by 2020 against the 2005 level (Xinhua net, 2009), in the future the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions in China is expected to increase further, due to the projected lasting economic growth and increase in energy demand and household consumption. Non-CO2 emissions are also remarkably important, as illustrated by the global inventory for 2004 with CH4 comprising 14.3% of the total anthropogenic GHG emission (IPCC, 2007). According to the Initial National Communication on Climate Change of China (INCCCC, 2004), the GHG emission inventory for China 1994 reported that Chinas GHG emissions in 1994 totaled 3650 million tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2-eq), of which CO2, CH4, and N2O contributed 73.05%, 19.73%, and 7.22%, respectively. Only considering the CO2 emissions cannot reect the real situation and full-scale picture of Chinas GHG emissions,

Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: gqchen@pku.edu.cn, gqchen_pku@yahoo.com (G.Q. Chen).

especially in terms of sectoral structure and embodiment in nal demand and international trade, and inclusive account of all the main GHG emissions in China remains to be carried out with more strength consistent with recent socio-economic development. The direct anthropogenic GHG emissions in China have been widely explored. Early in 2005, China produced 2.2 billion tons of coal which represents 37% of total coal production in the world and accounts for 75.9% and 70% of Chinas total primary energy production and consumption, respectively (Cui, 2007). Over the years, the coal dominated energy and power structure has instigated a large number of studies on CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in China (e.g., IEA, 2009; Ji and Chen, 2010; Liu et al., 2007; Peters et al., 2006; Wei et al., 2007; Yan and Yang, 2010; Zhang, 2000; Zhang et al., 2009). Notably, the calculation procedure provided in Peters et al. (2006) has been followed by Xu et al. (2009) and Yan and Yang (2010) in composing Chinese CO2 emission inventories. Meanwhile, China is the largest producer of rice grain with the worlds second-largest area of rice paddies and has a ourishing livestock production with a rapid increase in livestock numbers and the largest meat and egg yields in the world. In recent years, many empirical studies have focused on the estimation of CH4, and N2O emissions from agricultural activities (e.g., Cai, 1999; Cao et al., 1995; Guo and Zhou, 2007; Huang et al., 2006; Liu et al., 2000; Song et al., 1996; Verburg and Denier, 2001; Wang, 2001; Xing and Yan, 1999;

0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.06.004

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Yamaji et al., 2003; Yan et al., 2003; Zheng et al., 2004; Zhou et al., 2007; Zou et al., 2010), fugitive CH4 emissions from coal mining (e.g., Bibler et al., 1998; Li and Hu, 2008; Yang, 2009; Yuan et al., 2006; Zheng, 2002), and total CH4 emissions in China (e.g., EPA, 2006; Khalil et al., 1993; Wang et al., 1993; Zhang and Chen, 2010a; Zhang et al., 1999). Many concrete efforts have been made to account GHG emissions from other sources such as waste treatment (e.g., Gao et al., 2006; Hou et al., 2006; Xu, 1997). In particular, GHG emission inventories of China in 1994 (INCCCC, 2004), 2005 (Cai, 2009; Chen et al., 2010), and 2006 (Zhang and Chen, 2010b) have been provided. Inputoutput embodiment analysis which facilitates a deeper appreciation of the sectoral total emission requirements in terms of both the direct, visible and indirect, hidden emission costs (Leontief, 1970; Miller and Blair, 2009), has been popular as a main frontier method for benchmarking GHG emissions embodied in nal consumption and international trade, as indicated by the rapid increase in the number of studies using different input output models for several single countries (e.g., Andrew and Forgie, 2008; Chung et al., 2009; Ghertner and Fripp, 2007; Lenzen, 1998; Limmeechokchai and Suksuntornsiri, 2007; Maenp a and Siikavira ta, 2007; Weber and Matthews, 2008) as well as multiple countries and regions (e.g., Chen et al., 2009; Lenzen et al., 2007; Liu and Wang, 2009; Peters and Hertwich, 2008; Weber and Matthews, 2007; Wiedmann, 2009; Wiedmann et al., 2007), especially in CO2 emissions with a single country framework due to its empirical applicability (e.g., for Japan see Kondo and Moriguchi, 1998; for Brazil see Machado et al., 2001; for Denmark see Munksgaard and Pedersen, 2001; for Spanish see Labandeira and Labeaga, 2002; Roca and Serrano, 2007; Sanchez Choliz and Duarte, 2004; for Sweden see Kander and Lindmark, 2006; for Italy see Mongelli et al., 2006; for Norway see Peters and Hertwich, 2006; for Turkey see Tunc et al., 2007). As to Chinas GHG emissions, much of the existing research has applied the inputoutput model to perform embodiment analysis of CO2 emissions. Prominent studies about Chinas CO2 emissions were conducted by Weber, Peters and their colleagues in their series work (e.g., Guan et al., 2008, 2009; Peters et al., 2007; Weber et al., 2008). Peters et al. (2007) analyzed the effects of changes in Chinas technology, economic structure, urbanization, and lifestyles on CO2 emissions. According to them, 32% of Chinas emission was embodied in exports and 34% avoided by imports in 2002. Weber et al. (2008) rst presented a systematic study on the contribution of exports to Chinas CO2 emissions during 19872005. Around one-third of Chinese emissions were estimated due to production of exports in 2005 (Weber et al., 2008). Guan et al. (2008) assessed the driving forces of Chinas CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2030 are the household consumption, capital investment and growth in exports. Wang and Watson (2007) valuated the net exports as up to 23% of the total CO2 emissions in China in 2004. Zhang (2010) adopted the Ghosh inputoutput model to investigate supply-side structure effect on production-related carbon emissions in China from 1992 to 2005. Lin and Sun (2010) reported that China is a net exporter of CO2 emissions in 2005. Using 1997 inputoutput table and purchasing power parity index, Yan and Yang (2010) estimated that 10.0326.54% of Chinas annual CO2 emissions are embodied in Chinas exports, in contrast to only 4.409.05% in Chinas imports during 19972007. The CO2 emissions embodied in bilateral trade such as ChinaJapan (Liu et al., 2010), ChinaUS (Shui and Harriss, 2006; Xu, et al., 2009; Guo et al., 2010), ChinaUK (Li and Hewitt, 2008) were also studied. The embodiment of all the main GHG emissions in terms of CO2, CH4, and N2O, both distinctively and as a whole, in the Chinese economy by its statistical industrial sectors and nal use categories have been systematically accounted by Chen and his fellows in their multi-scale ecological inputoutput analysis of

environmental emissions and resources use: in his doctoral dissertation Zhou (2008) presented two sets of databases for embodiment intensity of GHG emissions, one for Chinese economy 1992 under the Material Product System (MPS) for planed economies of the socialist Soviet style and another for Chinese economy 2002 under the System of National Accounts (SNA) for marketing economies; Chen et al. (2010) accounted the GHG emission embodiment in Chinese economy 2005; Zhou et al. (2010) provided the GHG embodiment intensity in the regional urban economy of Beijing 2002. The target of the present work is to present a GHG emission inventory by economic sector in 2007 covering main emission sources including energy production, fuel combustion, industrial processes, agricultural activities, waste treatment, etc., and to systematically reveal the GHG emission embodiment in nal consumption and international trade of the Chinese economy, with the most recently available inputoutput table and relevant environmental resource statistics.

2. Methodology and data 2.1. Direct emission estimate In this study, taken into consideration are all the three main GHG emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O, with CO2 due to fuel combustion and industrial processes for raw chemicals, nonmetal mineral products, smelting and pressing for ferrous and nonferrous metals; CH4 from remarkable sources as agricultural activities (manure management, enteric fermentation, rice cultivation, eld burning of plant residues), coal mining, oil and natural gas leakage, fossil fuel burning, industrial wastewater, domestic sewage and municipal solid waste treatment; and N2O from fuel combustion, agricultural activities (manure management, planting soils, eld burning of plant residues), and industrial processes. The calculation of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion is based on the energy consumption data and the emission factors of various fuels with different processes. The energy consumption data source from CESY (2008), with Energy Balance Sheet in 2007 in raw units, Industrial Final Energy Consumption in 2007 in raw units, and Net Caloric Values of all energy sources. Based on the quantity of various types of fossil fuel consumptions in 2007, data processing for energy-related emissions can be referred to Peters et al. (2006), with the adoption of CO2 emission factors by IPCC (2006). In addition to the combustion of fuels, the production processes of cement, ammonia, calcium carbide, soda ash, glass, iron and steel also cause considerable CO2 emissions. For CO2 emissions from industrial processes, the data of industrial products can be found in CSY (2008), CIESY (2008) and other sources, and corresponding emission factors are also adopted from IPCC (2006) and Peters et al. (2006). As to non-CO2 emissions, previous researches about CH4 and N2O emission factors of different sources are reviewed, and specic emission factors are adopted to suit the Chinese situation. Since some specic emission factors are not available, the default emission factors provided in IPCC (2006) are adopted directly. As the direct calculation of some other emissions is difcult, as a preliminary approximation, appropriate assumptions associated with some recent studies for CH4 and N2O emissions will be reasonably made. 2.2. Inputoutput analysis and emission embodiment For the inputoutput table in China, the basic row balance can be expressed as X AX FX m 1

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where X is the total output, in terms of a column vector; A is the technology coefcients matrix or direct requirement coefcient matrix to describe the relationship between all sectors of the economy, of which the element is Aij Zij/Xj, with Zij and Xj standing for the input from Sector j to Sector i (really from domestic Sector j and from import as virtually assigned corresponding to domestic Sector j) and the total output of Sector j, respectively; AX represents the intermediate use; F is the nal demand including rural and urban households consumption, government consumption, gross capital formation, export, and others, and Xm is the imports, in terms of a column vector. Then with the identity matrix I, we have FX m XAX IAX 2

2.3. Data sources and aggregated inputoutput table Most of relevant environmental resources and economic data are adopted or derived from the recently issued ofcial statistical yearbooks, such as China Agriculture Yearbook (CAY, 2008), China Energy Statistical Yearbook (CESY, 2008), China Environment Yearbook (CEY, 2008), China Industry Economics Statistical Yearbook (CIESY, 2008), China Statistical Yearbook (CSY, 2008), and other databases such as BGS (2009), FAO (2009). The Chinese inputoutput table of 2007 covering 42 sectors in total (NBS, 2009) is adopted, as the most recently available. For GHG emissions embodied in nal consumption and international trade studies, availability of energy consumption data from CESY (2008) for CO2 emission calculation and other relative data such as wastewater emissions from CEY (2008) for CH4 emission calculation imposes a constraint on how to aggregate the economic sectors for input output analysis. For example, though the original inputoutput table with 42 sectors covers 16 service sectors, only 3 service sectors (i.e., Transport, Storage, Postal and Telecommunications Services, Wholesale, Retail Trade, hotels, Catering Service and Other Service Activities) are covered in the China Energy Statistical Yearbook (CESY, 2008). To comply with relevant environmental resources data, the 42 sectors covered in the inputoutput table of China 2007 are aggregated into 26 sectors as listed in Table 1 to compose a revised inputoutput table for Chinese economy 2007 (Zhang and Chen, 2010a).

Due to lack of emission data for imported products, the default method assumes the same embodied emission intensity for both the import and domestic product associated each sector (Weber et al., 2008). Thus the emission balance can be expressed as (Chen et al., 2010; Zhou, 2008) Ed eAX eX
d

where E is the total direct emission and e the total embodied (direct plus indirect) emission intensity, in terms of a row vector. Promptly, Ed eXAX eFX m 4

With Eq. (2), the embodied emission intensity is derived as

3. Direct emissions 3.1. Carbon dioxide Fuel mix consumed by each economic sector can be used to estimate direct CO2 emissions. Fossil fuels are classied into

e Ed FX m 1
Ed IAX1 Ed X 1 IA1 ed IA1 5

where ed is the direct emission intensity dened as EdX 1, in terms of a row vector. Evidently, the emission embodied in domestic production, denoted by EEP (Lin and Sun, 2010), is equal to the direct emission of Ed. According to Eq. (4), EEP is the emission induced by the nal demand minus the emission embodied in imports. To reect the emission avoided by import (EAI; Lin and Sun, 2010; Weber et al., 2008), we have the emission embodied in imports (EEI) (OECD et al., 2003; Yan and Yang, 2010), as EEI eX m 6

Table 1 Aggregated sectors for inputoutput analysis. Code Sector 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Farming, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, Fishery and Water Conservancy (Agriculture) Coal Mining and Dressing Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals Mining and Dressing Nonmetal and Other Minerals Mining and Dressing Food Processing, Food Production, Beverage Production, Tobacco Processing Textile Garments and Other Fiber Products, Leather, Furs, Down and Related Products Timber Processing, Bamboo, Cane, Palm and Straw Products, Furniture Manufacturing Papermaking and Paper Products, Printing and Record Medium Reproduction, Cultural, Educational and Sports Articles Petroleum Processing and Coking, Gas Production and Supply Raw Chemical Materials and Chemical Products, Medical and Pharmaceutical Products, Chemical Fiber, Rubber Products, Plastic Products (Chemical Products Related Industry) Nonmetal Mineral Products Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals Metal Products Ordinary Machinery, Equipment for Special Purpose Transportation Equipment Electric Equipment and Machinery Electronic and Telecommunications Equipment Instruments, Meters Cultural and Ofce Machinery Other Industrial Activities Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply Construction Transport, Storage, Postal and Telecommunications Services Wholesale, Retail Trade, Hotels, Catering Service Other Service Activities

The emission embodied in exports (EEE; OECD et al., 2003; Yan and Yang, 2010) can be expressed as EEE eF e 7

where Fe stands for the exported products, in terms of a column vector. The emission embodied in domestic consumption, EEC (Lin and Sun, 2010), represents the production-based emission excluding the emission embodied in exports but including the emission embodied in imports, given as EEC EEP EEIEEE 8

Combining the embodied emissions from exports and imports or domestic production and domestic consumption, the net embodied emission of international trade balance (EEB) can be obtained as (Lin and Sun, 2010; Yan and Yang, 2010) EEB EEPEEC EEEEEI eF e X m 9

A positive EEB means a trade surplus of embodied emission, and negative means decit.

13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

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seventeen sub-categories as raw coal, cleaned coal, other washed coal, briquettes, coke, coke oven gas, other gas, other coking products, crude oil, gasoline, kerosene, diesel oil, fuel oil, LPG, renery gas, other petroleum products, and natural gas. Table 2 lists in detail the energy-related CO2 emissions in China 2007. For the total CO2 emission from fuel combustion, the largest source is raw coal with 69.09% of the total emission, followed by diesel oil with 7.77% and gasoline with 3.25%. CO2 emissions from industrial sectors account for 95.33% of the total energy-related CO2 emission. In addition to the combustion of fuels, some industrial processes also cause considerable CO2 emissions from non-energy use. As shown in Table 3, the CO2 emission from industrial processes amounts to 1663.31 Mt, of which 859.08 Mt is contributed by smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, 683.93 Mt by manufacturing of nonmetal mineral products, 105.78 Mt by manufacturing of raw chemicals, and 14.51 Mt by smelting and pressing of nonferrous metals. Cement production and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals with coke as a reducing agent are the two largest emission sources, accounting for 40.79% and 47.73% of the total CO2 emission from industrial processes, respectively.

Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from all the 26 industrial sectors are detailed in Table 4. The total CO2 emission of the Chinese economy in 2007 amounts to 6389.63 Mt, very close to another recent estimate of 6499.11 Mt accounting for about one fth of the estimated global emission of 30100.48 Mt (Yan and Yang, 2010). Among various emission sources, fuel combustion is the largest with 73.97% of the total emission, of which coal contributes 3699.21 Mt, oil 907.17 Mt and natural gas 119.94 Mt, distinctively. It is noted that industrial processes contribute 1663.31 Mt CO2 emissions, as 26.03% of the total. Among the emission of industrial processes, the largest amount of 859.08 Mt is from smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, following by 683.93 Mt from manufacturing of nonmetal mineral products.

3.2. Methane Zhang and Chen (2010a) provided a detail inventory of CH4 emissions of the Chinese economy in 2007, as shown in Table 5. The total CH4 emission amounts to 39592.70 kt, with 49.68% from fugitive emissions from coal mining and 46.58% from

Table 2 Energy-related carbon oxide emissions. Fuel category Raw coal Cleaned coal Other washed coal Briquettes Coke Coke oven gas Other gas Other coking products Crude oil Gasoline Kerosene Diesel oil Fuel oil LPG Renery gas Other petroleum products Natural gas Total Industrial emissions (Mt) 3328.95 46.08 115.99 0.26 81.16 63.10 51.61 12.06 32.08 148.28 37.35 378.80 129.76 20.86 34.12 125.92 119.94 4726.32 Residential emissions (Mt) 96.51 0.00 9.04 11.95 2.28 4.93 7.37 0.00 0.00 12.71 0.59 6.35 0.00 50.38 0.00 0.00 29.37 231.48 Total (Mt) 3425.46 46.08 125.03 12.21 83.44 68.02 58.98 12.06 32.08 160.99 37.94 385.15 129.76 71.24 34.12 125.92 149.31 4957.79 Fraction (%) 69.09 0.93 2.52 0.25 1.68 1.37 1.19 0.24 0.65 3.25 0.77 7.77 2.62 1.44 0.69 2.54 3.01 100.00

Table 3 Carbon oxide emissions from industrial processes. Category Manufacturing of raw chemicals Ammonia Soda ash Calcium carbide Manufacturing of nonmetal mineral products Cement Plain glass Smelting and pressing of ferrous metals Ferrochromium Silicon metal Ferro-unclassied Coke as a reducing agent Smelting and pressing of nonferrous metals Coke as a reducing agent Total Quantity (Mt) CO2 emissions (Mt) 105.78 77.57 7.32 20.89 683.93 678.54 5.39 859.08 1.68 3.50 60.00 793.89 14.51 14.51 1663.31 Fraction (%) 6.36 4.66 0.44 1.26 41.12 40.79 0.32 51.65 0.10 0.21 3.61 47.73 0.87 0.87 100.00

51.71 17.65 14.82 1361.17 26.96 1.30 0.81 15.00 256.09 4.68

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agricultural activities. Among the emission of 18440.64 kt due to agricultural activities, 9379.12 kt is from enteric fermentation and manure management of livestock and poultry, and 8400.00 kt from rice cultivation. The waste also emits 1401.81 kt CH4 by sector. As a minor source of methane emissions, fuel combustion contributes 81.97 kt, accounting for only 0.21% of the total.

3.3. Nitrous oxide Though the emission of N2O is far less than those of CO2 and CH4 by mass, the global warming potential of N2O is stupendously greater than that of CO2 by orders of magnitude. Direct N2O emissions from remarkable sources as agricultural activities, fuel combustion and industrial processes are estimated. Using the emission factors of Zhou et al. (2007), N2O emissions associated with manure management are estimated to be 214.12 kt (see Table 6). Pigs contribute the most in N2O emissions from manure management, accounting for 29.79% in the total, followed by the goats, non-dairy cattle, sheep, and chicken. Comparable to some previous estimates (Yan et al., 2003; Zheng et al., 2004), annual synthetic fertilizer-induced N2O emissions in Chinese croplands increased from 78.50 kt N2O-N in 1980 to 250.00 kt N2O-N in 2000 (Zou et al., 2010). According to CSY (2008), the amount of fertilizer use in China increased slightly during 20002007. To suit Chinas situation, adopted here is the estimate by Zou et al. (2010), i.e., 392.86 kt of the total fertilizerinduced N2O emissions in 2007. Incomplete combustion of agricultural crop residues will release N2O and other compounds. Field burning of agricultural crop residues to accumulate the fertility in the cropland is a notable source of N2O emissions in China. According to Zhang and Chen (2010a), 145.07 Mt crop residues for the year 2007 are discarded directly through burning in the eld. Then with the emission factor of straw combustion, 4.00 kg/TJ, adopted from Bhattachcharya and Abdul Salam (2002), the N2O emission from eld burning is estimated to be 7.99 kt. The industrial processes responsible for N2O emissions are mainly of nitric acid and adipic acid productions. Based on the outputs of nitric acid and adipic acid (CIESY, 2008) and the N2O emission factors (IPCC, 2006), N2O emissions from the main industrial processes can be estimated to be 74.55 kt, as presented in Table 7. The data of fossil fuels consumed in every sector can be found in CESY (2008). The default nitrous oxide emission factors of fuel utilization are referred to IPCC (2006), and the energy use account to Peters et al. (2006). For 2007, the N2O emission from fuel combustion by sector totals 68.72 kt. The total N2O emission from all the 26 industrial sectors amounts to 758.24 kt. Among various emission sources, the agricultural activities result in the largest emission amount, 81.11% of the total, which is due to massive N2O emissions from

Table 4 Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions by source. Emission source CO2 emission (Mt) 4726.32 3699.21 907.17 119.94 Fraction (%) 73.97 57.90 14.19 1.88 26.03 1.66 10.70 13.44 0.23 100.00

Energy-related Coal Oil Natural Gas

Industrial processes 1663.31 Manufacturing of raw chemicals 105.78 Manufacturing of nonmetal mineral 683.93 products Smelting and pressing of ferrous metals 859.08 Smelting and pressing of nonferrous metals 14.51 Total emissions 6389.63

Table 5 Anthropogenic methane emissions by source (Zhang and Chen, 2010a). Emission source 1. Agriculture activities Enteric fermentation Manure management Rice cultivation Field burning of agricultural residues 2. Fugitive emissions Coal mining Oil and natural gas systems 3. Fossil fuel combustion 4. Waste Municipal solid waste Industrial wastewater Domestic sewage Total emissions CH4 emission (kt) 18440.64 8366.18 1012.94 8400.00 661.52 19668.28 19409.97 258.31 81.97 1401.81 1201.51 127.73 72.57 39592.70 Fraction (%) 46.58 21.13 2.56 21.22 1.67 49.68 49.02 0.65 0.21 3.54 3.03 0.32 0.18 100.00

Table 6 Nitrous oxide emissions from manure management. Category Non-dairy cattle Dairy cattle Buffalo Sheep Goats Camels Pigs Horses Asses Mules Rabbits Chicken Ducks Geese Turkeys Total Census population (104 head) 7885.60 1218.91 1490.30 14228.20 14336.50 24.20 43989.46 702.77 689.14 298.45 22182.12 451161.30 75216.20 30284.10 16.30 Emission factors (g/head/a) 404.00 358.00 408.00 209.00 231.00 770.00 145.00 770.00 770.00 770.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 15.00 48.00 N2O emission (kt) 31.86 4.36 6.08 29.74 33.12 0.19 63.78 5.41 5.31 2.30 1.11 22.56 3.76 4.54 0.01 214.12

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cropland and manure management. Industrial processes also contribute 9.83% of the total N2O emission. Further details are presented in Table 8. 3.4. Total emissions Direct GHG emissions of China in 2007 by emission type and sector category are shown in Table 9. By the commonly referred IPCC global warming potentials (CO2:CH4:N2O1:21:310), the estimated total direct GHG emission amounts to 7456.12 Mt CO2-eq
Table 7 Nitrous oxide emissions from industrial processes. Industrial process Quantity (104 t) Emission factor (kg/t) N2O emission (kt) Nitric acid Adipic acid Total 200.90 21.50 5.00 300.00 10.05 64.50 74.55

in 2007, of which CO2 contributes 6389.62, CH4 831.45, and N2O 235.05 Mt. As shown in Fig. 1 for the total emission structure, energy-related CO2 emissions comprise 63.39%, the other CO2 emissions 22.31%, and non-CO2 emissions 14.30%. For the CO2 emission, direct emission of Sector 22 (Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply) amounts to 2736.94 Mt, up to 42.83% of the total, following by those of Sector 14 (Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals) and Sector 13 (Nonmetal Mineral Products), accounting for 17.17% and 16.07%, respectively. Sector 2 (Coal Mining and Dressing) accounts for 49.03% of the total CH4 emission, and Sector 1 (Agriculture) 46.58%. The leading N2O emission sector is Sector 1 (Agriculture), accounting for 81.27% of the total N2O emission, followed by Sector 12 (Chemical Products Related Industry) for 10.18%, and Sector 22 for 5.81%.

Methane 11.15%
Table 8 Anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions by source. Emission source 1. Fossil fuel combustion 2. Agriculture activities Manure management Cropland Field burning of agricultural residues 3. Industrial processes Nitric acid Adipic acid Total emissions N2O emission (kt) 68.72 614.97 214.12 392.86 7.99 74.55 10.05 64.50 758.24 Fraction (%) 9.06 81.11 28.24 51.81 1.05 9.83 1.33 8.51 100.00

Nitrous oxide 3.15%

Other carbon dioxide 22.31%

Energy-related carbon dioxide 63.39%

Fig. 1. The components of GHG emissions.

Table 9 Direct greenhouse gas emissions by emission type and by sector. Sector 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 Total CO2 (Mt) 107.63 90.69 47.01 9.14 9.34 46.89 31.93 7.08 7.22 31.68 144.62 342.77 1026.86 1097.20 10.70 38.97 18.15 6.52 5.96 0.90 6.28 2736.94 50.00 388.12 53.88 73.14 6389.62 CH4 (Mt CO2-eq) 387.32 407.67 5.47 0.04 0.01 0.57 0.17 0.06 0.02 0.88 0.14 0.54 0.13 0.18 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.77 6.62 4.79 4.61 11.20 831.45 N2O (Mt CO2-eq) 191.03 0.47 0.10 0.04 0.04 0.24 0.16 0.03 0.04 0.16 0.47 23.92 1.57 1.16 0.04 0.16 0.07 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.03 13.65 0.16 1.04 0.19 0.23 235.05 Total GHGs (Mt CO2-eq) 685.98 498.83 52.57 9.22 9.40 47.70 32.26 7.17 7.28 32.73 145.23 367.23 1028.55 1098.54 10.76 39.16 18.25 6.55 5.99 0.91 6.46 2751.36 56.77 393.94 58.68 84.57 7456.12 Fraction (%) 9.20 6.69 0.71 0.12 0.13 0.64 0.43 0.10 0.10 0.44 1.95 4.93 13.79 14.73 0.14 0.53 0.24 0.09 0.08 0.01 0.09 36.90 0.76 5.28 0.79 1.13 100.00

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1000.00 900.00

Direct emission intensities (g CO2 -eq/Yuan)

800.00 700.00 600.00 500.00 400.00 300.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 2 4

Energy-related carbon dioxide Other carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide

10

12

14 16 Sector

18

20

22

24

26

Fig. 2. Direct GHG emission intensities by emission type.

Responsible for 81.32% of the total GHG emissions are the ve sectors numbered 22, 14, 13, 1, and 2. Sector 22 is the largest emitter with 36.90% of the total GHG emission, mainly due to massive CO2 emissions from coal combustion to produce electricity. Owing to massive CO2 emissions from fuel combustion and industrial processes, Sectors 14 and 13 contribute 14.73% and 13.79% of the total GHG emission, respectively. Different to above sectors, Sector 1, accounting for 9.20% of the total GHG emission, has massive CH4 and N2O emissions. CH4 is also the dominated GHG in Sector 2 which contributes 6.69% to the total GHG emission. Direct emission intensity indicates the direct emission per Yuan of industrial output. As shown in Fig. 2, the direct GHG emission intensity of Sector 22 (873.84 g CO2-eq/Yuan) is much larger than those of the other sectors, owing to the high energyrelated CO2 emission intensity. Prominently, CH4 emissions from coal mining dominate the direct GHG emission intensity of Sector 2, which has a direct emission intensity of 517.19 g CO2-eq/Yuan, only less than that of Sector 22. Sectors 13 and 14 represent another pattern for high direct GHG emission intensities due to the massive CO2 emissions from industrial processes, with direct GHG emission intensities of 451.03 and 179.81 g CO2-eq/Yuan, respectively. CH4 and N2O emissions are the main emission types in Sector 1, with a direct GHG emission intensity of 140.30 g CO2eq/Yuan.

basically induced by indirect emissions due to inter-industrial input, with no remarkable direct emissions. Therefore, the picture of systems embodied emissions as reected by the inputoutput model is quite different from that of the direct end emissions. The embodied GHG emission intensity can be further divided by the emission type. Fig. 4 presents the embodied GHG emission intensities by emission types of energy-related carbon dioxide, other carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide for all the industries as a histogram. The shares of CH4 emission intensities are especially high in Sectors 1 and 2. Embodied GHG emission intensities of many industries are dominated by the embodied CO2 emission intensity, except for Sectors 1 and 2. CO2 emissions from industrial processes share important proportions in the manufacturing industries from Sectors 13 to 18. Fig. 5 shows the contribution of the direct CO2 emission from fuel combustion in Sector 22 (Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply) to the embodied emission intensities of CO2 and GHGs by sector. The embodied GHG emission intensities of most manufacturing and service sectors are highly related to this direct emission which accounts for around one half of the embodied CO2 emission intensities in most sectors. This is due to Chinas coal-dominated energy structure and coal-dominated electricity system. In 2007, 69.50% of total energy use and 82.85% of total electricity output are coal based (CESY, 2008). 4.2. Emissions embodied in nal consumption

4. Embodied emissions 4.1. Embodied emission intensity As illustrated in Fig. 3 for the embodied GHG emission intensities of the 26 sectors in Chinese economy 2007, Sector 22 holds the top volume of 1614.81 g CO2-eq/Yuan, followed by Sectors 13 and 2 of 887.70 and 832.57 g CO2-eq/Yuan, respectively, with comparable direct and indirect emission intensities. For all the other sectors except Sector 1, the direct intensity is notably less than the indirect intensity. More evidently, for the 17 sectors numbered 410, 1521, 23, 25, and 26, the embodied intensity is

The total GHG emission embodied in domestic production (EEP) and that embodied in domestic consumption (EEC) are accounted as 7456.12 and 6866.33 Mt CO2-eq, respectively. The EEP exceeds the EEC by 9.21%. As shown in Fig. 6 for the distribution of GHG emissions embodied in domestic consumption (EEC), Sector 23 (Construction) holds the top embodied GHG emission. Chinas rapidly expanding infrastructure construction has a signicant impact on embodied GHG emissions, as construction activities need a great deal of direct and indirect industrial inputs (e.g., cement, electricity, and metal products). According to Jiang and Tovey (2009), the energy consumption in the Chinas building

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1800.00 1600.00 1400.00 1200.00 1000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Sector 18 20 22 24 26

Embodied emission intensity (g CO 2 -eq/Yuan)

Direct Indirect

Fig. 3. Embodied (direct plus indirect) GHG emission intensity by sector.

1800.00 1600.00

GHG emission intensity (g CO 2 -eq/Yuan)

1400.00 1200.00 1000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 2 4

Energy-related carbon dioxide Other carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide

10

12

14 16 Sector

18

20

22

24

26

Fig. 4. Emission component of the embodied GHG emission intensity by sector.

sector accounts for about one quarter of the total energy use, which includes the direct energy use in maintaining thermal comfort and normal operation and indirect embedded energy use associated with the construction of building and including the material manufacture and transport of those materials to site. Other sectors such as Sector 16 (Ordinary Machinery, Equipment for Special Purpose), Sector 17 (Transportation Equipment), Sector 18 (Electric Equipment and Machinery), and Sector 26 (Other Service Activities), which have prominent peaks on emissions (mainly CO2 emissions) embodied in both domestic production and domestic consumption, are either directly involved in manufacturing and processing of raw materials or major consumers of industrial products. Sector 1 (Agriculture) and Sector 6 (Food Processing, Food

Production, Beverage Production, and Tobacco Processing) are also with massive embodied CH4 emissions due to the grain and meat production to meet the rising living level and westernized lifestyle in Chinas households. Table 10 illustrates the economy-wide balance of monetary ows, GHG emissions, CO2 emissions, and energy-related CO2 emissions. In the whole, household consumption is responsible for 24.45% of the total GHG emission embodied in the nal demand. The embodied GHG emission in urban consumption is 2.97 times of that in rural consumption. It is noted that rural and urban consumptions are non-CO2 intensive to some extent. The non-CO2 emissions comprise 26.71% of the total embodied GHG emission for the rural consumption and 19.48% for the urban

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Contribution to embodied CO2 emission intensity

100.00%

Contribution to embodied GHG emission intensity

80.00%

60.00%

40.00%

20.00%

0.00% 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Sector 18 20 22 24 26

Fig. 5. Contribution of energy-related CO2 emission by Sector 22 to the embodied emission intensities of CO2 and GHGs by sector.

3000.00 2700.00 2400.00 2100.00

Energy-related carbon dioxide Other carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide

EEC (Mt CO 2 -eq)

1800.00 1500.00 1200.00 900.00 600.00 300.00 0.00 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Sector 18 20 22 24 26

Fig. 6. GHG emissions embodied in domestic consumption (EEC) by sector.

consumption. This can be explained by the main consumption of agricultural products and foodstuff in households. Prominently, gross capital formation has the highest share in both monetary ows and emissions in the nal demand. GHG emissions embodied in gross capital formation reach to 4191.00 Mt CO2-eq, up to 42.22% of the total embodied emission. This is due to the intensive investment in China, accounting for 42.33% of the total GDP in 2007 (CSY, 2008). Moreover, most of the investment in industry sector is owed into infrastructure construction and heavy industry such as energy-intensive

industrial production for iron and steel, cement, and electrolysis aluminum (CSY, 2008). In many developing countries such as China, capital investments such as in infrastructure are an important motor for economic growth (Peters et al., 2007), which result in increasing embodied GHG emissions through the demand of electricity, cement, steel, nonferrous metals, etc. In contrast, in typical developed countries the proportion of capital formation is much smaller, such as in Finland 1999 with GHG emissions of only 11% embodied in capital formation (Maenpaa and Siikavirta, 2007).

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Table 10 Economy-wide balance of monetary and emission ows. Money 104 Yuan Total production Domestic (GDP) Imports Total Final demand Rural Urban Government Gross capital formation Exports Others Total Fraction (%) GHG Mt CO2-eq Fraction CO2 Mt Fraction (%) Energy-related CO2 Mt Fraction (%)

2.66E + 09 7.40E + 08 3.40E + 09 2.43E + 08 7.22E + 08 3.52E + 08 1.11E + 09 9.55E + 08 1.86E + 07 3.40E + 09

78.23 21.77 100.00 7.15 21.24 10.35 32.62 28.09 0.55 100.00

7456.12 2470.40 9926.52 610.68 1816.17 529.28 4191.00 3060.18 280.80 9926.52

75.11 24.89 100.00 6.15 18.30 5.33 42.22 30.83 2.83 100.00

6389.63 2185.52 8575.15 447.59 1462.45 462.53 3806.87 2696.79 301.08 8575.14

74.51 25.49 100.00 5.22 17.05 5.39 44.39 31.45 3.51 100.00

4726.32 1673.62 6399.94 391.99 1265.75 395.00 2561.32 2021.73 235.85 6399.94

73.85 26.15 100.00 6.12 19.78 6.17 40.02 31.59 3.69 100.00

Exports

Gross capital formation

Government

Urban

Rural

Imports

Domestic production

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

Total embodied GHG emission intensity (g CO 2 -eq/Yuan)

Fig. 7. Total embodied GHG emission intensities by nal demand category.

The total embodied GHG intensities for the nal demand categories are shown in Fig. 7, against those for import and production. It is noted that gross capital formation is GHG intensive, with the largest GHG intensity among different nal use categories. The shares of imports, gross capital formation and exports in GHG, CO2, and energy-related CO2 emissions are higher than those in monetary ows, as shown in Table 10, due to the higher embodiment intensities.

4.3. Emissions embodied in international trade As illustrated in Fig. 8, the GHG emission embodied in Chinas exports (EEE) is 3060.18 Mt CO2-eq, in magnitude up to 41.04% of the total direct emission. Of the total EEE, 66.07% is due to the energy-related CO2 emission (2021.73 Mt), 22.06% due to other CO2 emissions (675.06 Mt), and 11.87% due to other GHG emissions. Comparable results have been given in previous studies. According to Peters and Hertwich (2008), China exported 24% of its CO2 emissions in 2001. Peters et al. (2007) found that 32% of

Chinas emissions were embodied in exports in 2002. Wang and Watson (2007) gave net exports from China in 2004 accounting for 23% of the total CO2 emission in China. Weber et al. (2008) estimated that 33% of Chinas domestic CO2 emissions were in the production of exports in 2005. Lin and Sun (2010) reported that about 44% of Chinas CO2 emissions were embodied in the exports in 2005. However, China also avoids emitting 2470.40 Mt CO2-eq GHGs (EAI or EEI in this paper) as a result of importing goods from the rest of the world. As a net exporter of embodied GHG emissions, the Chinese economy has net GHG emissions of 589.78 Mt CO2-eq embodied in international trade. Since the calculation of the GHG emission embodied in import is based on the assumptions that the imported products have the same emission intensities as those produced in China by coal-dominated carbon intensive energy, the real volume of GHG emissions embodied in import would be much lower, as concretely addressed by Peters and Hertwich (2008). On the sectoral basis, Table 11 shows the distribution of GHG emissions embodied in exports (EEE) and imports (EEI) by sector. The largest GHGs-export sector is Sector 19 (Electronic and

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8000.00 7000.00

GHG emission embodiments (Mt)

6000.00 5000.00 4000.00 3000.00 2000.00 1000.00 0.00 EEP EEC EEE

Energy-related carbon dioxide Other carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide

EEI

EEB

Fig. 8. GHG emissions embodied in production, consumption and international trade.

Table 11 Distribution of embodied GHG emissions in international trade by sector. Sector EEE Emission embodiment (Mt CO2-eq) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 17.92 19.46 5.08 3.43 4.90 43.13 231.44 125.42 65.77 65.02 28.35 302.15 131.71 321.67 157.92 206.27 102.13 260.93 574.38 91.60 30.05 10.51 17.84 115.17 69.70 58.23 Rank EEI Emission embodiment (Mt CO2-eq) 62.65 16.00 168.69 170.03 9.79 35.67 23.05 13.46 7.34 23.79 53.53 380.09 33.49 269.57 25.95 253.25 93.45 131.32 437.92 111.19 36.53 2.90 9.66 38.65 7.69 54.74 Rank

21 20 24 26 25 17 5 9 14 15 19 3 8 2 7 6 11 4 1 12 18 23 22 10 13 16

10 20 6 5 22 15 19 21 25 18 12 2 16 3 17 4 9 7 1 8 14 26 23 13 24 11

Telecommunications Equipment) with 18.77% of the total emission embodied in exports, followed by Sector 14 (Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals, 10.51% of the total), Sector 12 (Chemical Products Related Industry, 9.87%), Sector 18 (Electric Equipment and Machinery, 8.53%), Sector 7 (Textile, 7.56%), and other manufacturing industries. This is in contrast to the ordering of emissions embodied in the imports by sector. Sectors 19 and 12 are the leading GHGs-import sectors, with 17.73% and 15.39% of the total emission avoided by imports, respectively, followed by

Sector 14 (10.91% of the total), Sector 16 (Ordinary Machinery, Equipment for Special Purpose, 10.25%), Sector 4 (Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals Mining and Dressing), and Sector 3 (Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction). Fig. 9 further presents the emission component of GHG emissions embodied in exports (EEE) by sector. In Chinas exports, energy-related CO2 emissions comprise about two thirds of GHG emissions in most manufacturing and service sectors. CO2 emissions from industrial processes also contribute about 3040% of the total GHG emission in some manufacturing and construction sectors such as Sectors 13, 14, and 23. In contrast, non-CO2 emissions account for about 4060% of the total GHG emission in Sectors 1, 2, and 6. Fig. 10 shows the distribution of the net embodied GHG emission of international trade balance (EEB) by sector. All the 26 sectors can be categorized into two groups: the sectors with positive net emissions are the net embodied GHG emission exporters, while those with negative emissions are net embodied GHG emission importers. In the rst group, Sector 7 (Textile) is the largest net embodied GHG-export sector, accounting for 35.33% of the total EEB, followed by Sector 19 (Electronic and Telecommunications Equipment), Sector 15 (Metal Products), Sector 18 (Electric Equipment and Machinery) and other manufacturing industries. In the second group, Sector 3 (Petroleum and Natural Gas Extraction) and Sector 4 (Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals Mining and Dressing) are the top two sectors of net embodied GHG emission importers. The total domestic outputs of Sector 3 and 4 cannot satisfy the domestic production demand. A major part of the oil supply for Sector 3 belongs to imports. It is well-known that the proportion of imported oil in China has exceeded a half of the total use. For Sector 4, iron ore is the major raw material for the iron and steel industry, with 383.09 Mt iron ore sand or concentrated iron ore imported (CSY, 2008).

5. Concluding remarks A concrete GHG emission inventory of Chinese economy 2007 is presented to cover all the main anthropogenic sources of CO2,

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100.00%

Energy-related carbon dioxide Methane

Other carbon dioxide Nitrous oxide

80.00%

Emission component of EEE

60.00%

40.00%

20.00%

0.00% 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Sector 18 20 22 24 26

Fig. 9. Emission component of GHG emissions embodied in exports (EEE) by sector.

250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00

EEB (Mt CO 2 -eq)

50.00 0.00 2 -50.00 -100.00 -150.00 -200.00 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Sector 18 20 22 24 26

Fig. 10. Distribution of the net embodied GHG emission of international trade balance (EEB) by sector.

CH4, and N2O, and a detailed inputoutput analysis for the GHG emission embodiment in nal consumption and international trade is carried out. The estimated total direct GHG emission amounts to 7456.12 Mt CO2-eq by the commonly referred IPCC global warming potentials, with 63.39% from energy-related CO2, 22.31% from non-energy-related CO2, 11.15% from CH4 and 3.15% from N2O. The non-CO2 emissions of CH4 and N2O amount to 1066.50 Mt CO2-eq, as one seventh of the total GHG emission. Prominently, the CH4 emission of 831.45 Mt CO2-eq is in magnitude higher than the amount of energy-related CO2 emissions of some developed countries in the same year

of 2007, such as 523.0 Mt of UK, 572.9 Mt of Canada, and 798.4 Mt of Germany (IEA, 2009). The essential importance of methane mitigation has been stressed by Zhang and Chen (2010a). On the sectoral basis, the ve primary sectors of the Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply, Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals, Nonmetal Mineral Products, Agriculture, and Coal Mining and Dressing are responsible for 81.32% of the total GHG emissions with different GHG emission structures. The sector of Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply is the largest GHG emitter with 36.90% of the total GHG emission, mainly due to CO2

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emissions from coal combustion to produce electricity. The two sectors of Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous and Nonferrous Metals and Nonmetal Mineral Products are the main emitters of non-energy-related CO2, contributing 14.73% and 13.79% of the total GHG emission, respectively. The sector of Agriculture, accounting for 9.20% of the total, has massive CH4 and N2O emissions. CH4 is the dominated GHG emission in the sector of Coal Mining and Dressing, contributing 6.69% of the total GHG emission. In general, the demands of coal-electricity and heavy industrial products such as steel and cement determine the structure of emission embodiment to an essential extent. Embodied GHG emission intensities in most manufacturing and service sectors are highly related to the direct CO2 emission from fuel combustion in the sector of Electric Power/Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply. The sector of Construction holds the top GHG emissions embodied in both domestic production and domestic consumption. Household consumption is responsible for 24.45% of the total GHG emission embodied in the nal demand. However, the GHG emission embodied in gross capital formation, 42.22% of the total embodied emission, is the largest in the nal demand categories. China is a net exporter of embodied GHG emissions, with a remarkable share of direct emission induced by international trade. The GHG emission embodied in Chinas exports is 3060.18 Mt CO2-eq, in magnitude up to 41.04% of the direct domestic emission. Chinas textile products, industrial raw materials, and primary machinery and equipment products exports have a signicant impact on embodied GHG emissions. Much more effort has to be made to adjust industrial structure characterized by the exports of low value added products at the expense of the environment. Meanwhile, with the huge international trade surplus, as 261.83 billion US dollars in 2007 (CSY, 2008), increasing import of industrial products in China will help to avoid GHG emissions in domestic production, and the developed countries such as U.S. need to encourage the export of high advanced technology to China for global emission reduction and mitigation (Shui and Harriss, 2006; Zhang, 2007; Zhang, 2009).

Acknowledgments This study has been supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (Grant no. 10972009) and in part by the National Key Program for Basic Research (973 Program, Grant no. 2005CB724204). Very helpful comments by the anonymous reviewer are highly appreciated.

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